riki143 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Morning brief for October 18 10/18/2016 The euro is taking revenge upon the US dollar. The EUR/USD has raised in the course of the last trading session, and now it continues its rally towards the new resistance level at 1.05. There is no fresh news for today from the eurozone. We will be waiting for the ECB press conference scheduled for Thursday for some clues on the bank’s monetary policy. The US consumer price inflation coming later this day might offer additional support to the USD. Alternatively, if the data are worse-than-expected, we will wait for the euro to rise. AUD/USD has gained momentum on the Asian session, putting on about 50 points. We heard new Governor of the RBA Philip Lowe speaking yesterday. He didn’t send us clear signal about the rate cut in the upcoming board’s minutes. It seems that the RBA will be waiting for inflation data coming on October 26 to shape a stance of its future monetary policy. Today the RBA’s minutes has been released. We saw some concerns over the AUD appreciation and its impact on the economic growth. The board decided not change interest rate, because at that moment it was consistent with RBA’s inflation and growth targets. Another mover of the Asian session is NZD. Kiwi rose on the better-than-expected inflation data for the Q3 and now it is trading around 0.718 and intermittently touches the higher levels. Despite all the attempts of the RBNZ, inflation rates are still extremely low and Kiwi appreciates as if nothing had happened. USD/JPY was muddled a little bit at the beginning of the session falsely moving downward, but then, in a matter of time it awoke to surroundings and started to move back towards the key level at 104. GBP/USD has raised during the last Asian session and touched the 1.2270 resistance line before sliding back to 1.222. Now it’s oscillating near the 1.223 level. The liquidity is perhaps the main factor that defines the current movement of this pair. Today, we expect the GBP to fall, if we get sour data on the UK inflation rate (Consumer Price Index, Retail Price Index, Producer Price Index). The depreciating pound, inflationary pressures and frustration of businesses’ investment plans exhibit a great challenge for the Bank of England. Policymakers cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25% in August. They were intended to cut them once again at the end of the year. But enduring strength of the incoming data showing that the economy managed to shrug off the shock of the “Brexit” vote and continuous depreciation of the pound could divert BOE’s officials from further monetary easing. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10930 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 EUR/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave 3 10/18/2016 EUR/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave 3 Next sell target - 1.5200 EUR/NZD recently reversed down strongly from the combined resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.5740, upper daily Bollinger Band, 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from May and the 100-day moving average. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star – which marked the end of the previous minor correction 2. EUR/NZD is likely to fall further in the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from July) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.5200 (which reversed the previous (-wave in September). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10932 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 NZD/USD reversed from support zone 10/18/2016 NZD/USD reversed from support zone Next buy target - 0.7240 NZD/USD recently reversed up sharply from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7080 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the earlier sharp upward impulse from the end of May, as can be seen from the daily NZD/USD chart below. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (4). NZD/USD is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the pivotal resistance level 0.7240 (former strong support from August and September). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10933 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 EUR/USD: wave [ii] started 10/18/2016 Wave was ended yesterday, so we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). In this case, bulls are likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level. It seems like wave (v) of [ii] was ended, so there’s a bullish impulse in wave (a), which is taking place on the one-hour chart. If we see a pullback from 2/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave ( shortly. At the same time, bulls will probably try to deliver wave © of [ii] afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10934 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 USD/CAD ahead of BoC's interest rate decision: Re-taking the bullish bias? 10/19/2016 Today at 14:00 GMT will be published the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, where the central bank is expected to leave unchanged its benchmark rate at 0.5%, as the analysts are waiting for no changes. At the same time, will be released the monetary policy report, that could bring some further hints in terms of economic policies for coming months. Remember that interest rates from the BoC have been on hold since May 2015. Our technical analysis for USD/CAD at H4 chart is showing a key support around 1.3066, which is slightly below the 200 SMA. With dovish words by the Bank of Canada, the Loonie may perform a strong rebound at current levels and afterward, it can skyrocket towards the 1.3260 level in a first degree. By the other hand, if the pair manages to break the 1.3000 psychological level, then it can test the 1.2900 zone in coming days. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10939 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 USD/CAD: "bulls" are going to counterattack 10/19/2016 On the USD/CAD daily chart, "bulls" failed to keep the quotes above resistance at 1.3306, it has become a signal of their weakness. "Bears" pulled down the pair to the lower boundary of the rising trade channel. Here the "bulls" may launch their counterattack. On the USD/CAD hourly chart, "bulls" are trying to regain their initiative, having broken the boundaries of the downward trading channel. Successful test of resistance at 1,315 may lead to the restoration of uptrend. If the target 127.2% of the "Perfect Butterfly" pattern (1.3) is fulfilled, it will create prerequisites for the attack of "bulls". Recommendations: BUY 1,315 SL 1,3095 TP1 1,324 TP2 1,3305 BUY 1,3 SL 1,2945 TP1 1,315 TP2 1,324. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10940 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 GBP/USD: pound is tired of moving southwards 10/19/2016 On the GBP/USD daily chart, quotes came closer to the upper boundary of the consolidation range 1,2109-1,2317. Successful test of resistance line will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards 1,248 and 1,285. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, "bulls" failed to test the resistance line at 1.2215. Nevertheless, they are still determined to break this important level. If they manage to do so, the targets 78.6% and 127.2% in the "Hartley" and "Crab" patterns will be fulfilled. They are located at the 1.24 and 1.257 levels. Recommendation: BUY 1,2315 SL 1,226 TP1 1,24 TP2 1,257 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10941 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 USD/JPY: on the Cloud support 10/19/2016 Technical levels: support – 103.70; resistance – 104.20, 104.60, 105.20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 103.80; SL — 103.60; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20. Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A is falling down; an untypical golden cross of falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the correction may continue in the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10942 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 GBP/USD: correction may continue 10/19/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2230; resistance – 1.2330, 1.2400. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2230; SL — 1.2210; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2400. Reason: the prices are inside a Cloud; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal and formed a strong support near 1.2200. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10943 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Morning brief for October 19 10/19/2016 Aussie and especially Kiwi did their best in the course of the last trading sessions. Despite the fact that dairy auction results fell short of expectations, kiwi experienced a significant upsurge. It managed to test the resistance above 0.7225 and continued its rally towards the new hurdle at 0.725. But since NZD and AUD outperformed in last sessions, there could be slight roll backs from their current position. In China everything is proceeding according to plan. GDP data, retail sales and fixed asset investment came out in line with expectations. But there is always something that goes wrong. This time industrial production data disappointed Chinese authorities having reached 6.1% instead of forecasted 6.4%. USD is losing its momentum across the trading desk and depreciates in relation to yen, Aussie, EUR, NZD...Well, I guess you got the idea. Pound is lagging again. It struggled to test the resistance at 1.231, but gave in very fast. Now it’s hovering around the 1.227 level. Today the monthly update on the UK labor market will show up. We’ll also see new numbers on US residential housing construction for September. The forecast for these data is neutral. Today we expect USD/CAD to work in a sweat ahead and after the Bank of Canada’s rate statement and monetary policy report. Analysts say that there shouldn’t be any significant changes in the BOC’s monetary stance. Once the dovish tone is caught in the words of BOC, Canadian dollar could slide from its current position (the pair may rise in the direction of 1.317 level. If the BOC decides to keep rate on hold, Loonie may take it out on the US dollar (the pair could fall towards 1.306 – 1.301 area). Oil prices rose significantly on the report of a drop in U.S. crude inventories and declining production in China. Long-awaited OPEC statement on its planned output cut offers additional support to the oil market. A weaker dollar boosted oil as well. International Brent crude futures added almost 40 points from the opening of today’s session. Later on we will receive the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s official crude and fuel storage data. Analysts expect the reduction of oil inventories. It might lift oil prices again. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10944 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 EUR/USD: "Flag" points to new local low 10/19/2016 There’s a local consolidation, which is taking place under the nearest resistance at 1.1032. So, the price is likely going to test a support at 1.0951 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.1045. We’ve got a “Flag” on the one-hour chart, so bears are likely going to reach the next support at 1.0960 – 1.0951 during the day. At the same time, there’s an option to see an upward movement in the direction of the 34 Moving Average afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10945 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 GBP/USD: consolidation going to move on 10/19/2016 The price faced a resistance at 1.2323, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.2226 – 1.2089. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.2476. The 89 Moving Average has acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a local flat. In this case, it’s likely to see a bearish price movement towards a support at 1.2226 – 1.2132. However, if we have a pullback from these levels, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.2323 – 1.2476 as an intraday target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10946 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Key option levels for Wednesday, October 19th 10/19/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 68 950 ? + 286 946 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1011; 1.1040/56; 1.1077; 1.1103 Closest support levels 1.0991; 1.0970; 1.0952; 1.0928 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0991, with target points at 1.0970 and 1.0952 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1011 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1040 and 1.1077 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 402 ? + 199 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2357; 1.2383; 1.2400; 1.2419 Closest support levels 1.2268; 1.2245; 1.2211; 1.2164 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2268, with target points at 1.2245 and 1.2211 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2357 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2383 and 1.2400 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 674 ? + 797 ? Closest resistance levels 103.94; 104.18/36; 104.59; 104.87 Closest support levels 103.34; 103.19; 102.98; 102.72 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 103.34, with the target points at 103.19 and 102.98 Alternative scenario Moving above 103.94 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 104.18 and 104.59 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10947 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Tips on trading NZD from Westpac 10/19/2016 Westpac turns off from the beaten trail and suggests to trade NZD/CHF instead of NZD/USD. The kiwi may appreciate in near-term as overall economic activity remains strong across all sectors in New Zealand. Confidence among businesses and consumers doesn’t fade away, and the dairy sector shows green shoots. Despite all these factors NZD may fall in relation to USD because of the looming threat of the RBNZ’ rate cut in November and anticipated rate hike from the Fed. That’s why the Australian bank believes that buying NZD/CHF is safer than NZD/USD (it buys NZD/CHF at 0.7080 with a stop at 0.6995). The inflation data for New Zealand surprised markets yesterday with a stronger than expected print of 0.2%. This lifted the kiwi in relation to other currencies across the trading desk. But the recent bounce in NZD’s movement shouldn’t last long as rate cut expectations continued to build ahead of the RBNZ meeting. So, the decision to trade NZD/CHF instead of NZD/USD could be wise. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10949 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 EUR/USD & ECB's interest rate decision: Will Draghi provide some hints on further QE "tapering"? 10/20/2016 Today at 11:45 GMT we’ll have the ECB’s interest rate decision, where is highly expected to see that officials will leave unchanged its policies and rates will stay on hold. During the last meeting, economic forecast was changed slightly by Mario Draghi, but today’s headline could be any hints that ECB’s president may provide about a possible QE tapering. If we hear some words about it, then EUR may pop higher, as demand will increase. Our technical view for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a very weak pair, as the spot is finding support at the 1.0969 level. There is still a high risk to the downside, because if the pair manages to do a breakout there, we could expect another decline towards the 1.0821 level, which is well below the July’s lows. In another scenario, where Draghi’s words may be hawkish or specifically, he brings some hints about QE tapering., we can expect a rebound towards the 1.1154 level in a first degree. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10961 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 AUD/USD: bulls retreat, but don't give up 10/20/2016 On the daily chart AUD/USD reached 0.7710 target of the long positions. The bulls failed to move higher because of the bears' counterattack. Never the less, if Aussie manages to settle above 0.7690, this may be regarded as the retest of the neckline of the inversed "Head and Shoulders" pattern. It will be a signal for opening long positions. On H1 AUD/USD the break of support at 0.7660 will activate the "Shark" pattern. Its 88.6% target is at 0.7595 level. If the buyers manage to return inside the borders of the short-term channel, they may easily restore the bullish trend. Recommendation: BUY 0,769 SL 0,7635 TP 0,785 BUY 0,7595 SL 0,7540 TP1 0,769 TP2 0,775. More: [url=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10962 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 EUR/USD: euro is losing firm ground 10/20/2016 On the daily EUR/USD chart the bearish trend is resuming. This conclusion may be drawn from the fact that the pair returned to the previous descending channel. The attempts of the bulls to launch a counterattack have failed. The break of support at 1.0950-1.0955 will make the euro resume the decline. Targets are at 1.0895 and 1.0840. On H1 «Three moves» pattern means that the pair may slide to 1.09 and lower. The nearest resistance lies at 1.1040. It it's tested successfully, we'll see a correction. Recommendation: hold short from 1.1. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10963 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 GBP/USD: trading in the Cloud 10/20/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2230, 1.2260; resistance – 1.2330, 1.2400. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2260; SL — 1.2240; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2400. 2. Buy — 1.2230; SL — 1.2210; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2400. Reason: the prices are inside a Cloud; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but a rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10964 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 AUD/USD: testing the September highs 10/20/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7670, 0.7640, 0.7620; resistance – 0.7730. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7730; TP2 — 0.7780. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the rising lines of Indicator Ichimoku. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10965 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 USD/JPY: on the bearish pressure 10/20/2016 Technical levels: support – 103.50, 103.05/10; resistance – 103.80, 104.20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 103.50; SL — 103.30; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10966 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 EUR/USD: two "Flags" in a row 10/20/2016 There’s a consolidation, which is taking place under the nearest resistance at 1.1032. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0911. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.0978 – 1.1001. We’ve got a “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to get a support at 1.0951 – 1.0911 during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a price movement towards the closest resistance at 1.0960 – 1.0978. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10967 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 GBP/USD: resistance by Moving Average 10/20/2016 The price faced a resistance at 1.2323, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2226 – 1.2089 in the short term. At the same time, if a pullback from this area be on the table, bulls will have a chance to reach the 34 Moving Average. We’ve got a flat, which is taking place between the nearest resistance at 1.2323 and the 55 & 34 Moving Averages. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2226 – 1.2132. Meanwhile, if a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an option to have a bullish price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2323 – 1.2476. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10968 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Key option levels for Thursday, October 20th 10/20/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 81 420 ? + 205 883 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1030; 1.1047; 1.1070; 1.1098 Closest support levels 1.0974(?); 1.0946; 1.0924 (Critical); 1.0896 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0974, with target points at 1.0946 and 1.0924 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1030 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1047 and 1.1070 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 583 ? + 562 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2329; 1.2373(56?); 1.2393; 1.2416 Closest support levels 1.2257; 1.2239; 1.2210; 1.2167 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2257, with target points at 1.2239 and 1.2210 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2329 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2373 and 1.2393 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 784 ? + 1 088 ? Closest resistance levels 103.65; 104.04; 104.31; 104.65 Closest support levels 103.14(?); 102.90; 102.74; 102.54 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.65, with the target points at 104.04 and 104.31 Alternative scenario Moving below 103.14 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.90 and 102.74 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 237 ? + 440 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3191; 1.3236; 1.3294; 1.3364 Closest support levels 1.3113; 1.3094; 1.3077; 1.3048 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3191, with the target points at 1.3236 and 1.3294 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3113 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3094 and 1.3077 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10969 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 AUD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7720 10/20/2016 AUD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7720 Next sell target - 0.7600 AUD/USD today reversed down sharply from the resistance level 0.7720, which is the lower border of the strong resistance zone which has been reversing this currency pair from April (As you can see from the daily AUD/USD chart below). The upper boundary of this strong resistance zone stands at the resistance level 0.78000 (which reversed the previous primary ABC correction in the middle of April). Given the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - AUD/USD can be expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the nearby support level 0.7600. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10970 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 AUD/NZD reversed from strong resistance level 1.0740 10/20/2016 AUD/NZD reversed from strong resistance level 1.0740 Next sell target - 1.0570 AUD/NZD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier- when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the multi-month resistance level 1.0740 (which has been reversing the price from the end of May), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from April. AUD/NZD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.0570 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next round support level 1.0500 (which reversed the previous minor (-wave in September). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10971 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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