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Stan NordFX

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About Stan NordFX

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  1. Open an Account: https://nordfx.com/ #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
  2. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 19 - 23, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. As expected by most experts, supported by graphical analysis, the dollar went up last week, while the EUR/USD pair went down along with the euro. True, it did not reach the set target, the low of August 1, 1.1025, having found the local bottom at the level of 1.1065. The reason for the fall of the European currency was in the first place, "doves" promises by the general director of the Bank of Finland and former candidate for the ECB Olli Rehn. According to the statement of this prominent European official, it is already in September that the market expects a reduction in the key rate by 0.1 (and possibly by 0.2) percentage points (now it is -0.4%), as well as the resumption of the QE quantitative easing program in volume about 50 billion euros monthly. In addition, not the best economic statistics from Germany and China and the unexpected growth in US retail sales played in favor of the dollar. The market had been expecting this indicator to decline from 0.7% to 0.3%, but it rose to 1.0%. - GBP/USD. Last week, analysts did not expect any significant changes in the British pound, so their forecast was classified as neutral. As for technical analysis, 25% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 gave signals about the overselling of the pair, which, as practice shows, is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction. This was what happened: having rebounded from the level of 1.2015, the pair went north, fixing the week’s high at 1.2175 on Friday. The final five-day chord sounded in the 1.2140 zone, which can be called the Pivot Point of the first week of August; - USD/JPY. A third of analysts, supported by 85% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1, were sure that the Japanese currency would continue to play the role of a quiet refuge from currency storms, and therefore the pair would continue to fall to the low of January 3, 2019. at the level of 105.00. That was what happened, and it was already on Monday, August 12, that the pair approached this mark. Another third of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 had voted for the trend to turn up and lift the pair to the height of 107.00, which it reached the next day, on Tuesday, August 13. The ending of the week satisfied the remaining third of specialists, who had taken a neutral position. If you look at the graph of the last two weeks, you can see that the pair moved to the side channel 105.00–107.00 and completed the working session closer to its center, at 106.35. Thus, all three scenarios can be considered fulfilled - bearish, bullish and neutral; - Cryptocurrencies. Crypto enthusiasts, such as Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee or Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano, continue to attempt to raise Bitcoin status, claiming it has already become a safe haven asset, along with gold or the Japanese yen. And here it is questionable, what kind of refuge it is, if only from August 08 to 15 this digital currency lost more than 20% of its value, collapsing from $12,000 to $9,500? With such frenzied volatility, Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well and a refuge as well, but not from fluctuations in traditional financial markets, but from ... its younger colleagues in the digital market, altcoins, the interest in which is constantly falling. If you look at the dynamics of the altcoin market, starting from the peak on June 26, its capitalization fell from $124 to $79 billion, that is, more than 36%. Losses of bitcoin are twice lower :18% (drop from $229 to $187 billion). Accordingly, investors are gradually losing interest even in top coins such as Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC), switching their attention to bitcoin (BTC), whose market share has already exceeded 70%. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. On one European scale, there is a slowdown in the economic growth of the EU’s most important partner - China, weak economic performance in Germany, problems of Italy and Brexit. On the other, the American one, macro statistics from the United States are pleasing to the eye and the Fed’s leadership claims that the American economy is on a solid foundation and that it doesn’t fear any trade wars. It would seem that the answer to the question on which side the advantage should be is clear: on the side of the dollar. That is exactly what 65% of experts believe, supported by almost 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The immediate goal is support in the zone 1.1000–1.1025, after breaking through which there will be only 1000 points to 1: 1 parity. At the current rate of decline, it may take a little over a year to overcome this distance. (Recall that the pair was already dropping to the level of 1.0350 in December 2016). However, if you imagine other scales, everything becomes not so obvious. So, on one, European, scale there is the decrease in the euro interest rate announced by Olli Rehn for September and the resuscitation of the QE program. And on the US scale - the expectation of a recession in the US economy, Donald Trump's discontent with the actions of the Fed and, as a result, a possible reduction in the dollar rate by the end of 2019 from 2.25% to 1.85%. If the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell succumbs to pressure from the US president, a trend reversal upward and the pair's rise to marks in the zone 1.1300-1.1400 are not excluded. And if in the near future it is 35% of analysts who do not exclude such an opportunity, in the medium term their number increases to 55%. According to experts, the results of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, August 21 and the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which will also be held next week, should give some clarity about the US financial policy. In addition, the report on the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which will be released on Thursday, August 22, is of great interest; - GBP/USD. A rather interesting situation has developed in the UK. On the one hand, production is declining, falling by 0.6% compared to last year. On the other hand, instead of the retail sales drop of 0.3% expected in July, their growth by 0.2% was noted. This may indicate that, watching the fall of the pound and fearing the consequences of Brexit, the country's residents prefer shopping rather than financial savings. It is not clear how long this situation will last. We need to wait for the steps of the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the reaction of the British Parliament to them. Until this happens, the respite that the pair has taken in its fall will, according to the majority (65%) of experts, continue, and the pair will stay in the side channel 1.2000–1.2200. The closest support level is 1.2050, resistance is 1.2175. As for the graphic analysis, both on H4 and D1, after several days of movement in the side corridor, it predicts the pair will fall to the October 2016 low in the zone 1.1900–1.1940; - USD/JPY. The decision of the US authorities to postpone the introduction of additional duties on Chinese imports did not help the dollar much: investors still strongly doubt the peaceful end of the US-Chinese trade war. So, the yen will continue to play the role of a quiet financial haven. The expectation of a coming recession in the US economy and lower interest rates by the US Federal Reserve also plays against the dollar. Added to this is a drop in yields on 10-year US bonds, which have already fallen to 1.6%. Moreover, the yield spread of these securities has fallen below zero. Which, in theory, should lead to further strengthening of the Japanese currency and a decrease in the pair. However, experts supported by graphical analysis on H4 are inclined to believe that the pair will stay in the side channel 105.00–107.00 for at least another week. But in the future, most of them (60%) expect not a fall, but, on the contrary, that the dollar will strengthen, and the pair will rise to the zone of 108.50-109.00. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this forecast; - Cryptocurrencies. Giving long-term forecasts is a blessing. And the more distant the forecast, the better. If it does not come true, it's okay: everyone forgot about it a long time ago. And if the forecast is correct, then you can remind about yourself. For example, Tim Draper, the investor and head of Draper Associates, has predicted that Bitcoin would hit $250,000, possibly at the end of 2022, or maybe at the beginning of 2023. Well, only three years are left to wait. If we talk about more near forecasts, famous cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten is confident that Bitcoin will reach the $15,000 mark in a few weeks. It is possible that he is right, and a trend reversal is just around the corner, but so far there are no clear signs to buy, and the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is still at the “Fear” mark. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  3. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 12-16, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - USD/EUR. The pair is consolidating in the zone of a strong support/resistance level around 1.1200. In general, the zone 1.1150-1.1215 is quite significant for this pair, since it can be called the main Pivot Point of 2015-2016. And now, after three years, the pair has once again fallen into this range, which may indicate some confusion in the market. Uncertainty factors are many. Firstly, this is the beginning of another round in the US-China trade war. Introducing 10 percent duties on the next group of Chinese goods from September 1, the US president did not stop there, he called China “currency manipulator” and is planning to postpone the issuance of licenses for US companies to trade with Huawei. In addition to the external war, Trump has to wage an internal war, with his own Fed. He wrote in his Twitter on Thursday August 08: “Our companies are the greatest in the world, there is nobody even close, but unfortunately the same cannot be said about our Federal Reserve. They have called it wrong at every step of the way...". It is about stimulating the American economy, which is one step away from the recession, for which Trump blames the strong dollar. “The Fed’s high interest rates,” he writes, “in comparison to other countries, is keeping the dollar high, making it more difficult for our great manufacturers...to compete on a level playing field.” So, the market expects steps from the US leadership aimed at preventing an industrial downturn. But the ECB is expected to take the same steps, since the Eurozone economy, undermined by economic wars and political instability within the EU, is not in the best condition either, and the yield of German bonds have reached record lows. However, lowering the interest rate for the euro is a double-edged sword. By stimulating industrial growth, this step will create serious problems for the banking system in Europe. According to Bloomberg experts, lowering the rate on euro deposits to -0.5% will increase banks' expenses associated with servicing negative rates by 60%. Investors are not happy with the ongoing drop in oil prices either. Saudi Arabia is making a lot of efforts to maintain the price of “black gold” at least at the current level, but the results of these steps remain doubtful; - GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Most experts had expected a decline on both of these pairs. And if you look at the results of the week, the forecast turned out to be correct on the whole, although not one of them reached its goals. Thus, 75% of analysts expected to see GBP/USD around 1.2000, but the week low was fixed slightly higher, at the level of 1.2025. Thus, the loss of the British pound against the dollar amounted to about 135 points. - As for USD/JPY, unlike the pound, the yen continued to strengthen against the US currency. Analysts (60%) had expected the pair to be able to reach the January 2019 low at around 105.00. However, the fall was stopped at the horizon of 105.40 (minus 120 points during the week) , after which there was a rebound upwards, and the pair completed the five-day period at 105.65; - Cryptocurrencies. Former CEO of Google and Facebook, Avichal Garg, is sure that the real dominance of bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market is much higher than the figure published by cryptocurrency services, and actually exceeds 75%. According to Garg, it is necessary to revise the current measurement standards, since now they take into account the huge number of altcoins with zero liquidity. And it is not at all excluded that soon we will see the share of bitcoin exceed the mark of 80%, or even 90%. An argument in favor of this development is that BTC is gradually becoming a very popular safe haven asset. “Bitcoin has proven to be a hedge against global risks, because it shows a positive correlation with gold and a negative correlation with the stock markets,” said Tom Lee, co-founder and senior analyst at Fundstrat, in an interview with CNBC. And, looking at the charts of the last week, one cannot disagree with him. Usually, top altcoins repeated the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. Now, despite the fact that the BTC/USD pair has shown steady growth, adding about $1,500 during the week and gaining a foothold in the $11,550-12,120 zone, the main altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), finished the week in the red zone. Although, of course, it is too early to bury them completely. According to some experts, several alternative cryptocurrencies (for example, Ethereum) can become stand-alone blockchains, ceasing to be considered altcoins. The rest will go into oblivion as unnecessary. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. If on H4 both trend indicators and oscillators are still pointing north, D1 has a completely different picture: about half of the indicators are colored red, and another 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 and 60% of experts sided with the bears as well, they expect that, having pushed off the resistance of 1.1200, the pair will once again test support in the zone of 1.1025. In their opinion, the euro quotes at 1.1200 are now supported mainly due to the growth of interest in protective assets. However, the fragile balance, in addition to the situation with Brexit and a new aggravation of the political situation in Italy, can be disturbed even by weak data on GDP growth in the Eurozone, which will be released on Wednesday, August 14. A reduction in the state budget deficit and positive data on inflation in the USA can also play a role in strengthening the dollar. What these numbers will actually be will be announced on Monday, August 12 and Tuesday, August 14, respectively. The remaining 40% of analysts vote for the growth of the pair to the zone 1.1275-1.1345. Their forecast is based on the expectation of a recession and a further decline in interest rates in the United States. Thus, Wall Street Journal analysts estimate the chances of a recession over the next 12 months at 33.6% (a year ago it was18.3%), which is the highest rate since 2011. And predicting a change in the rate, experts believe that by the end of 2019 it will fall from 2.25% to 1.85%; - GBP/USD. On Tuesday morning, August 13, the UK will present a portion of labor market data that is expected to be neutral at best and weak at worst. As for inflation, its indicators, which will be released on August 14, are likely to remain at the same level. In general, experts are not expecting any significant changes in the pound this week, and therefore their forecast can be classified as neutral. As for the technical analysis, 100% of the trend indicators and most of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. Graphical analysis also Indicates to a continued fall of the pair. Moreover, it is already 25% of the oscillators that indicate overselling of the pair, which is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction. Support Levels: January 2017 lows - 1.1985 and October 2016 lows - 1.1945. Resistance Levels: 1.2210, 1.2415, 1.2525; - USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the desire of investors to shelter their capital in quiet harbors continues to grow. And 35% of analysts are sure that the Japanese currency will continue to play the role of such a harbor, and therefore the fall of the pair will continue until the January 3, 2019 low at the level of 105.00. Next support is March 2018 low 104.60. Graphical analysis on Н4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario. 30% of the experts were not able to give a forecast, and the remaining 35%, together with a graphical analysis on D1, voted for the trend to reverse upward and the pair to rise to the zone 107.00-108.00. Such a scenario is also supported by 15% of the oscillators, giving signals of the pair being oversold. It should be noted that in the transition from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of bull supporters among experts increases sharply, from 35% to 65%, and the height of 109.00 is called the main goal; - Cryptocurrencies. Tom Lee is confident that, having become, along with yen and gold, a safe haven asset, Bitcoin will be able to rise to $20,000. A similar point of view has been expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek. According to him, central banks will begin to massively buy bitcoins in the near future in order to hedge dollar risks, which appeared against the backdrop of tensions between the United States and China. The “epidemic” of lowering interest rate regulators will positively affect the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. Another strength of Bitcoin is its projected emission and limited supply. The reference cryptocurrency has grown by 93% in three months and now its immediate task is to update the highs of June 2019 in the $14,000 zone. More than 70% of experts agree with this forecast, although, in their opinion, this could happen by the end of August. In the next week, the pair will perhaps continue to move along the horizon of $12,000. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  4. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 05 - 09, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - USD. Two events took place last week, more precisely on Thursday 01 and Friday 02 August, that could shake the markets. But they did not shake them. On Thursday, for the first time since 2008, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key rate from 2.50% to 2.25%. The event was quite expected. Markets usually react to such a move, by dropping quotes. However, in this case, instead of falling, the dollar rose, although not by much (the increase against EUR was a little more than 100 points) and not for long (as of Friday, the euro won back 85 points). The main reason for the growth of the American currency was the comment by Jerome Powell, in which the Fed chief said that this rate cut by 25 basis points would not necessarily mark the beginning of a consistent easing policy. Indirectly, his words were confirmed by the fact that the rate was reduced by only 0.25%, and not by 0.50%, and two FOMC members voted against any reduction. Thus, the Federal Reserve was the least “soft” against the background of the central banks of other countries pursuing a policy of easing, which led to a short-term growth of the dollar. The second planned event was the release of statistics on the US labor market. As predicted, NFP fell slightly (from 193K to 164K), to which the market reacted rather sluggishly, especially since the main newsmaker at the end of the week was - unexpected for many! - Donald Trump. (Well, who can do without him!) For a start, the US president called Powell's behavior a betrayal, and then put an end to the fragile truce in the US-China trade war, announcing the introduction of a 10% duty on Chinese goods worth $300 billion on September 1. Such a move by Trump sharply increased the chances further easing of the Fed’s monetary policy, in spite of Powell's statements. Thus, the probability of the next rate reduction in September increased from 64% to 92%, in December - from 42% to 75%. The threat of a new round of hostilities in the war with China brought down the American stock market, and investors once again turned their attention to a safe haven currency such as the Japanese yen, which strengthened against the dollar by 275 points at the end of the week; - Cryptocurrencies. Without a doubt, Bitcoin was, is and will be the digital currency number 1, which reigns at the crypto market, making up the bulk of its capitalization and determining the trends and quotes of the vast majority of altcoins. And although sometimes there are voices offering to give, for example, Ethereum the status of a full-fledged coin, placing it next to Bitcoin, this is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. As for the news background, which often defines a particular trend, it has recently become quite ambiguous. Thus, the largest social network Facebook has declared that the launch of the project of its own digital currency Libra may be canceled due to significant pressure from the regulator, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On the one hand, it seems to be good for Bitcoin: there will be one strong competitor less. On the other hand, after crushing Libra, the authorities can firmly take on the crypto market as a whole. Calls on this matter do not stop for a minute. For example, The United States Revenue Service (IRS) has recently sent letters to more than 10 thousand investors demanding to include information about cryptocurrency assets in their tax return, otherwise violators will be fined. In the meantime, the pair BTC/USD continues to move in the side channel, trying to overcome the resistance of $10,500. Major altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), are also moving in a sideways trend with low volatility. It can be assumed that the main reason for such calm is the middle of summer, when investors, legislators, and even tax inspectors go on vacation. Although it may be just a lull before the next storm. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. The pair in its fall is now close to Pivot Point 2015-2016. And, although the rebound up on Friday, August 02, colored the indicators on H4 in a neutral gray color, 90% of the oscillators and trend indicators on D1 still insist on the continuation of the downward trend. 65% of experts agree that the American currency still has potential for growth, and it will continue to put pressure on the euro. The immediate goal for the pair is 1.0950, the next one is 100 points lower. At the moment, only 35% of analysts turned out to side with the bulls, however, in anticipation of easing the monetary policy of the Fed, when moving to the medium-term forecast, their number rises to 55%. If we turn to the indications of graphical analysis, it draws first the movement of the pair in the range of 1.1070-1.1165 on H4, and then its growth to the horizon of 1.1225. The next resistance is at 1.1285; - GBP/USD. Since April 2018, the British currency weakened against the US dollar by 2,300 points. The last days did not become an exception: the pound lost 430 points since July 25. The reason is the same, Brexit. The coming to power of Boris Johnson and his promise to part with the EU on October 31 on a “tough” scenario make investors nervous and the pound fall. 75% of experts expect to see the pair in the 1.2000 zone soon. And if it manages to break through this support, it will be able to “fly” down another 100-150 points. This development is supported by 95% of the trend indicators and 90% of the oscillators on D1. The remaining 10% of oscillators give signals about the pair being oversold. A respite is also expected by graphical analysis on D1 and by 25% of analysts, according to whom the pair can go to a side movement in the channel 1.2100-1.2250 for a while. In the case of any positive news regarding Brexit, growth of the pair to the level of 1.2375 is not excluded. As for the medium-term forecast, according to 70% of analysts, the Bank of England will eventually be forced to acknowledge the serious risks of a “tough” exit from the EU and sharply tighten monetary policy. Thus, it will be the only large central bank to raise interest rates, which should lead to an increase in quotations of the British currency and their rise above the level of 1.2800. However, this can happen only when at least the basic conditions for the British exit from the EC become known; - USD/JPY. The escalation of trade confrontation between the United States and China and the reduction in the interest rate on the US dollar increase the attractiveness of the yen as a safe haven currency. Therefore, 60% of analysts expect the pair to continue to decline in an effort to reach the January 2019 low around 105.00. 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on D1 also look to the south. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving signals about the pair being oversold. Resistance levels are 107.80, 109.00 and 110.00; - Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin holders try to find any arguments to push it up. Any reasons are suitable for this, even the Fed's interest rate cut: having lost interest in the dollar, investors will start investing in more profitable and risky assets, like Bitcoin. Although, if you think about it, what prevented them from doing so before? The rate cut by 0.25% is a very weak argument in this case. Billionaire and head of the crypto-bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novograz said in an interview with Bloomberg that the price of Bitcoin will rise again to the historical maximum of $20 thousand per unit before the end of this year. At the same time, he does not exclude that in the course of bidding quotations may drop to $8,500 for 1 BTC. And popular presenter Joe Kernen has announced on CNBC television channel the rise of BTC to $55,000. In May 2020, bitcoin mining will be halved, which, in his opinion, should lead to a rapid increase in the value of the coin, thanks to its aggressive purchases before halving. As for short-term forecasts, despite the fact that Bitcoin reached $10,650 on August 2, it will be possible to talk about the transition to sustainable growth only after the BTC/USD pair has confidently crossed the $11,000 mark. In the meantime, experts are divided into two equal camps. But all of them, both optimists and pessimists, call the horizon $10,000 as a Pivot Point. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  5. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 22 - 26, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. Most experts (65%) expected that the pair would go down. This forecast was supported by signals from a third of the oscillators indicating that the pair was overbought. All this happened: the weekly amplitude of fluctuations was about 100 points, and the low was fixed at 1.1225. Perhaps the fall of the euro on Thursday, April 18, would not have been so strong if it had not been for the short working week before Catholic Easter, when many banks and exchanges were closed on Good Friday. The main reasons for the fall were disappointing market data on business activity in the Eurozone and dollar-friendly data on retail sales in the United States. On Friday evening, the European currency, however, managed to win back some of the losses, and the pair completed the week at 1.1240; - GBP/USD. This pair showed a slightly larger amplitude - 140 points. At the same time, the experts indicated the precise low to which it should sink. Actually, with the forecast at 1.2985, the pair felt the bottom at the horizon 1.2978 - inside the support zone, which it has been unsuccessfully trying to break through for two months already; - USD/JPY. Some experts expected the growth of this pair, some thought it would fall. However, fluctuations with a maximum range of 40 points can hardly be attributed to bullish or bearish trends. For the whole week, we were able to observe the classic sideways trend, which started at 112.00 and ended at 111.92; - Cryptocurrencies. As has been said many times, the cryptocurrency movement is largely motivated by the news background, which this week was mildly positive. The "guru" Involved in the crypto business continued to repeat the mantra of the imminent rise of Bitcoin. For example, Tom Lee, a former financial analyst at JPMorgan, and now co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, said that given the success of the first cryptocurrency this spring, Bitcoin's exchange rate to the dollar will show growth throughout the year and reach $10,000 by its end. And according to the head of the BitMEX exchange Arthur Hayes, in just a few years we will see BTC/USD quotes around $50,000. The main positive news of the week, in our opinion, was the message that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund jointly launched an internal cryptocurrency. So far, only for the educational purposes of their employees. But as they say, the first step is the hardest. As for our forecast, it came true almost 100%: the standard cryptocurrency stayed in the range of $4,975-5,370, adding about 3.5% over the week. Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin ((LTC/USD) showed an increase of about 4%, but the growth of Ripple (XRP/USD) was less than 2%. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. The world economy is moving towards recession, and much in Europe depends on how well EU leaders can withstand the negative trends. It is not only about how the political situation will develop in the EU countries, and not only about how the ECB will behave in an effort to stabilize the economic situation in the euro area, but also about how, for example, the US-China trade negotiations will end and how President Trump will behave after that. Many analysts believe that today, Europe is prepared for the global economic recession and external attacks worse than other economic blocs. The past week brought the euro back within the 15-week downward channel. And 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the European currency will continue to give up its positions, falling to the zone of the 2019 lows - 1.1175-1.1185. It is only 30% of analysts that hope that the pair will be able to return to 1.1325. At the same time, attention should be paid to the data on the US GDP, which will be published on Friday, April 26. According to forecasts, the GDP growth will be only 1.8%, which is significantly lower than the previous value of 2.2%. If this prediction turns out to be correct, bulls can move the pair to the next target at the height of 1.1420; - GBP/USD. The pair completed the previous five days in the support zone of 1.2975, which it has been trying to break through for eight weeks already. Most experts (75%) believe that it will succeed and will be able to descend to the zone of 1.2770-1.2830. However, some analysts hope that amid the dovish rhetoric of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England will nevertheless decide to raise the interest rates. One can add to this the still persistent euphoria caused by the delay of Brexit. taken together, these factors let the bulls hope for the pair to return above the 1.3100 mark. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3130 and 1.3200. It is only 25% of analysts who agree that this will happen next week. But in the transition to the monthly forecast, 60% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 side with the bulls. As for the readings of oscillators, 15% of them signal that the pair is oversold, which means, if not a complete reversal of the trend, then at least a quick correction of the pair upwards; - USD/JPY. We expect the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and a press conference on the monetary policy of this Bank on Thursday, April 25. However, both of these events are unlikely to present any surprises. The side trend of this pair is also not conducive to forecast accuracy. That is why analysts' opinions on its behavior in the next five days have been divided almost equally: a third are for for its growth, a third are for a fall, and a third are for a continuation of the lateral movement. However, in the longer term, 65% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the pair to fall. 25% of oscillators also give signals that it is overbought. At the moment, the pair is still in the reversal zone near the upper boundary of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15, and, in the case of its downward movement, the targets for it will be the support levels 110.85, 110.35 and the lower boundary of the channel 109.70. If the dollar continues to grow against the Japanese currency, then its immediate task will be to consolidate in the zone of 112.20-113. 25 The next resistance is at 113.70; - Cryptocurrencies. Despite a more or less positive news background, 65% of experts remain pessimistic, believing that in the near future the BTC/USD pair will not be able to break through the resistance of $5,500. Moreover, according to their forecasts, bears will have a certain advantage in this market, pressing the pair to support $4,600. However, during the transition to the medium-term forecast, the alignment of forces changes to the opposite, and here already 60% of analysts believe that Bitcoin quotes at $5,750-5,800 are realistic. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  6. The Range of Services NordFX Offers to its Clients Is Enriched with One of the Most Popular Investment Services, PAMM Accounts Starting this April, NordFX clients can use one of the most popular and time-tested methods of trust management - PAMM-accounts (Percent Allocation Management Module). This is one of the most sought-after brokerage services, since transferring funds to be managed by one or more professional traders, who receive remuneration as a percentage of profits, is an effective tool for passive earnings for investors, ensuring a substantial protection of their capital. NordFX PAMM service offers some of the best terms in the market as well as a wide range of trading tools available on Pro and Zero accounts, including 33 currency pairs, metals, 15 crypto pairs, 4 crypto currency indexes, and CFD contracts for major world stock indices and oil. Trading is carried out on the MetaTrader-4 platform. The maximum leverage available on PAMM accounts is 1:1000. The minimum non-withdrawable amount of the manager’s own investments is $50. There are no requirements from the company for investors, and the managing trader determines the minimum amount for investments, as well as other terms, in his offer. You can learn more about the principles of the PAMM-service in the Trader's Cabinet in the “Investment Products” section at https://account.nordfx.com/account/pamm/. You can also open a corresponding account there by registering as a manager or as an investor. #pamm #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com
  7. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 15 - 19, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. Many traders complain of low volatility in the market. But even despite the pessimism of Mario Draghi shown by him after the ECB meeting on Wednesday 10 April, the euro managed to win back about 100 pips from the dollar over the past week and return to the very strong support/resistance zone of 1.1300, around which the pair started moving back in January 2015. The reason for this is most likely the delay in Brexit. As a result, the forecast which was given by 40% of analysts, supported by 20% of oscillators signaling that the pair was oversold, turned out to be correct. According to them, having pushed off support in the 1.1200 zone, the pair had to go up to resistance 1.1255 and, in case of a breakthrough, reach the height of 1.1300. And this actually happened; - GBP/USD. The overwhelming majority of analysts (65%) expected the strengthening of the British currency. Their forecast was based on the fact that an extraordinary meeting of the European Council would support a long extension of the Brexit procedure, and that the UK would not withdraw from the EU without a deal on April 12. That is exactly what happened. The British Parliament passed a law prohibiting a no-deal withdrawal, and the European Council delayed Brexit for up to six months. They would have given a longer delay if it were not for Macron, the president of France, who cannot wait to take the second place in the EU, after Germany, after the departure of the islanders. Graphical analysis on D 1 indicated a level of 1.3120 as the main resistance zone, which the pair reached on Tuesday, April 9, but failed to overcome it after 3 attempts. And in the end it finished the week at 1.3070; - USD/JPY. 85% of the experts were confident that the pair would necessarily test the upper limit of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15. And on Friday, April 12, it almost reached the target, rising to the height of 112.09. However, before that, the pair dropped to the center line of this channel and, only pushing away from it, showed an impressive rise of 115 points. Such a rise of the pair and the strengthening of the dollar against the yen were caused, according to analysts, primarily by the increase in the yield of long-term US bonds in the last two working days of the week; - Cryptocurrencies. The forecast for Bitcoin was justified by almost 100%. According to 70% of analysts, the main fluctuations of the BTC/USD pair were to occur in the range of $5,000-5,500, where it moved most of the time. Experts also expected bears to try to lower the pair below $4,800, however, all of the attempts were unsuccessful, and the local bottom was fixed at $4,930. As a result, the reference cryptocurrency completed the weekly cycle almost at the same place where it began, in the $5,100 zone. It should be noted that $5,100 is exactly the height to which Bitcoin unexpectedly took off on Tuesday, April 2. According to the basic version, that price spike was caused by just one investor, who left bids for the purchase of BTC for $100 million on three major exchanges, Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp. And the fact that the bull trend has not found its development testifies in favor of this particular version, since a one-time purchase, even for $100 million, cannot be a sufficient reason to start a steady growth of the market. And if Bitcoin, as well as Ethereum (ETH/USD), kept in the side corridor, the quotes of Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), EOS and some other top altcoins went into minus. Just on Thursday, April 11, they sank an average of 10%. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. If 60% of the trend indicators on D1 are still painted green, the oscillators show a completely different picture: a third of them have acquired a neutral gray color, and another third already signals the pair is overbought. 65% of experts also expect that if not immediately, then by the end of the month, the pair will go down, trying to test again, first the April 2 low - 1.1183, and then the March 07 low, 1.1175. The nearest support is 1.1250; At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 suggests that before heading south, the pair may rise for a while above the level of 1.1300, reaching the height of 1.1350. The next target of the bulls is 1.1420; - GBP/USD. Experts believe that the euphoria caused by the Brexit delay will quickly subside, and the pair will stay in a side trend for some time, moving within 1.2985-1.3150. The nearest support is 1.3050, the resistance is 1.3120. However, in the transition to the medium-term forecast, it is already 60% of analysts who have sided with the bulls, expecting the strengthening of the British pound and the pair’s transition to the 1.3200 -1.3350 zone. But the accuracy of this forecast again depends on what will happen around Brexit. There remains a risk of a second referendum, which may entail both a refusal of Brexit in general and, conversely, a British exit from the EU without an agreement. Any news and rumors on this subject can quickly turn the trend in one direction or another, but for now the demand for British currency remains very weak; - USD/JPY. The bull scenario remains a priority: 70% of the experts, supported by 100% of the trend indicators, look to the north. According to them, if the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds continues to grow, the pair, relying on support around 112.00, can rise to the area of 113.00-114.20. However, since at the moment the pair is in the reversal zone near the upper boundary of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15, a downward rebound of the pair is not excluded, as evidenced by signals from 25% of oscillators indicating it is overbought. Support levels are 110.85, 110.35 and the lower boundary of the channel is 109.70. USD/JPY quotes can also be affected by US-Japanese trade negotiations at the beginning of the upcoming week; - Among other events to which attention should be paid are the following publications: data on the UK labor market and the index of business sentiment ZEW (Germany) on Tuesday, April 16; China's GDP, the UK Consumer Price Index and the Eurozone Inflation Report on Wednesday April 17; UK and US retail sales data on Thursday, April 18; and finally, Japan's consumer price index on Friday, April 19; - Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background around the main cryptocurrency is quite positive. The Bitcoin network has overcome another milestone. Over the entire history of the first cryptocurrency, its blockchain has processed more than 400 million transactions. At the moment, the network processes about 350 thousand transfers per day or 14.9 thousand per hour. Approximately 81.5 thousand BTC moves every 60 minutes, and the average transaction size is 5.44 BTC. Financial analyst and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee said optimistically in an interview with Bloomberg that Bitcoin is back in a bullish trend and the fair price for it today is $14,000. However, not everyone shares his attitude. For example, Brian Armstrong, the head of Coinbase Exchange, believes that the mass influx of investors into the crypto sphere will begin only after three main tasks related to digital assets have been solved. This is the scalability, usability and Bitcoin volatility. If we talk about a medium-term forecast, the majority of analysts (70%) believe that the BTC/USD pair will necessarily reach $6,000. However, in the coming days, it is likely to move in the range of $4,935-5,335, making attempts to break through these boundaries in one direction or another. So, considering emissions, the range of fluctuations can be expanded to $4,600-5,500. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  8. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 08 - 12, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The vast majority of analysts (75%), supported by 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators, said last week that if the pair overcomes the support level of 1.1200, it will be able to continue moving down. The closest goal is the low of 2018-19, recorded on March 7, 1.1175. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 stated that the pair would not be able to overcome this support and would return to the horizon 1.1340. This is what in fact happened. True, the amplitude of oscillations was less than expected: the weekly low was fixed at 1.1183, and the high at 1.1254. As a result, the pair demonstrated the classic sideways trend. Traders even ignored the positive US dollar report on the US labor market, released on Friday, April 5, and the pair completed the working week at 1.1215; - GBP/USD. The behavior of the pair is still dependent on the news of developing political and economic operation called Brexit. News from the “battlefield” - from the Parliament of Great Britain - initially pushed the pound up, since Teresa May promised to hold successful negotiations with the opposition leaders. Investors began to actively buy pounds, and, as predicted by graphical analysis, it quickly reached the center of the five-week side corridor 1.2960-1.3350 at the level of 1.3150. But the first round of negotiations ended in failure, and investment funds began to close positions on the pound. At the same time, the negative background was supplemented by the news from the European Parliament, which mockingly rubs its hands, watching the rift of the British colleagues. As a result, the trend for this pair changed every two days and, having experienced a series of ups and downs, it put the final point almost at the same place as a week ago, at around 1.3035; - USD/JPY. Recall that at the beginning of the week the pair was practically in the center of the channel 109.70-112.15. And the question was whether it would go down or up. Although only 35% of the experts voted for its growth, declarations of Donald Trump on the successful course of the US and China trade negotiations, and the growth of the US stock market moved the pair up. Having reached a high at 111.80 on Friday, April 5, after a small pullback, the pair completed the five-day week 10 points lower; - Cryptocurrencies. Our forecast last week said that the bitcoin would be able to overcome the resistance of $4,200 and gain a foothold in the range of $4,200-4,280. But on Tuesday, April 2, the reference cryptocurrency made an unexpected jump and, soaring by 14.4%, broke the bar of $5,000. This movement was the strongest jump since the boom of the end of 2017. Traders are wondering what is behind this surge, a variety of versions has been expressed. The version voiced by Oliver von Landsberg-Sadie, the head of the BCB Group, in an interview with Reuters, seems most likely. He said that the bitcoin price jump was caused by just one investor, who distributed bids for the purchase of BTC for $100 million on three major exchanges - Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp. The total volume of transactions then amounted to about 20.000 BTC, and the total capitalization of the crypto market exceeded $170 billion. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. On Wednesday, April 10, we are waiting for the next ECB interest rate decision. Most likely, it will remain unchanged. But it became known that the European regulator is actively discussing options for more aggressive stimulation of the economy. This can be either a reduction in rates or an increase in the QE quantitative easing program. This news contributes to the growth of investor interest in shares of European companies and to a fall in interest in the European currency. Also, on Wednesday the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee minutes will be published, which should shed light on the further monetary policy of the American regulator. For the nearest future, the strongest factor putting pressure on the euro, of course, is the tiresome mess with Brexit. Perhaps that is why 60% of the experts, supported by 100% of the indicators and 80% of the oscillators on D1, have voted for a further decline of the pair. The immediate goal is the low of 07 March 2019, 1.1175, the next support was recorded in the summer of 2017. and is located 60 points lower. 40% of analysts preferred the bulls. Moreover, it is already 20% of oscillators on D1 that give signals the pair is oversold. In their opinion, having pushed off support in the 1.1200 zone, the pair will go up to resistance 1.1255 and, in case of a breakthrough, move to the height of 1.1300. The next resistance is 1.1345. - GBP/USD. Interestingly, if most experts believe that Brexit will continue to have a negative impact on the euro, the opinion on the pound is opposite. 65% of analysts expect the upcoming week to strengthen the British currency. Their forecast is based on the fact that the extraordinary meeting of the European Council on April 10 will support the extension of the Brexit procedure for a long time and that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU without a deal on April 12 will not take place. the graphical analysis on D1 is also in solidarity with such a forecast, indicating that the pair is growing, first to the zone of 1.3120, and then to resistances of 1.3200 and 1.3265. A fall of the pair is expected by 35% of analysts and 90% of indicators. At the same time, 10% of oscillators are already signaling that the pair is oversold, which indicates the traders' doubts about the future of this pair. Support levels are 1.2975, 1.2900 and 1.2830; - USD/JPY. Over the past two weeks, the pair has gone from the bottom of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15 almost to its upper limit, ending the week at 111.70. And 85% of experts are sure that it will definitely test the resistance of 112.15. But those who believe that the pair will be able to rise even higher and reach the level of 113.00, are only 35%. So, the probability that the pair will not go beyond the upper limit of this channel is large enough. 25% of oscillators on D1, which are already in the overbought zone, agree with this. The basic support is Pivot Point of the channel 110.80; - Cryptocurrencies. An unexpected bitcoin jump spawned a whole wave of all sorts of events and rumors. Thus, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto has reappeared from oblivion. He has re-activated a Bitcointalk account that has been inactive for many years. Over the past 10 years, the identity of Satoshi has not been disclosed, although there are various assumptions about who may be hiding under this mask. Thus, a group of hackers who have hacked several large crypto-exchanges, believes that he is American entrepreneur, inventor and engineer Ilon Musk. In their opinion, the largest transactions with cryptocurrencies (possibly the last one for $100 million as well) were carried out from the Bel Air neighborhood in Los Angeles. And it is there that the legendary founder of SpaceX and Tesla has been living for many years. As for the forecast, 70% of analysts believe that the main fluctuations of the BTC/USD pair in the coming week will occur in the range of $5,000-5,500. However, the remaining 30% are confident that a one-time purchase of bitcoins by one investor, even for $100 million, is not a sufficient reason to start a steady bull trend. And so the pair has a lot of chances to go below $4,800 horizon. In this case, the main level of resistance is the $5,100 horizon. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  9. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 01 - 05, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. Despite the decline in the GDP data, the US dollar has felt pretty confident this week. And it’s not the US President, not the Fed, but, first of all, the Prime Minister and the Parliament of Great Britain, who can’t decide how to get out of the stalemate that they themselves have driven, who are the reason. Naturally, the ambiguity with Brexit could not but put pressure on the European currency, which has been falling all week. And any attempts of the bulls to change the trend rested on the downward resistance line (1.1447-1.1230). And only on Friday, just before the next vote in the British Parliament, did the pair move to a sideways movement. Thus, starting from March 20, it lost about 235 points, fixing the low at the level of 1.1209, very close to a very important support/resistance level of 1.1200; - GBP/USD. It is not for nothing that the ancient Greeks called Britain Foggy Albion. The British managed to let the Brexit procedure go in so much fog that it’s impossible to see the road from the EU even at arm's length. As of the end of Friday, March 29, we can state the following. Parliament voted three times against the deal with the EU in the Theresa May version. But it voted against withdrawing without any deal at all as well. The country's leadership should formulate further plans until April 12 or withdraw without a deal (but Parliament is against such an exit). Mrs. May is likely to propose an extension of the Brexit procedure based on article 50 of the European Union Treaty. But then the UK will have to participate in the European election, which is again opposed by the parliamentarians. Europe does not really understand how to act in a situation of such uncertainty either, which is why an emergency EU summit is being convened. And the British pound has so far rolled down to the lower border of the five-week side corridor 1.2960-1.3350, but did not leave it, having fought off later by 55 points up and having completed the five-day period at the level of 1.3030; - USD/JPY. The dollar strengthening and not reducing risk appetites of investors could not but touch the yen. Recall that 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 at the end of last week already gave signals this pair had been oversold, which is a fairly accurate precursor of the trend reversal, and graphical analysis indicated a rise in the pair above 110.75. Everything happened according to this scenario: the pair made a throw to the north, rising from the level of 109.70 to 110.90. The final chord sounded at 110.85; - Cryptocurrencies. Our forecast last week said that, amid the absence of serious news, the BTC/USD pair would not fall below $3,900 but would try to overcome resistance in the $4,200 zone. That's exactly what happened. Having fixed the low at $3,938 on Monday March 25, the pair turned around and was moving upward for all the remaining days, reaching $4,190 by Friday and thus completing the two-week cycle almost at the same place where it began. Following Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) demonstrated similar dynamics, having gained almost 100% of their recent losses. And it was only Ripple (XRP/USD) that could not return to the March 16 high, $0.328, and stopped a little below its 10-week Pivot Point $0.318. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. If the pair overcomes the support level of 1.1200, it will be able to continue moving down. 75% of analysts, 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this. The closest goal is the low of 2018-19, recorded on March 7,1.1175. The following support is located 50 points below. But, despite this seemingly clear advantage of the bulls, not everything is so straightforward. Already now, 10% of oscillators signal the pair. is oversold. Graphic analysis on D1 also indicates that it will not be able to overcome such a strong support as 1.1175 and will return to the horizon 1.1340. In the medium term, 60% of experts agree with the return to the area of 1.1300-1.1500. As for economic events, one should pay attention to the publication of statistics on the consumer market in the Eurozone and the United States on Monday, April 1, as well as data on the US labor market (including NFP), which will be released on Friday, April 5. Analysts expect the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector to rise sharply in March compared with February, from 20K to 175K, even though the growth of the average wage will remain at the same level. Such data should strengthen the dollar, but it must be borne in mind that the market very often takes these forecasts into account in advance in its quotes. - GBP/USD. At the time of writing, the forecast for this pair is almost one-to-one similar to the forecast for EUR/USD. This also applies to the bearish attitude of 75% of the experts, and the red color of the indicators. In addition to the fog with Brexit, the UK has a very serious trade deficit, the interest rate is low, and the pound is subject to great risks, which is why investors avoid investing in the British economy. The pound finished the week close to the strong support/resistance level of 1.3000. But, unlike the euro, it is still far away from the lows of 2018-2019. So, a breakthrough below 1.3000 opens the way for the pound to supports 1.2830 and 1.2770. The similarity with the euro this week concerns both the bearish and the bullish scenarios. Here, oversold signals are signaled by 10% of oscillators, and graphical analysis shows that, after having fallen to 1.2960, the pair will turn up and head towards the center of the five-week side corridor 1.2960-1.3350 in the 1.3150 zone; - USD/JPY. The upcoming movement of this pair can be limited to the channel 109.70-112.15. The pair is practically in its center at the moment, and the only question is where it will move now, down or up. Most trend indicators and oscillators look to the north at H4, while at D1 they take a neutral position. At the same time, 15% of oscillators on H4 indicate that the pair is overbought. As for analysts, 65% of them, supported by graphical analysis on H4, have sided with the bears. And 35%, along with graphical analysis on D1, give victory to the bulls; - Cryptocurrencies. Since December 15 last year, the total capitalization of the crypto market has grown by almost 40%, reaching a high of $143.366 billion on Wednesday, March 27. This is undoubtedly a good sign and gives hope that the Bitcoin will manage to overcome the resistance of $4,200 and gain a foothold in the range of $4,200-4,280. Almost 65% of experts agree with this forecast. The next target for the bulls is the zone 4,365-4,385, where the highs of November-December 2018 are located. However, we recall that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the balance of power changes, and here, as before, 70% of analysts side with the bears, voting for the reduction of the pair to the $3,000 mark. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  10. NordFX Hits Record for Better Trading Terms At the end of this March, the broker company NordFX has made another improvement in trading conditions, significantly reducing spreads and transaction costs, thanks to which the company's clients have received new additional opportunities to increase their income. The changes have affected two types of trading accounts. The spreads on currency pairs have been reduced by almost 30% on the Pro account, and as for the Zero account with spreads from 0 points, the transaction fee has been reduced from 0.0045% to 0.0035%. Considering the fact that the speed of order execution is less than 0.5 sec and the leverage is up to 1:1000, NordFX clients now have an opportunity to carry out transactions with currencies on terms that are among the most profitable in the financial services market. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com
  11. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 25 - 29, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The Federal Reserve has left the interest rate unchanged, at 2.5%, and is no longer going to raise it this year. The Fed also lowered its forecasts for US GDP and inflation and raised the unemployment forecast for 2019-2021. Such actions and statements of the American regulator confirm the start of a recession, which should negatively affect the US currency. As a result, the dollar fell to the mark of $1.1447 for 1 euro on Thursday, March 20. But then, instead of continuing to decline, it recovered in relation to almost all major currencies, and, above all, in relation to the euro. This happened due to disappointing data from Germany – PMI (business activity index in the manufacturing sector) in February was only 44.7 instead of the expected value of 48.0. This news caused concern about the global economic crisis once again and led not only to a depreciation of the euro, but also to a sharp drop in stocks and bonds. The pair EUR/USD lost 175 points in two days, and then, after a small rebound, completed the week at 1.1300; - GBP/USD. The Brexit final stage is delayed. The pitiable finale for the pound is delayed as well. The British currency lost about 300 points in the first four days of the week, coming close to the level of 1.3000. However, the pigeon rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve Head Jerome Powell and the “help” from the EU, which gave Prime Minister Teresa May time until April 12 to resolve the issue of accepting her deal, allowed the pound to move a little away from the brink of abyss and finish the five-day close to a strong support /resistance level 1.3200; - USD/JPY. Unlike its European “colleagues”, the past week was successful for the yen. Against the backdrop of expectations of a recession, a revision of macroeconomic forecasts and a fall in the value of stocks and bonds in the United States and Europe, the pair dropped to 109.70 by mid-Friday, March 22, and the final chord sounded at 109.90; - Cryptocurrencies. All sorts of gurus continue to hypnotize the public with predictions of an upcoming rise of digital currencies. So, famous American venture investor Tim Draper believes that the massive transition to cryptocurrency will begin in about two years' time. And Tom Lee, a financial analyst and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, has given a shorter-term forecast, having said in an interview to CNBC that the bearish sentiment on the bitcoin market will be replaced by the bullish one within six months. The turning point, in his opinion, will be in August, and the BTC rate can easily reach $10-20,000. In contrast to this, yet virtual, optimism, quite real pessimistic notes are heard. For example, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), which once launched Bitcoin futures trading, has now refused to add new contracts. On such a news background, as we predicted, the BTC/USD did not manage to break above the $4,150 horizon. The only hope for investors can be the fact that the pair did not fall below $4,000 for almost the entire week, which allows us to go on talking about an uptrend, albeit a weak one. Also, the Litecoin (LTC/USD) has not left the limits of the ascending channel, the Ethereum (ETH/USD) is consolidating near the $139.00 horizon, and for the Ripple (XRP/USD), a 10-week Pivot Point can be considered the level of $0.318. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. The situation with this pair can be described as a complete ... uncertainty. On the one hand, the slowdown in US GDP, on the other - disappointment with the prospects for the German economy. The Fed’s refusal to raise the interest rate is playing against the dollar, and the endless uncertainty with the UK leaving the EU is playing against the euro. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds touched more than a year's bottom, but the yield on 10-year German bonds is on the verge of falling below 0%. US futures S&P 500 fell by 0.5%, and European stocks are in the red, approaching as for the main indexes to a loss of 1%. This swing can be swung indefinitely. That is why the votes of experts this week have been evenly divided, 50 to 50. It should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, 70% of analysts are already on the side of bulls. The graphical analysis on H4 draws first the rise to the level of 1.1380 for the coming days, then the fall to the level of 1.1175, after which the pair should return to the limits of the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570. As for the events of the coming week, we can note the speech of the ECB Head Mario Draghi on Wednesday, March 27, as well as the publication of the German consumer price index and annual data on US GDP on Thursday, March 28. Moreover, according to the forecast, the real value of GDP may be 0.2% lower than the previous one. - GBP/USD. Prime Minister Theresa May asked the European Union to delay the exit of Britain from the EU until June 30, 2019. However, the EU has already said that the delay should be longer. Otherwise, there should be no delay at all. The transfer of Brexit for such a short time is a very undesirable option, as it simply prolongs the ambiguity, of which everyone is already rather tired, and which constantly puts pressure on the pound. At the moment, most experts (60%) believe that the pair should test the level of 1.3000 again, and, in case of its breakdown, reach the bottom at the level of March 11 low, 1.2955. An alternative point of view will be realized at the release of positive news regarding Brexit, in which case the pair can rise to the height of 1.3310. The following resistance levels are 1.3350 and 1.3 445; - USD/JPY. The overwhelming majority of both trend indicators and oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. However, already 15% of oscillators on both timeframes signal that the pair is oversold. The graphical analysis on D1 speaks About a possible reversal of the trend to the north, according to its readings, the pair can return to the zone 110.75-112.15. The opinions of the experts are divided as follows: 50% have voted for the pair to fall further, 30% are for its upward reversal and 20% are for its lateral movement. The formation of trends , as this have been happening recently, will be influenced by news regarding the course of the US-China negotiations and macroeconomic indicators from Europe and the USA, supporting or refuting the possibility of a new global economic crisis; - Cryptocurrencies. The total capitalization of the crypto market has slowly grown to the value of last November, checking out on Wednesday March 20 at the height of $141.6 billion. It is possible that this is why, for the first time in a long time, 70% of the experts have not given gloomy forecasts, and limited to moderate optimism. In their opinion, the BTC/USD pair will not fall below $3,900 next week but will try to overcome the resistance of $4,200. However, in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the balance of powers changes, and here, as before, 70% of analysts side with the bears, voting for the decline of the pair in spring below $3,000. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  12. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 18 - 22, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. During the whole week, the European currency was pushed up not only by the growth of the Euro Stoxx 600 index, accompanied by the pigeon rhetoric of the ECB Head Mario Draghi, but also, above all, by an optimistic attitude regarding the exit conditions (and perhaps not the exit) of the UK from the EU. As a result, the pair re-consolidated within the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570, in which it has been moving since end October 2018, and even approached its central line, reaching a height of 1.1338 on Wednesday, March 13. Thursday, March 14, turned out to be the only bad day for the European currency. It became known on this day that there would be no meeting of the leaders of the United States and China, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, in March, and it may happen only in April. This news again aroused investors' interest in the dollar, though not for long, and the pair could be seen at 1.1345 on Friday. As for the end of the trading session, thanks to a strong University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the pair met it 20 points lower, at the level of 1.1325; - GBP/USD. Most experts expected strengthening of the British currency and its growth in March first to the February high (1.3350), and then 200 points higher. This forecast starts to come true: last week's high was fixed at the height of 1.3380, and the pair completed the five-day marathon in the area of a very strong resistance level of 1.3300. The weekly amplitude of oscillations reached 420 points. And if you look at the pair’s chart, it somehow resembles a cardiogram, whose jumps and falls are related to what was happening these days in London. The Parliament of Great Britain voted against a repeated referendum and spoke in favor of postponing Brexit's deadline to June 30. At the same time, the “hard” exit scenario, without a deal with the EU, was rejected. Now, Prime Minister Theresa May will have to bow to the European Union with a request to postpone Brexit. But the EU {0reaction to this is another question, since all 27 countries of this community should give their consent to this. And what will happen with the new agreement is also unclear. If the parties could not agree for more than two years, what can they do in the next three months? - USD/JPY. As most analysts predicted, the pair remained within the ascending channel, which began at the very beginning of January 2019, and almost reached the bar at 112.00. It stayed only 10 points below this height, but the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, managed to halt the fall of his national currency. Economic performance of Japan does not look best. The trade deficit is the largest in 6 years, and the reduction in exports to China is the highest in 2 years. This is partly due to the celebration of the New Year in China, but the fact remains that Japan has suffered greatly from the slowdown in global economic growth. The planned increase in sales tax for 2019 does not add optimism either. However, according to Kuroda, things are not all that bad. “At present,” he said at a press conference on March 15, “our main scenario assumes the recovery of the economies of China and the eurozone in the second half of this year.” “And the Japanese economy itself remains in moderate expansion, and the impulse to achieve the inflation target of 2%, remains unchanged.” - Cryptocurrencies. There is such a famous philosophical paradox, called Buridan's Ass. This is a parable of the ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle, and its meaning lies in the problem of choice. There is a donkey dying of hunger, and it stands exactly in the middle between two absolutely identical heaps of hay. Which one to choose? According to the parable, the donkey could not decide and, in the end, died of hunger. There are no donkeys in the cryptocurrency community, there are bulls and bears, but even they have been roaming along one line for many weeks, not knowing which way to go in order to get enough profit. The above is a metaphor. But the fact that the price of Bitcoin has consolidated around $3,900 is a fact. It is for the third week that the maximum volatility does not exceed 200-300 points. Some experts hopefully call this the end of the accumulation phase and the lull before a storm. But what is considered a storm? As predicted, the BTC/USD pair moved in the $3,850-4,050 corridor last week. Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) demonstrated similar modest volatility. And it was only Ripple (XRP/USD) that showed several spikes, although later everything calmed down and returned to normal. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. On the one hand, the slowdown in US GDP and the prospects for economic recovery in the Eurozone play in favor of the European currency. On the other hand, Trump’s threats to launch a new round of economic wars against the EU are causing alarm for the future of the Euro. As a result, most experts (65%) believe that the pair will continue to balance in the range of 1.1215-1.1570. At the same time, positive information on Brexit will contribute to its targeted advancement to the upper boundary of this channel. The nearest strong resistance is in the 1.1400 zone, the next one is 100 points higher. On Wednesday, March 20, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the traditional press conference of Jerome Powell, the head of this organization, await us. There will most likely be no surprises for the first issue, and the rate will remain unchanged so far. Most of the experts (60%) believe that its next increase will occur only in September or even later. But Powell can make adjustments to these forecasts in his speech, and then the pair may turn down, break down the lower border of the channel 1.1215, and return to the March 7 low, 1.1175. About 15% of experts do not even rule the decline of the pair in March-April to the area of 1.1000-1.1100; - GBP/USD. On Tuesday, March 19 and Wednesday, the 20th a block of macroeconomic data from the UK will be published, and on Thursday the 21st, the decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate. But all these events are fading compared to the next episode of the series called Brexit: there will be another vote in the Parliament on the deal with the EU on March 20, which will certainly cause the pair to increase its volatility. The pair completed the past week in the zone of a very strong resistance level 1.3300, which it has been trying to overcome since last June. Whether this zone will become a level of support depends on the note on which this meeting of the Parliament ends, and also what signals will come from the Bank of England the next day. 70% of analysts, supported by 90% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1, are optimistic, considering that the pair will be able to rise to the level of 1.3470. The next target is 1.3600. An alternative point of view is supported by 30% of experts. According to them, the pound has already exhausted its potential, and the pair is facing lateral movement in the channel 1.2960-1.3300. Support/resistance levels are 1.3080 and 1.3200; - USD/JPY. The basic forecast for this pair remains the same: 75% of analysts believe that the uptrend will continue, the pair will overcome the bar at 112.00, after which it is expected to move in the side channel 112.25-113.70, as it was in last November-December. The forecast that is drawn by graphical analysis on D1 looks more restrained: lateral movement within 111.35-112.70. As for indicators, 70% of them, both on H4 and D1, are colored green, 20% are gray, neutral, and only 10% are red. In the case of a trend reversal, support levels are 109.10, 110.25 and 110.75; - Cryptocurrencies. If you look at the Bitcoin chart, you have a bad feeling about another disaster. Look at the segment from mid-July to mid-November 2018: gradual decrease in volatility, consolidation, calm and, as a result ... a drop in quotes by almost 45%, - from $6,500 to $3,660. And now take a look at the period from mid-November to today. You see absolutely the same picture: a gradual decrease in volatility, consolidation, calm and, as a result ... But what the result will be, is still unknown. The crypto market is known for its unpredictability. Although, 70% of specialists vote for the fall of the pair BTC/USD in spring below $3,000. As for the forecast for the near future, it remains unchanged: most likely, the pair will continue to move along the horizon of $3,900 with quotes spikes by 200-300 points in one direction or another. It should be noted that the trading conditions offered by the brokerage company NordFX make it possible to profit intraday even on most minor fluctuations of cryptocurrencies. Trading takes place on the MT4 and MT5 platforms familiar to traders, commissions are minimal, and just $100 for MT5 or $300 for MT4 is enough to open a buy or a sell position with a volume of 1 Bitcoin (1 lot). Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  13. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 11 - 15, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. The pair collapsed on Thursday, March 7, after the ECB announced that it was not worth waiting for the increase in interest rates this autumn. The earliest when this can happen is 2020. In addition, it became known that the European regulator plans to launch LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) in September - a program to refinance European banks at low interest rates. If we add the reduction in forecasts for GDP and inflation to this, as well as statistics on foreign trade of China that are not the best for the Eurozone, the picture for the European currency is rather sad. As a result, by mid-Friday, the pair slipped to the values of summer 2017 (1.1175), literally jumping out of the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570. However, data on the US labor market published on March 8 (NFP) allowed the bulls to turn the trend up. After the number of new jobs amounted to 311K in January, it was expected that in February this figure would be equal to 180K. In reality, the result turned out to be many times worse, only 20K, which made it possible to once again talk about stagnation in the US economy and to return the pair to the level of 1.1235; - GBP/USD. As expected by most analysts (60%), on the eve of the re-vote in the UK Parliament on the EU deal, which should occur on March 12, the pound continued its decline, losing about 200 points in a week and reaching values in the 1.3000 zone; - USD/JPY. Recall that last week about 20% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 already gave signals this pair was overbought, which allowed us to expect a fairly strong downward correction. This is what happened in reality, the yen almost won back the losses of the last week of February and ended the five-day period at the level of 111.15; - Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has been slowly and not very confidently, but still growing for the last month and a half. Somebody, of course, may have some hopes out of the growth of 16%. But, if you look at the chart, it is clearly visible that any efforts of the bulls immediately meet with active resistance from the bears, who categorically do not want to release the main cryptocurrency beyond the 15-week highs. Therefore, it is still possible to talk about the consolidation of BTC in the $3,900 zone. As for the capitalization of the crypto market, here everything looks quite prosaic and monotonous: starting from the end of December, its volumes fluctuate in a fairly narrow range from $110 billion to $135 billion (not counting a one-time surge to $141 billion). Of the top altcoins, Litecoin (LTC/USD) has shown the most visible growth, having added almost 90% in a month and a half. For Ethereum (ETH/USD), this indicator looks much more modest: plus 30%, while for Ripple (XRP/USD) the increase was only 10%. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: The week March 11 to 15 will literally be filled with events, each of which can not only cause an increase in volatility, but also lead to a change in the trends’ direction. So, on Monday, March 11, a meeting of eurozone finance ministers will be held in Brussels. And on the same day in the evening, the data on the US “retail sales control group” will become known, which, according to forecasts, may slightly strengthen the dollar. Tuesday will also see the publication of economic statistics from the United States, this time it will be the consumer price index. Attention should be paid to the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, J. Powell on monetary policy. On Wednesday, we are expecting a report on the UK budget, as well as statistics on retail sales and industrial production in China. On Thursday, we will learn what is happening with consumer prices in Germany, and on Friday we will hear Haruhiko Kuroda’s comment on the prospects for the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. But all these rather important events fade before what should happen on Tuesday, March 12, in the capital of the United Kingdom. It is on this day that a second vote will be held in the British Parliament on the terms of Brexit, and, in the event of another failure of Prime Minister May, lawmakers will be able to vote on March 13 to postpone the negotiations and postpone Brexit to a later date. Theoretically, even a second referendum on the exit of the UK from the EU is not excluded. These votes can affect not only the quotes of the major world currencies, but also the future of the world economy as a whole. In the meantime, analysts' opinions are as follows: - EUR/USD. 60% of experts, supported by almost 90% of oscillators and trend indicators, expect the euro to further fall to the 1.1100-1.1125 zone. It should be noted that in the transition to the forecast for the second half of March, 60% of analysts are already siding with the bulls, waiting for the pair to return to level 1.1400-1.1500; - GBP/USD. 65% of the experts have now voted for the decline of the pair to the level of 1.2850-1.2900. However, in the transition to longer-term forecasts, as well as in the case of the euro, the majority (60%) expects the British currency to strengthen and rise to the maximum of February (1.3350) and then 200 points higher; - USD/JPY. Despite the fall of the pair last week, it remains within the ascending channel, which began at the very beginning of January 2019. That is why 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will overcome the bar at 112.00, after which it is expected to move in the side channel 112.25-113.70, as it was last November-December. The alternative point of view is supported by 40% of experts, who believe that the pair has not yet reached its local bottom, which is in the zone of 109.70-110.10; - Cryptocurrencies. There is a saying "Many men, many minds". A well-known crypto trader and one of the top authors on TradingView under the pseudonym MagicPoopCannon has conducted a survey among his followers on Twitter, asking them to give an answer regarding the long-term price of Bitcoin. About 3 thousand subscribers took part in the voting. According to their answers, the majority (42%) believes that over the next four years, the price of Bitcoin will be in the interval between $100,000 and $1 million, 30% called a number between $20,000 and $100,000, 13% in the range from $3.000 to $20.000 and 15% predicted this cryptocurrency the darkest future, calling the range from $0 to $3,000. As for the forecast for the near future, according to most experts, the BTC/USD pair will most likely continue to move in the $3,600-4,300 range, waiting for some really serious news that will help break through the boundaries of this channel in any direction. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  14. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 04 - 08, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. For the first half of the week, the euro was growing due to expectations that the UK’s exit from the EU will be postponed indefinitely. The pair rose above the center line of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500. However, the last day of winter, February 28, made its own adjustments, inspiring fans of the dollar. The estimate of US GDP for 2018 turned out to be much higher than the forecast. A very strong index of business activity in Chicago played in favor of the dollar. As a result, the pair went down, but the joy of the bears was short-lived. The impulse was so weak that it could not even come close to the support of 1.1300. And after the publication of the ISM Business Activity Index on March 1, which turned out to be worse than the previous value, and worse than the forecast, the pair went up again. This was followed by another unsuccessful attempt to break through the defenses of the bulls, after which the pair completed the week at 1.1365; - GBP/USD. So, the British Parliament has agreed to the proposal of Prime Minister Theresa May to vote on the impossibility of Brexit without a deal with the EU, as well as the need to postpone the withdrawal of the country from the European Union. Please note: this is not a postponement of the Brexit date, but only the consent of the Parliament to put this issue to a vote. But this was enough for the pound to grow by 300 points and reach the height of 1.3350 by the middle of the week. And then everything was, as in the case of the euro: some restoration of the dollar's position, then sad statistics from the US on Friday, and as a result, the final chord of the pair is at the level of 1.3200; - USD/JPY. The quotes of the Japanese currency last week were influenced by two unpleasant factors. Firstly, it is the continuing growth of the risk appetites of investors and the capital outflow to countries with developing economies. The second blow was the growing, due to the positive statistics released on Thursday, yield of US Treasury bonds. Recall that last week 70% of experts voted for a further fall of the yen and the rise of the pair to the level 111.50-112.50. Due to these factors, this forecast turned out to be accurate, and the pair recorded the week high at the height of 112.07, after which it completed the five-day week at 111.90; - Cryptocurrencies. As is often the case in this market, the biggest jumps in quotations happen during the weekend, after which the market falls into hibernation on working days. It so happened this time as well. On Saturday, February 23, Bitcoin took off to the height of $4,280, after which, no less quickly, crashed to $3,810, after which it moved to lateral movement, one approaching, one moving away from the key horizon of $4,000. Other top coins, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple and others, showed similar dynamics. At the same time, the pairs LTC/USD and XRP/USD completed the seven-day period almost at the same place where they started, once again confirming the opinion that there are no really serious drivers capable of forming a really powerful trend for the entire market. The total market capitalization for the week fell by 7.8%, from $141 billion to $130 billion. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. Statistics show that in 2018, the US economy grew by 2.9%. President Trump promises that in 2019 it will continue to grow, naming a figure of 3.0%. Logic suggests that in such a situation it is necessary to actively buy dollars. However, unlike Trump, the Fed predicts a recession and a fall in GDP up to 2.3%. If we add the assurances of the ECB of the steady growth of the Eurozone economy by 0.5% in each quarter of 2019 to this, the situation no longer seems so unambiguous. The analysts' forecasts look the same ambiguous, their opinions are divided exactly in half, 50% are for the growth of the pair, 50% are for its decline. At the same time, according to the version of both, the pair is likely to stay in the corridor 1.1300-1.1500, in which is moving from the end of October 2018. Of course, emissions to extremes are not excluded, however, in this case the range of oscillations will be slightly wider - 1.1215-1.1570. If we go from a weekly to a medium-term forecast, there is already a majority among supporters of the European currency (65%), who predict the growth of the pair to the 1.1700-1.1800 zone. Now a few words about technical analysis. More than 80% of the indicators are colored green, but already 15% of the oscillators on D1 give signals that the pair is overbought. As for the graphical analysis, it draws the wave-like movement of the pair in channel 1.1215-1.1455 on the daily time frame. Of the important events of the upcoming week, attention should be paid to the ECB meeting on Thursday, March 7, at the end of which it will perhaps become clear who will be the next chairperson of this bank. Also, traditionally, volatility in the markets can be added by data on Eurozone GDP on Thursday and statistics on the US labor market on Friday, March 8; - GBP/USD. Of course, last week’s optimism regarding the pound was a temporary phenomenon. A possible postponement of Brexit is nothing more than a delay, not a solution. And it will become clear only in the middle of the month whether it happens at all. On March 12, a second vote will be held on the deal, and in case of another failure of Ms. May, on March 13, the question will be raised that the United Kingdom could not leave the EU without an agreement. If the Parliament approves such a decision, the next day, lawmakers will be able to vote for a delay in negotiations, which means that Brexit will be postponed to a later date. Nobody knows what impact Brexit itself and its postponement will have on the economy of the British Kingdom. But so far, a slight advantage is with the bears: 60% of analysts predict the pair to fall to the level of 1.3115, the following supports are 1.2965 and 1.2830. The remaining 40% of experts believe that the pound, having pushed off from the support of 1.3200, can still grow and reach the levels of 1.3315, 1.3470 and in the medium term - 1.3615; - USD/JPY. Growing risk appetites and oil prices give the majority (65%) of experts a reason to expect a further fall in the yen and the pair's growth to the level of 112.25-113.25. The ultimate goal is 114.20. The graphical analysis on D1 also agrees with this development of events. However, already about 20% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 give signals the pair is overbought, which is a precursor of a fairly strong downward correction. Therefore, in the transition to the monthly forecast, already 70% of analysts vote for the trend reversal and the decline of the pair to 110.25. The next support is at 109.15; - Cryptocurrencies. In general, despite some subsidence of the crypto market, the news background in this area looks quite positive. After JPMorgan was the first of the US banks to test its own digital coin, JPM Coin, everyone is waiting for the development of similar projects from Facebook and Telegram. And the introduction of cryptocurrency in WhatsApp should cover 35% of the world's population. In such a situation, crypto enthusiasts predict the next take-off for digital currencies. So, for example, according to IBM Vice President for Blockchain Jesse Lund, the price of the reference cryptocurrency will exceed $5,000 by the end of 2019, and then it will start to rise sharply and eventually reach $1 million. It is clear that the prediction about a million dollars for 1 BTC is not even a forecast, but a dream. But with respect to the near future, most experts (65%) are positive, considering that Bitcoin will definitely consolidate above the $4,000 level, rising to the $4,300-4,600 zone. However, the number of pessimists, as before, is quite large, 35%. In their opinion, we will soon see BTC quotes around $3,200-3,500. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
  15. Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 25 - March 01, 2019 First, a review of last week’s events: - EUR/USD. For almost the entire week, the pair stayed where it had been repeatedly a week, a month, and two or three months ago. Apart from the rare short-term breakthroughs, the pair cannot break out of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500. If we expand this channel to extremum points, it will be slightly wider: 1.1215-1.1570. This was due to the lack of clarity both on Brexit and on the US-China negotiations. One can add to this, on the one hand, the desire of the Fed to curb the growth of interest rates, and on the other, weak statistics on the economy of Germany and the Eurozone. As soon as the dollar begins to grow, rumors from the ECB about the possibility of launching an anti-crisis LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) or articles by venerable analysts saying that the US currency is overbought, appear, and the trend is again turning in favor of the euro. As a result, the dollar was unable to break through the lower boundary of the channel last week and ended the session at 1.1335; - GBP/USD. Despite the incessant talk about the possibility of the chaotic Brexit, the pound showed an impressive growth on Tuesday, February 19. Even Fitch’s warning about the possibility of lowering the UK credit rating did not scare the bulls. Having stepped over the psychological level of 1.3000, the pound rose another 100 points higher, followed by a rebound, and the pair continued to move along the 1.3000 horizon, stopping at 1.3050 at midnight Friday; - USD/JPY. During the week, experts were discussing how the decline of the SP500 index, with which the pair is correlated, would affect the behavior of the Japanese currency. How will the completion of the next stage of the US-China talks affect it? Will the pair get a support from the increase in the yield of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds? Looking at the USD/JPY chart, one can see how sluggish the market reacted to the change in all these factors. With some dominance of bullish sentiment, the pair kept within the extremely narrow side channel 110.45-110.95, returning to its central zone, the level of 110.66 by the end of the week; - Cryptocurrencies. The market stayed impressed during the past 7 days by the news that JPMorgan, the first of the US banks, created and successfully tested its own digital coin, JPM Coin, which it plans to use in mutual settlements with major financial institutions. And even despite the fact that, JPM Coin is in fact a competitor to the reference cryptocurrency, Bitcoin quotes went up. DataLight analysts concluded that as the price of Bitcoin increased, the number of transactions increased as well, reaching the values of April 2018. However, this positive attitude does not mean a radical reversal of the trend and the beginning of a steady growth in the crypto market. Yes, indeed, its volumes since last Friday first grew by about 10%. But after the BTC reached the level of $4,000, many players on growth decided to take profits, which led to a decrease in capitalization by 2%. Therefore, the scenario of the BTC/USD pair consolidating at the horizon of $3,700 cannot be excluded from consideration. It should be noted that the share of Bitcoin as a “heavyweight” on the market now amounts to more than 58%. As for the top altcoins, since May 2018, their "piece of cake" is continuously decreasing. Thus, the share of Ripple ( XRP/USD) today is 11.52%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) - 9%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - just 1.51%. But it is this “lightness” that allows them to demonstrate greater dynamics. Thus, the amplitude within the weekly fluctuations of the Ripple was 25%, and of Ethereum - 22%, which, of course, is very attractive for traders. As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: - EUR/USD. The upcoming week is filled with both issuing of important macroeconomic data, and equally important speeches by politicians and key figures of the world economy. Thus, the market is waiting for the Head of FED Jerome Powell to speak in the US Congress on Tuesday February 26. And if he makes it clear that the Fed is not going to hurry with the rate hike, this can create quite a lot of pressure on the US currency. However, only 30% of analysts expect that such a “dovish” attitude will lead to the growth of the pair to the Pivot Point of the medium-term channel in the 1.1400 zone and its further advance to the upper boundary of the 1.1500 channel. Most experts (70%) have taken the opposite position, believing that the weakening of the European economy and chaos with Brexit will tilt the balance in favor of the dollar, and the pair will return to the lows of recent months in the 1.1215-1.1240 area; - GBP/USD. The key events that will determine the trend of the coming week will be the speech of the British Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday, February 26, and the vote of the Parliament of this country to review the deal with the EU on Tuesday. If Mrs. May’s proposals are rejected again, she will have a choice: either exit without a deal, or postponement of the Brexit. Judging by the mood of the market, most investors tend to the second option (or just want to believe in it). Whatever it may be, 40% of the experts believe that the pound will hold out at current levels near 1.3000 and 35% even predict his further growth to the height of 1.3200. Only 25% of analysts voted for the fall of the pair to the zone of 1.2770-1.2830. Additional support for the pound may be rendered by a rise in prices for the "black gold", since the pound is directly correlated with oil prices. - USD/JPY. The Japanese currency has frozen in anticipation of further developments. The worsening macroeconomic statistics of the United States, Germany, which has barely avoided a recession, Trump’s trade war with Europe and China, China’s slowest GDP growth over the past three decades — all these factors make investors pessimistic about the prospects for the global economy. It would seem that in such a situation, interest in the yen should grow as a safe haven currency. But instead, their appetites for risky, but more profitable assets are growing. Thus, according to the EPFR data, the net capital inflow to the countries with developing economies through ETF exchange funds has amounted to 16 billion US dollars from the beginning of the year. In such a situation, in full agreement with most indicators and graphical analysis on D1, 70% of experts vote for a further fall of the yen and the rise of the pair to the height of 111.50 and then 100 points higher. An alternative point of view is expressed by 30% of analysts, who believe that the pair should go down to the zone of 109.60-110.00; - Cryptocurrencies. After JPMorgan has launched JPM Coin, the crypto community expects similar steps from Facebook, Amazon and other major global corporations. But this is all in a hazy future. In the meantime, regulators such as the SEC and CFTC must make a lot of steps, including unpopular ones, to bring order to this market. Regarding the trends of the upcoming week, the opinions of experts were as follows. 40% are for the continuation of the Bitcoin growth to the $4,200-4,400 zone, a jerk to the maximum of November 2018 is not excluded. at the height of $4,485. 35% suggest sideways movement of the pair in the $3,900-4,100 channel, while the remaining 25% expect the BTC/USD pair to return to the $3,500-3,800 zone. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin https://nordfx.com/
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