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GBP/USD dominant bull trend remains in place – FXStreet


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, gives the technical outlook and key levels for GBP/USD, noting that 4H technical indicators remain in favour of the dominant bullish trend for the pair.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The GBP/USD pair fell down to 1.5700 ahead of the US macroeconomic releases, finally correcting lower after eight days of steady advances. Nevertheless, the pair found short term buying interest around the mentioned low, and slowly recovers ground.”

 

“Technically however, the 1 hour chart continues to favor the downside, as the 20 SMA stands above the current price whilst the indicators are barely bouncing from oversold levels.”

 

“In the 4 hours chart, the price hovers around a strongly bullish 20 SMA, whilst the RSI has corrected extreme overbought readings and hovers around 60, as the Momentum indicator turns flat above 100, suggesting the dominant bullish longer term trend remains firm in place.”

 

“Support levels: 1.5685 1.5650 1.5620”

 

“Resistance levels: 1.5730 1.5775 1.5810” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Australian rates might fall to 1.5% - Capital Economics


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Paul Dales, Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist, notes that the Australian budget lends support to the view that RBA might cut rates further to 1.5%.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasurer appear to be playing tennis with the economy. RBA Governor Stevens has already cut interest rates to 2.0% and hinted that he would like fiscal policy to provide more help. In last week’s Budget, Treasurer Hockey ignored this plea and left the economy facing a large fiscal squeeze. The ball is now back in the RBA’s court. Although we don’t expect any immediate action, the Budget lends some support to our view that rates may yet fall to 1.5%.”

 

“The minutes of the RBA’s May policy meeting, which will be released on Tuesday, are unlikely to hint that further interest rate cuts are in the pipeline. That said, it wasn’t until the month after it cut rates in February that the Bank suggested that another cut might be needed. As such, we would warn against reading too much into what might appear to be a relatively hawkish release.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/CAD in highs near 1.2070


 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is appreciating further on Friday vs. its Canadian counterpart, taking USD/CAD to session tops near 1.2070.

 

USD/CAD stronger despite US data

 

The pair reacted positively in spite of both US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization have missed estimates during April, contracting 0.3% inter-month and falling to 78.2%, respectively.

 

On the Canadian side, Manufacturing Shipments surprised to the upside expanding at a monthly pace of 2.9%, largely reverting February’s 1.7% contraction and surpassing the 0.1% gain forecasted.

 

USD/CAD levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is gaining 0.61% at 1.2056 with the next hurdle at 1.2100 (psychological level) ahead of 1.2107 (high May 12) and then 1.2200 (psychological level). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.1920 (low May 14) would open the door to 1.1900 (psychological level) and then 1.1836 (low Jan.12). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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US industrial production falls for fifth straight month – ING


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing the US industrial production data result, James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, notes that the yet another fall of 0.3% mom, posts a dim picture for the expected bounce in Q2 GDP.

 

Key Quotes

 

“US industrial production for April has fallen 0.3%MoM , worse than the 0.0% consensus forecast, but there was a three tenths of a percentage point upward revision to March so on levels terms output is in line with expectations.”

 

“In terms of the components, manufacturing output was flat on the month after rising 0.3% in March with auto production providing the main area of strength, rising 1.3%MoM. However, the bulk of the other components were either flat or down.”

 

“Utilities was surprisingly down 1.3% after a 5.4% drop last month. We had assumed a better outcome here given weather patterns have been returning to normal.”

 

“Rounding out the numbers was a 0.8% drop in mining, led by a 14.5% drop in oil and gas well drilling. This again highlights how the plunge in the oil prices hasn’t been universally positive for the US economy.”

 

“Taking this altogether, industrial output has now fallen for five straight months, which is not the sort of environment in which the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Certainly, the oil price effect has been in play and dented oil and gas output, but manufacturing has also been subdued.”

 

“With retail sales also looking fairly soft, expectations of a decent bounce in 2Q GDP after 1Q's weakness are starting to evaporate.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD key resistance at 1.1536 – SG


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Technical Analysts at Societe Generale, note that the target for the confirmed double bottom pattern seen in EUR/USD remains at 1.1536.

 

Key Quotes

 

“After rebounding from the multi-year upward channel at 1.05/1.04, EUR/USD is now closing in on its February high of 1.1536, also the 50% retracement from last December.”

 

“It is noteworthy that the pair confirmed a double bottom formation last month, and the projected target for the pattern will be met once the 1.1536 level is achieved.”

 

“However, the weekly RSI is now probing a trend line resistance and, more importantly, is closing in on the graphical level of 50%, suggesting limited upside. 1.1536 will be a key resistance.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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UK inflation expected at -0.1% yoy in May – Goldman Sachs


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Team at Goldman Sachs shares their forecast for UK inflation data to be released in the next week.

 

Key Quotes

 

“UK inflation data will also be released next week, on Tuesday. We expect annual CPI inflation to be -0.1%yoy in May. UK Public borrowing data will also be released next week, on Friday.”  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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WTI crude drops below USD 60/barrel


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures in the US fell below USD 60/barrel, after having failed to sustain gains above its 200-DMA located at USD 60.46. 

 

Prices had clocked a high of USD 60.85/barrel after a major advance by Islamic State militants in Iraq. However, supply concerns made sure the price gain did not last long enough. Prices came under pressure after Iran's Deputy Oil Minister Rokneddin Javadi told Reuters that OPEC was unlikely to cut output in June. 

 

Meanwhile, bearish long-term price forecasts from Investment bank Goldman Sachs also weighed over prices. 

 

WTI Crude Technical Levels

 

Futures currently trade at USD 59.68/barrel. The immediate support is seen at 59.58 (10-DMA), under which prices could drop to 58.73 (May 11 low). On the other hand, resistance is seen at 60.00, above which prices could re-test the daily high of 60.85. 

 

 

 

 

 

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German ZEW index drops in May, but economy outlook still positive – ING


 


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Carsten Brzeski of ING, reviews the German ZEW index data release and further comments on the economic outlook, maintaining a positive stance on German growth.


Key Quotes

 

“Today’s ZEW index shows that German investors have lost parts of their earlier optimism. In May, the headline index dropped for the second straight month to 41.9, from 53.3 in April. This was the strongest monthly drop since August last year. At the same time, the current assessment component dropped for the first time since October last year and stands now at 65.7, from 70.2 in April. Despite today’s drop, both components remain far above their historical averages.”

 

“In our view, there are still very few arguments in favour of changing our positive take on the German economy. In fact, even if the external tailwinds have subsided somewhat, they are still there. Just to put latest developments into perspective: compared with their average value of the last 12 months, bond yields are currently still some 20bp lower, the euro some 10% weaker and oil prices almost 30% cheaper. Still sufficient to give the economy a cool breezy boost.”

 

“Moreover, domestic fundamentals remain sound and particularly consumption should support growth in the coming months.”  

 

 

 

 

 

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US housing starts and building permits data preview – BBH

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the US data releases today – US housing starts and building permits, noting that consensus expects both to stage a recovery.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The North American session features April housing starts and permits. This sector had been undermined by the weather, especially in the February. A small recovery was seen in March, and a stronger recovery is expected in April.”

 

“Permits, a leading indicator, have held up better. The Q1 monthly average was 1068. The Q4 14 monthly average was 1070. The consensus expects April permits to have risen to 1064.”

 

“That said, the economic bounce back in Q2 has thus far not been very impressive, and not on par with last year’s recovery after the Q1 contraction.” 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD Index set to resume its bull trend – BAML

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - MacNeil Curry, CFA, CMT, Technical Strategist at BofA-Merrill Lynch, views that USD Index looks likely to resume its bull trend towards 106.00.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The US $ Index looks to be in the final stages of its multi-month correction. Into 92.43, we look for basing and a resumption of its long-term uptrend toward 106.00. Bulls need a break of 95.51 to say that the correction is done and the bull trend has resumed.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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UK deflation temporary, November hike by BoE remains on cards – Danske

 

 

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analyst at Danske Bank, Mikael Olai Milhøj, reviews the UK inflation data release, and further argues that the deflationary phase is likely to be temporary and inflation will pick up in H2.

 

Key Quotes

 

“UK CPI inflation was in deflation in April as the annual growth rate in the consumer price index fell to -0.1%, down from 0.0% in March (Danske Bank: 0.1% y/y, consensus: 0.0% y/y). This is the first time since the official records began in 1996 and the first time since 1960, based on historical estimations. Core inflation dropped against expectations to 0.8% in April from 1.0% in March.”

 

“Services inflation fell to 2.0% y/y in April down from 2.4% in March. This is the lowest reported since records began in 1996. This fall was also caused by cheaper air tickets. Higher inflation in services prices is needed for the Bank of England to hit its 2% inflation target, in particular since the strong GBP puts downward pressure on import prices.”

 

“As mentioned, the UK is now officially in deflation, but this is very likely to be temporary. We expect CPI inflation to pick up sharply in H2 when the base effects from the declines in energy and food prices begin to drop out.”

 

“Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, has on several occasions stated that inflation could turn negative, implying that today’s figure should not affect the individual views of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee.”

 

“The very low inflation is good news for UK citizens who are experiencing positive real wage growth for the first time since 2009, which supports private consumption and hence the recovery.”

 

“We still expect the MPC to hike in November this year as the medium-term inflation outlook, in our view, still calls for tighter monetary policy. However, as core inflation is also low and sterling is strong, the MPC can be more patient with the first Bank Rate hike, which continues to be a downside risk to our current call.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD rebound to 1.12 likely to attract bears – TDS

 

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The recent San Francisco Fed speech and ECB’s ‘front-loading’ of asset purchases caused the euro to fall against the dollar, and any rebound to 1.12 levels will likely attract sellers, according to FX Strategists at TD Securities.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The EUR is under pressure again this morning following comments from the ECB’s Coeuré indicating that the central bank would “front load” asset purchases through May and June, ahead of an anticipated lull in market activity/liquidity through the European summer. In addition, another governing council member (Noyer) observed that the ECB was ready to boost QE, if required.”

 

“The headwinds building up against the EUR rally were bolstered by a weekend report from the San Francisco Fed which suggested that the US economy was “substantially stronger” than official GDP data; after adjusting for a statistical quirk which might be responsible for the weakness in GDP growth in Q1 that has been a feature of the landscape in the past 5 years, the SF Fed said the US economy grew 1.8% in Q1, rather than the 0.2% rise reported in the official data.”

 

“Soft German ZEW data today rounded out the negative fundamental news for the EUR. With the ECB talking dovishly and the SF Fed possibly providing some cover for Fed lift-off later this year, little wonder EURUSUD is on the ropes; as we pointed out here, the technical situation for EURUSD would deteriorate on a break below support in the mid 1.12s.”

 

“We think EURUSD rebounds to the mid/upper 1.12s will attract sellers from here going forward.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Going long on GBP/USD – Growth Aces

 

 


 

 


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Growth Aces Research Team maintains their bullish outlook on GBP/USD, going long at 1.5460, targeting 1.5800 levels.


Key Quotes

 

“Our GBP/USD long position opened at 1.5610 and broke below the support level at 1.5537 (38.2% fibo of 1.5088-1.5815 rise). The stop-loss was hit at 1.5530. However, we do not see any fundamental reasons for a trend change.”

 

“We have placed another buy order at 1.5460, just above the 50% fibo of the above-mentioned move. If the order is filled we see the scope for gains towards this-month highs near 1.5800.”

 

“GBP/USD: buy at 1.5460, if filled - target 1.5800, stop-loss 1.5365, risk factor *” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD drops to 1-week low after US housing starts

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD lost nearly 50 pips in a matter of minutes and hit a 1-week low as the dollar strengthened across the board on the back of a strong jump in US housing starts.

 

US housing starts soared 20.2% in April to 7-year high annual rate of 1.135 million, beating expectations of 1.019 million. Meanwhile, building permits, a gauge of future demand, rose by 10.1% in April to 1.143 million, the most since mid-2008. 

 

AUD/USD broke below the 0.7950 zone and fell to its lowest level since May 12 at 0.7923 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7935, recording a 0.65% loss on the day.

 

The Australian dollar has also been facing pressure from dovish RBA minutes and lower copper and iron-ore prices. AUD/USD is falling for fourth day in a row, pulling back from a 4-month high of 0.8162 scored last week. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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BoJ likely to remain on hold in its May policy meeting – BAML

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Team at BofA-Merrill Lynch, previews the BoJ monetary policy meeting on 21-22 May, and expect the central bank to maintain its policy and QE purchases unchanged.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold a Monetary Policy Board meeting on 21-22 May. We expect it to adhere to its current monetary policy framework, including the amounts and residual maturities of its bond purchases. This is because we do not at this stage expect any significant change in the growth and inflation outlooks that it included in its Outlook report on 30 April.”

 

“Of the data announced since the last policy meeting, the April Economy Watchers Survey showed improvement in both the current and outlook diffusion indexes. Although the rate of improvement in labor conditions slowed, labor market supply-demand is still tight.”

 

“On the inflation side, core consumer prices (excluding consumption tax impacts) rose 0.2% YoY in March, a slight recovery from 0.0% in February, but the central Tokyo CPI for April suggests inflation is likely to narrow again without following an established trend.”

 

“At any rate, the change in energy prices is having a major impact. Without any significant changes in the data on the economy and the output gap, we think the BoJ is unlikely to modify its assessment of the underlying inflation trend.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY eyeing 121.00 levels? – FXStreet

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, a USD/JPY break above the resistance at 120.40/50 shifts focus to the key 121.00 figure.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Broad dollar strength pushed the USD/JPY above the 120.00 level for the first time this week, although the pair continued to lack any kind of directional strength, consolidating steady below the 120.20 level ahead of surprise positive US data that boosted the pair higher.”

 

“Now breaking above the 120.40 figure, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is extending above its moving averages, while the technical indicators head sharply higher after bouncing from their mid-lines.”

 

“In the 4 hours chart, the RSI anticipates further advances, heading higher around 70, albeit the Momentum indicator is flat above 100, not yet reflecting the latest advance.”

 

“The immediate resistance stands in the 120.40/50 region, with a break above it favoring an approach to the 121.00 figure.“

 

“Support levels: 120.10 119.60 119.20“

 

“Resistance levels: 120.45 120.85 121.25” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Combination of factors leads to another bad day in crude markets – Malcolm Graham-Wood

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Independent Analyst, Malcolm Graham-Wood comments on oil market performance and highlights the key factors behind yesterday's dismal performance.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Another bad day in the crude markets yesterday as a combination of continued dollar strength, absorption of Saudi export numbers and profit taking in WTI as the June contract expired. Indeed volumes of the next month July contract were noticeably higher than usual as traders saw more than usual rolling over of positions, not surprising considering the massive amount of open long positions at the moment.”

 

“Upward pressures at the moment might come from the better than expected GDP figures from Japan at 2.4%, a possible strike in the UK North Sea as the GMB and Unite unions protest about new working conditions and inventory reports from the US ahead of the Memorial Day holiday weekend.”

 

“The inventory figures are beginning to help out a bit, last night the API numbers showed another draw, this time of 5.2m barrels against a consensus of only 1m which shows that the analysts aren’t getting any better…Lets see how the EIA numbers look tonight.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD forming a bearish reversal – EW-Forecast

 

 


 


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Gregor Horvat of EW-Forecast, uses Elliott wave analysis to give the technical outlook for GBP/USD.

 

Key Quotes

 

“On GBPUSD we are looking A-B-C rally from April lows; a zigzag pattern that has a 5-3-5 structure which now appears complete after a sharp turn down in the last 48 hours from 1.5818 which seems to be an impulse in progress down in wave 1/A.”

 

“As such, we see much lower levels ahead as pair should make minimum three waves down but ideally market will make a new big bearish impulse, back to April lows.” 

 

 

 

 

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Gold trades above 200-DMA and hourly 200-MA

 

 


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices trade above 200-DMA and hourly 200-MA currently located at USD 1207.28 and USD 1206.49 respectively ahead of the Fed minutes. 

 

Gold tracks USD index

 

The metal printed a daily high of USD 1211.4 as the USD index fell from the session high of 95.94 to trade moderately positive on the day around 95.50 levels. In the absence of major economic data across the Europe, the metal remained focused on the USD index. 

 

Ahead in the day, the Fed minutes could provide trigger to the yellow metal. Markets are speculating a dovish tilt in the minutes – possible indication of a delay in the rate hike in the wake of weak US economic data. Such an outcome could be supportive for Gold.

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

The metal currently trades at 1208.2, with immediate resistance is seen at 1215.1 (Apr. 28 high) and 1218 (5-DMA). On the flip side, a break below 1207.28 (200-DMA), could see the prices revisit the daily low at 1203. 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD rebounds to 1.5550

 

 


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Fresh bids took control of the GBP/USD pair as it broke above 1.5520-1.5530 levels, pushing it to a fresh daily high of 1.5562 in the early US session. 

 

USD being sold ahead of Fed minutes

 

The US dollar is being sold in anticipation of dovish Fed minutes. The markets expect policymakers to hint at at a possible delay in the rate hike due to weakness in the economy. The growing dovish expectations are evident from the drop in the US treasury yields. The 10-year yield currently trades 1.4 basis points lower at 2.248%, resulting into USD weakness. 

 

The pair currently trades at 1.555, with eyes set on the 38.2% Fib retracement of 1.7190-1.4564 located at 1.5568. 

 

GBP/USD Technical Levels


The immediate resistance is located at 1.5568, above which the pair could rise to 1.5637 (10-DMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.5517 could send the pair lower to 1.5420 (200-DMA). 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD aims to the low-0.70s by year-end – JP Morgan

 

 


 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Divergent monetary policies from the RBA and the Fed could relegate the pair to test the low-0.70 by the end of the current year, noted analysts at JP Morgan.


Key Quotes

 

“Movements in the real policy rate spread between Australia and the US have been an important driver of AUD/USD moves over the last decade”.

 

“50bp of tightening from the Fed in 2015, combined with iron ore prices moving back down from +US60/tn to around US$50/tn is consistent with AUD/USD in the low 70s by year-end”.

 

“However, on the rates side, with the move being US-driven, our view of a lower AUD/USD relies on the US economy’s 1Q stumble proving temporary”. 

 

 

 

 

 

May 20,2015

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EUR/USD recovery stalled near 1.1150

 

 


 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The euro’s attempt to clinch higher levels vs. the greenback appears to be limited around the mid-1.1100s so far, with EUR/USD now easing towards 1.1115/10.

 

EUR/USD lower on USD, Greece


The solid pace of the US dollar keeps the demand for the single currency subdued, while capping at the same time occasional bullish attempts. Collaborating with today’s decline, Greek jitters are on the rise fuelled by rumours citing the Hellenic country would be unable to repay the IMF without fresh funds.

 

Fanning the flames, the likeliness of deposits freeze and capital controls keep building up, while the ECB will decide in early June whether to keep using its ELA scheme on Greek banks. 

 

EUR/USD relevant levels

 

As of writing the pair is down 0.42% at 1.1102 with the next support at 1.1062 (low May 20) ahead of 1.0994 (50% of 1.0521-1.1468) and then 1.0960 (low Apr.29). On the flip side, a break above 1.1151 (3821-d MA) would expose 1.1166 (100-d MA) and then 1.1237 (38.2% of 1.1468-1.1095). 

 

 

 

 

May 20,2015

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GBP/USD technicals supporting additional gains – FXStreet

 

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explains that GBP/USD technicals remain supportive for additional gains towards 1.5620.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The GBP/USD pair recovered from a daily low of 1.5471 on the back of BOE's Minutes, which resulted less dovish than expected and showed that all of the 9 MPC members voted to keep their current economic policy unchanged.”

 

“The 1 hour chart shows that the price stands above a flat 20 SMA around 1.5500, whilst the technical indicators regained positive ground and head higher, anticipating additional short term advances.”

 

“In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are bouncing from oversold readings, albeit the price struggles around the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily bullish run, with further gains supporting an intraday advance up to 1.5620.”

 

“Support levels: 1.5440 1.5400 1.5360”

 

“Resistance levels: 1.5545 1.5585 1.5620” 

 

 

May 20,2015

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Greece robs “Peter to pay Peter” – MPP

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, VP of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse, comments on the key developments surrounding the Greece debt deal, with the Greeks warning of defaulting on the next IMF repayment.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The 19-member single unit continues to lean on the back foot, straddling the psychological €1.1100 handle this morning, with pressure again being applied from Greece’s payment schedule. The EUR hit fresh monthly lows at €1.1062 as Greece hardens its negotiating stance by threatening to withhold its next IMF payment. Nevertheless, the key support area has held for now, with the pair remaining locked into the lower end of its recent weekly range.”

 

“To the market, it’s not a surprise that the Greek government is warning again that they could miss a payment – the June 5 IMF one. Last week their actions highlighted the precarious nature of their financial situation. Greece raided their reserve accounts at the IMF to keep to its current payment schedule. Basically the Greek authorities are applying not so subtle pressure to get their international creditors to bulge from current demands.”

 

“Nonetheless, the IMF does not scare easily, they, like anyone else, want a permanent deal to ensure sustainability, and the ECB will not be drawn into a political battle. Neither entity can afford to be the instigator that pushes Greece to trigger Grexit, but the cash has run out.” 

 

 

 

 

May 20,2015

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US initial jobless claims rise more than expected, 4-week avg at 15-year low

 

 

 


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US labor department data released on Thursday showed the first time applications for unemployment benefits rose to 274K, bearing the estimate of 271K in the last week, although the four-week average continued to remain at a 15-year low. 

 

The initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 274,000 in the week ended May 16. The four-week average of claims, which provides a more accurate picture of the labor market strength, decreased to 266,250, lowest since April 15, 2000, in the period ended May 16 from 271,750. 

 

Meanwhile, the continuing claims decreased by 12,000 to 2.21 million in the week ended May 9, the lowest level since November 2000. 

 

 

 

 

May 21,2015

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