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analyst75

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  1. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, this pair rose from the support line at 1.2250 and tested the resistance line at 1.2550 (a movement of 300 pips). After the resistance line at 1.2550 had been tested, price got corrected by 140 pips, closing below the resistance line at 1.2450 and now very close to the support line at 1.2400. The current bias on the market is bullish, but that can change this week, because there is a strong likelihood that EUR pairs would become very weak this week. Rallies would be contained at the resistance line at 1.2550, and price could drop towards the support lines at 1.2350 and 1.2300 this week. These targets could even be exceeded. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF remained under strong bearish pressure last week. Price consolidated on Monday, and started coming downwards on Tuesday, to reach the demand level at 0.9200 on Friday. The upwards bounce that is in place was made possible by a sharp pullback on EURUSD. Bearish attempts would be halted at the support level of 0.9200; while price targets the resistance levels at 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400. However, there could be a limited bullish movement because USD would not be very strong this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable is not currently in a bullish mode. The rally that was witnessed last week might have led to a bullish bias if not for the pullback that occurred on Friday. Price rose indeed – from the accumulation territory at 1.3800, nearly reaching the distribution territory at 1.4150, but further northward journey was halted. The distribution territory at 1.4150 has already become a barrier to further bullish movement: The market is supposed to move downwards this week. The outlook on GBP pairs is somewhat bearish for this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USD/JPY was engaged in a smooth, clean bearish movement last week. Since January 9, the market has gone downwards by 720 pips (losing at least, 300 pips this month alone). There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is expected that price should be able to go below the demand levels at 106.00, 105.50 and 105.00, and remain below it… The outlook on JPY pairs remains bearish. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish From the top of 137.50, this cross has nosedived by at least, 550 pips. Last week, the movement of the market was a kind of choppy and sideways (in the context of a downtrend), but bears were able to pull their weight, since price closed below the supply zone at 132.00. The outlook on the market remains bearish, and that might even be aided by a weak EUR. The demand zones at 131.50 and 131.00 are the initial targets for the week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish On February 2, the market reach the monthly high of 156.50, and it has dropped 800 pips since then, reaching a low of 148.00. Although the market movement is rough, the bearishness in the market is clearly visible. This week, the market should continue moving southwards, but not without attacks from bulls (which could cause temporary upwards bounces in). The targets for the week are located at 148.50, 148.00 and 147.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “A trading edge is created by a harmonious combination of choices made by each trader to exploit recurring market inefficiencies and thereby create a long-term mathematical advantage. The unique objectives, beliefs, and skills of each trader are key to all edge choices and to integrating the edge into an effective trading methodology.” – VTI Source: www.tallinex.com
  2. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair is bearish in the short-term, for price went southwards throughout last week, moving downwards from the resistance line at 1.2450, and nearly touching the support line at 1.2200. The support line would be breached to the downside, as other support lines at 1.2150 and 1.2100 are aimed at. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week, and so, the probability of a southwards movement is very high. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish The outlook on the market is bearish – even in the long term. Throughout last week, there were rally attempts in the context of a downtrend. The current bullish effort may be temporary, because price may drop from here, to test the support levels at 0.9350 and 0.9300 (this week). However, a movement above the supply level at 0.9500 could result in a nice bullish outlook on the market. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This market shed 300 pips last week, closing below the distribution territory at 1.3800. Price has gone downwards by over 430 pips since February 2, creating a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week (save EURGBP, which is expected to be going upwards), and thus the accumulation territories at 1.3750, 1.3700 and 1.3650 could be reached this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY is bearish – though the market environment is quite choppy. After several tests, price was able to go below the supply level at 108.50, and it is currently targeting the demand level at 108.00, which could be breached to the downside, as price goes further southwards. The bearish outlook would be intact as long as price does not go above the supply levels 110.00 and 110.50, which could, however, be tested. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Last week, there was a massive drop on this cross. Price went southwards by 500 pips, reaching the demand zone at 132.00. On Friday, there was an upwards bounce in the market, which should turn out to be temporary, because this cross ought to continue its southwards journey this week. The demand zones at 132.00, 131.50 and 131.00 could be breached to the downside. Rallies in the market could this be ignored. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Amid high volatility, the bias on GBPJPY has turned bearish. The bearishness started as a minor bearish correction on February 2, and later became something serious last week. Price plummeted by 600 pips, testing the demand zone at 149.00. The upwards bounce in price, which occurred on Friday, February 10, should be disregarded, because price is most likely go further southwards (owing to the weakness in GBP and a bearish expectation for JPY pairs). The market can shed another 300 pips this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “It simply doesn't make sense to trade just one market and to hope that one is going to be the big winner of the year. That's why trading multiple markets is so important and one of the key principles to successful trading in the long-term.” - Marco Mayer Source: www.tallinex.com
  3. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair did nothing significant last week: It only moved sideways. However, the bullish bias on the market has been maintained because bulls have been able to their own weight, and when a breakout occurs, it would take price above the resistance lines at 1.2500 and 1.2550. Possible pullbacks may not take price below the support lines at 1.2300 and 1.2250; otherwise a bearish bias would form. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF also consolidated last week, not going downwards significantly and not going upwards either. The bias on the market remains bearish, and there is a possibility that the support levels at 0.9200, 0.9150 and 0.9100 could be tested this week (when volatility arises). The resistance levels at 0.9400, 0.9450 and 0.9500 should hinder any serious rallies that may happen. Any breach of the resistance level at 0.9500 would result in a bullish bias. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Cable moved downwards on Monday and Tuesday, went upwards on Wednesday and Thursday, and then went downwards again on Friday. The outlook on the market is bullish, but the current strong pullback in the market has become a kind of threat to the bias. A breach of the accumulation territory at 1.3950 would result in a bearish signal, while a movement above the distribution territory at 1.4350 would help strengthen the current bullish bias. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. A short-term “buy” signal has been generated, because price has risen by 180 pips after testing the demand level at 108.50. This could be a start of a strong bullish journey, since price may rise further towards the supply levels at 110.50, 111.00 and 111.50. This even would result in an end to the current bearish bias. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Price made some faint bearish effort on January 29 and 30, as it briefly went below the demand zone at 134.50. However, the situation changed as a strong rally began on January 30. Price gained 300 pips, bringing about a bullish signal, and ending the recent consolidation in the market. The possibility of price going further upwards is very high this week. The next targets are the supply zones at 137.50, 138.00 and 138.50. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on GBPJPY (although the market environment is quite volatile). In the first few days of last week, price took a dip, only to rally massively in the middle of the week. The pullback that occurred on Friday would turn out to be another opportunity to buy long and ride the market further north. It is important to note that the bias on JPY pairs is very bullish for this week – short trades are not currently advisable. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “...Stay calm, try your best, and accept where the markets take you. Ironically, if you can identify and control what you can (such as risk management and a sound trading strategy), and accept what you cannot (the outcome of a trade), you will feel calm and be able to trade in a peak performance mindset. And the calmer you feel, the more open you will be to seeing the markets as they are, rather than what you want them to be.” – Joe Ross (Source: Tradingeducators) Source: www.tallinex.com
  4. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This week, EURUSD assumed one of its strongest movements in recent times. Since December 18, 2017, price has gained 800 pips. It gained almost 600 pips in January 2108, and over 300 pips last week, almost reaching the resistance line at 1.2550 (and pulling backwards). The market may go further upwards, reaching the resistance lines at 1.2550 and 1.3000, but it would eventually start coming down before the end of this week. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Since November 2, 2017, this pair has lost more than 700 pips; whereas its most serious bearish movements within the past several months occurred in January 2018. Last week witnessed the strongest bearish movement, as price went south by 300 pips, testing the support level at 0.9300 and closing below the resistance level at 0.9350. Since the outlook on USD is bearish for this week and for February; and since the outlook on CHF is bright (bullish) for February, it is expected that USDCHF would remain under bearish pressures. Only a strong bearish movement on EURUSD can cause some rally on USDCHF, which may even be weaker than normal. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Last week price went upwards by 480 pips before the bearish correction that is currently in place. The distribution territory at 1.4350 was almost reached, before price pulled backwards. A strong bullish pressure is needed before the distribution territory at 1.4350 can be tested again, and breached to the upside. Nevertheless the 170-pip pullback that took place on Thursday and Friday, may harbinger a protracted bearish movement, because the outlook on GBP pair is bearish for this week and for February. Strong movement would be witnessed again on GBP pairs. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The trend in the market is bearish – especially in January. Since the beginning of the year, price has come down by 420 pips, leading to a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Last week witnessed a movement of 240 pips, as price closed around the demand level at 108.50 on Monday. Further bearish movement may help price test the demand levels at 108.00 and 107.50. There could be instances of rally attempts this week, but they may be insignificant, owing to the weakness of USD. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral It is a surprise that EURJPY cross only went sideways last week, while most majors trended significantly. This is a sideways (neutral) market, which oscillates between the supply zone at 136.50 and the demand zone at 135.00 (though the demand zone at 135.00 was breached on Friday). Further sideways movement is possible, but there will eventually be a breakout in the market, which would favor bulls. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This is a volatile market. It has moved significantly upwards since January 11. However, there was a noteworthy pullback on January 25 and 26. Further pullback is possible, but may be contained at the demand zones of 153.00 and 152.00. Eventually, the recent bullish trend will continue because the outlook on certain JPY pairs is bullish for February, and GBPJPY is also included. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading requires an optimal mindset. When you are upset, tired, and emotionally distracted, you will have trouble following your trading plan. You must return to a calm, focused mindset, a mindset where you are attentive and alert, and can trade like a winner.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
  5. “Trading is one of the oldest concepts on the planet and that’s an advantage to your new business. You don’t have to reinvent the wheel. What you have to do now is create a written set of instructions to your brain. Instructions that will turn your concepts into cash. Think of your business plan as Cliff Notes on “How to make money by trading!” because that’s what it will be once it is completed. Since only the best traders have the discipline to make such a plan, you’ll have one of the “edges” you need to compete alongside the top market makers and traders.” – Dr. Van Tharp (Source: Vantharp.com) Based on many years of trading and research in the markets, I’d like to share some tricks with you. I hope the tricks would help you become triumphant as a trader. NEITHER A PERMABULL NOR A PERMABEAR BE In Forex markets, it’s far better to be a trader rather than be an investor. It’s more preferable to make money when there is a strong uptrend or a strong downtrend. When an investor is experiencing drawdowns, a trader who’s good at timing entries would be raking in profits. When a permabear is being pummeled in a market that suddenly becomes bullish, going protractedly northward, a trader that has a good system, who is good at timing entries would be raking in profits. A trader goes long in a bull market and goes short in a bear market, truncating their negativity when caught in a wrong direction. On the other hand, an investor makes money only in a bull market. In the modern markets, it makes more sense to be a trader, not a permabull nor a permabear. Go short in bear markets and go long in a bull markets. Don’t buy and hold because a bear market can hold out longer than your portfolio may carry it. You can receive margin calls in the process. Strong pullbacks on Bitcoin is a good example. FIND THE MARKET THAT’S MOST SUITABLE FOR YOUR STRATEGY For example, a strategy that follows the trend would work well in a market that trends very well like, USDCNH, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver and other currencies that trend very well. It doesn’t mean that these trading instruments don’t experience consolidations, but it means they tend to trend more than other instruments like USDJPY and EURCHF. When you use a trend-following strategy on an instrument that tends to trend well, your results will improve. There are also better results when a trend follower trades on an instrument which tends to move fast. When you scalp, you would do well on trading instrument that moves slowly or tends to consolidate, just like EURCHF and EURGBP. When you’re scalping in a highly trending market, your results can be worsened. FIND THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT FOR YOUR SYSTEMS Locate the right environment for your trading system. Some trading systems perform well on Tuesdays to Thursdays only. Some perform well on Mondays and Fridays only. Some systems perform well from October to April only, while some systems perform well on May to September only. Some perform well during Asia sessions. Please find the best months or weeks or days or times for your strategies. Find the best market conditions for your strategies and try to avoid periods and conditions that may not be favorable to you. Conclusion: Please don’t forget to use stops and risk very small per trade. Those who think they’re smart enough to avoid stop and low lot sizes, will eventually learn bitter lessons, no matter how good their strategies are. I end this article with 3 quotes from great traders: “Staying on the right side of the market is not always easy. But when it is, keep riding the easy move up while having a plan in place to protect your capital when the inevitable big pullback comes.” - D.R. Barton, Jr “The markets don’t always cooperate with you. The winning trader is the person who questions a trading plan before executing it. He or she tries to anticipate what could go wrong, and thinks of ways to work around these potential setbacks. Being a healthy skeptic can be difficult at times, but the cautious optimist usually ends up making the most profits in the end.” – Joe Ross “A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.” - Ed Seykota
  6. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair consolidated throughout last week, moving between the resistance line at 1.2300 and the support line at 1.2150. The resistance line at 1.2300 was tested unsuccessfully, and it is unlikely that price would stay above it, even if it tested again. There is going to be a directional movement this week, which would most probably favor bears, for the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for the week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF went further southwards last week, testing the demand level at 0.9550, prior to the upwards bounce that occurred on Friday. Because of the expected weakness in EURUSD, it is unlikely that price would be able to go below the support level at 0.9550. Rather, price could continue going upwards, reaching the resistance levels at 0.9650, 0.9700 and 0.9750 within the next several trading days. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD went upwards last week, having gained roughly 400 pips since January 11. The market moved above the distribution territory at 1.3900 and later closed below it on Friday. There is currently a bullish bias on the market, which would be overturned once price goes below the accumulation territories at 1.3500 and 1.3450 (which would require a very strong selling pressure). The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument is in a bearish mode. The shallow rally that was in the middle of last week, turned out to be a nice opportunity to go short. It is much more likely that price would continue going southwards this week, because there could be some weakness in USD. The demand levels at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50 could be reached. On the other hand, a rally can meet some adamant impediment around the supply levels at 111.50 and 112.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The cross is bullish but it is quite choppy in the short-term. Should the demand zone at 134.00 get breached to the downside, the bias would turn bearish. In case price is able to go above the supply zone at 136.50, the next target would be another supply zone at 137.00 (and the recent bullish bias would become stronger). A movement to the upside is more likely, owing to a bullish outlook on some JPY pairs. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Despite the bearish movement that happened between January 8 and 11, this cross has been able to go upwards in a noteworthy manner last week. Between Monday and Thursday, price moved upwards by 250 pips, and then got corrected on Friday. This week, further bullish movement may enable price to reach the supply zones at 154.00, 154.50 and 155.00. There could be additional bearish corrections along the way; but they should be temporary, posing no significant threat to the bullishness in the market. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “And remember, having a working business plan will put you in the elite company of the top traders that are already living their promise.” – Dr. Van Tharp Source: www.tallinex.com Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (January 22 - 26, 2018) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair consolidated throughout last week, moving between the resistance line at 1.2300 and the support line at 1.2150. The resistance line at 1.2300 was tested unsuccessfully, and it is unlikely that price would stay above it, even if it tested again. There is going to be a directional movement this week, which would most probably favor bears, for the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for the week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF went further southwards last week, testing the demand level at 0.9550, prior to the upwards bounce that occurred on Friday. Because of the expected weakness in EURUSD, it is unlikely that price would be able to go below the support level at 0.9550. Rather, price could continue going upwards, reaching the resistance levels at 0.9650, 0.9700 and 0.9750 within the next several trading days. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD went upwards last week, having gained roughly 400 pips since January 11. The market moved above the distribution territory at 1.3900 and later closed below it on Friday. There is currently a bullish bias on the market, which would be overturned once price goes below the accumulation territories at 1.3500 and 1.3450 (which would require a very strong selling pressure). The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument is in a bearish mode. The shallow rally that was in the middle of last week, turned out to be a nice opportunity to go short. It is much more likely that price would continue going southwards this week, because there could be some weakness in USD. The demand levels at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50 could be reached. On the other hand, a rally can meet some adamant impediment around the supply levels at 111.50 and 112.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The cross is bullish but it is quite choppy in the short-term. Should the demand zone at 134.00 get breached to the downside, the bias would turn bearish. In case price is able to go above the supply zone at 136.50, the next target would be another supply zone at 137.00 (and the recent bullish bias would become stronger). A movement to the upside is more likely, owing to a bullish outlook on some JPY pairs. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Despite the bearish movement that happened between January 8 and 11, this cross has been able to go upwards in a noteworthy manner last week. Between Monday and Thursday, price moved upwards by 250 pips, and then got corrected on Friday. This week, further bullish movement may enable price to reach the supply zones at 154.00, 154.50 and 155.00. There could be additional bearish corrections along the way; but they should be temporary, posing no significant threat to the bullishness in the market. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “And remember, having a working business plan will put you in the elite company of the top traders that are already living their promise.” – Dr. Van Tharp Source: www.tallinex.com
  7. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The market was bearish from Monday to Wednesday, and then began to make some bullish effort, which eventually paid for. From the middle of last week, price rose by 270 pips, to test the resistance line at 1.2200. That resistance line remains under siege, for it would easily be breached to the upside this week, as price gain at least, another 150 pips. The outlook on EUR pairs remains bullish. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair made some weak bullish effort from January 8 to 10, almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9850. However, further bullish attempt was rejected as a bearish movement was assumed, which ended up generating a bearish signal in the market. From the high of last week, price dropped by 170 pips, closing below the resistance level at 0.9700 on Friday. The outlook on USDCHF is bearish for this week, for the market would face attacks from two fronts: CHF would gain some stamina, and a strong EURUSD would help ensure continuous bearish pressure on USDCHF. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The bullish breakout that was witnessed in this market has ended the protracted consolidation in the market, which had held out for several weeks (save the bullish attempt that occurred in the last week of December 2017). GBPUSD moved upwards by 200 pips on Friday alone, and since GBP pairs would be somewhat bullish this week, it is logical to expect the bullish movement to continue, reaching the distribution territory at 1.3750 and 1.3800. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY went south by 214 last week, making several unsuccessful attempts to break the demand level at 111.00 to the downside. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, which supports a bearish outlook on the market. That means the demand level at 111.00 would be breached to the downside, as price journeys further southwards to towards the demand levels at 110.50, 110.00, and 109.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral Although the market was mostly bullish within the last 4 weeks, the bullishness was challenged last week as price dropped 320 pips from Monday to Wednesday. Nonetheless, the upwards bounce that was seen in the market on Thursday and Friday was strong enough to challenge its short-term bearishness. Only a movement of 100 pips to the upside would result in a strong “buy” signal; whereas a movement to the south, even by 150 pips, would help put more emphasis on the recent bearishness in the market. Until one of these directional movement happens, the bias on the market would remain somehow neutral. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross dropped 310 pips from Monday to Wednesday, consolidated on Thursday, and bounced upwards on Friday. Generally, the bias on the market is bullish: The pullback that happened in the first few days of last week appears to be offering an opportunity to buy long at better prices. Thus, the supply zones at 152.50, 153,00 and 153.50 would be targeted this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading is a simple profession since it can be summed up in three ideas. If it is trending up over the time frame you are trading you buy it. If it trending down over the time frame you are trading you sell it. Don’t bet the farm. It is hardly rocket science yet despite this our very nature more often than not defeats us despite the evidence that it shouldn’t.” – Chris Tate Source: www.tallinex.com
  8. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The market essentially consolidated throughout last week – in the context of an uptrend. Although price did not go seriously upwards or downwards last week, that stance is going to change this week (for price would assume a directional movement). It is much more likely that price would continue going upwards, owing to bullish expectations on EUR pairs. So at least 150 pips may be gained this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair was caught in an equilibrium movement last week (although the overall bias on the market is bearish). Unlike the equilibrium phase of last week, there is going to be a strong breakout this week, which would, nonetheless, respect the ongoing bearish bias. This is because there would be selling pressures on USDCHF, except EURUSD drops sharply. At least, a southwards movement of 100 pips is expected from here, reaching the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument went upwards last week, to test the distribution territory at 1.3600, before dropping lower. So far, the drop has been shallow and that has not overridden the bullish bias on the market, unless the accumulation territory at 1.3400 is breached to the downside, which would require a heavy selling pressure. The distribution territory at 1.3600 could be tested again. It could even be breached to the upside. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, USDJPY rejected further bearish effort as it went upwards by 110 pips, thereby generating a short-term “buy” signal. Price managed to close above the demand level at 113.00 on Friday, thus making further northwards movement a possibility. This means the supply levels at 113.50 and 114.00 could be reached this week. Nevertheless, there is a present risk of a large pullback on JPY pairs. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross went upwards last week, reached the supply zone at 136.50 and ended the week in a bearish correction. Since December 15, 2017, price has gained over 400 pips; plus it would be somewhat difficult for a lasting bearish movement to occur in the market, as long EUR is strong. The targets for this week are located at the supply zones of 136.50, 137.00 and 137.50. There are demand zones at 135.00 and 134.50. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish GBPJPY experienced a strong bullish movement last week, moving from the demand zone at 152.00, to reach the supply zone at 153.50. It is possible that price would gain another 200 pips this week, as price goes further northwards. However, the more the market goes upwards, the more the chances of a bearish correction, which may be significant enough to challenge the ongoing bullish outlook. That is expected to happen anytime this month. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “…We need a strategy that produces profits on a consistent basis, the self-discipline that executes that strategy and the focus to achieve our goals.” - Gabe Velazquez Source: www.tallinex.com
  9. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the market. Price went upwards by 170 pips last week, almost managing to close barely above the support line at 1.2000. While there could be further bullish effort this week, it is not may not take price above the resistance line at 1.2100, because the outlook on the market is strongly bearish for this week, and mostly bearish for January as whole. Therefore, the days on the current bullish bias are numbered. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument was vividly engaged in a bearish movement last week, thus ending the short-term equilibrium phase that occurred around the middle of December. The market dipped by 160 pips last week, closing below the resistance level at 0.9750. Further bearish movement is expected this week, which could take price towards the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650. USD would try to amass some stamina sometimes this week, but that would not make a significant bullish difference (until EURUSD dips), because CHF itself would become strong versus many major currencies this month, and USD included. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair, which was mostly moving sideways in December, managed to start a bullish movement last week. A close above the accumulation territory at 1.3500 means the sideways phase is temporarily over. The bullish bias would hold out only as long as price is able to stay above the accumulation territory at 1.3450. There would be strong movements on this pair, as well as other GBP pairs, in January, and most of the movements would be bearish. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY is bearish in the short-term, and neutral in the long-term. Price consolidated on Monday and Tuesday, dropped on Wednesday, and maintained the drop till end of the week. This is what has created the short-term bearishness in the market. Since the outlook on JPY pairs is somewhat bearish for this week, it is expected that the bearish movement would continue, thus targeting the demand levels at 112.50 and 112.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Unlike what USDJPY did, EURJPY managed to go upwards last week, breaching the demand zone at 135.00 and testing the supply zone at 135.50, before closing below it. One factor responsible for this is the stamina on EUR, and there is a possibility that price would be able to go above the supply level at 135.50 (even reaching another supply zone at 136.00 and moving above it as well). However, risk of a large bearish run exists, since the outlook on most JPY pairs is bearish for the week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross has been able to sustain the “buy” signal it generated in the middle of December. The upwards movement is slow and gradual, and it may survive as price gains another 100 pips this week. Nonetheless, there is a possibility of a bearish movement starting before the end of the week – or sometimes this month - for GBP could become week. Additional factor is also a possible strengthening of Yen. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “If traders cannot accept the losses that go with the trading, they do not deserve the profits. Failure is the greatest teacher only when a student is prepared to learn. If the student has forgotten previous lessons, or the dog ate his homework, he is not ready. A positive attitude has positive expectations of future events and normally precedes the success it creates.” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
  10. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish in the short-term, but neutral in the long-term. Price rose from the support line at 1.1750 and tested the resistance line at 1.1900 (a movement of 150 pips). However, price closed below the resistance line on Friday. Bulls might still be able to sustain the short-term bullishness in the market, till the end of the year. The support line at 1.1750 would resist a bearish bias from forming this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral This trading instrument did not make any significant movement last week, neither is it expected to make any significant movement this week (because volatility would thin out). Price is thus expected to oscillate between the resistance level at 0.9950 and support level at 0.9800 within the next several trading days. However, a breakout will occur early January, which would result in a directional bias, ending this current neutrality in the market. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral The GBPUSD consolidated throughout last week, forming no directional movement. The price has generally swung between the distribution territory at 1.3450 and the accumulation territory at 1.3300. Generally the current neutrality will exist as long as price swings between the distribution territory at 1.3500 and the accumulation territory at 1.3250. Such is the condition that will exist for the rest of this year. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There is a short-term bullish bias on the USDJPY, but it is not strong. Price gained 100 pips last week, from the demand level at 112.50 to the supply level at 113.50. After the supply level at 113.50 was tested, price retraced towards the southwards, but that is not a threat to current short-term bias. This week, a big price swing is not expected unless an unexpected fundamental figure comes out from the blue. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Here, price rose up more than 200 pips (from the demand zone at 132.50 to the supply zone at 134.50). The supply zone at 134.50 was briefly surmounted before price went below it on December 22. The bullish bias is anticipated to hold out for the rest of the year, in spite of any bearish attempts along the way. The demand zones at 133.50, 133.00 and 132.50 would impede bearish pulls in the market. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The GBPJPY cross rose upwards last week, and then started to consolidate on Thursday (till the end of the week). Further sideways movement in the market, especially for a few more trading days, would result in a neutral bias. A movement to the upside (towards the supply zone at 152.50) would help strengthen the current bullish bias; and a strong movement to the downside (towards the demand zone at 149.50) would erase the bullish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “One of my first jobs was at a bank working in credit risk management, and it was there that I discovered my love for financial markets and trading in general. I’ve always loved strategy games and for me, trading is the ultimate way to formulate real strategy. If a trade works well for you, you get a reward…” - Andrés Padrones Source: www.tallinex.com
  11. RANDOM THOUGHTS FROM LIFE ON THE ROAD Louise Bedford and I have just wrapped up about a month of travelling to different states and presenting, which is something we haven’t done for probably 15 years. It was an interesting adventure and good to get out from behind the screen and talk to people. When I go anywhere I try and be a keen observer of people. It is amazing what you can learn simply by listening and watching and the one thing I learnt this time rather surprised me. Success in any endevour has a few trials that it places in your way and if you conquer this trial then there will inevitably be another one. Life is in many ways a little bit like the 12 labours of Hercules – there is always something else. As you would expect trading also has these hurdles, some are huge but most are trivial and the thing that interested me most in my current journeys was that people fell at the first hurdle. The first hurdle for many people is actually getting off their own arses. Let me explain by reference to my own evolution as a trader. Step 1 – Decide I want a different life. Step 2 – Get off my arse and decide what form this will take. Step 3 – Learn about equities trading by once again getting off my arse and going down the the ASX. Step 4 – Repeat Step 3 repeatedly whilst I devour everything their education department has to offer. Step 5 – Open an account with a broker – how did I do this?…….I rang them up and asked (this also involved getting off my arse). Step 6 – Make a trade – how did I do this?…… I rang them up and asked. Step 7 – Get trade wrong (my trade, my mistake, my fault). Step 8 – Repeat Steps 6 and 7 repeatedly. Step 9 – Learn technical analysis – how did I do this?…..I found a book and read it. Step 10 – Place another trade – make a slightly smaller mistake….repeat ad infinitum. Step 11 – Begin using computerised technical analysis. How did I learn this?…..I bought a PC and a charting package and spent countless evenings and days playing with it. Step 12 – Start trading derivatives and make lots of mistakes. Whilst this is a little flippant there are two central themes, I made a vast number of mistakes and everything I did came about from my own sense of discovery and getting off my own arse. When travelling and in subsequent emails I have been surprised at the number of people who cannot begin to trade because no one will sit down beside them and show them how to place an order or how to find information on their brokers website. When I suggest that they look at the copious and detailed instructions brokers offer all of which is in glorious multimedia they are somewhat taken aback that someone should suggest this, as if the magic do everything for you fairy should sit down beside them and do it for them. As my father used to say in his more eloquent moments…do you want me to come and wipe your arse for your as well? One of the hallmarks of people who are successful is that they have a sense of internal direction, this internal rhythm keeps them moving forward and it is powered by their own sense of achievement. My failures are my own but so too are my successes because I seek out new things and learn new things without constantly being prodded forwarded. My hypothesis about this sort of thing is that some people have been in the employee mindset for so long that they can no longer take action for themselves and to suggest that they should overloads their brain. This I can excuse because it is a powerful form of social conditioning and it is hard to break. Lazy bastards I have no time for. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of https://www.tradinggame.com.au TODAY, I TRADE WHERE ARE YOU… my brilliant trader within? I move through the trading world with confidence. I will walk my path with audacity. Today I trade. I am in awe of the future that I have ensured for my family. I am judged, and misunderstood. Yet, I stand strong. I am battered by my losses, but I rise above. The world is missing what I am designed to give. Today I trade. I am one with the markets, and my light illuminates my most precious goals. I am black. I am white. I am old. I am young. I trade with precision. I fight procrastination and lack of clarity. I harness my anger and transform. My power is limitless and I’ve caught a glimpse of my potential. I emerge from my stifling cocoon of work and labour. Today I unite with my fellow traders, my supporters, my Mentors. Today I trade. Today is the day I trade. – Louise Bedford “…Successful traders realize that they are not in this business to trade, but rather to make money. And to do that you need patience. A patient trader with a second rate system will generally out perform an impatient trader with a better system…” - Jeff Wecker “Trading is a god awful grind at times as it requires you to do the same bloody thing day after day and to sit with the pain of losing. And the pain of sitting with losing is amplified by the fact that you know the mistakes (if they are mistakes) are your own. If you have taken a trade that wasn’t there, acted on a tip or simply failed to engage a stop then these are your mistakes, they do not belong to someone else and you have to cope with the emotional cost of that. It is here that there is a schism between those who go on to be successful and those who just drop their bundle. Those who move through this have the energy to change and in doing so they naturally accept the pain that this invokes. There is no outsourcing your success to others but that is the good thing about success at any endeavour – it always belongs to the individual.” – Chris Tate www.tallinex.com wants you to be a successful trader
  12. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral This pair is bearish in the short-term, and neutral in the long-term. Price has gradually come down since November 27, and it is now around the support line at 1.1750, and it may go lower to test other support lines at 1.1700 and 1.1650 this week. There would be some selling pressure on the market, which could hold throughout December. A meaningful rally would be somewhat difficult. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Although USDCHF is bearish in the short-term (and neutral in the long-term), it is likely that price would go upwards, moving above the resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000, and therefore erasing the short-term bearishness. This pair would be able to enjoy some form of bullishness as long as EURUSD is under selling pressure, and this is a situation that may hold out for most part of December. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The Cable is also slightly bearish in the short-term, but neutral in the long-term. A movement towards the accumulation territories at 1.3300 and 1.3250 would help strengthen the extant short-term bearishness; while a movement above the distribution territories at 1.3450 and 1.3500 would halt the bearishness. It is possible for the overall neutrality to end when the market assumes a protracted directional movement. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The market went sideways on Monday and Tuesday, and then began to come down on Wednesday. If price had not closed above the demand level at 112.50, there would have been a “sell” signal in the short-term. The neutrality in the market is vivid, and will end once price goes above the supply level at 114.00; or it goes below the demand level at 111.50. This condition may not be fulfilled again this month, because the kind of volatility that would bring this about may not happen this month. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral EURJPY is currently a good example of a consolidating market. The consolidation has been in place since September 2017, and that is the how the situation would be until year 2017 is over. However, there are short-term signals that are brought about by temporary upswings and downswings in the market, which give excellent opportunities to buy dips and sell rallies as price oscillates along the way. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross is bearish in the short-term (but neutral in the long-term). Price went downwards by more than 200 pips, creating a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The bearish movement is expected to continue as price targets the demand zones at 149.50, 149.00 and 148.50, which would be reached this week or next. There could be rallies along the way, but they are not expected to bring about a bullish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “When it comes to trading in the trend, you do not always have to be first, but you do not want to be wrong.” - Brandon Wendell Source: www.tallinex.com
  13. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market is bearish in the short-term, for price went southwards throughout last week, moving briefly below the support line at 1.1750 and then closing above that support line on Friday. Other support lines at 1.1700 and 1.1650 could be tested this week, provided there is a serious selling pressure in the market. There are resistance lines at 1.1850, 1.1900 and 1.1950, which should impede serious rallies. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish in the short-term, as it went northwards throughout last week, moving briefly above the resistance level at 0.9950 and then closing below that resistance level on Friday. Other resistance levels at 1.0000 and 1.0050 could be tested this week, provided there is a serious buying pressure in the market. There is also a strong possibility that the pair would plummet seriously before the end of this week, owing to a possible display of stamina in CHF. Most major currencies would drop against CHF this week (and USD possibly included). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The bias on the Cable is bullish, but the bias is very weak, owing to some bearish attempt to pull down the price last week. A movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3250 would result in a bearish signal being generated, while a movement above the distribution territory at 1.3550 would result in putting more emphasis on the recent bullish signal. One of these scenarios would materialize this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish From Monday to Wednesday, USDJPY went downwards; but it started moving upwards on that very Wednesday, to gain 150 pips, and to test the supply level at 113.50 by Friday (closing around that supply level). This has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means price would break the supply level at 113.50 to the upside, as it targets other supply levels at 114.00 and 114.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This trading instrument is quite choppy and completely neutral. There are wild upswings and downswings in the market as it is completely directionless. The current market condition would continue for some more days until price is able to stay above the supply zone at 134.50, or below the demand zone at 131.50. This is a condition that requires a high volatility and a perpetual movement in one direction. The condition would be met before the end of this month. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The outlook on this cross is bullish. From November 4 to 6, the cross went downwards, and then rallied. The rally has saved the ongoing bullish outlook on the market, despite the bearish correction that took place on November 8 (which might turn out to be an opportunity to buy long at a better price). This week, price would go upwards again, reaching the supply zones at 152.00, 152.50 and 153.00. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Sometimes I wonder what would have happened if I hadn’t learned how to trade. What future would have been blocked off?” – Louise Bedford Source: www.tallinex.com
  14. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The bullish bias on EURUSD was challenged last week, as price was pulled towards the support line at 1.1800. However, bulls managed to push price upwards, thus saving the bullish bias. Price is currently close to the resistance line at 1.1900, and it is bent on breaching it to the upside as soon as possible. The resistance line at 1.2000 is the ultimate target; although bulls would meet a fierce opposition at the resistance line. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish From Monday to Wednesday, this pair went upwards in the context of a downtrend, testing the price level at 0.9850, going above it briefly and then coming downwards to move below it. USDCHF cannot have a meaningful rally as long as EURUSD is able to showcase its stamina. The rally that took place in the first few days of last week has proven to be a good opportunity to sell short at a better price, as price plummeted on Friday, putting more emphasis on the ongoing bearish outlook. Further bearish movement is expected this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The persistent bullish effort on Cable - against all odds – has already paid off. The bullish upwards movement in the market has been slow, gradual, and steady. Since November 14, price has gained more than 400 pips, roughly testing the distribution territory at 1.3549. Although price has retraced lower since then, that is just a temporary thing, it would go upwards again, targeting the distribution territories at 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish After testing the supply level at 114.50, this trading instrument went downwards by 340 pips in November, creating a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. However, the rally that took placed almost throughout last week nearly posed a threat to the bearishness in the market. The reneging rally met a challenge on Friday and the market pulled back considerably. This week, price could possible reach the demand levels at 112.00 and 111.50. But that does not completely rule out the possibility of some rally. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross is quite choppy, showing some indecision in the long-term, and showing some bullishness in the short-term. The market went downwards on November 27 and 28, and then started going upwards on November 29 (after testing the demand zone at (132.00). The market reached the supply zone at 134.00 and then closed just below the supply zone at 133.50. It is thus possible for the supply zones at 133.50, 134.00 and 134.50 to be reached this week. As long as the demand zone at 131.50 is not breached to the downside, this short-term bullish bias cannot be rendered invalid. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish GBPJPY rallied massively last week, putting an end to the recent indecision that had held out for weeks. From the demand level at 147.00, price shot skywards by 540 pips, before the slight bearish retracement that was witnessed on December 1. This week, bulls would be able to push price further upwards. The targets are the supply zones at 151.50, 152.00 and 152.50 would easily be reached, enabling the ongoing bullish bias to become stronger. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Learning the business of trading is basically no different from learning any other business. Winning means learning major guidelines and concepts that you repeat so often in your own behavior that they become good habits. These good habits then become automatic behavior patterns, which are formed as brain pathways by the rewards you get for trading well...” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
  15. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair went upwards last week, after moving sideways on Monday and Tuesday. Price gained 210 pips, closing above the support line at 1.1900 and targeting the resistance line at 1.1950. Then another resistance level at 2.0000 (a psychological line) would be reached and possibly broken to the upside in December, as price goes further upwards. The outlook on EUR pairs is bullish for December USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish The market has come down by 220 pips in November 2017 – going downwards by 100 pips this week alone. There is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means price could continue going southwards, reaching the support levels at 0.9750, 0.9700 and 0.9650. These targets ought to be reached within the next several trading days, for there cannot be a meaningful rally in the market as long as EURUSD is strong. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish There is a bullish signal on GBPUSD, which has come about as a result of desperate effort by bulls, to price upward against bearish forces in the market. There is a possibility that price could reach the distribution territories at 1.3350, 1.3400 and 1.3450 this week (and in December). However, price would eventually fall seriously in December because the outlook on GBP pairs is strongly bearish for that month. Long trades may not make much sense on GBP pairs in December. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument has lost about 300 pips in November, after testing the supply level at 114.50 on November 6. The market may continue going downwards, reaching the demand levels at 111.00, 110.50 and 110.00 (providing that the selling pressure is great in the market). However, things would eventually turn bullish this week, for the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for the week. There would be a bullish reversal that would end up generating a “buy” signal. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross is bullish in the short-term and neutral in the long-term. The cross went sideways on November 20 – 23. Since bullish movements are anticipated on JPY pairs this week, it is interesting that EURJPY has already started the journey. Price managed to close above the demand zone at 133.00 on Friday, and would gain another 200 pips before the end of the week. Once the supply level at 134.00 is breached to the upside, the bias on the market would also become bullish in the long-term. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Neutral GBPJPY is not an attractive market at the present. It has been consolidating for the past several weeks, and the consolidation would continue until there is a sustained breakout in the market. The most likely direction this week (and probably in December), would be northwards. The bias on the market would turn bullish once price goes above the supply zone at 150.00, which would not be an easy goal to achieve, since GBP would sometimes become weak in itself. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Think of patience as a primary part of your trading strategy. Don't assign it a secondary or lesser role, elevate it on the list of what you consider important. And don't be put off by it when it doesn't seem to be working — it's working.” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
  16. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish A bullish signal was generated on this pair last week, as the market gained 200 pips, to test the resistance line at 1.1850. After that, price began to experience some bearish correction, which made it close below the resistance line at 1.1800 on Friday. The bullish signal in the market remains valid, and it cannot be invalidated unless the market goes down by 200 pips from here. This week, the resistance lines at 1.1800, 1.1850 and 1.1900 could be reached. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair went downwards from Monday to Wednesday, jumped upwards on Thursday, and then went downwards again on Friday, closing at 0.9883 (on that very day). There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the support level at 0.9850 may be tested easily, breached to the downside, as price goes further downwards towards other support levels at 0.9800, and 0.9750 (the last target of the week). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral The bias on Cable is essentially neutral, for price has not gone in a strong directional mode in the past 4 weeks. There is a distribution territory at 1.3300 and an accumulation territory at 1.3050 (as space of 250 pips). These distribution and accumulation territories have proven to be able to withstand bearish and bullish pressures in recent times; and as long as price remains within them, the ongoing neutrality would remain. Once either of the territory is breached, a directional bias would occur. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY went sideways on November 13, and began to come down from November 14. Price went down by 160 pips last week, testing the demand level at 112.00 on November 17 (before the close of the market). This week, it is possible that price would go beneath the demand level at 112.00, and aim for another demand level at 111.50. Nonetheless, there would possibly be a strong bullish reversal before the end of the week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The fact is, the EURJPY cross has been consolidating since the beginning of October (in the long-term). In the short-term, there are short-term bearish and bullish swings in the market, with no directional bias. For example, price went upwards last week, on Monday and Tuesday; but the bearish movement of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday has rendered the bullish movement of Monday and Tuesday invalid. The current neutrality would continue until price goes upwards by at least, 300 pips; or until it plummets by at least 300 pips. Any pip movement below that would not be sufficient to end the current neutrality. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This is also a choppy and equilibrium market, for things have gone slightly bearish. The market would need to reach the demand zone at 146.50, for the bearish signal to become stronger in the market. On the other hand, a breach of the supply zone at 150.00 would swiftly bring an end to the bearish bias. A movement to the upside is more likely this week, since the outlook on some JPY pairs is bullish for the week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Building a Forex trading strategy is much like building a house. You need layers and a good foundation.” – Jarratt Davis Source: www.tallinex.com Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (November 20 - 24, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish A bullish signal was generated on this pair last week, as the market gained 200 pips, to test the resistance line at 1.1850. After that, price began to experience some bearish correction, which made it close below the resistance line at 1.1800 on Friday. The bullish signal in the market remains valid, and it cannot be invalidated unless the market goes down by 200 pips from here. This week, the resistance lines at 1.1800, 1.1850 and 1.1900 could be reached. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair went downwards from Monday to Wednesday, jumped upwards on Thursday, and then went downwards again on Friday, closing at 0.9883 (on that very day). There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the support level at 0.9850 may be tested easily, breached to the downside, as price goes further downwards towards other support levels at 0.9800, and 0.9750 (the last target of the week). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral The bias on Cable is essentially neutral, for price has not gone in a strong directional mode in the past 4 weeks. There is a distribution territory at 1.3300 and an accumulation territory at 1.3050 (as space of 250 pips). These distribution and accumulation territories have proven to be able to withstand bearish and bullish pressures in recent times; and as long as price remains within them, the ongoing neutrality would remain. Once either of the territory is breached, a directional bias would occur. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY went sideways on November 13, and began to come down from November 14. Price went down by 160 pips last week, testing the demand level at 112.00 on November 17 (before the close of the market). This week, it is possible that price would go beneath the demand level at 112.00, and aim for another demand level at 111.50. Nonetheless, there would possibly be a strong bullish reversal before the end of the week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The fact is, the EURJPY cross has been consolidating since the beginning of October (in the long-term). In the short-term, there are short-term bearish and bullish swings in the market, with no directional bias. For example, price went upwards last week, on Monday and Tuesday; but the bearish movement of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday has rendered the bullish movement of Monday and Tuesday invalid. The current neutrality would continue until price goes upwards by at least, 300 pips; or until it plummets by at least 300 pips. Any pip movement below that would not be sufficient to end the current neutrality. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This is also a choppy and equilibrium market, for things have gone slightly bearish. The market would need to reach the demand zone at 146.50, for the bearish signal to become stronger in the market. On the other hand, a breach of the supply zone at 150.00 would swiftly bring an end to the bearish bias. A movement to the upside is more likely this week, since the outlook on some JPY pairs is bullish for the week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Building a Forex trading strategy is much like building a house. You need layers and a good foundation.” – Jarratt Davis Source: www.tallinex.com
  17. THE WAYS WE CON OURSELVES I support a particular hospital charity that each year or so runs a home lottery and every year I enter. To date I have won a digital camera, an iPod, an Apple TV, a tonne of chocolate, wine (brilliant for a non-drinker but good for presents) and a host of other goodies. In fact I have never had a time when I have entered and not won something. Whilst my expectancy is not quite positive it’s not bad. If I were a news agency that sold lottery tickets and I had this many winning entries bought via my store people would be clambering over me thinking there was something special about my store. One of the things we ignore in life is that we are subject to the same harsh statistics as everyone else – we have what I call the myth of individual specialness. Our basic narcissism leads us to believe that the laws that apply to the universe don’t really apply to us, as a result we spend a lot of time fooling ourselves into think there is something special or magical about what we do. My capacity to win this particular lottery has nothing to do with me other than the fact that I enter, I am simply subject to the laws of large numbers as is everyone else. If you get enough people doing the same thing over a long period time then the probable drifts into the realm of the inevitable. It is no wonder some people win the lottery twice. But because we are such poor natural statisticians this seems like magic to us and we ascribe some special quality to ourselves and this is apparently a well-known phenomenon in both lottery winners and those who have inherited wealth. They believe that something divine about themselves means that they were meant to win – they cannot accept that it was blind luck. My wife has a friend who received a very large inheritance from her parents, she has now divorced herself from all her friends of many decades because she believes that there is something superior about herself other than being the lucky product of the sperm sprint derby that we all undergo. Sometimes you land in the right spot and sometimes you don’t. The central issue here is that even in trading we are subject to the ruthlessness of statistics and this ruthlessness is often at odds with our own emotional endurance. For example if you have a system with a positive expectancy this means that on average and over time your system will make money. But note there are two presumptive phrases involved in this definition – on average and over time. You need to have the resilience to ride out the times when the system is not making money. When traders first encounter the notion of expectancy they assume that is means that every trade they take will make $X and are surprised when this does not happen. All trading systems will experience runs of losses, this is the natural order of things and you can experiment with this for yourself by looking at a coin toss simulator. If you click here you can see how streaks of either heads or tails form – this is a good example of what can happen in trading systems. Despite trading being a basic exercise in statistics at its core it is an exercise in resilience because we have to find ways of dealing with brutality of statistics and even when we know our system is sound it is still hard to take a continual series of losses. Inevitably we come back to the notion of courage as a central tenet in the success of any trader. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of: http://tradinggame.com.au This article is concluded with the 3 quotes below: “Every time you have a hunch that the market will reverse, jot it down on paper. After 30 attempts, look back at how accurate your prediction is. You may be surprised by your results.” – Rayner Teo “Defeats in trading are not really defeats, anyway — they are more like trial balloons we keep sending up, knowing in advance that a certain number of them are going to get shot down. Therefore, trading is really a process of two steps forward and one step back. The one step back part will always seem like a defeat, will always feel like a defeat, but is not a defeat – simply part of the process.” – Andy Jordan “A large population of traders consider themselves to be much more effective than they really are.”- Chris Tate
  18. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market consolidated last week, and made some bullish effort on Thursday and Friday (in the context of a downtrend). There is a bullish signal in the short-term, and once the resistance line at 1.1750 is breached to the upside, the bias would turn bullish. The outlook on EUR pairs is bullish for this week, and thus, other resistance lines that would be reached are located around 1.1800 and 1.1850. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish in the long-term, but it is becoming bearish in the short-term. Basically, price moved sideways from Monday to Wednesday and then moved lower on Thursday. Further bearish movement is possible this week, and the targets are the support levels at 0.9950, 0.9900 and 0.9850. However, there would not be a very serious bearish movement this week because USD would retain some of its stamina this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral GBPUSD is quite choppy and volatile, characterized by short-term upswings and downswings with no directional movement. This week or next, it is possible for price to either go above the distribution territory at 1.3300 (creating a strong bullish bias); or it would go below the accumulation territory at 1.3050 (creating a strong bearish bias). Strong directional movements are anticipated on other GBP pairs this week USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. As soon as price tested the supply level at 114.50, it went downwards by 100 pips (throughout last week), closing slightly below the supply level at 113.50. Should price move southwards this week, the demand levels at 113.00 and 112.50 would be reached. A northwards movement above the supply levels at 114.00, 114.50 and 115.00 would help strengthen the recent bullish bias. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This is a neutral market. Price went downwards last week, testing the demand zone at 131.50, before bouncing upwards by 100 pips, to test the supply zone at 132.50. As long as price oscillates between the supply zone at 133.00 and the demand zone at 131.50, the neutrality in the market would be valid. Once the aforementioned supply zone or demand zone is breached, a directional bias would form. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This cross has been performing what can be called downswings and upswings for several weeks, with no perpetual trending movement. In October price reached a high of 151.38 and a low of 146.93. The current neutral phase in the market would not be over until the supply zone at 151.50 is breached to the upside; or until the demand zone at 146.50 is breached to the downside. Until then, strategies that take advantage of short-term swings in this market would thrive. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “No matter where you live or what your situation is, if you are willing to put the time and effort in, just about anyone can become a successful trader.” – TradingEducators Source: www.tallinex.com
  19. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market went sideways from Monday to Wednesday and moved further south on Friday (in the context of a downtrend). The bearish movement would continue this week, owing to a bearish outlook on EUR pairs for the week. Thus, price would test the support lines at 1.1600 (which has been nearly tested), 1.1550 and 1.1500. The resistance lines at 1.1700 and 1.1750 ought to do a good job limiting rally effort. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Although this pair did not move seriously last week, it was able to maintain its bullishness. On Friday, price closed above the psychological level at 1.0000 - ready to go higher from there. The outlook on USD pairs is bullish (most USD pairs would move slightly or significantly upwards) this week, and this is what enable the pair to go further upwards; as well as the expected weakness in EURUSD. Thus the resistance levels at 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0150 would be tested this week and next week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This instrument went upward from Monday to Wednesday, gaining 160 pips and testing the distribution territory at 1.3300. Further bullish movement was rejected at that distribution territory, as price plummeted on Thursday, losing 250 pips and reaching the accumulation territory at 1.3050. The accumulation territory (though it has done a good job to prevent further fall), would give way as price aims for other accumulation territories at 1.3000 (a strong territory), 1.2950 and 1.2900. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish On October 30, USDJPY went downwards, but it rallied on October 31 and then consolidated for the rest of the week. There are demand levels at 113.00 and 112.50, which should try to impede a bearish bias from forming. The market could go upwards this week, reaching the supply levels at 114.50 and 115.00 (and even exceeding that). As long as USD is strong, a vivid pullback may not happen on the market. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, this cross rallied 160 pips, after testing the demand zone at 131.50. The rally has turned out to be a good opportunity to sell short at slightly higher prices, for price has started coming downwards from the high of last week (133.13), closing below the supply zone at 132.50 on November 3. As long as EUR is weak, this cross would be having difficulty going upwards. In fact, price may go southwards more than 150 pips this week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Price is bearish in the short-term, and neutral in the long-term. Just like GBPUSD, it went upwards by 270 pips from Monday to Wednesday, topped at 151.92 on Thursday, and then dropped like stone (310 pips). There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and given the bearish outlook on GBP pairs, GBP/JPY is more likely to drop further than to rally significantly this week. The next targets for bears are the demand zones at 149.00, 148.50 and 148.00. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “The elite trader develops a serious approach to the financial markets, weighing risk against potential reward at all times. They hone their craft through detailed recordkeeping, carefully chosen data sources, well-defined trading edges.” - Alan Farley Source: www.tallinex.com
  20. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market consolidated from Monday to Wednesday and then dropped sharply on Thursday and Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which makes further drop a possibility. Since the outlook on EUR pairs remains bearish for this week (just as it was bearish for last week), the support lines at 1.1550, 1.1500 and 1.1450 are the next targets. However, the market would start rallying sometime in November, for the outlook on EUR pairs is bullish for November (especially starting from next week). USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USD/CHF gained 200 pips last week, moving briefly above the strong resistance level at 1.0000, but closed below it on October 27. The parity that was briefly achieved by USD and CHF would be achieved again this week, because the outlook on the pair is bullish for this week. USD is supposed to remain fairly strong, and thus, price would reach the resistance levels at 1.0000, 1.0050 and 1.0100 this week. But the bullish domination would not hold out very long in November, because it is expected that EURUSD would rally in that month, and this would cause a selling pressure on USDCHF. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument is slightly bearish. It has been engaged in short-term upswings and downswings for about two weeks – a condition that is expected to continue until a strong volatility arises in the market. The volatility would propel price above the distribution territory at 1.3300 or below the accumulation territory at 1.3000. In November, there would be strong movements on GBP pairs, which would be bullish in most cases. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Although there was no strong northwards movement last week, this pair is bullish. Effort to stay above the supply level at 114.00 has been thwarted, but a lot of activity remains around that supply level. A closer look at the market reveals that bulls are still strongly determined to push the pair upwards, and that is what they will likely achieve this week, for the outlook on certain JPY pairs is bullish for this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish EUR pairs became mostly bearish in the last few days of last week, and EURJPY was not spared either. The market initially made some bullish effort, but further bullish movement was rejected at the supply zone of 134.50 (which was tested several times, without being breached). From that supply zone, price plummeted below the supply zone at 132.00 (about 260 pips). The demand zones at 131.50 and 131.00 could be tested before price begins to rally this week. The rally would continue until a fresh opposition is met at the supply zone of 134.50. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross is bearish in the short-term, and bullish in the long-term. From October 23 to 25, some bullish attempt was made, but price came down in October 26 and 27. The outlook on the market is bullish for this week and for most of the month of November. Therefore, price would eventually rally, gaining at least 400 pips in November. There are demand zones at 148.50, and 148.00, which could be tried before price rallies eventually. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “One thing is true in trading: when things are going so well that it is hard to believe what is happening, don't change the disciplines and behavior that are working for you!” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
  21. The question above is common whenever I come across people who used to be traders. They started trading because they thought it was easy and because they thought they’d strike it rich. Nevertheless, they discovered that trading isn’t easy and after they dashed their heads into the rock many times, they gave up. Whenever one of them comes across me, they ask: “Are you still trading?” It’s simple. If they can’t do trading successfully, they feel no one else can do it, or very few people can do it. They gave up and they expected me to give up. Surprisingly, I have not given up. In fact, I got what works for me and I like it. It’s a personal strategy: Manual + discretionary. The World Of Trading Is Full Of Hypocrisy I’m sick of those who talk about their profits alone, but who hide their losses. When NZD pairs moved maniacally on October 19, I saw how many people posted the profits they made. But none of them would ever post loses they made. Very few traders would post their losses. The world of trading is full of hypocrisy. When someone makes 300 USD or let’s say, 300 pips, they post it on forums, WhatsApps group, Facebook, etc. When the person makes a loss, they remain silent about it. That’s why some rookies would come and think trading is easy – just because everyone is talking about profits. FACT: Trading isn’t easy, though the marketer would want you to believe otherwise. Success is, nonetheless possible. Liberate Yourself With Trading Realities You will never find a perfect trading system or signals service. You can’t avoid losses. But you’ll be OK as long as your average losses are smaller than your average profits. I recently showed one of my trainees my trading results. I placed a trade, I lost it (-1%). I placed another trade, I lost it (-1%). I placed another trade and I lost it (-1%). I placed another trader and I lost it (-1%). 4 losses in a row (-4%). I placed the 5th trade and I won it (+6.9%). I let my profit run. You see, I made sure that I limited my losses and I let my profits run. I didn’t throw away my strategy because of a transient losing streak, since I know it’s a statistical edge. There are many bogus high probability strategies (manual, automated or semi-automated) that can win 99% of trades in a row. But one big loss would wipe away everything. Think about the rest. It’s up to you. I’d end this article with the quotes below. Please read what these highly experienced master traders have to say: “It is the fear which tends to be the biggest challenge….It is fear which stops us from taking a solid setup in the markets because we have been on a losing streak, only to see it work out well and the opportunity missed. It is fear which causes us to not follow the trading plan and make irrational changes because that other trade failed to work. It is fear which causes us to get out of a trade far too early with only a small profit because we are scared to hold on in case it became another loser, and it is fear which makes us search over and over again for the perfect strategy which does not exist, simply because we think there is always something out there we are missing out on or don’t know about. Fear, my friends, is the biggest hurdle any retail trader has to face and will hold you back more than anything else.” – Sam Evans (Source: Tradingacademy.com) “But you know what I learned? I learned that people don't want to change. People don't want to be told that they have to change. People resent being corrected. Do you know anyone like that? It's understandable, right? It's not easy to be corrected. Yet experience shows that life as a trader is a life of correction. So whereas you may know people that don't want to be corrected, the fact is, if you are going to trade successfully you are going to have to learn how to receive correction. It's really the hardest part, what I'm giving you right now. It's the hardest part. Everyone wants to think that they are lovable just the way they are, and maybe they are lovable just the way they are but that's not going to necessarily help the real deep things that hide in your soul that will destroy true success. We can't like ourselves too much. Do you understand what I am saying? You know what to do, now do it! That’s a correction, by the way.” - Joe Ross (Source: Tradingeducators.com) “In trading we talk about the need for a variety of emotional strengths. We talk about the need to be calm, confident, and disciplined but we very rarely talk about the need for courage and the majority of traders fail because they do not have the courage to succeed. It is often bloody hard to hang onto positions that have very large open profits. Your brain plays all sorts of tricks on you and you begin to rationalise the foolish action you are about the take. I am quite certain that Ronald Wayne who sold his original share in Apple for $800 (now worth about $75B) rationalises that decision. Rationalisation is a wonderful human skill – it insulates us from the harsh knowledge of our own failings and traders are experts both making foolish decisions and hiding from them.” – Chris Tate (Source: Tradinggame.com.au) Traders’ Mindset: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html Source: www.tallinex.com
  22. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Price went down on Monday and Tuesday, went up on Wednesday and Thursday, and came down again on Friday. This kind of erratic, zigzag behavior has resulted in a neutral bias on the market. This week, a rise in momentum is expected, for price could rise above the resistance line at 1.1900; or price could fall below the support line at 1.1700. As long as price stays within the two boundaries, the outlook on the market would remain neutral. A movement to the downside is, however, more likely this week, owing to a strong bearish outlook on EUR pairs. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair has gained roughly 110 pips this month – making further bullish effort last week. Price has tested the resistance level at 0.9850, and it would test it again, breach it to the upside and then target another resistance level at 0.9900. This expectation would be easily realized as EURUSD slides further southwards (a likelihood), and as USD gains stamina. The support level at 0.9800 could be tested briefly despite bullish effort is being made. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The Cable dropped some 190 pips last week, testing the accumulation territory at 1.3100 before the shallow rally that was seen on October 20. The rally could turn out to be an opportunity to go short at a slightly higher price, for there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This week, the accumulation territories at 1.3150, 1.3100 and 1.3050 could be reached (especially as long as USD has some stamina in it). USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Early last week, USDJPY began to make some attempt to go northward, and the attempt was successful, for its price went upwards by 170 pips last week, reaching the supply level at 113.50. Further northwards movement is possible this week (a strong US dollar versus a weak Yen), and thus, the targets for bulls are located at the supply levels of 114.00 and 114.50. A very strong northwards movement could also cause another supply level at 115.00 to be tested. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish. This trading instrument consolidated in the first few days of last week, and then broke out northwards. The market went upwards by close to 200 pips, closing above the demand zone at 133.50 on Friday. This week, further upward movement is more likely than a downwards correct. A downward correction would be shallow and would get challenged by the demand zone at 133.00. Apart from this this, price is expected to reach the supply zones at 134.00, 134.50 and 135.00 before the end of the week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The biases on this volatile cross used to be neutral in the short-term and bullish in the long-term. Nonetheless, a bullish signal has been generated in the 4-hour chart, to corroborate the bullishness on higher time horizons. The outlook on the cross is bullish (as it is on certain other JPY pairs). The supply zones at 150.00, 150.50 and 151.00 could be reached this week. There are demand zones at 149.00 and 148.50: a formidable challenge to bears. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Following a detailed plan is important because it removes any underlying emotions from the decision-making process and thus enforces ongoing discipline in our trading activities. The less the trade becomes about us and the more it becomes about our rules and plan, the more we have steered ourselves towards achieving success in the markets on a consistent basis. The plan tells us what to do, as opposed to us looking at a chart and guessing what we should do.” – Sam Evans Source: www.tallinex.com
  23. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair went upwards last week, creating a short-term bullish signal, before price got corrected lower on Friday. This week, a movement above the resistance line at 1.1900 would reinforce the bullish bias (an unlikely event). On the other hand, a movement below the support lines at 1.1750 and 1.1700 would result in a bearish bias. The downwards movement is more likely because the outlook on EUR is bearish for this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF is precariously bullish. Price did not do much last week, save movement of about 50 pips to the downside. The situation of the market is currently dicey, but price movement would be largely determined by whatever happens to EURUSD. A weak EURUSD may cause the current bullish outlook on USDCHF to be sustained; otherwise a smooth southward journey would be witnessed this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish There is a “buy” signal on the Cable – with a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price gained over 210 pips last week, and there is much room for price to go upwards this week, reaching the distribution territories 1.3300, 1.3350 and 1.3400. The “buy” signal would not become invalid unless the accumulation territories at 1.3150 and 1.3100 are breached to the downside. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This instrument is bullish in the long-term, and bearish in the short-term. Price went downwards last week but not much (closing below the supply level at 112.00 on Friday). There would be a bearish signal when price goes downwards by 200 pips – and that may also bring about a bearish bias in the long-term as well. Should price go upwards from here, the extant bullish bias would be sustained. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish. The market went upwards in the last few days, testing the supply zone at 133.50. Then the market began to go downwards on Thursday, losing about 120 pips. The bias is bullish in the long-term, and would get strengthen as price goes northwards. There are demand zones at 132.00, 131.50 and 131.00 which would try to impede further bearish movement (for the bias would turn bearish when price goes below the demand zone at 131.00). GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish GBPJPY consolidated throughout last week, and the consolidation could go on this week until there is a rise in momentum. Price would either go above the supply zone at 150.00 (resulting in a bullish outlook); or price could go below the demand zone at 147.00, staying below it (which would put more emphasis on the bearishness of the market). As long as price stays below the aforementioned supply zone or above the demand zone, it would be deemed that the consolidation is ongoing, albeit in the context of an uptrend. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “And if your trading and investing goals aren’t written down (and reviewed regularly), then you have a much lower probability of achieving them.” – D. R. Barton, Jr. Source: www.tallinex.com
  24. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The pair has been going southward since September 25, having lost about 200 pips. Price moved briefly below the support line at 1.1700, but closed above it on Friday. However, rallies in this kind of market situation often bring good opportunities to sell short at slightly higher prices, and that is exactly what is expected. Another opportunity to go short would emerge this week, as price turns southwards again. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF has managed to stay bullish for the past few weeks – although price has not gone upwards significantly either. The market was trudging upwards, sauntered above the resistance level at 0.9800, but eventually closed below it on October 6. This week, USDCHF would maintain its bullishness, but it would not be able to move northward significantly until CHF is weakened. The bullishness would also be sustained as long as EURUSD remains bearish. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This market has been going downwards in the past two weeks, and price has come down by 470 pips since then (having come down by 320 pips last week). There is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the accumulation territory at 1.3050 has already been tested. The bearish movement can continue this week as other accumulation territories at 1.3000 (a strong accumulation area), 1.2950, and 1.2900 are tested. However, there could be some meaningful rally before the end of the week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Albeit it consolidated throughout last week; the outlook on this market remains bullish. There could soon be an end to the short-term consolidation, as price goes above the supply level at 114.00, or below the demand level at 111.00. A movement above the supply level at 114.00 would help strengthen the existing bullish bias; while a movement below the demand level at 111.00 would threaten it. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross is basically bullish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. Price did practically nothing last week, save moving sideways in the context of an uptrend. Nonetheless, a closer look at the market reveals that bears are about to gain upper hands, and thus, price could go towards the demand zones at 131.50 and 131.00 this week. The bias would not turn bearish until another demand zone at 130.00 is breached to the downside. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish GBPJPY moved south by about 360 pips last week, resulting in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook on the market remains bearish for this week, as price goes towards other demand zones at 147.00, 146.50 and 146.00 (and possibly exceeding them). However, there could be a serious rally before the end of the week, which cannot render the current bearish bias invalid unless the market rallies by a minimum of 400 pips. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “As traders, we are the ultimate rain makers. We are the producers. We are the profit seekers. We live by our wits, making decisions that others fear. We claim our freedom and provide an unparalleled lifestyle for those we love.” – Louise Bedford Source: www.tallinex.com
  25. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market lost about 200 pips last week, went briefly below the support line at 1.1750 and then went above it, to close above the support line at 1.1800. There is already a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further downwards movement is possible as price targets the support lines at 1.1800, 1.1750 and 1.1700 this week. This means that the shallow rally that was seen on Thursday and Friday may turn out to be opportunities to go short at slightly higher prices. The outlook on EUR pairs is strongly bearish for October; so EUR would be seen falling against other major currencies. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish The bias on USDCHF is bullish in the short-term; and the bullishness is even precarious. This week, it may be possible for this pair to retain its bullishness as EURUSD slides southwards. However, the bullishness of the market would face a challenge from another quarter, which is the expected rally in CHF. CHF may begin to gain strength versus other currencies within the next two weeks, and that may make it difficult for USDCHF to experience a smooth bullish run. However, USD would also gain serious stamina around the end of October – a factor that may help USDCHF to become a clear winner at the end of the month. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD was bullish in September, but the bearish correction that was witnessed throughout last week (at least a movement of 150 pips to the south) has resulted in a “sell” signal in the market. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week, and thus, long trades are not recommended for now. GBPUSD could reach the accumulation territories at 1.3350, 1.3300 and 1.3250 within the next several trading days. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument has gained at least 450 pips since September 11. The movement of the market would largely be determined by whatever happens to USD this month. A strong USD means price would continue going upwards, whether gradually or swiftly. On the other hand, a weak USD may cause a serious reversal on USDJPY as price goes downwards by at least 200 pips within the next few weeks. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross dropped southwards on Monday and Tuesday and then consolidated throughout the rest of the week. However, a closer look at the market reveals that bulls have subtly moved price in their favor, leading to an invalidation of recent bearish efforts. A movement above the supply zone at 134.00 would result in corroboration of the recent bullish bias; while a movement below the demand zone at 131.50 would result in a bearish bias. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish GBPJPY rose by 1,100 pips in September and got corrected on September 29, following the consolidation that took place in most part of last week. The correction was almost nothing when compared to the general bullish movement in that month. Price could continue to go upwards – but only in a limited way – owing to the expected weakness in GBP in October. This means that the market would go down by at least, 400 pips in October, thereby invalidating the current bullish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Successful trading careers start with plans that specify objectives, which in turn lead to success. There are psychological benefits to establishing objectives and developing plans to reach them.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
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