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Key option levels for Wednesday, September 21th

9/21/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(37).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 243 308 ? + 28 870 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1216; 1.1236; 1.1273; 1.1300

Closest support levels 1.1149; 1.1126; 1.1097; 1.1062

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1149, with target points at 1.1126 and 1.1097

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1216 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1236 and 1.1273

 

GBP/USD

 

GBPUSD(37).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 1 262 ? + 1 700 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3043; 1.3072; 1.3091; 1.3114

Closest support levels 1.2960; 1.2929; 1.2909; 1.2885

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2960, with target points at 1.2929 and 1.2909

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3043 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3072 and 1.3091

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(34).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 567 ? + 521 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3219; 1.3243; 1.3266; 1.3298

Closest support levels 1.3146; 1.3113; 1.3068; 1.3016

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3219, with the target points at 1.3243 and 1.3266

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3146 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3113 and 1.3068

 

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EUR/USD: "High Wave" set up bullish correction

9/21.2016

 

2109eurusdh4.png

 

The price has faced a support by the lower “Window”. Also, we’ve got a “Harami” at the local low, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, the 34 and 55 Moving Averages acted as a resistance once again. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern, bears will probably go on.

 

2109eurusdh1.png

 

There’s a bearish price movement, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. We’ve got a “High Wave” at the last low, which has been strongly confirmed. Also, there’s a chance to see another test of the nearest support. If we have a pullback from this line, then bulls will probably try to get a resistance on the Moving Averages.

 

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USD/JPY: "Window" acted as a strong resistance

9/21/2016

 

2109usdjpyH4.png

 

There’s a “Harami” pattern at the local high, but its confirmation hasn’t formed yet. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest “Window” once again. If we see a pullback from it, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we see on the Daily chart, the 21 Moving Average acted as a support, so bears will probably try to reach the closest support line in the short term.

 

2109usdjpyH1.png

 

We’ve got a “High Wave” at the local high, which points to an opportunity to have a new low during the day. Also, there’s a “Two Crows” pattern, which has been strongly confirmed. In this case, it’s likely that the price is going to achieve the nearest support shortly.

 

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How central banks control exchange rates through their monetary policy?

9/21/2016

 

In this article, we decided to shed a little light on the cryptic messages coming from central banks’ officials and explain how central banks control exchange rates through their monetary policy.

 

As we know, a car engine makes an automobile move, pick-up the speed or slow down by regulating the amount of gasoline. The same operational principle can be applied to the work of the central bank. It provides the nation’s economy with money (economy’s fuel) to keep it healthy and growing and takes this fuel away when it’s needed. So, let’s take a peep into the central banks’ hood to understand how this banking engine works.

 

To handle the nation's money supply, central banks have many tools at their disposal.

 

For example, they can modify their interest rates. Benchmark interest rates affect the demand for money by raising or lowering the cost to borrow (well, in essence, they define how money actually cost). When borrowing is cheap (when bank sets low interest rates), firms take on more debt and increase their production; consumers purchase more goods with cheap credit; and savers are not interested in saving their money in banks; they want to invest their savings in stocks or other assets. In the world of low interest rates, currencies feel themselves uncomfortable and start to depreciate. And, on the contrary, when the high interest rates come into play, national currency grows in value.

 

There is another effective method of money supply regulation – open-market operations (CBs buy or sell government bonds). If central bank buys short-term government bonds, it expands money supply and thereby decreases exchange rate of its currency. If central bank acts differently (prefers to sell its bonds), it gets the opposite effect.

 

Central banks can also regulate money supply by mandating the reserves that banks must keep on hand. Higher reserve requirements detract people, businesses from lending and rein in inflation. But the currency remains better off. It may grossly appreciate in value, once central bank decides to take this measure.

 

A certain combination of the aforementioned actions is called monetary policy. There are two types of monetary policy, expansionary (that has been recently taken on board by many prominent central banks including the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan) and contractionary.

 

Expansionary monetary policy increases the money supply in order to lower unemployment, boost private-sector borrowing and consumer spending, and stimulate economic growth. Banks lower their interest rates in order to boost economic growth of the country. 

 

In contrast, contractionary monetary policy slows the rate of growth in the money supply. Contractionary monetary policy is designed to fight inflation. It usually slows economic growth, increases unemployment and depresses borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses.

 

Armed with this information, I do hope that everybody will manage to decipher central banks’ messages.

 

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AUD/CAD reached buy target 1.0000

9/21/2016

 

AUD/CAD reached buy target 1.0000

Next buy target - 1.0100

AUD/CAD recently reached the round resistance level 1.0000 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The price has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions inside the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 – which started previously – when the price reversed up from the support zone lying between the strong support level 0.9800, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from May.

 

If the pair closes today above the parity - AUD/CAD can then rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0100 (which reversed the earlier sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) in August).

 

AUDCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Sep-21_1351_

 

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EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave

9/21/2016

 

EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave

Next sell targets - 1.4600 and 1.4500

EUR/AUD has been falling in the last few trading session inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which started previously – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone located between the prominent resistance level 1.5100, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from the middle of May.

 

EUR/AUD is expected to continue the downward movement in the active impulse waves (iii) and C toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4600 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next major support level 1.4500.

 

EURAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Sep-21_1350_

 

 

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From where blows the wind of the new financial crisis

9/21/2016

 

One bubble had been swelling for years, and then went bang. When will go another? In 2008, the Case-Shiller home price index reported the greatest price drop in its history. The credit crisis resulting from the bursting of the housing bubble in the US was one of the primary causes of the global financial crisis. From which way the wind will blow next time?

 

Several prophetic economists and distinguished investors warn of a stock market crash. One of the most prominent Société Générale analysts – Albert Edwards – predicts a 75% stock market crash to strike in the forthcoming future. He believes that the US is one recession away from deflation. There is a massive debt on the corporate sector ($5,7 trln dollars in the first quarter of this year, an astounding increase by 63% from $3,5 trln in 8 years), which may lead to the chain of bankruptcies.

 

Another noted economist – Andrew Smithers – shares opinion of his colleague and warns investors of possible stock market crash. According to him, U.S stocks are grossly overvalued this year.  Even James Dale Davidson, famous for his predictions of the 1999 and 2007 collapses, encourages investors to sell their stocks before it’s too late.

 

Meanwhile, it seems that investors don’t worry too much about aforementioned predictions from the noted doomsayers. S&P 500 futures have already risen by 0,48% after the Bank of Japan made its announcement. The next trigger for a sell-off or rebound may appear today, once we hear the Fed’s decision on the interest rates.

 

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EUR/GBP & ECB's Draghi speech: More Euro strengthening across the board?

9//22/2016

 

Following the disappointments brought by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve during Wednesday, markets now would be watching for the ECB's president Mario Draghi today at 13:00 GMT, where it's expected to hold a speech that can bring some moves to the FX space, especially in the EUR pairs. However, major pairs were affected by the uncertainty's volatility around “Central Banks' storm” and it's likely that the moves for the rest of the week will be limited.

 

The technical picture for EUR/GBP at H4 chart is bullish, as it remains following a bullish trend line from the September 6th lows and we can see a resistance located at the 0.8623 level. If Draghi brings some hawkish comments, that is highly unlikely, then it could break higher towards the 0.8700 psychological level. In the neutral stance's scenario, the pair can do a pullback to the support level of 0.8543.

 

EURGBPH4.png

 

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GBP/USD: bulls launched the counter attack

9/22/2016

 

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the "bears" managed to fulfill the target at the 1.2965 level which we had defined earlier. Afterwards, there was a reversal. At the present time, there is a final stage of the 5-0 pattern formation.The move towards 38.2% (1.3135), 50% (1.3195) and 61.8% (1.3256) level of the last downward wave can be used for opening short positions.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_22_08_25_09.png

 

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, quotes are moving towards the upper boundary of the descending trading channel. If "bulls" fail to overcome the diagonal resistance near the 1.3135 mark, or if there is an achievement of the 88.6% target in the "Shark"pattern, it will be the signal for the sales.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_22_08_25_27.png

 

Recommendations:

 

SELL 1,3135 SL 1,3290 TP 1,291

 

SELL 1,3195 SL 1,325 TP1 1,3065 TP2 1,291

 

SELL 1,3265 SL 1,332 TP1 1,3135 TP2 1,3065. 

 

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EUR/USD: will a big player stop the euro?

9/22/2016

 

On the EUR/USD daily chart, "bears" failed to break support at the 1,113 level. It helped "bulls" to recover from their losses and lance countering. However, there is a high probability that a large seller will show his strength at the 1,1209-1,127 level and won't allow bulls to move further to the north.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_22_08_19_47.png

 

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the quotes returned to the area of the previous accumulation of short positions. Rebound from the lower or upper boundaries will be a signal for the opening of the short possitions. Near the upper boundary, there is a 88.6% target in the pattern "Shark," which reinforces the value of the resistance.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_22_08_20_02.png

 

Recommendations:

 

SELL 1,1209 SL 1,1265 TP 1,104

 

SELL 1,127 SL 1,1325 TP1 1,113 TP2 1,104

 

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EUR/USD: the Bulls are in courage again

9/22/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1150, 1.1180; resistance – 1.1210/30

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.1180; SL — 1.1160; TP1 — 1.1230; TP2 – 1.1270.

 

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the prices are over Kijun-sen.

 

01-eurusdh4(39).png

 

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GBP/USD: the correction may be deeper

9/22/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.3020; resistance – 1.3100, 1.3190.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.3020; SL — 1.3000; TP1 — 1.3100; TP2 — 1.3190.

 

Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud but the oversold market and a strong support on 1.2950; the prices are in the channel of Tenkan-Kijun.

 

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AUD/USD: looking for 0.7670

9/22/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7620, 0.7590; resistance – 0.7670.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 0.7670; SL — 0.7690; TP1 — 0.7590; TP2 — 0.7550.

 

Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; bearish Ichimoku Cloud; overbought market.

 

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EUR/USD: "Flag" points to possible new high

9/22/2016

 

22-9-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

There’s a “Double Bottom” pattern, which led to the current upward price movement. Therefore, bulls are likely going to get a resistance at 1.1228 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll an opportunity to have a downward correction in the direction of a support at 1.1181.

 

22-9-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

We’ve got another “Double Bottom” on the one-hour chart, which has been confirmed by the last “Flag” pattern. So, the price is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1225 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from here, bears will probably try to get a support on the 34 Moving Average.

 

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GBP/USD: "Pennant" pushed market higher

9/22/2016

 

22-9-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The price faced a support at 1.2934, which led to form a “Triple Bottom” pattern, so the price is rising. It’s likely that bulls are going to move on, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.3089 – 1.3115 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be a chance to have a decline towards a support at 1.3022.

 

22-9-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a “Pennant” pattern, so the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 89 Moving Average during the day. At the same time, if a pullback from this line be on the table, then bears will probably try to set up a downward correction.

 

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Morning briefing: what we have been through and what to expect from this day

9/22/2016

 

FOMC, RBA and RBNZ recap

 

Now, when tensions defused and the dust settled, we can take a deep breath. In the past 24 hours we heard Yellen, Lowe, Wheeler speaking of the health of their national economies and economic projections. Let’s review their speeches and then turn to the occurrences of this day.

 

The Fed left interest rates unchanged, but there is gleam of hope, that the board will be hawkish at the next meeting (November 2nd). Well, we won’t do any projections in this respect; likelihood of this occurring will be entirely dependent upon further economic data going forward. It seems that for the FOMC perfectionists there's always something to strive for. Even now, when the US labor market continues to strengthen, economic growth has picked up from its baby steps seen in the first half of this year, and inflation running 2%, they managed to find a room for improvements. Who knows, what happens in November, the cautious Fed might not agree for a rate hike waiting for the results of another major event – the US Presidential elections.

 

RBNZ also decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged, echoing its forethoughtful colleagues. But there was a slight dovish lean in the statement of the RBNZ’s Governor. The further easing will be required, according to Wheeler, to give an impulse to the NZ’s economic growth, and high NZD hinders this process.

 

RBA Governor Lowe said nothing new to surprise or scare the market. The Bank, struggling to survive in the world of low interest rates, is not going to rise in the nearest future, as low wage inflation and weak commodity prices exhibit additional pressure on the economy.

 

How this affected the currency pairs:

 

USD/JPY tested a little lower, but didn't manage to reach 100, then it bounced back to just under 100.50.

 

NZD/USD experienced small changes with little news and no developments to impact. It dropped from the 0,73480 high today to the 0,7330 level.

 

EUR/USD currency pair has risen slightly today to the 1,122 level, but still didn’t come through big changes since yesterday.

 

Aussie grew in value a little bit and almost reached the 0,765 mark on the AUD/USD chart.

 

And what this day will bring us later?

 

After all these eloquent speeches it’s Draghi's turn to come into play. The ECB President is speaking later today at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference. Keep glued to the monitors, since there is often a risk of high volatility during his speeches. And then, Mark Carney (BOE Governor) will act Mario Draghi off the screen. Traders will scrutinize his public speech looking for some clues regarding future monetary policy.

 

Another important news will come from the USA. We expect US unemployment claims later this day.  The reading suggests the employment market is strengthening. The forecast for the number of claims is 261,000. The data is an important signal of overall economic health because it partially reflects consumer spending. 

 

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EUR/USD: "Triangle" going to move on

9/22/2016

 

Image20160922101848001.png

 

There’s a possible “Triangle”, which is a part of a “Double Three” pattern. Therefore, it’s likely that bulls are going to test the upper side if this “Triangle” soon. If a pullback happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new bearish trend.

 

Image20160922101848002.png

 

We’ve got a bullish impulse, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. There’s a possible extension in wave (iii) of [a]. In this case, bulls are likely going to deliver a couple of new highs during the day. If we see a pullback from +1/8 MM Level, bears will probably try to deliver wave of E. 

 

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Key option levels for Thursday, September 22th

9/22/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(38).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 28 195 ? + 1 967 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1256; 1.1275; 1.1300; 1.1332

Closest support levels 1.1205; 1.1185; 1.1168; 1.1143

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1256, with target points at 1.1275 and 1.1300

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1205 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.1185 and 1.1168

 

 

GBP/USD

 

GBPUSD(38).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 3 357? + 264 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3092; 1.3113; 1.3138; 1.3168

Closest support levels 1.3020; 1.3000; 1.2982; 1.2952

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.3092, with target points at 1.3113 and 1.3138

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3020 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3000 and 1.2982

 

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPY(36).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 2 237 ? + 1 321 ?

Closest resistance levels 100.83; 101.03; 101.29; 101.58

Closest support levels 100.15; 99.89; 99.60; 99.39

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 100.83, with target points at 101.03 and 101.29

Alternative scenario Moving below 100.15 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 99.89 and 99.60

 

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NZD/CAD reversed from long-term resistance level 0.9640

9/22/2016

 

NZD/CAD reversed from long-term resistance level 0.9640

Next sell target - 0.9500

NZD/CAD continues to fall – following the earlier sharp downward reversal from the major long-term resistance level 0.9640 (which has been reversing this currency pair from the start of 2014, as can be seen from the weekly NZD/CAD chart below). If the pair closes this week near the current levels – it will then form the strong weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star (strong bearish signal).

 

Given the overbought reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator - NZD/CAD can be expected to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9500. Powerful resistance remains at 0.9640.

 


 

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GBP/NZD reversed from pivotal support level 1.7750

9/22/2016

 

GBP/NZD reversed from pivotal support level 1.7750

Next buy target - 1.8270

GBP/NZD recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.7750 (low of the previous impulse waves ? and (1)), which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The support zone near the support level 1.7750 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from the 1.7750 stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3.

 

Given the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator and the strength of the support level 1.7750 - GBP/NZD is expected to correct up further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.8270 (which reversed earlier waves (2) and 2).

 

GBPNZD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Sep-22_1208_

 

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USD/CAD ahead Core Retail Sales: Dynamic support in focus

9/23/2016

 

Today at 12:30 GMT will be published the Canadian's core retail sales on a monthly basis (July) and market's analysts are expecting an increase from -0.8% to 0.5%. This is a key macro indicator to measure consumer confidence in Canada and we should remind that the retail sales came lower during June's release, which was well below the forecasts. Another factor to have in mind is the current OPEC discussions in Argelia that are driving currently the Oil and CAD pairs are closely watching for those moves.

 

The technical picture at H4 chart for USD/CAD is strongly bearish, helped by the recent US dollar weakness lived after FOMC's meeting. However, the Loonie is finding support at the 1.3005 level, where it converges with the 200 SMA, providing some kind of dynamic support across the board. If data comes above the expectations, then the pair may resume the bearish bias and it could test the support level of 1.2951, while the other scenario can boost the USD/CAD pair to test the resistance level of 1.3135.

 

USDCADH4(11).png

 

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Gold: bears will struggle to death

9/23/2016

 

On the daily chart of gold, we can observe the consolidation within the range of $1305-1365 in the "Splash and shelf" pattern. As soon as the quotes surpass the upper and lower boundaries of the defined range, we will be able to determine the further direction of their movement. If  "bulls"  fail to hold their positions above $1334, it will warn us of their weakness.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_23_08_19_25.png

 

On the hourly chart of gold, the target on the inverted "Crab" pattern has been reached. A break of resistance at $1348 (88.6% Fibonacci of the last downward wave) will increase the risks of restoring the long-term uptrend. And, on the contrary, a drop in prices below the $1324 support will contribute to the fall of quotations in the direction of the lower boundary of the consolidation within the range of $1305-1365.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_23_08_19_39.png

 

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USD/CAD: bulls stayed too long

9/23/2016

 

On the USD/CAD daily chart, 'bears" managed to reach the level of 1,305. If they fail to test the support at 1.2977, it will warn us of their weakness. "Bulls" will be ready to start the counter attack, as soon as they manage to overcome the 1.31 level.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_23_08_15_07(2).png

 

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, formation of the 1-2-3 reversal model tells us that quotes will rise. The target of the "Crab" pattern is at 1,314-1,315.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_23_08_15_22(2).png

 

Recommendations: BUY 1,309 SL 1,3035 TP1 1,315 TP2 1,33. 

 

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GBP/USD: going to the Cloud

9/23/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.3020/30; resistance – 1.3100, 1.3190.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.3020/30; SL — 1.3000; TP1 — 1.3100; TP2 — 1.3190.

 

Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud but the rising SSA; the prices are on the support of Tenkan-Kijun.

 

02-gbpusdh4(23).png

 

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AUD/USD: heavy zone on 0.7670

9/23/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7620, 0.7600; resistance – 0.7670.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7620; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7670; TP2 — 0.7700.

 

Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and a rising Senkou Span A; but still an overbought market.

 

03-audusdh4(26).png

 

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