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All eyes on ECB monetary policy meeting - BNZ

 


 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Spiros Papadopoulos, economist at BNZ, suggests that th eECB shouldn't make any unexpected moves at its monetary policy meeting this Thursday. 

 

Key quotes

 

"With interest rates at the zero bound, there is nothing that practically can now be done on rates unless the corridor between the deposit and refinance rates is widened. We do not look for this to happen."

 

"The ECB is hoping that the results of the banking stress tests and AQR will see Eurozone banks acquire enough capital to be able to lend freely to corporates, which then leaves the ABS scheme as a cheap form of funding for further lending."

 

"However, this will only become clear in December when the second TLTRO auction is held. Until then, the ECB will be crossing its fingers and hoping." 

 


 

 

Nov 03, 2014

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SEB:Caution if USD/JPY closing below 112.14 - eFXnews

 


 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that the SEB sees a risk of a correction in USD/JPY. 

 

Key quotes

 

"Friday’s buying spree brought the pair up above the estimated ceiling line at 112.08."

 

"The move is however starting to look stretched so there’s clearly an increasing correction risk lurking."

 

"Ending today back into the channel will increase such a risk and will probably trigger a few stops."

 

"Should a setback occur the mid body point, 110.75, of Friday’s rising benchmark candle, will be a first hand target."

 

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' 

 


 

 

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EUR/JPY hits fresh 6-month high

 


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/JPY advanced to fresh 6-month highs as the yen continues to underperform across the board as investors continue to assess Friday's BoJ easing move.

 

After briefly dropping below 141.00 to a low of 140.39 during the Asian session, EUR/JPY resumed the upside and climbed toward its highest level since early May at 141.97 so far. At time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading at 141.85, recording a 0.82% gain Monday, after gaining 2.16% Friday following the announcement of BoJ easing measures.

 

EUR/JPY levels to watch

 

On the upside, EUR/JPY could find next resistances at 142.00 (psychological level) and 142.35 (May 8 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 140.39 (daily low) and 140.00 (psychological level). 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Chinese demand rises amid falling Gold prices

 


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Gold prices have lost almost USD 50 since the Federal Reserve ended its QE program while sounding upbeat about the US economy. Despite this, Chinese demand as reported by Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) appears to have increased sharply. 

 

The latest weekly withdrawals figure from the SGE hit 59.7 tonnes, which takes the aggregate total total Chinese gold demand this year to 1 600 tonnes. Moreover, the total demand for 2014 may exceed 2000 tonnes if the size of the weekly withdrawals remains constant in the days ahead. Last year, Chinese demand was huge even though Gold prices were pummeled. 

 

The yellow metal is trading largely unchanged today at USD 1171.30/Oz. A sharp rise in the US Dollar index is capping gains in the yellow metal. Meanwhile, Gold may post gains if the US manufacturing data due for release at 15:00 GMT disappoints market expectations. 

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

Gold has an immediate resistance at 1183.50, while the immediate support is located at 1160.50 levels. 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/CAD looking to recover 1.1300

 


 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bottoming out in sub-1.1270 levels, USD/CAD is now recovering the ground lost and aiming for the 1.1300 handle.


USD/CAD eyes on US docket

 

Spot is advancing for the second consecutive session so far, targeting the interim resistance at Friday’s peaks around 1.1330 against a backdrop of a persistent USD strength. Next of relevance for the pair will be the reports of both Canadian and US manufacturing sectors, with the releases of the RBC PMI and the ISM and PMI gauged by Markit, respectively. According to the last CFTC report, strategists at Rabobank noted, “CAD positions were mostly consolidative, though soft oil prices have pushed CAD shorts to their highest level since June”.

 

USD/CAD levels to watch

 

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.14% at 1.1282 and a surpass of 1.1332 (high Oct.31) would open the door to 1.1360 (high oct.16) and then 1.1385 (2014 high Oct.15). On the other side, the immediate support lines up at 1.1264 (low Nov.3) ahead of 1.1227 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.1183 (low Oct.31). 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Crude long positions at 17-month low

 


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Crude oil traders trimmed their long positions in line with the falling prices ahead of the more hawkish Fed commentary. 

 

The data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows long positions fell to their lowest level in 17 months. Hedge funds reduced net-long positions in WTI Crude by 2.3% for the week ended Oct 28. Net-longs for WTI declined by 4,288 to 182,486 futures and options combined during the week ended Oct. 28. Long positions dropped to 249,841, lowest since May 2013, while short positions slipped 2.5% to 67,355.

 

Moreover, their decision to trim the long positions proved to be correct as the Crude prices tumbled 18% in October. The WTI Crude for December delivery is trading 0.47% higher at USD 80.92/barrel.

 

WTI Crude Technical levels

 

Crude has an immediate resistance at 81.26, above which the prices can rise to 81.73 levels. On the flip side, prices may test 80.00 levels if the immediate support at 80.73 is breached. 

 

 

 


 

 

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GBP/USD capped by 1.6020

 


 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD rose through the 1.60 mark and printed fresh daily highs, filling the weekly opening gap in the process, following stronger than expected UK manufacturing PMI.

 

GBP/USD managed to bounce off a daily low of 1.5925 and rose nearly 100 pips throughout the day toward a high of 1.6020 before finding resistance and settling in a slim range over the last hours. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.5998, virtually unchanged on the day.

 

GBP/USD technical outlook

 

“The short-term momentum is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1.6038 (30/10/2014 high). Another hourly resistance stands at 1.6088 (28/10/2014 low)”, said Peter A Rosenstreich, analyst at Swissquote Bank SA. 

 

“In the longer term, given the significant deterioration of the technical structure since July, the strong resistance area between 1.6525 (19/09/2014 high) and 1.6644 (01/09/2014 high) is expected to cap any upside in the coming months. Monitor the current consolidation phase near the strong support at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low)”, the analyst added. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 03, 2014

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US Equities to open on a flat note

 


 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity markets are likely to open on a flat note today ahead of the monthly manufacturing data. 

 

The DJIA December futures are trading lower by 0.17% at 17,280 levels, while the S&P December futures are trading 0.10% down at 0.10%. Meanwhile, the Midcap index Russell 2000 December futures are trading 0.06% lower at 1170.30. 

 

The equity futures remained flat throughout the Asian and the European session after the weak Chinese manufacturing data renewed the concerns of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Bullish outlook for USD/CAD - TD Securities


 


FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of experts observe that the headwinds for the CAD such as weaker commodities, continue this week so the bull trend for USD/CAD should remain in place for now. 

 

Key quotes

 

"The week ahead will be hallmarked by two dual releases in the form of US and Canadian trade figures tomorrow and both countries’ employment reports on Friday."

 

"In a nutshell, we are expecting Canadian trade to surprise on the upside and we have an on-consensus view on Canadian employment, whereas we are slightly below consensus on US trade but above consensus on US employment."

 

"The first hurdle for the CAD will be trade—and we think risks here are somewhat asymmetric; ok-to-good data do little positive for the CAD but another disappointing outcome will hurt the CAD more. If both our employment forecasts come to fruition (-10K in Canada vs +239K in the US), funds will surely have another big up day Friday." 

 

"Governor Poloz speaks this afternoon at an event organized by the Canadian Council for Public Private Partnerships. We do not expect his speech to break new ground on the BoC latest thinking but the press conference scheduled at 14.00ET bears watching, as it will provide journalists the opportunities to ask the questions they could not ask upon the release of the MPR on October 22nd."

 

"We remain conviction bulls on USDCAD; the headwinds we noted for the CAD last week—softer commodities and wider (more USD-supportive– remain evident at the start of the week and the charts are shaping up quite bullishly; the 40-day MA hold last week suggests the broader bull trend is intact, the consolidation (bull flag) break out points to more immediate gains and new highs, the higher weekly high negates a mildly negative weekly candle in the week before last."

 

"We think modest dips are a buy and we would be reluctant to fade gains from here—USDCAD is shaping up for a move (recall weekly technicals point to 1.18+)." 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 03, 2014

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GBP/USD wobbling around 1.6000


 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains in a sideline pattern on Tuesday, taking GBP/USD to the area around the psychological limestone at 1.6000.

 

GBP/USD looks to the US for direction

 

Absent relevant data or events in the UK economy, spot will focus on the US data releases later on today for better clues regarding direction, at least until the BoE MPC meeting due on Thursday. In the meantime, the pair seems comfortable hovering over the 1.6000 neighbourhood today, unable to break the consolidative mood either way. According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, “Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.6062 (20 day ma) ahead of key resistance at 1.6185. Short term onus remains on the downside, while we trade below 1.6185”.


GBP/USD levels to consider

 

At the moment the pair is up 0.16% at 1.6000 with the immediate hurdle at 1.6027 (high Nov.3) ahead of 1.6038 (high Oct.30) and then 1.6055 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.5928 (low Nov.3) followed by 1.5875 (2014 low Oct.15) and finally 1.5854 (low Nov.12 2012). 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 04, 2014

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Miner stocks hurt by rout in Gold prices


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - A sharp decline in the Gold prices witnessed in the last week led to a sharp sell-off in the miner stock prices in the US. 

 

The top five gold miners fell almost 12% on average in the last two trading sessions of the previous week. Kinross Gold fell 20% last week and trades nearly 50% down in 2014. Meanwhile, Roxgold and Romarco Minerals were most notable among losers, down 27% and 22% respectively. Barrick and Goldcorp's share prices fell 7% and 12% respectively. 

 

Moreover, the fall in some of the stocks was three times more than that of the fall in Gold prices, which indicates the sell-off may be overdone.

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 04, 2014

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US index futures hint at a weak opening on Wall Street


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The equity futures in the US declined as investors await evidence, in the form of macro data, that the economy can sustain a withdrawal in stimulus. 

 

The DJIA December futures are trading lower by 0.19% at 17,253 levels, while the S&P December futures are trading 0.25% down at 2006.15. Meanwhile, the Midcap index Russell 2000 December futures are trading 0.35% lower at 1162.00. 

 

Earnings reports may provide further clues to the health of the U.S. economy. Prudential Financial Inc., 21st Century Fox Inc., and Walt Disney Co. are among the S&P 500 companies posting financial results this week. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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EUR/USD in ranges above 1.2500


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The euro remained steady again the US dollar after the release of trade data from the US. EUR/USD continues to move in a range with support above 1.2500 and resistance below 1.2530. 

 

The pair is rising modestly, recovering after reaching fresh 2014 lows yesterday at 1.2437. The pair peaked at 1.2531 during the Asian session and since then held near the highs but unable to break above 1.2530. 

 

The trade deficit in the US in September rose to $43.03 B, above the $40B expected. It was the highest deficit since May. Greenback fell modestly after the report, but the forex market was mostly unaffected by the data. 

 

 

 


 

 

Nov 04, 2014

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NOK slumps, dragged by oil prices


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Norwegian krone is among the worst performers in the FX market given its high exposure to oil prices, which continue to fall.

 

Both Brent and crude oil prices are about 2% down on the day, with the latter having scored a low of $75.90, last seen October 2011. Saudi Arabia cut its prices Monday for oil sold in December in the US, triggering the sell-off. Oil prices are down about 25% from mid-June highs.

 

EUR/NOK has risen over 130 pips, or 1.59%, throughout the day and reached its highest level since September 2009 at 8.6226 in recent dealings. Meanwhile, USD/NOK gained nearly 1.5% and reached a 5 ½-year peak of 6.8916. 

 

 

 


 

 

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NOK slumps, dragged by oil prices


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Norwegian krone is among the worst performers in the FX market given its high exposure to oil prices, which continue to fall.

 

Both Brent and crude oil prices are about 2% down on the day, with the latter having scored a low of $75.90, last seen October 2011. Saudi Arabia cut its prices Monday for oil sold in December in the US, triggering the sell-off. Oil prices are down about 25% from mid-June highs.

 

EUR/NOK has risen over 130 pips, or 1.59%, throughout the day and reached its highest level since September 2009 at 8.6226 in recent dealings. Meanwhile, USD/NOK gained nearly 1.5% and reached a 5 ½-year peak of 6.8916. 

 

 

 


 

 

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AUD/NZD hovering around 1.1240


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/NZD remains flat on Tuesday after RBA decision and ahead of key economic data from New Zealand. 

 

The pair bottomed during the Asian session after economic numbers from Australia and the RBA statement at 1.1207, reaching the lowest price since last Friday but then bounced to the upside and printed a daily high on European hours at 1.1272. 

 

AUD/NZD technical outlook 

 

In the short term the pair remains moving sideways, in a range between 1.1210 and 1.1270; with a bias that favors the aussie. But the area around 1.1300 has become a key resistance. 

 

After Wall Street closing bell the NZ employment report will be release and is likely to impact in the kiwi. Weak numbers could push the pair to test 1.1300 while to the downside, 1.1190 - 1.1200 is an important support area to consider if employment figures surpass expectations. 

 

 

 


 

 

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Silver trades below USD 16.00


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Silver prices have failed to sustain gains above USD 16.00 levels, after ending the previous session at USD 16.20/Oz levels. 

 

Silver is trading 1.62% lower at USD 15.938/Oz levels today, after having struggled repeatedly around USD 16.20 levels. The recovery seen yesterday may have been driven by a bout of profit booking on the short positions. Moreover, Silver is down 16% on the year, while the recent slump has been more than the one witnessed in the Gold prices. A sharp rise in the US Dollar index has pressurized the precious metals pack. 

 

Meanwhile, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ended Oct. 28 revealed that the money-managers boosted their net-short in silver, pushing it to the highest level since June 3. Their bearish position now stands at 10,321 contracts. The large speculators cut 251 gross longs and added 1,434 gross shorts. Elsewhere, non-commercials added 135 gross longs and 1,638 gross shorts, making them net-short 98 contracts. 

 

Silver Technical levels

 

Silver has an immediate support at 15.887, under which the prices can fall to 15.74 levels. On the other hand, resistance is seen at 16.14 and 16.20 levels. 

 

 

 


 

 

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Silver trades below USD 16.00


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Silver prices have failed to sustain gains above USD 16.00 levels, after ending the previous session at USD 16.20/Oz levels. 

 

Silver is trading 1.62% lower at USD 15.938/Oz levels today, after having struggled repeatedly around USD 16.20 levels. The recovery seen yesterday may have been driven by a bout of profit booking on the short positions. Moreover, Silver is down 16% on the year, while the recent slump has been more than the one witnessed in the Gold prices. A sharp rise in the US Dollar index has pressurized the precious metals pack. 

 

Meanwhile, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ended Oct. 28 revealed that the money-managers boosted their net-short in silver, pushing it to the highest level since June 3. Their bearish position now stands at 10,321 contracts. The large speculators cut 251 gross longs and added 1,434 gross shorts. Elsewhere, non-commercials added 135 gross longs and 1,638 gross shorts, making them net-short 98 contracts. 

 

Silver Technical levels

 

Silver has an immediate support at 15.887, under which the prices can fall to 15.74 levels. On the other hand, resistance is seen at 16.14 and 16.20 levels. 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/JPY attempts to trades above 113.50, but rejected


 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - After a brief period of consolidation in between 113.15 and 113.50, USD/JPY accelerated to return above 113.50 and testing daily highs at 113.75; however, pair received a rejection of this level and now it is below the 113.50 again.

 

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 113.41, down -0.31% on the day, having posted a daily high at 114.08 and low at 113.17. USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. 

 

USD/JPY sentiment

 

"The pair has still an unfilled gap at 112.30 yet seems chances of a turn towards the level are limited," Valeri Bednarik from FXStreet comments. "Above 113.90 on the other hand, the pair will likely advance towards fresh highs year highs around 114.50/60."

 

In the short term, with a successful break above 113.50, the USD/JPY will find resistances at 113.75, 114.00 and 114.20. To the downside, supports are at 113.30, 113.15 and 113.00. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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AUD/USD retreats form 0.8750


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Despite the decline of the US dollar against European currencies, AUD/USD retreat during the American session, trimming gains. 

 

The pair bottomed during the Asian session at 0.8644 and then rose sharply. The recovery was capped by 0.8750 and then pulled back. Recently the pair printed a fresh session low at 0.8710 and currently trades at 0.8720/25, up 0.33% for the day. 

 

Earlier the retail sales report from Australia showed an increase of 1.2% surpassing expectations while export and imports also rose above expectations. Afterwards the central bank left rates unchanged as expected. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/CHF climbs to 0.9650


 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF erased most of yesterday losses during the last five hours and climbed to 0.9650, reaching a fresh daily high, slightly below the price it had at the beginning of the week. 

 

Greenback is rising across the board on Wednesday, after US elections and ahead of the ADP employment report. Despite falling against the US dollar the Swiss franc is the best performer among European currencies. 

 

USD/CHF with support at 0.9575/80

 

The pair bottomed yesterday at 0.9578 and today during the Asian session approached the mentioned level that offered support again. Afterwards turned to the upside and climbed further on European horus. 

 

Again USD/CHF has approached 2014 highs that lie barely below 0.9700. From current price (0.9635/38), immediate resistance lies at 0.9650/55 and above here at 0.9665 and then 0.9690 (Nov 3 high). To the downside, support might now lie at 0.9615 and below 0.9575 (Nov 4 low). 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Gold continues to fall


 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices extend their slide ahead of the US session tracking broad based strength in the US Dollar and the strength in the US Equity futures. 

 

Gold is trading 2.46% lower at USD 1139/Oz levels while the US Dollar Index has inched 0.58% higher to 87.67 levels. The S&P futures are trading 0.50% higher at 2015.45 levels. The yellow metal failed to find any support from a slight weakness in the European PMI indices, since the equities in the Europe remained resilient. 

 

The yellow metal may dip further today if equities in the US rise further in anticipation of a more aggressive stimulus measure from the European Central Bank. 

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

Gold has an immediate resistance at 1144, above which prices can re-test 1161 levels. Meanwhile, immediate support is seen at 1118 levels. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/JPY hits fresh highs above 114.70 ahead of ADP


 

 


FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY continued to rise and reached a fresh 7-year high ahead of the release of employment data in US at 114.76. The pair remains near the highs as the US dollar climbs further across the board. 

 

“The USD has recovered overnight, boosted not only by the strong outcome for the Republicans in yesterday’s election, but also by comments by BoJ’s Governor Kuroda, who has vowed to do whatever he can to achieve the BoJ’s 2% inflation target and noted that he sees no limit to the measures the central bank can take”, mentioned analysts from TD securities. 

 

USD/JPY with data ahead

 

Volatility could persist over the coming hours. At 13:15 GMT the ADP employment report will be release and it could have an impact on the USD/JPY. The private payroll is expected to show an increase of 220.000; a larger number could boost the US dollar. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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