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Purchasing Managers Index The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is responsible for maintaining the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is the headline indicator in the monthly ISM Report on Business.The ISM is a non-profit group boasting more than 40,000 members engaged in the supply management and purchasing professions. The PMI is a composite index of five "sub-indicators", which are extracted through surveys to more than 400 purchasing managers from around the country, chosen for their geographic and industry diversification benefits. The five sub-indexes are given a weighting, as follows: Production level (.25) New orders (from customers) (.30) Supplier deliveries - (are they coming faster or slower?) (.15) Inventories (.10) Employment level (.20) A diffusion process is done to the survey answers, which come in only three options; managers can either respond with "better", "same", or "worse" to the questions about the industry as they see it. The resulting PMI figure (which can be from 0 to 100) is calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that reported better conditions than the previous month and adding to that total half of the percentage of respondents that reported no change in conditions. For example, a PMI reading of 50 would indicate an equal number of respondents reporting "better conditions" and "worse conditions". PMI is a very important sentiment reading, not only for manufacturing, but also the economy as a whole. Although U.S. manufacturing is not the huge component of total gross domestic product (GDP) that it once was, this industry is still where recessions tend to begin and end. For this reason, the PMI is very closely watched, setting the tone for the upcoming month and other indicator releases. The magic number for the PMI is 50. A reading of 50 or higher generally indicates that the industry is expanding. If manufacturing is expanding, the general economy should be doing likewise. As such, it is considered a good indicator of future GDP levels. Many economists will adjust their GDP estimates after reading the PMI report. Another useful figure to remember is 42. An index level higher than 42%, over time, is considered the benchmark for economic (GDP) expansion. The different levels between 42 and 50 speak to the strength of that expansion. If the number falls below 42%, recession could be just around the corner. As with many other indicators, the rate of change from month to month is vital. A reading of 51 (expanding manufacturing industry) coming after a month with a reading of 56 would not be seen favorably by the markets, especially if the economy had been showing solid growth previously. The PMI can be considered a hybrid indicator in that is has actual data elements but also a confidence element, like the Consumer Confidence Index. Answers are subjective, and may not always relate to events as much as perceptions. Both can have value to investors looking to get a sense of actual experiences as well as see the PMI index level itself. Bond markets may look more intently at the growth in supplier deliveries and prices paid areas of the report, as these have been historical pivot points for inflationary concerns. Bond markets will usually move in advance of an anticipated interest rate move, sending yields lower if rate cuts are expected and vice versa PMI is considered a leading indicator in the eyes of the Fed, as evidenced by its mention in the FOMC minutes that are publicly released after its closed-door meetings. The supplier deliveries component itself is an official variable in calculating the Conference Board's U.S. Leading Index. There are regional purchasing manager reports, some of which come out earlier than the PMI for a given month, but the PMI is the only national indicator.

Existing Home Sales Report The Existing Home Sales Report is a monthly release covering the number of existing homes that were closed during the survey month along with average sales prices by geographic region. The "closed" distinction is important because most closing periods are anywhere from six to eight weeks, so values listed are likely to relate to sales made about two months prior. The data is collected and released by the National Association of Realtors. There are three important metrics in this report; in addition to the aggregate number of existing homes sold and median selling prices, inventory levels are provided through the "months supply" figure, a number that represents the length of time in months required to burn through all of the existing inventory measured during the period. Data is provided raw and with seasonal adjustments. This is because weather is a big factor in determining month-to-month demand. As with the Housing Starts Report, the data is also broken down by geographic region (Northeast, Midwest, South and West). Price data will show percentage changes from the year-over-year period and the prior month. Whereas the Housing Starts release deals with construction levels and is therefore a supply-oriented housing indicator, existing sales are much more about aggregate demand among consumers. While not included in the Conference Board's U.S. Leading Index, existing home sales are considered a leading indicator as well because higher levels are typically reached when the economy is coming out of a recession. The inventory metric also points to how much slack exists in the housing market, as a high reading in the month supply figure means that prices could fall as inventory is worked down to more normalized levels. Besides business cycle considerations, prevailing mortgage rates are the biggest factors to consider when evaluating the sales levels. All else being equal, as rates rise, sales will fall as consumers wait for a more opportune time to purchase a home. If home sales are strong, other consumer industries may see an uptick in sales, such as home improvement retailers and retail mortgage lenders. Because of the lag between when a sale is made and when closing occurs, the report is not as timely as the Housing Starts Report, but the sample size is larger and less likely to have large revisions. Also, condominium sales are included in this report, but not in the starts report.

Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the benchmark inflation guide for the U.S. economy. It uses a "basket of goods" approach that aims to compare a consistent base of products from year to year, focusing on products that are bought and used by consumers on a daily basis. The price of your milk, eggs, toothpaste and hair cut are all captured in the CPI. There are two presented CPI figures, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), and the CPI for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The most watched metric, Core CPI (with food and energy prices removed) is the CPI-U, which will usually be presented with a seasonal adjustment, as consumer patterns vary widely depending on the time of year. The current base year for the CPI is 1982, so changes will typically be provided on a percentage basis to reflect only changes to prior index levels. Numbers will also be shown as an annual run rate of growth, to give investors a sense of the near-term inflationary outlook. The Chain-Weighted CPI is also released along with the Core CPI, and is gaining momentum as a metric worth following, as Chain-Weighted CPI captures the effects of consumer choice. Chain-weighted CPI numbers are considered by many to be more reflective of actual consumer patterns than fixed CPI figures, as the chain-weighted index accounts for the substitution and new product bias that exists in the fixed CPI. If a consumer buys one product over another because of a price hike in the first product, chain-weighted figures will capture this buying shift, while Core CPI will not. Core CPI will continue measuring the price of the good as it rises, regardless of whether fewer people are purchasing the product. The CPI is an extremely detailed release, with breakouts for most major consumer groups (such as food and beverage, apparel, recreation, etc.) and geographical regions, which are supplied by the "CPI U.S. City Averages" The CPI is probably the single most important economic indicator available, if for no other reason than because it's very final. Many other indicators derive most of their value from the predictive ability of the CPI, so when this release arrives, many questions will be answered in the markets. This report will often move both equity and fixed-income markets, both the day of the release and on an ongoing basis. It may even set a new course in the markets for upcoming months. Analysts will be more sure of their convictions about what the Fed will do at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting after digesting the Consumer Price Index. The CPI is used to make adjustments to many cash flow mechanisms (pensions, Medicare, cost of living adjustments to insurance policies, etc.). As a result, most investors will find that the CPI affects them personally in some way. Fixed-income investors should always be aware of the rate of inflation against which they judge their investments; it is imperative to keep current yields ahead of inflation, or real wealth will fall.

Gross Domestic Product The gross domestic product (GDP) is the godfather of the indicator world. As an aggregate measure of total economic production for a country, GDP represents the market value of all goods and services produced by the economy during the period measured, including personal consumption, government purchases, private inventories, paid-in construction costs and the foreign trade balance (exports are added, imports are subtracted). Presented only quarterly, GDP is most often presented on an annualized percent basis. Most of the individual data sets will also be given in real terms, meaning that the data is adjusted for price changes, and is therefore net of inflation. The GDP is an extremely comprehensive and detailed report. In fact, reading the GDP report brings us back to many of the indicators covered in earlier tutorial topics, as GDP incorporates many of them: retail sales, personal consumption and wholesale inventories are all used to help calculate the gross domestic product. Various chain-weighted indexes discussed in earlier topics are used to create Real GDP Quantity Indexes with a current base year of 2000 Real GDP is the one indicator that says the most about the health of the economy and the advance release will almost always move markets. It is by far the most followed, discussed and digested indicator out there - useful for economists, analysts, investors and policy makers. The general consensus is that 2.5-3.5% per year growth in real GDP is the range of best overall benefit; enough to provide for corporate profit and jobs growth yet moderate enough to not incite undue inflationary concerns. If the economy is just coming out of recession, it is OK for the GDP figure to jump into the 6-8% range briefly, but investors will look for the long-term rate to stay near the 3% level. The general definition of an economic recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. While the value of both exports and imports are included in the GDP report, imports are subtracted from total GDP, meaning that all consumer purchases of imported items are not counted as contributions toward GDP. Because the U.S. runs a current account deficit, importing far more than is exported, reported GDP figures have a slight drag on them. A related measure provided in the report, gross national product (GNP), goes one step further by only counting the value of goods and services produced by labor and property within the United States. (To learn more, read Current Account Deficits.) The "corporate profits" and "inventory" data in the GDP report are a great resource for equity investors, as both categories show total growth during the period; corporate profits data also displays pre-tax profits, operating cash flows and breakdowns for all major sectors of the economy. The biggest downside of this data is its lack of timeliness; investors only get one update per quarter and revisions can be large enough to significantly change the percentage change in GDP. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) even supplies its own analysis of the quarterly data, presenting several useful documents that condense the massive release down to a manageable and readable size. They also provide an annual analysis of data that segments results down to the industry level - a very useful tool for both equity and fixed-income investors who are interested in particular industries related to their holdings.

inflation and interest rate are razor sharpend on both side - (if fact you should call it all sides - as it has many side ways movement) When interest rate rise money flow will be towards secured debt market and liquidity is contained - funds availabilty in the maket will be rationalised - it does not guarantee lower inflation - in fact it will have higher inflation because of cash flow management - Bank lending rate will be higher and it will have cascading effect of higher production cost - higher inflation. short term capital inflow will further confuse the strong economy. if int rate is low (int. cut) debt market will sink and there will be more liquidity and this fuel inflation and outflow of capital to other countries where interest rate is higher or to sound economy (out of country) will this reduce the currency valuation. this will also fuel inflation. only best judgement in stabiliting economy will give good result - but it takes 1 to 2 years for correction

One of the great advantages of trading currencies is that the forex market is open 24 hours a day (from 5pm EST on Sunday until 4pm EST Friday). Economic data tends to be one of the most important catalysts for short-term movements in any market, but this is particularly true in the currency market, which responds not only to U.S. economic news, but also to news from around the world. With at least eight major currencies available for trading at most currency brokers and more than 17 derivatives of them, there is always some piece of economic data slated for release that traders can use to inform the positions they take. Generally, no less than seven pieces of data are released daily from the eight major currencies or countries that are most closely followed. So for those who choose to trade news, there are plenty of opportunities. Here we look at which economic news releases are released when, which are most relevant to forex (FX) traders, and how traders can act on this market-moving data. Which Currencies Should Be Your Focus? The following are the eight major currencies: 1. U.S. dollar (USD) 2. Euro (EUR) 3. British pound (GBP) 4. Japanese yen (JPY) 5. Swiss franc (CHF) 6. Canadian dollar (CAD) 7. Australian dollar (AUD) 8. New Zealand dollar (NZD) This is just a sample of some of the more liquid derivatives based on the currencies above: 1. EUR/USD 2. USD/JPY 3. AUD/USD 4. GBP/JPY 5. EUR/CHF 6. CHF/JPY As you can see from these lists, the currencies that we can easily trade span the entire globe. This means that you can handpick the currencies and economic releases to which you pay particular attention. But, as a general rule, since the U.S. dollar is on the "other side" of 90% of all currency trades, U.S. economic releases tend to have the most pronounced impact on the market. What Are the Key Releases? When trading news, you first have to know which releases are actually expected that week. Second, it is key for you to know which data is important. Generally speaking, these are the most important economic releases for any country: 1. Interest rate decision 2. Retail sales 3. Inflation (consumer price or producer price) 4. Unemployment 5. Industrial production 6. Business sentiment surveys 7. Consumer confidence surveys 8. Trade balance 9. Manufacturing sector surveys

THE PHILLIPS CURVE The Phillips Curve is a graph that illustrates the observed relationship between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. It is a downward sloping curve, indicating that a trade-off exists between inflation and unemployment. This has important implications for government policies that attempt to achieve economic stability. Expansionary policies may reduce unemployment at the expense of higher inflation. Contractionary policies may reduce inflation at the cost of higher unemployment. Activist government policies, then, require that the costs and benefits associated with such policies be considered. Policies tend to adjust as economic realities change the perceived costs and benefits over time. Why does the relationship between inflation and unemployment exist? Economists have come up with a few possible reasons: Leverage on wages Production bottlenecks Normal shifts in aggregate demand and aggregate supply Leverage on Wages Changes in the price level are closely related to changes in wage rates. In fact, the original Phillips Curve was developed to show the observed relationship between wage inflation, not price inflation, and unemployment. Economists at a later time changed it to show price inflation in part because of the close relationship between wage inflation and price inflation. Wages contribute a large share of the costs of production. During times of economic expansion, profits are high and few replacement workers are available. Workers are in a good position to bargain for higher wages. Businesses would stand to lose a lot of profits if a labor strike occurred. With aggregate demand high, businesses can more easily pass along the increase in labor costs to their customers in the form of higher prices. The result of this situation: Low unemployment resulting in upward pressure on wages and prices. Unemployment decreases while inflation increases. However, when unemployment is high, businesses have more leverage than workers. Workers can be more easily replaced because of the large pool of unemployed workers. Sales and profits are low so the opportunity costs of a strike will be relatively low. Workers know the possibility of unemployment is very real, and the priority of keeping a job increases relative to the priority of wage increases. The result of this situation: High unemployment resulting in little upward pressure on wages and prices. Unemployment increases while inflation decreases.

Detailed gross domestic product results for the 1st quarter of 2013 The German economy is slow in gaining momentum. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release of 15 May 2013, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by just 0.1 % - upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment - in the first quarter of 2013 compared with the previous quarter, according to provisional calculations. One of the reasons for this small growth at the beginning of the year, however, was the extremely cold weather. As reported earlier, the German economy had suffered a major setback in the last quarter of 2012 (–0.7%). For the entire year of 2012, GDP values did not change as compared with the figures published so far (+0.7%; calendar-adjusted +0.9%). As regards domestic demand in the reference quarter, different developments were reported. In a quarter-on-quarter comparison, positive contributions were made almost only by household final consumption expenditure, which rose by 0,8 % upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. However, they had decreased by 0,3 % in the last quarter of 2012, according to the most recent calculations. As regards gross fixed capital formation, the negative trend of 2012 continued. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment was down 0.6% on the previous quarter, in construction it fell by 2.1%. General government slightly reduced its final consumption expenditure by 0.1%. The balance of exports and imports had almost no effect on economic growth in the first quarter of 2013 (contribution to growth of +0.1 percentage points). Although imports of goods and services were down 2.1% on the last quarter of 2012, exports decreased, too (–1.8%). The following information refers to the year-on-year comparison: Compared with a year earlier, the price-adjusted GDP was down 1.4% in the first quarter of 2013. However, this considerable decrease was largely due to calendar factors. The reference quarter had fewer working days than the same quarter a year earlier. Reasons are mainly the leap year of 2012 and the fact that the Easter holidays fell into different quarters. In calendar-adjusted terms, the GDP decreased by just 0.2%. The economic performance in the first quarter of 2013 was achieved by 41.5 million persons in employment whose place of employment was in Germany (domestic concept), which was an increase of 293,000 or 0.7% on a year earlier. Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted GDP per person in employment) declined by 2.1 % in the first quarter of 2013 compared with the first quarter of 2012. When measured per hour worked by persons in employment, however, labour productivity increased slightly by 0.2 % according to first provisional calculations because, on average, the number of hours worked per person in employment was by 2.3 % lower than in the previous year. On the use side of the gross domestic product, almost all price-adjusted aggregates decreased on the same period a year earlier. However, in 2012, the German economy had started the year with a considerable growth, so that the current decreases are in part basis-related effects. Here are the detailed results: Businesses and general government continued to cut down on investments – price-adjusted gross fixed capital formation was markedly down on a year earlier both in machinery and equipment (–10.3%) and in construction (–6.2%). Although the largest decrease was recorded for public underground construction, lower gross fixed capital formation than a year earlier was observed for industrial construction and total dwellings, too. Household final consumption expenditure was down 0.4% on the first quarter of 2012. Only government final consumption expenditure rose slightly (+0.3%). On the whole, domestic uses were down 1.4 % on a year earlier. Foreign trade did not provide any positive contribution in the first quarter of 2013,, either. Although price-adjusted imports of goods and services were down on a year earlier (–2.0%), price-adjusted exports of goods and services, too, decreased in the same period (–1.9%). Consequently, the balance of exports and imports could not compensate for the weak domestic performance and, in a year-on-year comparison, too, it had almost no effect on the GDP (contribution to growth of –0.1 percentage points). On the production side of the gross domestic product, the individual economic sectors showed quite diverging trends at the beginning of 2013: While the majority of the service branches managed to maintain or improve their economic performance compared with a year earlier, the price-adjusted gross value added in trade, transport, accommodation and food services and in other services was down 1.2% each. The economic performance in construction (–7.2%) and in manufacturing (–4.4%) has been decreasing for a year now. At current prices, the gross domestic product was up by 0.7 % and the gross national income by 0.8 % in the first quarter of 2013 on the first quarter of 2012. The net national income (at factor costs) rose a total 0.8%, too, with the two components showing most different trends: While the compensation of domestic employees was up 3.4 %, property and entrepreneurial income was down 3.8 % according to first provisional calculations. Wages and salaries of employees rose 3.6 % on a year earlier, in both gross and net terms, but the average increase per employee was only 2.6 % at the beginning of 2013. The disposable income of households rose 0.5 %, the final consumption expenditure of households at current prices increased by 1.1 %. This resulted in a provisional savings ratio of households of 13.1 % in the first quarter of 2013 (for comparison: 13.6% in the first quarter of 2012).

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German Ifo Sentiment Probabaly Remains Unchanged German business confidence was probably unchanged in May after two monthly declines amid doubts over the economic recovery. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, will remain at 104.4, according to the median of 44 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Ifo releases the report at 10 a.m. in Munich today. The German economy, Europe’s largest, grew just 0.1 percent in the first quarter after a 0.7 percent contraction in the final three months of 2012 as an unusually long winter damped construction and investment. The Bundesbank said this week that while risks stemming from Europe’s debt crisis remain high, the economy will gather pace in the current quarter. Factory orders surged for a second month in March and exports increased. “The economy is expanding very slowly but at least it’s expanding again,” said Andreas Moeller, an analyst at WGZ Bank in Dusseldorf, who predicts the Ifo index will drop to 103.7. “Compared to the rest of the euro area, Germany is doing pretty well.” Gross domestic product in the 17-nation currency bloc, Germany’s biggest export market, fell 0.2 percent in the first three months this year. It was the sixth straight contraction, making the current recession the longest in the euro’s 14-year history. ECB Action The European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.5 percent on May 2 and President Mario Draghi said he stands ready to act again if the economic outlook deteriorates. The Frankfurt-based central bank forecasts the euro-area economy will shrink 0.5 percent this year before growing 1 percent in 2014. That compares with the Bundesbank’s prediction of 0.4 percent growth in Germany this year. Puma SE (PUM), Europe’s second-largest maker of sporting goods, on May 14 cut its revenue and profit forecasts for this year after reporting first-quarter earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates. The “business climate in Europe remains challenging,” the Herzogenaurach, Germany-based company said in a statement. Some German companies are compensating for weaker demand in Europe with sales to faster growing markets abroad. Deutsche Post AG (DPW), Europe’s largest postal service, on May 14 reported profit that beat analysts’ predictions because of growth at express-delivery businesses in emerging markets. “We’ve gotten off to a very solid start for the year in what is a very difficult macroeconomic environment,” Chief Financial Officer Larry Rosen said. “The German economy will expand for the rest of the year but we should get ready for very low growth numbers,” said Anatoli Annenkov, an economist at Societe Generale SA in London, who predicts the Ifo index will ease to 104 this month. “Uncertainty will continue to weigh on exports to the euro area,” he said.

Yen Rises Versus Peers as Japan’s Stocks Fall; Dollar Advances The yen rose against all major peers as stocks reversed an earlier advance and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank had announced sufficient monetary easing. The dollar strengthened versus most of its counterparts before U.S. data that economists say will show durable goods orders and consumer confidence rose, backing the case for the Federal Reserve to slow stimulus. Markets in Singapore are shut today for a national holiday, and those in the U.S. and U.K. will be closed on May 27. “Investors have bought both Japanese stocks and dollar-yen, so when the equities are sold, the pair is susceptible to a drop,” said Hiroshi Yoshida, a senior portfolio manager in Tokyo at MassMutual Life Insurance Co. “Position adjustments are more likely before the three-day holiday.” The yen climbed 0.8 percent to 101.23 per dollar as of 1:40 p.m. in Tokyo, adding to a 1.1 percent gain yesterday. It jumped 0.8 percent to 130.85 per euro. The dollar was little changed at $1.2930 per euro. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average erased an earlier advance of as much as 3.6 percent, sliding 2.5 percent. It tumbled 7.3 percent yesterday, the most since the aftermath of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. SOURCE: bloomberg.com

Japan stocks rebound from overnight collapse as yen-sellers resurface conomic Data - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): 157M V 515ME (3-month low); EXPORTS: 3.95B V 4.06BE; IMPORTS: 3.80B V 3.60BE - (PH) PHILIPPINES MAR TRADE BALANCE: -$593M V -$967M PRIOR; TOTAL IMPORTS: $4.9B V $4.7B PRIOR; TOTAL IMPORTS: -8.4% V -5.8% Y/Y Markets Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT) - Nikkei225 +2.9% - S&P/ASX -1.3% - Kospi +0.1% - Shanghai Composite +0.3% - Hang Seng flat - Jun S&P500 +0.2% at 1,653 - Jun gold +0.1% at $1,393/oz - Jul crude oil flat at $94.25/brl Observations/Insights - Outsized losses in Tokyo equities are being corrected in the final session of the week as traders swooped in to put a floor under the free-fall in the yen pairs overnight. Yen selling has returned amid the prevailing sentiment of USD-bullishness, pushing USD/JPY back above the ¥102 handle after falling below ¥101 during the volatile European session. Risk aversion has subsided after a panicky US start, with the calm carried over into the Asian hours that is fairly devoid of notable economic data. Japan's cabinet officials as well as BOJ Gov Kuroda smoothed over concerns, reiterating the JGB and equity markets are being closely watched, and the primary policymakers focus is beating deflation. Note the 10-yr JGB yield, which fell over 15bps from overnight 1% highs after the BOJ liquidity injection, is back in high 0.80%'s. Market focus turns to the IFO data out of Germany in the early European session as well as the leading durable goods indicator out of the US at 8:30amET, with consensus looking for a recovery from two consecutive months of underwhelming results on both measures. Fixed Income/Commodities - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1867 v 6.1340 prior close (record high setting for yuan) - JGB: 10-year JGB yield rises 4.5bps to 0.88% - (JP) Societe Generale analyst: Long-term JGB yields may still rise to 1.4% by the end of 2013; Inflationary monetary policy makes rates susceptible to upward pressure - Nikkei News - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 1.5 tons to 1,018.6 ton (lowest since 1,008.8 tons in Feb of 2009) - (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Assets Week ending May 22nd: $3.356T (**record high) v $3.311T prior; M1: +$3.3B v -$57B prior; M2: +$12.7B v +$5.2B prior Speakers/Political/In the Papers - (JP) BOJ gov Kuroda: Reiterates no particular targets for equities and forex; Wants to avoid volatility in bond market as much as possible - (JP) Japan PM Abe: declines to comment on equities market movement; Govt finances are in very dire situation - (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: no comment on stock moves - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: not worried about Thursday stock moves; Govt is mapping out details for a fiscal reform plan - (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: No comment on recent volatility in FX, JGB, and equity markets - (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Kim: US exit from QE may affect other economies - (AU) Australia PM Gillard: Australia has strong fundamentals, but economy is in transition; Resources jobs to decline - (EU) ECB's Draghi: Eurozone is a more stable union than it was a year ago; Seeing signs of tangible improvement in lending and financial conditions; Encouraged by progress and preparations made by France and Germany on giving up the necessary degree of sovereignty - (DE) German Finance Ministry monthly report: Apr tax Rev rose 0.4% y/y; Federal govt revenue fell 2.8%; States' Rev rose 3.3% y/y - financial press Equities - Hyundai Motor 005380.KR: Follow-up: Reach agreement to resume weekend production starting with the end of this week - Korean press - RIO: To cut 100 jobs at its Kennecott mine due to recent landslides - financial press - China Southern 1055.HK: Follow-up: To receive China's first Dreamliner in June - Shanghai Daily - Hon Hai 2317.TW: May be selected by Apple to assemble Macs in Texas - Taiwan press - Seven & I 3382.JP: Seven-Eleven Japan to raise its sales target for freshly brewed coffee by 40% in current FY - Nikkei News - Nippon Steel 5401.JP: Finalizing partnership plans with J-Power to build a coal-fired power plant in Ibaraki Prefecture - Nikkei News - Aozora 8304.JP: To name former Fin Min Fukuda as chairman to help boost partnerships with regional lenders to expand small/midsize business operations - Nikkei News - Obayashi 1802.JP: Awarded ¥32.9B contract to build office buildings and housing towers in the old center of Doha, Qatar - Nikkei News - PG: A.G. Lafley Rejoins Procter & Gamble as Chairman, President and CEO; Affirms Q4 and FY13 guidance - SHLD: Reports Q1 -$1.29 v -$0.51 y/y, R$8.5B v $9.3B y/y; -12.3% afterhours - MRVL: Reports Q1 $0.19 v $0.14e, R$734M v $721Me; +6.5% afterhours - CRM: Reports Q1 $0.10 v $0.11e, R$893M v $887Me; -5.9% afterhours - P: Reports Q1 -$0.10 v -$0.11e, R$125.5M v $123Me; +8.2% afterhours - GPS: Reports Q1 $0.71 v $0.68e, R$3.73B v $3.71Be; -2.2% afterhours

Will German GDP/IFO be the catalyst to take EUR/USD back above 1.3000? The EUR/USD finished the session sharply higher, mainly benefiting from a better than expected European PMI data print. It will be another busy upcoming economic session in Europe, with German GDP due out at 6:00GMT, followed by German IFO at 8:00GMT. One has to ask, if the print comes in better than expected, will it be enough to take the pair back above the critical resistance level of 1.3000(the 20dma)? According to analysts at Rabobank, “there was a modestly firmer tone, maybe a ‘less downbeat tone’ is a better description because despite improvement they remain sub-50, to the suite of eurozone PMIs. In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI gained to 49.0, up from April’s 48.1 and the Services PMI ticked up to 49.8 from 49.6. France’s Manufacturing PMI increased to 45.5 from 44.4 and the Services PMI held steady at 44.3. For the eurozone as a whole, the Manufacturing PMI gained to 47.8 from April’s 46.7.” They went on to add,“there’s no particularly strong message in these data but they are consistent with our thinking – and that of the ECB – that Europe’s economy will show some improvement as this year unfolds. Calmer financial market conditions should pay a positive dividend to the real economy over time.” The ‘risk on’ vs. ‘risk off’ sentiment of the equity market will also be something to keep in mind. It was interesting to see the EUR/USD go well bid on a day when the Nikkei dropped 7%. However, its hard to imagine this correlation continuing should US equities start a serious correction. Furthermore, some analysts believe that just because the recent EU PMI data came in better than expected, EU officials will not deviate from the dovish rhetoric which has been plentiful in recent weeks. According to Kathy Lien of Bk Asset Management, “unfortunately comments from European officials suggest that they are still very worried about the economic outlook and think that more stimulus could be necessary. According to ECB member Praet, the central bank is looking at all possibilities including reviewing the quality of asset backed securities for possible purchases. ECB member Nowotny expects the economy to contract in 2013 and inflation to decline, which suggest that he also supports new stimulus. However he went on to say that the central bank never pre-commits and their decision will in large part be affected by the new economic forecasts published in June.” According to Val Bednarik of FXStreet.com, “the EUR/USD, recovered over 100 pips from its daily low at 1.2820, but still remains capped below 1.2950 strong static resistance level. In the 4 hours chart positive momentum persists although steady gains above mentioned resistance are now required to confirm further advances towards 1.3000 key psychological level.” From a longer term technical perspective, short term moving averages are now neutral on the daily chart, while the RSI (14) remains in bearish set up. Given the fact these indicators are not confirming each other, is a sign market participants may be confused at the near term direction of the pair. Furthermore, The ADX (7) on the daily chart continues to display characteristics of non trending market, sloping sharply downward and sitting near the 18.50 area. To conclude, until these indicators start to tell a different story expect choppy trading to continue.

why you dont trade on Friday? I dont understant haizz i think friday is good day take profit because non farm release on friday

Forex Gap Strategy — is an interesting trading system that utilizes one of the most disturbing phenomena of the Forex market — a weekly gap between the last Friday's close price and the current Monday's open price. The gap itself takes its origin in the fact that the interbank currency market continues to react on the fundamental news during the weekend, opening on Monday at the level with the most liquidity. The offered strategy is based on the assumption that the gap is a result of speculations and the excess volatility, thus a position in the opposite direction should probably become profitable after a few days. How to Trade? Select a currency pair with a relatively high level of volatility. I recommend GBP/JPY as it showed the best results during my tests. But other JPY-based pairs should work too. By the way, it's a good strategy to use on all major currency pairs at the same time. When a new week starts look if there is a gap. A gap should be at least 5 times the average spread for the pair. Otherwise it can't be considered a real signal. If Monday's (or late Sunday's if you trade from North or South America) open is below the Friday's (or early Saturday if you trade from Oceania or Eastern Asia) close the gap is negative and you should open a Long position. If Monday's open is above the Friday's close the gap is positive and you should open a Short position. Don't set a stop-loss or a take-profit level (it's a rare occasion but stop-loss isn't recommended in this strategy). Right before the end of the weekly trading session (e.g., 5 minutes before the end) you need to close the position. You can see GBP/JPY pair's last 7 weeks (as of May 24, 2010) and all of them have gaps. 6 out of 7 gaps give correct signals that result in a lot of profit. The last gap gives a wrong signal and yields a medium loss. The average spread for GBP/JPY was 3 pips during the example period and all gaps were much wider than 15 pips, making them all qualifying signals. The net total profit was 1,612 pips in 7 weeks — not that bad.

his indicator takes two moving averages, calculates their RSI (Relative Strength Index) and then also adds a moving average of the calculated RSI. These two lines now can accurately signal the trend changes. They are shown in the separate window where they change from 0 to 100. Additional histogram indicator is shown for quick reference below the lines. On the picture the bold blue line is RSI of the moving averages, the thin violet line is its moving average. RSI above MA and RSI above level 50 is a signal of a bullish trend. RSI below MA and RSI below level 50 is a signal of a bearish trend. One can also buy when the RSI breaks level 20 from below and sell when RSI breaks level 80 from above, but those are weaker signals. Histogram provides quick reference. Green lines signal BUY, red signal SELL, magenta mean overbought, blue mean oversold. RSIOMA_v2.zip

my opion: minimun: 300$ for future market

you can trade currency with LR bank ^ ^ make profit spot market

Hedge fund said: Despite 'Promises', Japanese Market Chaos Continues UPDATE 1: Japanese stocks turned negative (NKY -600pts from highs, -1.5% on day; and TOPIX down over 4% from highs); Japanese banks -11% from yesterday highs; S&P futures down 10 points from after-hours highs... UPDATE 2: *KURODA WANTS TO AVOID INCREASING VOLATILITY IN BOND MARKET (yeah thanks... as useful as saying "we all want to avoid syphilis") For the second day in a row, and in spite of comments from Abe and Kuroda on communicating with the market (as Kuroda says BoJ Monetary easing sufficient), Japanese capital markets are out of control. JPY, after weakening 150 pips from early this morning and breaking back over 102.50 has just given 100 pips back in matter of minutes and is now trading stronger vs the USD on the Japanese session. Japanese stocks have cliff-dived with the NKY dropping 400 points in minutes and TOPIX over 1.5%. JGB futures (prices not yields) have surged back higher to trade unchanged on the day as the correlation we noted earlier - and believe is now critical - has held between an out of control bond market and any further sustainable gains in stocks. This is not good... as if the JPY carry trade implodes (driven quite simply by a total lack of reward-to-risk given the volatility in the carry currency and loan rates themselves) then what happens to all the levered longs in European peripheral bonds and any number of the 'most-shorted' companies in the US... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-24/despite-promises-japanese-market-chaos-continues

i choice hegh fund ^ ^ hypip and forex very dangerous so you should choice hegh fund of cource you should read book about analysis hegh fund

Kuroda Struggles With Communication as Japan Rates Rise: Economy Haruhiko Kuroda may need to talk his way out of a paradox he helped create. Installed as Bank of Japan chief in March, Kuroda aims to unlock borrowing and spending by lifting inflation expectations and wages after 15 years of deflation. Market volatility partly triggered by the BOJ’s record bond-buying now threatens to sap business and consumer confidence and weaken the campaign to reflate the world’s third-biggest economy. Kuroda today said he’ll keep strengthening communication with the market. At a press briefing on May 22, Kuroda said that gains in yields could be expected as the economy improved, after saying previously that the central bank aimed to lower interest rates. The BOJ pumped 2 trillion yen ($19.4 billion) into the financial system yesterday as bond yields rose, its second such market-calming infusion this month. The move didn’t avert the biggest stock slump in two years. “Kuroda must be feeling the difficulty of communications with the market,” Masayuki Kichikawa, chief Japan economist at Bank of America Corp. in Tokyo, said yesterday. Investors wanted “stronger comments from the BOJ on not allowing yields to rise and more specifics on how the BOJ will address volatility in the bond market. Kuroda will have to tone up his rhetoric. This is the hardest part of unprecedented massive easing. You can’t only think about inflation and the economy. You have to take care of the massive bond market.” Stock Tumble The Topix index of shares rose 2.7 percent as of 12:44 p.m. local time, after a 6.9 percent slump yesterday that was the biggest decline since the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Ten-year bond yields were at 0.847 percent after yesterday touching a one-year high of 1 percent. The yen weakened 0.2 percent against the dollar to 102.23. On May 22, Kuroda said the BOJ wanted to avoid “excessive volatility” in the debt market. Speaking at a conference in Tokyo today, he reiterated that sentiment, and said he wants to stabilize bond trading with flexible BOJ operations. He also said the central bank has announced sufficient monetary easing. “Such double talk makes us feel that Mr. Kuroda does not really understand what he is doing,” said Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo, formerly of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “If he thought that interest rates would rise if his policy succeeds, why did he say his policy would lower interest rates?” Economy Minister Akira Amari yesterday warned against panic after the share market decline and a jump in the yen, saying that the economy is “recovering soundly.” Even after the stock sell-off, the Topix, Japan’s broadest share measure, remained up 38 percent for the year. source: Bloomberg.com

inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. Economists generally agree that high rates of inflation and hyperinflation are caused by an excessive growth of the money supply. Views on which factors determine low to moderate rates of inflation are more varied. Low or moderate inflation may be attributed to fluctuations in real demand for goods and services, or changes in available supplies such as during scarcities, as well as to changes in the velocity of money supply measures; in particular the MZM ("Money Zero Maturity") supply velocity. However, the consensus view is that a long sustained period of inflation is caused by money supply growing faster than the rate of economic growth. The inflation rate is widely calculated by calculating the movement or change in a price index, usually the consumer price index.The consumer price index measures movements in prices of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by a "typical consumer". The inflation rate is the percentage rate of change of a price index over time. The Retail Prices Index is also a measure of inflation that is commonly used in the United Kingdom. It is broader than the CPI and contains a larger basket of goods and services. Other widely used price indices for calculating price inflation include the following: Producer price indices (PPIs) which measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. This differs from the CPI in that price subsidization, profits, and taxes may cause the amount received by the producer to differ from what the consumer paid. There is also typically a delay between an increase in the PPI and any eventual increase in the CPI. Producer price index measures the pressure being put on producers by the costs of their raw materials. This could be "passed on" to consumers, or it could be absorbed by profits, or offset by increasing productivity. In India and the United States, an earlier version of the PPI was called the Wholesale Price Index. Commodity price indices, which measure the price of a selection of commodities. In the present commodity price indices are weighted by the relative importance of the components to the "all in" cost of an employee. Core price indices: because food and oil prices can change quickly due to changes in supply and demand conditions in the food and oil markets, it can be difficult to detect the long run trend in price levels when those prices are included. Therefore most statistical agencies also report a measure of 'core inflation', which removes the most volatile components (such as food and oil) from a broad price index like the CPI. Because core inflation is less affected by short run supply and demand conditions in specific markets, central banks rely on it to better measure the inflationary impact of current monetary policy.

A pivot point is a price level of significance in technical analysis of a financial market that is used by traders as a predictive indicator of market movement. A pivot point is calculated as an average of significant prices (high, low, close) from the performance of a market in the prior trading period. If the market in the following period trades above the pivot point it is usually evaluated as a bullish sentiment, whereas trading below the pivot point is seen as bearish. Calculation Several methods exist for calculating the pivot point (P) of a market. Most commonly, it is the arithmetic average of the high (H), low (L), and closing (C) prices of the market in the prior trading period: P = (H + L + C) / 3. Sometimes, the average also includes the previous period's or the current period's opening price (O): P = (O + H + L + C) / 4. In other cases, traders like to emphasize the closing price, P = (H + L + C + C) / 4, or the current periods opening price, P = (H + L + O + O) / 4. he first and most significant level of support (S1) and resistance (R1) is obtained by recognition of the upper and the lower halves of the prior trading range, defined by the trading above the pivot point (H − P), and below it (P − L). The first resistance on the up-side of the market is given by the lower width of prior trading added to the pivot point price and the first support on the down-side is the width of the upper part of the prior trading range below the pivot point. R1 = P + (P − L) = 2×P − L S1 = P − (H − P) = 2×P − H Thus, these levels may simply be calculated by subtracting the previous low (L) and high (H) price, respectively, from twice the pivot point value: The second set of resistance (R2) and support (S2) levels are above and below, respectively, the first set. They are simply determined from the full width of the prior trading range (H − L), added to and subtracted from the pivot point, respectively: R2 = P + (H − L) S2 = P − (H − L) Commonly a third set is also calculated, again representing another higher resistance level (R3) and a yet lower support level (S3). The method of the second set is continued by doubling the range added and subtracted from the pivot point: R3 = H + 2×(P − L) S3 = L − 2×(H − P) This concept is sometimes, albeit rarely, extended to a fourth set in which the tripled value of the trading range is used in the calculation. Qualitatively, the second and higher support and resistance levels are always located symmetrically around the pivot point, whereas this is not the case for the first levels, unless the pivot point happens to divide the prior trading range exactly in half. The pivot point itself represents a level of highest resistance or support, depending on the overall market condition. If the market is directionless (undecided), prices may fluctuate greatly around this level until a price breakout develops. Trading above or below the pivot point indicates the overall market sentiment. It is a leading indicator providing advanced signaling of potentially new market highs or lows within a given time frame. The support and resistance levels calculated from the pivot point and the previous market width may be used as exit points of trades, but are rarely used as entry signals

What is the Martingale Strategy? Popularized in the 18th century, the martingale was introduced by a French mathematician by the name of Paul Pierre Levy. The martingale was originally a type of betting style that was based on the premise of "doubling down." Interestingly enough, a lot of the work done on the martingale was done by an American mathematician named Joseph Leo Doob, who sought to disprove the possibility of a 100% profitable betting strategy. The mechanics of the system naturally involve an initial bet, however, each time the bet becomes a loser, the wager is doubled such that, given enough time, one winning trade will make up all of the previous losses. The introduction of the 0 and 00 on the roulette wheel was used to break the mechanics of the martingale, by giving the game more than two possible outcomes other than the odd versus even, or red versus black. This made the long-run profit expectancy of using the martingale in roulette negative, and thus destroyed any incentive for using it. To understand the basics behind the martingale strategy, let's take a look at a simple example. Suppose that we had a coin and engaged in a betting game of either head or tails with a starting wager of $1. There is an equal probability that the coin will land on head or tails and each flip is independent, meaning that the previous flip does not impact the outcome of the next flip. As long as you stick with the same directional view each time, you would eventually, given an infinite amount of money, see the coin land on heads and regain all of your losses, plus $1. The strategy is based on the premise that only one trade is needed to turn your account around. Examples Assume that you have a total of $10 to wager, starting with a first wager of $1. You bet on heads, the coin flips that way and you win $1, bringing your equity up to $11. Each time you are successful, you keep on betting the same $1 until you lose. The next flip is a loser and you bring your account equity back to $10. On the next bet, you wager $2 in the hope that if the coin lands on heads, you will recoup your previous losses and bring your net profit and loss to zero. Unfortunately, it lands on tails again and you lose another $2, bringing your total equity down to $8. So, according to martingale strategy, on the next bet you wager double the prior amount to $4. Thankfully, you hit a winner and gain $4, bringing your total equity back up to $12. As you can see, all you needed was one winner to get back all of your previous losses. However, let's consider what happens when you hit a losing streak: Once again, you have $10 to wager, with a starting bet of $1. In this scenario, you immediately lose on the first bet and bring your balance down $9. You double your bet on the next wager, lose again and end up with $7. On the third bet, your wager is up to $4 and your losing streak continues, bringing you down to $3. You do not have enough money to double down and the best you can do is bet it all. If you lose, you are down to zero and even if you win, you are still far from your initial $10 starting capital.

1.COT data : The report is issued on Thursday evenings by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. What it does is break down the amount of buying and selling done by three groups: Commercials, Large Traders, and Small Traders. In other words, you really can find out each week exactly what the big guys have been doing in the marketplace... but it's not quite that easy. Let me explain why. The largest powers in the marketplace are the Commercials. These are the large users and producers of the commodity. They do not use the commodity markets to speculate or directly make money in the markets. They are producers and users of the commodity, so they sell forward or hedge their production/demand. They use the markets for selling and delivery, not speculating. The Large Traders are the second most dominant figure in the report. These are not quite what you think. They're not just large traders like me. They are nowadays, for the most part, commodity funds that are trying to speculate directly in the marker Finally, there are the small traders, probably people like you… people who are trading in smaller amounts; the average trader 2.Tracking Banks' FX Predictions _ wall street journal this is wall streets survey ,bank vote currency