internationallove Posted March 29, 2013 Author Share Posted March 29, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. March 29: Asian session Trade was subdued with many markets closed for Easter holidays. Data released in the US yesterday wasn’t as good as expected (unemployment claims rose; Q4 GDP growth was revised up from 0.4% vs. the forecast of 0.5%; Chicago PMI declined). Risk sentiment also worsened as North Korea put its missile units on standby to attack US military bases in South Korea and the Pacific. AUD/USD is at $1.0425 after testing levels below $1.0400 yesterday. NZD/USD is consolidating around $0.8360. EUR/USD holds at $1.2820. Yesterday euro managed to recover from the $1.2750 low, but was capped at $1.2845. Dollar came under pressure following discouraging US data. Cypriot problems keep weighing on the market sentiment, but, despite all the worries, yesterday the banks reopened with no signs of panic. The situation seems to be stable for now. According to Cypriot officials, capital controls may last a month. Italian political stalemate is coming back into the limelight: Bersani admitted his failure to form a coalition because of the “unacceptable preconditions from other parties”. France will release consumer spending data today, while Italy – preliminary CPI. USD/JPY declined to 94.00. All in all, yen’s going to show another month of losses. Japan’s consumer prices fell by 0.7% in Feb. from a year earlier (the biggest drop since August 2010), compared with a 0.3% decline in the previous period. Core consumer prices, excluding fresh food, declined by 0.3%, failing to rise for a 10th month in a row. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is expected to boost monetary stimulus measures at a policy meeting next week to fight deflation. GBP/USD recovered from the lows below $1.5100, but growth was capped at $1.5200. USD/CAD remains range bound around 1.0160. Canadian January GDP rose by 0.2% (forecast: +0.1%; Dec.: -0.2%). USD/CHF is once again below 0.9500. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-29/22239-march-29-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 29, 2013 Author Share Posted March 29, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD got support at $1.2750 and recovered yesterday on the back of better than expected German retail sales figures for the month of Feb., though was capped by resistance around March 19 low at $1.2843. Today euro’s trading in the $1.2800 area. Euro seems to be losing positive momentum on H1. H4 still looks bearish as well as the daily chart. All in all, technical picture has significantly worsened this week. A break below $1.2790 might bring the price to $1.2730. On the upside, sell in case of a recovery to $1.2900/05. A close below $1.2875 (200-day MA, 50% Fibo) will mean more declined ahead with target at $1.2680/60 (bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, 61.8% Fibo, November low). Most markets are closed in observance of Good Friday holiday. Traders will watch another meeting between the Italian center-left leader, Pier Luigi Bersani, and the President Giorgio Napolitano (they met yesterday, but with no results). Later today (12:30 GMT) the US will release personal income and spending figures. Stronger numbers should be positive for USD. Support lies at $1.2790, $1.2750, $1.2730 and $1.2680, while resistance is at $1.2867, $1.2875 and $1.2900. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-29/22241-eurusd-news-battlefield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 29, 2013 Author Share Posted March 29, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: analysts are long-term bearish According to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg calls for the euro to reach $1.29 by year-end before depreciating to $1.27 by the end of 2014. Analysts at Morgan Stanley think that EUR/USD will fall to $1.2600 next year and then slide to $1.1900, the minimal level since June 2010, as a bailout for Cyprus raises the threat of further euro-zone contagion. Strategists at Scotiabank lowered year-end EUR/USD forecast to $1.2500. In their view, the recent developments in Cyprus expose the political vulnerability of the euro area in times of financial turmoil, enhanced by the lack of a banking union. Deutsche Bank is very disappointed with Europe and is bearish on EUR/USD targeting $1.2000. The bank’s reasons are the euro zone’s wrong response to Cyprus problems, the rising possibility of the second general election in Italy and weak economy of the currency union. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-29/22249-eurusd-analysts-are-long-term-bearish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 29, 2013 Author Share Posted March 29, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/CAD: trading loonie USD/CAD is consolidating in 1.0180/50 area after sliding from last week’s maximum at 1.0280. Support is at 1.0150, 1.0050 and 1.0000, while resistance is at of 1.0220, 1.0250 and 1.0315. Loonie has paused near the strongest level in a month. Canadian economy grew a higher-than-expected 0.2% in Jan. following the weakest two quarters since the 2008/09 recession, thanks to solid manufacturing and mining and an end to a National Hockey League work stoppage. Commodities advanced and consumer prices climbed 1.2% last month, the biggest gain since Jan. 1991. Bank of Montreal: “We had a couple upside surprises this week on the Canadian data, so a mild positive for the currency, but it’s only two data points and sort of backward looking ones. We’ll have to see some more data points in the weeks ahead to see if we’re having a real uptick on the Canadian front.” The economic calendar is bare next week until Friday, when payroll figures will be released in Canada and the United States. Analysts said any movement in the currency before then will take its cue from overseas. RBC: “Everyone is going to be tuned into what’s going on in Europe and Cyprus and any further developments. Canada’s rebound in Jan. bodes well for quarterly growth but the pace is still looking fairly moderate, sub-potential.” Chart. Daily USD/CAD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-29/22252-usdcad-trading-loonie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Credit Agricole: this week for FX majors Credit Agricole points out that the main factors to watch this week are the news from the euro zone’s periphery, US macroeconomic data and central bank announcements in Europe and Japan. The specialists expect USD to strengthen as a safe haven and due to a capital inflow to the US. The focus will be on Friday’s NFP release (non-farm payrolls). Credit Agricole expects American labor market conditions to keep on stabilizing. As for EUR, it will remain under pressure. Weakening growth and inflation expectations for the euro area would allow the ECB President Draghi to sound more dovish on Thursday. Downside for GBP will be limited as the bank of England is unlikely to increase quantitative easing – the majority of the MPC members think that such step will provoke even higher inflation. Finally, USD/JPY will be well-supported, according to Credit Agricole, as the Bank of Japan won’t disappoint the expectations for more aggressive policy action and US growth prospects seem quite encouraging. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-01/22263-credit-agricole-week-fx-majors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD has a chance for recovery GBP/USD is trying to rise above $1.5200. On the monthly chart it formed a hammer candle – bullish signal – and closed above the 2013 downtrend resistance line. Analysts at BBH think that it’s premature to abandon the idea of the pair’s forming an ‘inverted head and shoulders’ pattern with the neckline at $1.5200. The specialists note that both RSI and MACD are still trending higher and sterling held above the 20-day MA. On H4 sterling’s supported by the Ichimoku Cloud. Resistance lies at $1.5218, $1.5260 and $1.5300. Support is at $1.5185 (23.6% Fibo), $1.5115 and $1.5090. This week watch for UK manufacturing and services PMI and the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday (traders expect the benchmark interest rate and the asset purchase program to remain unchanged). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-01/22264-gbpusd-has-chance-recovery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. FX majors from top forecasters Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on Mar. 29. Source: FX Week Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-01/22268-fx-majors-top-forecasters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/JPY: technical picture EUR/JPY looks vulnerable on the downside. The pair is testing support at 120.50 (61.8% Fibo expansion. A close below this level might bring euro down to 118.70 (Feb. low) and 117.00 (100% expansion). Further downside targets lie at 116.40/00 (55-month MA, bottom of the monthly Ichimoku Cloud), 114.30 (200-week MA) and 111.45 (161.8% expansion, Mar. 2012 high). The medium-term outlook will remain positive as long as EUR/JPY is trading above 118.70. Both euro and yen are affected by negative fundamental factors. The Bank of Japan will be the critical driver for the yen for the week. If it fails to deliver as much easing as the market expects, EUR/JPY may fall to the support levels mentioned above – Westpac favors this scenario and is selling the pair. If the Bank of Japan doesn’t disappoint, EUR/JPY will continue consolidating within a broad range. Resistance lies at 122.00, 124.40, 126.00 and 127.70. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-01/22271-eurjpy-technical-picture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. April 2: Asian session EUR/USD is trading 20 pips lower from the daily high of $1.2880. Market focus is shifting from Cyprus to Italy, where the political stalemate persists and is becoming more and more dangerous. Spain also attracted investors’ attention after the government revised down its 2013 GDP forecast from an initial -0.5% to -1.0% yesterday. Today there are a lot of important releases on the agenda: German preliminary CPI, Spanish unemployment change and manufacturing PMI, Italian and euro area manufacturing PM and euro area unemployment rate. USD/JPY slid below 93.00 touching 92.56. US dollar weakened before data this week forecast to show the recovery in the US job market isn’t fast enough to prompt the Fed to reduce monetary stimulus. GBP/USD slipped to $1.5230 after having touched $1.5260 earlier in the session. Watch the British manufacturing PMI (8:30 GMT) and net lending to individuals. USD/CHF is trying to hold above 0.9450. USD/CAD declined to 1.0150, but remains sideways in the 1.0180/40 range. AUD/USD rose to $1.0480 before easing a bit to $1.0455. Aussie strengthened as the Reserve Bank of Australian didn’t lower interest rates and signaled that existing stimulus is working. NZD/USD tested the levels above $0.8400. Kiwi’s feeling quite well with ANZ commodity prices. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-02/22275-april-2-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2600, $1.2675, $1.2875; GBP/USD: $1.4800; USD/JPY: 92.50, 94.35, 94.50, 95.00, 96.75; AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0350, $1.0420; EUR/CHF: 1.2260. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-02/22277-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD has been trading in a volatile fashion in the $1.2880/40 area since yesterday’s US session. So far, the economic data released in the euro area was mixed. The number of unemployed people in Spain fell by 5.0K, while economists expected a 30.2K increase. Spanish March manufacturing PMI, however, came at 44.2 vs. the forecast of 46.2. Italian manufacturing PMI also came at 44.5 vs. the forecast of 45.4. The euro zone’s unemployment rate released at 09:00 GMT is projected to reach new record high of 12%. Euro will remain under pressure ahead of the ECB’s meeting on Thursday. No change in policy’s expected, but the President Mario Draghi may sound more cautious and dovish. The overall bearish trend’s in place. Short-term outlook will remain negative as long as euro stays below $1.2900. Resistance lies at $1.2880 (200-day MA), 1.2890 (Mar. 26 high), $1.2900 and $1.2935. Support is found at $1.2815, $1.2750, $1.2730 and finally $1.2680 (61.8% Fibo). Chart. H4 EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-02/22283-eurusd-news-battlefield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD strengthened after the RBA AUD/USD rose to $1.0480 today and then consolidated around $1.0460. As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged, saying that global downside risks appear to have eased and previous rate cuts are stimulating the economy. TD Securities thinks that the RBS will stay on hold for the next couple of meetings. The central bank will watch for the CPI report (April 24). BNZ points out that we may see a kind of safe-haven flow into Aussie dollars whenever offshore markets descend into turmoil. UBS is bullish on Aussie saying that a break above resistance at $1.0497 will bring AUD/USD to $1.0600, while support lies at $1.0385 and $1.0350. One may try longs around the trend line support from the beginning of March around $1.0410. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-02/22289-audusd-strengthened-after-rba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 3, 2013 Author Share Posted April 3, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. April 3: Asian session EUR/USD holds at $1.2800 following yesterday’s decline from $1.2880. News about the resignation of Cyprus finance minister pressured the euro. Yesterday both Spain and Italy released weak manufacturing PMIs. Unemployment in the euro area holds at 12%. Today watch the CPI flash estimate a 9:00 GMT. The most expected event this week is the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. USD/JPY got support at 92.55 yesterday and recovered to 93.50. Yen weakened as the Bank of Japan begins a 2-day meeting gathering at which it’s expected to increase monthly bond purchases to fight deflation. AUD/USD keeps moving sideways around $1.0460. The pair spent Asian session in a narrow range. Aussie was supported by Australia’s a smaller-than-expected trade deficit (-0.18B vs. -1.00B Australian dollars). HIA new private home sales came in at a poor reading of -5.3% m/m (vs. +4.2% prior). Glenn Stevens was appointed to an extra 3-year term as the RBA Governor. NZD/USD is trading above $0.8400 after peaking to $0.8445 yesterday. GBP/USD sits right below $1.5100 following yesterday’s sharp drop from $1.5260. Watch the UK construction PMI at 8:30 GMT. The BoE policy meeting is scheduled for tomorrow. USD/CHF is still consolidating around 0.9500. USD/CAD holds at 1.0145. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-03/22313-april-3-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 3, 2013 Author Share Posted April 3, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2750, $1.2780, $1.2850, $1.2860, $1.2900, $1.2995; GBP/USD: $1.4800, $1.5000; USD/JPY: 93.00, 93.50, 93.70, 94.00, 95.00, 96.004; AUD/USD: $1.0450; EUR/CHF: 1.2400; EUR/JPY: 120.70, 121.00. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-03/22317-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 3, 2013 Author Share Posted April 3, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD capped below $1.0480 On Wednesday AUD/USD remains capped below $1.0470. The pair is holding above the daily Ichimoku and has once again approached the 2011-2012 resistance trend line. Given the neutral RBA comments on yesterday's meeting and recent upbeat economic releases, we expect the pair to resume growth. It makes sense to buy Aussie on a break above $1.0500, targeting $1.0600 and a stop at $1.0450. The next strong supportlies at $1.0400/0390 and $1.0350. Analysts at NAB pay attention to the positive trade balance figures, released today: “Australia’s trade deficit came in much lower than expected in February, thanks to assistance both from a 3% lift in exports and a 1% decline in imports. This is the best monthly trade balance result since December 2011”. Tomorrow watch the buiding approvals and retail sales data. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-03/22320-audusd-capped-below-10480 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 3, 2013 Author Share Posted April 3, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/CHF: short-term prospects USD/CHF has formed a ‘shooting star’ on H4. If the pair slips below 0.9480 entering the Ichimoku Cloud, we’d sell targeting 0.9450 and possibly 0.9420 (200-day MA) where the greenback might find some support, so traders are to consider going long in line with the major uptrend. On the upside USD/CHF is capped by the top of the weekly Cloud (0.9515) and last week’s high (0.9555). If US dollar returns to this area, the resistance would probably bring another decline. Analysts at Commerzbank say that they will maintain general upside bias as long as USD/CHF is trading above 0.9350 (last week’s low). Chart. H4 USD/CHF Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-03/22327-usdchf-short-term-prospects Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 3, 2013 Author Share Posted April 3, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD is ready for the 5th wave (Nomura) Analysts at Nomura point out that AUD/USD has completed 4 waves with good proportions: wave 3 ended at 161.8% Fibo expansion from the wave 1. In their view, Aussie now starts the fifth wave up with targets between $1.0570 and $1.0630. In their view, $1.0570 will offer strong resistance (Jan. double top). Key support is now at $1.0388/73. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-03/22330-audusd-ready-5th-wave-nomura Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 4, 2013 Author Share Posted April 4, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. April 4: Asian session EUR/USD slipped to $1.2830 ahead of today’s ECB policy meeting later in the day (11:45 GMT – interest rate announcement, 12:30 GMT – ECB press conference). Euro area monetary authorities are widely expected to soften their rhetoric following the Cyprus crisis. However, the possibility of a rate cut in April is low. Watch the service PMIs in Spain, Italy and the whole euro area (7:15-8:00 GMT). France and Spain are holding 10-year bond auctions today. USD/JPY jumped from 92.70 to 94.30. Yen fell as the Bank of Japan announced larger- than-expected monthly bond purchases. The central bank said it will buy 7 trillion yen ($74.3 billion) of bonds a month, exceeding the median 5.2 trillion yen predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. US dollar has broadly strengthened on the news. AUD/USD has once again spiked up to the levels just below $1.0500 and then slid to $1.0450. Aussie rose on better than expected data from Australia (retail sales rose by 1.3% vs. 0.3% expected; building approvals rose by 3.1% vs. 2.4% expected). Chinese markets are closed in observance of Tomb Sweeping Day. NZD/USD declined to $0.8400. GBP/USD slipped to $1.5100. Watch the BoE meeting at 11:00 GMT. USD/CHF is trading on the upside after sliding to 0.9450 yesterday. USD/CAD recovered to 1.0150. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-04/22334-april-4-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 4, 2013 Author Share Posted April 4, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: trading recommendations EUR/USD keeps trading sideways under the 200-day MA. The pair returned to the levels around $1.2830 after rising to $1.2865 yesterday. Commerzbank points out that as long as euro stays below the 200-day MA, the near-term outlook will remain negative ( and more broadly until EUR is below $1.3100/80) with $1.2680/60 in sight where the specialists expect some profit taking ahead of a slide to $1.2400 and then to $1.2042 (2012 low) in the longer term. Bank of America Merrill Lynch recommends going short at the current levels targeting $1.2660 and placing stop above $1.2890. BNP Paribas is encouraged by resilience of European financial markets (relatively low peripheral yields, gains in stocks) and recommends buying EUR/USD on the dips to $1.2700/1.2680. Resistance lies around $1.2850 (55-pe Chart. H4 EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-04/22346-eurusd-trading-recommendations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 4, 2013 Author Share Posted April 4, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/JPY surged on BoJ easing USD/JPY soared more than by 250 pips to 95.70 following the BoJ aggressive easing. The new BoJ Governor Kuroda didn’t disappoint the investors: USD/JPY bulls were inspired by the announcement even despite the fact, that easing was already priced in by the market. The regulator will buy 7 trillion yen ($74.3 billion) of bonds a month, exceeding the 5.2 trillion yen predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Our next medium-term targets lie at 96.15 and 96.70. However, given the today’s strong upward move, there is some space for a short-term correction. Watch the 96.00 resistance. Data from US (today’s Beranke speech, Friday’s NFP) can influence the dynamics of the pair: positive US sentiment will push the pair up further. Conversely, downbeat data can slow down the uptrend. Analysts at UBS expect USD/JPY to reach 100.00 by the end of 2013. In their view, the BoJ now “has a license to ease boldly in an attempt to hit the 2% target”. The more hard-hitting the target is, the bolder easing will follow. Commerzbank expects a rise to 99.70 (50% Fibo from the 2007- 2011 drop) and then 101.30/70 (the 1999 and 2005 lows). Chart. H4 USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-04/22349-usdjpy-surged-boj-easing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 4, 2013 Author Share Posted April 4, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD: daily update GBP/USD hit $1.5033 today before recovering to $1.5070 on better than expected services PMI data (52.4 vs. 51.4). The market’s looking forward to the results of the Bank of England’s meeting (11:00 GMT). Barclays Capital expects an uneventful meeting. The specialists underline that as the 2013 UK budget surprised the market by leaving the MPC’s central remit unchanged, the MPC members won’t change the current policy. Remember that March meeting minutes showed that some BoE’s policymakers worried that “further stimulus might also lead to an “unwarranted depreciation of sterling.” Note, though, that Governor King was pushing for restarting QE, so one can’t rule out negative GBP-risks. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Commerzbank hold GBP/USD shorts targeting $1.4330, $1.4767 and $1.4850 respectively. UBS is bearish on sterling as long as it stays below $1.5269 and recommends looking for a break under $1.5026 and slide to $1.4832. Support lies at $1.5050, $1.5026 (March 20 low) and $1.5000. Resistance is at $1.5145, $1.5185 and $1.5260. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-04/22355-gbpusd-daily-update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. April 5: Asian session USD/JPY reached new 3.5-year high at 97.19 before easing down to 96.33. Nikkei index of stocks climbed above the 13,000 mark for the first time since August 2008. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda played down concerns his unprecedented burst of monetary stimulus would create asset-price bubbles. AUD/USD is trading around $1.0420 after testing $1.0400 handle earlier today. Aussie has been sold on weak commodities and local share markets with the Hang-Seng index in Hong-Kong down more than 2.5%. NZD/USD is trading above $0.8400 after testing $0.8387 in Asia. EUR/USD trades sideways around the $1.2930 mark after yesterday’s 200 pips surge on Mario Draghi’s comments during the ECB press-conference. Draghi calmed the markets down by emphasizing that the Cyprus scenario is “no template” for future euro zone bail-outs. “Cyprus is no turning point in euro area policy,” said the ECB head. “I am absolutely sure that the chairman of the Eurogroup has been misunderstood.” He also pointed that Cyprus exit from the euro zone couldn’t resolve the structural economic problems in the block. Draghi revealed that the decision to keep interest rates unchanged was not unanimous for the second month in a row. Today euro zone will publish retail sales data, final Q4 GDP and German factory orders. GBP/USD is trading at $1.5230 following yesterday’s jump from $1.5030. Yesterday the Bank of England left QE at 375 bln pounds and interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.5%. Today watch the British Halifax HPI (7:00 GMT). MPC member Dale delivers a speech at 8:00 GMT. USD/CHF is fluctuating around 0.9400 after sliding from 0.9500 yesterday. USD/CAD recovered to 1.0130 after yesterday’s test of 1.0105. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-05/22358-april-5-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2920, $1.2950, $1.2955, $1.3000; GBP/USD: $1.4990, $1.5100, $1.5200; USD/JPY: 94.00, 95.00, 95.50, 96.00, 96.50; AUD/USD: $1.0400, $1.0510, $1.0525; USD/CAD: 1.0100, 1.0290; EUR/JPY: 123.50; EUR/AUD: 1.2550; EUR/GBP: 0.8550. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-05/22362-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: a change in trend? EUR/USD rose from the levels below $1.2750 yesterday and almost reached $1.2950 before easing down to $1.2900 today. UBS: “Yesterday’s sharp advance does not change the bearish theme and the resistance at $1.3048 should hold. Support is at $1.2746, a break below would expose $1.2662”. Commerzbank: “EUR/USD has broken above its 200-day MA and 3-month downtrend. It also charted a key day reversal so at this stage will go with the break higher and allow for a deeper retracement to $1.3050 and then to the $1.3111/80 band.” Support lies at $1.2900, $1.2885/80, $1.2850, $1.2800 and $1.2750. Resistance is at $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3050. Much will depend on US NFP data (12:30 GMT). Also pay attention to the euro zone’s retail sales figures at 9:00 GMT. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-05/22364-eurusd-change-trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. JPY is weakened by the BOJ The Bank of Japan announced new stimulus measures yesterday which will expand its balance sheet by about 15% in 2013. Such aggressive measures impressed the market and USD/JPY reached new 3.5-year high at 97.19. Famous billionaire investor George Soros described the scale of easing as dangerous and warned that it may lead to an avalanche of yen selling. Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ also underlines that the BOJ’s easing is now much more prominent than the Fed’s one. UBS says that those who started doubting about Kuroda made a big mistake. In their view, the new BOJ Governor will do absolutely everything to make inflation rise to 2% target. The specialists think that USD/JPY will advance to 100.00 and higher, so one should double the longs. In the near-term, the focus is on resistance at 97.79, ahead of 99.74, and support is at 92.57. Nomura says that taking into account weaker growth in the US, one should better open longs in AUD/JPY expecting the pair to rise from the current levels around 100.00 to 105.00 in 2-3 months. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-04-05/22366-jpy-weakened-boj Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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