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analyst75

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  1. “If there were a cornerstone to trading it would be the ability not only to be resilient when in drawdown but also to accept that we get things wrong. Sometimes there is a flaw in our methodology that we have not seen and that we simply have been lucky up until this point. This does raise the question of when do you know you have entered this spiral of self destruction and to my way of thinking the answer is not that hard. If you have been losing money for the better part of a decade then it is fairly obvious that there is something seriously wrong in your methodology.” – Chris Tate Can you make 1,000% returns per year from trading? I DON’T THINK SO. Every so I often I am party to an email from someone who should know better. This particular email was around the topic of returns that could be expected from a novice trader. This email asserted that they were looking at the order of 1,000% pa, which in anyone’s language is a tall order. I can understand how people get these figures in their heads, the internet is awash with people claiming that you can give up your day job and intraday trade FX with $5,000 and live like royalty with no risk. Intriguingly I have once again started receiving spam emails from people claiming that options writing is a no risk cash flow generating strategy. As such it is easy to see how peoples psyche becomes infected with this sort of nonsense and how with little real world experience they are sucked in. However I was curious as to what the numbers would look like if you were making 1000% pa so I fired up Excel and let it rip with a starting balance of 1,000. Please check here to see the figure: http://tradinggame.com.au/i-dont-think-so/?utm_source=Blog+Subscribers&utm_campaign=782ff57c63-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_eb90516269-782ff57c63-43344013 I don’t even know how to say that last number. Suffice to say that somewhere around the first months of year 7 you are the richest person in the world and by the end of year 10 I think you have all the money. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of: Tradinggame.com.au Another great quote ends this article: “You should spend a great deal of time and thought on your exit strategies, for one very good reason: you don't make money when you enter the market, you make money when you exit the market. Far too many people focus only on market entry, or what to buy, rather than on when to sell. If you approach trading with an exit strategy, it will benefit you right away. Your system should reflect your beliefs (i.e., who you are as a trader and as a person). Many people are just looking for “any system that works,” but if your trading system doesn’t match your beliefs about the markets, you will eventually find a way to sabotage your trading.” – Van Tharp Institute www.tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader
  2. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral On September 18 and 19, this pair made a faint bullish attempt, only to come down on September 20 (and then went upwards on September 21 and 22). Since there is no conspicuous victory between bull and bear, the market remains in a neutral region. There is a need for price to go above the resistance line at 1.2050 (staying above it); or go below the support line at 1.1850 (staying below it). That is when there would be a directional bias. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair has generated a bullish signal, owing to a visible bullish effort that was made last week. Price first consolidated in the first few days of the week, and then rose upwards. Further rise is possible this week, as the resistance levels at 0.9700, 0.9750 and 0.9800 are targeted. A drop below the support level at 0.9650 would force the market back into a neutral territory, while a drop below the support level at 0.9500 would end in a strong bearish bias. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD consolidated throughout last week – albeit in the context of an uptrend. Price has gained roughly 700 pips this month, and there are chances to gain more. The distribution territory at 1.3650 (which was tested last week) would be breached to the upside, as price goes for other distribution territories for the rest of September. The outlook on GBP pairs remain bullish for this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument went upwards by 150 pips last week, testing the supply level at 112.50 and then getting corrected a bit lower. There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which signals further bullish movement this week. The supply levels at 112.50, 113.00 and 113.50 might be reached before the end of the month. The demand levels at 111.50 and 111.00 would impede bearish attacks along the way. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross has become bullish in the long-term and in the short-term. Last week price went upwards by 190 pips, and then followed a shallow correction on Friday. Following the shallow correction would be a rise towards the north, as price slashes the supply zones at 134.00, 134.50 and 135.00 to the upside (possibly exceeding them). The outlook on JPY pairs is strongly bullish for this week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The market gained about 1,100 pips this month, before the bearish correction that was witnessed on Friday. Further bearish correction could take place, but it should not be significant enough to result in a bearish bias (JPY pairs are mostly expected to go upwards this week). The bearish correction would end up giving opportunities to join the existing bullish trend, at better prices. A gain of 200 – 300 pips is anticipated before the end of September. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading goes best when it is yoked to rewards… that are independent of the most recent trading results.” - Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. Source: www.tallinex.com
  3. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral The market is bullish in the long-term and neutral in the short-term. There was a slight bearish movement last week, but that was not significant. This week, price would either go above the resistance line at 1.2050, to strengthen the long-term bullish outlook; or price go below the support line at 1.1850 (which was tested last week), staying below it, to bring about a short-term bearish bias. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral USDCHF is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. From Monday to Wednesday, price went upwards by more than 200 pips, to test the resistance level at 0.9700. However, price began to come downwards on Thursday and Friday, thus rendering the short-term bullishness of the market vulnerable. To bring about a clean bullish bias, there is a need for the market to go upwards this week, staying above the resistance level at 0.9700; otherwise a strong bearish movement would result in a bearish bias. Movements between the resistance levels at 0.9700 and the support level at 0.9500 would enable the neutrality of the market to continue. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument has become seriously bullish. Price has gone upwards by 680 pips this month, and there is much room for it to go upwards this week. The instrument has closed just below the distribution territory at 1.3600 on Friday. The distribution territories at 1.3600, 1.3650 and 1.3700 would be reached this week (even if there would be any reversals later). USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY is bullish in the short-term, but bearish in the long-term. The market went bearish in the first week of this month and went bullish last week, generating a bullish signal. There is a possibility that the supply levels at 111.00 (which was tested last week), and 111.50 would be reached. On the other hand, there is a stronger possibility that price would go bearish this week, so the demand levels at 110.00, 109.50 and 109.00 could be reached this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The market rose from the demand zone at 130.00, and went upwards to test the supply zone at 133.00. This has resulted in a bullish bias, and further bullish movement could be seen as price makes more attempt to continue going northwards. However, the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week, and EURJPY may also experience a vivid pullback before the end of the week, and that is something that could bring about a bearish bias on the market. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, GBPJPY proved to be the strongest moving pair among JPY pairs. Price gained more than 820 pips, causing a huge Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further bullish movement could be seen this week, taking price towards another supply zones at 151.00 and 151.50. Then, there is a high probability of a large pullback before the end of this week, owing to a bearish expectation on JPY pairs. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Over the years, I've had the most profitable results by always making an attempt to receive pay for the risk I am taking. I want to be paid to trade.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
  4. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The pair went upwards last week, gaining about 200 pips. Price moved briefly above the resistance line at 1.2050, and then closed below it on Friday. There is a strong bullish outlook on EUR pairs this week, and therefore, the pair is supposed to continue to go upwards, gaining at least, another 200 pips. There would be pauses and occasional corrections along the way, but the movement this week would generally be bullish. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF is bearish, both in the long-term and the short-term. Price went downwards by 150 pips, tested and breached the resistance level at 0.9450. The pair is now under the resistance level at 0.9450, targeting the support levels at 0.9400, 0.9350 and 0.9300. USDCHF cannot be expected to rally meaningfully as long as EURUSD is strong. Therefore, the bias is bearish for this week, and long trades are not currently rational. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD has become bullish after rallying by more than 280 pips last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.3200, and closing slightly below it. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and price is thus expected to continue going upwards this week, reaching the distribution territories 1.3250, 1.3300 and 1.3350. These distribution territories may even be exceeded as price moves further upwards. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument dropped about 210 pips last week, testing the demand level at 107.50 and closing above it. Since the high of July 11, price has dropped 660 pips and there is much room to drop more. Nonetheless, the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week, and while the demand levels at 107.00, 106.50 and 106.00 could be reached, there is also a high possibility of a strong rally before the end of the week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral Unlike USDJPY, this cross rather consolidated last week, refusing to assume a bearish movement. One reason behind this is the fact that EUR is strong in its own right and its strength versus strength of JPY are almost equal (hence the short-term equilibrium phase in the market). Price is going to move out of balance this week, as JPY becomes weaker eventually, allowing this cross to rally massive before the end of the week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. Price has done nothing except to zigzag upwards and downward. The market environment is quite choppy and it would be better to wait until it either goes above the supply zone at 142.60 (staying above it); or it goes the demand zone at 141.10 (staying below it). Until one of these two conditions are met, price would remain directionless in the short-term. The most probable direction this week is towards the north. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “How often you win isn’t important. How much you win is.” – Rayner Teo Source: www.tallinex.com
  5. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD is bullish in the long-term and bearish in the short-term. Price went upwards on Monday and Tuesday, testing the resistance line at 1.2050. After that, a serious bearish correction took place as price went down by roughly 200 pips after the aforementioned resistance line was touched. This week, any rallies would meet a strong opposition at that resistance line of 1.2050. On the other hand, price may also target the support lines at 1.1850 and 1.1800. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral This pair has been consolidating for 5 week – hence the current neutral bias on the market. Price has oscillated between the support level at 0.9450 and the resistance level at 0.9650. For the current neutral bias to end, there is a need for price to either cross the resistance level at 0.9750 to the upside or move below the support level 0.9450, staying below it. Either of this is expected to happen this week, for there would be a rise in momentum. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD is bearish in the long-term, though it consolidated throughout last week. There is an expectation of some bearish movement this week, which may make price test the accumulation territories at 1.2900, 1.2850 and 1.2800. However, given the current price action, some bullish effort may enable price to go upwards by around 100 – 150 pips, but the upwards movement would be limited. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY us generally bearish, but the recent bullish effort has resulted in a threat to the bearish trend. Last week, price tested the demand level at 108.50 and then bounced upwards, reaching the supply level at 110.50. On Friday, the market closed above the demand level at 110.00, and this has become a threat to the bearish outlook on the market. A movement above the supply level at 111.00 would result in a bullish bias; while a movement below the demand level at 109.00 would lay more emphasis in the overall bearish outlook. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross pair went upwards last week to test the supply zone at 131.50. After that, price got corrected lower, closing below the supply zone at 131.00. However, there is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which cannot be rendered invalid unless price drops by 200 pips from its current location. The movement of the market for this week would largely be determined by whatever happens to Yen. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Over the long-term, GBPJPY is bearish, but a bullish signal has been generated in the 4-hour chart. The bullish signal was brought about by the fact that price gained about 230 pips last week, leading to a bullish outlook of this week. Further weakness in Yen may enable the supply zones at 143.50, 144.00 and 144.50, to be tested this week. Nonetheless, any display of stamina by Yen would impede the expected bullish movement. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “…The real Holy Grail in trading is proper risk management. All of the successful traders I know follow a few specific, even conservative, risk management rules.” – Rick Wright Source: www.tallinex.com
  6. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is neutral in the short-term, but bullish in the long-term. Price moved sideways from Monday to Thursday, and then broke upwards on Friday. Price gained roughly 150 pips that day, closing above the support line at 1.1900. The bullish movement could take price towards the resistance lines at 1.1950 and 1.2000. The resistance line at 1.2000 would try to impede any bullish movement beyond it, for the outlook on EURUSD is bearish for this week (following some visible bullish effort). USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral USDCHF is bearish in the long-term, and neutral in the near-term. The market consolidated mostly last week, save for the bearish breakout that was witnessed on August 25. Since the movement of this pair is dictated by whatever happens to EURUSD, it is expected that further downwards movement would be witnessed as long as EURUSD goes upwards. This can enable price to go below the support lines at 0.9550 and 0.9500, thus ending the ongoing near-term neutrality. A sharp drop in EURUSD price would bring about a meaningful rally on USDCHF. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Since the beginning of this month, GBPUSD has lost about 450 pips, going southwards. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which could not be threaten by the rally that took place at the end of last week. In fact, the rally would act as a good opportunity to sell short at slightly higher prices, for the outlook on GBPUSD is bearish for this week. In September, GBP pairs would be mostly bearish (though some rallies would be witnessed in certain cases). USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument was caught in an equilibrium phase last week – though the major outlook on the market is bearish. The weakness in USD has prevented a meaningful rally in the market, and bullish effort would continually be thwarted as price goes further downwards. Further bearish movement is anticipated this week, for the demand levels at 109.00, 108.50 and 108.00 would be aimed. Rallies should either be ignored or approached with caution. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Both in the short-term and the long-term, this cross is bullish. Some conspicuous rally attempt was started at the beginning of last week, and that culminated in a strong rally that was seen on Friday, as price closed at 130.45. A “buy” signal has already been generated, and that may enable price to go upwards by another 200 pips this week. However, the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week and for September, and thus, whatever goes up on EURJPY cross will eventually come down. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish GBPJPY was quite choppy in July. Nonetheless a smooth bearish movement began in August, and price has been going steadily southwards since the beginning of the month, losing 700 pips. On Thursday and Friday, some bullish correction was seen, but that has paled into insignificance when compared to the overall bearish bias on the market. This week, price is supposed to continue its bearish movement. The demand zones at 140.50, 140.00 and 139.50 would be reached. They may even be exceeded. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading is a collaborative endeavour between you and the market. The market offers up opportunities on a regular never ending cycle and you decide what you will do with these opportunities. There is no enemy in this transaction; it is a symbiotic relationship and a failure to accept this is at the root of many of the problems that traders have.” – Chris Tate Source: www.tallinex.com
  7. “One thing very good traders have is insight into themselves.” - Chris Tate FUN AND GAMES Recently Louise Bedford and I have been doing the Short Term Trading Magic seminars in a few places and it has been sometime since I did any form of presentation on a semi regular basis. As such it has been interesting to observe people as they work through various trading issues. One of the things I have noted is that people take trading far too seriously and this is reflected in a form of desperation. Desperation is the antithesis of the state of mind you need to be in to trade effectively. There is no deny that this is a phase everyone enters at some stage in their career but to be successful you need to move beyond this and begin to treat trading as the game that it is. Once I started treating trading as a game then it became so much easier on the soul and my results reflected this. I even have a t-shirt that says that the fewer fucks I give the more I make. This is not to say that I am reckless but rather that I am in no way wedded to the outcome of any trade. At its core my life will not change if a trade or even a cluster of trades are winners or losers – they are simply not that important. When compared to real life, trading is nowhere near as important as people think it is. It is often commented that children are better are learning new things than adults who seem set in their ways. I am not so certain that this is a reflection of any great cognitive superiority or plasticity that the young may have but rather a reflection of their willingness to be both wrong and to play. Young children have no ego therefore the mistakes that their play generate have no impact upon their sense of self-worth. As adults we lose this resilience because we believe that it is somehow catastrophic to our self-image if we do make mistakes. But in trading your mistakes are your own – no one else can see them so you are insulated from the judgment of others. This isolation gives you the freedom to be wrong but the only thing you have to cope with is your own judgment. Markets are a wonderful universes for exploration and for play. The presence of micro contracts in various instruments and online trading mean that you experiment very cheaply. The price of admission to the fun park is much lower than it used to be and the number of rides has gone through the roof. It is a shame that more traders don’t view trading as little more than a theme park where you can play to your heart’s content and during the process of playing you learn much more than you would if you were consumed by seriousness and desperation. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of: http://tradinggame.com.au/ More trading quotes are below: “To my way of thinking trading is an internal endeavour – there is no external enemy who you can deceive or overpower since markets only exist in the most ephemeral way inside your head. Markets may appear to be physical constructs but they are largely an illusion, trading occurs inside your head where your own perceptions and distortions of reality influence your decision making.” – Chris Tate “The one thing you shouldn't feel pressured about is trading. If you do feel that way, you probably need to take a step back and reassess. Pressured trade®s don't make good trade®s.” – Joe Ross www.tallinex.com wants you to be a successful trader
  8. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term (for price has been going sideways for about two weeks). Price has been moving to and fro, within the resistance line at 1.1850 and the support line at 1.1650. As long as price moves to and fro within the resistance and support lines, the short-term neutrality would hold out. A movement above the resistance line of 1.1850 would make the long-term bullish bias more conspicuous, while a movement below the support line of 1.1650 would result in a bearish outlook. A movement below the aforementioned support line is more likely, owing to the expected weakness in EUR this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral USDCHF has become a neutral market, as it has not assumed a protracted directional movement since early August. For a directional movement to start, there is a need for price to go above the resistance level at 0.9750 (thus creating a Bullish Confirmation Pattern), or the price would go below the support level at 0.9600 (thus creating a Bearish Confirmation Pattern). A movement to the upside is more likely this week, owing to an expectation of weakness in CHF and strength in USD. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This market went downwards last week, testing the accumulation territory at 1.2850 several times, but not able to breach it to the downside. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week, and for this, the bearish journey on GBPUSD would continue as the accumulation territory at 1.2850 is breached to the downside. The next targets would be accumulation territories at 1.2800, 1.2750 and 1.2700. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish From August 14 to 16, there were bullish attempts in this market, as price went upwards by 160 pips, almost reaching the supply level at 111.00. From the high of last week (110.93) price went down by 220 pips, moving briefly below the demand level at 109.00 and then closing above it on Friday. The bearish journey may continue this week, and therefore, the demand level at 109.00, 108.50 and 108.00 could be the next targets. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish What happened on EURJPY last week was nearly similar to what happened on USDJPY. In the first few days of last week, price rallied in the context of a downtrend, testing the supply zone at 130.00 and then dropping smoothly by 200 pips, to test the demand zone at 128.00. Price has closed above the demand level at 128.00, but it is likely that it would test it again – probably breaching it to the downside - as it ontinues to go southwards this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “20+ years ago I knew I wanted to live life on my terms, I just didn’t know how to create the income that would allow that. That desire drove my focus on trading and still does today.” – Sam Seiden, Source: www.tallinex.com
  9. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish, though it only consolidated last week, moving between the support line at 1.1700 and the resistance line at 1.1850. A movement above the aforementioned resistance line would put more emphasis on the bullish bias, while a movement below the support line could result in a threat to the bullish bias. On the other hand, further consolidation for the next several trading days would bring out a neutral bias on the market. No matter what happens this week, EUR would be seen going upwards versus certain currencies like AUD and NZD. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This is essentially a bear market, although there was a bearish effort between July 25 and August 8, it was not enough to override the overall bearish bias. After testing the resistance line at 0.9750, further bullish effort was rejected as price came down by 250 pips, closing below the resistance line at 0.9650 on Friday. This week, the market would endeavor to target the support levels at 0.9550 and 0.9500 (even possibly exceeding it). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, GBPUSD moved sideways last week. Price oscillated between the distribution territory at 1.3050 and the accumulation territory at 1.2950. A movement below the accumulation territory at 1.2950 would put more emphasis on the bearish mode of the market, while a movement above the distribution territories at 1.3050, 1.3100 and 1.3150 would result in a new bullish signal. This week, GBP also would be seen moving upwards versus certain currencies like AUD and NZD. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish From the August high of 114.47, this trading instrument has dropped by 550 pips, testing the demand level at 109.00, and closing above the demand level on Friday. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and thus, it is logical to conclude that price would continue going downwards this week, aiming at the demand levels of 109.00, 108.50 and 108.00. There could be transitory upward bounces along the way. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The long-expected bearishness on EURJPY is here. Last week, price dropped 250 pips, ending the recent neutrality on the market (which was in place for roughly three weeks), and bringing about a bearish bias. On Friday, price bounced upwards, closing slightly above the demand zone at 129.00; thus creating a wonderful opportunity to sell short at a better price, while the outlook on the market remains bearish. This week, price is expected to go lower, reaching the demand zones at 128.50, 128.00 and 127.50 This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “All good traders are also good record keepers. If they win a trade, they want to know exactly why and how… Traders who win consistently treat trading as a business.” - Matt Blackman Source: www.tallinex.com
  10. “One of the things that amazes me most about trading is that the longer I do it the more I admit that I don’t know. For a very long time I have been convinced that I have no idea where the price of instrument is going. I certainly know a lot about market dynamics, the history of markets (which is something everyone should study) and about my own reactions to events. But I have sold all idea about where the market is going. Granted I can create a narrative in my own head to justify my own positions but at the end of the day I simply make a bet on the direction of an instrument and I am consciously aware of my own behavioural short comings.” – Chris Tate (an expert veteran of the markets, more than 30 years of experience) Anyone can learn to be a trader – but making a success of it involves more than just pushing Bid and Ask buttons. You need good strategies that will allow you to deal with the vagaries of the market. It’s no secret that the majority of traders lose. But some succeed and become rich, even super-rich. These are the super traders. Insights into the Mindset of Super Traders reveals the life stories of 20 selected master traders: how they think, how they view the markets, and how they make their fortunes. The book gives an overview of their careers and explains what lessons can be drawn from their success. “THREE QUESTIONS TRADERS WOULD LIKE TO ASK RIGHT NOW.” Why is trading so difficult? Answer: What makes trading appear very difficult is the fact that the market can never be predicted. When we predict, we’re sometimes wrong or right. However, having an impression that the market can be predicted is the single most important reason why most traders end getting frustrated. No matter the analytical method you use (Monte Carlo, Neural Networks, Horology, robots, Gann, news, Ichimoku, etc), you can’t predict the future. Your frustration will continue as long as you think you can predict the market. Once you admit you can’t do this, your frustration ends, because you’ve aligned yourself with the reality in the market. What benefit can I get from trading? Answer: Freedom. Freedom is everything. You master your financial destiny, growing richer and richer gradually. Very soon, you’ll realize that trading is the best vehicle for financial freedom; plus the greatest game on earth. Sadly, many people don’t believe this fact. How can I experience permanent success in the markets? Answer: You will attain permanent success once you devise a way to make money in the market without being able to predict the market – without knowing what the market will do next. This kind of strategy isn’t hard to devise. You’ll then see each new trade as a potential loser until you’re proven otherwise. This mindset will enable you to activate stops and use a small position size. You’ll know trading is simply a game of probability and with a good RRR, the odds will eventually come in your favour. This is what’s called positive expectancy. With this simple approach, you’ll no longer see trading as difficult. More importantly, you will attain permanent success without the ability to know the future, which begins from your mind. This piece is ended with 2 quotes: “Talking about trader psychology may stir intellectual debate, but the real work of trader psychology is about re-working the beliefs are you projecting onto the markets about your capacity to manage uncertainty (with your trading account as the arbiter). Simply being knowledgeable is never enough. It is the hard, but satisfying, work of examining the beliefs that drive your performances in trading that matter.” - Rande Howell “The complete trader is able to combine all or parts of the above approaches with his own style. Trading mastery combines observation, scientific knowledge, good judgment, intuition, and creative instincts with decisive action.” – Joe Ross Tap the secret here (almost free of charge): http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html www.tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader.
  11. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair edged higher last week, reaching the resistance line at 1.1900, before the pullback that is currently being experienced. Price has gained more than 1000 pips since early May 2017, and the trend for this year has generally been bullish. The pullback may end up giving a good opportunity to buy long at better prices, in the context of an uptrend (for the outlook on EUR is bullish for this week). Price could thus target the resistance lines at 1.1800, 1.1850 and 1.1900. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish A recent weakness in CHF has made USD/CHF go upwards, resulting in the current bullish bias. However, the bullish bias is currently precarious, for price merely consolidated last week, closing above the support line at 0.9700. Further consolidation this week would result in a neutral bias, unless price is able to breach the resistance level at 0.9750 to the upside, closing above it. On the other hand, a movement below the support level at 0.9550 would result in a bearish bias, which may happen in case CHF gathers bullish momentum (a possibility). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD is bullish, but there is a threat to the bullishness. As the market moved in a positive correlation with its EURUSD counterpart, its price was able to go up last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.3250, before there was a considerable pullback on Thursday and Friday. From the high of last week (1.3262), price dropped 210 pips, closing below the distribution territory at 1.3050 (hence the threat to the bullish bias). The threat may increase as price goes further southward, as the outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week. The accumulation territories at 1.3000 and 1.2950 could be breached easily. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Here is a bear market, with a clear Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price has been going southwards in a slow and steady manner, having lost 430 pips since July 11. The market bounced upwards on August 4, but that pales into insignificance when compared to the overall bearish bias. This week, the bearish journey would continue - owing to the ongoing bearish expectation certain JPY pairs. The initial target is the demand level at 110.50, then followed by the demand level at 110.00 which was also tested last week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The neutrality on this trading instrument continued last week. Price attempted to stay above the supply zone at 131.00, but the attempt proved abortive. Had the attempt succeeded, a bullish signal would have been generated. The weakness that was seen in the last few days of last week has only put more emphasis on the neutrality of the market. One factor preventing a serious bearish movement in this market is the stamina in EUR, and therefore, there may not be a big pullback until EUR undergoes exponential weakness. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Be proud you're a trader. A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. A trader does not ask to be paid for his failures, nor does he ask to be loved for his flaws. A trader does not squander his body as fodder, or his soul as alms. Just as he does not give his work except in trade for material values, so he does not give the values of his spirit - his love, his friendship, his esteem - except in payment and in trade for human virtue, in payment for his own selfish pleasure, which he receives from men he can respect…” - Ayn Rand Source: www.tallinex.com
  12. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD, which has generally been bullish this year, went upwards by 100 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1750. Some attempts were made to breach the resistance line to the upside, but to no avail. However, the resistance line remains under siege and it may be breached to the upside, as other resistance lines at 1.1800 and 1.1850 are targeted. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week, but bullish for August 2017; so we may see some considerable correction before the end of the week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Perpetual weakness in CHF has helped USDCHF to generate a clean bullish signal (most CHF pairs also skyrocketed while the CHF/JPY plummeted). Price gained about 250 pips last week, and it is currently volatile. The market would continue going upwards as long as CHF shows weakness. This is a classical example of when both USDCHF and EURUSD go into a positive correlation; i.e., they both go upwards. The USDCHF normally goes into opposite direction to EURUSD, but this time around, the case is being influenced by exponential weakness in CHF. Price may go further upwards to test the resistance levels at 0.9750 and 0.9800. However, CHF would regain its losses, starting from this week and throughout August; something that would send CHF pairs (including USDCHF) southwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD was able to retain its bullishness last week, trying to go upward just like EURUSD has done, since both of them normally go into positive correlation. The distribution territory at 1.3150 was tested repeatedly last week, and it might be breached to the upside this week, as other distribution territories at 1.3200 and 1.3250 are aimed. Although GBP pairs would experience mixed results in August, GBPUSD would not really become bearish as long as it stays above the accumulation territory at 1.2850. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish In this market, this month has been bearish so far. Last week was also characterized by bearishness in spite of bull’s desperate effort to push price upwards, which made price tested the supply level at 112.00, before price went downwards to close below the demand level at 111.00. The next target is the demand level at 110.50, which would easily be breached as other demand levels at 110.00 and 109.50 are targeted. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week and for August. Therefore, long trades are not recommended. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This currency trading instrument has been consolidating for about two weeks, resulting in short term neutrality. A movement above the supply zone at 130.50 would bring about a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market; while a movement below the demand zone at 128.00 would result in a bearish bias. This is what is expected to happen within the next several trading days. Nonetheless, bear would eventually become a winner in August. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “It doesn’t matter how often a method or system wins, what matters is the bottom line: does the method or system make money for you?! If it does, then stick with the bottom line.” - Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
  13. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish On EURUSD, bull was the clear winner last week. Price went upwards by 210 pips, breaking the multi-month high at 1.1600 and closing above the support line at 1.1650. Since June 27, price has gained 470 pips, and there is still more room for upwards movement, for price could reach the resistance lines at 1.1700, 1.1750 and 1.1800 this week. Nevertheless, it should be noted that, the more the market goes upwards, the more the chances of a reversal (which could happen before the end of the month). USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair went down about 200 pips last week, making bear the clear winner. Since May 12, the market has gone down by more than 600 pips, leading to a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On Friday, price went briefly below the support level at 0.9450, and later closed above it. This week, further downwards movement is expected and the support levels at 0.9450, 0.9400, and 0.9350 could be tried. In case USD gains a considerable amount of stamina, there would be an upwards bounce in the market. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Cable is bullish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. Price tested the distribution territory at 1.3100, and then began to be corrected downwards last week, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.2950. A movement above the distribution territory at 1.1300 would help restore the bullish confident; while a movement below the accumulation territory at 1.2800 would result in a bearish bias. A movement between the distribution territory at 1.3050 and the accumulation territory at 1.2900 would keep the short-term neutrality in the market. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There is a bearish signal on USDJPY. Price went southwards by 140 pips last week (having gown downwards by 330 pips since July 11). On Friday, the demand level at 111.00 was tested – it would be breached to the downside this week. Other bearish targets are located at the demand levels of 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50. There is a strong bearish outlook on JPY pairs this week, and therefore, long trades are not recommended on USDJPY. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The bias on this cross is bullish, though price only consolidated last week. Further consolidation can result in a short-term neutrality. One reason why the bullish bias has held out so far is the stamina in EUR itself. This week, there are possibilities that the supply zones at 130.50 and 131.00 can be tested this week. On the other hand, there could be a strong pullback before the end of the week (or the month), owing to a bearish outlook on JPY pairs for the rest of the month. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading is a great business for those who master it, and those who master it are traders who have mastered themselves.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
  14. INTRODUCTION: Hello Traders. The article below is useful for all areas of human endeavors (including trading). Please read it to discover a great secret today. Read between the lines and see how the facts revealed here aptly apply to trading. ----------------------------------------------------------------- There are, broadly speaking, two ways to see the world and these have a great influence on how successful you become. The first is what psychologists call the “external locus of control,” and the second is the “internal locus of control.” You see… as the world around you changes, you can either attribute success and failure to things you have control over, or to forces outside your influence. And which orientation you choose has a huge bearing on your long-term success. This concept dates back to the 1960s with Julian Rotter’s investigation into how people’s behaviours and attitudes affected the outcomes of their lives. Locus of control describes what individuals perceive about the underlying main causes of events in his/her life. Put more simply: Are you the pilot of your life or you just a passenger? Do you believe that your destiny is controlled by you or by external forces (such as fate, the government, your boss, the system or others)? Here’s how Charles Duhigg—the author of the book Smarter Faster Better describes locus of control: “Locus of control has been a major topic of study within psychology since the 1950s. Researchers have found that people with an internal locus of control tend to praise or blame themselves for success or failure, rather than assigning responsibility to things outside their influence. A student with a strong internal locus of control, for instance, will attribute good grades to hard work, rather than natural smarts. A salesman with an internal locus of control will blame a lost sale on his own lack of hustle, rather than bad fortune. “‘Internal locus of control has been linked with academic success, higher self motivation and social maturity, lower incidences of stress and depression, and longer life span,’ a team of psychologists wrote in the journal Problems and Perspectives in Management in 2012. People with an internal locus of control tend to earn more money, have more friends, stay married longer, and report greater professional success and satisfaction” What is an external locus of control? Well, we all know those people. In fact, sometimes we are those people. Nothing is ever their fault. There is always an excuse. The world is out to get them, life is unfair. Duhigg describes it as follows: “…Having an external locus of control—believing that your life is primarily influenced by events outside your control—’is correlated with higher levels of stress, [often]because an individual perceives the situation as beyond his or her coping abilities,’ the team of psychologists wrote” (24). The benefits of an Internal Locus of Control In general, people with an internal locus of control: Engage in activities that will improve their situation. Emphasize striving for achievement. Work hard to develop their knowledge, skills and abilities. Are inquisitive, and try to figure out why things turned out the way they did. Take note of information that they can use to create positive outcomes in the future. Have a more participative management style. The bottom line: We aren’t born with an unalterable locus of control, so it is critical to keep an eye on in ourselves so we can improve the way we look at the world. Sure, bad things happen to us. But rather than dwelling on them, it’s better to find a useful belief about them and move on. It’s important to remove the idea that your life is dictated by forces outside of your control. Of course, to one degree or another, it is. But there is plenty that we can control. You can create your own luck through study, hard work and perseverance. It’s often said that you become a blend of the five people you hang out with the most. This is important to keep in mind. Associate with positive people who believe they are in control of their own lives. Their beliefs and energy will rub off on you. And then yours will rub off on them. It becomes a very powerful and positive feedback loop! Author: Michael Yardney (a guest blogger at http://tradinggame.com.au) Author’s profile: Michael Yardney is a director of Metropole Property Strategists, which creates wealth for its clients through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He is a best-selling author, one of Australia’s leading experts in wealth creation through property and writes the Property Update blog. Articles reproduced with kind permission of The Trading Game Pty Ltd PS: 4 useful trading quotes are also added below: “There is a wise saying which came into being primarily since the advent of mechanical trading systems, and it goes something like this: "Your system will stop working when someone else builds his system based on your system." Can you see the truth in that? It is because of that reality that it is best to scout around for what may be working recently, and why it is a waste of time to backtest a system or method to see if it has worked for the last 10 years. You can't trade history you are forced to trade the present in an attempt to take advantage of the future.” – Joe Ross “I’m not worried about being stingy, trying to get every last pip out of a trade; I want out of my position if the trade is going the wrong way! Do you want to be stingy or do you want to be OUT??” - Rick Wright “A winner has the ability to find positive values from the most negative circumstances. This is the first reason why only emotionally healthy people can assume risks, they are able to rise above the superficial negative circumstances, discover trading opportunities and take decisive trading actions based on the current market conditions.” – Andy Jordan “You have no control over whether you will win or lose – but you have enormous influence over the beliefs that drive the performance of your trading process. This is the new “Winning Nature” that bridges the gap between controlling outcome (which is impossible) and controlling your process (which you can do repeatedly). This leads to the calm, patient mind need for successful trading.” - Rande Howell www.tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader. Traders’ Mindset: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html
  15. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The market was engaged in a bearish correction from Monday through Wednesday and then rallied on Thursday, to close on a bullish note on Friday. This has put some emphasis on the bullish bias on the market, which means that occasional corrections would often lead to further rallies. The outlook on EURUSD is bullish for this week (and so it is for other EUR pairs). The initial targets are located at the resistance lines at 1.1450, 1.1500 and 1.1550. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish The USD/CHF made some bullish attempt in the first few days of last week, breaching the resistance level at 0.9650, but not being able to stay above it. The bullish attempt was not significant enough to pose any threat to the extant bearish bias, for price nosedived again on Thursday, owing to the new lease of stamina in EURUSD. The outlook on USD is bearish for this week, and as such further downwards movement towards the support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9550 is anticipated. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Basically, GBPUSD is bullish in the longer-term and bearish in the shorter-term. Price moved down by 110 pips last week, in the context of an uptrend, closing below the distribution territory at 1.2900. This week, the outlook on GBP pairs is strongly bullish, and as such, there is an expectation of a strong bullish movement to the upside, which would assert the presence of bulls. The initial targets are the distribution territories at 1.2900, 1.2950 and 1.3000 which have been previously attained. Price might even go beyond those targets. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Since June 14, this pair has gained about 510 pips, moving in a perpetual bullish mode. Price is now very close to the supply level at 114.00; plus the possibility of breaching it to the upside is very high, owing to the clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern present in the market. Once the supply level is breached, the next targets would be the supply levels at 114.50, 115.00 and 115.50. However, the overall outlook for this month is bearish, and that may materialize anytime. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The market moved sideways in the first few days of last week, before trending further northwards. Since June 15, this cross has gained about 740 pips, closing very close to the supply zone at 130.00 on Friday. The supply zone would be easily breached to the upside as price goes further towards other supply zones at 130.50, 131.00 and 131.50. There could, nonetheless, be some bearish reversals this month, but that may not happen as long as EUR is strong. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: "There is time to go long, time to go short, and time to go fishing. A good signal jumps at you from the chart and grabs you by the face – you can’t miss it.” – Jesse Livermore Source: www.tallinex.com
  16. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, a bullish breakout in this market put an end to the neutral bias on it, which was in place from June 12 to 23. Price gained more than 250 pips, almost reaching the resistance line at 1.1450, but closing above the support line at 1.1400. There is a huge Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means that further bullish movement is a possibility. Nevertheless, the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week; just as it was previously announced that the movements on EUR pairs would be bullish last week. We might see a meaningful bearish run on EURUSD before the end of this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair dropped precipitously last week, almost testing the support level at 0.9550 before closing near the resistance level at 0.9600. The bias on the market is currently bearish, but that may change once EURUSD drops before the end of this week. There are support levels at 0.9550 and 0.9500, which may be tested. An upwards movement may enable price to test the resistance levels at 0.9600, 0.9650 and 0.9700. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD, which normally gets positively correlated with EURUSD, also went upwards by 310 pips last week, closing above the accumulation territory at 1.3000 on Friday. There is a possibility of further upwards movement, but the movement would be limited since the outlook on this market, and certain on GBP pairs, is bearish for this week. This means that there could be a serious bearish correction before the end of the week. As usual, there would be strong volatility on GBP pairs in July. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY moved slowly northward last week, testing the supply level at 112.50, but being unable to close above it. Since June 14, the market has gained about 340 pips while moving northwards slowing and gradually. The trend in the market is bullish, but that may soon be put to an end, for the outlook on the market is bearish for this week and for this month. JPY pairs are also expected to go bearish this week and in July. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Unlike USDJPY, which moved upwards gradually and slowly last week, EURJPY cross moved upwards rapidly and significantly. Price went upwards from the demand zone at 124.50, and tested the supply zone at 128.50 (a movement of about 400 pips). There is a significant Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and short trades are currently not encouraged until there is a deep correction in the market, which would eventually happen, owing to a bearish outlook on JPY pairs for the month of July. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Independence has a slightly different meaning when it comes to the world of trading, but it is an important one. Trading gives us the independence from having to have a “9-5” job. It gives us the freedom to work from just about anywhere in the world (thanks, in part, to technology). We can choose what we want to trade, how much we want to trade and even take breaks whenever we want. It’s one of the best “jobs” you can have.” – TradingEducators Source: www.tallinex.com
  17. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral This market did nothing significant last week, save the movement between the resistance line at 1.1250 and the support line at 1.1100. The market has essentially become neutral, and that bias would hold out until the aforementioned resistance line is breached to the upside or the support line is breached to the downside. This is what is expected this week, for activity in the market would be greater than what was seen last week. Movement to the upside is more probable. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USD/CHF also did not do anything significant last week, tough the bearish bias still exists, most importantly in the long-term. Price tested the resistance level at 0.9750 and later closed below the resistance level at 0.9700 on Friday. Further bearish movement is anticipated this week, especially when EURUSD goes northward (which is a possibility). There are possible targets at the support lines of 0.9650, 0.9600 and 09550. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The bearish signal that started on June 9 has lasted till now. Last week, price went downwards to test the accumulation territory at 1.2600, and later bounced upwards, to close above the accumulation territory at 1.2700. In spite of the upwards bounce, the outlook on GBPUSD remains bearish for this week (plus on certain other GBP pairs). Price could reach the accumulation territories of 1.2700, 1.2650 and 1.2600 - all of which were tested last week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This currency trading instrument is currently in a neutral mode, owing to the tight consolidation that took place on it last week. A bullish signal was generated on June 15, but that was rendered ineffectual owing to the bull’s inability to push price protractedly northwards. In fact, the inability of the trading instrument to go more upwards may eventually result in a smooth bearish run before the end of this week, since the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross has been able to retain its bullishness so far, despite many odds against it. In most part of last week, price oscillated between the demand zone at 123.50 and the demand zone at 124.50 (formerly a supply zone). Since price was able to close above the demand zone at 124.50, an imminent bullish intent has been revealed. However, price may not move seriously upwards, because of the possibility of bearish movements, which can happen on JPY pairs. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Regular and honest self-assessment of your trading performance is crucial to your long-term success… It’s never comfortable to review a scenario and admit your mistakes, but doing so leads to massive personal growth as a trader — and in life too.” - Deron Wagner Source: www.tallinex.com
  18. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The market largely consolidated last week – in the context of an uptrend. A movement below the support line at 1.1100 could trigger a bearish signal, and that exactly is what is expected this week, for the outlook on EURUSD (and some EUR pairs) is bearish. The targets for the week are located at the support lines of 1.1050 and 1.1000. However, there would not be a real threat to the current bullish outlook until the support line at 1.1100 is breached to the downside. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Despite the little bullish effort that was made in the last few days of last week, the bias on USDCHF is essentially bearish. The bias would, nevertheless, turn bullish, once the resistance level at 0.9900 is breached to the upside. That is a huge possibility this week, because EURUSD is expected to trend south (thereby helping USDCHF upwards), and CHF is also expected to be somewhat weak, which would enable USD to rally versus it. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral This is a volatile market, which has put the recent bullish outlook in a precarious situation. A protracted directional movement is needed before a new bias can be determined in the short-term. There is a need for the accumulation territory at 1.2600 to the breached to the downside before the bias can turn bearish, and there is a need for the distribution territory at 1.2900 to be breached to the upside before the bias can turn bullish. Until one of these two things happen, the bias would remain neutral. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument is trying to make some bullish effort in the context of a downtrend. Last week, price consolidated and then made a faint bullish effort on Thursday and Friday, as it closed above the demand level at 110.50 on Friday. The outlook on JPY pairs is again, bearish for this week, and as a result of this, any rallies perceived in the market should be disregarded, since they would turn out to be short-selling opportunities. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The bias on EURJPY remains bullish, although that may change at any time. Price closed above the demand zone at 124.00 and it may hit the supply zones at 124.50 and 125.00, before turning south. Any gains in the Yen would cause JPY pairs to tumble, and EURJPY is no exception. Nevertheless, there is a need for price to go below the demand zone at 121.00 before the bias can really turn bearish. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “I’ve reached the point where I can now support myself with my trading profits.” – Dr Jack Loftis Source: www.tallinex.com
  19. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Although the bias on this pair is bullish, bulls are getting tired of pushing price upwards. Price consolidated last week, moving between the resistance line at 1.1200 and the resistance line at 1.1300, before it closed below the resistance line at 1.1200 on Friday. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish this week, and that may cause the market to assume a bearish journey, as the support lines at 1.1150 and 1.1100 are targeted. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USD/CHF moved between the resistance level at 0.9700 and the support level at 0.9600 last week. On Friday, an attempt was made to go above the resistance level at 0.9700, but price was forced to close below it. In spite of a faint rally that was seen last week, the dominant bias on the market remains bearish. Further bearishness is expected this week, as USD would be weak against some currencies like CHF, NZD and AUD. The only factor that could cause a noteworthy bullish run in the market is a major pullback on the EURUSD. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish It was formerly forecast that the outlook on GBP pair is bearish for June. GBP pairs went through major pullbacks last week as EURGBP shot skywards. That event was what put an end to the short-term neutrality on GBPUSD, which has been moving sideways before the pullback that happed on June 9. That event has caused a Bearish Confirmation Pattern to form in the market as price lost more than 200 pips (the initial loss was about 300 pips but price bounced upwards). This week, the bearish outlook on the market remains valid as further bearish movement is anticipated. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument went downwards on Monday and Tuesday; and then made effort to go upwards on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. All this happened in the context of a downtrend, which is expected to continue this week, for the outlook on JPY pair is very bearish for the week. Thus, the demand levels at 109.50. 109.00, and 108.50 would be tested this week, as price goes southwards. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The EUR/JPY cross is bullish in the long-term (though the long term-bullishness is now being threatened), and bearish in the short-term. Price dropped 150 pips last week, to test the demand zone at 123.00, after which it moved sideways for the rest of the week. Things are currently volatile, but further bearish movement is anticipated (just like on other JPY pairs); and thus, the demand zones at 123.00, 122.50 and 122.00 could be breached. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “If you have a strategy that works, stick to it.” – James Altucher Source: www.tallinex.com
  20. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair consolidated in the first few days of last week, and then went slightly upwards. On Friday, price closed above the support line at 1.1250, targeting the resistance line at 1.1300. The outlook on EUR pairs, however, is bearish for this week, which means that EURUSD could experience a serious pullback before the end of the week. Before that happens, price would continue making some visible bullish effort. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF went bearish last week, losing at least, 110 pips. The market has lost 460 pips since May 11, and that has caused a Bearish Confirmation Pattern to form in the chart. On June 2, price closed below the resistance level at 0.9650, going towards the support level at 0.9600, which is the first target for the week. The second target is the support level at 0.9550. The market is expected to continue going further and further southward, until EURUSD would experience a clear pullback, something that would cause USDCHF to spring upwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD is bullish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. In the short-term, price simply fluctuated without taking a specific direction. The situation may change this week as price goes above the distribution territory at 1.3050 to continue the long-term bullish bias; or goes below the accumulation territory at 1.2700, to form a new bearish bias. Price must thus go above the aforementioned distribution territory (1.3050) or accumulation territory (1.2700) before a directional bias can occur. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There is a bearish signal on this currency trading instrument, and price may continue going downwards to test demand levels at 110.00, 109.50 and 109.00. Price went sideways last week, but became conspicuously bearish on Friday. Rally attempts may happen along the way, but they are expected to be transient (not being able to form a bullish bias on the market), because the general outlook on this trading instrument, as well as other JPY pairs, is bearish for June. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The EUR/JPY cross is bullish in the long-term, and neutral in the short-term. Price generally went upwards in May; though it is yet to do anything noteworthy this month. The demand zone at 123.50 was tested last week before price went upwards by 180 pips, going above the demand zone at 125.00 briefly and then closing below it on Friday. As long as EUR is strong in itself, this cross would maintain some form of bullishness; otherwise it would eventually tumble. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “If you haven’t already experienced sideways market types for yourself, you will soon discover that they occur a lot more frequently and go for longer periods of time than most new traders realize. If you know how to trade in sideways conditions, you will find plenty of opportunity and you’ll also dramatically boost your chances for long term trading success.” – Dr. Van Tharp Source: www.tallinex.com
  21. The problem of trading in uncertain times crept up on the Mentor Program Alumni forum and I have been thinking about my answer. The original answer I gave is shown below – I think one of the things you need to be able to do is to define what uncertainty is. If you opt for volatility as a proxy for uncertainty then you see something quite interesting. The VIX which is known as the fear index and should reflect uncertainty is actually at sitting somewhere near its long term average, indicating that the players who make up this index don’t actually see any uncertainty and are not asking for an increase in the risk premium they demand. The same is true if you look at the historic volatility in the Dow which is also sitting at a 9 year low. From my perspective is the issue is not uncertainty in markets but uncertainty in decision making that is brought about by listening to external sources. If you switched off the news and all the associated commentary and simply looked at markets what would they tell you? What has caused me to think further about this overnight is the notion of what actually is the uncertainty that is being referred to. Is it a true physical uncertainty or a psychological perception brought on by exposure to the narratives of others? I had a look at Wikipedia for a more formal definition of uncertainty and it gave the following – Uncertainty is a situation which involves imperfect and/or unknown information. However, “uncertainty is an unintelligible expression without a straightforward description”.[1] It arises in subtly different ways in a number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, and information science. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable and/or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance and/or indolence. You will notice that the definition holds at its core the uncertainty inherent in predicting future events. In fact the science of probability is based around trying to deal with the fact that the universe is an uncertain place. However, uncertainty is the default setting in trading – the outcome of all trades is unknown until they are closed. It is this uncertainty that gives us the potential to be profitable, investments that have known or certain outcomes have no risk premium attached as such they offer little in the way of return (think bank deposit). This definition is therefore of little use in unpacking the notion of a change in traders uncertainty quotient. Granted we can respond to changes in volatility and we have tools to measure this but this is a reasonably common occurrence in trading and there are strategies that can be put in place to deal with this. In fact very basic position sizing and volatility based stops self-correct to deal with this sort of problem. So I am drawn back to the idea that what actually changes is the tone and intensity of the narratives that people surround themselves with. This ever increasing crescendo of noise is bound to take an effect on peoples psyche particularity at present when the world appears to be spinning out of control. However, notice I used the expression appears, I used this term because appearances and reality are not the same thing. What brings some equilibrium back to the noise of others is as always context, the markets tell a completely different story. Whilst the breathless gibbering that is the media may consider the present to be the most troubled time in history and need to shout about it at every opportunity neither that markets nor history itself would agree. This is the most salient point for traders with regards to what is considered uncertainty. Uncertainty is the environment within which we operate as a broad observation but beyond that it is actually the markets themselves that define what actually uncertainty is and they can do this by readily accessible metrics. When volatility and in turn risk premiums increase then we can say that uncertainty has increased. However, even here people try inject their own primitive narrative into events as the VIX which is a widely known measure of volatility is referred to as the fear index when it is nothing of the sort. However, this is the natural human desire for drama, we all have a friend or relative who is addicted to drama and those in the news media, particularly the financial arena and prime diva’s. So if you find yourself believing that uncertainty has increased but markets don’t agree then you will need to do something about what leaks into your brain. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of: http://tradinggame.com.au Traders’ Mindset: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html www.tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader
  22. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair consolidated last week, moving between the resistance line at 1.1250 and the support line at 1.1150. The resistance line at 1.1250 was tested several times, but it could not be broken to the upside, owing to the ongoing consolidation. A breakout is anticipated before the end of the week, which would most probably favor bulls as the resistance line at 1.1250 is broken to the upside, but the outlook on the market is bearish for June 2017. It should be noted that certain EUR pairs may not go bearish in June. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair went sideways last week, in the context of a downtrend. Price oscillated between the support level at 0.9700 and the resistance level at 0.9800. The support level at 0.9700 was tested several times and it could not be breached to the downside – and that is exactly what would happen this week – a breakout to the downside. This week, the Greenback would be weak while the Swissie would be strong: Hence further bearish movement in the market as the support level at 0.9700 is broken to the downside. This trend would reverse when EURUSD plummets in June. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD is bullish in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. The market was caught in an equilibrium phase from Monday to Wednesday, and then went southward on Thursday and Friday, dropping 200 pips from the distribution territory at 1.3000 to the accumulation territory at 1.2800 (a well-anticipated occurrence). The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week and for the month of June. Markets would generally be quiet in June, but GBP pairs would trend seriously, going bearish in most cases. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The market is neutral in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. There was no significant movement last week, but things could become significant before the end of this week. The demand level at 111.00 was tested many times last week, and without success. The most probable movement is southwards, as the demand levels at 111.00, 110.50 and 110.00 are breached to the downside. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There was no significant movement on EURJPY last week, save price went slightly bearish on Friday, in the context of an uptrend. The markets would generally be quiet in June 2017, while JPY pairs trend seriously nonetheless (just like GBP pairs). The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for June; plus the most probable direction is southwards. EUR/JPY would go downwards by at least, 300 pips within the next two weeks, and that would lead to the end of the current bullish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “My personal definition of successful money management is to limit losses while at the same time providing you with an adequate opportunity to realize a profit from the trade.” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
  23. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair went upwards by 290 pips last week, putting greater emphasis on the recent bullish bias that has formed this month. Price closed slightly above the support line at 1.1200 on Friday. The bullish momentum is currently strong, and the resistance lines at 1.1250, 1.1300 and 1.1350 may be tested this week. This however, does not rule out possibilities of pullbacks in the market, because EUR would rise against some currencies while falling against others. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF plummeted last week, losing 280 pips and closing below the resistance level at 0.9750. Price has fallen by 340 pips since May 12, and further fall is expected this week. The support levels at 0.9700, 0.9650 and 0.9600, may be tested this week, owing to the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. USDCHF would continue to trend southwards as long as EURUSD journeys northwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD was able to maintain its bullishness last week. The market closed above the accumulation territory at 1.3000 on Friday, going towards the distribution territory at 1.3050 (which may be tested or even breached to the upside). On the other hand, there is also a possibility of a deep bearish correction this week, because bearish movements may occur on certain GBP pairs, and the ripple effect may affect GBPUSD. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The market went bearish last week, thus invalidating the bullish signal that was formed earlier this month, and creating a new short-term bearish signal. Price has dropped roughly 290 pips last week, slashed the demand level at 110.50, and closed above the demand level at 111.00. The demand levels at 110.00 and 109.50 may try to reject any meaningful bearish movement, for the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week. Some form of reversal may be witnessed in the market. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross pair is still bullish, while being volatile in the long-term. Price has formed a zigzag pattern in the market: It went up on Monday and Tuesday, came down on Wednesday and Thursday, and then went upwards again on Friday. The present “buy” signal can push price towards the supply zones at 125.50, 126.00 and 127.50. These targets might even be exceeded, especially given the expected bullish movements on JPY pairs. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “New and creative trading ideas are important for a trader to be able to stay ahead of the crowd, so doing whatever you can to prepare your mind to consider new ideas will help to develop creative trading strategies that are essential to profitable trading.” – Joes Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
  24. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish in the medium-term, but neutral in the short-term. Price tested the support line at 1.0850, closing above the support line at 1.0900 on Friday. A movement above the resistance line at 1.1000 would strengthen the existing bullish bias, while a movement below the support line 1.0700 would threaten it. This week, further pullback is possible, but EURUSD would not go really bearish until the support line at 1.0700 is breached to the downside. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral USDCHF moved upwards by 230 pips last week, almost testing the resistance level at 1.0100, and then pulled back towards the support level at 1.0000. The upwards movement of the first few days of last week has overridden the last short-term bearish signal, and the pullback that was seen on Friday has scuttled the bullish effort of last week. Both the bull and the bear would not gain upper hand until price goes seriously out of balance. A protracted movement is needed to form a directional outlook. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The outlook on the Cable remains bullish, though price consolidated throughout last week. Further consolidation could result in a neutral outlook. The accumulation territory at 1.2850 has been tested and it may be breached to the downside. The current price action shows more and more noticeable weakness in the bullish trend, thereby increasing chances of a large pullback this week, especially when the accumulation territories at 1.2850 and 1.2800 are breached to the downside. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument initially went upwards last week, briefly going above the demand level at 114.00. Price got corrected lower by 80 pips on Thursday and Friday. The bias on the market is bullish, and it would remain so as long as price does not go below the demand level at 112.00. There is a possibility that the supply levels at 113.50, 114.00 and 114.50 would be targeted this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish EURJPY went sideways last week, in the context of an uptrend. There was a movement between the demand zone at 123.00 and the supply zone at 124.50. A rise in momentum is anticipated this week, which would emphasize the current Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, especially when the supply zone at 125.00 is overcome. The bullish bias would be jeopardized when price goes below the demand zone at 122.00. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “I’ve always believed that on every trader's journey, emotions are nice companions but lousy guides…This phrase is meant to remind us that life would be pretty darned boring if we never experienced any emotions. But more importantly in trading, decisions made when we are in a non-productive emotional state will likely produce results we don’t like. That’s where a great trading system comes to the rescue. It gives us a framework to calmly and coolly evaluate situations and make the right moves…” - D.R. Barton, Jr. Source: www.tallinex.com
  25. When I first went to university the initial week was filled with the usual getting to know the lay of the land such as how the library works (in a surprisingly mysterious way I might add), where various labs where and what the protocol for various subjects was. One of the most striking events was an orientation lecture we had in one subject. The lecturer who went onto to be one of my favourites because he knew his stuff, was blunt in his delivery and told students the truth. The last one of these characteristics would now not be tolerated because apparently telling students that they failed because they didn’t get off their arses would now be considered bullying or some form of oppression or would require the student to curl up in a foetal position in one of their safe spaces. He opined that the easiest way to survive first year was to turn up and do the work – if you did that then the chances were pretty good that you would get through. Do a bit more than that and you would do well. This must have been a friggen revelation to a large proportion of my year because over half failed the year. Much to their surprise simply hanging around the university cafe and the pub across the road did not magically allow the collective wisdom of those at the university to seep into their brains as if by a process of osmosis. The reason for me reminiscing about events locked in my dim dark past is simple – this pattern of laziness repeats itself year after year, decade after decade in people and people still wonder why their lives are like they are. Let me give you an example that is close to home. During our Mentor Program we generate a lot of content, each step of the course is mapped out to the day in such a way as to take someone from being a complete novice in the market to a competent trader at the end of six months. In effect, we make a pact with those doing the course, we will tell you everything we know with nothing held back and you commit to putting the time in to absorb what you are being told. To my way of thinking it is a fair deal besides you have paid for it so that should be sufficient motivation to put some effort in. Intriguingly some – many believe that simply looking at the notes occasionally and not putting in any effort at all will somehow translate into success. We are now several weeks into the course and there are attendees who have logged in twice. Yet I can imagine that they are completely surprised at their inability to master the most basic of trading concepts. Or that they have not instantly be transmuted into billionaires via some alchemic process. Central to all of this is the notion of how success in any arena is achieved. It should not be surprising that to achieve anything in any field you choose requires a certain amount of commitment and toil – this is simply the nature of the universe. Think of success as a natural system, it requires the addition of energy to keep it viable. If the system is not constantly restocked with effort, then eventually it will collapse. Yet, this lesson is lost on so many people who assume that either simply paying for something (think gym membership that is never used) or paying lip service and offering the usual platitudes will assist in mastering a task or achieving a goal. Harking back to my early days in first year there was one thing that was almost universal in those that failed. It was always someone else’s fault and that seems to be something that is universe among those that do not put in the effort. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of http://tradinggame.com.au Other quotes from professional traders are below: “The internet has been a boon for those seeking information. Within seconds you can find information on just about any subject that you want to know more about. Unfortunately, there is also a lot of misinformation mixed in with the results. This is very true in the trading world.”- Tradingeducators.com “The internet is an amazing thing – there are thousands of trading strategies described in forums, social media and YouTube videos etc. But how do you know if they work? The answer is much simpler than it seems. Test the strategy properly!” - Jasper Lawler “Listen don’t tell because the market cannot hear you… Trading is a profession where the ability to delay gratification is paramount to your success. Delaying gratification means that you can hold onto winning positions for longer.” – Chris Tate “This is the most salient point for traders with regards to what is considered uncertainty. Uncertainty is the environment within which we operate as a broad observation but beyond that it is actually the markets themselves that define what is actually uncertainty and they can do this by readily accessible metrics.” – Chris Tate www.tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader
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