internationallove Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: an attempt to recover? EUR/USD made an impressive advance yesterday as the ECB President Mario Draghi sounded less dovish than the market’s expected. As analysts from Danske Bank said, “data are soft – Draghi is not”. Draghi hinted that as long as the medium-term outlook is okay the ECB won’t cut rates further but will keep the borrowing costs unchanged at low levels for a long time. Draghi didn’t say that euro’s appreciation poses downside economic risks and acknowledged lower inflation. The main risks for EUR are now those associated with Italy and until political uncertainty in this nation is sorted out EUR/USD may find itself in the $1.3200/2900 area. Nomura keeps recommending selling EUR on rallies. In their view, “the single currency is in a new regime of growth under-performance as key driver.” US non-farm payrolls (NFP) might clarity whether EUR/USD manages to recover further. Economists expect US jobs to increase by 162K in Feb. after adding 157K in Jan. Better than expected figures will be positive for USD. Resistance for euro lies at $1.3125/40 (100-day MA, top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud) and $1.3200, while support is found at $1.3055, $1.3000 and $1.2965. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-06/21822-march-6-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/CAD: all eyes on payrolls Analysts at BK Asset Management think that USD/CAD may be the most interesting pair to watch today as Canadian and US employment figures will be released at the same time. USD/CAD has already gained much since the beginning of the year. Last month the number of jobs in Canada contracted by 21.9K and the Bank of Canada sounded rather dovish. If Canada records second consecutive month of job losses (forecast: +7.8K), while US payrolls come closer to 200K (forecast: 162K), USD/CAD could jump to 1.0400 level and head towards 1.0500. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-08/21872-usdcad-all-eyes-payrolls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 11, 2013 Author Share Posted March 11, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. NAB: sell AUD/USD on rallies Most analysts remain skeptical about the prospects of the Australian currency. Combination of weak Chinese and upbeat US figures is weighing on the Aussie. According to Saturday’s release, Chinese industrial production increased only by 9.9% in Jan-Feb (cons: 10.4%; prev.: 10.3%). Analysts at NAB recommend selling AUD/USD on highs as they expect it to revisit $1.0115 before the end of March. In their view, AUD can leak lower again without the need for domestic data to worsen and RBA rate cut fears to revive. Falling metals prices are the fundamental driver which could be a catalyst for AUD’s depreciation, especially after the soft China data. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-11/21890-nab-sell-audusd-rallies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. March 12: Asian session EUR/USD is calmly trading in a narrow $1.3020/40 range. Today there are no important releases on the agenda, except for the German final CPI and WPI at 7:00 GMT. USD/JPY set new high at 96.71. Yen dropped for a fifth day as Bank of Japan deputy governor nominee Kikuo Iwata said decisive monetary easing is needed. Minutes released today of the BOJ’s meeting also showed that the central bank members are considering bolder stimulus measures. AUD/USD reached $1.0312 as Asia stock markets rallied and as investors pared bets on interest-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but then resistance became too strong and it returned to $1.0280. NZD/USD is trading on the downside, probing support at $0.8250. Kiwi’s affected by severe droughts which may affect New Zealand’s economic growth. GBP/USD remains below $1.4900. Yesterday the cable tested $1.4865 (lowest since June 2010). Today watch the British Jan. manufacturing production (forecast 0.0% vs. Dec. +1.6%) and trade balance at 9:30 GMT. Great Britain will also release NIESR GDP estimate at 15:00 GMT. USD/CAD recovered to 1.0265. USD/CHF is right under 0.9500, up from 0.9468. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-12/21906-march-12-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2950, $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3075; GBP/USD: $1.4900, $1.4995, $1.5025; USD/JPY: 95.00, 95.50, 95.60, 96.00, 96.40, 96.50, 96.75; AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0225, $1.0240, $1.0330; EUR/CHF: 1.2200, 1.2350; GBP/JPY: 142.00; AUD/JPY: 96.00 USD/CAD: 1.0280. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-12/21912-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD: technical picture remains gloomy GBP/USD is testing levels below $1.4900. There is some support at $1.4865 (yesterday’s low) and $1.4800 and we see some diversion on daily MACD. Yet, the upside will likely be limited by the psychological level of $1.5000. Only a recovery above $1.5047 (Mar. 8 high) may mean that the temporary minimum is formed and sterling will have chance to correct to $1.5080/5100. There will be also some resistance at $1.4950. RBS points out that although pound’s oversold, there’s little chance of a trend reversal in the short term. The specialists recommend looking for potential support at $1.4783 (March 2010 minimum). Otherwise expect the sell-off will continue to the $1.4234 level before a significant turnaround. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-12/21916-gbpusd-technical-picture-remains-gloomy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. March 12: European session EUR/USD is trading on the downside, still capped by resistance at $1.3045/55. French current account deficit widened from 3.8B euro in Dec. to 5B euro in Jan. CPI in Italy and Germany came in line with forecasts. Greek GDP dropped by 5.7% in Q4 (initial reading: -6%, previous: -6.7%). Portugal’s economy contracted by 1.8% q/q in the last 3 months of 2013 declining for the 9th quarter in a row after losing 0.9% in Q3. GBP/USD extended losses to $1.4830 as British Jan. manufacturing production unexpectedly contracted by 1.5% m/m (cons: 0.0%; Dec.: revised down to +1.5%). Industrial production also came below expectations and declined by 1.2% m/m. Meanwhile, trade deficit narrowed from 8.7B to 8.2B. Watch the NIESR GDP estimate at 15:00 GMT. EUR/GBP jumped to 0.8775. EUR/CHF slid to 1.2330 after reaching 1.2390 on Friday. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-12/21919-march-12-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD: focus on retail sales The market’s expecting better Feb. US retail sales data – consensus forecast is +0.5% after +0.1% in Jan. The core indicator (excluding auto dealers and gasoline stations) are expecting to add 0.5% after increasing by 0.2% in the first month of the year. The reasons for optimism include improvement at the labor market (retailers took on almost 24K new employees last month) and stronger household finances which helped consumers adjust to a higher payroll tax. Rising home and stock prices also have a positive impact boosting household wealth and cushioning the economy against the effects of government spending cuts that are now taking hold. Good retail sales number will be positive for USD. Yet, some analysts are not that optimistic. Barclays recommends being cautious about downside risks in today’s retail sales data as the full impact of payroll tax hikes might not have been in January data. In addition, there was also talk last month that Wal-Mart had a sales slump in Feb. Friday. The data is due at 12:30 GMT. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-13/21939-usd-focus-retail-sales Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. March 13: European session EUR/USD remains in the same narrow trading range, but slipped to $1.3020. Euro is pressured by negative data releases. French NFP contracted more than expected, and CPI came out below forecast. Euro zone’s industrial production fell by 0.4% m/m in January (forecast: -0.1%; Dec.: +0.7%). Italy is set to release the results of the debt auction. GBP/USD is up by almost 70 pips from the day’s opening to $1.4970 after forming a hammer yesterday. Pound strengthens after 5 days of declines as its recent slump was excessive. EUR/GBP fell to 0.8700 from yesterday’s peak just below 0.8800 due to renewed strength in the sterling in combination with a soft momentum in the single currency. EUR/CHF keeps moving down to 1.2300. EUR/JPY slid from March highs at 126 to 124.80. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-13/21951-march-13-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/CHF: technical picture EUR/CHF is moving down for a third consecutive day. Euro has already depreciated to 1.2305 francs. For now the upside remains capped at 1.2390 (March high). The next support lies in the 1.2300/2285 area (38.2% Fibonacci from the recent rise) and then at 1.2255 (50% Fibo). A slide below will open the way for further losses. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-13/21956-eurchf-technical-picture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: GBP/USD: $1.4925, $1.5000; USD/CHF: 0.9450, 0.9500; AUD/JPY: 99.00; EUR/GBP: 0.8675, 0.8755; EUR/CHF: 1.2300, 1.2315, 1.2350. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-14/21960-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD: improving prospects AUD/USD jumped by 100 pips to $1.0380 as upbeat Australian employment data reduced expectations of the RBA rate cut. Number of people employed unexpectedly surged by 71.5K (forecast: 9.5K; prev.: 13.1K). Unemployment rate remained at 5.4%. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: It’s a very strong employment number, and somewhat surprising given the challenges the Australian employment market is facing. It illustrates the underlying strength in the economy. The market that was primarily short the Australian dollar is now unwinding. RBC Capital Markets: This seems likely to reinforce the RBA's confidence that sitting on their hands is the right stance. The technical picture is also improving. Aussie broke above 50% Fibonacci retracement from a recent decline. A fix above $1.0380 will be a strong bullish signal. Next tagets are $1.0480 and $1.0600. The key support lies at $1.0300. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-14/21964-audusd-improving-prospects Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. March 14: European session EUR/USD slid close to 2013 lows hitting $1.2924. Employment in the euro area fell in Q4 by 0.3% q/q and by 0.8% y/y. Jobless rate in Greece rose from 24.8% to 26%. According to ECB monthly bulletin, the central bank’s monetary policy will remain accommodative. There was also more optimistic news. Spanish long-term bond yield decreased at today’s debt auction. The nation’s economic ministry official said that Spain’s economy could improve due to growth in exports, reports Reuters. GBP/USD is consolidating in the narrow $1.4950/30 range. EUR/GBP slipped to 0.8655. USD/CHF strengthened to 0.9545 on the SNB comments, though there was nothing unexpected there. EUR/CHF edged lower to 1.2340 after the weak euro zone’s employment data. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-14/21972-march-14-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/CHF: positive prospects EUR/CHF strengthened to 1.2360 on SNB comments, but then eased back to 1.2330 following weak euro zone’s employment data. For now the upside remains capped by the 100-week EMA (1.2360). However, the current bearish move from 1.2390 is still seen as corrective as long as the pair holds above 1.2300/2285. In a long term the SNB looks ready to fight the franc’s appreciation. Analysts at BNP Paribas maintain their long position from 1.2300 with a target of 1.2800 and a stop below the 1.2000 peg. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-14/21972-march-14-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD: a short squeeze GBP/USD made yesterday the biggest advance in 7 months rising by more than 1%. Pound’s advance was probably the result of a short squeeze. According to Rabobank International, GBP was also driven up by the expiration of options with stops above $1.50. Moreover, sterling got support from somewhat unexpected side – the speculation that Qatar will invest in UK infrastructure projects boosting demand for the British currency. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will deliver the budget on March 20 and there’s a lot of talk of potential delay of some austerity measures. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the bank was not seeking a further depreciation in sterling and that the currency was now properly valued. Mizuho says that sterling could go to the $1.5150 area but still remains in an overall downward channel. ANZ regards the recent leg up as a good opportunity to sell. UBS, however, thinks that the BoE won’t change its inflation target next week, as some specialists believe, and expects stronger pound. Resistance lies at $1.5120, $1.5140, $1.5200. Support is at $1.5047, $1.5000, $1.4910. In our view, sterling will go for testing resistance. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-15/21978-gbpusd-short-squeeze Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. March 18: Asian session EUR/USD opened the week with a gap down at $1.2920 and is now testing the $1.2900 mark. Euro dropped on the shocking news from Cyprus: European finance ministers want Cypriots to pay up to 9.9% of their deposits in return for a 10 billion euro ($13.07 billion) aid package. Euro zone will publish its trade balance at 10:00 GMT (trade surplus is forecasted to narrow). Later in the day Bundesbank’s President Jens Weidmann will deliver a speech. Stocks and commodities fell sharply in Asia as demand for safe havens increased. USD/JPY opened with a gap down at 94.70 and keeps trading in this area. USD/CHF is up at 0.9440. The pair opened with a gap up, but is below Friday’s high of 0.9476. NZD/USD is fluctuating around $0.8230, below Friday’s high of $0.8280. AUD/USD rose to $1.0400. Australian new motor vehicle sales were unchanged din Feb., while the analysts expected 2.2% decline. Aussie fell versus yen, though, testing the levels below 98.00. GBP/USD slipped back below $1.5100. USD/CAD opened with a gap up and rebounded to 1.0240. Watch the foreign securities purchases data at 12:30 GMT. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-18/22003-march-18-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3000, $1.3055, $1.3060, $1.3100, $1.3190, $1.3200; GBP/USD: $1.4800, $1.4900, $1.5000, $1.5100, $1.5250; USD/JPY: 95.70, 96.05, 96.50, 97.00; AUD/USD: $1.0400, $1.0425, $1.0430. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-18/22009-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Cyprus bailout crisis: threat for the markets The fragile stability in euro zone was disturbed by the unexpected news from Cyprus: on Friday the EU finance ministers agreed a tax on Cypriot bank deposits in return for a 10 billion euro ($13.07 billion) aid package. Cyprus will impose a 6.75% tax on deposits of less than 100 000 euros and a 9.9% tax – above that amount. As compensation depositors are promised to receive bank shares. The atmosphere in Cyprus is tense: people rushed to banks withdraw money from their deposits after officials announced bailout terms. However, there was not enough money in the ATMs. On Monday and Tuesday Cypriot banks will be closed for an extended national holiday. Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades urged parties to vote for the haircuts saying that “the choice is between the catastrophic scenario of disorderly bankruptcy and the scenario of a painful but controlled management of the crisis.” Only a few weeks ago Anastasiades promised in his election campaign that depositors would be safe. Anastasiades’s Disy party doesn’t have a majority with only 20 seats in the 56-seat parliament, so he needs at least nine more votes to secure approval. Experts say that current arithmetic suggests 30 votes in favor and 26 against – Cypriot lawmakers will likely be frightened by the possibility of being thrown out of the euro area. However, the distribution of votes may change. At the same time, even if the parliament rejects the package, there could still be room for further negotiations. One is clear: it’s in the interests of the European authorities to bailout Cyprus or the crisis may get out of control. Yet, if Cypriot population will have to pay with bank deposits, this could create a precedent for other peripheral nations like Spain – a potential trigger of new wave of unrest. According to Moody’s, in a short run deposit tax will be negative for the both Cyprus and the rest of Europe, but in the longer term it will help to save the currency block. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-18/22015-cyprus-bailout-crisis-threat-markets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. March 18: European session EUR/USD rose to $1.2976 trying to close the gap between today’s opening in Asia ($1.2837) and Friday’s close in US ($1.3073). European data released today were sour: Italy posted trade deficit of 1.62B euro in Jan. (forecast: 2.11B euro surplus). Euro zone’s trade surplus narrowed to 9.0B euro (forecast: 10.4B). Cyprus is trying to come up with alternative plan of deposit tax shifting the burden from smaller to larger deposits. ECB’s Asmussen said levy imposed in Cyprus is unique. According to the policymaker, Cypriot government can change bail out terms if total sum of the measures remains the same. Cyprus insolvency could hit Ireland, Greece and Portugal. GBP/USD is trading steady above $1.5100 ahead of UK budget release on Wednesday. Euro is trying to close the gaps versus its other peers. EUR/GBP rose from 0.8530, the minimal level since mid-Feb. EUR/CHF is up by more than 40 pips from 1.2167. EUR/JPY went up to 123.00 from 121.62. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-18/22017-march-18-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. FX majors from top forecasters Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on Mar. 15. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-18/22020-fx-majors-top-forecasters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. March 19: Asian session EUR/USD is trading in a narrow $1.2935/65 range today. Yesterday euro closed in the positive territory, but the market sentiment still remains gloomy amid concerns about tax on deposits in Cyprus. Parliament is scheduled to vote on the levy during the European session today. As it was announced yesterday, Cypriot banks will be closed until Thursday. According to Cyprus state TV, deposit tax would exempt savers with deposits under 20 000 euros. Today also watch the Italian industrial production (9:00 GMT) and German and euro zone’s ZEW economic sentiment (10:00 GMT). Spain holds a 3-month bill auction today. ECB officials Mario Draghi, Jens Weidmann and Klaas Knot will deliver speeches. USD/JPY recovered to 95.60. Asian stocks rebounded from yesterday’s biggest drop in more than 7 months and demand for safe havens declines. The Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa steps down today and Haruhiko Kuroda will take his place tomorrow, so traders expect more easing from the central bank. AUD/USD is consolidating below $1.0400. The RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe defended a higher exchange rate and savings level, saying they helped stabilize the economy. In addition, the minutes of the regulator’s March 5 meeting said there are signs the economy is responding to low interest rates. NZD/USD is trying to hold above $0.8250. Kiwi weakened after Finance Minister Bill English said that it was over-valued, and may correct when the US economy picks up. According to English, interest rates in New Zealand may stay lower for longer. GBP/USD settled around $1.5100. Upside remains capped after the Friday’s test of $1.5175. Today watch the British inflation figures (9:30 GMT). USD/CHF rose a bit from 0.9460. USD/CAD sits at 1.0220. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-19/22024-march-19-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD didn’t manage to close the week’s opening gap yesterday. The pair peaked to $1.2995 on Monday after closing at $1.3073 on Friday. Today euro has been fluctuating around $1.2950. The single currency seems capped by $1.3000 – the bears still prevail and they didn’t let euro to recover much. RBS warns that “if EUR does not shrug-off this Cyprus event, its recent gradual decent in sentiment will start to turn more decisively negative.” If Cypriot Parliament approves the depositor-levy, EUR/USD may spike up, especially if there is a noticeable reduction in the burden on smaller depositors. There are also risks associated with German ZEW Economic sentiment (10:00 GMT), US building permits (12:30 GMT) and tomorrow’s FOMC and Fed's Bernanke press conference. If $1.3000 keeps limiting EUR on the upside, it will slide to $1.2680/60. Support lies at $1.2911, $1.2880 and $1.2965. Resistance is at $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3075 and $1.3120. The pair will form a bottom only in case of a rebound above the latter. Trading will likely be choppy today, and much will depend on German data. We favor the scenario of euro’s revisiting $1.2880. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-19/22028-eurusd-news-battlefield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD: short-term technical GBP/USD is trying to hold above support at $1.5080/70. If sterling dips below this area, the pair may retest $1.5000. At this point sterling may try to rebound, so one may try longs from $1.5000 targeting $1.5100/10. The loss of $1.5000 might mean decline to $1.4910 and possibly $1.4830. A pullback above last week’s high of $1.5176 is needed for the short-term uptrend to resume. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-19/22032-gbpusd-short-term-technical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. March 19: European session EUR/USD rebounded to $1.2940 after having touched $1.2915 earlier in the day. Europe printed mixed statistics today. Jan. Italian industrial production rose by 0.8% m/m vs. forecasted contraction. According to Bank of Spain, bad loans ratio rose from 10.44% to 10.78% in January. German March ZEW sentiment improved to 48.5 (forecast - 47.9), while euro zone’s plummeted to 33.4 (forecast - 43.7). Market is waiting for the news from Cyprus – parliament will vote on deposit tax in the coming hours (after 16:00 GMT). Some sources inform that the parliament is likely to reject the plan, at least in its current form. According to unnamed government source, deposits below 20K euro won’t be subjected to tax. GBP/USD rose to $1.5135 after UK consumer prices rose 2.8% on a yearly basis in Feb. (previous: 2.7%), but then retreated down by 20 pips. The core CPI rose by 2.3% matching the previous reading. Producer prices (PPI Input) added 3.2% (forecast: 1.7%). Trading will likely remain volatile as the market’s awaiting the Bank of England’s inflation letter later today. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-19/22035-march-19-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/CHF: bullish view USD/CHF slipped below 0.9450 after having touched 0.9480 earlier in the European session. The pair remains in the upward channel despite the Friday’s spike lower. In our view, the greenback may resume the uptrend while the important support at 0.9380 holds (38.2% Fibo, Friday’s low). A break above 0.9495 (50% Fibo) would open the way to 0.9565 (March 14 high) and 0.9600 (61.8% Fibo). Chart. H4 USD/CHF Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-19/22045-usdchf-bullish-view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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