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Chronicles of Euro Nosedive

What to expect from EUR/USD in 2015-2016

 

Beyond all doubt, the vast majority of broker companies and traders consider EUR/USD as one of the major trading assets. The pair’s close correlation with key macroeconomic indices allows for quite precise long-term forecasts that, in turn, provide fairly good guidance for currency market players and permit them to open positions following a current global trend.

The EUR/USD pair reached a peak of 1.6000 in 2008, after which its cyclical downturn began, accompanied by an active fight between the bulls and the bears. Nowadays, the pair is at the levels of 1996-1997 but apparently it’s not the bottom and the fall is set to continue. 

The situation in Greece vividly exposed the eurozone’s stability issues. Even if the Greek debt disaster was managed (not resolved but at least put off for the time being), in Bloomberg’s view, the euro’s appeal as a global reserve currency has been seriously questioned.

According to Bloomberg, since the start of the debt crisis five years ago, the share of the euro in the global currency basket has contracted by about a third and makes just 22% now. Central banks tend to buy dollars and yens instead of gold and euros. Daisuke Karakama, Mizuho Corporate Bank market economist, who also worked in the European Commission, says that central bank chiefs are no-nonsense about the euro’s possible collapse. For the last quarter of 2014 alone, reserve managers of central banks sold nearly 100 billion euro.

Up to a point, ECB President Mario Draghi welcomed the easing of the monetary policy and the decline of the euro, hoping to shore up the eurozone's economy, but that scenario appeared alarming to his counterparts in other countries. This year the euro has already shed about 7% of its value, and, in Société Générale strategist D. Fairmont’s opinion, the main problem currently is that we don’t foresee the bottom for this currency. Capital flight from the EU is on the rise, and by 2017 it can reach an astronomical amount of 4 trillion euro. At this point, the world’s financial agencies and banks are revising their forecasts for the euro at a run. 

Morgan Stanley strategists say that they still have a bearish outlook for the euro since low yielding European assets encourage local funds to move their investments abroad. The interest-rate-growth differentials favor the dollar.  According to Morgan Stanley’s predictions, the euro will reach parity with the dollar at the end of this year. The rate for the end of 2016 is forecast at 0.9500 while by the end of 2017 the euro is expected to fall to the level of 2001-2002 and cost 85-95 US cents. Deutsche Bank voices similar figures. With this, National Australia Bank experts are more pessimistic about the euro’s prospects and believe that the EUR/USD ratio can reach 1.0000 already in the middle of this fall. 

John Gordon, leading expert with international broker NordFX, says, “The summary of the opinions of a host of influential monetary officials may suggest that the euro will drop even more rapidly and EUR/USD can get to a 0.8200-0.8400 low by mid-2016, followed by a gradual rise to 0.9000.”

As for the eurozone economy, the European Commission still seems to reckon (not without reason) that a weakened euro will eventually improve the competitive performance of European goods and increase eurozone GDP.  “Europe’s economic outlook is a little brighter today,” announced Pierre Moscovici, French Finance Minister and European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs. Brussels believes that GDP growth will make 1.3% in 2015 and continue to 1.9% in 2016.

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Forex Forecast for 7-11 September 2015

 

Let’s review last week’s predictions:

- the forecast for EUR/USD was fulfilled by at least 95%.  As predicted, the pair spent the week revolving around the Pivot Point at 1.1200.  In accordance with the indications of graphical analysis, the pair went up at the start of the week and then made a U-turn. However, the pair’s volatility was weaker than assumed;

- pursuant to the forecast, GBP/USD tested the minimum level around 1.5330-1.5350 several times at the beginning of the week. The testing was so successful that, after breaching support and defying the analysts’ expectations, the pair descended even more to the low of 1 June; 

- in the forecasts about USD/JPY, 45% of the analysts and 71% of the indicators predicted the bulls to have the upper hand but that turned out to be incorrect. Already by 1 September, the pair reached the first support level, entered into a sideways trend and, having breached support at 119.50, continued downwards at the end of the week;

- as for USD/CHF, the indicators staunchly supporting the pair’s rise were right. So were 50% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1, although the pair’s growth wasn’t as rapid as the latter had predicted.

 

Forecast for the coming week.

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:

- most analysts’ expectation for EUR/USD is a sideways trend with the main support around 1.0925. At the same time, 18% of the experts say that this support may be broken through and the pair may fall to 1.0812. The indicators on H5 and D1 confirm the bears’ advantage while graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that the pair will be able to maintain its sideways trend with a 1.1140 Pivot Point for some time;

- the indicators on all main timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 show that GBP/USD will fall further to 1.5100. However, considering that the pair is currently at the bottom boundary of a descending corridor, there may be a rebound towards the corridor’s upper boundary of 1.5225-1.5255 first. If it’s broken, the pair could start moving upward and return to around 1.5325;

- it goes without saying that all the indicators foresee a continuing descent for USD/JPY. Graphical analysis, on the contrary, suggests that the pair has already reached a strong enough support level and a rebound to at least 119.80 (forecast on Н1) or even higher to 120.50 (forecast on Н4) could follow shortly. The opinions of 83% of the experts add that USD/JPY will be moving along the ascending corridor and rather quickly return to 123.00. The main support level will be around 118.40;  

- as for USD/CHF, 74% of the indicators, 100% of the experts and graphical analysis insist on the pair’s rise in its efforts to achieve the 1.0000 landmark in the next few weeks. Such unanimity is definitely a cause for concern, especially taking into account what the pair has done for the past 14 days. The key support this week will be at 0.9680. If it’s broken, the bears will take over once again and the coveted peak will be out of reach for a while.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 14-18 September 2015

 

First, a few words about last week’s forecast:

- the two-week-old prediction about EUR/USD’s upward drive panned out.  In line with the forecast made seven days ago, the pair tried to hold in its sideways trend for some time but then the bulls got a distinct advantage and, instead of falling, the pair shot upwards, first turning the 1.1140 Pivot Point into support and then leaving it far behind altogether;

- a possible scenario for GBP/USD was a bounce to the upper boundary of the descending corridor, breaking through it and rising to around 1.5325, which actually happened. The surge was so big that the indicated level turned into support. The pair bounced off it and went further up on Wednesday;

- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100%. After rebounding from the bottom boundary of the three-week-old horizontal corridor, the pair immediately went up and finished the five days exactly where expected – around 120.50;

- both indicators and experts turned out to be correct about USD/CHF’s upward strive.  The key support level was set at 0.9680. While leaning on it, the pair managed to reach 0.9820 twice mid-week, after which it returned to its initial position.

 

Forecast for the coming week.

Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- it appears impossible to make a clear forecast about EUR/USD this week. Thus, 45% of the analysts, the indicators on H4 and D1 and graphical analysis on H1 insist on the pair’s further rise at least to strong resistance around 1.1450. The remaining 55% of the experts predict a fall to 1.1100 or even lower to 1.1000. It looks like next week one of these scenarios will play out – either the pair rises to the mentioned level of resistance and rebounds downwards, or it just falls. The start of the week is most likely to unveil which scenario will come true;

- a similar scenario can be foreseen for the GBP/USD pair. According to 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on all the main timeframes, a 1.5480-1.5500 range will present very strong resistance and GBP/USD won’t be able to overcome it despite all its efforts. Therefore, in the next few days, the pair is expected to fall to 1.5335, then rebound to 1.5420 and finally reach last week’s low around 1.5170. An alternative point of view suggests a continuation of the ascending corridor and the pair’s rise to 1.5680;

- the indicators and 66% of the experts predict that USD/JPY will stay in its 3-week-old sideways trend with fluctuations around a 120.60 Pivot Point. Graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 doesn’t offer any forecasts, which confirms the prediction of the sideways movement. The main support will be around 118.60, with resistance around 121.40. However, 34% of the analysts point out that the pair may return to the area above 123.00;

- most analysts, indicators and graphical analysis on D1 continue to insist on the pair’s drive to reach the landmark of 1.0000. The nearest target is to consolidate in a 0.9800-0.9900 range. As before, support will be around 0.9680, with the next level 100 points lower.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 21-25 September 2015

 

First, a review of the previous week:

- there were two possible scenarios for EUR/USD – either a rise to resistance around 1.1450 and a downward bounce or just a fall. In fact, both options played out – at the beginning of the week, the pair started to fall, then it went up to the 1.1450 resistance and, after a rebound, crashed to last Monday’s starting point;

- GBP/USD accurately followed the prediction during the first half of the week – having knocked on resistance around 1.5480, the pair rolled down to its support at 1.5335 and shot upwards.  However, on the news from Europe, the rebound was so powerful that the pair finally broke through the resistance at 1.5480-1.5500, turning it into support and reaching the area it had been in for the second half of the summer;

- as predicted, USD/JPY continued its sideways trend it had entered at the end of August and narrowed both its lower and upper oscillation boundaries by 40 points;

- USD/CHF didn’t meet the experts’ expectation of a rise and actually spent the week in a sideways movement. Although, on Thursday, following the Federal Reserve’s announcements, the pair did drop but resumed its normal course already on Friday.

 

Forecast for the upcoming week.

Generalizing the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:

- a two-week ascending channel is clearly visible on H4 for EUR/USD. The pair ended up at its bottom boundary 1.1300 last Friday. Rather strong support is located nearby at 1.1280. For this reason, almost all experts and indicators agree that the pair will be approaching the channel’s upper boundary of 1.1450 in the next few days. Further, opinions diverge – 57% of the analysts, the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H1 suggest that the pair will continue its upward movement to a 1.1500-1.1550 area while the rest 43% of the analysts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4 predict that the pair will transition into a sideways trend with a 1.1360 Pivot Point;

- most of what’s been written above for EUR/USD can be applied to GBP/USD which is now at the bottom boundary of an ascending corridor and close to strong support at 1.5500. The pair should rebound off this level to the upper boundary at 1.5700. After that, the pair will either break it and hike 100 more points up or transition into a sideways trend;

- both experts and indicators forecast that USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend with prevailing bearish tendencies. The Pivot Point will be at 119.80, the first support – at 119.00 and the next support level – at 118.45. Resistance will be at 121.00 and 121.50;

- the majority of the analysts and the indicators agree that USD/CHF will spend this week in a 0.9550-0.9675 corridor where the pair was end of August - beginning of September. Only 18% of the analysts believe that the pair will go up to a 0.9675-0.9775 range.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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How to Survive Global Financial Apocalypse

 

Can the latest events in the world be viewed as precursors of an economic collapse on a global scale?  Currencies soar and crash, there’re bearish forecasts for the markets of almost all large countries, falling oil prices and plunging shares of major companies. Many respectable analysts believe that this is just the beginning and the worst of it will be staggering.  

 

Predictions suggest that in the next 5 to 10 years, valuable securities will become literally value-less as their worth is steadily moving toward zero. According to Marc Faber, analyst, investment fund manager and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, the US stock market could fall 20-40 percent. Henry Blodget, editor-in-chief of Business Insider, raises the ante by 10 percent as he thinks that the drop can make 30-50 percent. 

 

Such a gloomy prospect is awaiting not only securities but also money. In his interview on Bloomberg TV, Marc Faber said, “…the whole financial system will one day collapse…, …a lot of government bonds will either default or they will have to print so much money that the purchasing power of money will depreciate very rapidly."

 

”With these stupid governments printing trillions and trillions of new currency units,” says investor and Casey Research chairman Doug Casey, “it’s building up to a catastrophe of historic proportions. Most of the banks in the world are bankrupt.”

 

It would be a different matter, were it just banks! In the words of Egon von Greyerz (Switzerland), founder and managing partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG, “No major nation in the West can repay its debts. The same is true for Japan and most of the emerging markets. Europe is a failed experiment for socialism and deficit spending. China is a massive bubble, in terms of its stock markets, property markets and shadow banking system. Japan is also a basket case and the U.S. is the most indebted country in the world…”

 

Von Greyerz continues to build up pressure, “So we will see twin $200 trillion debt and $1.5 quadrillion derivatives implosions. That will lead to the most historic wealth destruction ever in global stock, with bond and property markets declining at least 75-95 percent.”

 

Let’s tally up all the above:

- oil prices are falling;

- real estate is becoming cheaper;

- banks are bankrupt;

- inflation devalues currencies;

- the stock market is sinking;

- forget about bonds – junk is more expensive these days.

 

At this point, the burning question of 19th-century utopian philosophers comes to mind. “What is to be done?” – they inquired in vain. Come the 21st century, very same Marc Faber told Bloomberg TV that he’d go for precious metals.   

 

Well, you could take up the renowned expert’s advice but for the IMF data that central banks gradually reduce their purchases of gold. For instance, last May only seven tons of gold were bought mainly by Russia and Kazakhstan.

 

According to Thomson Reuters GFMS, as of late, gold supply by far exceeds demand, which results in constantly falling gold prices. Dropping about 40 percent against the maximum, all summer long the price tried to break through the key support level of $1,140 per ounce and managed to do so at the end of July. Then the price returned to around $1,140. However, it’s the first step that counts – investors realized that the price could well go below $1,000 and even more down. (Mind that only 15 years ago this precious metal was traded just at about $300.)  

 

Nonetheless, despite the seemingly unfavorable current situation, gold investments can turn out a sound decision ultimately. F. William Engdahl, American political economist, says that the prices on the New York and London exchanges don’t reflect the actual worth of gold as a reserve currency and a standard of monetary stability. He believes that large private and central banks in the West are artificially restraining gold prices as more expensive gold, and in the hands of others, threatens the dollar as the main global reserve currency.

 

“Nowadays China exerts more influence over world exchanges,” says John Gordon, leading analyst at international brokerage NordFX. “The events of the past few months clearly prove this. At the beginning of the year, experts predicted that feverish purchasing of Chinese stocks (which was inevitable) could result in the transfer of assets into gold. Thus, already in May, China and the Shanghai Gold Exchange established the world’s largest gold investment fund to the tune of 16 billion dollars. The fund will invest in gold mining projects not only in China but along all of the Eurasian Silk Road, including Russia. These two countries – China and Russia – seek to turn their national currencies into global or regional reserve currencies and are eager to back them up with the metal. Therefore, they’re likely to increase their gold stock and push the price of gold up by doing that.”

 

“It’s noteworthy that China and Russia are the world’s first and third largest gold producers respectively. South Africa is the sixth, Uzbekistan is the eighth, with Kazakhstan also among the leaders. All these states are either BRICS members or part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, that is entities that follow an independent policy in contrast to the current system based on an inflated dollar. This, of course, cannot but alarm the proponents of the dollar rule – Wall Street, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury.” In conclusion John Gordon says, “At this time, the West still has the upper hand but the balance is slowly but surely shifting to the East. I envision the deciding showdown quite soon.”

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Forex Forecast for 28 September - 2 October 2015

 

Let’s review last week’s forecast:

- the EUR/USD pair entered a sideways trend after breaking through support around 1.1280 and turning it into resistance;

- contrary to all the predictions, the GBP/USD pair went down sharply, returning to the lows of  the beginning of June and the beginning of September. Therefore, if there even was a sideways trend, it was in a very large range of 1.5175-1.5815;

- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100%. The pair spent the whole week in a sideways trend in the precisely set boundaries of 119.00-121.00;

- the USD/CHF pair was also predicted a sideways trend by 82% of the analysts but experience has it that the opinion of the majority isn’t always correct. So, this time it’s 18% of the analysts who were right insisting that the pair would move up and transition to 0.9675-0.9775. The pair tried to break even higher but finished the week near the upper boundary of the indicated range.

 

Forecast for the coming week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on most different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- regarding EUR/USD, 72% of the experts and indicators on D1 predict a fall to 1.1000. Alternatively, 28% of the analysts and indicators on H4 insist that the pair will return to resistance at 1.1450. As for graphical analysis, in the short term, it predicts a fall to support at 1.1120 followed by a return to resistance at 1.1210;

- all the indicators point to a downward movement for GBP/USD. The analysts differ – only 20% of them agree with the indicators and believe that the fall will continue to at least 1.5000 while 80% of the analysts are certain that the pair has already reached its low and should now rebound towards resistance at 1.5340. Graphical analysis also shows that GBP/USD will remain in a sideways trend for some time, fluctuating between 1.5150 and 1.5340;

- most experts and indicators on H4 predict that USD/JPY will move upwards to 123.00. In this case, support will be at 121.30. However, according to 12% of the analysts and indicators on D1, the pair will lean on support at 119.00 and continue its four-week sideways trend. The next support in this case will be 118.50;

- the majority of both analysts (63%) and indicators believe that USD/CHF has resumed its movement to the 1.0000 landmark. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this and specifies that fluctuations will be in a 0.9670-1.0100 range. An alternative view is that the pair will take a breather and stay in a sideways trend within a 0.9740-0.9840 range.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 5-9 October 2015

 

First, a review of the previous week:

- this time round, the forecast for EUR/USD given by graphical analysis panned out – first, the pair was to go down to 1.1120 and then return to resistance at 1.1210, which happened. After that, the pair moved sideways, turning 1.1210 into a Pivot Point where it finished the week;

- those 80% of the analysts who said that GBP/USD had already reached its low were right. Despite all the efforts by the bulls, a rebound didn’t occur. Instead, the pair followed the predictions of graphical analysis and stayed in a sideways trend all of the last week;

- in line with the forecast of the 12% of the analysts and the indicators on D1, USD/JPY continued its sideways trend. Besides, the D1 chart clearly shows that, after descending from a double top to last spring’s levels and reducing its volatility, USD/JPY formed an almost perfect pennant (or a symmetrical triangle) over the last 6 weeks;

- one of the forecasts for USD/CHF claimed that the pair would continue its sideways movement, which did happen. At the same time, as predicted, support was at 0.9670 (the pair’s main support level for the past 4 weeks). The other mentioned level 0.9740 served as a Pivot Point.

 

Forecast for the coming week.

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:

- both analysts and indicators predict that EUR/USD will stay in its sideways trend. The bottom boundaries are set at 1.1100 and 1.1000. Resistance is likely to be at 1.1300 and 1.4600;

- most experts believe that GBP/USD will also be moving horizontally. The main support level will be at 1.5100, with the main resistance around 1.5300. Graphical analysis on H4, in turn, shows that the pair may bounce higher to around 1.5360, as it happened 8 and 9 September. Alternatively, 17% of the analysts don’t rule out that 1.5100 is still not the bottom and the pair may drop even lower to 1.1470;

- considering that USD/JPY has formed an absolutely symmetrical triangle on D1, the indicators continue to point to a sideways trend. However, the W1 timeframe shows that the triangle isn’t that symmetrical but rather ascending. This pattern is usually indicative of an upward breakout, and 70% of the experts agree with it, believing that the pair should reach at least 122.00 in the long run. The main support remains at 118.50;

- regarding USD/CHF, the lows of 24 August, 18 September and 2 October allow drawing a bullish support line. This is corroborated by 67% of the analysts and indicators on W1 – in the medium term, the bulls will maintain advantage and the pair will be moving up to 0.9900. At the same time, indicators on D1 suggest that the pair will stay in a horizontal trend with a 0.9740 Pivot Point for another week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 12-16 October 2015

 

First, a review of last week’s predictions:

- as expected, EUR/USD spent the week within the indicated boundaries. The bulls had a distinct advantage and, after two failed attempts on Thursday, they managed to break through the first resistance level of 1.1300 on Friday, repeating the scenario of the first ten days of September;

- the forecast for GBP/USD was fulfilled 100%. As predicted, bouncing off support around 1.5100, the pair went up, broke through the main resistance of 1.5300, spent some time around 1.5360 and Friday evening returned to 1.5300;

- the indicators insisted USD/JPY should continue its sideways trend, which happened. Apparently, the bulls and the bears got so weary of fighting that were able only to continue to draw the symmetrical triangle, which they’ve been busy with for the past 7 weeks; 

- the USD/CHF pair was quite unpredictable. First, as suggested, it moved up, then turned the 0.9740 Pivot Point into resistance and entered a sideways trend, finishing the week by falling to support around 0.9590.

 

Forecast for the coming week.

Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:

- regarding EUR/USD, 67% of the analysts agree with the indicators that the pair will reach September’s high of 1.1460. Now the pair is at the upper boundary of the weekly ascending channel, and there are two possible scenarios – either the given boundary line becomes support and the pair immediately goes up, or the scenario of the first half of September is repeated and the pair rebounds to the lower boundary of the corridor (1.1300-1.1315) before continuing its upward movement. This turn of events is strongly supported by graphical analysis on H1;

- a similar pattern is expected for the GBP/USD pair. About 70% of the analysts and indicators on H4 and D1 insist the pair will rise at least to 1.5450 resistance. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 and H4 specifies that at first, the pair may fall to support at 1.5300 (H1) and may even reach the bottom around 1.5250 at the second attempt;

- the seven-week pennant on the USD/JPY chart leaves both analysts and all the tools of technical analysis puzzled. Nonetheless, 33% of the analysts as well as indicators on H4 still have a faint hope that USD/JPY will rise to 121.20 at least. Alternatively, 33% of the analysts expect the pair to fall to around 1.1850, and the remaining third just shrug their shoulders, which doesn’t qualify as a forecast in any way;

- as for USD/CHF, 90% of the analysts believe that the pair will hold in a 0.9540-0.9750 sideways corridor. This forecast is elaborated by graphical analysis on D1 – USD/CHF should first go up to the upper boundary of the corridor, then rebound and drop to 0.9500-0.9570 for 2-3 days before abruptly rising to 0.9900. However, the latter may take place only end of October – early November.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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  • 1 year later...
Dear Clients,

 

Starting from September 4, 2017  it will become even more convenient to carry out transactions with cryptocurrencies. In addition to the CRYPTO account, trading with BTCUSD, LTCUSD and ETHUSD pairs is now available in the Standard account on the MetaTrader 4 platform as well.

 

This decision has been taken based on the results of a survey among traders. The absolute majority of the respondents have expressed the opinion that the possibility of simultaneous trading in currencies, cryptocurrencies and precious metals using one common account, the Standard account, opens up additional possibilities for creating new trading strategies, reducing risks and increasing profits.

 

The traders who prefer to separate transactions with Bitcoin, Litecoin and Etherium from transactions with traditional trading instruments can still use the dedicated CRYPTO account.

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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 11 - 15 September 2017



 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 

- EUR/USD. Since the opinions of the analysts were divided equally, we suggested to focus on the readings of the graphical analysis; both H4 and D1 indicated that the upward trend, which began in January, would continue. The target was the height of 1.2150, which the pair nearly missed, having turned around near the level of 1.2100, subsequently rolling down 70 points and finishing the week at 1.2035; 

 

- Graphical analysis turned out to be right concerning the future of GBP/USD. Supported by 45% of analysts and 80% of indicators, it pointed to its growth to 1.3115. However, unlike EUR / USD, which did not reach the stated goal, GBP / USD, on the contrary, exceeded it, having fixed the maximum of the week at 1.3222;

 

- the US dollar also fell against the Japanese yen. The forecast for the USD/JPY said that the pair would once again try to test the bottom of the mid-term side channel 108.12-114.50. This was exactly what happened. Moreover, the pair tried to break through this support and descended to the level of 107.30. It will be clear in the near future whether this test has been successful or not;

 

- The forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be absolutely accurate. Here, the majority of analysts (about 60%), graphical analysis and more than half of the oscillators on D1 expected that it would again fall to the August 29 minimum at 0.9426. That's exactly what happened, and on Friday, September 8. the pair reached the local bottom at 0.9420.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

– EUR/USD. Forecasting the future of this pair, most analysts (60%), as well as graphical analysis and an absolute majority of indicators, voted for the continuation of the upwards trend of the pair, foreseeing a growth to 1.2150. The following target is 1.2325. Meanwhile, graphical analysis in H4, the quarter of oscillators on D1 signalling that the pair is oversold, and 40% of experts offer an alternative viewpoint. They suggest that the pair will transition to a sideways movement in the 1.1885-1.2070 channel.

As for the longer-term forecast, over 60% of analysts remain bearish in the expectation of the pair’s eventual return to 1.1600;

 

– Experts’ opinions regarding the future of GBP/USD have split almost equally: 30% support the growth of the pair, an equivalent amount believes in a sideways trend, and 40% believe that the pair will fall. 100% of trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1 look northwards, whilst 20% of oscillators are already expecting a southwards reversal. The support levels are at1.2930, 1.3040 and 1.3100. The resistance levels are 1.3265 and 1.3370. The bulls’ final target is 1.3440;

 

– USD/JPY. Here 85% of experts believe that once the pair penetrates the lower border of the intermediate-term sideways channel it will journey southwards, aiming to settle in the 106.00-107.00 area. The remaining 15% of analysts expect a correction and the pair’s return to the resistance at 108.80. The third of oscillators on D1 that indicate the pair is oversold support this scenario;


1505018330_USDJPY_11.09.2017.png



 

– “South and only south” summarises the view of the 90% of analysts who maintain that USD/CHF will continue to mirror the behaviour of EUR/USD and strive to the 0.9250-09.300 area.10% of experts, 20% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1 disagree: they suggest that the pair has nearly reached its minimum (0.9425) and is now waiting to rebound up to the resistance at 0.9540. In the event it penetrates this resistance, they suggest the pair will rise even higher to 0.9260;

 

In conclusion, we offer a summary of the major events that may influence the directions of the trends and the volatility of the currency pairs discussed above. Starting on Tuesday, 12 September and through to the end of the week, we will observe a continuous release of data on the US consumer market. On Thursday, 14th September the central banks of Switzerland and England will announce their rate decisions: most likely these rates will remain unchanged.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. 

 

#eurusd, #gbpusd, #usdjpy, # forex, # forex_forecast, #forex signals, #cryptocurrencies, #bitcoin

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Bitcoin and others: start of the road or start of the end?

 
1505487438_rypto_dream.jpg

 

 
How soon will cryptolorrhagia end? And what awaits investors: wealth and thousands of percent of profit, or a funeral under the rubble of crashed cryptocurrencies?
 
The broker company NordFX offers to earn both on growth, and on the collapse of the cryptocurrency market.
 
Recently, the headlines of financial media have been firmly conquered by bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies:
 
"Parris Hilton," Bloomberg reports, "has been actively engaged in attracting investment in the cryptocurrency (ICO)."
 
"Swiss Railways start selling tickets for bitcoins"
 
"The post of Austria exchanges euro to bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies!"
 
"The Viberate Company has attracted more than $ 10 million in its ICO in just 4 minutes 42 seconds!"
 
Such headlines can not help attracting attention. And, in general, it is more than deserved. For example, the Etherium exchange rate only for the first half of 2017 grew by more than 250%, and the bitcoin, costing in September 2009. less than 0.1 cents, after just eight years, came close to the mark of 5.000 USD. That is, in just eight years, its price has grown 5 million times!
 
Indeed, there is something to ponder over for those who want to seriously increase their capital. Moreover, many forecasts of specialists look more than optimistic.
 
Thus, the British consulting company Juniper Research has calculated that in 2017 the total turnover of cryptocurrencies can overcome the level of 1 trillion US dollars, exceeding the similar result of the previous year by more than 15 times. In addition to bitcoins, a significant contribution has been made by the Etherium and lthe Litecoin.
 
Experts from Pantera Capital Management, Fundstrat Global Advisors and GFI Group Inc. believe that by the end of this year the bitcoin will reach the mark of 6.000 USD, while Standpoint Research predicts its growth in 2018 to $ 7,500.
 
As for a longer-term perspective, Fundstrat and Standpoint Research expects that by 2022 the value of this cryptocurrency will be about 25,000 USD, and after another five years, in 2027, it will reach the level of 50,000 US dollars!
 
But that's not all! For example, the CNBC TV channel has published a forecast of Saxo Bank analyst Kay Van-Petersen, according to which the bitcoin market capitalization in the next decade could reach 1.75 trillion dollars, as a result of which its exchange rate will grow to $ 100,000!
 
"All these forecasts," says John Gordon, leading analyst at brokerage company NordFX, "are warming the market pretty much, attracting new investors, making them cryptomaniacs. However, there are a lot of financiers who see cryptocurrencies as a pyramid that hangs in the air and can collapse at any moment. "
 
"Today, the cryptocurrency market continues to resemble Klondike, attracting speculators and scammers of all stripes," writes The Financial Times. The former director of Yahoo Brad Garlinghouse echoes the publication, according to him, this market requires strong regulation"
 
"Indeed," continues Gordon of NordFX, "the lack of regulation by state bodies discourages many serious investors who fear that cryptocurrencies can be outlawed overnight. Suffice it to recall that when in early September, the Chinese authorities banned the use of ICO to attract funding, the bitcoin suddenly lost 5%, and the Etherium lost 12% in price. "
 
Now the Central Banks of almost all leading financial powers are deciding whether or not to recognize cryptocurrencies at the state level. It will not work just to brush them off, because the regulators are under constant pressure, including by major commercial structures. Thus, according to the analytical company Autonomous, as of the end of August, 55 investment hedge funds have already been involved in cryptocurrency investments. And, according to the Fortune, thirty major banks, technical giants and other organizations, including JP Morgan Chase, Microsoft, Intel, BNP Paribas, BP, Cisco, Credit Suisse, etc. are uniting into a group called the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance to create a network basing on the Etherium.
 
It is said that cryptocurrencies have a great future, but a wild present. According to the strategists of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the situation may change as they continue to grow and the liquidity increases. And, perhaps, the main boom is yet to come, when the giants of the retail sector, such as Amazon, Facebook, Visa and Mastercard, start to accept cryptocurrencies.
 
"Over the past 10 years, our company has earned a reputation as fairly conservative," says NordFX analyst J. Gordon. - We offer only proven products to our customers, but we cannot ignore such a phenomenon as cryptocurrencies. There are now thousands of them, and investments in most of them are excessively risky. Therefore, out of all this diversity, we have selected three of the most popular and promising ones - Bitcoin, Etherium and Litecoin, transactions with which can now be made on our platform.
 
I would like to note that in NordFX, transactions with cryptocurrencies are not exclusive for the elite. They are available not only to large investors, but also to ordinary people with 50 or 100 dollars. Moreover, these transactions can be aimed at both the growth of the crypto currency and its fall, which allows our clients to make profit at any market fluctuations. "
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 18 - 22 September 2017



 

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 

- EUR/USD. Recall that 40% of experts and graphical analysis on H4 expected the pair would transition into a lateral trend in the 1.1885-1.2070 range. At the same time, a number of oscillators on D1 signaled it was overbought, which indicated a possible fall at the beginning of the week. This is what happened. By the evening of Wednesday, 13 September, it had reached this lower border; on Thursday, it made an attempt to break through it. However, the bears' forces were already running out, and in just an hour the pair returned to the set limits, completing the week near 1.1960: the level of the central line of the side channel; 

 

- 30% of experts, 100% of trend indicators, graphical analysis on D1 and 80% of oscillators voted for the growth of GBP/USD last week. 1.3440 was named as the bulls’ goal. However, on Thursday, 14 September, following the publication of the Bank of England's quarterly report and the speech of monetary policy committee member Gertjan Vlieghe in favor of raising the base rate at the next meeting of the Bank of England’s MPC, the pound received an additional upwards push. Having risen by 450 points, it reached the level of 1.3600; 

 

- USD/JPY. Whilst the British pound showed impressive growth relative to the dollar, the Japanese yen demonstrated a fall that was equally impressive. Positive trends emerging in the Japanese economy contributed to the growth of its stock market, but simultaneously pressured the yen. The reduction in the volume of QE (quantitative easing) by the US Federal Reserve and the flow of investment from reliable but not profitable assets to less reliable but more profitable ones also played against the Japanese currency, causing it to lose more than 350 points against the dollar during the week;

 

- Only 10% of experts, 20% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1 sided with the bulls, having calculated that USD/CHF had reached its bottom and would now grow to 0.9620. The pair did indeed immediately go up and reached the height of 0.9700 exceeding expectations. After that, it rolled back 100 points and finished in a strong support / resistance zone at 0.9600. 

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- EUR/USD. After the slowing of the uptrend last week, the experts appear to be disorientated: 40% of them stand for the growth of the pair, 40% for its fall and 20% envisage a sideways trend. Indicators do not bring clarity to the forecast either, demonstrating a similar dispersion in their readings. Graphical analysis on both H4 and D1 is the only forecaster which unreservedly points northwards. Resistance levels are at 1.1985, 1.2075 and 1.2165, whilst supports levels are at 1.1915 and 1.1825.

Dollar pair trends may be influenced to a certain extent by the rate decisions and forecasts made by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, 20 September;

 

- As for the future of GBP/USD, most experts (65%), supported by graphical analysis and 40% of oscillators, expect a correction of the pair down to the level of 1.3500. In the event of a break through this level, the next supports would be 1.3440 and 1.3385.

An alternative point of view, represented by 35% of analysts, 100% of trend indicators and 60% of oscillators, implies a continuation of the uptrend to 1.3665, after which the pair will ascend yet another 100 points higher. The bulls’ final medium-term target is at the level of 1.4000;

 

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair is a lateral trend in which the bears have a slight advantage—at least 85% of analysts voted for this scenario. The support levels are 109.55 and 108.85; the resistances levels are 111.00 and 111.30.

A minority of experts (only 15%) and the majority (about 90%) of indicators side with the bulls. They believe that the pair has returned to the borders of the medium-term side channel. In this case, the short-term goal of the pair is to secure itself in the central zone of 111.00-112.20, whilst the medium-term goal is to reach the upper boundary of the 114.50 channel.

And, of course, we must not forget a Bank of Japan press conference is scheduled for Thursday, 21 September, where a rate decision is expected;


1505647835_USDJPY_22.09.2017.png



 

 

- "South and only southwards" was the forecast for USD/CHF last week. It also remains the forecast for this week. 75% of analysts and the same number of indicators on H4 vote for the scenario in which the pair will again rush to the support at 0.9415.

Meanwhile, 10% of experts and the indicators on D1 vote for a lateral trend.

The pair’s growth is supported by 15% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4. In their opinion, the pair should grow first to 0.9765, and then to 0.9845.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals forex #cryptocurrencies, #bitcoin


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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 25 - 29 September 2017



 

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 

– EUR/USD. Recall that experts appeared to be completely bewildered when giving last week’s forecast: 40% of them voted for the growth of the pair, 40% for its fall and 20% for a sideways trend. The indicators did not clarify the situation either, showing a very similar dispersion in their readings. Graphical analysis was alone in pointing unambiguously to the north, where the pair indeed went, having reached 1.2033 on Wednesday 20 September.

The main event of the day was an atypical meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which confirmed the expediency of another increase in the interest rate in 2017 followed by three increases in 2018. In addition, the Fed, finally, decided to start reducing its balance. All this led to a sharp increase in the dollar, and the EUR/USD suddenly fell 170 points, stopping at 1.1860. After that, the bulls vigorously won back the losses, and the pair finished the week practically at the same place where it started: near 1.1950, having performed the predicted scenarios of all three groups of experts;

 

– As for the future of GBP/USD, most experts (65%), supported by graphical analysis and 40% of oscillators, expected a correction of the pair down to the level of 1.3500. 1.3665 was named the main resistance. This forecast can be considered almost 100% fulfilled, since, adjusting for a standard backlash, the pair remained in this channel.

At the beginning of the week, it dropped to 1.3463. Then, on the back of data on UK retail sales, it began to grow. It then reacted to the Fed meeting, and eventually returned to 1.3500; 

 

– Naturally, USD/JPY could not ignore the news from the US either. In the first half of the week, the forecast for this pair - a sideways trend, for which 85% of analysts voted - was brought to life with an accuracy of 1 point: having started the week at 111.09, it encountered the Fed speech on Wednesday, 20 September at the same position. After that, the yen began to fall and completed the five-day period in the central zone of the mid-term side channel, where it has been moving for more than six months, at 112.00;

 

– USD/CHF. Only 15% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 took the side of the bulls, considering that the pair should grow to the level of 0.9765. But their few voices unexpectedly received active support from the hawks of the Fed, thanks to which the pair almost reached that goal, rising to the height of 0.9746. As for the end of the workweek, it found it in the region of a strong support/resistance level of 0.9700.

 

 

 

As for the forecast for the upcoming week, at the time of writing the results of the federal elections in Germany are not yet known.

The impact these elections may have on the movement of the major currency pairs requires no explanation. Meanwhile, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

 

– EUR/USD. Thanks to the Fed decision on a fourfold increase in the interest rate in 2017-18, most experts (60%) have sided with the bears, expecting the dollar to initially rise and then fall. However, the range of fluctuations indicated by analysts is within the limits of 1.1800-1.2100, which allows us to speak about the continuation of the lateral trend that began in the last week of August.

As for graphical analysis, for the next two or three weeks it predicts a fall of the pair to 1.1650. But this can only be said if the elections in Germany do not bring unexpected surprises to the market;


1506234281_EURUSD_25.09.2017.png



 

– As for the future of GBP/USD, it is clear that most of the indicators on D1 are looking northward. As for their colleagues on H4, the vector is directed horizontally eastwards. Graphical analysis expects the continuation of the lateral trend in the 1.3460-1.3660 range as well. Experts' opinions for the next week are as follows: 35% side with the bulls, 45% side with the bears, and 20% give a neutral forecast. If we move to the medium-term analysis, we now see that 80% of experts vote for the growth of the dollar and the fall of the pound. The support levels are 1.3460, 1.3160 and 1.2850. The resistance levels are 1.3660, 1.3835 and 1.4000.   

 

– USD/JPY. 85% of analysts, supported by one third of oscillators on D1, expect the pair to fall to 110.70, after which the uptrend may continue. The targets are 112.65, 113.50 and 114.50. Support is at the levels 111.10, 110.70, 109.85 and 109.40;

 

– 80% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 predict the growth of USD/CHF to 0.9770 and, in the event of its breakthrough, 50 points higher to the level of 0.9820. The final target is the height of 0.9900. However, only 20% of experts agree with this point of view. The remaining 80% expect, instead, a fall of the pair and its movement in the 0.9585-0.9770 range. This scenario is supported by 25% of oscillators who signal this pair is overbought. If the pair breaks through the lower border of the channel, the next support would be at 0.9525.

 

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy # forex #forex_example #signals forex #cryptocurrencies, #bitcoin


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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 02 - 06 October 2017



 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 

– The Fed decision on a fourfold increase in the interest rate in 2017-18 continued to dominate over the pair EUR/USD, as well as the results of the German elections, not ideal for Frau Merkel. Thanks to these factors, as predicted by most experts, the euro lost more than 230 points by the middle of the week. However, later it played back some losses, rising to the horizon of 1.1815;

 

– As for the GBP/USD, here again the dollar showed growth, but not as impressive as in the case of the euro. The British pound lost only about 100 points over the past week;

 

– USD/JPY. 85% of analysts, supported by one third of oscillators on D1, were expecting a correction of this pair down, after which the uptrend was supposed to continue. That is exactly what happened, however, the correction was less than expected. It was already on Monday, September 25, that the pair dropped to 111.50, after which it turned and continued its growth, reaching the height of 113.25 on Wednesday. As for the end of the week, it completed the five-day period at the level of 112.50, which gives grounds to speak about the gradual slowdown of the upward momentum; 

 

– USD/CHF. 80% of the experts, the same number of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 indicated the level of 0.9770 as the weekly maximum for this pair. And they were 100% right: it was exactly this height that was reached on September 27, and it was there that the local trend reversed, resulting in the pair finishing even 20 points lower on Friday than at the beginning of the week.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

– the situation for the pair EUR/USD looks extremely uncertain, thus the opinions of the experts are split exactly in half, 50% of them are for the growth of the pair, 50% are for its fall. As for trend indicators, on H4, two thirds of them are colored green and one third are red, and on D1, it's the other way around. Oscillators on H4 give priority to the green colour as well, thus entering irreconcilable conflict with the red oscillators on the daily time frame.

As for graphical analysis, according to its readings, the pair will again try to get close to the height of 1.2100 in the next 2-3 weeks, after which it will turn to the south. The main target in this case will be support 1.1660.

One should bear in mind that the results of the ECB meeting on Wednesday, October 4, as well as the publication of data on new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) on October 6, can influence the trend formation. As expected, this figure may fall from 156K to 98K, and even to 75K. It is generally believed that such a sharp decline in the NFP leads to a weakening of the dollar. However, large players have often played against this rule recently, as a result of which many traders incur serious losses;

 

– speaking about the future of the GBP/USD, most analysts (55%) look to the south. Trend indicators on H4 and graphical analysis support the bearish mood as well. On D1, graphical analysis suggests that by the end of autumn, the pair will fall to the lower boundary of the medium-term rising channel, which began this January. The target is 1.4670. The nearest resistance in this case is 1.3500.

As for the rest of the experts, only 20% of them voted for the rise to 1.3600, and 25% are for the sideways trend. All oscillators and trend indicators on D1 have taken a neutral position as well;


1506841906_GBPUSD_02.10.2017.png



 

– USD/JPY. 55% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis and 25% of oscillators, believe that the pair entered the correction phase, and now it expects a temporary decline to the area of 111.00-111.50.

An alternative point of view suggests that there will be no correction, and the pair will continue to move north without stopping. This opinion is supported by 45% of experts. The ultimate target is the upper boundary of the medium-term horizontal channel at the level of 114.50.

The Japanese Prime Minister Abe also plays into the hands of the bulls, having decided to dissolve the lower house of parliament and hold early elections on October 22;

 

– The forecast for the pair USD/CHF assumes that the pair will move in the side channel 0.9585-0.9770 for a while. At the same time, one third of the oscillators are giving signals that it is overbought, proceeding from which one can expect first its fall to the lower border of the corridor, and then a rebound upwards. More than 60% of experts, trend indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agree with this point of view.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy # forex #forex_example #signals forex #cryptocurrencies, #bitcoin


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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 09 -13 October 2017



 

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 

- Recall that we weren’t able to word a more or less specific forecast for EUR/USD last week, as the opinions of the experts were split exactly in half: 50% of them voted for the growth of the pair and 50% for its fall. The market literally froze in anticipation of Friday's data on the US labor market; once they were released, however, it reacted to them quite calmly as well. As a result, the pair returned to the August values and completed the week in the zone of the week’s Pivot Point at 1.1733;  

 

- The forecast for GBP/USD has fully come true. The overwhelming majority of experts, with the support of trend indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, sided with the bears, expecting the pair to fall to the lower boundary of the medium-term rising channel. The level 1.3040 was named as the target, the pair reached it on Friday, losing about 375 points during the week;

 

- USD/JPY. 55% of analysts expected a decline in this pair, the remaining 45% expected a growth. As a result, it did not listen to either of them, and completed the week's session exactly where it started: at 112.65;

 

- The forecast for USD/CHF assumed that it would move in the side channel 0.9585-0.9770 for some time, which was happening for almost the whole week. At the same time, the bulls periodically made attempts to break the upper boundary of this corridor. The most powerful attack was undertaken on Friday on the news from the US, but it was unsuccessful, and it was quite soon that the pair returned to the zone 0.9770-0.9780.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- ‘South and only southwards’ is the viewpoint of 85% of experts, graphical analysis, trend indicators and oscillators on D1 for EUR/USD. Having said that, no serious strengthening of the dollar is expected: the level 1.1660 is called as the main support, the next support is in the zone 1.1600.

After this decline, according to the readings of the graphical analysis, the pair expects a U-turn and a return to the highs of August-September. The resistance levels are 1.1835, and 1.2035, the final target is 1.2090.

As for the technical analysis on H4, according to its readings, the pair may continue to move in a narrow side corridor within the limits of 1.1700-1.1835 for a while. The remaining 15% of experts agree with this point of view;

 

- Speaking about the future of the GBP/USD, the majority (55%) of analysts, supported by graphical analysis and 2/3 indicators, are still looking to the south. In their opinion, the pair has not yet reached its minimum, located at the level of 1.2770.

As for the remaining experts, they believe that the pair will not be able to break through a strong medium-term support in ​​1.3000-1.3045. They believe that the pair will use this support to go into a lateral movement. The resistance levels are 1.3125, 1.3150 and 1.3250. About one-third of the oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this scenario, signaling that the pair is oversold;

 

- USD/JPY has been moving in the side channel 108.00-114.50 since this spring, and is now on its way to its upper border. About 70% of analysts agree with this point of view, as do graphical analysis on H4 and 90% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1. The nearest resistance is 113.25.

An alternative point of view is shared by 30% of experts and most of the indicators on H4: they believe that, before continuing northward, the pair should test the local bottom in the zone of 111.75-112.00;


1507400988_USD-JPY_09.10.2017.png



 

- Experts' opinions about the near future of the USD/CHF are split equally: 50% expect the pair to fall, 50% of them expect it to grow. As for the readings of most indicators and graphical analysis, in their opinion the pair will first try to reach the peak of the previous week at 0.9835, before returning to the support at 0.9770. It would then try to break it and, if successful, would drop to the level of 0.9685.

It should be noted that in the medium term, the bearish sentiment is already supported by 70% of analysts, who expect the pair to fall to a low of 0.9600, or perhaps yet another 100 points lower.

 

In conclusion, a couple of words about the main events that can influence the trend directions and the volatility of the pairs under consideration. In the coming week, it is worth paying attention to the publication of the US Federal Reserve Protocol on open markets on Wednesday 11 October. Importance should also be given to the publication of data on the US consumer market on Friday, 13 October. As for the Eurozone, the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday, 11 October, is of interest.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy # forex #forex_example #signals forex #cryptocurrencies, #bitcoin


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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for October 16 - 20, 2017



 

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 

– Recall that an overwhelming majority of experts expected a minor strengthening of the dollar. According to their forecasts, EUR/USD would fall to support 1.1660. This did not happen, however, and the minimum of the week was fixed 60 points higher, at the level of 1.1720. The forecast which was given by graphical analysis, supported by indicators on H4 and only 15% of analysts, turned out to be correct. According to this scenario, the pair was expecting a trend reversal and a move to the north, first to resistance 1.1835, and in the event of its breakdown, even higher, to 1.2035. This scenario was indeed the one that played out; however, the pair was unable to settle above the aforementioned resistance and completed the week near 1.1820; 

 

– Speaking about the future of GBP/USD, 45% of analysts assured that the pair would be unable to break through the strong medium-term support in the 1.3000-1.3045 zone and, like EUR/USD, it would go up. About a third of the oscillators on H4 and D1 which signaled that the pair was oversold, agreed with this. The height 1.3250 was named as the final goal, which the pair reached in the first half of Thursday, after which it collapsed 140 points down. However, the bears’ joy was premature, and the bulls quickly won back losses. As a result, the pair met the weekend at the level of 1.3282;

 

– One of the scenarios, supported by a third of experts and most of the indicators on H4, suggested that before continuing northward, USD/JPY would test the local bottom in the 111.75-112.00 vicinity. This is what happened: the pair lost about 80 points over the course of the week and froze at around 111.83;

 

– USD/CHF. The readings of most indicators and graphical analysis indicated that this pair would first try to once again reach the high of the previous week at 0.9835, before returning to the support at 0.9770. It would then try to break it and, if successful, drop to the level of 0.9685. These actions did all occur, although the pair’s movement was somewhat less volatile than expected: at first the pair rose to the level of 0.9806, then returned to support 0.9770, broke it and found the local bottom at the level of 0.9700. The pair met the end of the week session in the zone of October Pivot Point 0.9745.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from several banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

– EUR/USD. Tensions with North Korea, statements about the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran, fighting in Syria, the possible rise in oil prices, the change in the Fed leadership, the extraordinary EU economic summit: all this and much more makes the economic situation so uncertain that experts are unable to formulate any consensus regarding either the near future or the medium term. 45% of them vote for the growth of the pair, 45% for its fall, and 10% merely shrug their shoulders.

As for the indicators, they repeat the discord of the analysts on H4. But on D1, the situation is more certain: 80% of them are painted green. However, 20% of the oscillators have already turned red, signaling the pair is overbought.

Finally, graphical analysis: summarizing its readings on H4 and D1, it is possible to draw support lines at the levels 1.1750, 1.1685 and 1.1600, and resistance lines at 1.1920 and 1.2030;

 

– The situation with GBP/USD looks clear relative to EUR/USD, albeit by a small extent. Here, 55% of analysts, as well as graphical analysis on D1, sided with the bears, forecasting the pair’s fall to support 1.3150, and, in the event of its breakdown, 110 points lower: to the level of 1.3040.

The remaining 45% of experts and the overwhelming majority (85%) of the indicators believe that the last week's trend will continue, and the pair will rise at least to the resistance of 1.3450. The next resistance is 1.3600. However, in this case in the beginning of the week a certain downward correction is possible, since a quarter of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone;

 


1508049188_GBPUSD_16.10.2017.png



 

– USD/JPY. Here, a quarter of the oscillators on both H4 and D1 indicate that this pair is oversold. This is confirmed by the opinion of most experts that the pair is on the way to the upper boundary of the mid-term side channel 108.00-114.50 and should be expected to jump upwards.

However, it is worth considering that the pair is in the Pivot Point zone of this channel now, and therefore can still move along this line for a while, oscillating in the range of 110.65-112.20;

 

– And, finally, the last pair of our review: USD/CHF. Graphical analysis, trend indicators and oscillators have taken a neutral position. A slight bullish overweight can only be noticed in the readings of graphical analysis on H4, according to which the pair is striving to the 0.9800-0.9835 area.

As far as experts are concerned, 75% of them vote for the fall of the pair. The support levels are at 0.9700, 0.9670 and 0.9560.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin


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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for October 23 - 27, 2017


 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 

- Last week, we were unwilling to give any forecast for EUR/USD pair. Our reluctance proved to be well-founded. Recall that there was a complete discord both among experts and among indicators: some were looking to the north, some south, and some were simply shrugging shoulders, unable to predict anything. The pair seemed to feel it: it first went down, then up, then down again ... As a result, it did not opt for either direction, and finished the five-day period near 1.1780, the Pivot level, around which it has been gravitating for four weeks;

 

- Speaking about the future of the GBP/USD, 55% of analysts, along with graphic analysis on D1, sided with the bears, forecasting that the pair would fall to the support at 1.3150, and, in the event of a breakdown, 110 points lower. This is what happened: starting on Monday, the pair began to lose point after point, reaching the level of 1.3150 on Wednesday. Then it made several attempts to break through this level, and managed to reach the1.3085 mark on Friday. However, the forces of the bears dried up, and by the end of the five-day period the bulls managed to win 100 points, thereby rising to 1.3185;

 

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair also turned out to be absolutely correct. Supported by the oscillators, the experts agreed that this pair was on the way to the upper boundary of the mid-term lateral channel 108.00-114.50, and that one should expect an upwards spurt. This ended up being just under 200 points; as a result, the pair fixed a weekly maximum at the height of 113.56, failing to reach the final goal by approximately a meager 100 points;

 

- USD/CHF. Here the bulls were granted a slight advantage only by the readings of graphical analysis on H4, according to whom the pair’s target was the zone 0.9800-0.9835. As for the analysts, only 25% of them voted for the growth of the pair. But it was to these voices that we had to listen, as the pair added about 100 points during the week, completing the weekly session in the zone of 0.9840.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- EUR/USD. It is worth noting that the expert community has been unable to form a clear opinion on the behavior of this pair for two weeks now. Despite the decision of the US Senate to approve the draft budget for 2018 and allow the implementation of Trump's tax reform, only 50% of analysts voted for the strengthening of the dollar. According to their opponents, even if the dollar goes further up, this growth will be short-lived.

Following the analysts, oscillators and trend indicators on D1 either disagree or simply take a neutral position. And it is only on H4 that they point to a downtrend. As for the graphical analysis, it draws a lateral channel in the range 1.1665-1.1925. The following support is in zone 1.1575.

It should be noted that when moving to the medium-term forecast, the picture changes dramatically, and about 80% of the experts vote for the growth of the pair to the area of 1.2000-1.2100;

 

- The outlook for GBP/USD is negative. This is the viewpoint that most (55%) analysts still adhere to. The nearest support is in the 1.3000 zone. In addition to experts, 70% of trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1 side with the bears.

As for the bulls, they are supported by the remaining 45% of experts, according to whom the pair may once again try to test the October maximum in the 1.3335 zone;

 

- Like last week, USD/JPY is once again facing a green light. 65% of analysts, 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1 believe that the growth of the pair to the upper boundary of the medium-term channel of 108.00-114.50 will be continued. We must not forget, however, that certain corrections are possible along this path. This is what the remaining 25% of the oscillators signal about when indicating that the pair is overbought. And, as practice shows, such signals are often enough to make the pair to descend for a short while. The nearest support is in the 112.00-112.30 vicinity, with the next one being 111.65;

1508652773_USDJPY_23.10.2017.png


 

- Finally, the last pair of our review: USD/CHF. A quarter of the oscillators on H4 and D1 indicate that this pair is overbought, with 65% of experts looking southwards. Moreover, when moving from the weekly forecast to the monthly one, their number increases to almost 85%. All of them expect the pair to fall first to the horizon of 0.9700, and then by yet another 100 points.

The bull supporters that remain, backed by graphical analysis of H4, believe that the potential for growth of this pair has not yet dried up and it has a chance to rise to 0.9900, or, perhaps, even higher to the landmark level of 1.0000. However, here much will depend on the EUR/USD pair, whose behavior USD/CHF often mirrors.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for October 30 - November 3, 2017


 

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

  

- As the opinions of analysts were split 50/ 50, we had decided not to give a clear forecast for EUR/USD for the second week in a row. In terms of what happened, despite the bulls having an advantage at the beginning of the week, the bears eventually won. The House of Representatives of the US Congress was on their side this time, allowing the Senate to approve Trump's tax reform by a simple majority. But that's not all: on Thursday, 26 October, the dollar experienced a surge of support from the ECB, which decided to extend the QE quantitative easing program and continue buying bonds until the end of September 2018. All this hit the European currency so strongly, that it lost about 250 points against the dollar in two days.

It would be difficult to suspect that graphical analysis had been aware of the plans of the US Congress and the ECB. It was, nevertheless, graphical analysis that managed to predict the maximum level of the Euro fall,1.1575, with 100% accuracy. As a result, the pair completed the three-month "head-shoulders" figure and froze around the mark of 1.1605;      

 

- GBP/USD. Here the supporters of the bears had a slight advantage: 55% versus 45%. They also won with just a small advantage. During the entire week, the pair was either falling or rising; in the end, it completed the five-day period 70 points lower than it had started;

 

- The forecast for USD/JPY also turned out to be correct. Despite having difficulty overcoming resistance from its adversary, it nevertheless managed to reach the required point: the upper boundary of the mid-term side channel 108.00-114.50. To be precise, the pair took the height of 114.45, after which a predictable rebound followed, which saw it return to the Pivot Point of the week at the level of 113.70 by the end of Friday;

 

- One of the scenarios for USD/CHF voiced last week had the pair to rise to a landmark level of 1.0000. And, even though it was supported by just a minority of experts, it turned out to be the correct one. As predicted, the pair was strongly influenced by the behavior of the EUR/USD. Mirroring which, it rose by 200 points.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- EUR/USD. Experts are once again split equally, being in this position for three weeks now. As for the trend indicators, 90% of them look southward. The picture is quite different among oscillators, almost half of them giving signals that this pair is oversold. Graphical analysis on D1 joins them, according to its readings, the pair expects to return to the October highs in the zone 1.1835-1.1880, and then the rise to September peaks at the level of 1.2000-1.2100. It should be noted that in the medium term, about 70% of analysts vote for the return of the pair to the range 1.1800-1.2100.

As for the upcoming week, among the events that can significantly determine trends is the release of the latest data on the labor market in the United States on Friday, 3 November. The data includes the very important NFP indicator - the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. Last month it had a negative value of minus 33K. Should the NFP increase to 270-300K as expected, the dollar will be strongly boosted. It should be noted that large market participants often make plays on such news in advance, already a few days before their official announcement.

Of course, one should also add to this that, by the end of next week, the next Fed head may be revealed. In the meantime, it is evident that Janet Yellen and Kevin Warsh have been eliminated from the competition;

1509256389_EURUSD_30.10.2017.png


 

- The forecast for GBP/USD is still mostly negative. This is the view most (60%) of analysts, graphical analysis and 90% of indicators on H4 and D1 adhere to. However, when switching to a larger timeframe (W1), the picture changes, giving cause to speak about a lateral trend with support on the area of 1.3000-1.3020. The next support is 100 points lower. Resistance is at the levels of 1.3225 and 1.3285. The ultimate goal in case of growth is 1.3335.

Thursday, 2 November will be important for the British pound, as a large amount of news from the Bank of England is expected. According to forecasts, the number of votes for raising the interest rate may triple; the rate itself may probably be raised from 0.25% to 0.50%;

 

- To switch to sports terminology, the odds of the growth of USD/JPY are estimated as 2 to 1. More than 65% of experts believe that, with a base at the support at 113.25, it will once again try to test the upper boundary of the medium-term side channel 108.00-114.50. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this.

As for the alternative point of view, its supporters believe that the potential for growth of the pair has already dried up and it will take a breather, dropping for a while into the zone 112.25-113.25;

 

- And, finally, the USD/CHF. Here, 75% of analysts, with full support of technical analysis, say that the pair will certainly try to gain a foothold above the level of 1.0000. The ultimate target is 1.0100. However, if the dollar starts to lose its positioning against the euro, it will with overwhelming probability also weaken with respect to the Swiss franc, as a result of which the pair may fall into the zone of 0.9750-0.9800. 

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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Forex Forecast for EURUSD for the end of 2017 and for 2018


 

According to statistics, more than 85% of transactions in financial markets are made with the participation of the US dollar, and about 30%, with the participation of the Euro. So, what do experts expect from the EUR/USD at the end of 2017 and in 2018?

 

 

What the Bulls Say

 

To begin with, of the 80 banks that submitted their forecasts for this pair in June, only 23 predicted its growth to $ 1.15 by the end of this year. And only a few believed that it could reach $ 1.18.

 

Among the most accurate were the analysts of DZ Bank AG - Germany's second-largest bank, but they did not expect that already in early September, EUR/USD would come close to the height of 1.21.

 

In total, since December 2016, the pair has added about 17%. Then, however, it went down to 1.16 following the ECB decisions on QE program, but this does not mean a final break in the uptrend. As analysts in DZ Bank AG believe, the Euro has a growth potential until the summer of 2018.

 

 

"The growth of the Euro has surpassed many expectations," said John Gordon, a leading analyst at NordFX brokerage company. - For example, the strategy of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, generally adhering to the bullish forecast, expected that by the end of this year the pair would trade in the $ 1.14 zone, and the mark of $ 1.18 euro would be reached only by the end of 2018. The Bank of America Merill Lynch forecast looked like this: the end of 2017 - 1.15, the end of 2018 - 1.19.

 

Even more modest forecast has been given by Rand Merchant Bank in summer, it expected the rate to be at the level of $ 1.12 by the middle of next year. About the same growth - up to $ 1.13 was mentioned by Bloomberg in its study as well.

 

"Now, probably, many will have to reconsider their forecasts, - the NordFX analyst continues. - This is due, in the first place, to the fact that the banking strategists overestimated the centrifugal aspirations in Europe. Political risks here gradually come to naught. Negotiations on Brexit, elections in France and Germany, showed that, despite multiple negative factors, including events in Catalonia, the Eurozone is not threatened by the rapid collapse. On the other hand, the recovery of the European economy is gaining momentum and business activity indices are at long-term highs."

 

 

As for the Dollar, it could not strengthen against the Euro and other major competitors in the outgoing year. "We are not tired of repeating that the Fed is no longer a "magic wand" for the dollar, which can strengthen the exchange rate, - say in DZ Bank AG. - The actions of the Fed in general are expected, which means that the "American" has nowhere to draw any strength from. The ECB, on the contrary, is full of surprises."

 

The dynamics of the US economy in 2017 was weaker than predicted. And this, as noted in HSBC, coupled with the absence of real reforms, announced by Donald Trump, caused an outflow of speculative capital in favor of the Euro.

 

 

So, what do the most optimistic forecasts look like as of today?

 

According to analysts of the Dutch Rabobank, the Euro against the Dollar is now undervalued by about 11%, and, therefore, by mid-2018, the pair EUR/USD may rise to the level of 1.25.

 

BNP Paribas experts expect more complex dynamics. According to their forecast, before growing by the IV quarter of 2018, to $ 1.23, in the I quarter, the pair should fall to $ 1.15.

 

But in Societe Generale, they believe that first the Euro will grow to $ 1.20, and only then it will go down.

1509683270_EURUSD_2017-18.png


 

 

Bearish fears

 

"It would be wrong to say that everyone is optimistic about the Euro in the financial world," says John Gordon of NordFX. "Eurosceptics also have strong positions."

 

Among the main challenges facing the EU is the problem of refugees and illegal migrants from North Africa and the Middle East.

 

 

Another problem is the serious economic imbalance that arose because the Euro is not tied to one particular country. As a result, some of the countries of the Eurozone, whose economy is based mostly on agriculture, light industry and tourism, are experiencing financial difficulties. But countries with developed machine building received a major benefit from averaging the rate of the single currency.

 

The largest beneficiary is Germany. The head of the US National Trade Council, Peter Navarro, even said that the current Euro is a disguised Deutsche mark. To which the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker replied no less starkly, announcing that he would support any state that would have decided to withdraw from the USA.

 

Of course, these are just words, but a major trade conflict between the Old and New World is not out of the question, which can also pull the Euro down.

 

 

In addition, one can expect one more move from Americans, which can sharply raise the dollar. It follows from the plan published by the US Treasury that in the fourth quarter of this year the US budget plans to increase the national debt and attract a record amount with the help of government bonds - about half a trillion dollars.

 

Withdrawing such a huge volume of dollar liquidity from the market may increase the demand for this currency from such major banks as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs & Co., Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, etc., which, naturally, will lead to the growth of the dollar.

 

 

"Of course, if all the bearish forecasts, starting from trade disagreements with the United States and ending with the continuing intra-European risks, come true," says the NordFX analyst, "the EUR/USD may again head South as it did before. If you remember, back in January, the probability that the Euro and Dollar would come to parity was very high. All waited for the rate $ 1.00. But the apocalyptic predictions regarding the complete collapse of the European Union did not come true, and, having turned around at the mark 1.034, the pair once again went up."

 

 

If you try to summarize the opinions of experts from leading banks, by the end of this year the pair is likely to move in the side channel 1.150-1.210. But in the event that, thanks to the actions of the Treasury and the US Fed, the Dollar still goes up, the next strong support for the pair will be the level of $ 1.110.

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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  • 2 weeks later...

NordFX is Recognized as the Most Reliable Broker of the Year Yet Again


 

1510374170_Small.jpg


 

Exactly one year ago our company was declared the winner for 2016 in the ‘The Most Reliable Broker’ category according to TheForeXAwards.com. This year, we were once again named ‘The Most Reliable Broker’ at the ShowFx World finance conference, which was held in Singapore in late October, this time for 2017.

 

Many leading specialists in the field of trading and investments attended this landmark event as guests. We are sincerely grateful to the Forex community for yet again honoring us with this noteworthy award.

 

Reliability is more than just one of many criteria for evaluating the work of a broker. It represents the face of a company in which traders entrust not only money, but also their hopes for a better future. That is why the protection and safety of our clients' funds has always been and will always remain the top priority at NordFX.

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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 13 - 17, 2017


 

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 

- Just this summer, strategists of many large international banks had designated the 2015 and 2016 highs in the zone 1.15-1.16 as momentous for EUR/USD. The past two weeks of November confirmed this: this entire time the pair has been moving east along the horizon 1.1600, and its main fluctuations, aside from rare inconsistencies, were within the boundaries of 1.1575-1.1660. It was in this upper border of the side corridor that the pair completed the weekly session;

 

- GBP/USD. This pair has been in a horizontal trend within 1.3035-1.3320 for more than a month. As for this past week, it saw the bulls try to win back losses of the first days of November. However, pushing away from the lower border of the channel, they were able to rise only slightly higher than its Pivot Point, finishing close to the level of 1.3200;

 

- USD/JPY did not bring any surprises. As expected, it once again tried to test the upper boundary of the mid-term lateral channel 108.00-114.50. And, as expected, after having failed, it took a breather and sank to the support of 113.00, drawing out a textbook descending channel on the chart;

 

- Recall that two weeks ago, 75% of analysts, with full support of technical analysis, said that USD/CHF would certainly try to gain a foothold above 1.0000. This scenario turned out to be 100% true. However, without the support of EUR/USD, the forward momentum of the pair dried up: never reaching the final target of 1.0100, it moved to a lateral movement, ending the five-day period at 0.9960.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- EUR/USD. An overwhelming majority of experts (65%) vote for the growth of this pair, albeit a small one. In their opinion, having beaten off from strong support / resistance level 1.1665, the pair should go up: first to 1.1725, and then another 100 points higher. Both graphical analysis and about 70% of indicators on H4 agree with this scenario. However, when switching to the D1 timeframe, the picture changes to the opposite - here most of the indicators predict the pair's fall to 1.1555. The following support is in the 1.1475 zone;

 

- The outlook for GBP/USD is negative: over 60% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 think so. The nearest support is at 1.3035, and in case of its breakthrough – at 1.2870. An alternative point of view is expressed by 15% of experts and by indicators on D1, but even here a quarter of the oscillators signal the pair is overbought. As for the remaining 25% of analysts, in their opinion, the pair will continue to move in the lateral channel 1.3035-1.3320;

 

- The forecast for the USD/JPY fluctuates between neutral and negative. 70% of experts and about a half of trend indicators and oscillators vote for a downtrend. 40% of the indicators have taken a neutral position, while only 10% of them light up green. Nevertheless, 30% of analysts side with the bulls. The targets remain the same as previously. For the bulls, it is to try to gain a foothold above the upper boundary of the mid-term side channel, which is 114.50. For the bears, it is to return to the Pivot Point of this channel in the 111.70 zone;

1510414116_USDJPY_13.11.2017.png


 

- USD/CHF. As often happens, the forecast for this pair mirrors the forecast for the EUR/USD, with this case being no exception. 65% of experts with the support of indicators on H4 predict the pair will fall to support 0.9860. The remaining 35% of analysts disagree with this: according to them the pair will rush again to storm the height of 1.0100 from the very start of the week. As for graphical analysis, it offers an alternative opinion on D1: an initial descent to the level of 0.9860, followed by a rise to 1.0100, and then by lateral movement in this channel.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 20 - 24, 2017



 

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

 

- Recall that, when giving the forecast for the EUR/USD, the overwhelming majority of experts (65%) supported the growth of this pair. In their opinion, having beaten off strong support/resistance level 1.1665, the pair should go up - first to the height of 1.1725, and then another 100 points higher.

This is exactly what happened - on Monday and part of Tuesday the pair moved in the side corridor along the horizon 1.1665, and then, rushing upwards, on Wednesday it reached the height of 1.1860. The reason for such a rapid spurt was the statistics of the Eurozone, whose GDP has been growing for the fifth consecutive month. In addition, the index of economic sentiment from ZEW was better than expected - 30.9 against 29.3.

Then the pair sharply turned to the south, which again was caused by the positive statistics, which this time came from the United States. Data on inflation and the consumer market supported the dollar, and it was able to win back about 70 points from the euro and completed the week in zone 1.1790;

 

- GBP/USD. More than 60% of analysts gave a negative forecast for this pair, naming horizon 1.3035 as support. The pair really immediately rushed down, however, not reaching the goal of some 25 points, changed the trend to ascendant and on Friday, it almost touched the mark 1.3260. Then, here again, the dollar managed to win back several tens of points, and the pair returned to the marks of the beginning of the week at 1.3200;     

 

- 70% of experts and about half of the trend indicators and oscillators voted for the downtrend for the USD/JPY. Pivot Point of the mid-term side channel 108.00-114.50 in the area of 111.70 was named as target. Considering that in reality Pivot Point is not a line, but a corridor of a certain range, we can assume that this forecast came true all 100%, the pair went to the south about 175 points and reached the local bottom at the level of 111.95 during the week;  

 

- The forecast was correct for the USD/CHF as well. As predicted by 65% of experts, supported by indicators on H4, by mid-week the pair fell to the level of 0.9845, after which the rebound up by 100 points followed.

It should be noted that such a fracture had been calculated quite precisely by graphical analysis, which had indicated first the fall of the pair to the level of 0.9860, and then its rise.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- EUR/USD. It is quite difficult to determine the weekly trend for this pair this time, since exactly a half of the experts vote for its fall, and the second half are for its growth. In this regard, most promising is the forecast, which is given by graphical analysis. According to its readings on H4, the pair will move in the side corridor in the range from 1.1700 to 1.1860 for a while. At this, first the pair is expected to go down to the lower border of the given channel, and then to bounce up.

Graphical analysis on D1 draws a wider range of oscillations - reduction to support 1.1600, and subsequent retreat to the height of 1.2050.

It should also be noted that throughout the coming week, data on the state of both the European economy and the economies of the United States, Japan, Germany and Switzerland will be published. However, volatility in the market is likely to be caused by the ECB head M. Draghi's speeches on Monday, November 20 and the Fed Chair J. Yellen on Wednesday, November 22, as well as the hearing of the inflation report in the UK, the ECB's monetary policy meeting and the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve;

 

- it seems that the GBP/USD will continue to move in a fairly wide medium-range lateral channel, which began in late September - early October this year. The lower boundary of the channel is 1.3035, the upper boundary is 1.3320. 40% of experts, supported by almost 90% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair, in an attempt to break the upper limit, will move to the north. However, most analysts (60%) tend to believe that it will stay for a while in the central zone of the channel, moving west in the range of 1.3100-1.3235;


1511072265_GBPUSD_20.11.2017.png



 

- The USD/JPY also continues to fluctuate within the channel 108.00-114.50. At the same time, 75% of experts believe that in the coming days it will once again test the support in the Pivot Point zone of this channel 111.70. 60% of analysts are sure that it will not be able to overcome it, and it will once again rush to the height of 114.50.

Indicators also support such a scenario. At the moment, 90% of them are painted red, with a quarter of the oscillators pointing the pair is oversold, which is a fairly accurate signal for the trend to reverse;

 

- USD/CHF. 60% of experts and 75% of indicators point to the south, the nearest target is 0.9800, the next - 0.9715. An alternative point of view is represented by 40% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1, according to which the bulls have not yet fully exhausted their potential, and the pair is expected to grow, at least, to mark 1.0100. The nearest resistance is 0.9940, which, after the breakdown, will become the main support.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 27 November - 1 December 2017



 

 

To begin with, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be accurate either fully or 90% accurate for all four currency pairs:

 

- Regarding EUR/USD, we named the forecast based on graphical analysis as the most promising one last week. Our decision was not a mistaken one. Recall that, according to readings on H4, the pair was expected to spend some time moving in the side corridor in the 1.1700 to 1.1860 range. After hitting the lower border of this channel, it was expected to sharply rise. This is exactly what happened: having designated a local minimum at the level of 1.1712 and being propelled by Trump's decision regarding North Korea and news from the US Federal Reserve, the pair started heading north on 21 November. It reached its maximum at 1.1943 by the end of the week;

 

- Giving a forecast for GBP/USD, 60% of analysts were inclined to believe that it would linger for some time in the central zone of the medium-term side channel, which began in late September - early October. As for the remaining 40% of experts, supported by almost 90% of the indicators, they expected the pair to leave this zone and go to the upper border of the channel.

This scenario was implemented with 100% accuracy: until the middle of the week, the pair had struggled to stay close to the center of the medium-term corridor, using its Pivot Point as support, and then rushed up, reaching the October maximum at 1.3338 on Friday;

 

- USD/JPY. Most experts (75%), supported by an absolute majority of indicators (90%), stated that the pair would necessarily test the support in the Pivot Point area of the medium-term 108.00-114.50 side channel. This forecast was also fully correct. Having broken through the level of 111.70, the pair found the week’s minimum at 111.05, after which it fought back up, meeting the weekend in the zone 111.50;

 

- The forecast for USD/CHF was correct as well. 0.9940 was indicated as the nearest resistance. As predicted by 60% of experts and 75% of indicators, the pair rebounded from this level and went south. 0.9800 was identified as a target, and the pair froze near it by the end of the week.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- 65% of experts predict further weakening of the dollar and the growth of EUR/USD to at least 1.2000. The next resistance levels are 1.2045 and 1.2090, which were the August peaks. Both graphical analysis and 100% of trend indicators agree with this forecast. As for the oscillators, almost a third signal that the pair is overbought. 35% of analysts are talking about a possible downwards correction: according to them, the pair may fall to the support at 1.1855, and in the event of its breakthrough, to the 1.1800 area;

 

- 70% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and 100% of indicators agree that the dollar will continue to fall relative to the British pound as well. In their view, the upward trend of the GBP/USD that began in January 2017 will continue, and the pair will rush to the September high in the 1.3650 zone. The nearest resistance is 113.25. 

An alternative forecast, supported by 30% of analysts, suggests that, having reached the upper boundary of the "autumn" medium-term channel of 1.3035-1.3335, the pair should return to its Pivot Point at 1.3200;


1511669980_GBPUSD_27.11.2017.png



 

- The dollar’s weakening, according to 70% of experts, will also concern the USD/JPY. The pair’s target is in the 110.00-110.50 area. However, in the medium term the picture changes: here 65% of analysts vote for the pair's rise to 112.00-113.45, and then to 114.45. Graphical analysis and several oscillators on D1 also testify in favor of such a development;

 

- Southwards and only southwards: this is what 70% experts, graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators, as well as 80% of oscillators on H4 and D1 suggest. The support levels are 0.9750, 0.9675 and 0.9560.

As for graphical analysis, it joins 20% of oscillators in indicating that before falling, the pair may temporarily rise to 0.9865.

Finally, 30% analysts strongly disagree with the bears' supporters: according to them, the pair is expected to return to 1.0000 in the near future.

 

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for December 04 - 08, 2017


 

 

To begin with, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be accurate either fully or 90% accurate for all four currency pairs:

 

- As practice shows, if at least 25-30% of oscillators signal that a pair is oversold or overbought, one should expect a correction. This is what happened last week with the EUR/USD. At the beginning of the week, it seemed to have gone north, continuing the main trend of November, but the bulls' strength quickly dried up, and soon the pair retreated to where one third of analysts and oscillators had indicated - to the local bottom in zone 1.1800. However, while the pair was falling, the bulls regained their forces and by the end of the week they managed to bring it back to the level of 1.1900 - practically to the same place where the pair started on Monday; 

 

- When giving forecast for the GBP/USD, 70% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and all indicators had agreed that the upward trend of the pair, which started in January 2017, would continue, and it would rush to the September high in the zone 1.3650. The level of 1.3450 was named as the nearest resistance.

It is common knowledge that the truth is in the middle. So, it happened this time too - the maximum peak that the pair could conquer was the height of 1.3550, after which the forward impulse of the pair came to naught, and it completed the week at 1.3470;   

 

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair assumed it would go down to the zone of 110.00-110.50 with the subsequent rise to the zone 112.00-113.45. This is what happened, with minor amendments. First, the pair dropped to the level of 110.83, and then, having turned around, it went up, rising to the height of 112.87. Afterwards, a powerful leap down 140 points followed, then up 80, and the finish was at 112.20;    

 

- The basic forecast was accurate for the USD/CHF too. «Southwards and only to the south,"- claimed 70% of experts, graphical analysis on D1, 100% trend indicators and 80% of oscillators. The support was 0.9750. At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 together with the remaining 20% of oscillators warned that before going down, the pair could temporarily rise to the level of 0.9865.

The fairness of this forecast is clearly visible on the pair's chart - a smooth slow rise to the height of 0.9880, then a throw to the south to horizon 0.9733 and the week finished almost where expected, at 0.9760. 

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- Exactly like last week, 65% experts predict a further weakening of the dollar and the growth of the EUR/USD at least to 1.2000. The following resistance levels are 1.2045 and 1.2090, the August maximum. Both graphical analysis and 95% of indicators agree with this forecast. But as for the medium-term forecast, the number of bulls' supporters is reduced to 35%, and the balance bows to the bears' side. According to the latter, starting from August, the pair is in a sideways trend in the range of 1.1575-1.2090, and therefore, having reached the upper border of this channel, it should turn around and rush to its Pivot Point in zone 1.1835.

At the same time, when opening positions on EUR/USD, it is necessary to take into account events that may affect the trend change or increase the volatility of this pair. Among the main events are the ECB meeting on Wednesday 6 December, publication of data on Eurozone GDP on Thursday and Friday publication of data on the US employment;   

 

- The dollar is expected to weaken against the British pound as well. Thus, in the opinion of 60% of experts, graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as about 90% of indicators, the goal of the GBPUSD is a maximum of September 20 at 1.3650. The nearest resistance is 1.3600.

In case the trend reverses right now, the strongest support will be located at the levels 1.3325, 1.3265 and 1.3050. It is necessary to note here that the pair has been moving in the side corridor 1.3050-1.3325 for nearly two months and it was only last week that it managed to break through its upper border. Therefore, the desire of the bears to return it to this framework is strong enough, and they are ready to implement it at the first opportunity. Almost 70% of analysts do not rule out such a scenario in the medium term;

 

- If you try to give any forecast for the USD/JPY using indicators, you won't be able to do so. Some of them are painted in green, some in red, and some in neutral gray, both on H4, and on D1, And, this concerns both trend indicators and oscillators.

Among experts, there is a slight advantage (60% versus 40%) of those siding with the bulls, in their opinion the pair will once again try to rise to the level of 113.30-114.00, which is confirmed by graphical analysis on H4 as well. However, if we look at the D1 chart, the pair's desire to re-test the Pivot Point of the medium-term side channel 108.00-114.50 in the area of 111.70, becomes evident. If this line is broken through successfully, the pair will rush again to its lower boundary. This is exactly what we could observe in the period from March 22 to April 11, from May 17 to June 6 and from July 20 to July 31 this year;

1512287060_USDJPY_04.12.2017.png


 

- USD/CHF. 45% of experts believe that having reached a strong support/resistance level of 0.9760, the pair will break up and go to resistance 0.9845, and, in case of its breakthrough, and another 100 points higher. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 as well as a quarter of the oscillators indicating that the pair is oversold, vote for this development as well.

Speaking about the movement of the pair to the north, it should also be noted that in the medium term, the number of supporters of its growth to the level of 1.0100 increases to 65%. At the same time, the bears who predict a decline of the pair to the 0.9700 level, prevail among analysts (55%).

 

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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A Revolution In Cryptocurrency Trading – A Leverage 1:1000


 

Ever since December 2017, NordFX clients are enjoying the ability to trade the most popular cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum—using a 1:1000 leverage ratio

This ratio is 10 times the market average, and enables clients to achieve a colossal profit with just a tiny amount of starting capital.

In the 11 months of this year the US dollar value of Ethereum has multiplied by 40, that of Litecoin by 20 and that of Bitcoin by 10. Thus, having bought 1 Ethereum for USD 11 in January and having sold it now for USD 440 would have resulted in a USD 429 profit. If, however, the same trade was conducted with a 1:1000 leverage ratio, USD 11 would have been enough to purchase not just 1, but 1000 of these coins. 

 

Cryptocurrency trading is now available on all the account types that NordFX offers its clients. This gives traders exclusive opportunities to hedge their risks through completing numerous simultaneous trades with conventional currency pairs, as well as gold and silver.

 

NordFX provides yet another bold innovation: the most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, can now be used as the deposit currency alongside the US dollar. This means that a trader can use Bitcoins to fund an account, to store assets, to withdraw profit and, by using cross exchange rates and leverage, conduct transactions with other cryptocurrencies, several dozen currency pairs and precious metals.

 

As a refresher, leverage is the monetary amount that a broker automatically offers traders for transacting in financial markets. Thus, NordFX allows traders and investors to make transactions of a volume equal to 1000 times that of their own assets.

 

 

#nordfx #btcusd #ltcusd #ethusd #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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