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EUR/JPY sold at 135.30; back to 134.60

 

 

 


 

FXStreet (Cocoa) - The Euro is currently falling against the Japanese Yen and after losing 70 pips from 135.30 in the American morning, the EUR/JPY is now testing 134.60 area. Euro is under pressure amid mixed European data and strong USD.

 

Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 134.68, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 135.38 and low at 134.22. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. 

 

EUR/JPY levels

 

If the Euro extends declines beyond 134.60 against the Yen, it will find supports at 134.20, 134.00 and 133.50. To the upside, resistances are at 135.00, 135.30 and 135.70. 

 

 

 

 

 

May 21,2015

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EUR/GBP breaches 0.7100

 

 

 


 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/GBP has sharply reverted the initial positive tone and is now re-visiting multi-week lows in sub-0.7100 levels.

 

EUR/GBP in 3-month lows

 

The solid pace of the pound is dragging the European cross below the 0.7100 handle, levels last seen in mid-March. The sterling is gathering further traction in response to the very auspicious results from UK retail sales during the last month, advancing beyond expectations.

 

In addition MPC M.Weale said that declining oil prices could have a negative impact on consumer prices while they could help lifting economic growth. In any case, he added that the effects should be gone in a couple of years.

 

EUR/GBP key levels

 

The cross is now losing 0.62% at 0.7098 with the immediate support at 0.7091 (low May 21) ahead of 0.7036 (low Mar.12) and then 0.7015 (2015 low Mar.11). On the flip side, the initial up barrier lines up at 0.7169 (high May 21) ahead of 0.7196 (10-d MA) and finally 0.7232 (high May 19).

 

 

 

 

 

May 21,2015

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USD/MXN climbs to highs on GDP

 

 

 


 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso is now losing further ground vs. its northern neighbor, pushing USD/MXN to intraday tops near 15.25.

 

USD/MXN stronger on data

 

The pair saw its upside intensified after the Mexican GDP figures showed the economy expanded 0.4% inter-quarter during Q1 and 2.5% over the last twelve months, bettering expectations albeit a tad lower than the previous prints. In addition, the Economic Activity contracted 0.6% MoM during March and rose 2.7% on a yearly basis.

 

North of the Rio Grande, Markit’s manufacturing PMI came in on the softer side, falling to 53.8 for the current month vs. 54.5 expected and April’s 54.1.

 

USD/MXN important levels

 

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.31% at 15.2412 and a breakout of 15.4295 (high May 12) would open the door to 15.5935 (high May 1) and finally 15.6676 (high Mar.10). On the downside, the next support lines up at 15.0737 (low May 19) followed by 15.0035 (low May 18) and then 14.8347 (low Apr.8). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 21,2015

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Eurozone PMIs set to improve over the course of 2015 – TDS

 

 

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing the Eurozone flash PMIs release, the TD Securities Team believes that the slight weakness seen in today’s data is likely to be replaced by a improvement on a trend basis over the course of 2015.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Today’s Eurozone flash PMIs for May suggested a bit more downside than we were looking for. French services disappointed as we expected as the PMI only rose from 51.4 to 51.6, a few tenth shy of expectations, but there was also more weakness reported in German manufacturing, where the PMI fell from 52.1 to 51.4 and missed the slight acceleration we were tracking.”

 

“The details were also soft, as Germany reported soft export demand and new orders while French domestic industry struggled to build any momentum.”

 

“We have been worried of some of the backwash from the disappointing growth in the US in Q1 filtering into some of the global data and this may be one factor, but overall, we would still expect Eurozone PMIs to improve on a trend basis over the course of the year.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 21,2015

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Eurozone PMIs set to improve over the course of 2015 – TDS

 

 

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing the Eurozone flash PMIs release, the TD Securities Team believes that the slight weakness seen in today’s data is likely to be replaced by a improvement on a trend basis over the course of 2015.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Today’s Eurozone flash PMIs for May suggested a bit more downside than we were looking for. French services disappointed as we expected as the PMI only rose from 51.4 to 51.6, a few tenth shy of expectations, but there was also more weakness reported in German manufacturing, where the PMI fell from 52.1 to 51.4 and missed the slight acceleration we were tracking.”

 

“The details were also soft, as Germany reported soft export demand and new orders while French domestic industry struggled to build any momentum.”

 

“We have been worried of some of the backwash from the disappointing growth in the US in Q1 filtering into some of the global data and this may be one factor, but overall, we would still expect Eurozone PMIs to improve on a trend basis over the course of the year.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 21,2015

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US Q1 GDP to see a downward revision into negative zone – TDS

 

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jacqui Douglas, Chief European Macro Strategist at TD Securities, expects the second reading of US Q1 GDP to be released on 29th of May, to lead to a downward revision to -0.6%.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The second reading of Q1 GDP will a substantial downward revision from the 0.2% SAAR advanced estimate, and we’re looking for a -0.6% reading. The main source of downward revision comes from a mammoth March trade deficit, although it’s difficult to say how much attention markets will really pay to the negative print given the widespread talk of problems with the BEA’s seasonal adjustment.”

 

“Earlier in the week, markets will be watching Tuesday’s durable goods report for any real signs of improvement to begin Q2 after two quarters of weakness.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 21,2015

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EUR/USD hovers above 1.1100, immune to US data

 

 


 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD extends its sideways phase at the beginning of the New York session as the latest string of US data failed to trigger decent moves across the board, as investors continue to assess FOMC minutes and await the more important US consumer inflation data due tomorrow.

 

EUR/USD recovered from below 1.1100 and reached a peak of 1.1180 during the European session, supported by Eurozone data. However, the shared currency failed to hold at highs for long. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.1120 zone, recording a 0.25% gain on the day.

 

The euro has lost nearly four big figures this week, sliding from a 3-month high of 1.1466 last Friday to a low of 1.1061, weighed by Greek lingering concerns and dovish comments from ECB officials, suggesting the possibility the bank could increase the amount of bond purchases and extend the program beyond September 2016.

 

EUR/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, EUR/USD could find immediate supports at 1.1061 (May 20 low), 1.0990 (50% retracement of 1.0520 - 1.1466) and 1.0935 (50-day SMA). On the flip side, resistances line up at 1.1180/84 (daily high/20-day SMA), 1.1200 (psychological level) and 1.1245 (10-day SMA). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 21,2015

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GBP/USD: technicals providing an early warning sign – Scotiabank

 

 

 


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that GBP/USD trades weak post comments from BoE MPC member Shafik, while the turn in MACD provides an early warning sign for traders.

 

Key Quotes

 

“GBP is weak, underperforming ahead of the NA session in response to comments from BoE MPC member Shafik. The comments reiterated a neutral tone of patience, highlighting expectations of a gradual pace of hikes while also pushing back on expectations of balance sheet adjustment in the absence of a ‘materially higher’ policy rate.”

 

“GBPUSD short-term technicals: bullish-neutral—momentum indicators have softened with the turn in the MACD providing an early warning sign. Resistance over the past two sessions has been observed around 1.5700 with limited movement above the 9 day MA (1.5656).”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 22,2015

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NZD/USD: Back on track within descending channel

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7383 with a high of 0.7384 and a low of 0.7340.

 

NZD/USD has resumed the downside post overnight demand that took the bird up to test the bear's commitments, protecting the 0.74 handle. However, the rally only made it as far as the 0.7390's and the EMA 200 on the hourly. So far today, CPI's in the US are fuelling a rally in the greenback. 

 

We now await Yellen talking. Yellen is scheduled to talk at 11 p.m. ET with a speech on the economy to the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. The speech may either underpin the Feds's optimism and add further to the Kiwi's descent or the outcome may arise as less bullish and slightly dovish in respect to the recent disappointments in data in the US economy, binging 0.7400 back in to the picture in the short term.

 

Technically, there is little that is new. We are in the descending channel from 0.7560 and targeting 0.73 for further downside below recent lows (0.7277) with a fade on rallies strategy until 0.7108, being the March 2011 lows. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 22,2015

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Why the rally in the greenback on "more or less" in-line CPI's? - FXStreet

 

 

 

 


 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted that the dollar stands victorious this week, having accelerated its advance on Friday on the back of stronger-than-expected inflation readings in the US. 

 

Key Quotes:

 

"Furthermore, the FOMC released the Minutes of its latest meeting, saying that most of the voting members see a rate hike in June as "unlikely." But the dollar came back like a vengeance on Friday,after the release of inflation figures."

 

"Were the numbers that bright actually? In fact, not: The CPI increased 0.1% in April on a seasonally adjust basis against prior 0.2% and fell 0.2% against an expected decline of 0.1%. The core reading, excluding food and energy, matched the previous reading of 1.8% yearly basis, whilst the monthly reading improved to 0.3% from previous 0.2%."

 

"So why is the dollar rallying so sharply? Because we like it or not, the US is the only major economy in the path of tightening its economic policy, whilst the rest continues to struggle with decisions of whether or not extending their stimulus programs."

 

"And while a June rate hike may be "unlikely," investors are quite convinced that the year won't end without US rates getting a lift."

 

"During the upcoming week, the market will pay special attention to Durable Goods Orders to be released on Tuesday, housing data scheduled for Tuesday and Thursday, but it won't be until Friday, with the first revision of Q1 GDP that the market will get a clearer picture regarding rates."

 

"Anyway, keep in mind that dollar dips, as long as hopes for a rate hike sometime this year subsist, are just buying opportunities, particularly against currencies which Central Banks are looking to keep stimulus up." 

 

 

 

 

 

May 22,2015

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US Q1 GDP growth to be revised lower – Danske


 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team previews the key data releases in the US in the next week.

 

Key Quotes

 

“We expect US Q1 GDP growth to be revised lower over the coming week, due primarily to exports and inventories.”

 

“We expect the underlying upward trend in the US housing market to continue and we look for a rebound in both new home sales and pending home sales in April.” 

 

 

 

 

 

May 22,2015

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GBP/USD lid turn tighter on Yellen and dollar strength


 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5480 with a high of 1.5691 and a low of 1.5467.

 

GBP/USD has continued along in a sideways drift despite Yellen's speech coming as hawkish with intentions of a rate rise this year. "Delaying action to tighten monetary policy until employment and inflation are already back to our objectives would risk overheating the economy," was the key take away as well as, "For this reason, if the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy."

 

She added however, "I should stress that the actual course of policy will be determined by incoming data and what that reveals about the economy. We have no intention of embarking on a preset course of increases in the federal funds rate after the initial increase. Rather, we will adjust monetary policy in response to developments in economic activity and inflation as they occur."

 

There is nothing new here for us but it has underpinned the notion of a rate rise this year and keeps a lid on GBP/USD. Moving across to UK fundamentals, the recent retail's data was a strong catalyst for the demand in the pound of late but bulls may come reluctant to be too long without caution around the outcome of continued austerity in the UK economy under the Conservatives and the risks to the pound on an EU referendum. The ECB front loading QE may, however, offer extra liquidity in to UK assets and be supportive in the medium term. Technically, The 200 week moving average at 1.5894 reinforces overhead resistance. Closes below the 1.55 uptrend will leave the cloud support at 1.5059 exposed.  

 

 

 

 

 

May 22,2015

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GBP/USD hits 2-week low weighed by US data


 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD resumed the fall and hit a fresh 2-week low as the dollar strengthened on the back of US durable goods data. GBP/USD dropped to a low of 1.5359, last seen May 8, and it was last trading at 1.5380, 0.56% below its opening price. 

 

US durable goods orders dropped 0.5% in April versus a fall of 0.4% expected. However, March durable goods orders rise was revised to 5.1% from a previously reported 4.4% gain. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%, matching expectations.

 

Separated data showed US home price index rose by 0.9% in March and 5.0% YoY.

 

The dollar resumed its advance on Tuesday as investors are coming back after the holiday and digesting Fed Yellen's comments. On Friday, Fed Chairwoman said it would be “appropriate at some point this year” to start raising rates. Markets are regaining confidence the Fed will act sooner, after a soft series of Q1 data sparked skepticism. 

 

 

 

 

 

May 26,2015

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USD/MX off highs on data


 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso is recovering part of the ground lost o the greenback in early trade, now dragging USD/MXN to the 15.28 region.

 

USD/MXN testing 2-week tops

 

The pair keeps the trade in the upper end of the weekly range after US Durable Goods Orders excluding the Transportation sector rose more than previously estimated during the last month, bolstering further the upbeat momentum around the greenback.

 

In addition, Mexican retail sales surprised to the upside during March, advancing 0.2% inter-month and 5.5% over the last twelve months.

 

USD/MXN relevant levels

 

The pair is now gaining 0.23% at 15.2914 with the next resistance at 15.4297 (high May 12) followed by 15.4838 (high May 5) and finally 15.5935 (high May 1). On the other hand, a breakdown of 15.1843 (low May 22) would aim for 15.1328 (low May 21) and then 15.0737 (low May 19). 

 

 

 

 

 

May 26,2015

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EUR/USD requires a move below 1.0870 to see further declines – FXStreet


 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes EUR/USD technicals have turned back lower but the pair requires a break below 1.0870 to see declines towards 1.08 area.


Key Quotes

 

“The first key macroeconomic release in the US, the Durable Goods Orders for April fell 0.5%, although the Core reading surge 0.5% whist previous month figures were strongly revised higher. The dollar got a boost despite the monthly decline, and the EUR/USD fell down to test its low following the release.”

 

“Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators have turned back lower below their mid-lines, whilst the 20 SMA provided intraday resistance.”

 

“In the 4 hours chart, the price remains well below its moving averages, whilst the Momentum indicator heads strongly lower well below their mid-lines as the RSI consolidates around 28.”

 

“Renewed selling interest below 1.0870, the immediate support, is now required to confirm a later approach to the 1.0800 region before the day is over.”

 

“Support levels: 1.0870 1.0830 1.0800”

 

“Resistance levels: 1.0940 1.0975 1.1010” 

 

 

 

 

 

May 26,2015

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DAX defends mild gains


 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Germany’s benchmark index, the DAX manages to keep gains, holding on to a minor recovery after sharp sell-off seen on Tuesday after the US dollar rallied on the back of upbeat US macro figures while Greece default concerns also dragged the index lower.

 

Currently, the DAX 30 trades 0.26% higher at 11656.50 levels, retreating from 11690 session highs. The DAX strives to maintain a bid tone as investors’ sentiment was hampered amid lack of progress seen on the Greece front ahead of its June 5 repayment to the IMF.

 

The index is seen trading with a positive market breadth, the advance-decline ratio being 18:12. Heidelberg Cement is the top gainer up 1.41% followed by Beiersdorf AG up mere 1.16%. While E.ON SE is down -0.83% on the day, followed by MRG AG which is losing -0.73%.

 

DAX Technical Levels

 

The index has an immediate resistance at 11800. Meanwhile, support is seen at 11586 levels and 11410 levels.  

 

 

 

 

 

May 27,2015

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EUR/GBP rejected at 0.7091


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - EUR/GBP extends its upbeat momentum during the mid-European session, largely on the back of broadly stronger shared currency while markets now await the UK Q1 GDP revision on Thursday amid no significant macro releases later today.

 

EUR/GBP awaits fresh cues

 

Currently, the EUR/GBP cross trades 0.23% higher at 0.7085, having previously posted fresh session highs at 0.7091 some minutes ago. The cross in EUR/GBP edged higher this session although remains subdued amid lack of fresh triggers for the both the EUR and GBP as traders now shift their focus towards the second estimate of first-quarter economic growth in the UK. 

 

The majority of economists now expect an upward revision to 0.4%. The Bank of England (BoE) expects first-quarter growth of 0.5% in the final estimate. 

 

Moreover, the US dollar seems to have wiped out losses and is on its way to resume its upbeat macro data-led uptrend which again may keep a check on cross.

 

EUR/GBP Levels to consider

 

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.7091 (Today’s High) and above which it could extend gains to at 0.7116 (May 24 High) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.7030 (March 12 Low) levels below that at 0.7011 (March 11 Low) levels. 

  

 

 

 

 

 

May 27,2015

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ECB decides to leave Greece’s ELA limit unchanged at EUR 80.2 billion


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - According to sources from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Executive Board decided on Wednesday to leave Greece’s emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) limit unchanged at its current level of EUR80.2 billion. 

 

The ECB raised the ELA by a modest EUR200 million last week, suggesting that Greek banks had still some EUR3 billion of liquidity left even after a spike in deposit withdrawals in recent days. 

 

According to Greek Kathimerini newspaper, in the past few days, and particularly on Tuesday, there has been a significant increase in deposit outflows from Greek banks.

 

Kathimerini noted, “Credit sector professionals reported that deposit outflows on Tuesday alone came to EUR300 million, against about EUR100 million per day in recent days. They said that while this amount is quite high, the situation is under control as citizens are remaining calm on the positive messages from Greek officials."

  

 

 

 

 

 

May 27,2015

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Gold recovers from fresh 2-week lows


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices on Comex recovered partial losses, although remains in red during the European session, largely as the US dollar managed to fight back lost ground and trades steady ahead of a data-dry US session.

 

Gold recovers from 1184.60

 

Currently, gold trades -0.13% at 1186.20, having posted day’s high at 1191 and fresh 2 week lows at 1184.60. Gold remains under pressure as the US dollar is set to resume is upward trajectory after a brief correction seen earlier today.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar index, measuring the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades -0.08% lower at 97.30, retreating from fresh session lows reached at 97.01. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

 

The upside in the yellow metal remains capped he ongoing talks about the timing of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike following a raft of stronger than expected US economic releases which kick-started with upbeat US CPI figures released on Friday.

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

The metal has an immediate resistance at 1192 and 1195 levels. Meanwhile, support stands at 1182 below which doors could open for 1178 levels. 

  

 

 

 

 

 

May 27,2015

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Mistake to think that Greek contagion is contained - US Treasury Sec Jack Lew


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said on Wednesday that it would be a mistake to think Greek failure would not have any consequences on the wider world. 

 

Lew said, "The notion that there is no contagion, I think it’s a mistake to think that a failure is no consequences outside of Greece. We don’t know the exact scope."

 

Lew added that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) needs to be flexible to avoid unnecessary crisis if Greece is willing to reforms.  

  

 

 

 

 

 

May 27,2015

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BoC on hold and USD/CAD towards 1.2550 – BBH


 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at BBH expects the BoC to remain on-hold today, while the pair could gain further traction to the mid-1.2500s.

 

Key Quotes

 

“In an otherwise featureless North American session, the Bank of Canada meets”.

 

“The overnight rate is widely expected to remain unchanged at 0.75%. The key will be the accompanying statement”.

 

“The Bank of Canada previously anticipated that economic activity would pick up in H2”.

 

“There seems little reason to second guess that assessment at this juncture”.

 

“On the eve of the April 15 meeting, the US dollar was trading near CAD1.2485. It is now changing hands near CAD1.2445 and looks poised to extend its gains. The next target is near CAD1.2550”.   

  

 

 

 

 

 

May 27,2015

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GBP/USD drops to session low of 1.5376


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The USD buyers are back amid data thin European calendar, pushing the GBP/USD pair lower to a fresh session low of 1.5376 levels. 

 

Rejected at 1.5425

 

The pair ran into offers at the high of 1.5425, resulting in a drop to its 200-DMA located at 1.5402. The bod tone on the USD got more pronounced as the pair fell below 1.5402. 

 

Moreover, the interest rate outlook in the US is driving the currency markets at the moment. Consequently, the USD resumed its uptrend after having witnessed moderate correction in the late Asian/early European session. 

 

GBP/USD Technical Levels

 

The pair currently trades at 1.5385, with the immediate support seen at 1.5352 and 1.5337-1.5530. On the upside, major hurdle is seen at 1.5415-1.5425, followed by another hurdle at 1.5470. 

 

 

 

 

May 27,2015

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


 

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