OctaFX_Farid Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Greek default risk heightens – MP FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis at Market Pulse, comments that today’s Eurogroup-Greece talks have heightened the concerns about Greece’s banking system, and further adds about the potential impact on EUR/USD as the previously seen yield support diminishes. Key Quotes “The EUR starts this week on the back foot as nerves have convinced some longs to liquidate ahead of today’s Eurogroup meeting. Renewed concern over Greece’s future in the eurozone will always produce headwinds for the euro.” “No agreement is seen on Greece at this time, but European Union members are expecting progress to be evident in the negotiation process. The talks between the Greek government and its international partners are entering a crucial phase, overshadowed by a precarious fiscal situation, heavy debt redemption, and concerns about the stability of Greece’s banking system.” “A majority of the market expects a deal to be reached, but the failure to reach an agreement in the coming weeks could firmly put Greece on the Grexit path.” “With the fixed-income market leading the forex moves of late, the EUR bull will be looking toward the rates market for support. A pleasant surprise for EUR long positions is that the two-year U.S.-German yield spread has narrowed -5 basis points since Friday’s jobs report, and with 10s at +158 basis points, they are in -3 basis points today and remain close to last week’s +152 basis points low.” “The EUR bear is required to break €1.1135 support with momentum before pointing to further losses toward €1.1055 and €1.0850.” May 11,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 USD/CAD points to consolidation – BBH FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis at Market Pulse, comments that today’s Eurogroup-Greece talks have heightened the concerns about Greece’s banking system, and further adds about the potential impact on EUR/USD as the previously seen yield support diminishes. Key Quotes “The EUR starts this week on the back foot as nerves have convinced some longs to liquidate ahead of today’s Eurogroup meeting. Renewed concern over Greece’s future in the eurozone will always produce headwinds for the euro.” “No agreement is seen on Greece at this time, but European Union members are expecting progress to be evident in the negotiation process. The talks between the Greek government and its international partners are entering a crucial phase, overshadowed by a precarious fiscal situation, heavy debt redemption, and concerns about the stability of Greece’s banking system.” “A majority of the market expects a deal to be reached, but the failure to reach an agreement in the coming weeks could firmly put Greece on the Grexit path.” “With the fixed-income market leading the forex moves of late, the EUR bull will be looking toward the rates market for support. A pleasant surprise for EUR long positions is that the two-year U.S.-German yield spread has narrowed -5 basis points since Friday’s jobs report, and with 10s at +158 basis points, they are in -3 basis points today and remain close to last week’s +152 basis points low.” “The EUR bear is required to break €1.1135 support with momentum before pointing to further losses toward €1.1055 and €1.0850.” May 11,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 USD/CAD points to consolidation – BBH FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis at Market Pulse, comments that today’s Eurogroup-Greece talks have heightened the concerns about Greece’s banking system, and further adds about the potential impact on EUR/USD as the previously seen yield support diminishes. Key Quotes “The EUR starts this week on the back foot as nerves have convinced some longs to liquidate ahead of today’s Eurogroup meeting. Renewed concern over Greece’s future in the eurozone will always produce headwinds for the euro.” “No agreement is seen on Greece at this time, but European Union members are expecting progress to be evident in the negotiation process. The talks between the Greek government and its international partners are entering a crucial phase, overshadowed by a precarious fiscal situation, heavy debt redemption, and concerns about the stability of Greece’s banking system.” “A majority of the market expects a deal to be reached, but the failure to reach an agreement in the coming weeks could firmly put Greece on the Grexit path.” “With the fixed-income market leading the forex moves of late, the EUR bull will be looking toward the rates market for support. A pleasant surprise for EUR long positions is that the two-year U.S.-German yield spread has narrowed -5 basis points since Friday’s jobs report, and with 10s at +158 basis points, they are in -3 basis points today and remain close to last week’s +152 basis points low.” “The EUR bear is required to break €1.1135 support with momentum before pointing to further losses toward €1.1055 and €1.0850.” May 11,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Gold trades flat FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices trade more or less unchanged on the day at USD 1189.90/Oz, after having recovered from the low of USD 1183.74/Oz. Gold: a resilient safe haven The resilience shown by the metal contradicts the drop seen in the other safe haven assets like Treasuries, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Moreover, the metal has ignored the strength in the USD index as well as the hardness in the yields. The 10-year yield in the US has strengthened 3.6 basis points to 2.186%. The Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen have lost 0.10% and 0.32% respectively against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the mixed action in the major European markets, coupled with a flat activity in the US equities fail to provide clear trading cues to the yellow metal. Gold Technical Levels The immediate resistance is seen at 1192.93 (50-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 1199.5 (May 5 high). On the flip side, a break below 1189.37 (hourly 200-MA), could send the metal back to 1185.86 (hourly 50-MA). May 11,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 USD/JPY might extend to 120.45 – FXStreet FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, USD/JPY 4hourly technicals remain in favour of some gains towards 120.45, with any further gains possible only on a break above this. Key Quotes “The USD/JPY trades in a quite limited range around the 120.00 figure, having posted some limited advances during the Asian session, following Chinese decision to cut rates during the weekend.” “In the short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price advanced above its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators stand in positive territory, albeit showing no upward strength.” “In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator heads strongly north above the 100 level, whist the RSI indicator also aims higher around 55, all of which favors some additional advances, up to 120.45. Nevertheless, the pair needs to extend above this last to extend its advance, as the pair has faltered above the 120.00 level several times over this last month.” “Support levels: 119.55 119.20 118.90” “Resistance levels: 120.05 120.45 120.80” May 11,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Expectations strong for further easing in China – MP FXStreet (Barcelona) - With the PBoC cutting its benchmark interest rates by 25bps, Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse, mentions that market expectations for further easing have climbed higher, and at the same time any feed through to commodity currencies is unlikely. Key Quotes “Chinese policymakers cut rates again over the weekend, the third time they’ve done so in seven months. This time around it has caused little market reaction, mostly because of the size. The PBoC cut its main policy rate after soft trade and underwhelming consumer-price index (CPI) data.” “April CPI inflation rose by a decimal to a four-month high of +1.5%, but still missed market expectations. The year-to-date CPI of +1.3% was also underwhelming, as it remains well below the official 2015 target of +3.0%. It’s worth noting that food CPI was once much higher at +2.7% versus +0.9% for non-food. Officials do indicate that supply of meat and fresh vegetables has been stable, so there are no expectations of a sharp jump in food prices in the near term.” “The easing — a -25 basis points cut in deposit and lending rates to +2.25% and +5.10%, respectively — was widely expected by the market following last week’s downbeat trade numbers. The PBoC also noted it will continue to “promote real interest rates back toward reasonable levels” in response to the downward pressure the economy is facing.” “The consensus is for further easing by the PBoC. But will looser policy in China provide support for commodity- and interest rate-sensitive currencies like the AUD, NZD, or CAD? The initial market reaction does not expect a looser policy in China to feed through to commodity currencies.” May 11,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 US stocks trade flat FXStreet (Mumbai) - US stocks are trading in the sideways manner after the DOW posted its biggest single day gain on Friday since January end. At the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 17.61 points, or 0.1%, to 18173.50. The S&P 500 index was down less than a point to 2115.40. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained seven points, or 0.1, to 5010.73. The flat trading followed a surge in the US stocks on Friday after the jobs data in April indicated the economy is recovering from the first quarter slowdown. At the same time, the jobs numbers was not strong enough to trigger concern of an early rate hike in the US. Consequently, the stocks rallied, with the DJIA gaining 267 points, or 1.5%. However, the US markets so far today have not been able to rally on the Chinese rate cut. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3% after China’s central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, its third rate cut move in six months. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.183% from 2.148% on Friday. Yields rise as prices fall. May 11,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 GBP/USD reaches fresh 2015 high FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD broke decisively above the 1.5520 resistance area and pushed to its highest level in 2015, as the pound continues to strengthen following UK elections. Earlier on the day, the the Bank of England's MPC left the Bank rate and QE unchanged, at 0.5% and GBP 375 billion respectively, with focus now turning to Wednesday's Quarterly Inflation Report. GBP/USD surpassed Friday’s high at 1.5523 and accelerated to a peak of 1.5572, last seen December 31st 2014, helped by EUR/GBP slump. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.5563, recording a 0.73% gain on Monday. GBP/USD technical levels On the upside, next resistances line up at 1.5572 (daily high), 1.5600 (psychological level) and 1.5640 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.5392 (daily low), 1.5300 (psychological level) and 1.5245 (May 8 low). May 11,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 USD/JPY outlook neutral - Scotiabank FXStreet (Barcelona) - With USD/JPY still trapped in its broad 118.50-120.50 range, Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, maintains a technically neutral outlook on the pair, awaiting a break from this range. Key Quotes “JPY is quiet, consolidating within a narrow range as moderate risk aversion provides an offset to the broader USD performance. Domestic releases are limited this week, given current account and PPI releases and a speech from Gov. Kuroda.” “USDJPY technicals remain neutral, and we await a break of the month-long range of 118.50 to 120.50” May 11,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 EUR/USD: Comes with chances of recovery still above 1.1052 FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1159 with a high of 1.1208 and a low of 1.1133. EUR/USD has seen some out of synch price action that may be correlated to option expiries in the EUR/USD that are both large, close to prevailing rate and close to expiry at NY cut 10am. The price 1.1150 for quick 35 pips or so only to drop back and resume the downside again to prevailing prices. Meanwhile, there is still a cautious tone over Greece with the forthcoming deadlines and vast amounts of Greek debt that needs to be settled. For instance, tomorrow alone, there is the deadline for Greece to repay EUR757m to the IMF. However, June is not far off and this is more of a concern as there is a requirement for the larger EUR1.5b IMF repayment and then the EUR 3b which will be owed to the ECB in July and August. Technically, EUR/USD the major is well blow the highs of last week at 1.1392 and there was a divergence in the RSI and hence the resumption of the downside. There is strong support sighted by analysts below prevailing rate, and this is sighted at 1.1052 26th March high. While we trade above here, there is he chance of the upside recovering. May 11,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 USD/JPY strong resistance at 120.80/121.20 – Westpac FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of strategists at Westpac, the area of 120.80/121.20 remains a strong barrier for USD/JPY. Key Quotes “At the risk of moving well beyond the point of being considered boring, we remain of the view that USD/JPY is in a range trade, that dips are still an opportunity to buy and that dips are 118.50 or below”. “The rapid rise in global bond yields/ steepening in Asian NDF curves is flashing warning signals for us, warning signals that a bout of risk aversion may be ahead”. “AUD/JPY has a double top at 96.00, EUR/ JPY is making 2 month highs. USD/JPY and yen crosses look expensive to us here, so we are not inclined to step up. So we remain neutral for yet another week”. “Dips held around multiple lows down to 118.33 in the recent weeks. Mild short term upside bias. Resistance remains firm towards 120.80/121.20”. May 12,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 EUR/SEK expected to grind lower – Rabobank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, the negative bias could prevail in the cross in the upcoming months. Key Quotes “The Riksbank may not have cut interest rates at its April 29 policy meeting but it increased QE and warned that further aggressive policy measures could be forthcoming”. “One constraining influence is the heady level of household debt. This has been of concern for some time and recent data showing a stronger than expected 6.4% y/y March rise in household debt suggest little sign of the trend abating”. “While the Riksbank remains on guard against deflationary forces, the lack of a rate cut last month does come against an improvement in domestic fundamentals”. “CPI inflation has moved off its lows and the Riksbank points to a rise in inflation expectation – a sure sign that the deflation battle is working. We expect a modest downside bias in EUR/SEK”. May 12,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 USD/CAD testing lows near 1.2030 FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US dollar pared previous gains and dropped to fresh four day lows against its Canadian counterpart in the European session, with USD/CAD extending declines towards 1.20 handle, mainly driven by heavily offered US dollar across the board together with a sharp rebound seen in oil prices. USD/CAD back on 1.20 handle Currently, the USD/CAD trades lower by -0.59% at 1.2033, testing fresh four day low at 1.2026 levels. The USD/CAD pair extends losses as the resource-linked loonie strengthened amid a solid come back in oil prices ahead of OPEC report. Oil is Canada’s top export. Moreover, persistent broad based US dollar weakness also hurts USD/CAD, dragging it from 1.2108 daily highs. The US dollar index (DXY) which measures the relative strength of the greenback versus six major currencies now trades at 94.48, down -0.67% on the day. USD/CAD Technical Levels To the upside, the next resistance is located at 1.2108 levels and above which it could extend gains 1.2146 levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 1.2000 levels, below that at 1.1932 (April 29 Low). May 12,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 DXY could drop to 90.00/92.00 – Westpac FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US Dollar Index (DXY) could extend its downside to the area of 90.00/92.00, according to strategists at Westpac. Key Quotes “West coast ports and BEA imports data confirm the ports disruption is now in the process of being cleared”. “15 year lows in jobless claims and still healthy reads for both the Markit and ISM services PMI are encouraging too”. “However the growing body of evidence suggests the dislocation in energy output and investment along with the higher USD are exerting a bigger drag”. “Consensus has thus far trimmed 2015 GDP from 3.2% in Jan to 2.8%, yet our analysis suggests these two more enduring headwinds could lop at least 1ppts from 2015 GDP growth”. “Bottom line the trend toward US growth downgrades and deferred Fed tightening expectations appears to still have a way to go”. “We have run with a negative one month USD bias and a bullish three month bias for some weeks, in the case of the latter looking for oil prices, yield spreads and growth differentials to swing back in a USD positive direction. We are growing impatient with the three month bullish USD index outlook”. “Response to numerically significant resistance at 100.00 has been an impulsive rejection, implying a likely multi-week / month decline, initially towards 90.00/92.00”. May 12,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 USD/CAD seen higher medium term – Rabobank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, the pair is expected to resume its upside along with expectations of the Fed hiking by year end. Key Quotes “The BoC has decided to look through “the effects of the recent depreciation of the CAD”. “The market has inferred that the BoC is not positioning itself to follow its January ‘insurance’ interest rate cuts”. “Together with the recent broad-based sell off in the greenback and higher oil prices, this has supported the CAD and USD/CAD has plunged over 6% between mid-Mar and late Apr”. “That said, March trade data highlighted a widening in the deficit to a record C$3 bln led by a slump in energy exports”. “These data should hamper further upside potential for the CAD although the outlook will remain dominated by oil prices”. “Since we look for a Fed rate hike in Dec, we expect USD/CAD to push higher in the months ahead”. May 12,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 AUD/USD fails to reach 0.8000 and falls back to 0.7950 FXStreet (Tokyo) - After rallying around 100 pips from 0.7885 in the Asian and European session; the AUD/USD failed to reach the 0.8000 as the pair was sold at 0.7990 and launched back to 0.7950. Earlier move was supported by broad USD weakness and it got a small boost from Australian budget. However, pair was heavy by the American opening bell. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7953, up 0.78% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7996 and low at 0.7886. AUD/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. AUD/USD forecast According to the FXStreet AUD/USD Forecast Poll, "AUD/USD is capped below 0.8000, room to test 0.7500." The sentiment towards the Aussie remains negative in the FXpoll despite latest advance. Analyst at Admiral Markets Anil Panchal says that the "failure to break 0.8030, coupled with RBA rate cut and weaker labor market details," could make the AUD/USD to "extend declines to 0.7700 horizontal mark." Australian Dollar to US Dollar levels As for the short term, if the pair consolidates levels below 0.7950, it will find supports at 0.7920 and 0.7880. To the upside, 0.8000, 0.8030 and 0.8070 are resistances. May 12,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Technical outlook for USD/JPY – DayTradeIdeas FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jason Sen of DayTradeIdeas, gives the technical outlook and key upside and downside levels for USD/JPY. Key Quotes “USDJPY holding above 120.00/05 targets 120.20/25. If we continue higher look for a selling opportunity at 120.50/55. A good chance of a high for the day but shorts need stops above 120.65 to test April highs at 120.80/84. If we continue higher look for 121.00/05 then 121.20.” “First support at 120.05/00 but below here look for 119.70/75. If we continue lower look for support at 119.50/45. However a break lower today meets support at 119.25/20 which should hold the downside but below here risks a slide to support at 118.95/90.” “If we continue lower, trend line support at 118.70/60 is a buying opportunity. Try longs with stops below 118.45 but on a break lower look for support at 118.30/20.” May 12,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 EUR/USD deflates to 1.1240 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The upside momentum in EUR/USD now seems to have found strong resistance in the 1.1280 area, prompting the current knee-jerk to the 1.1245/40 band. EUR/USD remains firm above 1.1200 The pair managed to regain the 1.1200 handle after bottoming out in the 1.1130 area on Monday. The fresh upside momentum has been propped up by a wave of selling interest in the debt markets, taking Bund yields to fresh multi-month highs. In addition, renewed optimism around the Greek debt renegotiation after yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting would be lending support to the euro as well. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment the pair is advancing 0.77% at 1.1241 with the next hurdle at 1.1290 (high May 8) ahead of 1.1392 (high May 7) and finally 1.1400 (psychological level). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1131 (low May 11) would target 1.1067 (low May 5) en route to 1.1059 (38.2% of 1.0521-1.1392). May 12,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Forex: GBP/USD vulnerable to a short-term correction – Rabobank FXStreet (Barcelona) - With technical indicators signalling that GBP/USD gains remain stretched, and US retail sales data tomorrow expected to increase, the pair might witness a correction lower towards 1.54 levels, explains Piotr Matys of Rabobank. Key Quotes “GBP/USD rallied to 1.5498 high on April 29. On that day the RSI increased to 72.2141 before a pullback to 1.5090~ low unfolded at the beginning of May. In other words, with the RSI above the 70 level, there is a risk of a correction or at least consolidation, which would keep the December 2014 high at 1.5786 out of reach (at least in the short-term).” “A sharp pullback below the support area formed by the February 26 high at 1.5552 and the 1.55~ threshold is required to shift the short-term focus to lower levels with 1.54~ as a potential target. Such a correction could be triggered by US retail sales due on Wednesday.” “The market expects a fairly modest headline increase of 0.2% in April from 0.9% in March and 0.6% excluding auto and gas. Far stronger than expected retail sales would catch many market players long GBP/USD.” “That said, one set of data is unlikely to seriously undermine the upside trend in GBP/USD, which has been in place since the middle of April.” “To bring back into focus the year-to-date low at 1.4566, US data may have to surprise on the upside throughout Q2.” May 12,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 RBA might cut rates again this year – Rabobank FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, views that it is soon to write-off a rate cut risk by the RBA, in spite of Governor Steven’s removing the ‘further easing of policy ‘ statement from the recent policy statement, forecasting two more rate cuts in 2015. Key Quotes "Last week’s 25 bp rate cut from the RBA may not have gone according to plan. The value of AUD/USD has edged higher since the May 5 meeting partly because USD bulls have lost faith but partly because the market now has the impression that last week’s rate cut from the RBA may have been the last of the cycle.” “According to a Bloomberg survey conducted between May 7 and May 11, RBA rates are now expected to be on hold until Q3 2016 when there will be a modest hike. Of the 29 forecasters only 6 see scope for further rate cuts.” “Some of the hawkishness is reportedly derived from the decision by RBA Governor Stevens to omit from last week’s policy statement the words “further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead” that were used to stress the Bank’s dovish tone in March.” “In our view, however, it is too soon to write-off rate cut risk from the RBA. We doubt if the moderate rise in Australia’s effective exchange rate this year will be welcomed by the central bank and in view of the loss of bullish USD momentum, there is arguably even more reason for the RBA to reassert a dovish position in the coming weeks.” May 12,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 RBA might cut BoE remains dovish, but medium-term GBP bullish view intact – TDS FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jacqui Douglas, Chief European Macro Strategist at TD Securities, notes that the Bank of England May QIR saw GDP growth revised lower across the board with risks to global growth now lying to the downside, CPI revised up only ever so slightly in near-term, and inflation still taking two full years to reach 2.0%. Key Quotes “Today’s Inflation Report was rather uneventful, with a more dovish outlook than we had anticipated but very little market reaction. Near-term CPI forecasts were revised a little higher, but less than we had expected with the BoE still highlighting a potential move into negative territory in the coming months.” “GDP growth was revised lower across the forecast horizon, which was not something that we had anticipated. This seems to be due to a combination of the softer Q1 preliminary GDP outcome, and the political situation in Greece leaving the risks to global growth shifting from balanced to the downside now.” “The BoE also downgraded near-term wage growth, where the February forecast was for a 3.5% Y/Y pace by Q3 this year, and the projection now is for a 2.5% Y/Y rate by Q4, although the 2016 and 2017 forecasts were unchanged at 4% for both years, so the improvement is just going to be a little slower than initially expected.” “Overall the take-away here seems to be that there’s no urgency at all to begin raising rates, but we still think that markets will start turning toward that idea in the coming months.” “We think that the Q1 weakness was more of an anomaly, and there’s a good opportunity for a solid bounce in Q2 and stronger growth through the rest of year, which should have markets thinking harder about rate hikes.” “Especially with Fed rate hikes looking a little less certain this year, it now may be a race between the Fed and the BoE for who will be the first to hike, even if that wasn’t obvious from today’s QIR, so in the medium-term we’re still very comfortable with a bullish GBP outlook.” May 13,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 EUR/DKK peg under pressure? – Rabobank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, sees the possibility of the EUR/DKK peg to be under pressure. Key Quotes “The aggressive monetary easing announced by the DNB at the start of the year was oriented at protecting the EUR/DKK ERMii peg”. “The impact of that policy is now lending support to economic activity”. “The DNB expects growth at 2.0% this year and to remain at that level in 2016 and 2017. The Bank has candidly pointed out that “there is no deflation”. “For a central bank clouded with a deflationary risk, it will always be easier to weaken its currency, as the DNB was trying to do this year”. “However, once the deflationary risk is removed, aggressively easing could raise the risk of medium-term inflation”. “It follows that if CPI inflation begins to head higher in Denmark, speculators may yet have reason to bet against the EUR/DKK peg”. May 13,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 US retail sales expected to disappoint – TDS FXStreet (Barcelona) - Previewing the US data release today, FX Strategists at TD Securities expect the retail sales results to show a below consensus gain . Key Quotes “We finally get some top-tier economic data this week in US retail sales. This report will be for April and will be closely parsed for signs that Q1 softness was more temporary than a sign of a slowdown in US growth.We are looking for small disappointment relative to the market across all measures of retail sales (market: 0.5% m/m for headline) but we would note that the core metric is still expected to be print at a respectable 0.4% m/m (market: 0.5%).” May 13,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Gold expected to test $1207 if US retail sales disappoints – FXStreet FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Dhwani Mehta, gives the probable price action in Gold into the US retail sales data release. Key Quotes “Technically, as mentioned before, gold prices are poised for a symmetrical triangle bullish breakout with 200-DMA at 1207 in sight above a sustained break of 1200 levels if the US data disappoints markets.” “The daily RSI at 52 aims higher suggesting more room for upside.” “Gold prices may reverse its upside bias in case the retail sales figures beat estimates or even come in line with expectations.” “Gold finds good support at 50-DMA located at 1192.17 and a break below the last could drag the pair lower to 10-DMA placed at 1187.90 levels and below that to 1180 support.” May 13,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 USD/JPY drops to 119.40 on US data FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is losing further ground vs, the Japanese yen on Wednesday, sending USD/JPY to session lows around 119.40. USD/JPY lower on US miss Another disappointing release in the US docket is hurting the dollar. This time, headline Retail Sales came in flat during April on a monthly basis vs. forecasts for a 0.2% gain, while sales exclusing the Automobile sector expanded a meagre 0.1% vs. 0.5% expected. The miserable results push the pair lower and accelerated the intraday downside to the area of 119.40, or multi-day lows. USD/JPY levels to watch At the moment the pair is retreating 0.32% at 119.47 and a break below 119.34 (daily cloud base) would expose 119.00 (psychological level). On the upside, the immediate hurdle lines up at 120.10 (high May 13) followed by 120.28 (high May 12) and then 120.51 (high May 5). On the other hand, May 13,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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