Jump to content

Best Change

analyst75

Member
  • Content Count

    162
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

analyst75 last won the day on June 7 2018

analyst75 had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

-7 Poor

About analyst75

  • Rank
    Advanced Member
  • Birthday 06/18/1980

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    www.tallinex.com
  • Interests
    Trading
  1. I got an email over the weekend asking about the correlation if any between gold and the AUD and to be honest I didn’t know if there was any relationship between the two other than the long bow stories generated by economists. So I decided to have look. Whenever you start to look at the relationship between instruments you need to first define what you are looking at. The email I got implied that they looked the same at present therefore this implied some form of relationship. At a glance both instruments at present seemed to be forming some form of broad congestion but this raises the question as to whether this a relevant observation since it would be possible to find hundreds of instruments that currently displaying the same pattern. However, a simple analogy will suffice to put this into context. If you have two cars driving side by side down a road this does not imply that they have either come from the same place or more importantly mean that they are heading towards the same destination. Correlation between instruments is more nuanced than simply observing that they look the same. Correlation can be broken down into two parts, price correlation and returns correlation. Price correlation looks at whether prices move together with any degree of regularity and traders often stop their analysis here because they assume that if they move together then the impact of either an account or trading system will be the same. The issue with this is that it is not representative of the full picture. There is a second arm to correlations and this is the idea that returns between instruments can be correlated. It is important to note that it is possible for an instruments to have very high price correlations – in simple terms they look similar but have very different returns correlations. It is returns that matter to an account not whether something looks the same as something else. When breaking down correlations I like to ask a simple question – what does the value of $1 look like if invested into each instrument since this takes into account their differing historical returns and unpacks any link between these returns. As you can see from the chart the trajectory of $1 invested into either instrument shows at times a wildly diverging path which was exacerbated during gold’s Bull Run from 2008 and this raises the question for traders as to which possible returns would you like to expose your portfolio to. The issue here is not so much whether instruments look the same and have the same set up but rather what potential impact will trading them have upon your account. It is also quite easy to understand the differing nature of these returns by reference to the environment within which instruments exists. Metals such as gold are free from Government interference – they can find their own level. Currencies are not free from such intervention, the fate of the AUD is intimately linked to Government policy and this ultimately puts boundaries around where the currency can go to. For example it is impossible for a currency pair to start its run at $0.75 and for it to be $7.50 three months later – this sort of move is the preserve of equities. So outside of currently looking the same my answer to the question as to whether these two instruments share any meaningful connection for traders I would have to say no. There will also be someone who talks about the narrative behind the relationship between commodities and a given currency but my response to that is that this is an irrelevancy. Traders are not interested in stories or whether things look the same, they are or should be interested in returns. You can view the charts attached to the articles here: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/correlation-between-gold-and-the-aud/ Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of TradingGame.com.au This piece is ended with the 3 quotes below: “The main message I want traders to understand is how important the disciplined execution of a well thought out trading plan is in today's markets.” – Andy Jordan “When you are overconfident, you are ripe for a major setback in the market.” – Joe Ross “Every system begins in drawdown”. – Chris Tate www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets
  2. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The bias is neutral in the short-term and bearish in the long-term. Last week, price swung upwards and downwards without having a directional movement. That is going to change this week, as a prolonged directional movement is expected, which would most probably favor bulls, as price is approaching major support lines at 1.1250 and 1.1200 (areas where further bearish effort will be rejected). USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Although inversely, when compared to the EUR/USD, this pair is neutral in the short-term and bullish in the long-term. The market also moved upwards and downwards last week, without any clear direction. This week, a clear directional movement is anticipated and that would most probably favor bears. This does not mean there cannot be rally attempts, but it would meet a strong hindrance at the resistance levels of 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0150. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This is a bear market – both in the long and the short term. Bullish efforts have proven abortive as the market retains its bearishness. On Friday, price closed at 1.2744, and it may go further downwards towards the accumulation territory at 1.2700, and below that. However, the further southwards the price goes, the higher the probability of a bullish breakout when it does happen, and that will be strong when it happens. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY is slightly bullish – with a kind of precarious Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further rally from here will result in a stronger Bullish Confirmation Pattern; while a southwards movement from here will result in nullification of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern, which may harbinger a “sell” signal in the market. Either of the aforementioned scenario will materialize this week, for a rise in momentum is expected. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This is a neutral market, which has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. The consolidation phase is bounded by the supply zone at 130.00 and the demand zone at 126.00. As long as price is within that supply zone and that demand zone, the consolidation phase will exist. On the other hand, there should be an end to the consolidation phase before the end of the week. It is after that that winners will be determined; either the bull or the bear. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This is a flat market, which has been particularly flat since the middle of November 2018. There is supposed to be an end to the flatness this week, because a rise in the momentum of the market is expected. The most probable direction would be skywards when a breakout does occur, because there is a high probability that GBP will gain enormous stamina. The supply zones at 146.00, 146.50 and 147.00 might be reached soon. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading is like playing chess; you can learn a lot about it by reading books but if you really want to get good in it, you actually have to do it on your own. Practice is necessary to becoming successful in many professions; and trading is one of them!” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
  3. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The bias is neutral in the short-term and bearish in the long-term. Last week, price swung upwards and downwards without having a directional movement. That is going to change this week, as a prolonged directional movement is expected, which would most probably favor bulls, as price is approaching major support lines at 1.1250 and 1.1200 (areas where further bearish effort will be rejected). USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Although inversely, when compared to the EUR/USD, this pair is neutral in the short-term and bullish in the long-term. The market also moved upwards and downwards last week, without any clear direction. This week, a clear directional movement is anticipated and that would most probably favor bears. This does not mean there cannot be rally attempts, but it would meet a strong hindrance at the resistance levels of 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0150. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This is a bear market – both in the long and the short term. Bullish efforts have proven abortive as the market retains its bearishness. On Friday, price closed at 1.2744, and it may go further downwards towards the accumulation territory at 1.2700, and below that. However, the further southwards the price goes, the higher the probability of a bullish breakout when it does happen, and that will be strong when it happens. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY is slightly bullish – with a kind of precarious Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further rally from here will result in a stronger Bullish Confirmation Pattern; while a southwards movement from here will result in nullification of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern, which may harbinger a “sell” signal in the market. Either of the aforementioned scenario will materialize this week, for a rise in momentum is expected. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This is a neutral market, which has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. The consolidation phase is bounded by the supply zone at 130.00 and the demand zone at 126.00. As long as price is within that supply zone and that demand zone, the consolidation phase will exist. On the other hand, there should be an end to the consolidation phase before the end of the week. It is after that that winners will be determined; either the bull or the bear. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This is a flat market, which has been particularly flat since the middle of November 2018. There is supposed to be an end to the flatness this week, because a rise in the momentum of the market is expected. The most probable direction would be skywards when a breakout does occur, because there is a high probability that GBP will gain enormous stamina. The supply zones at 146.00, 146.50 and 147.00 might be reached soon. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading is like playing chess; you can learn a lot about it by reading books but if you really want to get good in it, you actually have to do it on your own. Practice is necessary to becoming successful in many professions; and trading is one of them!” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
  4. THERE IS NO MAGIC “Your trading methodology has to make sense for you even if it’s the opposite of what makes sense for other people. Choices made in developing your approach to trading should suit you personally to minimize internal conflict. Only then will you have the confidence to remain true to its development and its execution during tough times. The long-term advantage of developing your own system from scratch (rather than trading someone else’s system) assures you of high compatibility with your beliefs, personality, edges, and objectives. That compatibility becomes one of your sustainable edges. As Curtis Faith of Turtle fame noted: “It’s not about the system, it’s about the trader’s ability to execute the system.” – (Source: VanTharp.com) LB and I have just wrapped up the final in our series on full time trading. For the most part they have been enjoyable except for one twat who complained that it was unprofessional of LB to not present when she was suffering from severe laryngitis. Presenting for the first time in years is an interesting thing as the expectations of those you present to also change over time. This particular series could be summarised as all the mistakes I have made in trading and the solutions I have found such as they are. One of the things I have learnt over the past few decades is that there is no magic. Trading is a grinding profession where your central tenet is not to go broke waiting for the next big move. I think in part some attendees were waiting for the magic. That point in the seminar where you do a grand reveal of your magic strategy that never has a losing trade which means you can quit your job tomorrow and start trading full time with nothing other than a credit card because CFD providers will now in their wisdom allow you to fund your account with credit and earn frequent flyer points. Regrettably the field of investing has been tainted by endless shonks who have polluted the thinking of people before they even set foot in the market. Before writing this piece, I Googled trading bitcoin for a living and got 35,900,000 returns. Certainly not all of them relate to trading bitcoin or any other crypto full time but if even 10% do then then that’s a staggering 3.5 million sites promising people that they can give up their day job and start trading overnight. The central theme of these sorts of sites and it is not limited to cryptos is that you can trade full time with very limited capital. And you can do this because you will never have a losing trade. Your equity curve will be a linear trajectory that soars from the bottom left hand corner of the chart to infinity without ever breaking stride. I can understand why this sort of thing has permeated the thinking of new traders. Whilst this sounds seductive it ignores many of the key realities of trading the foremost of which is that trading does not produce linear returns. We encounter a feature of equity curves called drawdown. All trading systems generate drawdowns – in a very general sense if you are a trend following you expect to have a drawdown of between 15% to 25% once per year. As an example, consider the equity curve below. This is the equity curve of Dunn Capital a money manager that uses trend following as its basic tool. You see decades of outperformance punctuated by drawdowns. There is an inviolate relationship between performance and drawdown, if you are swinging fr the fences you need to expect to be struck out a lot. Irrespective of the trading system drawdown is a fact of life for traders – it can only be avoided by not trading. If someone tells you that their equity curve never draws down, then they are a liar. It really is that simple. The implication for those seeking to trade full time is that your first drawdown will coincide with your move to full time trading. This is a natural feature of systems, they cut their losses and then let their profits run. There is a timing dislocation between these two events that results in the account value immediately slipping. The problem is that this occurs at a time when you are most economically and emotionally vulnerable, it is also a problem because most new traders are undercapitalised. They simply don’t have enough money because they have not thought their transitions through and they may or may not have been infected by the thinking that you can give up your day job and earn 100k a year on a bank of 50k. It is at this point in a seminar that I can see how people begin to sag because it begins to dawn on them that they need much more than think to survive as a trader. However, I think they are missing the bigger picture since the move to full time trading does not have to be an all-in proposition. The move can occur gradually over time as your capital grows and you acquire more skill. And along the way your life begins to change in small but incremental amounts. You may even reach a point where you stop believe in magic and start believing in your own ability to slowly and inexorably change your own life. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of the author. Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/there-is-no-magic/ I end this piece with the quotes below: “Just coming back from vacation where we’ve been doing a lot of hiking in the mountains, here’s an analogy. You’re standing on a peak of a mountain looking at an even higher peak. But to get there you first have to go down that small valley…no way around it! It's the same in trading, so as long as the size of the drawdown is within your expectations, you can and should relax when you’re in a drawdown. It's just a necessity you have to endure to get those profits. So understanding and accepting Drawdowns as part of this business will make your life as a trader much easier!” – Marco Meyer (Source: Tradingeducators.com) “Having said that drawdowns are still making me uncomfortable. I don't like them at all and each time I'm in a big one I'm having the same doubts and troubles most of you probably have too. But knowing that actually nothing is wrong helps a lot to make it through these times. Without that knowledge and understanding, you not only have the doubts but you allow them to win over, follow them and then probably stop trading at the worst time possible.” – Marco Meyer (Source: Tradingeducators.com) www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets
  5. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD is in a bearish trend – which started about 2 weeks ago. Price went downwards by roughly 160 pips last week, having gone down by 250 pips since October 15. Further bearish movement is anticipated, that would move price towards the support lines at 1.1350 (which was previously tested and will be tested again), 1.1300, and 1.1250. However, a very strong selling pressure is needed to break the support line at 1.1250 to the downside. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish There remains a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on USDCHF, which has been in place for at least, 4 weeks. Since the current bullish movement began in September 21, price have moved forwards by about 470 pips. Last week, there was no significant bullish movement, and price closed on a bearish note on Friday, which was presumed to be a temporary reversal in the context of an uptrend. The bullish journey is expected to resume soon. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The movement on Cable is nearly similar to the movement on EURUSD – the only difference being that the movement on the former is faster than the movement on the latter. Since October 12, price has dropped at least, 450 pips, as the market makes high lows and lower lows. Higher lows allow traders to enter short at better prices, and it is a pattern that is expected to continue as Cable targets the accumulation territories at 1.2800, 1.2750 and 1.2700. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The market is bearish, especially in the short-term; and in spite of bulls’ effort, a bearish signal has already been generated and this will become more significant as the market goes further southwards (a trend that is expected this week and next week). There would be pauses and transitory rallies on the way, but the demand levels at 111.50, 111.00 and 110.50 would be reached. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This is a classic example of a bearish movement. Since September 21, price has dropped roughly 600 pips, thus giving a rise to a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern. The market will continue its drop this week, as JPY continues to exert its energy. There is going to be lots of opposition to the bearish trend once price reaches the demand zone at 126.50, nonetheless. But with enough selling pressure, the demand zone will be breached to the downside. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There was a massive drop on the GBPJPY, which happened last week, and which ended the protracted ranging movement that was seen in the latter part of September 2018 and the early part of October 2018. The last week drop was over 400 pips, as the weakness in GBP was too favorable to the stoing JPY. Price closed on a bearish note on Friday, following some shallow upwards bounces. Further drop of at least, 250 pips is anticipated this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Markets go up and markets go down. Sometimes they go up a lot and sometimes they go down a lot.” – Chris Tate Source: www.tallinex.com Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (October 27 - November 2, 2018) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD is in a bearish trend – which started about 2 weeks ago. Price went downwards by roughly 160 pips last week, having gone down by 250 pips since October 15. Further bearish movement is anticipated, that would move price towards the support lines at 1.1350 (which was previously tested and will be tested again), 1.1300, and 1.1250. However, a very strong selling pressure is needed to break the support line at 1.1250 to the downside. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish There remains a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on USDCHF, which has been in place for at least, 4 weeks. Since the current bullish movement began in September 21, price have moved forwards by about 470 pips. Last week, there was no significant bullish movement, and price closed on a bearish note on Friday, which was presumed to be a temporary reversal in the context of an uptrend. The bullish journey is expected to resume soon. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The movement on Cable is nearly similar to the movement on EURUSD – the only difference being that the movement on the former is faster than the movement on the latter. Since October 12, price has dropped at least, 450 pips, as the market makes high lows and lower lows. Higher lows allow traders to enter short at better prices, and it is a pattern that is expected to continue as Cable targets the accumulation territories at 1.2800, 1.2750 and 1.2700. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The market is bearish, especially in the short-term; and in spite of bulls’ effort, a bearish signal has already been generated and this will become more significant as the market goes further southwards (a trend that is expected this week and next week). There would be pauses and transitory rallies on the way, but the demand levels at 111.50, 111.00 and 110.50 would be reached. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This is a classic example of a bearish movement. Since September 21, price has dropped roughly 600 pips, thus giving a rise to a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern. The market will continue its drop this week, as JPY continues to exert its energy. There is going to be lots of opposition to the bearish trend once price reaches the demand zone at 126.50, nonetheless. But with enough selling pressure, the demand zone will be breached to the downside. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There was a massive drop on the GBPJPY, which happened last week, and which ended the protracted ranging movement that was seen in the latter part of September 2018 and the early part of October 2018. The last week drop was over 400 pips, as the weakness in GBP was too favorable to the stoing JPY. Price closed on a bearish note on Friday, following some shallow upwards bounces. Further drop of at least, 250 pips is anticipated this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Markets go up and markets go down. Sometimes they go up a lot and sometimes they go down a lot.” – Chris Tate Source: www.tallinex.com
  6. THESE 4 TRAITS WILL MAKE TRADERS SUCCESSFUL If you have a passion for trading, Dr. Brett Steenbarger has some choice words for you: you're not going to make it. Instead, traders need to be passionate about markets. It may sound like a minor distinction, but it's not. In decades of working with billionaire hedge fund managers and traders, he's found that traders that are passionate about trading don't put in the work and trade too much. To be successful trading, Dr. Steenbarger has learned: A rule of thumb for how traders should control losses so that they never lose more in a morning than they can make in an afternoon, more in a day than they can make in a week and more in a week than they can make in a month; Why traders should not just focus on minimizing their weaknesses, but also maximizing their strengths; A simple trading journal that will help you improve each day; and That the best traders are ones that embrace losses and use them to become better. Author: Dr. Brett Steenbarger Source: https://blog.topsteptrader.com/brett-steenbarger-limit-up-futures-trading www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets.
  7. TIMELY EXIT “Successful Trading Is Not About Being Right.” – VTI What is your tolerance for pain? Consider the following scenario. You have 10% of your account balance on the line. For the past two days, prices have been going in the direction you had anticipated, but today, an announcement was made that caused a market move that caused all your profits to be wiped out in an hour. What will you do? See if prices will move back to where you are okay again? At times like these, it is useful to have a clearly defined trading plan with a specific exit strategy. Trading is inherently uncertain. You never know exactly what will happen next. That’s what makes the business exciting to some traders but nerve wracking to others. How you handle adverse events that make prices move against you depends on your personality. The best way to protect your capital is to use protective stops. When formulating your trading plan, you must decide how much pain you can tolerate. How much money can you lose before you have to exit the trade? You can set this exit point as a formal stop loss, you can use the automatic settings on your trading platform to set a stop, or you can use a mental stop (not recommended). The problem with a formal stop loss procedure, whether it is a formal order or an automatic setting on your trading platform, is that a transitory change in price can ‘stop you out.’ if the placement of your stop loss does not adequately account for volatility. It’s hard to know how far a stock may move and a temporary drop can ruin your trading plan when a protective stop is not set properly. Mental stops may be more useful, but you run the risk of not being able to exercise your mental stop (think heart attack, nervous breakdown, stroke, personal emergency, computer failure, etc.). You can decide how far a stock price must move against you before you will liquidate the position. When prices reach the exit point, you can decide whether the low price is transitory or represents a significant change in trend. You can then exit the trade. This all sounds good in theory, but depending on your personality, you may not be able to carry out this strategy. If you have trouble controlling your emotions and you use a mental stop, for example, you may have trouble closing the trade when it reaches your exit point. Some people panic and out of fear don’t close their position when their mental stop is reached. These people may need to impose the proper amount of discipline on their trading actions by using an electronic stop or a formal stop-loss order. Minimizing trading losses is the hallmark of successful trading, but not all traders are equal when it comes to their ability to trade decisively under strain. If you want to trade profitably, you have to work around your personality. If you are cool headed, disciplined, and are willing to take the risk even under the most stressful conditions, you can use mental stops to protect your capital. But if you are easily shaken by choppy market action, you might want to use electronic, automatic stops to protect yourself. Whatever you do, however, minimize losses as much as possible. It’s the only way to trade profitably in the long run. Author: Joe Ross Source https://www.tradingeducators.com/edition-733 The article is ended with 3 quotes below: “Getting out of trades too early with tiny profits very often is a sure road to bankruptcy. Sure it feels good to take some off the table right away…but it’s hardly ever successful in the long run.” - Marco Mayer “To make money out of these still requires good management. It is always challenging to see some traders make money from a trade while some traders lose money from the very same trade.” – Joe Ross “Don’t let those losses lead to mindset traps that can stop you from taking the next trade. Change the way you think about your loss, and you’ll regain your motivation. I guarantee it.” – Louise Bedford www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets.
  8. Do you want to be a successful trader? Then you need to unlock your potential and develop the right habits and routines. Experience shows that people want to keep doing what they are doing, while expecting different results. In trading, that means they carry on trading in a certain way even when it brings poor results. Making a career out of trading means you have to identify what doesn’t work for you, and stop doing it. But that’s not easy – nobody likes being told they are wrong. Your mind is the biggest obstacle that you need to overcome. It prevents you from following trading plans and deceives you into disobeying winning rules because of a transitory setback, thus missing great opportunities to make decent profits. You can only unlock your trading potential through the realities of trading. Unlock Your Potential with the Realities of Trading (almost free of charge): http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/unlockpotential/index.html www.tallinex.com wants you to become profitable
  9. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish As the beginning of last week, the pair saw a considerable increase throughout its first and second days of trading. Price later dropped below the resistance line at 1.1600, closing below it (and that signified a drop of more than 170 pips from last week’s high). This month, the outlook on EUR pairs is bullish, which means EUR would rise against most major currencies, thereby reversing the current bearish bias on the market. However, EUR may not be able to rally versus JPY. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral The market has been moving sideways since June – hence the current neutral outlook. Price has been moving between the resistance level at 1.0050 and the support level at 0.9850, at least on a long-term basis. For the neutral bias to end, price would need to move out of these boundaries, and that is expected to create a directional bias. However, it may take several trading days (even a few weeks), for a strong, directional movement to occur. This is because volatility in the markets would be generally low this month, save in certain cases. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The bias on GBPUSD is bearish and it would continue to be bearish, at least for this week. Price ranged from Monday to Wednesday, and then dropped further southwards on Thursday and Friday. The drop may continue this week, as price targets the accumulation territories at 1.2950 and 1.2900 (which may even be exceeded). A considerable amount of volatility will be witnessed on GBP pairs, while volatility will be low on most other pairs. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The situation on this trading instrument is tricky. It is bullish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. The bullish bias will soon change to a bearish bias (while the short-term neutrality will evaporate), because the outlook on JPY pairs is strong bearish for this week, and for the whole month of August. In fact, price is expected to shed a minimum of 300 pips this month, reaching the demand levels of 110.00, 100.00 and 109.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The market initially went upwards, reaching the supply zone at 131.00. Nonetheless, further upwards movement is rejected at that supply zone as price slid downwards by roughly 240 pips, closing near the demand zone at 128.50 on Friday. Since there is Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, further downwards movement is anticipated this week, which would enable price to reach the demand zones at 128.50, 128.00 and 127.50. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There is a “sell” signal in the market. Price first went upwards by 150 pips last week, reaching the supply zone at 147.00. It even moved slightly above that supply zone before dropping by 240 pips; hence the “sell” signal. Given the weakness of GBP, and the bearish outlook on JPY pairs, the most probable movement this week, is downwards. The demand zones at 144.50, 144.00 and 143.50 would easily be reached. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading in itself is a thrilling activity, and many non-traders never have a chance to experience that level of excitement.” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
  10. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Price made a bullish attempt on Monday, but started coming down afterwards. The support line at 1.1600 was tested and price bounced off it, closing above another support line at 1.1700. The market is neutral, and that status will continue as long as price oscillates between the support line at 1.1550 and the resistance line at 1.1800. However, the neutrality in the market will soon end, and ensuing movement could most probably favor bulls. This means a break above the resistance line at 1.1800 is possible before the end of the week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral This pair also went downwards at the beginning of last week, and then rallied around the middle of the week, only to come downward again at the end of the week. Price closed below the resistance level at 0.9950, threatening to go further downwards. The bias on the market is eventually neutral, and it would remain so until the support level at 0.9850 is breached to the downside. The most probable direction is southwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD is a weak trading instrument. Since April 14, price has been going downwards. Price moved briefly below the accumulation territory at 1.3000, and then rallied by 170 pips, almost reaching the distribution territory at 1.3150. The bias remains essentially bearish (but perpetual bullish effort could threaten the bearish bias). There are additional distribution territories 1.3200, 1.3250 and 1.3300. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish After testing the supply level at 113.00 several times, a bearish correction was started, which made the price close below the supply level at 111.50 on July 20 (a drop of 150 pips). The bias is bullish in the long-term, but going bearish in the short-term. Things will go completely bearish when price moves further downwards by another 200 pips, reaching the demand levels at 111.00, 110.50 and 110.00, and going further downwards. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The market had been going upwards since June 28 until recently. The recent bias is bullish but there is a high possibility of price going bearish. Price has made a bearish U-turn, after almost reaching the supply zone at 132.00. It is expected that price will continue to go downwards this week, thereby rendering the recent bullish bias invalid and reaching the demand zones at 130.00, 129.50 and 129.00. Those demand zones may even be exceeded before the end of July. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, as a result of a drop of 300 pips last week. The drop has already generated a bearish signal in the market, brought about by the perceived weakness in GBP, and the strength in JPY. This week (even till the end of July), the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish, and that means GBPJPY also will experience further bearish movement, which would enable it to reach the demand zones at 145.50, 140.00 and 135.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “A surprising insight for me in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards was that most of the top traders he interviewed are 1-trick ponies: they do one thing — and they do it very well. Their success was built upon their ability to discover what others overlooked. I concluded that ‘doing one thing well’ would immediately simplify my trading life and could eventually evolve one thing into an important trading edge.” – VTI Source: www.tallinex.com
  11. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish In the long-term, the pair is bearish, and last week was bearish too. Price dropped by 140 pips, moved briefly below the support line at 1.1650, and then closed above it. This week, there could be a test of the support lines at 1.1650 and 1.1600, but they may not be broken to the downside because price has a high probability of going northwards, reaching the resistance lines at 1.1700, 1.1750 and 1.1800. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, owing to a sudden surge of stamina in USD, the pair skyrocketed, reaching the high of 1.0066. The test of that high is significant because the last time price reached that level was May 2017. Since the high of the year (1.0066) was tested, price has shown a sharp reversal, shedding 60 pips and closing at 1.0002 on July 13. Price might attempt to go further upwards, but it would encounter stiff opposition around the high of 1.0066. Even there will be stiffer opposition above the high of the year, like the resistance levels at 1.0150, 1.0200 and 1.0250. Movement towards the south may be more visible this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish In the long-term, Cable is bearish, and last week was bearish too. From the distribution territory at 1.3350, price dropped by 250 pips, and almost touched the accumulation territory at 1.3100, and then closed above the accumulation territory at 1.3200. This week, there could be a test of the accumulation territories at 1.3200 and 1.3150, but they may not be broken to the downside because price has a high probability of going northwards, reaching the distribution territories at 1.3250, 1.3300 and 1.3350. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Last week was bullish. In fact, the market has been going upwards since March 26, and it has gained close to 800 pips. A clean bullish run has taken price towards the supply level at 112.50 and there is a lot of trading activity around that level, as bears are making attempt to effect a bearish reversal. There are demand levels at 112.00, 111.50 and 111.00. However, price could go upwards to reach the supply levels at 113.50, 114.00 and 115.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross has become a bull market in the medium-term. Price gained 180 pips last week (it has gained over 650 pips since May 25), and managed to closed above the demand zone at 131.00. Short trades are not recommend in this market, owing to the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in it, and owing to the bullish outlook on EUR for this week and next. Price is thus expected to continue going upwards, reaching the supply zones at 131.50, 132.00 and 132.50. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish GBPJPY is a volatile market, though with a Bullish Confirmation Pattern present in it. This month has been bullish so far (the bullish movement started late June and it has been upheld till now). Having gained 500 pips since June 28, there is still much room for bulls to shine. This week, another 200 pips can be gained amid high volatility. Nonetheless, this does not rule out possibility of bears overpowering bulls along the way. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “You should not draw the conclusion that winning traders are reckless. They aren't. They approach trading systematically. They develop clearly defined trading plans and they trade them. They wait for market conditions that increase their odds of success. But most of all, they have a positive attitude. They know that if they do their homework and make enough trades, they will take home a profit.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
  12. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. Last week, after testing the support line at 1.1600, price went upwards by 150 pips, to test the resistance line at 1.1750. Price can still go further upwards towards the resistance lines at 1.1800 and 1.1850. However, a strong buying pressure is needed to reach the resistance line at 1.1850. A southwards movement from here would render this expectation invalid. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral The market is virtually flat. Since the past two weeks, price has moved between the support level at 0.9850 and the resistance level at 1.0000. As long as price moves between the aforementioned support and resistance levels, things will remain neutral. This week, it is not likely that price would break the support level at 0.9850 to the downside; or break the resistance level at 1.0000 to the upside, because much volatility is not expected in the market this week. However, before the end of the month, a rise in momentum is expected, which would create a directional bias. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD Is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term, just like EURUSD. Since testing the accumulation territory at 1.3100, price has gone upwards by roughly 200 pips, closing above the accumulation territory at 1.3250 and aiming the distribution territory at 1.3300. Nonetheless, the major outlook remains bearish, which means the market needs to gain, at least, another 300 pips, before the bias can turn bullish. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Since March 26, the market has been going northwards slowly and gradually. Right now, the bullish bias is weak, although bears have not been able to push price lower significantly. There was an attempt to go south last week, after the supply level at 111.00 was tested. Price closed slightly below the supply level at 110.50, and it may go towards the demand level at 110.00, where bearish effort should be contained, just for the bullish bias to be saved. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This cross is bullish in the short-term, and neutral in the long-term. Some bullish effort started around the end of June, and it has been upheld till now. In the short-term, price could move upwards and downwards, within the supply zone at 131.00 and the demand zone at 128.00. Price may not be able to go beyond these boundaries because much volatility is not expected this month, unless some fundamental figure causes a radical change in the market. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Since June 28, this trading instrument has been going upwards, leading to a bullish bias in the short-term (a Bullish Confirmation Pattern). Last week ended on a bullish note and it is probable that price would continue going upwards, reaching the supply zones at 147.00, 147.50 and 148.00. There would be a reversal along the way, which would, nevertheless, not be serious enough to invalidate the ongoing bullish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “But in trading, often the best solution is the simplest...” - Michael Carr Source: www.tallinex.com
  13. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market is bearish, but price was not able to go downwards seriously last week. Thus the market is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. A strong opposition was particularly met at the support line at 1.1550, after which price bounced off the support line. However, that would turn out to be an opportunity to go short at a better price, for the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week. One major task for bears is to break the support line at 1.1550 to the downside, as price goes further downwards. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral The bias on this pair has become neutral, especially in the face of the fact that USDCHF was characterized by trendlessness throughout June. Last week, price went upwards, to move above the resistance level at 0.9950, and then moved below that resistance (now close to the support level at 0.9900). As long as EURUSD remains weak, there will not be a significant bearish movement on USDCHF pair this week (although the pair will eventually give way to bearish pressures before the end of July). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market went smoothly downwards, testing the accumulation territory at 1.3050 (over 200 pips of bearish movement). After testing the accumulation territory at 1.3050, price rallied seriously and closed above the accumulation territory at 1.3200. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week, so a movement towards the accumulation territories at 1.3200, 1.3150 and 1.3100 are highly anticipated. There could even be a movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3100. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish A Bullish Confirmation Pattern is present on the USDJPY. In the short-term, price rallied from the demand level at 109.50, to close above the demand level at 110.50 on Friday. This week, there could be further upwards movement towards the supply levels at 111.00 and 111.50. However, price is not expected to go further upwards than that because the outlook on certain JPY pairs is bearish for the month of July. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. In short-term, a movement above the demand zone at 129.00 has resulted in a ‘buy” signal, which could enable price to reach the supply zones at 129.50 and 130.000, However, any movement to the upside would be limited, partly because of the ongoing weakness in EUR, which means price could also be retraced lower before the end of this week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Owing to the present Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, the bias on this trading instrument is bearish, but the strong bullish surge that was witnessed on Friday has posed a threat to the bearish outlook. On Thursday and Friday, price gained 250 pips, after testing the demand zone at 144.00. Should price gain another 200 pips this week, things will turn completely bullish. On the other hand, a downward movement from here would save the bearish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “There are opportunities… It’s a matter of seeking them out, in the biggest playground of all... the markets.” – Louise Bedford Source: www.tallinex.com
  14. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market swung upwards and downwards last week, without a directional movement. Nevertheless, the major bias remains bearish, and the outlook on EUR pairs is mostly bearish for this week. It is possible that price will test the support lines at 1.1600, 1.1550 (which were previously tested last week). Price may also reach the support line at 1.1500, and possibly breach it to the downside. But that will require a heavy selling pressure. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Price went sideways from Monday to Wednesday, and fell on Thursday and Friday, corroborating the outgoing bearish outlook on the market. Both USDCHF and EURUSD are currently bearish: But protracted bearish pressure on the latter may help a bullish signal to be generated on the former. There are support levels at 0.9850 and 0.9800. There are also resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9950. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, price went further southwards, shedding 160 pips and almost testing the accumulation territory at 1.3100. There was an upwards bounce on Thursday, but that would be an opportunity to sell short at higher prices (unless the distribution territory at 1.3400 is breached to the upside). GBP pairs (as well as other major pairs) will experience high volatility this week, and also in the first week of July. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The long-term bias is bullish, but the short-term bias is bearish. Throughout last week, price meandered between the demand level at 109.50 and the supply level at 111.00. Should price continue to move within the confines of the aforementioned demand and supply levels, the short-term bias would remain neutral. Once the confines are breached, a directional movement will resume, and it could most likely favor bulls. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Just like its USDJPY counterpart, this cross mostly ranged last week (though the recent bias on the market is bearish). For the ranging movement to end, it is either price will breach the demand zone at 127.00 to the downside (going further downwards), or price would need to breach the supply zone at 129.00 to the upside (going further upwards). One of these conditions must be met for the bearish bias to be supported or invalidated; otherwise the trend would become neutral. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross underwent a heavy selling pressure on July 18 and 19, but bulls pushed price upwards on July 20 and 21. There remains a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it would be invalidated only when price moves upwards by 500 pips from here. On the other hand, price could continue falling towards the demand zones at 145.00, 144.50 and 144.00. Price could even go further downwards than that. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading is a process-oriented endeavor for those who are serious about becoming and remaining a consistently successful trader.” – Dr. Woody Johnson Source: www.tallinex.com
  15. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market began the current strong bearish movement in April. This month (especially from early June), price consolidated till June 14, before the large pullback we are currently witnessing. The large pullback has put more emphasis on the dominant bearish bias; thus price is expected to go further southwards this week, reaching the support lines at 1.1600 (an easy target), 1.1550 and 1.1500. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair is bearish in the long-term, but bullish in the short-term. It is somewhat weird that both USDCHF and EURUSD have been bearish for some time, but the situation seems about to change. On June 14, there was a sudden bullish breakout, which was strong enough to bring about a short-term bullish signal. There is a possibility that price could keep on going northwards this week, reaching the resistance levels at 1.0000 (an important level), 1.0050 and 1.0100. However, an exceptionally strong buying pressure would be needed for the resistance level at 1.0100 to be reached. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish In the first week of June, Cable consolidated in the context of a downtrend. The same thing happened last week…. before the bearish movement that occurred on Thursday, which points to bears’ supremacy. The weakness in the market is currently visible and since the outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this month, further southwards movement is expected, which would enable price to reach the accumulation territories at 1.3250, 1.3200 and 1.3150. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY managed to go upwards last week, and it was able to close above the demand level at 110.50 on Friday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which points to the possibility of price going towards the supply levels at 111.00, 111.50 and 112.00. Nonetheless, the further northwards the market goes, the greater the potential of a strong pullback, which can happen before the end of the week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The pullback that occurred on April 14 points to the fact that bears are still a force to reckon with. The major bias on the market is bearish, and since EUR is currently weak, price is supposed to continue moving downwards. The outlook on JPY is bearish for this week – another factor that may contribute to continuous weakness in the market. The next targets are the demand zones at 128.00, 127.50 and 127.00. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument simply moved in a range last week. Price ranged between the supply zone at 148.00 and the demand zone at 146.00. This week, either the supply zone or the demand zone would be breached forcefully as price assumes a strong, directional movement. The most likely direction is bearish (which may invalidate the extant bullish bias), and that may enable price to reach the demand zones at 146.50, 146.00 and 145.50. Source: www.tallinex.com
×
×
  • Create New...