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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY holds below 98.50 ahead of G20

 

 

USD/JPY is consolidating in the 98.30/97.60 area after two days of growth. As of writing, the pair hovers slightly above 98.00. Demand for the yen increased after data showed Japanese domestic investors sold foreign bonds, raising doubt on whether monetary stimulus will continue to weaken the currency.

 

Mizuho Securities: The key to further yen weakness is Japanese investors’ willingness to buy overseas assets.

 

Investors will be eyeing the G20 meeting headlines that may bring some comments on the aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank expect a dip into the 97.40/96.00 area. According to them, a break above 98.70 is needed in order to reassert upside pressure towards 99.70/100.00.

 

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY holds below 98.50 ahead of G20

 

 

EUR/USD lost about 150 pips yesterday completely paring the advance maid on Tuesday. Today the bulls and bears are fighting their battle around $1.3050.

 

Resistance: $1.3065 (50-day MA), $1.3115 (38.3% Fibo), $1.3150 (100-day MA; top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud), $1.3200 (Apr. 16 and 17 highs).

 

Support: $1.3020, $1.3000, $1.2970 (23.6% Fibo), $1.2910 (200-day MA).

 

Analysts at SEB Bank say that until EUR/USD makes a clear break above $1.3225/30 or below $1.2985, the situation will remain uncertain. OCBC Bank says EUR/USD will stay capped by $1.3200 and is looking forward to $1.2926. UBS revised EUR/USD forecast from neutral to bearish. Societe Generale believes that EUR/USD can move to $1.20.

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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April 22: Asian session

 

USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 99.80, but then slid by about 20 pips. Yen weakened as the G20 didn’t oppose the Bank of Japan’s excessive monetary stimulus. The BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he was emboldened to press ahead with a campaign to defeat deflation.

 

AUD/USD tried to rise from the day’s minimum below $1.0270, but didn’t manage to hold above $1.0300. NZD/USD rose from $0.8400 to $0.8460, but then eased down to $0.8430.

 

EUR/USD is trading sideways in the $1.3080/50 range. Euro opened the week with a gap up, but then retraced lower and filled it. A piece of good news from Italy: on Saturday the Italian parliament re-elected president Napolitano to serve a second term in an attempt to resolve the political crisis left by February's inconclusive election. ECB Nowotny also supported the euro by saying it was too early for the regulator to consider a rate cut.

 

GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.5200/45 range. USD/CAD is trading around 1.0250/60. USD/CHF is trading a bit on the upside, around 0.9330.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3095, $1.3100, $1.3110, $1.3120;

GBP/USD: $1.5300;

USD/JPY: 98.25, 98.50, 98.55, 99.25, 99.50, 100.00, 100.50;

USD/CAD 1.0175, 1.0230;

AUD/USD: $1.0205, $1.0350, $1.0400, $1.0410, $1.0510;

NZD/USD: $0.8400;

EUR/GBP: 0.8525.

 

 

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EUR/USD: wave analysis

 

 

Monthly. We assume that the market has finished the wave B of the rising А-В-С zigzag. Wave B represents a triple three. For now the pair keeps forming wave [2] of C.

 

Chart. Monthly EUR/USD

 

Daily. On D1 one may see in detail the impulse wave [1] and the corrective wave [2]. Wave [2] is forming a zigzag. The waves (a) and (B) of [2] are completed, so now we are witnessing the beginning of the wave © of [2]. We’ll likely see a strong bearish market soon.

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

H4. Wave (B) represents a flat.

 

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

H1. The pair might have finished forming the wave [2] – in this case there will be a strong decline in the wave [3]. There’s some chance that the wave [2] will continue enfolding, but in any case the market shouldn’t rise above 1.32 – the beginning of the wave [1]. Sell EUR/USD either on the end of the wave [2] with stop at the beginning of wave [1], or at the end of wave [1] – with stop loss at the same level (breakout entry).

 

Chart. H1 EUR/USD

 

By Roman Petuchov

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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April :23 Asian session

 

Demand for refuge assets increased as a private report signaled a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing, underscoring concern the largest Asian economy is faltering. China’s HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for April came at 50.5 (forecast: 51.4).

 

USD/JPY slid below 99.00. AUD/USD fell to the downtrend support line at $1.0220. NZD/USD is consolidating around $0.8400.

 

EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range in the Asian session. As of writing, euro is trading at $1.3050. Yesterday the Italian president Napolitano threatened to resign if the politicians further fail to meet their responsibilities on reforms. Traders are looking forward to euro zone’s PMI figures later in the day in order to understand further direction of the pair.

 

GBP/USD slipped from $1.5300 to $1.5260. This week markets are looking forward to UK GDP release on Thursday which may show that the country avoided a triple-dip recession. USD/CHF rose to 0.9360. USD/CAD strengthened to 1.0270.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY holds below 98.50 ahead of G20

 

 

On Tuesday AUD/USD dropped by 60 pips and tested a fresh 6-week low of 1.0220, pressured by the weak Chinese manufacturing PMI. According to specialists at Macquarie Bank, today’s figures showed there is no sustained recovery in China, what is a reflection of a weaker global growth. RBC sees the market gradually pricing in a further RBA rate cut.

 

From a technical viewpoint, the picture remains bearish after last Monday’s sharp drop. Today Aussie slipped below the daily Ichmoku and is testing new lows. Key support is seen at $.0200. Resistance lies at $1.0300, $1.0350 and $1.0400.

 

Westpac: AUD/USD looks set to probe 1.0150/1.0200 this week. In a longer term we continue to favor buying on dips.

 

Tomorrow watch the Australian CPI.

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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April 24: Asian session

 

 

 

 

USD/JPY is fluctuating around 99.50. Yen swayed between gains and losses as investors speculated whether comments from the Bank of Japan this week can weaken it to 100 per dollar.

 

AUD/USD is in the $1.0250 area, trying to hold above the support line from 2012 low. Aussie slid as data showed Australian inflation came below the forecast, at 0.4% vs. 0.7% expected. NZD/USD keeps moving sideways in the $0.8400 zone. Today kiwi jumped by more than 60 pips after the RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said growth has picked up. The central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.5% disappointing some traders looking forward to a cut.

 

EUR/USD is trading sideways around the $1.3000 mark after having tested $1.2970 yesterday. Euro came under pressure as the weak German manufacturing PMI increased ECB rate cut expectations. Today’s main report will be the German IFO at 8:00 GMT. Italian president is expected to announce decision on new government today.

 

GBP/USD is consolidating at $1.5240.The market is waiting for the UK Q1 GDP on Thursday. The BOE announced that it will extend funding and lending scheme (FLS) drawdown period by 1 year until Jan 2015. USD/CAD holds at 1.0260 despite the yesterday's strong Canadian retail sales figures. USD/CHF is trading above 0.9450 after adding more than 100 pips yesterday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3000, $1.3010

GBP/USD: $1.5400, $1.5450

USD/JPY: 98.10,98.50,99.00,99.60,100.00

AUD/USD: $1.0200

EUR/GBP: 0.8500,0.8560,0.8620

EUR/CHF: 1.2150

EUR/JPY 130.00

AUD/NZD 1.2100

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD soared on UK GDP

 

 

GBP/USD has jumped to a 2-month high of $1.5445 as figures showed UK avoided a triple-dip recession. Q1 GDP rose by 0.3% q/q (forecast: +0.1%, Q4: -0.3%).

 

As can be seen from the daily chart, cable broke above 38.2% Fibonacci, but was capped by the sell orders clustered at $1.5450. Rise above this resistance will pave the ground to $1.5500 (top of the daily Ichimoku). Move above $1.5500 would be a strong buying signal and open the way for bulls.

 

There is a slight MACD divergence on the daily chart. Support is seen at $1.5400, $1.5300 and $1.5270.

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY: waiting for the BoJ

 

USD/JPY is trading in the negative territory on Thursday. The pair sits at 99.15 after having challenged the 99.00 support.

 

All eyes are now on the Japanese inflation figures to be released at 23:30 GMT. According to consensus forecasts, Japanese deflation persists. Tomorrow the BoJ will announce its monthly monetary policy decision. Analysts at BBH and Nomura expect no change in policy, but forecast the regulator to lift its inflation forecasts order to show the 2% inflation target is achievable.

 

HSBC: Buy USD/JPY at 99.50 with a target of 101.75 and a stop at 97.60.

Morgan Stanley: USD/JPY will rise to 105.00 after a dip to 96.00.

 

Support: 99.00, 98.50, 98.00, 96.70

Resistance: 100.00, 101.43, 105.50

 

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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April 26: Asian session

 

 

 

USD/JPY eased to 98.20 as the BoJ left its monetary policy on hold in line with expectations. The regulator maintained its plan to boost money supply. Meanwhile, Japan’s deflation continued on display in CPI figures, with March National CPI at -0.9% y/y (vs. -0.8% expected).

 

The most expected event on today’s agenda will be the US advance Q1 GDP at 12:30 GMT (forecast: +3.1% q/q, Q4: +0.4%). Yesterday’s data cheered up the markets: US unemployment claims came below expectations, easing concerns about labor market deterioration.

 

AUD/USD is trading above $1.0300. NZD/USD rose to 0.8520. EUR/USD continues a choppy trade around $1.3020. GBP/USD is trading a bit below the yesterday’s two-month high of $1.5480. USD/CAD is consolidating at 1.0200 after yesterday’s sharp drop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

USD/JPY: 97.50, 98.00, 99.00, 99.10, 99.25, 99.50, 99.75, 100.00, 102.00

EUR/USD: $1.2800, $1.2880, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3130, $1.3135,

GBP/USD: $1.5160, $1.5300

AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0235, $1.0250, $1.0330, $1.0400,

EUR/CHF: 1.2210, 1.2230

EUR/GBP: 0.8480, 0.8500, 0.8545

NZD/JPY: 82.50

 

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EUR/USD: trading US GDP

 

EUR/USD spent the week in a sideways $1.3085/2950 channel after having formed a “shooting star” on the previous week. Current technical picture reflects traders’ uncertainty. US GDP release at 12:30 GMT could give some direction for the pair. According to consensus forecast, the largest world economy rose by 3.1% in Q1. In Q4 2012 GDP growth was only at 0.4%.

 

Growth above forecast could pull EUR/USD lower: increased possibility of QE dampening would raise demand for the greenback. A break below $1.2950 would be a selling signal with an initial target of $1.2750. Slide below this support would confirm a “head-and-shoulders” formation on a weekly chart.

 

In contrast, if GDP fails to meet market expectations, we expect a rise at least to $1.3200. Break of this resistance will negate the current bearish expectations of the market.

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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April 29: Asian session

 

 

 

 

USD/JPY slipped to 97.35 amid thin markets with Japan and China closed for a holiday, but later recovered to 97.80.

 

AUD/USD soared from $1.0275 to $1.0335. Aussie was supported by Australia PM Gillard's comments about future current account surplus. NZD/USD rose to $0.8530. Markets are looking forward to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

 

EUR/USD opened the week with a gap up and strengthened to $1.3080 on the news about Italian new government formation. Italian 10-year bond yields fell below 4%. GBP/USD touched a fresh 10-week high at $1.5525. USD/CAD dropped to 1.0140.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

USD/JPY: 97.50, 98.00, 99.00, 99.10, 99.25, 99.50, 99.75, 100.00, 102.00

EUR/USD: $1.2800, $1.2880, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3130, $1.3135,

GBP/USD: $1.5160, $1.5300

AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0235, $1.0250, $1.0330, $1.0400,

EUR/CHF: 1.2210, 1.2230

EUR/GBP: 0.8480, 0.8500, 0.8545

NZD/JPY: 82.50

 

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April 30: Asian session

 

 

 

 

USD/JPY remains below the 98.00 mark. Yen is trading higher after a bunch of mixed economic data from Japan. Unemployment declined, household spending increased and manufacturing PMI came at 51.1. On the other hand, industrial production increased below forecast and retail sales contracted.

 

Risk appetite is up amid speculation the US will maintain stimulus and the ECB will cut interest rates. Demand for the greenback remains subdued. AUD/USD touched a fresh two-week high of $1.0375. NZD/USD holds at a two-week high of 0.8570.

 

EUR/USD rose above $1.3115. Yesterday euro closed a bit above the $1.3100 mark. GBP/USD is hovering around $1.5500 after having touched a fresh 10-week high of $1.5545 on Monday. USD/CAD is holding slightly above 1.0100.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

USD/JPY: 97.50, 97.95, 98.00, 98.20, 98.35, 98.50, 99.00

EUR/USD: $1.2900, $1.3050, $1.3090, $1.3095, $1.3100, $1.3250

USD/CHF: 0.9425

AUD/USD: $1.0260, $1.0290, $1.0330, $1.0350, $1.0400

EUR/GBP: 0.8475

 

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USD/JPY extends losses

 

 

 

USD/JPY stalled into bids at 97.40 after having extended its 4-day decline from the 100.00 resistance. Yen remains strong ahead of the tomorrow’s Fed meeting and mixed Japanese figures, released today.

 

UBS: The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Initial resistance is at 98.93 ahead of the psychological 100.00.

 

Commerzbank: Dips lower should find support at 96.20, 95.70/55 ahead of key trend line support at 95.00. In a short term sell on a bounce to 98.55 with a very tight protective stop at 98.85 and a target at 95.55.

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD remains below $1.0400

 

 

 

AUD/USD returned to $1.0340 after having touched $1.0370 earlier in the day. Aussie failed to rebound above 38.2% Fibonacci from the recent drop on negative Chinese figures. Tomorrow watch the Chinese manufacturing PMI.

 

We will remain bearish below the $1.0400 resistance. The next targets lie at $1.0215/05 and $1.0115. Rebound above $1.0400 would open the way for further recovery to $1.0500.

 

Analysts at NAB emphasize that is no barrier to further RBA monetary policy easing in months ahead. They expect a rate cut in June, but also don’t rule it out in May. Commerzbank targets $0.9845 (200-week MA and the 2011-2013 support) in a longer term.

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 1: Asian session

 

 

 

Demand for the greenback remains low. Today the investors will be focused on the FOMC meeting at 18:00 GMT. Also pay attention to the ADP employment and ISM manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. Traders must be careful, though: closed European and Chinese banks will keep the market volumes low.

 

USD/JPY rebounded to 97.40 after having tested 97.00 earlier in the day. AUD/USD is trading at $1.0360 after having touched $1.0390 yesterday. Chinese manufacturing PMI came a bit below the forecast, but holds above 50. NZD/USD is trading at $0.8570.

 

EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.3160/80 range. GBP/USD is trading at $1.5540. USD/CAD slipped below the 1.0100 mark.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have a profitable trade with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-05-01/22647-may-1-asian-session

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

USD/JPY: 96.30, 97.00, 98.00, 98.20, 98.50, 99.00, 99.50, 100

EUR/USD: $1.2950, $1.2955, $1.3100, $1.3150

AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0325, $1.0350, $1.0410

EUR/GBP: 0.8425, 0.8475

 

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Have a profitable trade with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-22/22586-key-options-expiring-today

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fbsana.png

 

 

 

 

EUR/USD: wave analysis

 

 

 

Monthly. We assume that the market has finished the wave B of the rising А-В-С zigzag. Wave B represents a triple three [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z]. For now the pair keeps forming wave [2] of C.

 

Chart. Monthly EUR/USD

 

 

Daily. Wave (B) is assumedly forming an a-b-c zigzag. The market is now forming a correction wave b of this zigzag

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

Written by Roman Petuchov

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have a profitable trade with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-05-01/22649-eurusd-wave-analysis

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 2: market overview

 

 

US dollar continues the rebound after the yesterday’s FOMC meeting. The Fed left the rate at a record low range of 0-0.25% to support the economic recovery. FOMC also decided to maintain bond purchases at $85 billion per month and signaled it is prepared to either "increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes".

 

EUR/USD failed to hold recent gains and slipped back to $1.3150 after having touched $1.3240 yesterday. Key risk event of the day is the ECB monetary policy decision (11:45 GMT). More than a half of economists surveyed by Bloomberg now expect the ECB to cut rates to a record low of 0.50%.

 

GBP/USD is consolidating at $1.5550 before a report to show UK construction shrank at a slower pace in April. Yesterday cable tested a fresh 10-week high at $1.5600. USD/CAD is trading below 1.0100.

 

AUD/USD dropped to $1.0225. Chinese HSBC final manufacturing PMI came a bit below the forecast, but holds above 50. NZD/USD slipped below 0.8500. USD/JPY keeps declining for a 6th consecutive day and is trading at 97.20.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have a profitable trade with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-05-02/22670-may-2-market-overview

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fbsana.png

asian1.jpg

 

 

 

 

May 6: Asian session

 

 

 

USD/JPY is trading slightly above 99.00 following a two-day recovery. The greenback was driven up by higher-than expected US NFP released on Friday (165K in April vs. forecasted 146K, March reading was revised up to 138K). On Monday Japanese banks are closed for a holiday.

 

AUD/USD opened the week with a gap down and slipped back below $1.0300. Traders were disappointed by a drop in Australian retail sales. NZD/USD is trading at $0.8545.

 

EUR/USD holds at $1.3120. The single currency remains surprisingly resilient despite the last week’s ECB rate cut and strong US NFP. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak today at 13:00 GMT.

 

GBP/USD holds around the 10-week high of $1.5580. British banks are closed for a holiday. USD/CAD trades at 1.0070. Watch the Canadian building permits and Ivey PMI later in the day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have a profitable trade with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-05-06/22672-may-6-asian-session

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