riki143 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 USD/JPY: bearish "Engulfing" arrived 10/3/2016 There’s a support by the nearest Moving Averages. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the last high, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the closest support line in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami” pattern, which has been strongly confirmed, so bulls will have a chance to deliver a new local high. We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “High Wave” patterns on the one-hour chart. However, there’s a bearish “Engulfing” pattern, which points to a possibility to see a local downward correction. In this case bears will probably try to break the nearest Moving Averages soon. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10726 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 USD/JPY near-term forecasts 10/3/2016 Since June the market is trying to break the resistance line at 100 level. There were at least four attempts to do so, but all in vain. It seems that this shield is unpierceable. What’s more surprising is that all these failures to break the support happened on the back of recent disappointments regarding the outcome of long-awaited central bank meetings, where the Fed’s indecision to hike the interest rates or BoJ’s inventive monetary policy pressured the USD/JPY downwards. Who knows, maybe the imminent US elections will start the ball rolling. Meanwhile, we hardly can expect any changes from the USD/JPY pair, at least, during further two weeks. USD/JPY will continue consolidating, then, there should be a decisive change of the trend. It’s more than likely that the pair will rise in near-term. From recent data releases we can conclude that Japan’s economy doesn’t perform really well. Consumer spending numbers we had a chance to observe declined, while inflation indicators remained in negative territory. The Tankan indices published on Sunday, did not show us any improvements in manufacturing sector. On contrary, the US statistics brings us good news: consumer confidence came out at the highest since 2007, the production indices have increase since summer, final GDP was slightly better than it had been expected. For any further confirmation of our forecast, let’s look at the bets of some big stakeholders. Société Générale is in line with our bullish expectation; it is long USD/JPY from 100.30. The bank explains its position by the BoJ’s decision to target 10-year JGB yields at about zero, adding the yield curve control to its present Quantitative and Qualitative easing. Morgan Stanley as its colleagues doesn’t expect the yen to rise in the nearest future. According to its recent forecast, the steady 100 and 102.50 levels will be key to see which way USD/JPY decides to go further. Goldman Sacks gives us more clues on the further USD/JPY movement. It believes that USD/JPY may reach 108, 110 and 115 marks in 3-, 60- and 12-months, respectively. It finds the BoJ’s decision to shift to yield targeting is clear-sighted; the market is willing to punish the BoJ’s incrementalism; any slack, any sign that the BoJ has given up on its easing will result in USD/JPY move below 100, threatening to bring to naught all progress under Kuroda’s rule. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10727 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 EUR/USD: wave E going to move on 10/3/2016 There’s wave (Y), which is taking form of a triangle. It’s likely that wave E is going to develop a double zigzag. If we see a pullback from 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible zigzag in wave [y] of E. Therefore, wave ( is likely going to end soon. If a pullback from 7/8 MM Level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver wave © of [y]. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10728 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 USD/JPY: beware of an unexpected trigger 10/3/2016 As we already know, the Bank of Japan decided not to adopt additional easing at its last policy meeting. It managed to dodge from its proverbial interest rate cuts this time. Citi believes that BoJ by not doing so passed the policy baton to the Ministry of Finance. If USD/JPY breaks 100, the MoF will have to intervene. Of course, the Japanese government will try to avoid doing so ahead of the US presidential elections striving not to deteriorate the US-Japan relations. But December visit by Russian President V. Putin and expected improvement in Japan-Russian relations (dispute over Kuril Islands is a main hurdle that weighted on the relations between two countries) make Shinzo Abe fearless. If two leaders manage to negotiate this issue, it may result in the Yen’s appreciation. A fall of the pair to 95 will result in the increase of the demand for hedging the past foreign investments by Japanese investors, this, in turn, will cause a further USD/JPY drop. The monetary authorities will unlikely accept such JPY strengthening. Therefore, they will have to intervene. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10729 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 EUR/GBP & UK Construction PMI: New historical lows across the board? 10/4/2016 Headlines from UK PM Theresa May during the weekend added pressure on the Sterling and Monday's session helped to push the pair to test post-Brexit lows, as the UK PM spoke about timing on when the Brexit process will start in the country. Today at 08:30 GMT will be published the Construction PMI in the United Kingdom and analysts are waiting for a slight decline from 49.2 to 49.0 in the September's reading. Our technical analysis for EUR/GBP at H4 chart is very bullish, added to the fact that EUR is strengthening across the board and now it's testing the resistance level of 0.8740, thanks, of course, to the Sterling's weakness. If the pair manages to break the resistance level of 0.8740 (a weaker than expected number), we can see a rally towards the 0.8812 level. However, if EUR/GBP does a pullback at the current stage, then it could test the 0.8661 level, which is close to the 50 SMA. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10730 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 USD/CHF: franc is ready to leave the triangle 10/4/2016 On the USD/CHF daily chart, «bulls» are testing resistance at 0,974-0,975. If they succeed, it will allow them to prepare an attack for the upper boundary of a descending triangle. Breakout of the diagonal resistance will open the way to the target of the "Shark" pattern at 88.6%. It is located near the 0.9865 mark. On the USD/CHF hourly chart, successful test of the upper boundary of the descending trade channel should be confirmed by the resistance breakout at 0,975 (61.8% Fibonacci of XA wave). If the "bulls" take control of the situation, they will fulfull the target of the "Shark" inverted pattern at 113% (near the 0.984 mark). Recommendation: BUY 0,975 SL 0,9695 TP1 0,984 TP2 0,9865. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10731 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 NZD/USD: bears lost the lead 10/4/2016 On the NZD/USD daily chart, the quotes didn't fall below the support line at 0,7225. The realization of the "Head and shoulders" and "Shark" patterns has been postponed. A successful test of the peak of the right shoulder will lead to the restoration of the upward trend. On the NZD/USD hourly chart, to move further the "bulls" will have to activate the Shark pattern. For this to happen, they will need to test a resistance line at 0.736 (23.6% Fibonacci of the last upward wave). Once it is tested successfully, the kiwi might head to the upper boundary of the rising trade channel. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10732 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 EUR/USD: "Triple Top" stopped bulls 10/4/2016 The price is moving up and down under the downtrend line. In this case, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1181 – 1.1165 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement. The last consolidation was finally ended up by yesterday’s bearish rally. So, the price is likely going to get a support at 1.1181 – 1.1168 during the day. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.1196 – 1.1212. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10734 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 GBP/USD: bears going to reach support 10/4/2016 Yesterday a “Breakaway Gap” was formed, so the price faced a support at 1.2849, which led to a local consolidation. Therefore, it’s likely that the market is going to get a resistance at 1.2883 – 1.2911 in the short term. However, bears are probably going to break the last low afterwards. The price found a support at 1.2839, so we’ve got a local flat. There’s a possible “Double Bottom” pattern, which could be a departure point for an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2932 – 1.2951. At the same time, if bulls be stopped here, then there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10736 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Key option levels for Tuesday, October 4th 10/4/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 2 618 ? + 26 125 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1257; 1.1275; 1.1320; 1.1359 Closest support levels 1.1180; 1.1140; 1.1095; 1.1047 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1180, with target points at 1.1140 and 1.1095 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1257 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1275 and 1.1320 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 562 ? + 1 112 ? Closest resistance levels 102.24; 102.66; 103.14; 103.65 Closest support levels 101.28; 101.08; 100.63; 100.29 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 102.24, with the target points at 102.66 and 103.14 Alternative scenario Moving below 101.28 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.08 and 100.63 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10738 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 AUD/USD: the prices are on the Cloud again 10/4/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7650; resistance – 0.7690. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7650; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7750. Reason: a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising SSA; a strong support of the Cloud and Kijun-sen. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10739 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 USD/JPY: breaking out SSB 10/4/2016 Technical levels: support – 101.00/20; resistance – 102.50/70 Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 102.60; SL — 102.80; TP1 — 101.90; TP2 — 101.50. Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud; the prices are break trough SSB; a golden cross of rising Tenkan and Kijun, but the strong resistance near 102.50/70 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10740 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Why the US vice-presidential debates matter 10/4/2016 Vice-presidential debates usually are given scant media attention compared to the presidential ones. However, we encourage you not to skip the broadcasting at 1 am GMT. The event might not match the fireworks and the entertainment value given to us by D. Trump and H. Clinton, but it does matter for both domestic and international audiences. Here comes the main question – why? Let me elaborate on that. First, it is because of extremely high influence of the last three vice presidents – Joe Biden, Dick Cheney and Al Gore. The first one was vigorously advocating the last year’s nuclear deal with Iran and it was propelling the congressional ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Gore’s influence can be traced in the many international agreements he managed to negotiate working in the Bill Clinton’s administration (think for instance of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol). Cheney should be blamed for the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. The new vice president nominees – Republican Mike Pence and Democrat Tim Kaine – will certainly inherit their powers. Both candidates have a vast experience as governors; both may affect the foreign policy of the country. Second, let’s be honest, H. Clinton at her 68 and her counterpart D. Trump at his 70 are not young even for the presidential post that demands a good background/vast experience in running big companies or certain departments. If the elected president dies (God forbid!), the vice-president will have to take his/her place for a while. And this reveals the rationale of the Trump’s and Clinton’s decision to appoint much younger running mates (Pence is 57 and Kaine is 58). And the last reason why these debates are so important and worth your attention is that the position of vice-president has always been perceived as a transitional office to the presidency. Maybe, these debates will be a sort of a window to the US future. Meanwhile, the running mates can support the present candidates in the upcoming presidential debates scheduled for this Sunday. Kayne will try to build off Clinton’s victory at the first presidential debate, whereas Pence will articulate its policy vision and will be pointing out at Hillary’s weaknesses and controversial episodes of her service as Senator and Secretary of State. For these reasons we encourage you at least to skim the main takeaways after the debates and see the results. We don’t expect that vice-presidential debates will cause high volatility in markets, but the degree of pressure will certainly increase. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10741 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 GBP/NZD broke major support level 1.7750 10/4/2016 GBP/NZD broke major support level 1.7750 Next sell target - 1.7270 GBP/NZD today broke through the major support level 1.7750 (which stopped the three previous impulse waves - ?, (1) and 1, as can be seen from the daily GBP/NZD chart below). The breakout of the support level 1.7750 is expected to accelerate the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) of the primary downward impulse ? from the middle of July. GBP/NZD is expected to fall down further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.7270 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)). Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned price level 1.7750. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10742 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 USD/JPY & ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Is a pullback coming soon? 10/5/2016 Today at 12:15 GMT will be released the numbers from ADP Non-Farm employment change and markets are looking to price a decline from 177,000 jobs to 166,000 jobs, and this data could give us some hints of what we can expect in the next US NFP release due to this Friday. We should remind that last month's reading was in the line with expectations, so we'll see if this data can bring us a surprise before the Friday's event. Our technical analysis for USD/JPY at H4 chart is extremely bullish, as the pair managed to gain momentum during Tuesday's session and now, we're expecting to see a breakout above the resistance level of 102.96, in order to extend the rally towards the 103.68 zone. However, as the overall situation in the pair is very overbought, a pullback to the support level of 102.42 in a first degree is highly likely to happen. More: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 EUR/USD: rising to the Cloud 10/5/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1190; resistance – 1.1220, 1.1250 Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.1210; SL — 1.1190; TP1 — 1.1300; TP2 – 1.1330. Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; Ichimoku Cloud have a bearish character, SSB and SSA are horizontal. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10750 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 AUD/USD: trading in the Cloud 10/5/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7600, 0.7630; resistance – 0.7650, 0.7690. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7620; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7750. Reason: a new correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a strong support near 0.7600. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10751 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 USD/JPY: the Bulls are very active 10/5/2016 Technical levels: support – 102.20; resistance – 103.50 Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 102.20; SL — 102.00; TP1 — 103.00; TP2 — 103.50. 2. Sell — 103.50; SL — 103.70; TP1 — 102.80; TP2 — 102.20. Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; the prices are in the positive region; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong resistance near 103.50. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10752 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 USD/JPY: the end of the long-term bearish trend 10/5/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, a breakout of the upper boundary of the downward trade channel has become a signal of the end of the bearish trend.There is a great probability that the US dollar will continue its rally. The first target of the Gartley pattern is located near the 105.8-106 marks. There is also a level of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the XA wave. The levels of 103.5 and 104.45 should be used as interterm target. On the hourly USD/JPY chart, the breakout of the upper boundary of the downward trade channel followed by the successful test of the resistance line at 101.9 will allow us to open long positions. At the present time, the main strategy is to buy at the rebounds towards the support line located at the 102.7 and 102.2 levels. Recommendations: hold long position, SELL 102,2 SL 101,65 TP1 103,5 TP2 104,45 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10753 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 AUD/USD needs a new driver 10/5/2016 On the daily chart AUD/USD is trading in 0.7610-0.7700 area (23.6% Fibo of the last long-term bullish wave/?high of the second part of September). When the pair leaves this range, medium-term prospects of Australian currency will become clearer. On H1 the break of support at 0.7609 will make the pair form a reversal "Head and Shoulders" pattern. If the pair falls below 0.7586, AB=CD pattern will be activated. It's 161.8% target lies near 0.7525. On the othe hand, increase beyond 78.6% of the last descending wave (0.767) will strengthen the case for resumption of the bullish trend. Recommendation: SELL 0.7609 SL 0.7664 TP1 0.7525 TP2 0.751 BUY 0.767 TP 0.7615 TP 0.78. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10754 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 EUR/USD: bulls going to reach resistance 10/5/2016 The price is moving up and down between the downtrend line and the support area’s upper side. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.1196 – 1.1181 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.1256. There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1190 – 1.1181. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.1241 – 1.1250. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10755 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 GBP/USD: two "Pennants" in a row 10/5/2016 The last upward trend has been broken, so the price is likely going to reach the nearest support at the downtrend line. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction towards a resistance at 1.2795. We’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, so bears are likely going to get a support on the channel’s lower side. At the same time, if we see a pullback from here, bulls will probably try to approach the nearest resistance at 1.2773 – 1.2795. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10756 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 GBP/CHF broke support level 1.2490 10/5/2016 GBP/CHF broke support level 1.2490 Next sell target - 1.2200 GBP/CHF recently broke the support level 1.2490 (which stopped the previous impulse waves 3, © and ©, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CHF chart below). This support level is also the lower border of the wide sideways price channel inside which the pair has been trading in the last 3 months. The breakout of the support level 1.2490 is likely to accelerate the active intermediate correction (2). GBP/CHF is likely to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 1.2200. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) above the aforementioned price level 1.2490. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10758 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 EUR/GBP broke strong resistance level 0.8700 10/5/2016 EUR/GBP broke strong resistance level 0.8700 Next buy targets - 0.8900 and 0.9000 EUR/GBP has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave (v) – which belongs to wave 3 from the start of September. The price earlier broke sharply through the strong resistance level 0.8700 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 in the middle of August) – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair. EUR/GBP is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves (v), 3 and (3) (which are a part of the primary impulse ? from May) toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 0.8900 and 0.9000. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10759 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Will ECB taper its QE or not? Let’s figure it out! 10/5/2016 Bloomberg must be tired of the long-lasting absence of front-page splashes and decided to turn everybody’s attention to itself. Yesterday it came up with an extraordinary report citing unnamed ECB officials who said that the ECB is planning to taper its QE asset-buying program. This rattled Tuesday’s markets, sent yields to their highs and resulted in the sheer fall of gold prices. The euro experienced an upsurge versus dollar once the news came out. We couldn’t confirm the veracity of this report. From M. Draghi’s words that we heard at the last press conference, we can conclude that the ECB would rather extend its QE program when it is expired than taper it. No wonder why the ECB is going to do so; the economic recovery of Eurozone countries is hardly looming on the horizon; there are clear signs of subdued inflation. In one word, it seems that there is no rationale for such fundamental changes of monetary policy. That’s why many investors expect the monetary stimulus to be extended and even enlarged and that’s why the Bloomberg’s report made a stir in financial markets. Nobody could even think of this turn of event. You might ask then why would anybody believe this report. Well, there is a reason to wind down the QE program. It is considered to be a threat to banks’ margins. The most basic measure of a lender’s profitability is the gap between what it charges borrowers and the interest it has to pay depositors. But only few depositors are now receiving any interests from their saving accounts, and it’s difficult for banks to attract new clients with low or negative rates. Maybe, in the midst of the Deutsche Bank scandal and rising doubts about its feasibility to deal with it on its own, the ECB decided to somehow facilitate the work of banks by tapering its QE program. It could be so. But now we cannot be a hundred-percent sure, that it will actually happen, as we didn’t hear any official announcements from the “named” ECB officials. As a result, it’s yet to be seen whether the single currency is able to sustain bullish momentum. EUR/USD met resistance at 1.1230 (near-term resistance line) ahead of last week’s high near 1.1280. More: ]URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10761]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10761[/url] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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