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EUR/USD extends pullback to fresh daily lows


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD fell further at the beginning of the American session and made fresh daily lows as the greenback recovers ground, underpinned by upbeat US initial jobless claims data.

 

EUR/USD has lost more than 150 pips during the last hours, after being rejected from a 10-week high of 1.1391. The pair had rallied over the past few sessions, mainly driven by dollar weakness amid disappointing economic data.

 

Meanwhile, media reports suggesting a Greek deal is unlikely for Monday has also weighed on the shared currency. 

 

At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1265, 0.71% below its opening price, having scored a daily low of 1.1236 in recent dealings. 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD hits fresh lows, approaches 0.7900


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD broke below 0.7930 and dropped to 0.7909 hitting a fresh daily lows as the US dollar strengthened across the board. The pair moved sideways during the European session between 0.7965 and 0.7930 before breaking to the downside. 

 

AUD/USD still up for the week despite rate cut and jobs data 

 

The aussie continues to trade above the levels it opened on Monday against greenback despite the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and also after today’s employment report. In Australia the unemployment rose to 6.2% in April from 6.1% while a net 2,900 jobs were lost in the economy; analyst were expecting a gain of 4,000. 

 

The recent slide to fresh lows was boosted by a stronger dollar in the market, following better than expected jobless claims data in the US. So far the area above 0.7900 capped the decline but the pair continues under bearish pressure in the short term. 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD hits fresh lows, approaches 0.7900


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD broke below 0.7930 and dropped to 0.7909 hitting a fresh daily lows as the US dollar strengthened across the board. The pair moved sideways during the European session between 0.7965 and 0.7930 before breaking to the downside. 

 

AUD/USD still up for the week despite rate cut and jobs data 

 

The aussie continues to trade above the levels it opened on Monday against greenback despite the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and also after today’s employment report. In Australia the unemployment rose to 6.2% in April from 6.1% while a net 2,900 jobs were lost in the economy; analyst were expecting a gain of 4,000. 

 

The recent slide to fresh lows was boosted by a stronger dollar in the market, following better than expected jobless claims data in the US. So far the area above 0.7900 capped the decline but the pair continues under bearish pressure in the short term. 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/CAD consolidates around 1.2150


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CAD pushed higher during the American session as the loonie weakened in tandem with oil prices ahead of employment data on Friday from both Canada and the US.

 

USD/CAD regained the 1.2100 mark and rallied to a high of 1.2157 before finding resistance and settling in a slim range just below. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.2145, recording a 0.83% gain on the day.

 

Tomorrow, payrolls data will be release in both countries. In the US, a 224K job gain is expected after creating only 126K in March. Meanwhile in Canada, consensus calls for a 5K loss following a 28.7K rise the prior month.

 

USD/CAD technical perspective

 

“USDCAD rejects sub-1.20 levels again; strong rebound will accelerate above 1.22 towards 1.2450”, said the TD Securities team. 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD still seen squeezing higher – Scotiabank


 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, the pair could still have room for another temporary squeeze higher.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The focus for Europe has been its bond market, with yields driving higher and creating cascading effects across markets. Greece risk is ongoing with next week’s bond payment a major focus”.

 

“EURUSD short‐term technicals: bullish—with strong upward momentum driving EUR to fresh highs and above its 23.6% Fibo retracement (1.1292) and its 100‐day MA at 1.1250”.

 

“The risk for EUR is a temporary test higher still before it stabilizes and then fades lower. Support lies at the 100‐day of 1.1250 while resistance lies at 1.1400”. 

 

 

 

 

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WTI testing lows sub-$60.00


 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The barrel of the American benchmark for the light crude oil is extending the drop from recent highs beyond $62.00/bbl on Thursday.

 

WTI worried about Iran

 

Market participants remain vigilant on headlines from the nuclear talks between Iran and six world’s powers. Prospects of an agreement by end of June could potentially see Iran’s sanctions lifted, allowing the Middle East oil-producer country to resume its production, exerting downside pressure on prices as a consequence. 

 

In the same tone, prices could be under pressure as US oil production could resume its upside following the recent drop in inventories after 17 consecutive weeks of gains.

 

WTI relevant levels

 

The barrel of WTI is losing 1.35% at $59.58 with the immediate support at $59.09 (low May 7) ahead of $58.63 (low May 5) and finally $58.37 (low Apr.30). On the other direction, a breakout of $61.31 (high May 7) would aim for $62.58 (2015 high May 6) and then $63.03 (high Dec.8). 

 

 

 

 

 

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Election guide - Labour party - BBH


 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman offered an in depth insight to the UK election in a guide, start with the Labour:

 

"The first exit polls for the UK election are expected to start coming out at 22:00 GMT today. We think that a clear picture of the voting outcome will emerge around 4:00-5:00 GMT on Friday. Here is a quick party by party guide and analysis."

 

"Labour: Expected to get 267 seats from 258 currently. It would likely pick up 38 seats from the Conservatives and 9 from other parties, while losing 38 to the SNP. Most projections still give a minority Labour government the highest odds. For example, odds implied by Betfair suggest a 36.4% chance of a Labour minority government. This would require the support of the SNP, either explicitly in a coalition (contradicting campaign pledges) or implicitly (for example via a Labour-LibDem coalition with support of the SNP in vote of confidences). A Labour victory would probably be a mild negative for markets. Investors are already prepared for a hung parliament and know that Labour has a good chance of leading the new government. So it wouldn’t be a major surprise. Moreover, a more pro-growth approach could benefit prove to be positive in the medium-term and taking the EU referendum off the table kills one major tail risk for the pound." 

 

 

 

 

 

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OctaFX.com-One more reason to join OctaFX Demo Contests!


 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD visiting highs on Payrolls


 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The upside momentum is picking up pace around the euro on Friday, with EUR/USD now climbing to fresh daily highs.

 

EUR/USD stronger following in line NFP

 

The pair is reverting its initial downside after the US economy added 223K jobs during April, a tad below consensus at 225K albeit up from March’s 85K (revised from 126K). Further data showed the jobless rate ticked lower to 5.4%.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.10% at 1.1277 and a breakout of 1.1300 (psychological level) would expose 1.1393 (high May 7). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 1.1182 (low May 8) followed by 1.1175 (low May 6) and finally 1.1100 (psychological level). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Canada lost 19,700 jobs in April


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by Statistics Canada on Friday showed the Canadian economy lost 19,700 jobs in April, which was higher than the estimated job losses of 5000. In the previous month, the economy had added 28.7K jobs. 

 

The April labour force survey says the country added 46,900 net full-time positions and shed 66,500 part-time jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.8%, contradicting expectation of an uptick to 6.9%. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate ticked lower to 65.8% in April from 65.9% in March.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/CHF oscillates after US employment data


 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF oscillated between daily highs and lows as the dollar searches for direction following the release of US nonfarm payrolls.

 

Data showed, US economy added 223,000 new jobs in April, slightly below the 224,000 expected while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% from 5.5% the previous month. However, the bounce was offset by the nasty revision for March, down to 85K from 126K previously estimated.

 

USD/CHF dropped to a low of 0.9495 and then jumped to a high of 0.9277 as investors continue to digest data. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9235, still 0.23% above its opening price. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gold prints fresh session highs on the mixed NFP report


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices rose to a session high of USD 1193.3/Oz, before paring gains to trade at USD 1189.8/Oz after the labor department data in the US showed the economy shed 39K jobs in the previous two months. 

 

Gold: Stuck at 50-DMA

 

The metal is once again having a tough time in sustaining above its 50-DMA currently located at USD 1190.87. The gains could have been capped as the economy added 223K jobs in April after having added just 84K jobs in March. The rebound in April is more or less in line with the Fed’s view that job markets should remain robust despite slowdown in the first quarter. 

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

The immediate resistance is seen at the daily high of 1193.3, above which gains could be extended to 1200.00. On the flip side, a break below 1181.6, could drive the metal down to 1177.5-1169.6. 

 

 

 

 

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NZD/USD moves off monthly lows after US employment data


 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The US dollar weakened across the board in the aftermath of the US nonfarm payrolls report, and sent NZD/USD to fresh daily highs.

 

Data showed US economy added 223K new jobs in April, just below the 224K expected while the unemployment rate edged down to 5.4%. However, the bounce in hiring was offset by the nasty revision for March figure, which was cut down to 85K from 126K previously estimated.

 

NZD/USD bounced from a 1-month low and spiked to daily high of 0.7482 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7470, recording a 0.33% gain on the day.

 

NZD/USD levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 0.7495 (100-hour SMA) and 0.7528 (May 7 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.7421 (daily low) and 0.7400 (psychological level). 

 

 

 

 

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USD/CAD approaches 1.2100


 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After a quick knee-jerk to the 1.2040 region, USD/CAD has now returned to the area of 1.2100 following US Non-farm Payrolls and Canadian data.

 

USD/CAD back from 1.2150

 

Volatility around the pair seems to have eased a tad now, with spot looking to stabilize below the 1.2100 handle following the releases in Canada and the US. It is worth recalling that the US economy created 223K jobs during the last month, in line with expectations, whereas the employment in Canada decreased more than anticipated by 19.7K vs. a forecasted drop of 5K.

 

USD/CAD key levels

 

At the moment the pair is down 33% at 1.2087 a breach of 1.2033 (low May 7) would open the door to 1.1940 (low May 6) and finally 1.1934 (low Jan.19). On the other direction, the initial up barrier lies at 1.2164 (high May 7) ahead of 1.2180 (high May 4) and then 1.2205 (high Apr.27).  

 

 

 

 

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Treasury yields drop on mixed NFP report


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yield on the short duration and long duration US government bonds fell after the data in the US showed the economy added fewer-than-expected jobs in April, leading to a negative bi-monthly job additions. 

 

The 10-year yield now trades 5.2 basis points lower at 2.132%, while the 30-year yield weakened 2.6 basis points to 2.882%. Meanwhile, at the short-end of the curve, the 2-year yield, which mimics the short-term interest rate expectations, fell 4.7 basis points to 0.584%. 

 

The Treasury prices gained after the data showed added 223,000 jobs last month, compared with a forecast for a gain of 228,000 in a Bloomberg survey. However, the yields mainly came under pressure due to the downward revision of the previous month’s print from 126K to 184K, which took the net total for the last two months to -39K.  

 

 

 

 

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EUR/GBP drops below 0.72


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/GBP ran into fresh offers at 0.7250 post which the currency pair fell to a session low of 0.7199. 

 

Euro under pressure ahead of Eurogroup meeting

 

The shared currency is being offered ahead of the Eurogroup meeting, which is expected to end with another stalemate between Greece and its international creditors. The real concern is a possibility of Greece failing to meet its payment to IMF due tomorrow. 

 

Meanwhile, the British Pound is being favored ahead of the BOE meeting, which is likely to be a non-event. However, the GBP/USD pair has taken out key resistance levels to trade near 1.5490 levels, thereby pushing the EUR/GBP cross lower. 

 

EUR/GBP Technical Levels

 

The pair currently trades at 0.7205. The immediate resistance is located at 0.7225, above which gains could be extended to 0.7258 (50-DMA). On the other hand, a failure to rise above 0.72 could send the pair down to 0.7162 (Apr. 16 low). 

 

 

 

 

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BOE maintains Bank rate at 0.5%


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of the purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at GBP 375 billion.

 

The previous move from the BOE was a reduction of 0.5 percentage points in the bank rate to 0.5% on 5 March 2009. The bank’s latest inflation and output projections will be released via its Inflation Report to be published at 10.30 a.m. on Wednesday. On the same day, an open letter from the Governor to the Chancellor of the Exchequer will be published, following the release of data for CPI inflation of 0.0% in March.

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY: consolidation with upside bias – AceTrader


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The AceTrader Team, expects USD/JPY to consolidate in its broad 118.33-122.03 range with a mild upside bias.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Despite dollar's retreat from 120.24 to 119.59 in New York session on Friday, as early rally from 119.06 (Thursday) signals further choppy trading inside the 8-week long broad range of 122.03-118.33 would continue and with mild upside bias, re-test of last week's peak at 120.51 is envisaged but break needed to extend up move from April's low at 118.50 towards 120.84.”

 

“On the downside, only below 119.06 would yield weakness towards 118.70/80 but support at 118.50 should remain intact.” 

 

 

 

 

 

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Payrolls point to a September hike – Danske Bank


 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Signe Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, the Fed could hike in September following the result of April’s Payrolls.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Another 223,000 was added to US employment in April and the unemployment rate declined one notch to 5.4%. The net revision to March and February was -39,000”. 

 

“This leaves three-month average monthly job growth at 191,000, which is just below the pace we think marks the threshold for a first Fed funds rate hike”.

 

“However, if we are right that US economic growth will rebound this quarter, the pace of job growth should remain above 200,000 in coming months”.

 

“Markets reacted by sending US rates lower. It is likely expectations on job growth were lifted by the release of strong jobless claims data on Thursday and there was some payback after the increase in yields over the past one and a half weeks”.

 

“Looking ahead, we continue to expect a first Fed funds rate hike in September, which is earlier than the current market pricing of a December hike”.

 

“More important though, the pace of rate hikes implied by market rates is in our view too slow. Thus, we expect history to repeat itself and rates to move higher across the curve in coming months, most pronounced in the 2-5Y segment, as we move closer to the first rate hike”. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Brent Crude ignores Chinese stimulus


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Brent Crude prices ignored the interest rate cut in China to trade with moderate losses on the back of a stronger US dollar. 

 

Strong USD weighs

 

A stronger US dollar following the positive US non-farm payrolls last week put pressure on oil prices on Monday. The USD index rose 0.32% to trade at 95.21. Earlier today in the Asian session, prices rose to a high of USD 65.70/barrel, before falling to an intraday low of USD 64.47/barrel. 

 

However, the losses were restricted after the Reuters data confirmed China as the top importer of Crude in the world in April. The news saw prices recover slightly to trade closer to USD 65.00/barrel. 

 

Brent Crude Technical Levels

 

The immediate resistance is located at 65.70, above which gains could be extended to 66.85 (200-DMA). On the flip side, a break below 64.20-63.89 could drive the prices lower to 62.50 levels. 

 

 

 

 

 

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CFTC: USD net longs at lowest level since December 14 – Rabobank


 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Team shares the IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning as at 5 May 2015.

 

Key Quotes

 

“USD longs fell for the third consecutive week as investors repositioned for a later first Fed rate hike. Although net positioning is still firmly in long territory, USD net longs are at their lowest level since December of last year.”

 

“EUR shorts pared back further, though they remain at fairly elevated levels. Better economic data in the Eurozone is supportive, though Greek concerns remain a drag on the EUR.”

 

“GBP net shorts dropped just ahead of the UK general election last week. News that the right leaning Conservative party have managed to win a majority is likely to lend further support to GBP.”

 

“JPY shorts increased markedly. Talk of a summer rate cut from the BoJ remains in light of slow Japanese growth and inflation data.”

 

“CHF net positions have held just above zero for six consecutive weeks with Grexit uncertainty likely a factor.”

 

“AUD positions jumped sharply back into positive territory on talk that the RBA’s easing cycle may be over. CAD net shorts decreased further as rebounding oil prices support the currency.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD weighed by uncertainty over Greece


 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD managed to stabilize below 1.1200 on Monday but remains vulnerable as Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels to negotiate Greek debt.

 

EUR/USD retreated to a 6-day low at the 1.1130 zone and following a short-lived bounce that was capped by 1.1195, it came under renewed pressure during the European session. The pair is trading near daily lows at the 1.1150 zone, where it trades 0.48% lower on the day.

 

EUR/USD is falling for third day in a row after being rejected from a 2-month high of 1.1391 last week. 

 

Greece has to repay €750 million on Tuesday to the International Monetary Fund, while negotiations with the Eurogroup are still in progress. Few analyst are expecting a deal on Monday.

 

 

EUR/USD technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, EUR/USD could find immediate supports at 1.1132 (daily low), 1.1100 (psychological level) and 1.1065 (May 5 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.1205 (daily high), 1.1228 (100-day SMA) and 1.1287 (May 8 high). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Oil to stay below USD 100/barrel until next decade – OPEC’s draft strategy report


 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Reuters, on Monday, reported that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) does not see oil prices consistently trading at USD 100/barrel until next decade. 

 

The OPEC’s draft strategy report is reportedly carrying the pessimistic forecast, which may result in OPEC switching back to production quotas. The quotas/limits were abandoned in 2011 as small producers struggled to compete with large exporters. As per WSJ report, the new limits would allow the small producers to produce more. The report also says the limits would be considered if the OPEC’s share of the global market fell below 32%. 

 

The draft document may be subject to change ahead of the next OPEC meeting in June. Crude prices have weakened slightly after Reuters and WSJ reported the story. 

 

 

 

 

May 11,2015

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