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analyst75

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  1. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD went upwards 200 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1350 before the current shallow retracement. Price may be able to target the resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450 this week, but bulls might encounter some challenges doing this. There is a possibility of a pullback, which might bring another opportunity to go long at a lower price or bring an end to the current bullish outlook on the market. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF went in the opposite direction to EURUSD, moving briefly below the support level at 0.9550, and then closing at 0.9600 on Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means it may continue trending downwards, on the condition that EURUSD would continue trending upwards; otherwise a rally would ensue. A show of weakness in EURUSD and CHF (for CHF could experience some weakness against the majors this week) would help to bring about a rally in USDCHF. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD went upwards from Tuesday to Friday last week, pulling back by over 130 pips on Friday, and closing above the accumulation territory at 1.3050. The bearish outlook remains in place, unless price goes upwards by at least, another 300 pips from the current location. Without this condition being fulfilled, GBPUSD might experience a further pullback, which might possibly be aided by a bearish movement on GBPCAD (since CAD would rally against other pairs this week). GBPCAD and GBPUSD sometimes get positively correlated. At times, it is helpful to know how conditions surrounding other pairs and crosses affect the instrument we focus on. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This pair declined 170 pips on August 15 and 16, and then moved sideways for the rest of the week, all in the context of a downtrend. The outlook on the pair, plus other JPY pairs, continues to be bearish (though CADJPY could rally when CAD gains stamina). This week, the demand levels at 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00 might be tested. The demand levels at 100.00 and 99.50 were tested last week, but price could not stay below them. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This cross has been consolidating for the last two weeks; an event which has brought about a neutral bias in the near term (although the bias is bearish in the long-term). Further sideways movement would continue to emphasize the neutral bias, until there is a breakout this week or next, which would most probably favor bears, as price goes towards the demand zones at 112.50, 112.00 and, especially 111.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Now I am devoted to Forex and fully focused on developing my trading strategy to become a full-time trader.” – Lukasz (source: Tradimo)
  2. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 15 “It seems that these days few traders are interested in trading long-term. The monthly and weekly charts remain relatively unnoticed. Traders are so busy looking at anything and everything from 60 minutes down to 1 minute, that they let beautiful trades slip right by them in the very markets where they are trying so desperately to make a buck… Please keep in mind that the moves you will be seeing are huge on the monthly and weekly charts; and if they last for only a few bars, which is many times better than the moves you are getting on intraday charts.” – Joe Ross (Tradingeducators.com) Name: Tom Baldwin Nationality: American Occupation: Trader/investor Company: Baldwin Group of Companies A TRADER WHO CAN SINGLE-HANDEDLY MOVE THE TREASURY BOND MARKET Tom took a Master’s degree in agribusiness and worked as a meat packer in Ohio. He’d already taken a few trading-related courses at graduate school, based on a friend’s advice, he moved to Chicago. Being a trader and investor, Tom founded the Baldwin Group of companies. He traded the 30-year bond, and he’s recognized as a force to reckon with. He currently serves as Chairman of Baldwin Group Ltd., the parent company of several investment and financial services. Companies in the group include: Baldwin Commodities Corp., a Treasury Bond Futures proprietary trading company, and Baldwin Managed Futures, a CTA. Tom’s career as a trader was a profitable one. Wikipedia say he is also the current owner of Granot Loma, the great American castle on the southern shore of Lake Superior in Marquette County, Michigan. He was inducted into the Futures Hall of Fame in 2009, which was instituted in the year 2005 to honor exceptional contributions to the global futures and options community. What You Need to Know: 1. Tom followed this trend. Period. 2. Trading is a lot of hard work, for one. It’s perseverance. You have to love to do it. Also, in your business, you have to have a total disregard for money. You can’t trade for money. You shouldn’t make money your number one goal in trading. 3. As far as trading is concerned, patience is a virtue. Some people trade too much. They just enter the markets at random and trade anything that moves. So they’ll be forcing trades rather than waiting patiently for their setups to form. Patience is an important trait many people don’t have. Tom believes that patience has been the most difficult thing for him to work on. Although he’s made great strides in the past two years, he still catches himself worrying that the next bull market is going to take off without him. He expects to continue to improve in this area as he continues to gain more experience. 4. Education doesn’t necessarily make you a great trader. Some newbies think the more they know, the better it is. But being smarter can also mean being dumber. More knowledge could make your trading results worse, because what you need to be profitable are simple principles. Many great traders believe that there isn’t anything special about them. They just show up to work everyday and study their asses off. 5. Tom said trading is like any other job. You work hard, put in the time and effort, and make your own luck. 6. For a successful trader, the ego has been put under control. They find it very easy to cut their losses. You don’t need to be self-confident that all trades must go in your favor. Tom has come a long way with this as well, of course, with having a few big winners under his belt would really aid his psychology. This article is ended with the quote below. “Actually, the best traders have no ego. To be a great trader, you have to have a big enough ego only in the sense that you have confidence in yourself. You cannot let ego get in the way of a trade that is a loser; you have to swallow your pride and get out.”
  3. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair consolidated on Monday and went further upwards on Tuesday. Price moved upwards 130 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.1200, to close above the support line at 1.1150. Bulls might push price further upwards this week; however, there is a possibility of a bearish movement on EURUSD, since EUR could become weak versus other majors, save GBP, which is currently weaker than EUR. The current bullish effort would end once price goes below the support line at 1.1050. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish There is a “sell” signal on USDCHF, especially in the near-term. There are support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650, which could be tested this week. Nonetheless, the expected bearish movement on EURUSD might enable USDCHF to stop moving south, and assume a rally that would bring about a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Without EURUSD getting weak this week, USDCHF would have to continue moving southwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish As it was forecast, this market went further south last week, declining by 170 pips and closing below the distribution territory at 1.2950 on Friday. Just like other GBP pairs (except EURGBP), the outlook on the market is bearish for this week, which means that the accumulation territories at 1.2900, 1.2850 and 1.2800 could be tested this week. The only factor that can reverse the current weakness in the market is an expected or unexpected fundamental factor that proves very favorable to GBP or very unfavorable to USD. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish According to expectation, this currency trading instrument was able to maintain its bearishness throughout last week, scuttling bulls’ effort to effect a protracted rally. Whenever price rallied, bears would come in to push it downwards again, thereby preserving the current bearish bias on the market. This week, the bearish bias could continue as price goes for the demand levels at 100.50 and 100.00. On the other hand, a possibility of a strong reversal exists, in case JPY gathers strength. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The movement on EURJPY was essentially flat last week, though that has not overridden the current downtrend. Price would need to consolidate further for another week or two before the bias can turn neutral, otherwise, we would witness a continuation of the southward movement or a temporary reversal that would threaten the current bearish bias. A bullish reversal may occur, but it would not last very long, because of a bearish outlook on JPY pairs, and because EUR itself is expected to be weak this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Good trading habits are an important factor in successful trading.” - Gabriel Grammatidis
  4. “In my experience trading takes a very important and somewhat rare personality trait which is: the ability to see the next logical step and to then get it done. If this ability is lacking you will always be behind.” – Garachen (Source: Elitetrader) Why Is Trading a Good Money-making Vehicle? It’s a level playing field. Everybody is welcome. You don’t have a boss to control you. You need only a PC and Internet connection. You can make money whether the market goes up or down. The more experience you’ve, the better you become. The starting capital is minimal. You’ve great money management flexibility. You stay in control. You choose when to trade and when not to trade. Profits come naturally when you’re away from your system. You can coach others including your family members. There Is Something Intriguing About Trading Most members of the public don’t believe they can trade successfully. They’ve been convinced that they can only give their money to professional funds managers to manage, without knowing that they can do this themselves. Your parents don’t have trading secrets to give you. Your school doesn’t have trading secrets to give you. The society don’t have the secrets to give you. While there are pros who can manage your money successfully, it’s true that when you’ve correct trading methodologies and use them faithfully, you can even do better than the so-called pros in terms of percentage returns. Forex trading is a good business, but many people don’t understand it. It’s controversial because the public opinions about it are unfair and warped. Most members of the public understand other types of business, save Forex. There are ways to make small and consistent profits on monthly basis, which become considerable on annual basis. Since most people don’t have experience and others around them don’t have the knowledge, they’re afraid to get in. The reality is; successful traders are just normal people like me and you. There are good trading systems you can use to make money, and those who use these systems aren’t smarter or better than you in any way. The only difference is that those who use good trading systems have the willingness to attain riches through discipline. Conclusion: Trading is different from investing. As a trader, you buy and sell within days or weeks, but an investor may hold a position for months or years. The greatest market speculators are faithful to strategies that give them an edge. They stick to those strategies when they work and when they don’t work. I pray that your fortitude will not be shaken in trying times. Your true trading potential lies beyond your innate gifts. The article is concluded by this quote: “Trading is not a sin, but trading without knowing what you are doing can lead to a lot of problems. Trading, in and of itself, is not considered as gambling…. However, gambling is considered to be foolish. Trading without adequate knowledge of the markets and self is foolish because, by doing so, you are gambling… There is a certain amount of self-knowledge needed to choose the proper trading method.” – Andy Jordan
  5. EURUSD = Sell EURCAD = Sell EURAUD = Sell EURNZD = Sell EURJPY = Sell EURCHF = Sell EURGBP = Sell NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 lots would be used (0.01 lots for each $2,000). The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met. Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.
  6. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair could not sustain the bullish run it started in the last week of July 2016. Price made a faint bullish effort on Monday and Tuesday, went briefly above the resistance line at 1.1200, reached the weekly high of 1.1231, and then declined 180 pips, to close above the resistance line at 1.1050 (which was tested before the close of the market). Since the bias on the market is bearish, further decline is possible, which may take price towards the support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000; even if there would be a brief reversal following that. For the support line at 1.1000 to be broken to the downside, there is a need for very strong bearish pressures. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Although USDCHF has gone upwards 180 pips since last Wednesday, bears are still very active in the market. For the bias to turn bullish, there is a need for at least, another 200 pips to the upside, which would require a strong bullish pressure. Further upwards movement in the context of a short-term downward is what is anticipated this week. However, the presence of bears ought not to be ignored, for they would take advantage of any opportunity they have, to push price lower. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish On this market, the bias on the 4-hour and daily charts is bearish. The market was flat on Monday, went upwards on Tuesday, went flat again on Wednesday, and then moved south on Thursday and Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and GBP is expected to be weak versus major currencies this week, with a few exceptions. While it is expected that price could go more downwards, it would encounter extremely recalcitrant accumulation territories along the way, which would challenge the current bearish outlook. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish What happened on August 2, 2016, was the only trending movement that was witnessed on USDJPY last week – the rest was consolidation. The market closed on Friday as bulls were beginning to grow impatient with the existing situation; though their impatience would do nothing more than a short-term rally, because the bias on the market is bearish and further bearish movement is anticipated. The demand levels at 101.00, 100.50 and 100.00 would be interesting to watch this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross went south gradually last week, managing to record another decline by 200 pips. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the cross (and also a bearish outlook on JPY pairs), and as a result of this, price is expected to continue moving south by at least 200: either gradually or speedily. Long trades are not advised unless the market situation changes. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Instead of trying to figure out why markets moved, ignore that and look for more trading opportunities!” - Rick Wright
  7. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 14 “My advice to… both strategy creators and investors — is to always have a ‘what-if’ plan. Always know what you're going to do, when the unlikely or unexpected event occurs. You can't anticipate everything in advance, of course — not specifically — but you can generally know in advance how you will handle surprises when they occur. My advice is to be ready for surprises, because they will happen, sooner or later.” - William Gandini (Source: Collective2.com) Name: Jerry Parker Nationality: American Occupation: Trader and portfolios manager Website: Chesapeakecapital.com TRAINED TO BE A SUPER TRADER Jerry was one of the original Turtles trained by Richard Dennis. He’s also the most successful of the Turtles, given his performances in the past and recent times. He’s one of the most successful speculators in the trading industry. When he finished his stint with Richard, he founded his own funds management business, named Chesapeake Capital Corporation. According to the firm’s website, Chesapeake Capital Corporation was founded in 1988. With over 26 years of managing client capital, they are focused, consistent and single-minded in their approach. Chesapeake provides investors uncorrelated returns through consistency in approach across a broad range of global markets and variable market conditions. The firm is regulated in the U.S. by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a Commodity Trading Advisor and Commodity Pool Operator and by the Securities and Exchange Commission as an Investment Adviser. Jerry’s been interviewed on numerous occasions. What You Need to Know: 1. Intelligence alone isn’t enough for trading success. Though a trader may be brilliant, but a high IQ isn’t enough for success, otherwise big companies (like Enron) wouldn’t have crashed as a result of numerous Ivy League schools graduates that were working for them. After all, there are hugely successful companies in the world, whose founders and CEOs aren’t from top schools. It turns out that most successful CEOs attended lesser-known schools. Jerry is quoted as saying: “The Ivies and other A-league schools have a lot of prestige because they’re supposed to open doors and lead to successful careers. But parents who expect the Ivies to ensure their kids’ success are going to be disappointed. The old-boy network isn’t much good in an economy like this. It’s competence that counts.” 2. Trading success is beyond intelligence: What makes Jerry Parker to have had good performance for nearly 3 decades is more than intelligence. When he was a trainee with Dennis, some of his colleagues failed at trading and some of them succeeded at trading. For example, David Ricardo advised many, many years ago, that losses should be cut and profits should be run. This working principle, doesn’t require any intelligence, and it works till tomorrow. 3. Yes, the Turtles, including Jerry, were given trading rules. They treated trading as business. You need trading rules and you need to treat your trading as business. 4. After you get trained for trading, you’ll need to answer for yourself as to whether or not you’ve the ability to succeed on your own. You success has to do with how well you employ principles that work for you. You need to believe you’d make it, and you must be willing to do what would help you. 5. “You’d to be really smart to be hired by Dennis,” says Jerry. Dennis earned $80 million in 1986, but some people thought they couldn’t achieve that. The Turtles were lucky to be trained by a great trader. If you come across a professional who’d help, you’re lucky. 6. Trading competence is not easy to acquire, according to Jerry. He further says: “Trading for the rich, you got in at 7 a.m. and at 2 p.m. you watched the Cubs game.” But once he became a money manager for clients he’d to raise money, hire people, do research, track his performance, and trade. “The degree to which you are successful will be partly because of your buys and sells. But you’re also running a business: hiring, making sure you have good accounting and legal and marketing systems in place.” He said. 7. Jerry’s success is also made possible by other factors, apart from Richard Dennis. Part of those factors are some helpful books on trading, which Jerry cherished. This article is ended with this quote from Jerry: “An honest, humble mentor is the best thing going. Learn from other people. Do the right thing every day, focus on what you’re doing, and let the cards fall where they may.”
  8. AUS200Dominant bias: Bullish AUS200 moved north by over 3700 points in July 2016, as it was anticipated. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the daily and 4-hour charts, emphasizing bulls’ hegemony. In this market, the best trading approach now is to buy short-term pullbacks whenever they happen, providing that a pullback is followed by a bullish candle. This is exactly what happened on July 5, 2016, and it was followed by a nice bullish run. SPX500 Dominant bias: Bullish This market moved upwards in bullish mode between July 4 to 20 (the dip the happened on July 5 being a “buy” opportunities for latecomers). Price then consolidated from July 20 till the end of the month. The consolidation that happened in the last few days of the month has resulted in a “box” between the support line at 2157.0 and the resistance line at 2178.5; and price would need to go out of the box for the trend to continue. Since the outlook on SPX500 is currently bullish (though bears might win before the end of this year), price would continue going upwards when it leaves the box. US30 Dominant bias: Bullish Here, price reached a low of 17709.0 and a high of 18635.0, in July 2016. That was a gain of over 920 points, from trough to peak. However, price threatened to break down last week, forming a bearish signal on the 4-hour chart, while the bias on the daily chart remains bullish. In August, a movement bellow the accumulation territory at 18200.0 would result in a bearish outlook, unless price moves upwards before reaching that accumulation territory. GER30 Dominant bias: Bullish In the last prognosis, the supply level at 10470.8 was our target for last month. From the monthly low of 9301.3, price went up more than 10,500 points, to close the month at 10350.7. While the target for last month has not been reached, it would be reached in August. Price might even be able to go above it, and gain additional 500 points after the initial target has been exceeded. FRA40 Dominant bias: Bullish From July 4 to 7, FRA40 went south, but further southward movement was rejected at the demand zone of 4057.4, after which price went northward by roughly 4000 points. There is an ongoing bullish signal in the market and price is supposed to continue trending upwards in August 2016, reaching the supply zones at 4500.0, 4550.0 and 4650.0 in this month or next.
  9. GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Gold moved upwards in the first few days of July and then began to consolidate to the downside. The downside consolidated was conspicuous from July 13 to 27. But in the last few trading days, price started moving upwards gradually – an action that saves the current bullish bias in the market. Since the bias is bullish, it is normal to expect price to continue going upwards, seeing the downside consolidation in the middle of July as an opportunity to buy. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Just like Gold, Silver also started July 2016 on a bullish note, but began to correct downwards in the middle of the month (especially from July 11 to 27). Price managed to end July on a bullish note, and thus, might continue trending upwards. This is a bull market, in spite of machinations of bears. In August, dips in the market would offer good opportunities to go long at better prices, for bulls might be able to target the resistance levels at 21.0000, 22.5000 and 23.0000. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Dominant Bias: Neutral Bitcoin has become a flat market. Price has been moving sideways for weeks, though it is volatile. This kind of volatility is has not taken the market anywhere, save transient bearish movements, alternated by transient bullish movements, which are nothing significant on higher time horizons. There is currently a struggle between bulls and bears, and price would begin to trend strongly when one group is dominated, i.e. when the market goes out of balance. That is exactly what would happen in August.
  10. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair assumed a bullish journey last week, going upwards 230 pips. Price topped at 1.1195, closing above the support line at 1.1150. There is now a bullish signal in the market, which shows the possibility of price going further upwards. As forecasted in the last article, major pairs (with the exception of GBPUSD) moved more strongly than they did between July 18 to 22. As long as USD remains weak, EURUSD would continue going upwards. In August 2016, EUR would rally against most major pairs, meeting possible challenges only against JPY and (possibly JPY). USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Contrary to expectation, USDCHF declined significantly because USD lost stamina. Although price initially went up by over 90 pips, almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9950, it later suffered a setback. From the high of 0.9949, price move south 300 pips, reaching a weekly low of 0.9635. There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market: Further bearish movement is possible this week, provided USD continues its weakness. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Cable merely went sideways last week – which means the present tight equilibrium phase remains valid. A strong breakout would occur this week or next, which would result in an end to the current equilibrium phase in the market. Normally, there ought to be a movement of 500 pips to the upside or to the downside, for the equilibrium phase to end. In August, GBP would rally versus AUD and NZD, but may experience difficulties in doing so versus JPY (and possibly USD). USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Just as it was forecasted, USDJPY went bearish, going down 450 pips last week. Bulls fought gallantly against the bearish trend that started at the beginning of last week, but they suffered ignominious defeat on Friday. Price is expected to reach the demand levels at 101.50, 101.00 and 100.50 this week, unless some opposition arises as a result of a possible stamina in USD. Selling pressure is also visible on other JPY pairs, and it is worth mentioning that the outlook on JPY pairs is strongly bearish for the month of August 2016. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Just like most other JPY pairs, this currency trading instrument went south on Monday and Tuesday, but bulls managed to halt further southward movement on Wednesday and Thursday. However, bulls gave in to bearish pressure on Friday as price nosedived by 250 pips, closing at 113.94 that day. There is a clean bearish outlook on the market and further southward journey is possible. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Develop and adhere to a system, not random and erratic acts of inconsistent trading.” – Louise Bedford
  11. SUPER TRADING STRATEGIES – TAPPING THE HIDDEN TREASURE IN THE MARKETS “One of the best ways to learn about anything is to read about it. Books, articles. Even just marketing pages. Find out what the pros are doing. Find out what's working for them. And then…” – James Altucher In the last few years I have written three books titled Lessons from Expert Traders (published by Harriman House, May 2013), Learn from the Generals of the Markets (published by ADVFN, May 2014) and What Super Traders Don’t Want You to Know (also published by ADVFN, March 2015). The books profile the best traders and investors in the world – dead and alive. We reveal their stories, trading/investing styles and approaches, plus other things they think and do differently to make them stand out in this extremely competitive, but lucrative industry. The books contain invaluable lessons and secrets that can be used by speculators to bolster their mindset and career in an uncertain world of trading. However, certain readers leave negative reviews (which are normal and deeply appreciated). The biggest reason for most of the negative reviews is that readers who bought the books hoped to find concrete and easy-to-use trading strategies, which are not in the books. Although the books contain tips and tricks that can be used to improve your trading, I think readers also need specific trading methods they can use to tackle the markets. Some of the best trading strategies and methods on this planet can be found in TRADERS’ magazine. I have been writing strategies for them for 6 years. In the past, I tended to ignore requests for strategies, but I have our readers’ best interests in heart, so I decided to find a way to write a book about strategies. I approached TRADERS’ and requested their permission to reproduce some of the strategies I had written for past issues of TRADERS’ magazine. This book is now available only because TRADERS’ was kind enough to allow us to reproduce some of the strategies. If you use the strategies you are expected to make average gains that are bigger than average losses over time. This book contains ten selected strategies for winning the battles on Forex markets. Some of them are also great for the stock and futures markets. You can even try some of them on simulation accounts for a few months, just to see how useful they are. I have had trainees and clients who have applied some of these trading strategies and made decent profits with them. I have personally seen students, trainees, clients and other traders who have been making decent money from the strategies in this book. You too can make decent gains by using the strategies as they were supposed to be used. Conclusion: There are short-term, swing and positions trading strategies in the book. Some are good for part-time traders and some for full-time traders. Simply study the book and choose a strategy that fits you. I would be happy to hear your testimonies as you use one of these strategies to tackle the markets victoriously. This article is ended with the quote below: “For example, think about becoming a Super Trader — and let’s say you could consistently make 2% (or more) in the market each month no matter what the market type was. Think about how that would feel.” – Dr. Van Tharp
  12. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair consolidated to the downside last week, moving south by only 100 pips and closing above the support line at 1.0950 on Friday. There is a “sell” signal in the market and price might test the support lines at 1.0900, 1.0850 and 1.0800 this week, because USD is expected to gain some stamina. Most major pairs did not move significantly last week, but movements in the markets this week would be stronger than the movements last week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, USDCHF was able to maintain its bullishness despite constant threats from bears. Price did not go upwards strongly but it is now above the important support level of 0.9800. There is a major obstacle to bulls, located at the resistance level of 0.9900. Bulls have carried out failed attacks into that resistance level, and they are yet to give up doing that. This week would be decisive, since bulls must breach the resistance level at 0.9900 to avoid a clear pullback in the market. One factor in their favor is the expected stamina in USD this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Cable merely went sideways last week: An action that resulted in a neutral outlook in the short-term. This week will witness a serious battle between bulls and bears, for bulls would want to push Cable upwards, whereas USD might gain some strength of its own, thereby making the bullish movement a bit difficult. This week, there would be mixed results on GBP pairs, for GBP would be strong versus some currencies like AUD and NZD, while it might because weak versus other currencies like JPY. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument went upwards by 200 pips last week, almost reaching the supply level at 107.50. Further bullish movement was rejected at that point and price got corrected lower by roughly 150 pips. Although there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week. This means USDJPY could get corrected lower and lower; while the only factor that could help bulls is a possible strength in USD. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross made some effort to push price upwards. Price topped at 118.46, and the bullish effort was paused at that point. Since JPY pairs could go south this week, the demand zones at 115.50, 115.00 and 114.50, could become potential targets for bears. In case bears are able to push the market below the demand zone at 114.00, things would have turned bearish on the market. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Don’t let your day job keep you from indulging in the lucrative market.” – Ryan Mallory
  13. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 13 “Writing down a trading plan and sticking to it is the winning trader's secret weapon. If you create detailed trading plans and manage risk, you will increase your chances of success. Don't think you need to trade by the seat of your pants. Take things slowly. Map out your trading plan, and follow it. You will trade more calmly, creatively, and profitably.” – Joe Ross Name: William Gann Nationality: American Date of Birth: June 6, 1878 Occupation: Trader, technical analyst and market forecaster A HIGHLY SPIRITUAL TRADER William’s dad was a cotton farmer. He started trading in 1902 when he was 24. He developed and used the technical analysis tools known as Gann angles, Square of 9, Hexagon, Circle of 360 (these are Master charts). Gann market forecasting methods are based on geometry, astronomy and astrology, and ancient mathematics. William was highly spiritual. Wikipedia says he was believed to be a religious man by nature who believed in religious as well as scientific value of Bible as the greatest book ever written. This can be repeatedly observed in his books. He was also a 33rd degree Freemason of the Scottish Rite Order, to which some have attributed his knowledge of ancient mathematics, though he was also known to have studied the ancient Greek and Egyptian cultures. You would need to do your own research to know how Gann angles work. He made profits by his own speculative efforts. He profits were real and his forecasts were accurate. William died on June 18, 1955. What You Need to Know: What you need to know about Williams was revealed by Justin Kuepper (Source: Trade2win.com) in his article of March 18, 2016. These are adapted excerpts from Justin’s article. Predicting the future is impossible, right? If William Gann were around today, he’d beg to differ. His first prophecy is believed to have happened during World War I when he predicted the November 9, 1918, abdication of the Kaiser and the end of the war. Then in 1927, he wrote a book entitled "Tunnel Through The Air," which many believe predicted the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, and the air war between the two countries. William’s financial predictions were perhaps even more profound. In early 1929, he predicted that the markets would probably continue to rally on speculation and hit new highs… until early April. In his publication, The Supply and Demand Letter, he delivered daily financial forecasts focusing on both the stock and commodity markets. As this daily financial publication gained notoriety, William published several books - most notably "Truth", which was hailed by the Wall Street Journal as his best work. Finally, he began releasing the techniques that he used to make these forecasts: the Gann studies. Did he produce any results? In 1908, William discovered what he called the "market time factor," which made him one of the pioneers of technical analysis. To test his new strategy, he opened one account with $300 and one with $150. It turned out to be wildly successful: William was able to make $25,000 profit with his $300 account in only three months; meanwhile, he made $12,000 profit with his $150 account in only 30 days! After his results were verified, he became famous on Wall Street as one of the best forecasters of all time. In his article on Trade2win.com, Justin Kuepper concludes: Is it possible to predict the future? W.D. Gann probably thought so, and seemingly proved it with his wildly successful returns. The system is relatively simple to use, but difficult to master. After all, it was Gann's uncanny ability to fine-tune his techniques that led him to enormous profits - the average investor is not likely to obtain these kinds of returns. Like many technical tools, Gann angles are best used in conjunction with other tools to predict price movements and profit. This piece is ended by the quote below: “Even though I'm young by many people's standards (28 years old this April), I feel like an old soul when it comes to trading. I've already been through many stressful high-volatility periods (9/11, the 2000-2002 market collapse, the 2008 Subprime Crisis, the Euro Crisis and the Flash Crash in 2010, the Chinese stock market crash in 2015... and many others). I think these experiences help me today to remain calm and cool-headed in difficult situations. ” - William Gandini (Source: Collective2.com)
  14. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral This market merely went flat throughout last week; neither closing above the resistance line at 1.1150 nor going below the support line 1.1000. Price went lower on July 15, but it is unlikely that the support line at 1.1000 would be breached, for price may not be able to close below the support line, even after it tests it. This week, the probability of price going north is higher than the probability of it going south. Therefore, the resistance lines at 1.1200 and 1.1250 could be tested this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish In spite of attacks from bears, USDCHF was able to avoid a significant decline last week. Price managed to go above the resistance level 0.9850, but it could not reach the subsequent resistance level at 0.9900 (which is a strong barrier to the bullish movement). Price underwent a shallow bearish correction on Wednesday and Thursday; while the bias remains bullish. There ought to be further bullish movement this week….. But…. There two threats against the current bullish outlook: 1). CHF could become strong any time this month. 2). USD may become weak versus other major currencies before the end of this week. Until one of these two threats materialize, USDCHF would continue trudging upwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Just as it was forecasted, GBPUSD pair made some conspicuous effort to rally last week, without being able to overturn the bearish outlook on it. Other GBP pairs also rallied significantly, like GBPNZD (1100 pips) and GBPJPY (1300 pips). GBPUSD went north by 550 pips, topped at 1.3480, before the current pullback began. A bullish signal has been generated in the hourly and 4-hour charts, whereas the overall bias remains bearish on higher timeframes. GBPUSD might be able to go further upwards this week; and the bias could turn bullish in case the rally is quite strong. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Contrary to expectation, USDJPY pair went upwards significantly last week (just as other JPY pairs did). Price went north 550 pips, ramming into the supply level at 106.00, before getting corrected on Friday. There is a now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, which means that further upwards movement is possible. The only possible impediment to the current bullish effort is a possible weakness in USD, which might result in a considerable selling pressure. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross underwent a bullish movement of more than 700 pips last week, enforcing a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. Although price got corrected by over 200 pips on Friday, July 15, the Bullish Confirmation Pattern remains valid. This means price might go further upwards this week, though threats from bears have not abated. Only a movement below the demand zone at 114.00 would render the bullish outlook useless. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “We believe in never trying to "take" or force the market, only "accept" what it gives you.” - Joe Ross
  15. When new traders move into the arena of trading they face several functional difficulties such as how do markets work, what are the subtle difference between markets and most importantly how does one design and implement a system that is some way logic and effective. If someone manages to navigate this maze and become in some way successful at this game then they face another issue, one of identity. In the Western world our work defines us – the most common introductory question one is asked is – what do you do? This question whilst seemingly innocuous is actually very powerful within our society since it conveys what your background is, your education, life experience, who you might associate with and often where you might live. Even the way our names are arranged was originally a reflection of our occupation. Hereditary surnames where uncommon in the Western world until around 13th or 14th century – they were called by names and they either reflected where you were from or your occupation. This is an obvious means of distinguishing between members of a growing population and these names are still with us today. It takes very little imagination to understand the etymology of names such as Mason, Smith or Baker. It is not too much of a stretch to say that work defines us and contributes immensely to our sense of self-worth. The devastating effects on unemployment are testament to how much of purpose we derive from the notion of work. Without a sense of work or collective striving – which is largely what working in a group is we struggle with a lack of belonging. When you become a trader this traditional sense of work is lost to you as is some part of your old identity. Traders therefore have to establish a new sense of authenticity about themselves based around what they now do – not what they used to do. This also has to somehow be communicated to others, although I have often found this to be less successful than I would have hoped. Family members will often simply not understand what you do or what you are hoping to do with your life since our roles are very nontraditional. Intimately linked to this notion of work as a mechanism of generating a sense of self-worth is the allied idea of a work ethic. Various religious traditions have the notion of a work ethic. You are rewarded for the amount of effort you put into something, the notion being the harder you work the more you earn. In trading this is not true, in fact there is a lot of evidence to the contrary, the more you try and trade the less you often make. It is quite possible as a trader to work at a constant level but to see you payoff swing wildly throughout the year. It is not uncommon to work at the same rate throughout the year and to have made little or no money for 11 months and then make it all in the last month of the year. This unfortunately is part of the game – if you have a methodology that is statistically sound what you do in a simplistic sense has little to do with what you earn. This is extremely difficult for many, particularly those who are weeded to both a notion of a work ethic and a regular pay cheque. However, there is an upside in this. You can create whatever role for yourself that you want but this is difficult since many derive their sense of self from the reflection they see in others. If you can move beyond this then you can define your life as being whatever you want it to be. And like me when travelling internationally you can on immigration forms write your occupation as Rodeo Clown and no one is any the wiser. Author: Chris Tate
  16. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair moved sideways last week, with no major bearish or bullish movement, though the overall bias remains bearish. There are support lines at 1.0000, 1.0950 and 1.0900. The support line at 1.1000 is a formidable barrier, and should price go below it, the support lines below it could be tested. On the other hand, there are resistance lines at 1.1150, 1.1200 and 1.1250, which could also be tested when bulls become strong enough to effect any short-term rally. The outlook on the market is bearish for this month; whereas that does not rule out bullish attempts this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF was able to move further upwards last week. Bulls achieved a feat when they pushed price above the support level at 0.9800 (which used to be an obstacle to them). Price was then pushed towards the resistance level at 0.9850, which has already been tested. There two threats against the current bullish outlook: 1). CHF could become strong any time this month. 2). USD may become weak versus other major currencies before the end of this week. Until one of these two threats materialize, USDCHF would continue trudging upwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument is still in a major downtrend. Price dropped 460 pips last week, reaching a low of 1.2796 and closing at 1.2951. The market went sideways in the last few days of the week. This week, there is a high probability that price would trend upwards (plus this could be witnessed on some GBP pairs). GBP might gain some strength this week or next week, but it is very much unlikely that the market would reach the high of June 23 anytime soon. This means that, while there could be a rally in the market, the dominant bias would continue to be bearish. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The market went down more than 250 pips last week, to close at 100.56 on Friday. The outlook on the market, and of course, on other JPY pairs, remains bearish. Price could trend further downwards, as it goes for the demand levels at 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00. The task is to break below the demand level at 100.00 first, after which it would be easier to reach other demand levels below it. Any rallies in this market ought to be ignored. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The “sell” signal on EURJPY is still a valid thing, since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price declined further by 330 pips from Monday to Wednesday, and consolidated till the end of the week. Like other JPY pairs, further decline is expected; and any rallied seen here are essentially opportunities to seek short trades. There are intriguing demand zones at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “You know those adages about smelling the roses and chasing butterflies? The markets are my butterflies and my roses.” - Bill Gross
  17. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 12 “If you see a strategy that has a good track record. This is not about a quick buck. It's not about one trade, or even one day. It's about putting your money into a strategy that has a track record, and sticking with it. Everyone has good days, weeks, and months... but there will be bad ones, too.” - Richard Mazur Name: Tom Steyer Date of birth: June 27, 1957 Nationality: American Occupation: Fund manager, investor, activist GREEN TRADES Born in New York City, Tom’s father was a partner in a New York law firm, and his mother was a teacher of remedial reading at the Brooklyn House of Detention. He earned a BA from Yale University and an MBA from Stanford University. Tom began his career at Morgan Stanley in 1979. From 1983 to 1985, he worked at Goldman Sachs. Wikipedia says Tom is the founder and former Co-Senior Managing Partner of Farallon Capital Management, LLC (founded in 1986), and the co-founder of Beneficial State Bank, an Oakland-based community development bank… Since 1986, he has been a partner and member of the Executive Committee at Hellman & Friedman, a San Francisco-based $8 billion private equity firm. Farallon Capital Management, LLC, manages $20 billion in capital for institutions and high-net-worth individuals. The firm’s institutional investors are primarily college endowments and foundations. In spite of inevitable negativity, Tom firm’s positions were mostly green, and he grew richer and richer over time. As of March 2014, Tom was worth $1.6 billion Tom’s married to Kathryn Ann Taylor and they’ve 4 children. He’s now very active as a philanthropist; and an environmentalist, being a democrat. He and his wife have pledged to give half their wealth to charity. What You Need to Know: After attaining some professional experience, Tom founded Farallon Capital Management, LLC, in January 1986 and co-managed its portfolios. You see, it takes time to become truly financial independent. Trading isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme, for it takes Tom 26 years to arrive where he’s today. Those who look for ways to become rich quickly are in for heavy losses and heartaches. Grow rich slowly, not quickly. Farallon, which employs about 165 people in 8 global offices, and is headquartered in San Francisco, California, has one noble goal: Absolute return investing, which is a strategy that aims to produce a positive absolute return regardless of the directions of financial markets. What a great example for traders? We want to make money regardless of the direction of the market! How does Farallon achieve their aim of making money irrespective of what the markets do? Well, they make credit investments, value investments, merger arbitrage, real estate-related investments and direct investments. They also invest in public and private debt and equity securities, and direct investments in private companies and real estate It’s a pity that too many people only have short stints at trading. They trade for a few days or a few weeks or a few months or a few years; and then quit forever. For Tom, this is different, his trading career spans more than 3 decades. When you become financially free, you can then devote your time and life to what you really like (your passions). Steyer announced in October 2012 that he would be stepping down from his position at Farallon in order to focus on political activism. What would you like to do after you become rich? Conclusion: One wise forumer says he used to get disappointed, but he learned to accept reality as part of things. Now he’s always happy because he’s no expectations and this has made his performance grow as well. He believes working without expectation is probably the best thing and makes trading so much easy to do, but of course, he remembers to set line between no expectation and being careless. He doesn’t expect much from himself as he goes with the flow of the market. This article is ended with this quote: “I believe my work right now should not be in our nation's capitol but here at home in California, and in states around the country where we can make a difference.” – Tom Steyer
  18. USDJPY = Sell AUDJPY = Sell CADJPY = Sell CHFJPY = Sell EURJPY = Sell GBPJPY = Sell NZDJPY = Sell NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 lots would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met. Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.
  19. AUS200Dominant bias: Bullish AUS200 declined last month, reaching a high of 5393.0 and a low of 5040.0. That southwards movement threatened the bullish outlook on the market, but the recovery that was witnessed in the last several days of June has upheld bulls’ domination. Price is expected to trend further northward this month, reaching the distribution territories at 5440.0, 5540.0 and 5640.0. SPX500 Dominant bias: Bullish This market moved sideways in the first half of June 2014; then it broke down on June 23 and 24, halting the bullish attempt that was witnessed before then. The bias would have turned bearish, should bears continued pushing the market southwards, but price started to recover the following week, which restored confidence to bulls. The outlook on the market is bullish, as bulls would continue to push price upwards, with only intermittent pullbacks along the way. US30 Dominant bias: Bullish The movement of this trading instrument was essentially bearish last month, but bulls were able to recover some of their losses, as price skyrocketed by 9000 points from the monthly low of 17059.0. Recovery is in progress, for this instrument may still move north by additional 4000 points (at least), this month. So the best approach might be to buy fleeting pullbacks in the market, especially when they are followed by a bullish candle in the 4-hour chart. GER30 Dominant bias: Bullish GER30 experienced a large pullback on June 23 and 24, after which bulls came in to arrest further bearish movement. Price plunged into very formidable demand zones and was forced to spring upwards – an action that was followed by a smooth bullish recovery. Price went upwards by almost 5000 points last week, but it is yet to reach the high of June 23, 2016, which was 10470.8. The high of that day is the minimum target for bulls this month, because GER30 would continue to experience gradual recovery until the target at 10470.8 is reached or exceeded. FRA40 Dominant bias: Bullish The market price reached a low of 3919.9 on June 24, and then began a journey of recovery, which remains in progress. Price closed at 4257.4 last week, on a bullish note. The targets for this month are located at the resistance lines of 4370.0, 4450.0 and 4500.0. This does not rule out possibilities of bears’ machinations, but bulls should be vividly victorious by the end of July.
  20. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair moved upwards 150 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1150, in the context of a downtrend. The outlook on EURUSD remains bearish for this week. For the outlook to turn bullish, price needs to go upwards by at least, 300 pips from here. Otherwise, the support lines at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000 would be tested this week. Those support lines were recently breached, and they would be breached again as the bearish movement continues. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF was essentially a flat market before June 23, 2016. It was pushed upwards only by fact of the strong decline in EURUSD. Price made a faint bullish attempt last week, but it met an opposition from bears, who checked further bullish movement, and forced the price to bend downwards (in the 4-hour chart). The bullish signal on USDCHF is in a precarious situation; which means that further bearish correction could cancel the bullish signal, thus forcing price back into the neutral territory, in which it was before June 23. This week, bulls need to keep on pushing price north in order to avoid bears’ victory. There is one big roadblock ahead: CHF would soon gain a serious stamina this month and it could bring about some selling pressure on USDCHF, while having visible bearish effects on other CHF pairs (save CHFJPY). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable went virtually flat last week, in the context of a downtrend. There are Bearish Confirmation Patterns on 4-hour, weekly, and monthly charts, which all signal serious weakness on Cable. Apart from this, there is a bearish expectation on Cable (and other GBP pairs); just as it was in the last two weeks. While bulls may attempt to push up price by a few hundred pips at most, bears would end up as winners. In this month, GBP pairs would experience strong movements. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY also went flat last week, in the context of a downtrend. It would be difficult for bulls to push the pair upwards significantly because there are adamant supply levels above them, and because the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week and for this month. JPY pairs are expected to assume major bearish movements this week (which could last till early October 2016). USDJPY would trend downwards by a minimum of 200 pips before the end of this week or by early next week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish While the major bias is bearish, this cross went upward 250 pips last week. There are supply zones at 115.50 and 116.50, and while price could possibly test them this week, bears would still continue to dominate the market, putting more emphasis on the major bias, which is also visible on higher timeframes. Just like other JPY pairs, this cross could go further and further downwards in the next few months, though that does not rule out the possibility of noteworthy bullish efforts. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “About fifteen years ago, I moved to the U.S. and worked with several CTAs. This was the point in my career that I made the decision to eliminate all human emotion from my trading. I became a purely systematic trader. For me, emotion and subjectivity are the enemies. Good traders follow systems. Systems have rules.” - Francisco London (Source: Collective2.com)
  21. GOLD (XAUUSD)Dominant Bias: Bullish Gold moved upwards by over 12400 pips last month, and price reached a high of 1358.21 that month. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, so it is not advisable to open short trades in the market. Any bearish attempts the market makes ought to be short-lived, proffering opportunities to go long at better prices. Further bullish movement is possible this month, which would enable price to first breach the high of June (1358.21), and then go towards the resistance levels at 1360.00, 1380.00 and possibly, 1400.00. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Recently, the bullish movement on Silver has been stronger than the bullish movement on Gold. Since the beginning of June 20016, till now, price has gone upwards by over 3200 pips, reaching a high of 19.3600 on July 1. There is a strong bullish outlook on the market – something that is supposed to continue this week. It is also possible that sales would be temporary in the context of this uptrend, as bulls target the demand levels at 19.5000, 20.0000 and 21.0000. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Bticoin went beyond our target for last month. Price broke above the accumulation territory at 600.00, reaching a high of 775.92. The buying pressure on the market still exists, and further northward attempts would be seen this month, which may enable the market to recover the massive sell-offs it experienced within June 19 to 23. Although the presence of bears poses threats, the targets for month are located at the distribution territories at 775.00, 780.00 and 800.00.
  22. “If you can trade like a hedge fund without investing in one, you can replicate their big wins without having to pay their huge fees.” – James Altucher In the first part of the article in this series, I mentioned that Mr. Caleb (a former trainee), who’s found his edge in his market, was interviewed. He’s interesting facts to reveal about trading, plus how he makes his money from the markets. Here we go: Analyst75: What motivated you to get trained for trading in the first place? Caleb: I was interested in trading because of its benefits. When I was introduced to a seminar, I attended it with a friend. I’ve to say that the seminar was a disaster to me, because all they could say was “you can make so-so amount of money,” “you can become financially free,” and all those marketing stuff. They didn’t show how that could be done, except to sell something they believed would work. Such was most of the seminars – useless. So I decided to explore other options. When I came across my former coach, I was encouraged again, but for a one-on-one training at that time. Analyst75: What did you learn during the training? Caleb: The training was an eye opener, because I was taught how the markets really work, plus trading principles that are useful. It was different than the get-rich-quickly stuff that sells you something and goes away. After the training, I practiced more and more and more. With some viable modification, here I am. Analyst75: How do you determine when to buy and when to sell? Caleb: I’m a systematic trader, with a large amount of discretion, however. I don’t trade flat markets, which means my candidates are usually trending markets. I follow the trend, using MACD and EMA to determine a major bias on a particular market, especially in the medium-term. I prefer hourly charts because they aren’t too big or too small in terms of time horizon. Then I use economic news/fundamental figures to pinpoint entry points. I trade mostly news that pushes the market in the direction of the dominant bias, for this comes with higher accuracy. Needless to say, some news releases don’t move the markets: I simply ignore those. On rare occasions, I trade news that pushes the market massively against the trend. This is where discretion comes in. In some cases, price action will reveal that an existing trend has reached maturity, and is getting tired. Analyst75: What do you stops and targets look like? Caleb: My stops range from 30 to 100 pips. I don’t set take profits unless I’ll be away from the markets for several days. In that case, my stop would be a minimum of 200 pips. Sometimes, I sustain small losses for weeks, but I’m happy as long as the losses are kept small. Huge moves in my favor often wipe those small losses away, giving me decent profits over time. Analyst75: How long do you hold onto an open trade? Caleb: I hold onto a trade as long as the market goes in my favor. A trend may last longer than most people think and bigger profits are present in sustained trending movements. When a trade fails to develop in the way I previously think, I’m quickly out! Sometimes, I don’t even wait for my stop to be hit before I quit a trade. This doesn’t mean I exit a trade on noises only, as mere noises would cause transient movements against my direction, this is where a little discretion helps. Analyst75: How do you feel when a trade goes against you? Caleb: It’s merely one of those normal things – as long as you keep the losses small. I see losses as part of business. Most business would have periods of losses, slow growth, etc. Why should trading be different? A losing streak is a good indicator that a winning streak is around the corner; and that helps me keep my chin up. I know that when I lose, some winning trades would soon materialize. Analyst75: How do you feel when you win a trade? Caleb: Normally I feel great. I feel satisfied whenever I’m in a winning streak. That’s part of the beauty of trading. Analyst75: What are your favorite pairs? Caleb: EURUSD, AUDUSD and USDJPY. To me, they’re easily predictable. Analyst75: Do you see yourself teaching others to become successful at trading? Caleb: Nope. I’m not good at teaching/coaching, and I don’t think I’ll ever become a coach. If there’s anybody who wants to learn trading, they’ll have to find a good coach to show them the way. Analyst75: Do you believe in trading robots? Caleb: Robots are good, but a little discretion helps good traders. Robots follow strict rules, which may bring disaster when the market conditions are at variance with the rules. Most trading systems are rubbish, and when programmed, they produce useless robots which might accelerate your bankruptcy. Artificial intelligence is garbage in, garbage out. Analyst75: Do you think you might change your trading method in future, applying some flexibility? Caleb: No-one can become a master trader overnight. Anyone can learn how to buy and sell, but trading mastery takes time. In a few days, you can learn driving, but that doesn’t make you an experienced driver. A person who’s just learned how to drive might not be able to handle some challenges that a driver has to face, like driving in all weather conditions. Trading is no different. If I discover that a particular rule might improve my trading results, I’d first try it in a simulated mode for 4 – 6 months. If the results are satisfactory, I make the rule part of my trading strategy. Analyst75: Most members of the public fear trading. They even discourage others from trading. What do you think about this issue? Caleb: People fear the unknown. Yes, they’re scared of what they don’t know, including what they think they know, but which they don’t really know. A novice may discourage other novices because they think they know somebody who lost their money in the markets, and so the losses in other areas of life would be an exception or a normal thing to them. Only a loss in trading is what they think is abnormal. I think the right mindset is to determine to succeed where most others fail, like trading. Analyst75: How do you combine your day job with trading? Caleb: I trade mostly in the evenings when I get back home from work: before I sleep. I spend less than 5 hours per week on trading. So, it’s pretty easy for me to trade while keeping my day job. Analyst75: As far as trading is concerned, what’s your plan for the future? Caleb: I want to be the best trader I can be. I want to be the best trader in my country. I like the joy of financial freedom trading brings and I’d like to live a quiet life in a natural environment, away from the city, where there’s too much noise. I’ll soon abandon my day job to become a full-time trader, living the kind of life I really want. Analyst75: Would you like one of your children to be a trader in future? Caleb: I believe each child is unique, created by the Providence to fulfill a specific destiny. This might not be trading in most cases. I’d be happy if a child of mine becomes a trader, but if they choose another course of life, I’d be happy too as long as they don’t have “I beg to apply” mentality. Becoming a trader isn’t by force; it’s by choice, although it’s a good vehicle for financial freedom. One thing I’ll surely do is that, I’ll inculcate the spirit of self-reliance and self-dependence into them as early as possible. Our parents don’t show us the way to be self-sufficient. They make a big mistake just by telling us to go to school and look for jobs, which to me, isn’t the best way of life. It’s a horrendous thing to be at the mercy of a boss. There’s a vast difference between living and existing. You’ll need to choose for yourself. Analyst 75: Do you have any advice for traders? Caleb: When it comes to Forex trading, patience is a virtue. Patience pays a lot. Traders should be optimistic and look forward to better trading results, even in the face of a current challenge. When you’re using a good system and facing a temporary period of loss, always look forward to a period of profit, which is around the corner. Analyst 75: Thank you Mr. Caleb, for this great interview. Conclusion: This interview is concluded with a poem-like advice from an astute female trader: I See You I see you. I see your focus, and I can picture what this will mean for your trading future. I see your trading scars, and I know that some of them came close to breaking your heart. I see your hope for the future, and I’m in awe of your potential. I see your struggle, and I know that, like a bird pecking out of an egg, the struggle will make you strong. I see your choices, and I recognise how you are honouring your vision. I see your joy as you courageously take one more step and learn a bit more about the markets. I see your deep desire to do more, be more and have more. I see a trader. I see you. Let's make 2016 a terrific year of triumph.” - Louise Bedford (Source: Tradinggame.com.au)
  23. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair tested the resistance line at 1.1400, and went above it briefly. Price could not stay above that resistance line: It tumbled by 500 pips before a 200-pip bullish correction occurred on Friday. The bias is bearish, and further bearish movement is possible, but it may not be more than 300 pips downwards. Price might also journey upwards this week, owing to the fact that the extreme bearish movement that occurred on Friday could bring opportunities to buy. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF was essentially a flat market in the context of a downtrend, before the strong bearish movement on EURUSD forced it to break out upwards. Price moved upwards 250 pips, reaching the resistance level at 0.9800, and the got corrected by 100 pips. For the bias to remain bullish, EURUSD needs to continue moving south; because the events affecting EURUSD are what would determine the movement of USDCHF (which is being currently affected by inertia on its own). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish On Friday, June 24, 2016, Cable experienced its strongest bearish movement in recent years. Price dropped by 1700 pips, reaching the low of 1.3230. Price later performed a 500-pip bullish correction, later closing at 1.3682 that Friday. Normally, the outlook on GBP pairs is bearish, and continuous selling pressure on Cable is a possibility. However, the extreme market situation would also bring some opportunities to go long, for those who are very good at catching falling knives. The markets could open with gaps next week. While things are currently bearish on GBP pairs, recovery would gradually or smoothly return to the markets. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The Brexit votes outcome also had bearish effects on JPY pairs, and that was exactly what brought about a bearish momentum on USDJPY, which was consolidating in the context of a downtrend prior to that time. What happened to this market on Friday simply brought more emphasis on the long-term bearish trend, which is also visible on the daily and weekly charts. Although the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish, the 700-pip decline that was witnessed on Friday would bring about a rally within the next several trading days, as bulls seem to have reached the end of their tether. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument dropped 1200 pips on Friday, thus forfeiting the 350-pip bullish gains it saw within Monday and Thursday. The bias on 4-hour chat, daily chart and weekly chart is bearish, but price has already encountered very formidable demand zones on Friday. While selling pressure is present in the market, we may witness some bullish attempt in the next few weeks. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: "Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it." - Warren Buffet
  24. GBP Pairs GBPAUD = Buy GBPUSD = Buy EURGBP = Sell GBPJPY = Buy GBPCHF = Buy GBPCAD = Buy GBPNZD = Buy JPY Pairs USDJPY = Buy AUDJPY = Buy CADJPY = Buy CHFJPY = Buy EURJPY = Buy GBPJPY = Buy NZDJPY = Buy NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 200 pips and a take profit of 400 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 lots would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met. Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.
  25. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 11 “If there are people in your life who do not support your efforts to become a successful trader, avoid them. Avoid those who express negative energy on a regular basis, and vent their hostilities towards you. Wherever possible, terminate unhealthy emotional relation­ships that cannot be repaired, and if necessary, do it immediately.” - Joe Ross Name: Brevan Howard Industry: Investment management Products: Hedge funds Website: Brevanhoward.com ONE OF THE LARGEST MACRO HEDGE FUNDS Brevan hedge fund was co-founded in 2002 by 5 experienced traders, although some of the founders have left the firm. The company was headquartered in Geneva in 2010. It opened an affiliate firm in New York in July 2012, called Brevan Howard U.S. Investment Management LP. In June 2013, the company was reported to be the largest European hedge fund management firm based on its total assets under management of around $40 billion. The company manages 11 funds and it maintains so high standards for trading success, that some traders who were dismissed from Brevan Howard have become “stars” at other trading companies. Brevan Howard has donated generously to Imperial College Business School, Alan Howard Scholarships for Energy Futures, and the ARK Bentworth Primary Academy. What You Need to Know: 1. According to Wikipedia, the company received $2 billion to manage in the global macro fund from Credit Suisse Private Bank. Under the leadership of Brevan Howard's founding partner, assets grew to $10.5 billion in 2006. The company generated a 25% return in 2007 and returns from their global macro fund continued to perform well during the financial crisis of 2008. 2. Alan Howard hedge fund has had many glorious years of nice profits, but not without losing years. In some years, the returns in terms of percentage were small and in some years, the losses were small. In some years, the losses were big. However, the firm has been hugely successful overall. Such is trading. 3. What are Brevan Howard investment strategies? According to founding partner, Nagi Kawkabani, the firm's overall strategy is focusing on near-term opportunities and establishing investment positions that are maintained for one to six months. As a macro hedge fund the company wants to make gains from broad economic trends and speculates on various assets including commodities and currencies. This piece is ended with the quote below: “I suggest, though, that no matter what percentage you choose, consider keeping it the same on all of your trades, because if you don’t you in are, in effect, starting to handicap your trades. When I cover this point in my webinars some of the attendees say to me, “I risked a higher percentage of my account on Trade A then Trade B because A looked better,” to which I respond ,” Why would you enter a trade that looked less than perfect and didn’t meet all of your trade selection criteria?” The reality of trading, of course, is that we never know which of our individual trades will work out. We only know that over a series of trades we should win “X%” of the time based on our particular trade selection methodology.” - Lee Bohl (Source: Trade2win.com)
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