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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 7: Asian session

 

 

 

USD/JPY slipped back below the 99.00 mark. Japanese banks opened after a 4-day weekend with yen strengthening on Japan Fin Min comments.

 

AUD/USD plummeted to $1.0180 as RBA cut its cash rate to the record low of 2.75%. Meanwhile, Australian trade balance showed surplus for the first time since Jan. 2012. NZD/USD fell below 0.8500.

 

EUR/USD is consolidating a bit below the $1.3100 mark. The single currency is slowly recovering from yesterday’s ECB Draghi’s dovish comments.

GBP/USD is trading at $1.5540. USD/CAD remains below 1.0100.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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CFTC: USD longs keep contracting

 

Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, May 3, by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended April 30.

 

Large speculators slightly decreased their USD net long positions from $24.9 bln to $24.5 bln.

 

It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 8: Asian session

 

 

NZD/USD was the biggest mover of the day: the pair dropped by 100 pips to 0.8360, but then recovered to 0.8400. RBNZ Governor Wheeler said at the news conference that kiwi is overvalued and that there is scope for a rate cut. He also announced that RBNZ had, in fact, sold New Zealand dollars as an intervention strategy to ‘take the top of the rallies’. AUD/USD recovered to $1.0190 after having tested a fresh two-month low of $1.0160. Aussie found support as Chinese trade surplus increased.

 

USD/JPY is trading range bound a bit below the 99.00 mark. EUR/USD strengthened to $1.3090 on speculation that ECB is looking at buying bad loans from Southern European nations. GBP/USD is consolidating below $1.5500. USD/CAD recovered to 1.0050.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD recovered to $1.0200

 

 

 

AUD/USD recovered back to $1.0200 after having touched a fresh two-month low at $1.0160. The next sell orders are seen at $1.0220 and $1.0250, while buy orders lie at $1.0180, $1.0150 and $1.0120.

 

The overall technical picture remains negative. However, strategists at Bank of New Zealand expect the $1.0115 support to hold the downside in AUD/USD. Specialists doubt that there will be another RBA rate cut.

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 9: Asian session

 

 

New Zealand and Australia released unexpectedly strong employment figures today. As a result, AUD/USD rebounded to $1.0270, while NZD/USD – to $0.8480. China CPI increased by 2.4% y/y, slightly above consensus and previous at +2.1%. USD/JPY failed to close above 99.00 yesterday and is now trading at 98.75.

 

EUR/USD is consolidating around $1.3150 ahead of the ECB Monthly Report due later. There are no other important events on the agenda. Today the European Banks are closed in observance of Ascension Day. GBP/USD is trading at $1.5550 ahead of the BoE policy meeting at 11:00 GMT. The regulator is expected to remain on hold. USD/CAD slipped to 1.0020.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

USD/JPY: 98.00, 98.50, 98.75, 98.85, 99.00, 99.50, 100.00

EUR/USD: $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3075, $1.3085, $1.3100, $1.3125, $1,3150, $1.3155, $1.3200

GBP/USD: $1.5375

AUD/USD: $1.0160, $1.0200, $1.0225, $1.0235, $1.0255

AUD/JPY: 103.50

EUR/CHF: 1.2350

 

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EUR/USD: technical update

 

 

 

 

After climbing to $1.3175 EUR/USD retraced back towards the $1.3150 mark. Euro bulls remain weak even despite successful Spanish short-term bond auction.

 

In our view, it makes sense to sell EUR/USD on rallies. Short-term support is seen at $1.3130/20 and $1.3100. Slide below the last level would be a selling signal. A break above $1.3250 would open the way for further euro’s appreciation. However, for now the upside remains capped by the strong resistance at $1.3200 and $1.3240.

 

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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FX majors from top forecasters

 

 

 

 

Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on May 10.

 

Source: FX Week

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 14: Asian session

 

 

 

Asian stocks rose, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets. USD/JPY slid to 101.40 after reaching 102.15 yesterday, while Australian and New Zealand’s currencies strengthened. AUD/USD is currently trying to return to the parity after touching an 11-month low of $0.9940 yesterday. NZD/USD returned to the levels just under $0.8300 after testing $0.8230 yesterday. New Zealand’s retail sales added 0.5% in Q2 vs. 0.9% growth expected. Don’t miss the release of Australian budget at 09:30 GMT.

 

EUR/USD holds above the $1.3000 mark. Yesterday Cyprus received its first emergency aid payment and Greece won approval of 7.5B euro ($9.7 billion) of rescue loans. Italy’s 3-year debt auction with costs lowest since January lowered concerns about the country's prospects. However, the pair’s rebound was capped by the $1.3020 mark. Today’s euro zone’s agenda is busy with important data releases.

 

GBP/USD is trading around $1.531. Cable dipped below $1.5300 on Monday after a US report showed retail sales unexpectedly increased in April. USD/CAD is trading in the red around 1.0100.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD tries to recover

 

 

 

 

Dynamics of the Australian dollar looks impressive: AUD/USD slipped by more than 400 pips since the beginning of May. The unexpected RBA rate cut on May 7 drove the pair below parity. Today the pair is trading in the positive territory after having tested a new low at $0.9940 (lowest since June 2012) on Monday. However, the parity level remains a strong resistance for the Aussie bulls.

 

Our outlook turned bearish as Aussie broke below the $1.0115 range support and was confirmed by a break below $1.0000. Given the dovish RBA, improved US prospects and reduced confidence in China, our next targets lie at $0.9900 and $0.9820 (200-week EMA). In case of a recovery, we recommend selling the pair on rallies. Analysts at RBS concede a short-term rebound to $1.0200, but stay bearish in a medium term.

 

Australia will release its annual budget at 09:30 GMT. The nation is expected to announce $A 17 bln deficit in 2012/13. For 2013/14 the forecasted deficit is around $A 11 bln. In case of negative surprises in the budget AUD selling could increase significantly.

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 15: Asian session

 

 

EUR/USD has finally made a new monthly low of $1.2910 on Tuesday. Today euro is trading in the positive territory around $1.2930 on the back of the weaker US dollar. Fitch rating agency yesterday raised Greece’s rating to B- from CCC. Economic calendar is busy today: pay special attention to the German and euro zone’s GDP.

 

USD/JPY is trading above 102 after reaching 102.43. Weaker yen helped Japan’s Nikkei share average rise above the psychologically key 15,000 threshold for the first time since January 2008.

 

AUD/USD is trading a bit above 11-month low of $0.9876 hit yesterday as the premium the nation’s bonds offer over US debt declined to the minimal level in a year reducing Aussie’s attractiveness as a higher-yielding currency. Australian stocks fell due to the weakness in mining firms. NZD/USD is just above $0.8200 due to weaker than expected New Zealand’s retail sales released on Monday and broad USD strength.

 

GBP/USD is trading at $1.5225 after having closed at a fresh low of $1.5200 on Tuesday. Today the Bank of England will present its updated inflation forecasts. USD/CAD rose to 1.0190 on falling oil prices. USD/CHF rose to 0.9674 today and is testing the levels above the 200-week MA.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD extended losses

 

 

 

 

Australian dollar extends losses for 8 days in a row: today AUD/USD tested a fresh yearly low of $0.9850. Downside slowed after the pair met the 200-week SMA at $0.9870. The picture remains bearish: for now the upside is capped at the parity level. A break below the today’s low would be a new selling signal with a target of $0.9800.

 

As can be seen from the daily chart, the pair is oversold. Some consolidation may be needed before a decisive break below the 200-week SMA. Commerzbank analysts warn of corrective rebounds, but expect the $1.0000/15 level to offer a good resistance.

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 16: Asian session

 

EUR/USD is trading in the negative territory below $1.2900 before a CPI release may show inflation in the euro zone was the slowest in three years, what would confirm the expectations of the ECB rate cut. Yesterday the single currency renewed a 6-week low as euro zone’s GDP release confirmed the economy stays in recession for sixth quarters.

 

USD/JPY is consolidating above 102.00. Yen strengthened a bit after Japanese preliminary Q2 GDP expanded by 0.9% (forecast: 0.7%; prev.: 0.0%).

 

AUD/USD is trading below $0.9900, close to 11-month low after signs of slowdown in the global economy weighed on commodity prices dimming the outlook for Australian exports.

 

NZD/USD reached $0.8270, but is now trading around $0.8245. New Zealand’s budget didn’t bring any surprises. According to Moody’s, the nation’s ‘budget trajectory’ is supportive of AAA rating.

 

GBP/USD is consolidating around $1.5230 following the yesterday’s dip to $1.5170. USD/CAD hovers around the 1.0200 mark. Loonie recovered a bit on the weak US data, released yesterday. USD/CHF spiked up to 0.9747 yesterday and is currently trading around 0.9660.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY: bulls taking profit below 103.00

 

 

 

Let’s have a brief look at USD/JPY. Rally slowed following the yesterday’s strong Japanese preliminary GDP and the downbeat US data. The pair is now trading a bit below the yesterday’s high at 102.75, but bulls keep strengthening.

 

Most economists expect USD/JPY growth to continue in the near term. Analysts at BTMU say the pair is taking a breather after its recent sharp rise. According to analysts at Mizuho Securities, the current profit-taking in USD/JPY is also caused by the slide in the Nikkei stock average, which fell 1.1% to below the 15,000 line breached Wednesday. Analysts say eyes are now on further US releases: today watch the April CPI and housing starts, as well as weekly jobless claims later in the day.

 

 

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 17: Asian session

 

 

US dollar was near a 10-month high versus a basket of currencies after John Williams, San Francisco FRB president said the central bank may begin to taper its asset buying this summer.

 

USD/JPY keeps consolidating around 102.30. Japan’s core machinery orders added 14.2% (forecast: 3.1%). AUD/USD fell to new 11-month low at 0.9736. NZD/USD slid to $0.8087. AUD and NZD were sold heavily from multiple sources today.

 

EUR/USD is trading in the negative territory around $1.2865. Market sentiment remains bearish but the pair still holds slightly above the recent lows at $1.2840, supported by the downbeat US figures released this week. Today there are no market-moving events on the euro zone’s agenda.

 

GBP/USD returned to $1.5250 after the yesterday’s rebound above $1.5300. USD/CAD strengthened to 1.0220.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 reasons for USD/CHF to reach parity (UBS)

 

 

 

According to UBS strategists, USD/CHF is doomed to reach the parity level over the coming weeks. The reasons are as follows:

 

  1. First, demand for safe haven assets is waning as central banks keep loosening monetary policy to revive economic growth;
  2. Last year’s ECB commitment to buy government bonds through Outright Monetary Transactions has cut the risk of the region’s bankruptcy;
  3. SNB remains committed to capping the franc at 1.20 against the euro and warns it is ready to take further measures. In contrast, the Fed may become the first major central bank to start exiting unconventional monetary policy;
  4. Franc suffers from the fears about Germany’s recovery stalling this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 22: Asian session

 

USD weakened yesterday after dovish comments from the FOMC’s Bullard and Dudley. The markets are now waiting for Ben Bernanke’s speech and the FOMC minutes at 14:00 and 18:00 GMT respectively.

 

EUR/USD extended recovery and tested $1.2940 on Wednesday. Yesterday the pair closed above the $1.2900 mark. The European leaders are gathering in Brussels today to discuss taxation policies with a particular focus on how to improve the efficiency of tax collection.

 

USD/JPY is trading at 102.50. The Bank of Japan affirmed a plan to double the monetary base over 2 years at today’s meeting. The central bank will expand the supply of money in the economy by 60 trillion yen ($585 billion) to 70 trillion yen a year, as pledged in April. Japan’s exports missed estimates in April and the trade deficit increased, data today showed.

 

AUD/USD is once again trading below $0.9800. Westpac Consumer confidence in Australia came in at the worst rate over a year this May dropping by 7% on the monthly basis. NZD/USD slid below $0.8150 after spiking to $0.8210 yesterday.

 

GBP/USD is consolidating around $1.5150 after having dipped to $1.5110 yesterday. Watch the MPC meeting minutes later in the day. USD/CAD is trading at 1.0270 after having jumped to 1.0320 on Tuesday on bets the Fed could trim QE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 23: Asian session

 

 

US dollar strengthened as home sales rose and before US data which are released today forecast to show jobless claims decreased. In addition, the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke said yesterday the central bank may taper monthly bond purchases if it’s confident of sustained gains in the economy.

 

EUR/USD touched $1.3000 on Bernanke’s comments yesterday, but reversed from there and is trading around $1.2850 as of writing. The ECB President Draghi will deliver a speech later on Thursday.

 

USD/JPY is back at 102.50 after touching 103.73 yesterday. AUD/USD hit fresh 11-month low at $0.9616 as a private report showed China’s manufacturing is contracting for the first time in 7 months (HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI came at 49.6 vs. 50.5 expected). NZD/USD fell to $0.8018

 

GBP/USD is consolidating at $1.5050 after the yesterday’s drop. The yesterday’s weak UK figures increased pressure on the sterling. USD/CHF is at 0.9770 after reaching 0.9839 yesterday. USD/CAD jumped by more than 100 pips yesterday and closed aе 1.0360. Today the pair is trading at a fresh yearly high at 1.0370.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD dipped below $0.9600

 

 

 

Aussie dollar extends the downside, driven down by the weak Chinese manufacturing PMI (prelim. May estimate: 49.6, forecast: 50.5). On Thursday AUD/USD renewed an 11-week low at $0.9595, but then quickly recovered back to $0.9680.

 

Despite the fact that yesterday Ben Bernanke said it was too early to taper QE, he actually didn’t deny that US is on the way to the “exit”, so the greenback’s prospects are not so bad. Falling commodity prices are increasing the pressure on the Aussie.

 

Trader sentiment towards the Aussie remains bearish despite the strongly oversold market conditions. Next support is seen at $0.9570 (2012 low). We would expect a bullish correction to start from here, but buying the Aussie remains a risky trade. We will be prepared to sell the pair on rallies from $0.9840 as the AUD/USD’s drop seems to be structural. Commerzbank’s medium-term target lies at $0.9400/9380.

 

 

 

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 24: Asian session

 

USD is feeling strong ahead of US data forecast to show orders for durable goods rose in April, diminishing the need for monetary stimulus.

 

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.2930 area after it reached $1.2956 yesterday. Euro’s supported as German data due at 08:00 GMT may show that business confidence bottomed out after a 2-month decline. In addition, German GDP will be published at 06:00 GMT. GBP/USD is trying to hold around $1.5100 after it recovered from $1.5013 hit yesterday.

 

USD/JPY slid to 101.25. Japanese stocks turned negative on Friday after falling by 7.3% yesterday (the largest 1-day drop in 2 years). The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank had no specific targets for stock prices and the level of the yen and will not comment on day-to-day moves.

 

Commodity currencies were off lows, but their outlook remained shaky given worries about Chinese growth. Aussie and kiwi are trading on the downside: AUD/USD is below 0.9700, NZD/USD is around $0.8100. AUD and NZD were lower against the yen as stock declines worldwide spurred investors to sell higher-yielding assets. New Zealand’s trade surplus came below the forecast (157M vs. 495M expected). USD/CAD is trading above 1.0300 after it has almost reached 1.0400.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 27: Asian session

USD/JPY is trading just above 101.00 after dipping to 100.80 earlier today. Yen strengthened amid concern the Bank of Japan is struggling to control the nation’s bond yields through monetary stimulus. The BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said yesterday the nation could cope with rising interest rates, after yields on Japanese government bonds rose for a third week.

 

EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.2915/45 range following the Friday’s quick test of the $1.3000 mark. There are no data releases on the agenda, so the market is expected to trade calmly on Monday.

 

AUD/USD opened with a gap down and touched $0.9615. NZD/USD slid below $0.8100. Australian and New Zealand dollars fell after China’s president signaled a tolerance for slower growth. In addition, US data due tomorrow are expected to show improvement in consumer confidence that may add to the case for the Fed to slow stimulus.

 

GBP/USD is consolidating at $1.5130. Demand for the pound remains subdued mainly due to weak data background from the past week. USD/CAD strengthened to $1.0325. USD/CHF found some support around 0.9600. Today the US and UK markets are closed for a holiday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis

 

 

 

Monthly. The pair may have finished forming the wave B of the rising Zigzag А-В-С. Wave B is in the form of the Triple Three [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z]. EUR/USD currently keeps forming wave [2] of C. Let’s analyze the wave’s structure in detail.

 

EURUSD1.PNG

Chart. Montly EUR/GBP

 

Daily. The pair keeps forming downside impulse in the wave (с) of [2].

 

EURUSD2.PNG

Chart. Daily EUR/GBP

 

 

H4. We are now witnessing the formation of the wave IV. When it’s formed, there will be final wave V of the downside impulse. Wave III is 200% of the wave I and in such cases wave V usually equals wave I. this means that the decline may finish close to the end of the wave III.

 

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

Authored by Roman Petuchov

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fbsana.png

 

 

 

 

 

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis

 

 

 

Monthly. The pair may have finished forming the wave B of the rising Zigzag А-В-С. Wave B is in the form of the Triple Three [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z]. EUR/USD currently keeps forming wave [2] of C. Let’s analyze the wave’s structure in detail.

 

EURUSD1.PNG

Chart. Montly EUR/GBP

 

Daily. The pair keeps forming downside impulse in the wave (с) of [2].

 

EURUSD2.PNG

Chart. Daily EUR/GBP

 

 

H4. We are now witnessing the formation of the wave IV. When it’s formed, there will be final wave V of the downside impulse. Wave III is 200% of the wave I and in such cases wave V usually equals wave I. this means that the decline may finish close to the end of the wave III.

 

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

Authored by Roman Petuchov

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have a profitable trade with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

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>>Welcome to FXBazooka.com<<

 

 

 

Comment here: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/108

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fbsana.png

 

 

 

 

 

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis

 

 

 

 

Weekly. AUD/USD keeps forming wave [iV] of C.

AUDUSD1.PNG

Chart. Weekly AUD/USD

 

Daily. For now the horizontal triangle is still in place. According to our marking, we’ll soon see growth in the wave [V].

 

AUDUSD2.PNG

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

H4. Wave С seems almost completed. It’s quite possible that we are witnessing upside impulse and corrective wave after it. If this assumption is correct, there will be growth from the current price. Alternative scenario: the breakthrough of the last low and the resumption of growth after such dip.

 

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

 

By Roman Petuchov for FBS Markets Inc

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have a profitable trade with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 28: Asian session

 

 

 

USD rose against most of its major peers before US data today that may show consumer confidence improved and home prices gained and the possibility of the Fed’s tapering monthly bind purchases increased.

 

EUR/USD returned above $1.2900 after earlier testing levels below this handle, but is still below the opening price. The release of German import prices is the only event in the euro zone’s calendar. GBP/USD is fluctuating around $1.5100 after it tested $1.5063 in Asia. MPC member Tucker speaks at 17:00 GMT. USD/CAD is around 1.0340 after testing 1.0367 in the morning. USD/CHF touched 0.9680, but later corrected down to 0.9660.

 

USD/JPY jumped by 100 pips to 102.00. Nikkei 225 opened in the red, but later on turned to growth and was last seen at 14,324 (+1.20%). According to Japan’s economy minister Amari, Japanese stock markets may exit turbulence soon as global markets settle.

 

AUD/USD rebounded to 0.9650 following a dip below 0.9600 earlier in the day. NZD/USD remains relatively flat, but rose to $0.8090 in the Asian trade. Gold is trading in the red around $1390 per ounce. This week markets will pay special attention to Chinese Manufacturing PMI on Saturday (forecast – negative).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have a profitable trade with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

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Comment here: http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/76

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