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Everything posted by analyst75
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD went downwards last week, tested the support line at 1.0500, and then rallied significantly on Friday. Actually, the Friday rally might end up being a good opportunity to sell short at better prices (unless the resistance line at 1.0700 is breached to the upside, which would result in bullish signal). This week, price could test the support lines at 1.0450, 1.0400 and 1.0350; for the outlook on EURUSD is bearish. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish There is still a weak bullish outlook on this pair, though it is currently showing some weakness. Price is now above the support level at 1.0050, and as long as EURUSD continues going downwards, USDCH would continue trudging upwards, possibly reaching the resistance levels at 1.0100 (which was actually tested and breached temporarily last week), 1.0150 and 1.0200. On the other hand, a movement below the support level at 1.0000 would result in a bearish outlook. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD dropped 200 pips last week, briefly moving below the accumulation territory at 1.2250, before bouncing upwards from there. The upward bounce is something that is supposed to be transitory, for the outlook on the market is bearish for this week. The targets to be possibly reached are located at the accumulation territories at 1.2250, 1.2200 and 1.2150. Some other GBP pairs like GBPNZD and GBPAUD might also be seen going bearish this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There is a bullish bias on this trading instrument, but this is nothing yet over-the-top. Price went upwards from the demand level at 112.00, reaching the supply level at 114.50 (a northwards movement of 250 pips). Since there is some kind of weakness in JPY, it is possible that the supply levels at 115.00, 115.50 and 116.00 would be attained this week. Should that happen, the bullish bias would simply become stronger. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross went north by 270 pips last week. Price rose from the demand zone at 118.50, and closing above the demand zone at 121.00 on March 3. There is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Since the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week, it is anticipated that this EURJPY would continue going upwards, reaching the supply zones at 121.50, 122.00 and 122.50 before the end of this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Traders, by their very nature, are optimistic risk takers. We believe we can make money. We say ‘Yes’ to risk. We say ‘Yes’ to learning about how to trade effectively. We say ‘Yes’ to a brighter future for ourselves and our family.” – Louise Bedford Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair went south last week, testing the support line at 1.0500, and then bouncing upwards on Thursday and Friday. The upwards bounce would turn out to be a good selling opportunity because price is expected to trend further downwards this week, reaching the support line at 1.0500 again and breaking it to the downside. The outlook on EURUSD (as well as other EUR pairs) is strongly bearish for this week and the month of March. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish There is a weak bullish signal on USDCHF. The signal is weak because price has moved upwards only by about 200 pips in the whole of February. There was an upwards movement last week, which pushed price briefly above the resistance level at 1.0100, before the correction that was witnessed in the last two trading days of the week. There is still a tendency for price to continue going upwards, as long as EURUSD journeys southwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral For at least, three weeks, Cable has been moving sideways, hence the neutral bias on the market. Price has only oscillated between the accumulation territory at 1.2350 and the distribution territory at 1.2600. There is a need for price to go above that distribution territory, staying above it; or below that accumulation territory, staying below it, before the neutral bias can be considered as being over. Until this happens, the bias would remain neutral. There is a possibility that GBP pairs would go considerably bearish in March, though they would make some attempt to rally around the end of that month. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This trading instrument is neutral in the medium-term and bearish in the short-term. Price consolidated last week, and then trended downwards on Thursday and Friday. This is an action that has led to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the short-term, which may enable price to reach the demand levels at 111.50 and 111.000. This does not rule out a possibility of a rally, since some serious bullish effort is expected on most JPY pairs in March. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There is a strong bearish signal on this cross, which has moved downwards by 350 pips so far this month. The market went southwards 150 pips this week, closing below the supply zone at 118.50. The demand zones at 118.00 and 117.50 could also be tested this week. On the other hand, a serious weakness in Yen may cause price to jump upwards, which is something that would possibly happen in the March. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “A good plan will include a well-tested strategy, a trading method, or a setup. Having a positive expectation should allow you to have the confidence to start trading your plan.” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish From Monday to Wednesday, this pair went downwards, moving below briefly below the support line at 1.0550. Price then rallied above the resistance line at 1.0650, before getting corrected lower on Friday. The outlook on the market is bearish, and further bearish movement is expected this week, as price targets the support lines at 1.0550 (which was tested last week), 1.0500 and 1.0450. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Oddly enough, the current outlook on USDCHF is bearish, just like the outlook on EURUSD. One of the reasons behind this is occasional bouts of stamina in CHF, which sometimes put checks on USDCHF bullish ambitions. The market level at 1.0000 has now become insignificant, since price just goes above and below it at will. For example, price went below it on February 16, only to go above it on February 17. Only a very strong bearish plunge on EURUSD would help push USDCHF upwards considerably. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral GBPUSD has been moving sideways for at least, two weeks. The market did nothing noteworthy last week. This directionless movement would soon end, and a strong momentum would rise, pushing price in a clear direction. A closer look at the market shows that bears’ hands are currently stronger than bulls’ hands, and following the ongoing impasse, price could plunge southwards. The outlook on GBP pairs remains bearish. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, price moved upwards from February 9 – 15, and then began to pull back from that day. On February 17, price closed below the demand level at 113.000, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The targets for this week are the demand levels at 112.50, 112.00 and 111.50. This, however, does not rule out a possibility of a strong rally before the end of the month. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross is bearish in the long-term and neutral in the short-term. The market consolidated from Monday to Friday and then started moving downwards as it plunged by over 120 pips that day. This is in agreement with the southward movement that was started in the beginning of this month; plus further southward movement is possible. On the other hand, a possibility of a serious rally still remains… on JPY pairs. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “For some traders, commitment to success is not optional but mandatory.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
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In Trading, What Can Be Measured Can Be Managed
analyst75 posted a topic in Forex General Discussion
In Trading, What Can Be Measured Can Be Managed I was having a catch up with my good mate and uber cool pad holder Jarrod yesterday – we both share a fascination with human performance. We are both interested in what we can get out of the machine we wander around in all day. As part of this quest he had recently been to see a dietitian who works with several AFL clubs and during the conversation they mentioned that as part of their regime they didn’t count calories. We both thought this was odd for the simple reason that without data you are operating in a vacuum, without knowledge about your calorie intake and in particular your intake of various macro nutrients you are simply guessing. And guessing simply doesn’t count when it come to assessing change. The point here is obvious, if you are not in some way tracking the performance of your trading then you have no means by which to judge your performance. Without having a series of metrics that tell you how you are doing then you are also operating in a state of ignorance and in many cases delusion. I understand that some people dont want to track their system since this would defeat the entertainment component of trading. Knowing how badly you are doing would take the fun out of it. The same is true for people who struggle with their weight – they dont want to know how badly they are doing. Ignorance is bliss. Performance tracking does not have to be complex – it only needs to tell you a simple story, how many trades did you get wrong, how many did you get right, what is your average profit/loss per trade and do you have more money at the end of the year than at the beginning. All this can be achieved in a spreadsheet with a little bit of playing around. Author: Chris Tate I’d like to end this article with some quotes: “Be careful! It doesn't matter how good you are, if you don't use proper risk management you will fail.” - Jarratt Davis “Having a diversified system does help but it does still make you wary of taking the next trade. But it always seems to be the next trade that you don’t take that turns things around.” – Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of http://tradinggame.com.au www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets -
Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair trended downwards last week, going below the resistance line at 1.0650. The movement so far this month is essentially bearish and there is a possibility that further bearish movement would continue to hold out, as the support lines at 1.0600, 1.0550 and 1.0500 are targeted this week. There is a need for price to go above the resistance line at 1.0800 before the current outlook can be rendered invalid. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF is bearish in the medium-term, and bullish in the short-term. In the short-term, price has moved from the support level at 0.9900, towards the resistance level at 1.0050. This has already generated a short-term bullish signal, and a movement above another resistance level at 1.0150 would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. It is important to note that price has succeeded in breaching the great level at 1.0000 to the upside, making more bullish movement very likely. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral GBPUSD is currently in an equilibrium phase – having moved generally sideways last week (though price was volatile on February 7). While the market could remain in the equilibrium phase, there is going to be a serious breakout this week or next, which would most probably favor bears. The outlook on GBP pairs for this month remains bearish and heavy selling pressure could start anytime. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The bullish expectation for JPY pairs did not materialize last week, save a weak rally that was seen on Thursday. The bias on the market is still bearish, and price could attempt to test the demand levels at 112.50 and 112.00. On the other hand, the bullish expectation on JPY pairs are still in place: JPY pairs could assume strong rallies any day this week or next; with USDJPY being caught in a strong buying pressure. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish From Monday to Wednesday, this cross pair went down 180 pips, testing the demand zone at 119.50. Price has been making some negligible bullish attempt since then, rallying by 170 pips and getting corrected lower on Friday. This kind of alternative but transient victories between the bull and the bear would continue until there is a protracted, directional movement, which is expected to be in favor of the bull. Short trades are may not be held onto for too long. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “By the way, the absolute best trading opportunities these days are in Forex.” – Dr. Van K. Tharp Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The bias on this pair is currently bullish. Price managed to go upwards last week, reaching the resistance line at 1.0800, but not able to stay above it. Several failed attempts were made, to breach the resistance line to the upside, and the goal must be achieved to save the current bullish bias. A movement above the resistance line at 1.0800 would reinforce the bullish bias – and failure to do that would eventually bring about a large pullback in the market. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This market has been trudging south since the beginning of this year. From early January till now, price has gone down roughly 350 pips. As long as EURUSD goes north, USDCHF will continue to go south, for only a serious pullback on EURUSD can bring a meaningful rally on USDCHF. CHF is expected to become strong this month; plus the resistance level at 1.0000 would endeavor to impede rallies in the market. It would be difficult for a strong rally to take place. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD made attempt to go upwards last week, but further upwards movement was rejected at the distribution territory at 1.2700. From there, price got corrected by over 200 pips, to close above the accumulation territory at 1.2450 on Friday. An upward movement from here would save the recent bullish bias, while a downwards movement from here would render the bullish bias invalid. Generally, GBP pairs are supposed to trend seriously upwards this month. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The current bias on this currency trading instrument is bearish, because price has been trending downwards since the beginning of this year. Price has come down more than 500 pips since January, and it is approaching major demand levels. The demand levels at 112.00 and 111.00 could be tested on breached, temporarily. There is a strong possibility that JPY pairs would rally this week (most probably within Monday to Wednesday), and should that happen, USDJPY would rally seriously. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The bias on this cross pair is essentially neutral, though there are bearish signals in small timeframes. The neutral bias can be ended by the expected rally on JPY pairs, which would also carry this cross pair along. Price might temporarily reach the demand zones at 121.00, 120.50 and 120.00. On the other hand, a serious rally would push price upwards by a minimum of 200 pips this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Don't let another year go by where you aren't inspired to cash in on everything the markets have to offer.” – Louise Bedford Source: www.tallinex.com
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Super Trading Strategies - Tapping the Hidden Treasure in the Markets “So much to know, so much to earn So much wisdom to seek and learn If we raise our hands, we’ll touch the sky Our beds are low, our dreams are high…” - Niyi Osundare I was born into a poor family of many children, and my parents struggled desperately to survive economically. I am a first-hand witness of extreme poverty, suffering, job loss and a high unemployment rate happening in the environment where I used to live. If you are reading this and you think you are currently suffering, you probably did not suffer as much as I did. Throughout my teenage years, I engaged in hard and exhausting manual labour to support myself and help my parents. This is one reason why I was fortunate enough to get an education. In spite of this, I was able to perform well at school because I developed an intense love for reading when I was eight years old. I liked to read anything I could lay my hands on. This has helped me gain lots of knowledge in many fields such as electronics, computers, history, literature, etc. When I was a young adult, the future looked bleak indeed! In spite of my knowledge, I was thinking of taking a loan to get a used car for commercial driving. However, I decided to teach at private schools for a time, for paltry pay, which managed to keep me alive. In 2007, my uncle called me and advised me to learn Forex trading, because it was very popular in my country at that time. I found someone to train me, but sadly, it was a poor training, and I suffered in the market for the next few years. No matter what I did I was losing money, until I got to a point where I began to think of doing something else with my life. I went to a friend’s house and I saw an old copy of TRADERS’ magazine on his table. I begged him to lend me the magazine. I went home to read it and I was enthralled by what Dr. Van. K. Tharp, who was interviewed in the magazine, said about successful traders. There I was! So there are successful traders! What are their secrets? What do they do differently and how might I benefit from their thoughts, trading styles and principles? The rest is a testimony… Get Super Trading Strategies, almost free here: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertradingstrategies/index.html These quotes end this piece: “The fact is, if you are trading in a professional way, you are out of the market much of time.” – Andy Jordan “Psychologists show that most people generally are overconfident about their abilities and about the precision of their knowledge. Security selection can be a difficult task, and it is precisely in such difficult tasks that people exhibit the greatest overconfidence.” - James D. Di Virgilio
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair went flat from Monday to Wednesday, not being able to stay above the resistance line at 1.0750. Price then declined a bit, in the context of an uptrend. Price has been going upward gradually since the beginning of this year, and this has led to a bullish bias, which would, however, be challenged in February. The downtrend may even start this week, as EUR is expected to become weak versus other currencies (except JPY) in February. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF went sideways throughout last week – slightly below the resistance level at 1.0000. Price may temporarily go above that resistance level, but it would later journey further south. Apart from the sideways movement that was seen last week, price has been coming down gradually since the beginning of this year, and this has led to a bearish bias on the market. The bearish bias should continue in the month of February, owing to expected stamina in CHF. A bearish journey in EURUSD may help bring about some transitory rallies on USDCHF, but the overall movement would be bearish in February. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Cable rallied 280 pips last week, topping at the distribution territory of 1.2650, before the shallow retracement that started on Thursday. Since the low of January 16, price has moved upwards by 650 pips, but the bullish bias that has resulted from that may end soon, as a result of a bearish outlook on the Cable (and some other GBP pairs) in the month of February. While, price could test the distribution territories at 1.2700, 1.2750 and 1.2800, it might not be able to go very far, as chances of serious bearish movements are very high in February. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument has been coming down gradually since early January, and that has led to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On Thursday, price began to rise and later on Friday, it closed above the demand level at 115.00. Further movement may take price towards the supply levels at 116.00, 116.50 and 117.00; and that may end up invalidating the recent bearish bias. Generally, the outlook on USDJPY for February is bullish. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross pair is bullish in the short-term and neutral in the medium-term. Price managed to journey northward last week, creating a short-term bullish signal. In February, the only factor that would help this cross further upwards is the expected weakness in Yen (which would also help most other JPY pairs to rally). In February, an overall movement of at least, 500 pips, is expected in favor of bulls. Nonetheless, there may be some serious but shallow pullbacks along the way. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “It's time to tap into your inner conquistador and become a winning trader.” – Trading Educators Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD moved upwards by about 100 pips last week, now testing the resistance line at 1.0700. The upwards movement last week was not strong, but it was noticeable enough to show that the recent bullishness in the market remains a valid thing. This week, the resistance lines at 1.0750, 1.0800 and 1.0850, may be attained, as long as EUR continues to be stronger than USD in the near-term. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF went down lower and lower last week, continuing the bearish journey that started early this month. The great psychological level at 1.0000 was tested again and again, but price could not breach it to the downside (staying below it). Price has repeatedly bounced off the psychological level, but as the bias is bearish, upwards bounces would only provide good short-selling opportunities. As long as EURUSD goes up, USDCHF would go down, and the psychological level at 1.0000 would end up being breached. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD began the last week on a bearish note (other GBP pairs gapped down and then started trending upwards). Price moved up by more than 410 pips, reaching the distribution territory at 1.2400. However, the strong rally was not enough to overturn the recent bearish outlook on the market. For the bearish outlook to be overturned, price would need to go upwards by at least, another 300 pips this week; otherwise, the rally that happened can eventually turn out to be a temporary rally that later confirms bears’ supremacy. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This pair went downwards on Monday and Tuesday and then started to go upwards from Wednesday to Friday. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. Unless price is able to stay above the supply level at 117.00 - which would require a serious rally - the bearish outlook would remain logical. There are demand levels at 114.00, 113.50 and 113.00, which may be tested again, in case price comes down. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This cross pair briefly ended its sideways movement when it assumed a southward journey on January 9. Price attempted to go further downwards last week, but further downwards movement was rejected before it reached the demand zone at 120.50. And since price has gone upwards on January 18 and 19, it has been forced back into a neutral region. This week, a serious northwards movement would bring about a “buy” signal; while a southward movement would simply bring back the recent “sell” signal in the market. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “What I do believe, most of the time, are the numbers on the statement of my trading account. If they are getting bigger, then I am winning.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD trended downwards last week, just as it was expected. Price moved sideways from Monday till Wednesday, when it started dropping further downwards. The support line at 1.0400 was tested, and although price closed above it, it would be tested again. The outlook on EURUSD is bearish for this week. So we may see further bearish movements which may enable price to break the support lines at 1.0400, 1.0350 and 1.0300 to the downside. Eventually, EUR might reach parity with USD. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish In exact opposite manner to EURUSD, this market underwent a shallow bearish retracement within December 12 and 14. Price went up significantly on December 14, moving briefly above the resistance level at 1.0300, and later closing below it. USDCHF would continue to make rally attempts, though it would come across some challenges this week. While bearish corrections could be contained around the support levels of 1.0050 and 1.0000, the resistance levels at 1.0300 and 1.0400 would be the targets for this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This market consolidated on Monday and Tuesday, to drop southward on Wednesday, according to forecast last week, in the context of a downtrend. The accumulation territory at 1.2400 has been tested again and again, but there is a considerable amount of opposition to the bearish movement, around the accumulation territory. Price would go below it this week, owing to the fact that the bias on GBPUSD (as well as some GBP pairs), remains bearish for this week and for the rest of this month. Price would still go downwards by a minimum of 300 pips before the end of this year. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish According to last week analysis, this trading instrument went upwards 300 pips last week, after moving sideways on Monday and Tuesday. Since November 9, price has trended northwards more than 1700 pips; and the northward movement could continue this week. There is Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the supply levels at 118.50 and 119.00 may be tested this week. As from now on, the movements on JPY pairs would be determined by strength of individual currency, not the weakness in Yen. This means USDJPY could rally further while GBPJPY could plummet. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There are going to be serious movements in the JPY markets this week (while next week would be quiet), and EURJPY would not be an exception. This is a bull market, and while there may be occasional pauses and consolidation along the way, there could be further bullish movement. However, the ongoing weakness in EUR could scuttle this expectation. As long as price does not cross the demand zone at 121.00 to the downside, the bullish bias would hold. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “In order to taste success in the trading market, you'll need to develop really simple strategies. You're likely to take trading decisions in a more confident way, remain headstrong and gain more winning opportunities when you follow some really simple strategies.” - Sean Lee Source: www.tallinex.com
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“It’s Monday morning. You are warm and toasty in your bed, hearing the world around you wake up. You allow yourself a little sleep in, and then pull open the curtains. Your swimming pool is shimmering in the sun light, and your outdoor lounge beckons. After a satisfying breakfast, the markets open, and you casually look to see how your trades are doing. Then you settle back on the lounge and plan out your day. On your terms. Answering to no-one but yourself. Safe and confident in the knowledge that your trades are working for you... This could be your future.” – Louise Bedford (Source: Tradinggame.com.au) In April 2016, I wrote about 3 best traders I’ve even seen. These brilliant trades aren’t stars in the world of trading, but they beat the so-called stars. Their outperformance is huge! I promised to give you an update on the result and identities of these mad geniuses. They’re really exceptional in that they even participated in another private contests, which consisted of 100 profitable traders, and they came out on top again. This happened in spite of the fact that the market conditions during the first contest was completely different than the market conditions during the second contest. So they have strategies that can survive all market conditions. I’m very happy for them. For a reminder, these are the details of their recent performances: The contestant who came first turned 2,500 USD into 1,433,480 USD (57,239.20%). The contestant who came second turned 2,500 USD into 741,365 USD (29,554.60%). The contestant who came third turned 2,500 USD into 713,076 USD (28,423.04%). The top three traders are Andris D, a Latvian; Bogdan D, an American; and LD N, also an American. This is no surprise, Americans are among the most effective traders on this planet. WHAT THE BEST TRADERS HAVE IN COMMON These traders were interviewed, as well as other profitable traders. I read the interviews myself and would like to give you tips on what they’ve in common. They were gainfully employed before they became traders They even kept their day jobs after becoming traders. One is a soccer player. One is an electrical engineer, while one is a former submariner and currently a wealth manager in a trading firm. Being gainfully employed before one becomes a trader will help one’s psychology, contrary to the impatient and risky tendency of a jobless trader. It’s good to become a trader while you’re earning a steady source of income, not when you’re jobless and destitute. Those who’ve sources of income find it easier to speculate with monies they can afford to lose. They can also make rational trading decisions because their existence isn’t dependent on a single trading capital. This goes in a sharp contrast to someone who must make profits in the markets or go hungry. When you talk about trading in the hearing of those who’ve good jobs, they’ll reply that they aren’t interested. However, when they lose their jobs, they come to trading as the last resort. This is the worst time to become traders. It’s far better to become traders when you’re comfortable, and when you become consistently profitable, you can then go solo as a trader, if you think that’s viable. They’ve years of trading experience before reaching profitability One has 6 years of experience. One has 5 years of experience; while another has 10 years of experience. This means they’d been playing the markets for long, before they got to the stage in which they can pull out profits consistently. Let me tell you a fact. It’ll take you years to master the markets personally. Anyone who tells you otherwise is fooling you. Even if you buy a good trading system, you’ll need some experience to use it successfully. The way an experienced trader applies a trading system is different from the way a rookie uses a trading system. Don’t think you’ll come to trading and start making consistent profits right away. It’ll take you some years to do that. They go into trading to make money This is why we become traders: We want to make money. The major reason these geniuses become traders is to make money, and they craved profits badly enough. They wanted better living standards. They wanted financial freedom. They were aware that trading brings wonderful opportunities. But you don’t make money because you want money. You make money because you’re persistent, perseverant, diligent, and patient. You need to crave success badly enough. They use manual and automated strategies Manual strategies are good. Automated strategies are good. There is a genius who made huge money based on manual trading only. There is a genius who made huge gains based on automated strategies only. As long as you control your risk, stick to your rules and approach trading rationally, you would be victorious. They’ve vowed never to quit trading Whether the going is good or bad, these exceptional traders look forward to trading forever (until they drop dead). Unlike undisciplined traders who threaten to quit when they face drawdowns and promise to continue when they see positivity, these profitable traders have decided to continue trading, come rain or shine. Would you keep on being a trader, moving forward in your journey to success? Or would you stop being a trader because of the current roadblocks? Would you give what it takes to ensure that you reach consistent profitability? May you be given the wisdom to make decisions that would make it possible for you to be a testimony to others in future? Conclusion: Maximiliano Lepez’s college professor once told him he was foolish for thinking he could beat the markets. That statement was enough to discourage many people from trading, or who would not take a word of a college professor seriously? But Maximiliano didn’t allow himself to be discouraged. He went to the battlefield of the financial markets and became a proficient trader, using algorithmic strategies. He’s the last laugh. This article is ended by the quote below: “It’s a matter of finding an approach that works for the individual. A person has to know whether they are comfortable with fundamental or technical, long term or short term, certain types of markets, wider risk or less risk… You can go through a whole checklist of things and find it’s different for each individual.” - Jack Schwager Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair made some bullish attempt in the first few days of last week. Price rallied 300 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.0850, before it began a serious bearish movement. The bullish gains that were initially made last week, were eventually lost as price plummeted, to close just above the support line at 1.0550, after testing it. The market outlook is bearish for this week, since EUR is expected to continue its weakness while USD would continue gathering stamina. There is a possibility that EUR would reach parity with USD in a foreseeable future. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, USD/CHF moved sideways from Monday till Wednesday, and then started moving upwards on Thursday, in conjunction with the extant bullish bias. Price tested the resistance level at 1.0200, and later closed below it. The outlook on the market is bullish for this week; price could reach the resistance levels at 1.0250 and 1.0300. However, it would also be seen that CHF is rallying versus some major currencies, which may prove to be a challenge for the bullishness of USDCHF. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable went upwards on Monday and Tuesday, reached the distribution territory at 1.2750. Price attempted to stay above that distribution territory, but the attempt was rejected as a southwards movement began, which eventually posed a threat to any bullish signal in the market. Price would move further southwards this week, going below one accumulation territory after the other. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for the week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USD/JPY consolidated from December 5 to 7, and the rallied on December 8 and 9 (though the consolidation started earlier than that). Since the low of November 9, the market has gone up by 1400 pips, and this would continue. As it was forecast every week in the last three weeks, the outlook on this market, and as well as other JPY pairs, remains bullish. The supply levels at 115.50, 116.00 and 116.50 could be reached this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There is a conspicuous Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this trading instrument, albeit it is currently volatile. Price has recently swung up and down in the context of an uptrend, but the overall movement would be bullish. The targets for the week are supply zones at 122.00, 122.50 and 123.00, which were all tested last week. The major reason why price is generally bullish here is because there is a serious weakness in Yen, and as long as the weakness continues, EUR (which is weak on its own), would manage to keep on going upwards against it. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading and markets have been a major part of my life for almost 60 years. Trading has been the means through which my family and I have received many blessings.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 22 “It never ceases to amaze me the impact that controlling your losses has on your performance.” – Chris Tate Name: Crispin Odey Date of birth: January 31, 1959 Nationality: British Website: Odey.com A QUALIFIED LAWYER BECOMES A TRADER Crispin was born in east Yorkshire and educated at Harrow School. His dad had been a head boy at that school. Crispin went to Oxford and got a degree in history and economics, after which he qualified as a lawyer. But instead of practicing law, he joined Framlington fund managers. He also worked at Baring, managing the Baring European Growth Trust. He founded Odey Asset Management in 1991, a London-based hedge fund. He’s now a partner at the firm, which has about $9.3 billion under management, and Odey personally running $4 billion of assets. George Soros was one of the original seed investors of the firm, investing $150 million in it. Crisping has been successful overall, but there were times he was wrong, like the year 1994, when he suffered a considerable amount of loss on his funds. Nevertheless, he thrived, like the year 2001, for he foresaw that the value of insurers would rise after the September 11 attacks on New York. He once worked closely with Hugh Hendry, thus the quip, “Odey in the 1990s was a one-man band; Odey in the 2000s was a two-man band.” In 2008, he made lots of money from bear markets of the year, growing by 54.8% and paying himself 28 million GBP. He’d shorted some banks, getting called a “Big Business Shot.” Whenever he lost some money, he lost some investors and his net worth declined. Whenever he made some money, he gained some investors and his net worth increased. Trading is a lifelong career. As of 2015, Crispin was worth £1.1 billion GBP, jointly with wife. He’s married to Nichola Pease. He lives in Chelsea, London and has a house in English Bicknor. What You Need to Know: 1. Crispin’s multi-billion hedge fund has world leading investors and has an exceptional performance record across their conventional and hedge fund portfolios. You've got to look at assumptions behind markets long before you look at markets. 2. To be a successful long term investor you must think like an owner - know when to take risk and when to preserve capital, according to Crispin. You need to preserve your capital and generate superior returns eventually. 3. Losses are great teachers. A loss may wipe you out. Another loss would teach you how to survive and another loss would bring you profits and enjoyment. 4. Your qualifications don’t matter much when it comes to being a great trader. When it comes to speculation, History degree is far more useful than a CFA [Chartered Financial Analyst]. 5. When you got great talent and skills and flexibility, you’ve control over your life. You may be under a boss, but eventually you may need to stand out on your own. Crispin broke away from Barings to found his own business at time when some felt that the private client side was playing second fiddle to the institutional business. Anyone with creativity had to operate outside the system. 6. Good traders have a knack for finding setups that would do well in spite of the vagaries of the markets. These markets are very hard to read, but some instruments would give you clear signals and you have to trade with confidence. 7. “Investment styles need to adapt as opportunities change. Living in investment denial must be avoided - if an investment is not working, we won't wait until it does,” says Crispin. 8. Good traders and investors are pretty good at making money; plus don't take too much out, either. 9. Other business also have their risks. Many people suffer in other areas of human endeavors. Crispin’s dad made money as an entrepreneur and then lost it because he broke his own rules. You’ll need to take your time to make money, thinking like the opulent. Don’t look for quick riches. 10. Genius traders fall and rise up again. A good trader may suffer a temporary loss, loss of revenues and loss of investors. Nonetheless, they would eventually grow, grow revenues and gain new investors. 11. You don’t know when a downtrend or an uptrend would end. Those who chase the market lose money, and those who get chased by the market make money. You need to stay ahead of the market. This article is ended with a quote from Crispin: “What we do is work very hard not to lose money. We don't live with hope in the portfolio; we live with fear. Our view of the market now is: Take care of the downside, and let the upside take care of itself.” Source: www.tallinex.com Super Trading Strategies: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertradingstrategies/index.html
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD consolidated throughout last week – in the context of a downtrend. A closer look at the market reveals that there has been some consolidation to the upside, and there would be some bullish attempt this week. EUR would rally versus most other major currencies, save USD, which is expected to continue strengthening this week. There are resistance lines at 1.0750 and 1.0800. There are also support lines at 1.0550 and 1.0500. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair also consolidated last week; while consolidation to the downside is revealed by a closer look. USD would remain strong this week, and would be seen going upwards against certain major currencies. The challenge is that CHF would also make some rally attempts this week, and thus, USDCHF may find it somewhat difficult to rally massively. There are resistance levels at 1.0150 and 1.0200. There are also support levels at 1.0050 and 1.0000. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Cable ended a two-week equilibrium phase by breaking out significantly. The breakout was well anticipated and it ended up favoring bulls, as price went up 330 pips last week, slashing through the accumulation territory at 1.2700 and closing above it. This week, Cable would rally versus certain majors (like NZD and AUD), and of course, it is currently rallying against USD. This is something that may continue, but not without challenge from bulls. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument experienced some bullish movement last week. Price went up 300 pips, testing the supply level at 114.50, and unable to go above that supply level. Price underwent some bearish correction on Friday, but the bullish outlook is far from over. In fact, the outlook on the market this week is also bullish, and further northwards journey is expected. Price would need to go above the supply level at 114.50, and then continue towards the supply levels at 115.00 and 115.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross underwent a smooth northwards movement last week, topping at 121.88, before closing below the supply level at 121.50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and further bullish movement could be witnessed this week. There are possible bullish targets at the supply zones of 122.00, 122.50 and 123.00. On the other hand, the demand zones at 120.00 and 119.50 should try to hinder vivid pullbacks this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Over the coming weeks and months, many excellent short, medium and long-term trading opportunities for low risk Forex trades will present themselves. Now is the time to put together your game plan with multiple edges to profit from these trending currency pairs… Whether you want to open investment positions (using the weekly or daily chart), swing trade the 4-hour chart, or day trade the 5 minute charts, the opportunities are going to be plentiful. With these nascent trends, the leverage, the liquidity, and the 24-hour-trading the Forex market offers, you have to ask yourself: why aren’t you trading currencies yet?” - Gabriel Grammatidis (Source: Vantharp.com) Source: www.tallinex.com
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REWARD VERSUS MEANING Trading success does not follow a linear trajectory, success ebbs and flows with good times and bad times. If you trade for long enough you there eventually will come a time when you question the decision you have made to become a trader. It all seemed so easy initially and there was never any consideration as to what could possibly go wrong. This is a natural part of the journey and it is a watershed moment because those who understand their own motivations will have sound concrete reasons for continuing. Those who do not or whose motivations could be termed shallow or materialistic in nature do not and it it those who do not who will most likely give up. Often when I ask people why they want to trade I get the overwhelming and immediate response – MONEY. After all this is a money profession – the aim of trading is to accumulate wealth through whatever approach suits your personality. It could be options or FX trading, or position trading equities. This pursuit of wealth as a sole driver is the reason why advertising in this industry is directed to switching on this particular hot button. Money or the accumulation of wealth has always been a strong societal driver. In technical parlance money is known as an extrinsic motivator – that is you do something right – you get a reward. It is a very Pavlovian arrangement. This arrangement is after all is the basis for capitalism. Traders are often caught in this trap believing that this is an exchange for labour profession when it is actually an ideas profession. This is a natural mistake because of all of our socialisation has lead us to this point. We have been lead to believe that labour be it in whatever form it takes is exchanged for money and money is the extrinsic motivator. Granted, some are highly motivated by such rewards since careers are built on this sort of behaviour manipulation but trading is not really a career it is in my eyes more of a lifestyle choice. Unfortunately many fail to see beyond this as an initial motivation. The issue with money as a motivator is that the subconscious cannot recognise what this means so it has no context for it. Therefore it cannot be integrated into ones psyche – it remains if you wish an outsider sitting on the sidelines attempting to steer what you do. But no matter what import you give to it as a motivation it is still an outsider and cannot directly influence the trajectory of your behaviour. The issue with this lack of integration is that eventually it will trip you up – the subconscious has a remarkable ability to go in the direction that it wants to go in. Not in the direction you think it should go in. And you and your trading suffer the consequences of this. In part this disconnect relates to the notion of the shadow which is an integral part of Jungian psychology. Essentially the shadow is the darker more destructive parts of ourselves which our conscious mind does not identify. And it these parts that often brings traders unstuck – the expression that is often bandied about is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Over the past three decades I have lost count of the number of traders I have seen who have been on the cusp of making it only to do something stupid. Sometimes the better angels of our nature lose the battle. To be successful at trading there is a need to integrate all of our beliefs, desires, and motivations into a cohesive whole as opposed to a jumble of vague ideas which revolve around money. Money as a motivation will fail to survive the first set back you have and there will be set backs since these are also part of the game. It is only deeper motivations that enable us to move on after being literally put on our arse by the market. To think that this will never occur is naive in the extreme but once again the industry itself is to blame since it only promises the new Ferrari not that you might end up actually catching the bus. A deeper reflection on why people want to trade reveals something other than money. And these answers reveal the true nature of the trader. Some relate to control of one’s life, others to time and having more of it. Others to what they will be able to do in the long term with their family. Such motivations are intrinsic; they are part of the fabric of the trader. Trading is merely a vehicle to fulfill these deeply held aspirations. The motivations that each person brings to a certain endeavor or choice is idiosyncratic and will not translate to someone else. Your goals only have meaning to you but this is the central issue, they have to be your goals and not someone else’s and this clashes directly with the way we have been brought up. The structure of our lives is largely built around fulfilling the goals others, be it doing what you we told at school through to following the instructions of your employer. Getting rich was often the payoff for following someone else’s instructions. It is not a value or meaning in and of itself. This is an important distinction because true motivations are based around meaning and not reward – Both Great change and great resilience comes from internal motivations and the strongest of these spring from the search for meaning. This means that the search for meaning is an internal search. You do something because you want to do it not because you will get a reward for it. Internal motivation brings about meaning and purpose and therefore adherence and dedication. Finding purpose in your own goals is a new experience for many since it is reflective of what you want from your life not what someone else’s either wants from you or wants for your life. This means that you have to undertake the hard task of writing down your meanings – what is your purpose in wanting to follow a certain path. It requires you to have your own philosophy and to be able to articulate what this is. This is the hard part – articulating what you want and you should be able to do this even if it is a struggle. Meaning has its own motivating qualities. I firmly believe that it is impossible to motivate someone irrespective of what the industry that has sprung up around positive thinking will tell you. Motivation and therefore reliance stems from meaning since true meaning cannot be dimmed by external events whereas simply being driven by a desire to have a Porsche by next Thursday will not survive the first hurdle. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of http://tradinggame.com.au/ www.tallinex.com wants you to be a successful trader
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Last week, this pair moved largely sideways in the context of a downtrend. A break out of the sideways movement should happen before the end of this week (or next week), which would most probably favor bears. Although this pair is expected to continue its bearishness, especially in December, some bullish effort would take place, which may enable price to go upwards by 200 pips or more, before seeing another bearish correction, eventually. Time would tell whether EUR would reach parity with USD. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Just like EURUSD, USDCHF also consolidated throughout last week, in a context of an uptrend. A breakout should happen before the end of this week, ending the current consolidation. Price is supposed to target the resistance levels at 1.0200 and 1.0300. On the other hand, bullish effort on the part of EURUSD might force USDCHF to retrace temporally southwards, towards the support levels at 1.0100 and 1.0000. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral GBPUSD went flat throughout last week. The flat movement started about two weeks ago and it has resulted in a neutral bias in the near-term, while the major trend in the market remains bearish. A rise in momentum is expected this week, which would most probably favor the dominant bearish trend. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week, and thus, further southwards movement is expected on GBPUSD. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY is currently one of the strongest moving currency pairs. Price went upwards 310 pips this week, topping at 113.89, before getting corrected a bit lower on Friday. Since November 9, price has gone upwards by over 1200 pips; plus the outlook on the market is bullish for this week, again (the outlook is also bullish on other JPY pairs). Therefore, occasional pauses and corrections are supposed to be transitory this week, as price goes further north. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This is also a bull market – owing to the strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern present in it. Price went north 250 pips last week, after consolidating on Monday and Tuesday. The supply zone at 120.00 has been tested, and it might be broken to the upside this week, owing to the ongoing buying pressure in the market, brought about by persistent weakness in Yen. After the supply zone at 120.00 is overcome, the next targets would be the supply zones at 130.00 and 140.00. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading and markets have been a major part of my life for almost 60 years. Trading has been the means through which my family and I have received many blessings.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair went downwards last week, going below the resistance lines at 1.0650 and 1.0600. Since November 9, price has come down more than 700 pips, leading to a very strong bearish bias on the market. There is a possibility of further downwards movement, which could enable price to reach for the support lines at 1.0550, 1.0500 and 1.0450. This expectation would hold only as long as USD does not showcase any noticeable weakness. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF moved upwards by 215 last week. Price managed to go above the psychological level at 1.0000, now at the resistance level of 1.0100. Price has gone upwards reluctantly so far, and there is a possibility that it would make further bullish effort this week. There is another potential target at the resistance level of 1.0200, but the further the market goes upwards, the higher the chances of a large pullback. The bullish bias would hold as long as USD does not lose stamina. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD underwent a vivid bearish correction throughout last week – an action that has resulted in a bearish signal in the short and long terms. Long trades are currently not prudent in this market, unless price action reveals that things are conspicuously bullish. Right now, the market is in a downtrend, and only short trades should be sought. Rallies would offer opportunities to go short at better prices. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern on USD/JPY. Since the low of November 9, the pair has shot skywards by over 960 pips. Apparently, this is one of the strongest directional movement in recent months, and the supply levels at 111.00, 111.50 and 112.00 could be attained this week. The outlook on JPY pairs remains bullish for this week (just as bullish movements were forecast for most JPY pairs last week). EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross also went bullish last week, fuelled by the buying pressure in the market, and as a result of weakness in Yen. Because Yen is so weak that, even weak currencies like EUR and GBP could manage to rally versus it. In case a currency is strong in its own right, just like the case of USD, the rally against Yen would be strong and fast indeed. As long as Yen does not become strong conspicuously, the northward movement on EURJPY would continue. The supply zones at 118.00 and 118.50 are being watched this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “YOU are the biggest factor in your trading success…” – Dr. Van. Tharp Source: www.tallinex.com
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Trading For Sure Profits Rule-based discretionary traders are among the best traders on this planet. The trading strategy explained here is a rule-based discretionary system. Similarly, the fact that the majority of traders fail does not mean that trading is a dead end activity. Traders who are successful prove otherwise. Occasional losses leading to transient drawdowns are inevitable but not insurmountable challenges in trading. The secret to success lies in developing a deep love for trading and a willingness to apply trading principles that work. Trading principles that work are non-market specific. For a strategy to survive all market conditions, it must have three ingredients incorporated into it: aborting losers and capitalizing on winners, very low risk, and rock-solid discipline. These are the secrets of trading masters – trading success has nothing to do with your ability to predict the markets accurately. If you give yourself a sensible reward-to-risk ratio, you will survive the markets in the long run. For instance, it does not make sense to risk $20 in an effort to gain $2. These secrets are what make the difference between financial freedom and financial disaster – the difference between solvency and bankruptcy. The Pedigree of a Good Strategy It is very disturbing that so many traders find it difficult to survive on the markets. Many top market speculators are perplexed by a new generation of traders who do not seem to have a clue about the skills necessary to preserve their trading portfolios. The issue is: even if you are disciplined, it would be difficult for you to survive with a worse expectancy system, i.e. a system whose risk is greater than the reward. And checking complex data ad infinitum is not so sensible for simple markets either. Good trading strategies are the ones that survive all market conditions. This kind of strategy must be effective in sustaining minimal drawdowns when the market conditions are not favorable – while making a decent profit during favorable market conditions. Whether a strategy is trend-following or countertrend or scalping, it will survive all market conditions provided that those simple but effective principles are incorporated into it. The markets eventually reward those who show an earnest quest for trading mastery. Winning Strategy for Short-term Trends: https://learn.tradimo.com/a-sure-fire-forex-strategy Breakdown of the Strategy Timeframe: Trading style: Indicators parameters: Buy rule: Sell Rule: Position sizing: Stop loss: Take profit: Trailing stop: Risk per trade: Potential reward per trade: Max. weekly drawdown: Safety rule: Filter rule: Instruments names: Average orders per week: Orders type: Signals generation periods: Winning Strategy for Short-term Trends: https://learn.tradimo.com/a-sure-fire-forex-strategy www.tallinex.com wants you to be a successful trader
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair started a bearish movement on Monday, which was briefly interrupted by a massive rally, caused by the U.S. presidential elections results. Price rallied 280 pips on Wednesday and started coming down that day, forming a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The support line at 1.0850 is almost being breached to the downside. While the support lines at 1.0850 and 1.0800 could be breached this week, there is also a possibility of rallies in the market (especially when USDCHF pulls back again). USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF moved sideways on Monday and Tuesday, and plunged seriously on Wednesday, November 9. The bearish plunge was quickly recovered as price rallied massively 290 pips that day, from a low of 0.9549, leading to a bullish signal in the market. Price could now target the resistance level at 0.9900, 0.9950 and lastly, 1.0000. However, a great challenge remains at the resistance level at 1.0000, which is a psychological level. In case price is unable to go above that psychological level, there could be a clear bearish correction. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Cable remains bullish in the near term, and bearish in the long term. The market is quite choppy, having consolidated from Monday to Thursday (in the context of a near-term uptrend), and then going upwards vividly on Friday. Further upward movement is anticipated this week, as the bias on the market remain bullish. The distribution territories at 1.2650, 1.2700 and 1.2750 may be targeted this week. The distribution territory at 1.2650 was tested last week, and it could be tested again, and a northward movement of 500 pips more, would cause a bullish signal in the daily chart also. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish As it was forecast last week, JPY pairs really made bullish attempts. The bullish journey started on Monday and it was briefly interrupted on Wednesday as there were temporary massive sell-offs on USDJPY. Price plunged by roughly 400 pips on Wednesday and rallied on the same day, plus Thursday, and consolidated on Friday. The market is currently above demand levels at 106.00 and 106.50, targeting the supply levels at 107.00, 107.50 and 108.00 this week. The outlook on most JPY pairs remains bullish for this week (with possible exceptions of AUDJPY and NZDJPY). EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The movement on this currency trading instrument was not as strong as that of USDJPY. The market is quite choppy while the outlook on it remains bullish. Should EUR gather some stamina this week, there could be more predictable bullish movement. Initial targets on the upside are the supply zones at 116.50 and 117.00. For price to go above these targets, persistent buying pressure is needed. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Take every trade that the system generates because you do not know where the returns are going to be generated.” – Chris Tate Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish From the weekly low of 1.0935, this pair went upwards by over 200 pips, to close above the support line at 1.1100 on Friday. Price is now close to the resistance line at 1.1150, and a breach of that resistance line would enable price to go towards another resistance lines at 1.1200 and 1.1250. As long as the support line at 1.1000 is not broken to the downside, the bullish signal, which has formed in this market, would remain valid. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USD/CHF was unable to go above the psychological level at 1.0000. An attempt to do that on October 25 was quickly forestalled – even before that psychological level was even tested. It has been mentioned that failure to breach the level might result in a serious pullback, and that was exactly what happened. Price pulled back significantly last week, to close below the resistance level at 0.9700 on Friday. This 210-pip bearish movement has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and further price decline is a possibility this week (unless USD gathers some stamina). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Following a few weeks of consolidation, GBPUSD rallied massively last week. Price went upwards 370 pips, to test the distribution territory at 1.2550. The bias has already turned bullish in the short term (though it would take another 1000-pip movement to the upside, before the bias on the daily chart can turn bullish). Right now, there is a strong buying pressure in the market and this should continue this week. Unless USD gathers lots of stamina, bulls would be able to reach the distribution territories at 1.2650, 1.2700 and 1.2750. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY consolidated on Monday and then plummeted on Tuesday. While going south, the demand level at 102.50 was almost tested, and this has brought an end the recent bullish bias. The demand level at 102.50 would eventually be tested, and probably breached to the downside. However, there is also a possibility that JPY pairs would make some bullish attempts this week, which could also be reflected on USDJPY. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument did not move very much last week. Unlike USDJPY, it was engaged in a slight bearish correction in the middle of last week; and the corrective actiion was ended on Friday as the market closed on a bullish note. This week, whatever happens to EUR would have some impact on the market. Before the end of the week, price would have gone either above the supply zone at 115.50 or below the demand zone at 113.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “I'm a full time trader. Nothing else…For all of you guys that think trading full time isn't possible, well I'm here to tell you it is. I actually met another full time trader the other day at the basketball court (trading for 20 years) and he trades millions of dollars. So I don't understand why people think that trading full time a myth...” – MarketAddict (Source: Elitetrader.com) Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair moved sideways last week, and then traded upwards on Friday. However, that was not significant enough to result in any bullish signal. The bias on the market remains bearish, and what happened on Friday could turn out to be a short-selling opportunity. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week, and therefore EURUSD would keep on being bearish. Price may thus test the support lines at 1.0900, 1.0850 and 1.0800 this week. The only thing could help bulls here is a large pullback on USDCHF, which is not likely this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument has managed to climb above the resistance level at 0.9900, before bears pushed back the price below it. The market has been consolidating for two weeks, though the bullish outlook remains valid. The outlook on USD is bullish for this week and this month, which means most major currencies would be weakened against it. USDCHF would make bullish attempts but there is a very difficult resistance level at 1.0000, which would require lots of buying pressure to breach. Should bulls fail to breach that resistance level, a pullback may materialize. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable has been moving sideways for two weeks, which has resulted in a neutral bias in the short-term. The long-term bias is bearish, and when momentum rises, it may favor bears. The outlook on the market is bearish for this week, and rallies should be disregarded, for they would be transitory and cannot be significant enough to bring an end to the current long-term bearish outlook. In November, large movements would be witnessed on GBP pairs, and they would undergo bearish movements in most cases. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish As it was mentioned in the last forecast, USDJPY has become bullish. Price moved upwards by 170 pips last week, to test the supply level at 105.50. The bearish correction that was seen on October 28 was just another opportunity to buy long when things are on sale, in the context of an uptrend. The most probable movement for JPY pairs is bullish for this week, though the situation may change before or by the end of November. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish In spite of the weakness in EUR, the EURJPY cross rallied by 230 pips last week. Price closed at 115.11 on Friday, after forming a clear Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. The current price action shows that bulls are still willing to push price further north, which may make price to reach the supply zones at 115.50, 116.00 and 116.50 this week. After all, it is expected that JPY pairs would make some bullish attempts in the week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Earning a trading income compared to earning an occupation income is just so damned rewarding!” – Louise Bedford Source: www.tallinex.com
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Larry Robbins: Trading with a Great Sense of Responsibility WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 20 “It sounds attractive to try and make a quick buck, but like anything else, real money is made by slowly compounding your returns.” - Andrew Beattie Name: Larry Robbins Age: 47 Nationality: American Occupation: Portfolio and hedge fund manager A COMMITTED, ILLUSTRIOUS INVESTOR Robbins was born into a Jewish family, in Arlington Heights, Illinois. He was a hockey star while in college. One source says he graduated with honors from the Jerome Fisher Program in Management and Technology at the University of Pennsylvania in 1992, where he received a B.S. in Economics with concentrations in accounting, finance, marketing and a B.S in Engineering, with a major in systems engineering. He became a Certified Public Accountant in 1991. Following his graduation, Larry worked at Gleacher & Company, spending three years there. He worked at Omega Advisors (for Leon Cooperman), spending six years. He left Omega Advisors, establishing his own firm, Glenview Capital Management, in 2000. This firm has been so successful, averaging 15% returns of net of fees per annum. As of July 2014, Glenview Capital Management had about $9.2 billion of capital under management. Larry was worth US$ 2.3 billion in December 215. He became involved in various charitable activities, and he’s an active supporter of education reform both in New York City and across the U.S. He’s also the Senior Chair of the Wall Street Division of the UJA-Federation. He’d four sons by his former wife, Amy Robbins. He lives in Alpine, New Jersey, with his current wife, Sarahmay Wesemael. He’s won awards. What You Need to Know: 1. It’s no surprise that Larry doesn’t use stops in his trades. There are many traders who don’t use stops and are hugely successful. However, using stops is safer. What does he also do differently? He holds stocks for years, being an investor; and perhaps, that’s one of the reasons why he survives the market in the long run without using stops. 2. Larry said: If you really want to be a good investor, you cannot just be involved, you have to be committed. It’s not about what you did before but about… persistence and continuity of work effort. 3. When you’re affected by a bad trading outcome, you’ll need to take it as a lesson. Most traders who lose may be young and inexperienced. They don’t realize how risky it is to walk into the waters without proper knowledge. But those who’ll end up making money in the markets don’t give up… They take what happen to them as a great education. 4. Larry believes trading isn’t just a job, it’s a passion, though it was almost by accident that he went into the hedge fund and investment business. 5. As a trader, think like an owner, not like a trader. 6. A trader who’s been engaging the markets for 12 years is obviously one that has had some success. That success is what allows traders to be responsible and philanthropic. Conclusion: Gainful speculation is not that hard on paper – know where to buy and where to sell when price looks to be going in your favor. Really, you got to know what it means to buy at a demand zone and sell at a supply zone. You got to know the meaning of doing this. Traders interpret demand and supply zones differently. When they look at the chart, they come with various decisions. You simply need to find ways to survive the markets while doing your own market analysis. This article is ended with a quote from Larry: “I don’t think that I have met someone who is very good in the investment business who isn’t hard-working, bright, talented, and focused.” Source: www.tallinex.com Super Trading Strategies: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertradingstrategies/index.html
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD dropped by over 100 pips last week. Price has dropped by more than 300 pips since October 10, resulting in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook on EURUSD (and other EUR pairs) is bearish for this week. Therefore, slow and steady downward movement is expected on EURUSD and the support lines at 1.0850 and 1.0800 could be tested this week. Rallies would proffer opportunities to sell short at better prices. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Bulls laid a decisive siege at the support level at 0.9900 (formerly a resistance level) from October 12 to 20. It was already forecast that bulls would not find it easy to break the level at 0.9900 to the upside. On October 20, bears gave way to the persistent bullish pressure, partly due to existing stamina in USD. Price was able to close above the support level at 0.9900 after testing the resistance level at 0.9950, and retracing. This week, further bullish movement is possible in the market, because USD is strong and because CHF would be weak this week. Some currencies would rally versus CHF and this would help USDCHF to go more northward, though a significant bullish movement is not likely. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD made a shallow rally attempt from Monday to Wednesday and then consolidated till the end of the week. As it was hinted in the last forecast, this week would witness more volatility on GBP pairs when compared to last week. This means the present consolidation on GBPUSD would end as momentum rises, though the outlook on GBP pairs is bullish for this week. In case GBPUSD rallies, we would not anticipate a serious threat to the extant dominant bias in the market. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY went sideways throughout last week – a situation that could be termed a sideways movement in the context of an uptrend. The outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week, and USDJPY might be able to rise towards the supply levels at 104.50, 105.00 and 105.50. This is a situation that could lead to a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. The supply levels at 103.00 and 102.50 would serve to restrict large pullbacks this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There is a bearish signal on this trading instrument, as price dived by 170 pips last week. One great factor that has contributed to this bearish signal is the weakness in EUR itself, and the only factor that could effect any rally on this instrument is the fact that Yen could become weak (thereby causing JPY pairs to rally this week). In case EUR becomes weaker than Yen, price would fall further. A factor that causes Yen to become weaker than EUR would bring some rally in the market. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: "When you understand the rules of the game, you can play the game like a master..." – James Altucher Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair trended downwards by 220 pips last week – just as it was expected. Price closed below the resistance line at 1.1000, going towards the support line at 1.0950. Bears may eventually target the support line at 1.0900, but they would meet some opposition at that place. The bias on the market is bearish, and any rallies seen here should be taken as opportunities to sell short at better prices. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USD/CHF was able to trend higher last week, managing to reach the resistance level at 0.9900. Based on the prognosis last week, bulls were unable to push price beyond the resistance level, though they may be able to do that this week, due to the perceived buying pressure in the market. The current price action shows that price is almost above that resistance level. Once price goes above the resistance level, next targets would be other resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000. Once again, it is unlikely that price would go above the psychological level at 1.0000, though USDCHF would remain bullish as long as EURUSD remains bearish. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable plunged last week, reaching the low of 1.2088 on October 11. Price then consolidated till the end of the week. The bias on the market is bearish in the short and long-terms, and thus, it is logical to anticipate another bearish journey once this consolidation ends. This does not rule out a possibility of a rally, which cannot be significant enough to threaten the current bearish bias. The movements on GBP pairs this week would not be as strong as the movements that would be witnessed next week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This market has managed to maintain its bullish stance; as price continued to trudge northwards. The supply level at 104.50 has been tested and it would be tested again. Some bearish forces would attract the current short-term uptrend, but unless USD itself experiences loss in stamina, the bias would not turn bearish. The bullish outlook would remain as long as price does not breach the demand level at 102.00 to the downside. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish EURJPY has not moved significantly in the short-term, though a closer look at the market reveals that bears have upper hands over bulls. As long as EUR is somewhat weak, price may face some difficulties in going up. Price is currently below the supply zone at 114.50, and it may test the demand zones at 114.00 and 113.50 this week. On the other hand, a movement above the supply zone at 116.00 would result in a clear bullish signal. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “My belief is that the markets are a very friendly place. Whatever you want in life, the markets will find a way to give it to you. I’m not being facetious here.” – Dr. Van K. Tharp Source: www.tallinex.com
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Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral This pair remains neutral in spite of strong volatility witnessed on other pairs and crosses last week. Price simply went below the support line at 1.1150 and then moved towards the resistance line at 1.1200, closing at 1.1200. The neutral bias would persist for some time, but a strong momentum is expected soon. Price needs to go above the resistance line at 1.1350, or below the support line at 1.1050, before it could be said that the neutral bias is over. This week, the most probable direction for EURUSD and some other few EUR pairs, is downwards. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument is neutral in the long term, but bullish in the short-term. Price went upward on Monday and Tuesday, nosedived on Wednesday, and went upwards again on Thursday and got corrected again on Friday. While it is possible for this instrument to go further upwards, the movement would be limited, because it is unlikely that price would be able to go above the resistance level at 0.9900. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern on GBPUSD market, and most other GBP pairs. As it was predicted last week, price dropped sharply by 880 pips, reaching a low of 1.2031. This is a persistent bearish trend. After that, price bounced back by 420 pips, to close at 1.2421. What next? Well, the forecast for this week is that, GBPUSD would be bullish (which is also true of a few other GBP pairs). Price would go visibly upwards this week, but that would not be significant enough to override the currently long-term bearish outlook on the market. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish As it was anticipated, USDJPY broke upwards last week, ending the recent equilibrium phase in the market. Price shot skywards by 280 pips, testing the supply level at 104.00 and the getting corrected by 100 pips. Price closed below the supply level at 103.00 on Friday, and that could be a good opportunity to seek long trades when things are on sale, and in the context of an uptrend. The outlook on JPY pairs remain bullish for this week, so price could go upwards again by at last, 150 pips this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Just like USDJPY, EURJPY went upwards seriously last week, testing the supply zone at 116.00 pips, before getting corrected by 90 pips. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the market, and further upwards movement could happen this week, thereby ending the current bearish correction. From the current locating, price may go towards the supply zones at 115.50, 116.00, and 116.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “I learned that the market truly is your greatest teacher and that trading is a skill you must nurture and develop. The more time you spend in the market, the better you are able to understand market movements.” - Michael Patak Source: www.tallinex.com