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"Commerzbank: comments on NZD/USD"(2011-03-02)

 

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During the Asian session today New Zealand’s dollar extended its previous decline from 0.7555 slumping below 0.7400.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair NZD/USD will stabilize right above 0.7376/43. According to the specialists, kiwi will bottom in the area of December minimum at 0.7343 and then struggle next week to crawl up to 0.7555.

 

If New Zealand’s currency falls below 0.7343, it may decline to June maximum at 0.7161 and to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2010 advance at 0.7102.

 

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Chart. H4 NZD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

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"Bank of America increased forecasts for EUR/USD"(2011-03-03)

 

 

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Analysts at Bank of America Corp. (BAC) increased their first-quarter and long-term forecasts for the single currency versus US dollar. The specialists explained changes in their projections by rising euro and concerns about America’s fiscal state.

 

BAC raised the first-quarter euro forecast from $1.23 to $1.30 due to the higher European short-term interest rates and the current surge in oil prices. By the end of 2011 the pair EUR/USD is now expected to trade at $1.35 up from the previous estimate of from $1.30. Euro’s forecast was also lifted up from $1.35 to $1.40 by December 2012. The second-quarter estimate was left unchanged at $1.20 as the market’s attention will once again focus on the euro zone’s debt problems during this period. In the longer term dollar will be weakened by the fiscal crisis in the US.

 

The pair EUR/USD renewed yesterday 2011 maximum reaching 1.3889.

 

This year the European currency gained 3.6% on the expectations of ECB rate hike. The ECB rate’s decision will be announced today at 12:45pm. The European Central Bank holds the rate at 1% since May 2009.

 

The BCA analysts believe that the Fed will keep its benchmark at 0-0.25% as it stays since December 2008, when it meets on March 15.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

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"Market’s waiting for ECB meeting"(2011-03-03)

 

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The ECB rate decision is the major event investors are waiting for today.

 

It’s necessary to note that he European Central bank will be the first among the world’s five biggest central banks to announce a policy decision since crude oil surged overcame last week the $100 a barrel threshold.

 

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet may tell how euro zone monetary authorities plan to deal with rising oil prices that strengthen inflationary pressure affecting at the same time the region’s economic growth. In February European inflation accelerated to 2.4% on the annual basis.

 

The most common expectations are that the ECB will leave rate at 1%, though the tone of the central bank will be much more hawkish suggesting rate hike later this year.

 

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Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

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"UBS: euro will face new challenges in March"(2011-03-03)

 

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Strategists at UBS expect the ECB to raise its inflation forecast from 1.7% to 2% and give hawkish comments.

 

According to the specialists, short-term investors will buy euro versus Swiss franc driving the pair EUR/CHF up towards 1.35. Such trade may last, however, no more than 2 weeks as later in March the ECB will have to make difficult decisions about how to deal with the indebted peripheral countries. As a result, the single currency will be hit by the reemerging event risks.

 

Analysts at BNY Mellon believe that the ECB will lift up interest rates in July and will certainly support euro. Never the less, the specialists also note that before that the market will inevitably focus on Europe’s debt woes. In their view, it’s necessary to impose more strict fiscal criteria on the euro zone countries, though there’s high uncertainty about what will actually happen by the end of March.

 

One should also take into account the fact that US dollar’s weakness also contributes to euro’s strength. So, if the greenback starts gaining at the time when investors are worried about the European debt, the outlook for the euro could quickly change.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/CHF

 

 

 

 

 

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"Commerzbank: EUR/USD forecast"(2011-03-03)

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Today’s outlook from Commerzbank is much like what the economists said yesterday.

 

Yesterday the European currency jumped from 1.3740 and renewed 2011 maximums in the 1.3890 area.

 

Technical analyst at Commerzbank note that the pair EUR/USD broke above resistance at 1.3860 and is going up to the 1.3960/1.4000 area where there’s the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from November maximums and the 200-day MA. The specialists expect euro to fail at these levels.

 

On the other hand, if euro breaks below support at 1.3675, it will be poised to fall to the 55-day MA at 1.3464/55.

 

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Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

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"BNY Mellon: US dollar needs global crisis to strengthen"(2011-03-03)

 

 

 

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Analysts at Scotiabank note that although the market’s risk aversion’s increasing and they turn to safer currencies such as yen and franc, the stage where investors are seeking the real safe havens hasn’t been reached yet. Without a serious crisis and with monetary policy in investors' sights they won’t turn to US currency.

 

The strategists are bearish on the greenback. In their view, during the next few months US dollar will trade sideways, but by the end of the year it will go down.

 

Strategists at BNY Mellon share the same views. The specialists note that though dollar's probably slightly oversold now, the geopolitical events in North Africa and the Middle East remain relatively contained. Though investors avoid assets in the Middle East and South Africa, they keep favoring higher-yielding overseas assets in Asia and Latin America. The bank reminds that investors’ demand for US dollar surged in 2008 after Lehman Brothers collapse, so in order to strengthen American currency needs a “good old-fashioned global crisis”.

 

The VIX, a widely used measure of investor expectations of volatility, now stands at 21-23. That's up from 16 or 17 before the Middle East turmoil began, but still below the 45-50 level reached last summer, when investors were worried about a European sovereign debt crisis.

 

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График. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

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"Jyske Bank: GBP/USD will drop to 1.4700 in 3 months"(2011-03-03)

 

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Analysts at Jyske Bank, the third largest Danish bank in terms of market share, believe that the levels at which British pound is currently trading versus its US counterpart will be the highest in 2011. The specialists believe that the pair GBP/USD is going to cap its gains and survive a sharp decline during the next 3 months slumping to the year’s minimums at 1.4700.

 

According to the bank, the decision to tighten monetary policy will be very hard to make for the Bank of England. The strategists claim that the central bank won’t announce a hike of 25 basis points until the end of 2011. If this assumption is right, then the markets will be very disappointed.

 

So, Jyske Bank expects pound to remain around 1.4800 over the next 3 months. After the BoE increases rate to 0.75%, GBPUSD will climb to 1.6500.

 

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Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

 

 

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"Morgan Stanley: yen will fall versus US dollar and euro"(2011-03-03)

 

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Analysts at Morgan Stanley claim that Japanese yen may fall as the Bank of Japan may loosen its monetary policy even more making investors more concerned about the country’s fiscal state. If it happens, yen will again be used as a funding currency for carry trades and investors will sell it for higher yielding assets, for example, the ones in Australia and New Zealand.

 

According to Morgan Stanley, yen will fall to 93 per dollar and to 115 per euro by the end of 2011.

 

The BOJ has pledged to hold its benchmark interest rate at 0-0.1% until it can expect stable price gains, which board members see at about 1%. Japanese consumer prices excluding fresh food fell for a 23rd straight month in January, falling 0.2% from 2010 level.

 

On February 22 Moody’s Investors Service reduced Japan’s debt rating outlook noting that political gridlock will constrain the country’s efforts to tackle debt that is poised to exceed twice the size of GDP.

 

On March 1 Japan’s lower house of parliament approved Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s record 92.4 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion) budget. Never the less, Kan didn’t manage to persuade opposition lawmakers to authorize 44.3 trillion yen in government bonds to help fund the budget.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

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"BNP Paribas: EUR/USD may rise to 13-month high"(2011-03-04)

 

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Technical analysts at BNP Paribas believe that the single currency may rise to the 13-month maximum versus US dollar if it manages to overcome resistance at the $1.40 level representing 80% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $1.4282 on November 4 to $1.2867 on January 10.

 

The specialists claim that after getting above $1.40 the pair EUR/USD may go up until full retracement rising to $1.43 and to $1.4450.

 

According to BNP Paribas, above $1.43 there is a downtrend line from the euro’s record maximum at $1.6038 in July 2008 and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of its decline from November 2009 to June 2010.

 

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Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

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"Nomura: USD/JPY may fall to 80.00"(2011-03-04)

 

 

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Analysts at Nomura Securities claim that the pair USD/JPY is trapped in the 82.30 area as Japanese institutional investors are buying US currency, while exporters are selling.

 

Although the trading has been quite so far, the specialists warn that the greenback still risks falling below 80.00. According to Nomura, many investors are ready to turn bearish if dollar starts going down towards 80.00, though many of them also say that they'll reverse their positions below that mark.

 

In the longer term the strategists expect USD/JPY to reach 90.00 if it manages to overcome the 85.00 level. In that case Japanese investors would unwind some of their hedging positions and sell yen.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

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"John Taylor: EUR/USD forecast"(2011-03-04)

 

 

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John Taylor, the head of FX Concepts LLC, the world’s largest currency hedge fund, notes that by June the European currency may climb to 13-month maximum versus US dollar as the European Central Bank will soon lifts up interest rates,

 

Yesterday the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet claimed that the central bank may raise next month its benchmark interest rate from 1% level for the first time since 2008 in order to stem rising inflation. That would inevitably lead to euro’s gains, at least temporary, noted Taylor. In his view, the pair EUR/USD may advance to $1.45 per dollar, the maximal level since January 15, 2010.

 

However, the specialist believes that then, by the third quarter, the European economic growth will slow down and euro will depreciate. In his view, “there’s a recession coming”.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

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"Westpac: NZD/USD is likely to keep falling"(2011-03-04)

 

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Analysts at Westpac note that the New Zealand’s dollar remains under heavy pressure trading versus the greenback. The specialists say that the key support for the pair NZD/USD lies at 0.7350. If kiwi breaks down through this level, it will be poised to slide to 0.7200.

 

According to Westpac, it’s necessary to watch US nonfarm payrolls data that will be published at 1:30 p.m. GMT. The strategists expect strong figures here that will add positive momentum to US currency and increase bearish pressure on NZD.

 

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News believe that US economy gained 196,000 jobs in February, the most since May 2010. In January the number of payrolls increased only by 36,000 due to the winter storms. US unemployment rate is thought to have risen from 9% to 9.1%.

 

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Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

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"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-03-04)

 

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US dollar recovered versus Swiss franc from Wednesday’s minimum at 0.9200 to one-week maximum at 0.9330.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that there a divergence on the daily RSI that means that the downside momentum for the pair USD/CHF is decreasing.

 

The specialists underline, however, that as long as the greenback is trading below the resistance at 0.9340 (23.6% retracement), the outlook for it remains negative and it may drop to 0.9120 and 0.9000.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/CHF

 

 

 

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"Mizuho: USD/JPY will move to the triangle’s lower border"(2011-03-04)

 

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Analysts at Mizuho Trust and Banking believe that US February Non-Farm payrolls data due at 13:30 GMT is likely to have a limited impact on the pair USD/JPY. The specialists expect that the greenback will keep trading between 81 and 83 yen for some time.

 

The strategists note that the Federal Reserve has a long way ahead until it decides to end the monetary stimulus measures and tighten policy. As a result, the yield rate differential between the United States and Japan won’t widen enough to support investors’ demand for US currency.

 

Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the pair USD/JPY has suddenly bounced to the middle of the narrowing “triangle” formation but was constrained by the moving averages that are now going down below the small daily Ichimoku Cloud. In case of the weekly close below 81.30, bearish momentum for dollar will increase.

 

According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to sell US currency at 82.45 stopping above 82.70 and targeting 81.60.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

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"Largest asset managers on US dollar’s rate"(2011-03-04)

 

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Analysts at BlackRock and Pacific Investment Management Company, the world’s biggest bond-management firms, give opposite outlooks for US currency.

 

BlackRock specialists favor US dollar against euro noting that the sovereign-debt crisis in the euro area will cause volatility in the region, while the European banks are in need of capital. In their view, the tensions in the Middle East will continue escalating. Political turmoil that hit Tunisia only 2 months ago, while now it has already enveloped such countries as Oman, Bahrain and Libya.

 

BlackRock strategists say that any disruptions in Saudi Arabia could propel the oil price to $150 per barrel in the near term. During the past week Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index dropped by 15%. Global equities risk slumping and investors may soon turn to the greenback as a safe haven, while American bond yields will climb by 4%.

 

Analysts at Pimco, on the other hand, advised investors to avoid dollars and expect US Treasury yields to decline.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

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"Strong Aussie creates risks for the country’s economy"(2011-03-04)

 

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Australia’s Prime Minister Julia Gillard claimed that country’s economy is too dependent on commodities exports, while the domestic spending level remains relatively low. As a result, Australia is vulnerable in the current situation of commodity boom.

 

Australia’s dollar, the world’s fifth-most traded currency, added 12% versus the greenback in 2010. The pair AUD/USD driven by rising revenues from shipments of coal and iron ore to China has reached in December the $1.0256 level, maximum since it became floated in 1983. Strong Aussie affects Australian manufacturing and tourism industries.

 

It’s necessary to note that unlike the emerging countries from Brazil to China, Australian authorities refrained from steps to stem currency gains, such as through limits on capital inflows letting the market determine Aussie’s rate. So, the nation’s government doesn’t consider the possibility of conducting interventions to weaken Aussie’s rate.

 

Analysts at National Australia Bank believe that the performance of Australia’s economy may be weaker than expected. In their view, there’s a risk of the Dutch disease effect when the commodities industry grows driving up the national currency and hurting manufacturing as it happened in the Netherlands in 1970s.

 

Analysts at TD Securities claim that the performance of Australian dollar was practically unaffected by the Trichet’s comments, New Zealand’s earthquake and the oil crisis. The specialists, however, note that the pair AUD/USD will get chance to reach the post-float maximum at 1.0253 only if the RBA signals the rate hike while the central bank indicated no such intention this week. The mentioned level will act as a resistance for now.

 

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Chart. Weekly AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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"Rabobank: EUR/USD 3-month forecast lifted"(2011-03-04)

 

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Analysts at Rabobank increased 3-month forecast for the pair EUR/USD from 1.40 to 1.42 after the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet claimed yesterday that the central bank may raise the interest rates next month. The specialists still think that the single currency will trade at 1.52 in a year.

 

According to Rabobank, although the market was expecting hawkish comments from the EBC, the analysts got taken by surprise by such degree of hawkishness.

 

The pair EUR/USD added 4.3% since the beginning of this year. The pace of euro’s advance was high despite the fact that the euro zone’s debt crisis is far from over.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

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"Money market news: interest rates expectations"(2011-03-04)

 

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Money market rates show that the European Central Bank will increase borrowing costs in July the latest.

 

According to forward contracts on Eonia (euro overnight index average), investors speculating that the ECB will raise its main refinancing rate from 1% by 25 basis points by its July meeting, note the economists at Deutsche Bank AG. The bets were brought forward after yesterday’s ECB statement.

 

The European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet claimed that inflation risks had moved to the “upside” and that it may be necessary to lift up borrowing costs already in April.

 

The 2-year German note yield added 23 basis points, while Euribor (3-month euro interbank offered rate) rose today to 20-month maximum.

 

According to forward rates on Sonia (sterling overnight interbank average), the Bank of England policy makers is likely to start hiking one month earlier than the ECB and increase the 0.5% borrowing costs to 1% by October.

 

 

 

 

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"Morgan Stanley raised euro forecast versus major currencies"(2011-03-07)

 

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Currency strategists at Morgan Stanley have once again revised upwards their forecast for the pair EUR/USD as they expect the European Central Bank to lift up interest rates in 2011 and 2012. The first rate hike in almost 3 years may be conducted as soon as in April as inflationary pressure in the euro area escalates.

 

The specialists increased projection of euro’s rate by the end of this year from $1.24 to $1.45. Morgan Stanley also raised the year-end forecast for the pair EUR/JPY from 115 to 122 yen, for the pair EUR/CHF – from 1.24 to 1.35 francs and for the pair EUR/GBP – from 78 to 90 pence.

 

According to the analysts, the ECB will increase interest rates by 25 basis points 3 times this year and 3 times in 2012.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

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"Commerzbank: EUR/USD will advance to 1.4535"(2011-03-07)

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Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that as the European currency has broken above 1.4010 trading versus US dollar, it will be able to climb to 1.4318 and 1.4535 levels representing the resistance line drawn from the 2008 peak, a long-term double Fibonacci level and the 1995 maximum.

 

According to the specialists, bullish pressure on the pair EUR/USD will ease only if it falls below 1.3717.

 

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Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

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"ING: buy EUR/JPY"(2011-03-07)

 

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Analysts at ING Commercial Bank claim that the single currency may rise next week to 1.42 trading versus US dollar. As a result, the specialists have increased their short-term targets for the pair EUR/USD. In their view, euro will rise to 1.45 during the next 1-3 months. The forecast for the end of 2011 was left unchanged at 1.48.

 

The bank notes that the most efficient way to gain on euro’s strength is to trade EUR/JPY as the ECB seems ready to start monetary tightening in the coming months, while the Bank of Japan may keep rates at the record minimum during the next 2 years. According to ING, EUR/JPY is likely to break above 115-116 and advance to 120 yen per euro.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

 

 

 

 

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"Forecast Pte: euro will resume growth after consolidation"(2011-03-08)

 

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The single currency reached yesterday maximum since November 8 at 1.4035 trading versus the greenback, but then eased retreating to the 1.3975 area. Technical analysts at Forecast Pte claim that after a brief consolidation the pair EUR/USD may continue its way up to 4-month maximum at 1.4282 set on November 4. In their view, the uptrend is still quite firm. Last week euro gained 1.7% and since the beginning of this year it added 4.3%.

 

The specialists say that daily, weekly and monthly euro charts remain positive, although short-term momentum indicators such as the RSI show that the currency may be approaching “overbought” levels. The European currency will keep rising after a pause as EUR/USD managed to close last week major resistance at the 1.3974 level that’s found on the downtrend line connecting December 3, 2009, maximum of $1.5141 and November 4, 2010, maximum at $1.4282.

 

Euro’s MACD also indicates a further advance. According to Bloomberg data, the MACD was 0.0112 today, above the signal line of 0.0091. Euro’s 14-day RSI was at 66.8 today from 59.3 a week ago, approaching the level of 70 that suggests a currency is about to change direction.

 

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Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

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"JPMorgan: recommendations on major currencies"(2011-03-08)

 

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Analysts at JPMorgan claim that the rising energy prices have driven a wedge between the central banks that target headline inflation and those which prefer watching core inflation.

 

As a result, the bank recommends buying the European currency, though very selectively (versus Japanese yen, for example) trying to make out how much ECB tightening is already priced in its rate. The bank advises to stay long on currencies that appreciate due to the economic strength (Swiss franc) and remain short on those currencies where the economies cannot validate overblown monetary expectations (British pound).

 

JPMorgan also favors Canadian dollar versus its Australian and American counterparts.

 

 

 

 

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"CBI on the BoE rates"(2011-03-08)

 

 

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Economists at Confederation of British Industry believe that the Bank of England may start slowly and steadily increasing interest rates in the second quarter as the rising inflation is worrying the country’s population. The specialists, however, think that the rates will remain rather low. According to CBI, some of the factors behind the accelerating inflation are global, so it’s not that clear whether the rate hikes will be efficient enough.

 

In January annual inflation rate in the UK climbed to 4% rising 2 times higher than the BoE target.

 

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News project that the BoE Monetary Policy Committee will leave the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% on March 10 meeting. It’s also expected that Britain’s monetary authorities will keep their bond-purchase plan at 200 billion pounds ($326 billion).

 

 

 

 

 

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"BNY Mellon: EUR/USD may reverse downwards"(2011-03-10)

 

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Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon claim that the European currency may start losing versus the greenback due to the euro zone’s debt problems. In their view, there will soon be a tipping point for sentiment about the peripheral euro-zone debt and, consequently, for euro.

 

According to Bloomberg, Portuguese 10-year bond yields rose today to maximal level. The country sold securities at borrowing costs almost 50% higher than at a September auction. Portugal is trying to convince investors that it can avoid applying for financial help to the EU and the IMF like Greece and Ireland did. Portuguese authorities raise taxes and conduct the deepest spending cuts in more than 3 decades selling debt to cover its fiscal deficit.

 

European leaders will meet tomorrow to discuss the ways to solve the debt crisis. The EU summit will take place on March 24-25 and will surely have strong impact at the market.

 

The pair EUR/USD has climbed this year by 4% on the expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates to counter accelerating inflation. The single currency didn’t manage to hold last week above 1.40 and retreated getting below February 2 maximum at 1.3860.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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