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GBP/USD: consolidation going to be continued

10/12/2016

 

12-10-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

We’ve got a downward consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2089 in the short term. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

 

12-10-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

There’s a local “Double Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. However, if we see a pullback from the nearest Moving Average, bears are likely going to move on. So, we should keep an eye on the nearest support line as an intraday target. 

 

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AUD/USD: return to the Cloud

10/12/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7550, 0.7520; resistance – 0.7590.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 0.7590; SL — 0.7610; TP1 — 0.7550; TP2 — 0.7520.

 

Reason: a strong support near 0.7600; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

 

03-audusdh4(34).png

 

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USD/JPY: the Bulls still active

10/12/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 103.40/50; resistance – 104.00.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 103.50; SL — 103.30; TP1 — 104.00; TP2 — 104.60.

 

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a new gold cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are leave the overbought zone.

 

04-usdjpyh4(40).png

 

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EUR/USD: bears broke "Triangle"]

10/12/2016

 

Image20161012100928001.png

 

The last triangle in wave (Y) has been broken, so there’s a bearish impulse, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. It’s likely that wave (iii) is going to be ended soon, so there’s an opportunity to see wave (iv) in the short term. However, bulls will probably try to deliver wave (v) of afterwards, so we should keep an eye on 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) as a possible intraday target.

 

Image20161012100928002.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, bears are developing an impulse in wave (iii). If we see a pullback from 1/8 MM Level, bulls are going to deliver wave (iv). Therefore, 3/8 MM Level could act as a resistance soon.

 

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FOMC minutes: why to watch and how to trade EUR/USD

10/12/20016

 

Today we will get a chance to get a summary of discussions from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. It will give the market a better understanding of where Fed sentiment stands and whether there will be a rate hike or not. At the last meeting held in September three of the FOMC’s 10 voting members dissented and opposed the final statement (the majority of central bank officials voted for keeping the Fed’s interest rate unchanged). After September’s meeting many Fed’s members in their speeches ahead of today’s minutes meeting reported that they are not against the rate hikes if the data releases confirm the revival of the US economy.

 

Most watchers believe that there will be a rate hike in December once the storm after US presidential elections dies down. That’s why we see the US dollar is appreciating against other currencies in the course of last trading sessions.

 

Meanwhile, we decided to remind you of the efficient SEB’s strategy on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.

 

If EUR/USD rises in the next 3 hours after the FOMC minutes release, the specialists will open long positions, excessively buying the pair, and close it in 24 hours. Alternatively, if EUR/USD declines in 3 hours after the release, sell the pair and hold position for 24 hours.

 

Last time in August this strategy performed will. The longs on the EUR/USD pair were opened at 1.1286; the signal was closed 1.1354 after 24 hours and the net profit accounted for 68 pips.

 

2CBABCDF00000578-3248441-image-a-9_14431

 

"Nooo...I don't want to raise interest rate..."

 

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Indians go to the aid of the gold prices

10/12/2016

 

diwali-banner-detail.jpg

 

Gold is a tangible, real asset, that’s why it is more trusted than esoteric financial instrument that haven’t got an inherent value. Nowhere more so than in the East it’s understood. In the upcoming week we may expect the demand for physical gold in India to pick up. It will support the gold prices and might provide a boost for a further upsurge.

 

India is the world’s biggest consumer of the yellow precious metal. The demand for gold at this period of year usually gears up because of the rising number of weddings and festivals such as Diwali and Dussehra, when buying gold is considered to be auspicious and prosperous.   

 

Last week we saw that gold slumped significantly as the dollar rose on the speculations of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting. On last Friday, however, the precious metal managed to stabilize and now it is going through the period of recovery hovering around the $1260 level located against the 200-day MA. 

 

XAUUSDDaily(2).png

 

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Gambit strategy: balance of risk and gain

10/12/2016

 

kak-vyigrat-v-shakhmaty1-750x410(1).jpg

 

Gambit trading strategy is a bold attempt to gain maximum profit while not losing sight of risk. But I should warn you, that to use it you should school yourself to patience, because for all conditions to meet you might need lots of time. The good thing is that this strategy worth it; you can get big profits from waiting for the right moment to come without taking additional risks.

 

The strategy was designed by Walter T. Downs, a dedicated chess-player and mathematician, for calm and lucrative trading on D1 time interval. But it turned out that it works on h4 timeframe as well. With this strategy you need only one indicator to receive signals to enter the market – Bollinger bands.

 

If there is a bullish trend – you should BUY on rollbacks from the upper Bollinger line. If there is a bearish trend - SELL on the rebounds from the lower line.

 

SELL signal

 

The minimum and maximum of the "signal" candles (2) should be located above the minimum and the maximum of the previous candles (1).

 

Closing price of the signal candle should be in the lower part of the candle’s range.

 

Central Bollinger line should be moving downward for at least 10 consecutive days.

 

If all these conditions are met, at the opening of the third candle followed by the "signal" candle (3) we can open shorts. Stop Loss should be set slightly above the maximum of the "signal" candle (2). On the fourth day after we opened our position, we should place Stop Loss at the breakeven point (the opening point). The deal should be closed when the price crosses the lower green Bollinger line.

 

gambit_new(1).png

 

BUY signal

 

Minimum and maximum of the "signal" candle should be located below the minimum and maximum of the previous candle.

 

The "signal" candle should be closed above the middle level of the entire range of the candle and above the center Bollinger line.

 

Central Bollinger line should rise in the course of 10 consecutive days.

 

If all these conditions are met, we enter the market long at the opening of the next candle followed by the "signal" candle. Stop Loss should be placed below the minimum of the "signal" candle. On the fourth day after we opened our position, Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point (the opening point). We should close the deal when the price crosses the upper green Bollinger line. 

 

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Key option levels for Wednesday, October 12th

10/12/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

eurusd(3).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 12 944 ? + 31 713 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1145; 1.1187; 1.1214; 1.1246

Closest support levels 1.1016; 1.0993; 1.0966; 1.0935 (critical)

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1016, with target points at 1.0993 and 1.0966

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1145 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1187 and 1.1214

 

GBP/USD

 

gbpusd(3).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 5 578 ? + 4 297 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.2277; 1.2297; 1.2319; 1.2344

Closest support levels 1.2140; 1.2119; 1.2102; 1.2078

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2277, with the target points at 1.2297 and 1.2319

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2140 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2119 and 1.2102

 

USD/JPY

 

usdjpy(3).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 698 ? + 2 393 ?

Closest resistance levels 103.72; 104.06; 104.29; 104.56

Closest support levels 102.70; 102.51; 102.29; 102.02

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.72, with the target points at 104.06 and 104.29

Alternative scenario Moving below 102.70 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.51 and  102.29

 

 EUR JPY GBP USD

 

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Can pound sustain recovery?

10/12/2016

 

GBP/USD recovered on Wednesday from the levels below 1.2100 gaining more than 1% during the day. Sterling strengthened as British Prime Minister Theresa May accepted that the Parliament should be allowed to vote on her Brexit plan. Asa a result, concerns about the prospect of “hard Brexit” and its negative impact on the nation’s economy have eased and some GBP shorts were covered.

 

As far as we can judge, May’s move to reduce the worries can really mean much for the pound providing the currency with support in the medium term. If the Parliament thinks that May took a too hard position, it can debate her actions and make her soften approach to negotiations with the EU. This should keep the country’s departure from the European Union less economically painful.

 

At the same time, investors will likely remain cautious about the pound after its rapid decline seen last week. Moving averages at H1 are still declining pointing at the downtrend with resistance line around 1.2420. Next resistance is at 1.2465 (weekly pivot). Confidence to the sterling will restore only if it returns to the pre-selloff levels above 1.2800, and it’s a big distance for the bulls to get over.

 

Another thing a trader has to take into account is the US side of things. FOMC September meeting minutes are due at 18:00 GMT. If the document contains clues that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates in December, the market players may use the pound’s recent recovery to enter new shorts. Note that the currency is no longer oversold. 

 

GBPUSDDaily(18).png

 

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EUR/USD: bears broke through "Window"

10/12/2016

 

1210eurusdh4.png

 

The price has been falling down since a “Harami” was formed at the local high. However, the pair has achieved a support line. So, if any bullish pattern arrives, there’ll be opportunity to have an upward correction in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, we don’t have any reversal pattern, so bears will probably try to reach the nearest support.

 

1210eurusdh1.png

 

The closest “Window” acted as a resistance, but there isn’t any bullish pattern. So, the price is likely going to test the “Window” during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

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USD/JPY: bulls going to deliver new high

10/12/2016

 

1210usdjpyH4.png

 

There’s a support by the 13 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Hammer” on this line. If it confirms, bulls are likely going to deliver a new high. However, if we see a pullback from the upper “Window”, there’ll be a chance to have a local downward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a support by the 34 Moving Average. Meanwhile, bulls will probably try to test the 55 Moving Average soon.

 

1210usdjpyH1.png

 

We’ve got a “Harami” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term, so we can have a new high during the day.

 

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EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse

10/12/2016

 

EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse

Next sell target -1.4450

EUR/AUD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3 – which started previously – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.5100, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from May. The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the intermediate impulse wave © – increasing the probability of further losses for this currency pair.

 

EUR/AUD is expected to fall further toward the next strong support level 1.4450 (which reversed the previous sharp downward waves (A) and 1 in April and August respectively). The pair is likely to correct up after reaching the support level 1.4450.

 

EURAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Oct-12_1507_

 

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EUR/USD broke support zone

10/12/2016

 

EUR/USD broke support zone

Next sell target 1.0950

EUR/USD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the impulse wave 3 from August. The pair earlier broke through the support zone lying between the strong support level 1.1150 (which has been reversing the price form August) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from July.

 

The breakout of the aforementioned support zone intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair. EUR/USD is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0950 (which previously reversed the price sharply in June and July).

 

EURUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Oct-12_1506_

 

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USD/CAD: loonie moves up

10/13/2016

 

On the USD/CAD daily chart, quotes came closer to the important resistance line at 1.3306 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last long downward wave). If this resistance line is broken out, the quotes will continue their rally towards targets 200% and 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern and "Crab" pattern (1,358-1,36).

 

Screenshot_2016_10_13_08_29_46.png

 

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, successful test of the resistance line at 1.3295 will create the prerequisites for the continuation of the quotes' rally in the direction of the upper limit of the upward trade channel (1.3415). There is also the target 161.8% in the "Three Indians" pattern.

 

Screenshot_2016_10_13_08_30_02.png

 

Recommendation: BUY 1,3295 SL 1,324 TP1 1,3415 TP2 1,358 TP3 1,36

 

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GBP/USD: pound reached the Rubicon

10/13/2016

 

On the GBP/USD daily chart, pound tries to consolidate. Targets in the AB = CD and "Deep-sea crab" patterns help us to indicate the consolidation area at 1,2109-1,2317. If quotes go beyond these margins, there might be either a correction or restoration of the downward trend towards the convergence zone located at 1,1858-1,1884 levels.

 

Screenshot_2016_10_13_08_24_00.png

 

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the descending triangle has been formed. Breakout of its lower boundary at 1.21 might lead to quotes' fall towards the convergence zone that we defined on the daily chart. Successful test of the resistance line at 1.2315 may turn into correction at the 1,239 and 1,248 levels.

 

Screenshot_2016_10_13_08_24_15.png

 

Recommendations:

 

BUY 1,2315 SL 1,2260 TP1 1,239 TP2 1,248

 

SELL 1,21 SL 1,2155 TP1 1,1885 TP2 1,186

 

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AUD/USD: falling to the 3-W lows

10/13/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7520, 0.7490; resistance – 0.7560, 0.7590.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7490/95; SL — 0.7470; TP1 — 0.7560; TP2 — 0.7590.

 

Reason: a strong support near 0.7490; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span B.

 

03-audusdh4(35).png

 

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USD/JPY: the Bulls are realized its targets

10/13/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 103.70; resistance – 104.20, 104.60, 105.20.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 103.80; SL — 103.60; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20.

 

Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a gold cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices can found the support on the Kijun-sen or Cloud.

 

04-usdjpyh4(41).png

 

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Morning brief October 13, 2016

10/13/2016

 

The main trigger of the session was the release of the FOMC Minutes that indicated that a growing number of committee members are pulling in the direction of hiking (the FOMC voted 7-3 to hold off a rate hike at Sept. meeting). It seems that the Chair Janet Yellen’s call weighted on the FOMC’s intention to raise rate. She stressed that August steadiness in labor force participation still had room to increase and suggested to wait for more positive signals to confirm the job market recovery. The Fed’s hesitation on when to rise rates and increase in number of the UK new buyer enquiries gave a tiny support to pound which lifted itself to 9 – 10 odd points. Euro and franc remained in a relatively small ranges.

 

The major focus of the latest Asian session was September trade data from China. It showed reduction of export casting a renewed shadow over global growth prospects. The market response was a bit delayed, but when EUR/USD surged adding 30 points from its session low, while AUD/USD dropped having posted 3-month lows at 0.7520. NZD will unlikely show us any strength today; in the course of the last session it rose at about 20 points. USD/JPY fell once the release from China has been published. We might see more gains for the yen and other safe-haven assets with the gloomy sentiments over the future of the global economy.

 

Gold is gaining momentum from its recent downfall; it lifted itself up to the $1255.5 and now continues to pave the way to the new resistance line at $1262,51 near the 200-day MA.

 

Oil prices experienced a 1% drop overnight after OPEC members reported its output hit an 8-year high in September. This announcement offset optimism over the group's pledge to restrict output.

 

The economic calendar for today will unlikely bring us lots of shake things. There will be US unemployment claims which could reach 252,000 this week, according to the forecasts (an indicator of the overall economic health of the country as consumer spending is affected by labor-market conditions). And also we recommend you to keep an eye on the US crude oil inventories.

 

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EUR/USD: support waiting for bears

10/13/2016

 

13-10-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

The price has been declining since Monday. Bears faced a support at 1.1011, so there’s a local consolidation in progress. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0978 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

 

13-10-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place under a resistance at 1.1032. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1000 – 1.0978 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.1045 – 1.1069.

 

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GBP/USD: price going to test support once again

10/13/2016

 

13-10-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

We’ve got a downward consolidation on the four-hours chart. In this case, the price is likely going to get a support at 1.2089 shortly. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a correction towards the nearest resistance at 1.2476.

 

13-10-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

The price has been moving in a range of the current flat. Nevertheless, it’s likely that the pair is going to reach a support at 1.2089 during the day. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will have a chance to deliver a correction in the direction of the 89 Moving Average.

 

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EUR/USD: wave (iv) coming soon

10/13/2016

 


 

We’ve got a wedge in wave (i), which led to a decline in wave (iii). However, the current bearish impulse is likely going to end soon. So, if a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction, which could be wave (iv).

 

Image20161013102336002.png

 

There’s a possible diagonal triangle, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Therefore, if we see a pullback from 0/8 MM Level, then bulls will probably try to set up a correction. The main intraday target for wave (iv) is 2/8 MM Level.

 

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Key option levels for Thursday, October 13th

10/13/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

eurusd(4).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest - 66 ? + 10 325 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1086; 1.1118; 1.1141; 1.1167

Closest support levels 1.1007; 1.0974; 1.0950; 1.0922

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1007, with target points at 1.0974 and 1.0950

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1086 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1118 and 1.1141

 

USD/JPY

 

usdjpy(4).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 3 508 ? + 1 944 ?

Closest resistance levels 104.38; 104.78 (61?); 104.99; 105.23

Closest support levels 103.48; 103.27; 103.02; 102.73

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 104.38, with the target points at 104.78 and 104.99

Alternative scenario Moving below 103.48 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 103.27 and  103.02

 

USD/CAD

 

usdcad(3).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 946 ? + 802 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3294; 1.3324; 1.3367; 1.3419

Closest support levels 1.3208; 1.3189; 1.3163; 1.3127

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3294, with the target points at 1.3324 and 1.3367

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3208 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3189 and 1.3163

 

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USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone

10/13/2016

 

USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone

Next sell target - 104.30

USD/JPY today reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 104.30 (which also earlier reversed the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in September, as can be seen from the daily USD/JPY chart below), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous primary ABC correction ? from July.

 

With the daily Stochastic indicator still moving in the overbought zone - USD/JPY is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support 103.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 104.30.

 

USDJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Oct-13_1235_

 

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Views of the major banks on the FOMC minutes

10/13/2016

 

clock-melting-clocks.jpg

 

Salvador Dali "The Persistence of Memory"  FOMC minutes revealed the persistence of the US interest rate

 

Yesterday we finally got the FOMC minutes and found out what went wrong in September, why Fed’s senior officials decided to keep the present interest rate on hold. The minutes added fuel to expectations for near-term hike. But we shouldn’t be too excited, since the release has also revealed a great share of disagreement among the FOMC members. Several officials see a hike as appropriate to present situation, while others are rather skeptical of the US economy revival. The later ones preferred to wait for additional evidences of improvement. So, will “doves” change their stance in the upcoming meeting? It’s still unclear, although we must admit that hawkish sentiments persist. Let’s see what major banks think about yesterday’s FOMC minutes.

 

According to Mattias Bruer and Royce Mendes, the rate should rise relatively soon; and this was confirmed by several FOMC members, although there is a healthy amount of disagreement about the extent of remaining slack in the US economy.

 

Danske Bank noted that we are dealing with a very divided FOMC and that “hawks” and “doves” will fight to the death. Hawks believe that the US economy can overheat if employment rate increases over the past six years. In addition, the low rates create financial instability. Doves think that it’s too soon to raise hike as core inflation still runs below 2% and there are no signs of inflation looming on the horizon. Danske decided to stick its non-consensus view that the Fed will stay on hold once again for the rest of the year. The combination of weak GDP data over the last quarters still weights on the labor market and wage growth. The low inflation expectations and core inflation do not exceed the Fed’s target, therefore, the Fed may afford itself not to change its interest rate. The bank believes that the Presidential election won’t allow FOMC members to raise rates. Danske suggests to wait until Friday when we get retail sales data and Fed Chair Yellen’s speech. If retail sales are weak and if Yellen sounds dovish at her press conference, the rate hike will unlikely be a reality.

 

Barclays admits that the FOMC revealed a discord within committee on various issues. These divisions could not dissipate at the next meetings which means that a rate hike in December is not a closed issue. FOMC members saw that the statistical data changed little since their September meeting, although there were considerable labor market developments, consumer sentiment has risen, labor market condition has improved appreciably this year. But whether it will be enough to kick the committee into action is still not clear.   

 

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EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as resistance

10/13/2016

 

1310eurusdh4.png

 

There’s a bearish rally on the way, but we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern at the last low. So, the price is likely going to reach the nearest resistance line in the short term. If a pullback from this level be on the table, there’ll be an opportunity to have another low. As we can see on the Daily chart, here isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, it’s likely to have one more test of the closest support line.

 

1310eurusdh1.png

 

The last “Three Methods” pattern led to a couple of new highs, but there’s an “Engulfing” pattern. If it confirms, the price is likely going to reach the nearest  “Window”, which could act as a resistance. If we see a pullback from this “Window”, there’ll be a chance to have a new low shortly.

 

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