internationallove Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-02-28) Weekly USD/JPY The pair USD/JPY doesn’t want to rebound. After the bulls didn’t manage to keep the lead the week before last and, consequently, the prices failed above the Standard line (4), the past week turned out to be much more negative. As a result, the rate fell below Tenkan-sen (3). Senkou Span A (1) continued widening down the Cloud’s range increasing the bearish sentiment at the market. It’s clear that the local and, possibly, even historic minimums will be breached in the next few weeks. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY The daily outlook brings nothing optimistic for the bulls as well. The Ichimoku Cloud here switched downwards as the prices were falling during the entire week. The rate didn’t get support from the horizontal Kijun (4) and Senkou Span B. Taking into account this fact, it’s possible to conclude that the bears are very strong and plan to continue the downtrend. In addition, Chinkou Span broke down the price chart that confirms the market’s bearish sentiment. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (3, 4), however, didn’t manage to form the “dead cross”. So, in the near time the market may return to the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud and go further down. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6368 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-02-28) Weekly USD/CHF The bearish sentiment that spread over the market last week let the rate renew historic minimums. By the end of the week USD/CHF fell to 0.9230, but then the bulls regained 50 points. As a result of this slump, all lines of the Indicator kept declining (1, 2, 3 and 4). Even the Senkou Span В (2) that was trading sideways since the beginning of the year went down. So, the downtrend for the greenback is very likely to continue. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart the Ichimoku indicator began pointing at the total reversal of the trend and the end of the middle term sideways trade. That means that Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen formed the “dead cross” (2) and headed down. In addition, the Preceding lines (1) are also directed downwards and have almost equal values. All mentioned means that the market’s sentiment is very negative and that the downtrend may resume after a small consolidation at the current levels. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6369 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 "Commerzbank: USD/CHF under bearish pressure"(2011-02-28) Swiss National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand claimed yesterday in an interview to the newspaper Der Sonntag that in his view Swiss economic growth may positively surprise the market. The policymaker added that he doesn’t think that rising commodity prices will affect price stability in the short term. According to Hildebrand, there’s nothing new in the moves of the currency market as investors as usual increase demand for franc due to high uncertainty. It’s important how long this is going to last, said the SNB head. Analysts at Commerzbank believe such comments from Switzerland’s central bank mean that the country’s monetary authorities seem to be comfortable with the current situation. As the Hildebrand expects to see strong economic growth this means that the impact of franc’s appreciation on the real economy is limited. Consequently, the SNB may not regard franc as the most important factor formulating its further monetary policy, note the specialists. From the technical point of view, the pair USD/CHF finds itself near the record minimum at 0.9233 hit on February 24. The greenback is under bearish pressure. The only remaining target is 0.9120 and, possibly, the psychological support at 0.9000, claims Commerzbank. Chart. H4 USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6377 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-02-28) Technical analysts at Commerzbank say that the European currency opened the week in a bullish mood trading versus the greenback. In their view, the pair EUR/USD is heading up to the key resistance at February maximum of 1.3862 and further towards the 1.3950/1.4000 area representing 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from November maximums and the 200-day MA. The specialists expect that when euro reaches the target zone, it will fail. On the downside, the single currency will find support in the near term at 1.3705/45 and then at 2-month support line at 1.3635/11. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6380 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 "Emerging markets' currencies will keep outperforming"(2011-02-28) Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the emerging markets’ currencies will keep outperforming the currencies of the developed nations. It will happen as food prices have soared to the record maximums, while oil is trading high, at $100 a barrel. According to Barclays Capital, in emerging economies inflation is accelerating at a 6% rate, while in the developed nations this figure is equal only to 2%. As a result, inflationary pressure in the developing countries increases and their authorities have to raise interest rates – in February rates were lifted up in Peru, China, Colombia, Indonesia and Russia. So, Morgan Stanley favors Russian ruble, Mexican peso and Malaysian ringgit. Specialists at Nomura Holdings say that the quickest way to stem inflation is to strengthen national currency. If the country’s officials have to make a choice facing such issues as weak economic growth and high inflation, they will have to deal firstly with the latter and here comes monetary tightening. Strategists at Citigroup believe that the first to hike will be developing countries most reliant on imported oil – fuel and mining products account for about 36% of South Korea’s imports, 25% in China, 27% for Turkey and 24% for Indonesia. These nations can’t afford to keep pursuing loose monetary policy and exchange-rate depreciation. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6382 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 "Mizuho: USD/JPY will drop to 80.21"(2011-02-28) The greenback went down versus Japanese yen from maximum of the middle of February at 83.95 to the 3-week minimums in the 81.60 area. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that all technical indicators signal that the pair USD/JPY will keep declining. Such situation continues since July. In their view, US currency will inevitably go down to retest multi-year minimum at 80.21. The specialists note that US dollar is trading at the lower part of a triangle and is likely to breach the pattern. According to Mizuho, the next question is how the market will react at the all time low of 79.75 hit in 1995. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6384 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 "China: annual GDP growth target for the next 5 years is at 7%"(2011-02-28) Chinese premier Wen Jiabao announced that the economic-growth targets for the next 5 years are lower than the previous ones. China’s annual economic expansion target is set at 7% for the period from 2011 to 2015. From 2006 through 2010 the target was at 7.5%, with actual growth surpassing that each year and equal on average to 11.1%. According to Wen, the main reason why China will target slower economic growth is its efforts to improve the quality of the growth and reduce inflationary pressures. Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada note that it’s necessary to regard the new target as a signal of Beijing’s intentions over the medium term. In their view, during the past several years Chinese officials have underlined the need to move China away from a reliance on low-value-added and heavy-polluting export industries and to promote greater domestic consumption. Wen also said that stronger yuan is in the interest of the country’s economy and people. However, yuan’s appreciation must be gradual because sharp gains of the currency would provoke bankruptcy of a number of Chinese enterprises. RBC economists note that although the comments on the currency revaluation were just a reiteration of what has been said before about gradual strengthening, Wen also made it clear that he sees the currency moving in only one direction. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6386 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 "UBS: EUR/CHF will rise to 1.3500 in 3 months"(2011-02-28) Analysts at UBS recommend buying the single currency versus Swiss franc at 1.2800 with 3-month target at 1.3500. The specialists believe that the interest-rate gap between Switzerland and the EU may widen as the Swiss National Bank’s official keep giving dovish comments while the European Central Bank’s authorities seem to be rather hawkish so far. Franc was boosted by risk aversion over the past few days. According to UBS, however, unless the political tensions spread to some of the larger countries in the Middle East, market may calm down and demand for Swiss currency will decrease. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6390 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 "US dollar under pressure because of rising oil prices"(2011-02-28) US dollar was under pressure because of the rising oil prices as investors worried that US economy will be affected more than others taking into account the fact that it strongly depends on consumer spending. According to Deutsche Bank, a $10 increase in oil reduces US growth over two years by 0.5 percentage point. Last week crude oil reached $112.14 a barrel in London, the highest level since August 2008. Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ say that rising oil prices help to widen the perceived policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks. While the ECB regards rising crude as an upside risk to inflation, the Fed's view is that it will be negative for the economic growth. As a result, the European currency is likely to outperform the greenback in the near term. Strategists at UBS believe that the American currency will stay weak for now and advise investors buying euro, pound and Swedish krona. The pair EUR/USD rose to 3-week maximum in the 1.3840 area. In order to get more bullish momentum euro has to overcome 2011 maximum at 1.3862. The major events this week are the congressional testimony by Fed's Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday and the ECB meeting on Thursday. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6392 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 "Loonie reached the maximum since 2007"(2011-03-01) Canadian dollar tested the 0.9710 level versus its US counterpart, the strongest since November 19, 2007. Loonie’s rate was pushed up after the country’s GDP gained in the fourth quarter 3.3% from the previous year’s level, while the economists were looking forward to an annual increase only by 3%. Canada’s exports, which accounted in 2009 for 32% of its economy, added 4% in the last quarter of 2010 showing the biggest quarter advance since the second quarter of 2004. Crude oil shipments rose by 30% to a record level. In February Canadian currency managed to climb by 3% due to the surge of the crude oil price. The Bank of Canada will announce today its interest rate decision. Analysts at Bank of Nova Scotia’s Scotia Capital believe that the pressure on the policymakers is rising and they will have to hike sooner or later. Last year the Bank of Canada has already raised the rates for 3 times being the first central bank among those of the Group of Seven nations to tighten monetary policy. Strategists at Citigroup expect that Canada’s monetary authorities will use today’s meeting in order to prepare for the rate hike in April. As for the Bank of Canada itself, on January 18 it claimed that it will be careful increasing the borrowing costs as there are still the risks to the country’s economic recovery from the euro zone’s debt crisis. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6396 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 "Analysts on Switzerland’s GDP"(2011-03-01) The greenback went down versus Japanese yen from maximum of the middle of February at 83.95 to the 3-week minimums in the 81.60 area. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that all technical indicators signal that the pair USD/JPY will keep declining. Such situation continues since July. In their view, US currency will inevitably go down to retest multi-year minimum at 80.21. The specialists note that US dollar is trading at the lower part of a triangle and is likely to breach the pattern. According to Mizuho, the next question is how the market will react at the all time low of 79.75 hit in 1995. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6384 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 "Mizuho: EUR/USD may rise to 1.4000"(2011-03-01) Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the single currency has jumped from yesterday’s minimum at 1.3710 and reached resistance at 1.3860. In their view, the possibility of the day’s close above 1.3900 has so far increased. This, in its turn, will trigger short covering. The same effect will be from the weekly close above 1.3900. The next target of the pair EUR/USD is at 1.4000. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6400 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 "UBS: AUD/USD forecast’s increased"(2011-03-01) Australian dollar dipped to 1.0148 versus its US counterpart after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the benchmark interest rate at 4.75%, so the players who were looking forward to more hawkish RBA statement got disappointed. However, the pair AUD/USD has already gone up to 1.0180 to compensate today’s losses. Analysts at UBS note that the demand for Aussie remains high. The specialists lifted up their month forecast for Australia’s currency from 0.9700 to 1.0000. The 3-month forecast was raised from 0.9300 to 0.9800. According to the strategists, the market will be now waiting for the rate’s hike next month. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6402 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 "Barclays Capital: USD/CAD will fall to 0.9500"(2011-03-01) Analysts at Barclays Capital expect the pair USD/CAD to fall down to 0.9500 in the next few months as it broke below the trend line support from the Augusts maximum in the 1.0670 zone. According to the specialists, the greenback may bounce from the 0.9660/0.9710 area, but the recovery will be short-lived and the bulls will give up. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6405 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2011-03-01) British pound recovered from Friday’s minimum versus the greenback at 1.6070 getting above 1.6300 and reaching 1-year maximum at 1.6330. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that is the pair the pair GBP/USD manages to hold above 1.6300, it will head to the 1.6400/45 area limited by the double Fibonacci retracement and the downtrend from 2007 to 2011. The topside of this area will provide enough resistance to make sterling fail, says the bank. If 1.6300 keeps constraining GBP/USD advance, the rate may drop to 1.6100. According to Commerzbank, pound will remain under bullish pressure as long as it trades above support at 1.5963. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6407 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 "CIBC: USD/JPY will rise to 89.00 by the year-end"(2011-03-01) Analysts at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce expect that US dollar will begin strengthening versus Japanese yen from the middle of the year. In their view, by then US economic outlook improves and the Federal Reserve will start regarding the possibility of tightening its monetary policy. According to CIBC, the pair USD/JPY will climb to 87.00 area in the second quarter, then rise to 88.00 in the third quarter and end 2011 at 89.00. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6409 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 "Societe Generale: EBC may not hike until 2012"(2011-03-01) Economists at Societe Generale think that the more hawkish remarks we’ve been hearing from the central banks may actually be wrong-footed. The high inflation is being driven by the supply concerns in the oil market that means that it’s very negative for the global economy in terms of growth. The specialists believe that this is not something the central banks should be responding to by hiking interest rates. The concern is on the second round effects that would come but that will require a very long period of higher oil prices. And this is where the ECB expresses its second concern – the demand side that is driving commodities from the stronger growth in emerging markets. However, the core inflation in Europe shows that there’s really no indication of second-round effects coming through, so it’s too early to call for the ECB rate hikes from the current inflation picture. According to Societe Generale, the ECB could wait until 2012. There’s the second dimension about which the central banks don’t like to talk much but which is very important – this is the financial stability and the sovereign debt crisis. It could be much harder for the ECB to hike rates than the market’s currently pricing, as the central bank has to take into account not only the rising oil prices, but also the threats to the region’s financial stability. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6410 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 "Bernanke: inflation risk in US remains low"(2011-03-02) Yesterday’s speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke allows suggesting that the Fed won’t hurry to raise interest rates after the $600 billion quantitative easing program is completed by the end of June. In his view, inflation risk isn’t high, while the situation on the labor market is still difficult. Bernanke believes that the surge in commodity prices won’t generate a lasting rise in inflation. For the economic recovery to be sustained, the Fed’s benchmark rate will has to stay low for an “extended period”. Bernanke pledged to act if higher commodity prices persist, spurring inflation and increasing inflation expectations, though currently the head of US central bank sees no necessity for such actions. The Fed’s Chairman will continue his monetary policy testimony today. Bernanke will begin speaking in front of the House Financial Services Committee in Washington at 3 p.m. GMT. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6416 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 "Bof T-Mitsubishi: US dollar will strengthen versus euro by the year-end"(2011-03-02) Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ claim that the greenback may rise to the levels at which it traded versus the European currency in September. Such forecast is based on the reviving of US economy and possibly waning expectations of the rate hikes by the developed nations’ central banks. The specialists expect US dollar to climb to $1.27 per euro and 92 yen in a year. The dollar estimates were reduced from the previous prediction of $1.20 per euro made before a surge in oil prices in February led US currency lose 0.8% versus its European counterpart. US economic growth is going to be strong surpassing economists’ expectations. The data so far seems to be quite encouraging – the country’s manufacturing grew in February at the fastest pace in almost 7 years. ISM factory index rose from 60.8 in January to the maximal level since May 2004 at 61.4. So, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, such solid performance of American economy is going to drive US dollar up. The bank also underlines that the markets are pricing in too much in terms of the ECB rate hikes in the next 12 months and most likely will get disappointed that will be a negative factor for the single currency. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi projects that the pair EUR/USD will rise to $1.40 in 3 months due to the increase in oil prices. Japanese yen will decline to 85 per dollar during this period. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6421 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 "Mizuho: EUR/USD will rise in March at least to 1.4000"(2011-03-02) The single currency advanced from minimums in the 1.3425 area hit in the middle of February and met resistance at 2011 maximum at 1.3860. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that the pair EUR/USD will finally manage to break above this level. In their view, in March euro will climb at least to 1.4000 and possibly to November’s maximum at 1.4281. The specialists underline that momentum for the pair has become bullish. Bullish pressure will decline if EUR/USD falls below 1.3300. In such case this forecast will have to be revised. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6424 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 "Commerzbank: short-term outlook for EUR/USD"(2011-03-02) The European currency didn’t manage to overcome resistance at 1.3860 and went down to 1.3740. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that as long as the pair EUR/USD is trading above support at 1.3650, it’s under the bullish pressure. The bank sets the target for euro’s growth at 1.3960/1.4000 where there is the 78.6% retracement of the decline from November maximum and the 200-week MA. On the other hand, if euro breaks below support at 1.3650, it will be poised to fall to the 55-day MA at 1.3450. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6427 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 "Traders expect RBNZ to cut benchmark rate"(2011-03-02) New Zealand’s dollar fell today to this year’s minimum versus its US counterpart as the country’s Prime Minister John Key claimed that the potential reduction of the 3% benchmark interest rate will help the economy recover after earthquake in Christchurch that occurred on February 22. According to Key, the two quakes from which New Zealand suffered during the past half of the year caused NZ$20 billion ($14.8 billion) of damage. Credit Suisse Group AG index based on swaps shows that traders are sure that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut the rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 10. Some investors are even looking forward to 50-basis point reduction. Although the government is separate from the central bank, such statements made by the Prime Minister certainly affect the national currency. The market is currently trying to find out where the bottom is going to be. Support is found at 0.7400, while the resistance lies at 0.7439. Chart. H4 NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6429 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 "Euro’s under pressure versus franc and yen"(2011-03-02) Analysts at Zuercher Kantonalbank note that after falling through the key support at 1.2890 the pair EUR/CHF is trapped between 1.27 and 1.30. The specialists warn that if euro falls below 1.2685, it will be poised down to 1.2550. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Analysts at Societe Generale note that as the pair EUR/JPY didn’t manage to hold above resistance in the 113.40 area, it will go through the downward consolidation that began at 114.30. The bank believes that euro may drop to Monday's minimum at 111.95, and, possibly, to the support at 111.60. Chart. H4 EUR/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6431 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 "Mizuho: USD/CHF will fall to 0.8300"(2011-03-02) Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that 8-month downtrend for the pair USD/CHF that has recently pushed the greenback to the record minimum at 0.9235 isn’t over yet. The specialists believe that US dollar will fall versus Swiss franc to 0.9100 next month, lowering to 0.8500 in 6 months and hitting the 0.8300 level in a year. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6433 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 "RBC: King won’t manage to prevent the rate hike"(2011-03-02) Analysts at RBC Capital Markets say that the fact that British pound reached yesterday 13-month maximum versus the greenback means that investors believe that the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King won’t be able to keep interest rates from rising. The head of the Britain’s central bank is cautious about raising interest rates as it may hamper already weak country’s economic growth – in the fourth quarter of 2010 UK GDP contracted by 0.6%. However, the number of BoE Monetary policy Committee members in favor of the rate hike increases. According to the minutes of the MPC meeting that took place on February 10, BoE Chief Economist Spencer Dale joined policy makers Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale in voting for an interest-rate hike from the current 0.5% level as British inflation pace accelerated in January to 4%, 2 times higher than the target level. RBC specialists underline that since 2003 King has been outvoted already twice. As sterling’s strengthening the market becomes more convinced that King will either be offside again or capitulate. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6435 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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