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Treasury yields slide on weak US data

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the short end and the long end of the treasury market curve declined after the disappointing US services PMI data and the Pending home sales data hit the wires.

 

The ten-year yield now trades at 2.243%, down from the day’s high of 2.298%, while the two-year note yield trades at 0.378%, down from the day’s high of 0.402%. Moreover, the bond prices gained, pushing yields lower after the reports came-in that the US Pending home sales increased 1% year-over-year in September, much lower than the market forecast of a 2.2% increase. Meanwhile, the preliminary services PMI reading for October came-in at 57.3, compared to the market expectation of 57.8. 

 

Moreover, the stronger pickup in the wages was expected to push up housing purchases. The treasury yields are likely to remain well supported as markets brace up for the Federal Reserve (Fed) meet on Wednesday, wherein the central bank is widely expected to end its monthly bond buying program. 

 

Ten-year yield Technical levels

 

The yield has an immediate resistance at 2.3%, while the support is located at 2.229% (Oct 24th low). 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/JPY extends fall amid weak data and lower US yields

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar is trading under pressure amid weaker than expected housing and PMI services data in the United States as well as lower US yields. The USD/JPY is extending declines to 107.60 area after breaking previous lows of 107.70.

 

Services PMI declined to 57.3 in October; more than 58.0 expected and lowest since April. The pending home sales index rose 'only' 0.3% in September, below 0.5% increase expected.

 

US 10-year yield is now trading at 2.243% after declining from 2.298% daily high amid weak US data. As Omkar Godbole from FXStreet points out, "the yield has an immediate resistance at 2.3%, while the support is located at 2.229% (Oct 24th low)."

 

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 107.70, down -0.42% on the day, having posted a daily high at 108.37 and low at 107.65. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. 

 

USD/JPY sentiment

 

The USD/JPY is trading down amid US data and affected by US yields; however, "the ECB announce their ABS spending spree thus far at the bottom of the hour," points out Ryan Littlestone from ForexLive. There shouldn’t be too much market reaction as there’s not much to gauge how they should be doing. That won’t stop some from having a guess at what they think the ECB should be doing so bear it in mind."

 

Short term supports are at 107.60, 107.45 and 107.35. To the upside, resistances are at 07.90, 108.00 and 108.35. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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GBP/USD jumps to 6-day highs

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD spiked to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session in a bout of dollar selling following disappointing US economic data.

 

GBP/USD rallied nearly 40 pips in a matter of minutes and printed a 6-day high of 1.6146 before easing slightly. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.6135, recording a 0.31% gain on the day.

 

US data showed US pending home sales grew 0.3% in September versus a 0.5% gain expected, while Dallas Fed manufacturing business index fell short of expectations at 10.3 in October.

 

GBP/USD technical levels

 

In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.6183 (Oct 21 high) and 1.6200 (psychological level) and 1.6225 (Oct 9 high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.6079 (intraday low), 1.6066 (10-day SMA) and 1.6015 (Oct 24 low). 

 

 

 


 

 

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Gold edges lower while the DJIA recovers

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold has edged slightly lower tracking the recovery in the US and the European equity markets. 

 

Gold is trading at USD 1228.40/Oz, down from the USD 1230/Oz levels seen at the beginning of the US session. The DJIA has recovered from the initial weakness to trade largely unchanged for the day. Meanwhile, the Dax has recovered from the losses of more than 1.5% to trade 0.80% lower. On similar lines, the Ftse has recovered to trade 0.30% lower. 

 

Moreover, the stock prices across the Europe and the US recovered after reports came-in that the European Central Bank (ECB) settled 1.704 billion euros ($2.2 billion) of covered-bond purchases last week. 

 

Gold Technical levels

 

Gold has an immediate resistance at 1232, above which prices can rise to 1235 levels. On the flip side, failure to sustain above the immediate support of 1227 shall push the prices down to 1223 levels. 

 

 


 

 

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Crude oil remains weak ahead of supply data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Crude prices on both sides of the Atlantic are trading near the three-day lows amid speculation that the stockpiles in the US rose to the highest level since July. 

 

WTI Crude is trading 0.13% lower at USD 80.90/barrel while the Brent Crude is trading 0.23% lower at USD 85.63/barrel. The prices resumed their fall yesterday after a major investment bank reduced its WTI and Brent Crude price forecast by USD 15. As per Goldman Sachs, “The scale and sustainability of U.S. shale oil production is making global oil cheaper.” 

 

According to a Bloomberg news survey, Crude inventories are expected to have increased by 3.8 million barrels to 381.5 million last week. 

 

Brent Crude Technical levels

 

Brent Crude has an immediate resistance of 86.00, above which prices can rally to 86.59 levels. On the flip side, a breach of the immediate support level of 85.16, shall open doors for a re-test of 84.56 levels.  

 

 


 

 

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GBP holding to latest gains against USD - FXStreet

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that GBP/USD has been hovering slightly above the 1.6100 level on Tuesday.

 

Key quotes 

 

"Price stands close to a daily descendant trend line coming from July high of 1.7190 today converging with Monday high in the 1.6145 price zone."

 

"The lack of directional strength has left 4 hours indicators flat albeit in positive territory, while 20 SMA presents a mild bullish tone below current price, offering dynamic intraday support at 1.6075."

 

"Neutral to bullish, the upside is favored on a break above mentioned 1.6145 towards the 1.6200 price zone, whilst below 1.6070, the pair’s bearish run may extend down to 1.6030 price zone."   

 

 


 

 

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Gold declines ahead of the US Durbale Goods Orders data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices have edged marginally lower ahead of the US durable goods data, tracking the rise in the US Equity futures. 

 

Gold is trading 0.19% lower at USD 1227/Oz, after having hit a high of USD 1231.70/Oz during the European session. Moreover, the US Equities are trading higher ahead of the release of the Durable goods orders number for September due at 12:30 GMT. The DJIA December futures are trading 0.47% higher, while the S&P December futures are trading 0.53% higher at the time of writing. Consequently, the ten-year treasury yields have inched higher to 2.287%. 

 

The yellow metal may extend losses if the durable goods orders rise more than the market expectation of 0.5% growth. 

 

Gold Technical levels

 

Gold has an immediate resistance of the day’s high of 1231.30, above which prices can rise to 1235 levels. Meanwhile, prices may slip to 1225 levels since the metal has failed to sustain gains above 1230 levels. 

 

 

 


 

 

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EUR/CHF regains 1.2060

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/CHF is posting fresh session highs now, hovering over 1.2060/65 after dropping to the mid-1.2000s in early trade.

 

EUR/CHF bounces off 1.2050

 

The cross keeps the trade in a very tight range, currently coming up after a brief dip below 1.2050 on Monday. Data wise in the Alpine economy, the only releases of note this week will be the Consumption Indicator gauged by UBS and the KOF Leading Indicator, both due on Friday. In the meantime, market participants slowly commenced to turn their attention to the referendum regarding the SNB gold holdings on 30th November. “Initial resistance is found circa 1.2083, the 55 day ma. This guards the 1.2133 July low and the 200 day ma at 1.2159”, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.


EUR/CHF key levels

 

The cross is now up 0.02% at 1.2062 and a breakout of 1.2080 (30-d MA) would expose 1.2086 (38.2% of 1.2140-1.2053) and finally 1.2096 (high Oct.14). On the other hand, 

The initial support lines up at 1.2053 (low Oct.2) ahead of 1.2045 (low Sep.4) and then 1.2030 (low Nov.28 2012). 

 

 


 

 

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Gains in WTI Crude capped by weak US data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The gains in the Crude oil prices have been halted by a weaker than expected US Durable goods orders data. The prices had rallied from the three-day lows in anticipation of a strong data. 

 

WTI Crude for December delivery is trading 0.47% higher at USD 81.37/barrel. However, the prices slipped from a high of USD 81.65 levels hit just ahead of the release of the US data. The Durable goods orders in the US contracted 1.2% in September, missing market expectations of a 0.5% increase. 

 

Earlier today, the prices were pushed lower on forecasts that U.S. crude inventories increased last week. Moreover, the major investment banks have reduced their price forecasts for Crude oil on the both sides of the Atlantic. The latest one to do so is the Barclays, which reduced its estimate for the average Brent price in 2015 to $93 a barrel from $96, and for WTI prices to $85 from $89. 

 

Crude prices may dip once again if the US consumer confidence data for October fails to meet the market expectation of 87.00. 

 

WTI Crude Technical levels

 

WTI crude has an immediate support at 81.06 on the hourly chart, below which the prices can fall to 80.47 levels. On the flip side, prices can test 82.31 levels if the day’s high of 81.65 is breached. 

 

 


 

 

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US: Durable Good Orders (Sep) dropped 1.3%

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that orders for US long-lasting goods have contracted 1.3% MoM during September, missing expectations at 0.5% although better from August’s 18.3% drop (revised). Excluding the Transportation sector, orders fell 0.2% vs. forecasts for a 0.5% advance. 

 

 


 

 

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Faster, higher, stronger; GBP/USD extends advance amid dollar weakness

 

 

 

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling is joining the US Dollar's weakness environment after the US durable goods orders report and its price versus the Greenback is now testing October 21 high at 1.6180. 

 

Durable goods orders extended last month 18.3% decline after posting a 1.3% fall in September; against 0.5% rise expected. Ex-transport item, durable goods declined 0.2%.

 

The GBP/USD jumped 70 pips from 1.6110 to break yesterday's high at 1.6145 and after triggering stops around 1.6160, the pair rallied to test October 21 highs around 1.6180. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6179, up 0.37% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6184 and low at 1.6088.

 

The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. 

 

GBP/USD sentiment

 

Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet points out that in the short term "the hourly chart shows price extending above its 20 SMA and RSI heading strongly up above its midline, while the 4 hours chart also presents a bullish bias, with 200 EMA at 1.6190 acting as immediate resistance and the level to break to confirm more intraday gains in the pair."

 

If the pair breaks above 1.6180, it will find resistances at 1.6190 and 1.6200. To the downside, supports are at 1.6145, 1.6100 and 1.6090. 

 

 

 


 

 

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AUD/USD extends gains after disappointing US data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD gathered momentum and reached its highest level in nearly 3 weeks as the USD weakened on the back of disappointing US durable goods orders.

 

US durable goods orders fell 1.5% in September, marking the second straight decline after a 18.3% drop the previous month and versus a 0.5% rise expected. Excluding transportation, orders declined by a smaller 0.2% against a 0.5% increase forecasted.

 

AUD/USD broke above previous daily highs and reached a peak of 0.8881 before easing a tad. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 0.8860 area, recording a 0.69% gain Tuesday.

 

The Australian dollar was already outperforming supported by upbeat domestic data and rising stocks.

 

AUD/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, AUD/USD could find immediate resistances at 0.8891 (intraday high), 0.8898/0.8900 (Oct 9 high/psychological level) and 0.8926 (Sept 23 highs). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.8785 (10-day SMA), 0.8770 (21-day SMA) and 0.8742 (Oct 22 low). 

 

 

 


 

 

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Natural Gas remains weak, speculators cut bullish bets

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Natural Gas continues to hover near 11-month lows as the prices fail to rebound on bargain hunting demand.

 

Natural Gas for the December delivery is trading at USD 3.641/mmbtu, after having failed to capitalize on the gains during the European session. Moreover, a record high production and warm weather have kept the bulls at bay. Temperatures will be above normal across most of the lower 48 states over the next five days before readings in the East drop to seasonal or lower levels, according to the Commodity Weather Group LLC. 

 

As per the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, Hedge funds cut bullish bets by 51 % in the week ended Oct. 21 to the lowest level since April 2012. Net-long positions on four U.S. natural gas contracts declined by 35,257 futures. 

 

Natural Gas Technical levels

 

Natural Gas has an immediate resistance at 3.7, above which prices can rise to 3.83 levels. On the other hand, prices may fall to 3.5 levels if the immediate support of 3.623 is breached.  is breached. 

 

 

 


 

 

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DJIA gains 0.30%

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity markets have opened higher, in line with the action witnessed the gains in the European equity markets. The negative Durable goods number released earlier today has failed to have a big impact on the stock markets. 

 

The DJIA is trading 0.33% higher at 16,873.50 levels. The index breadth is positive with an advance decline ratio of 24:6. Among the index stocks, Merck&Co is trading 1.64% lower after it reported the disappointing sales of its Gardasil cervical cancer vaccine. The stock had tumbled 2% yesterday. Meanwhile, the biggest chemical maker by market value, Dupont share price is trading 0.30% up, despite reporting a surprise drop in the third-quarter sales. On the other hand, Caterpillar and Intel share prices are trading higher by 1.69% and 1.16% respectively. 

 

Moreover, the stock markets in the US may extend rally if the consumer confidence number for October due later in the day manages to surpass the expected print of 87.00. 

 

DJIA Technical levels

 

 

The index has an immediate support at 16,800 levels, below which the prices can drop to 16,652 levels. On the other hand, the index may extend gains to 17,000 levels if the immediate resistance of 16,900 is breached. 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/JPY expected to continue holding above 105.52 - RBS

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS suggests that USD/JPY should continue trading above the key support level of 105.52.

 

Key quotes

 

"The USD/JPY has accomplished its correction, which we anticipated after reaching the 109.30 target, as our key support level of 105.52 held on close and dips offered buying opportunities for 112.00 and more upside targets."

 

"The level was not only 50% swing extension of the 2013 impulse wave and 2013 – 2014 high lie, but also the Ichimoku cloud support."

 

"I believe the pair will continue to hold above 105.52 and Ichimoku cloud, as our targets of 109.30 and 112.00 remain intact. A break through the cloud cancels the view." 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/JPY expected to continue holding above 105.52 - RBS

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS suggests that USD/JPY should continue trading above the key support level of 105.52.

 

Key quotes

 

"The USD/JPY has accomplished its correction, which we anticipated after reaching the 109.30 target, as our key support level of 105.52 held on close and dips offered buying opportunities for 112.00 and more upside targets."

 

"The level was not only 50% swing extension of the 2013 impulse wave and 2013 – 2014 high lie, but also the Ichimoku cloud support."

 

"I believe the pair will continue to hold above 105.52 and Ichimoku cloud, as our targets of 109.30 and 112.00 remain intact. A break through the cloud cancels the view." 

 

 

 


 

 

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USD/JPY expected to continue holding above 105.52 - RBS

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS suggests that USD/JPY should continue trading above the key support level of 105.52.

 

Key quotes

 

"The USD/JPY has accomplished its correction, which we anticipated after reaching the 109.30 target, as our key support level of 105.52 held on close and dips offered buying opportunities for 112.00 and more upside targets."

 

"The level was not only 50% swing extension of the 2013 impulse wave and 2013 – 2014 high lie, but also the Ichimoku cloud support."

 

"I believe the pair will continue to hold above 105.52 and Ichimoku cloud, as our targets of 109.30 and 112.00 remain intact. A break through the cloud cancels the view." 

 

 

 


 

 

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US Treasury Secretary Lew confident about soundness of US recovery

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at a business forum in South Africa US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said that the current positive trend in US economy should continue, although he expressed concerns about the weak rebound on the housing market. 

 

He called for easing lending conditions to boost mortgages. He also pointed to the need of a tax reform and improvements in the US infrastructure.

 

Moreover the suggested that Europe needs a more responsible fiscal policy while China should concentrate on implementing the necessary economic reforms, making its policy more market oriented. However, the Chinese growth slowdown woes are exaggerated, Lew stressed. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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Treasuries trade flat ahead of the US Fed meet

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the long end and the short end of the US bond market curve are trading flat ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meet today. 

 

The ten-year yield is trading at 2.29%, largely unchanged from the yesterday’s New York closing of 2.298%. The Fed is widely expected to announce the end of its monthly bond purchase program today. Moreover, the taper begun in December 2013 when the Fed announced a first cut of USD 10 billion to the monthly bond buying program of USD 85 billion. Since then, the central bank has trimmed its bond purchase program at a pace of USD 10 billion in every policy meet. The Fed is widely expected to announce a final cut of USD 15 billion today. 

 

However, the Fed has maintained through the Taper process that it intends to keep the interest rate at record low levels for a considerable period of time post end of QE. Thus, the equity markets have gained across the globe today on hopes that the Fed would continue to remain dovish on interest rates. 

 

Ten-year yield Technical levels

 

The yield is trading near an immediate resistance of 2.3%, above which it can rise to 2.345%. On the other hand, a failure to rise above 2.3% today, shall push the yields lower to 2.2%. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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GBP/USD to continue to range trade within 1.6000-1.6200 - OCBC Bank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank sees GBP/USD trading in a range of .6000-1.6200.

 

Key Quotes

 

"Meanwhile, the GBP-USD came off intra-day highs above 1.6150 after the BOE’s Cunliffe called for caution with respect to hiking rates given the evidence of slowing UK growth coupled with darker international prospects, noting that the Bank '…can afford to maintain the current degree of monetary stimulus for a longer period than previously thought'."

 

"Note that this comes on the heels of similarly dovish or guarded sentiment expressed by the BOE’s Shafik on Monday."

 

"With BOE expectations still waning, look for the pair to continue to range trade within 1.6000-1.6200 although the pair may not be beyond reacting to any negative dollar vibes from the FOMC." 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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EUR rise likely limited to 1.2860 - UOB Group

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The Market Strategy Team at UOB Group suggests that we will see some more EUR gains today but the climb will most probably be limited to the 1.2860 level for now.

 

Key Quotes

 

"EUR broke above the strong resistant at 1.2750 reaching an overnight high of 1.2763."

 

"While further EUR strength is likely in the coming days, upward momentum is not very strong at this stage and any further rally will likely struggle to move above the recent high near 1.2860."

 

"However, only an unlikely break below the key support at 1.2640 would indicate that the prevalent upward pressure has eased." 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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AUD/USD reaches fresh 3-week high

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD pushed higher and reached its highest level in 3 weeks as the mild risk-on mood continued to support the Aussie.

 

AUD/USD stretched to a fresh high of 0.8885 but the move lacked follow-through as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. The Fed is expected to end its QE program but it is unlikely to mention a specific timeline for any eventual rate hikes.

 

AUD/USD will likely extend its consolidative path heading into the decision, with 0.8900 as next bullish target. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8880, recording a 0.32% gain on the day.

 

AUD/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, AUD/USD could find immediate resistances at 0.8885 (intraday high), 0.8898/0.8900 (Oct 9 high/psychological level) and 0.8926 (Sept 23 highs). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.8848 (Oct 29 low), 0.8793 (10-day SMA), 0.8780 (21-day SMA) and 0.8742 (Oct 22 low). 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 29, 2014

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Gold trades marginally weak

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices have weakened marginally ahead of the US opening, although not much activity is seen since the investors prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meet. 

 

Gold is trading 0.16% lower for the day at USD 1227.50/Oz levels. Moreover, prices remained consolidated in a narrow range of 1227-1230 through the entire European session today. The US Equity futures are trading marginally in the red, despite the strength in the major European equity indices. Meanwhile, the ten-year treasury yields have inched higher to 2.293%, which may have weakened the Gold prices. 

 

Gold Technical levels

 

The metal is trading in a narrow range of 1227-1230, breach of which shall open doors for 1233 levels or 1224 levels depending on which direction the prices break out. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 29, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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Focus on potential changes to Fed forward guidance statement - TD Securities

 

 

 

FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of experts note that EUR/USD is trading flat ahead of the Fed monetary policy announcement which is expected to bring the end of QE3.

 

Key quotes

 

"This FOMC meeting should mark the end of the QE3 program. However, with domestic economic growth momentum beginning to leak lower (e.g., the Atlanta Fed GDP Q3 projection stands at 2.7% q/q annualized, down from 3.2% a couple of weeks ago), and the medium term outlook for the recovery and inflation becoming less certain, there will be no incentives to appear hawkish."

 

"The key element today will be any potential changes to the forward guidance statement that would remove the reference to the fed funds rate staying at current levels for a 'considerable time after the asset purchase program ends' and make the timing for liftoff more data dependent."

 

"Market pricing currently implies a first hike would occur in October 2015. And, as price action yesterday demonstrated, the FX market in particular appears to be very sensitive to changes around Fed timing expectations."

 

"Disappointing US data saw the USD falling quite noticeable across the board, whereas both EURUSD and USDJPY had ignored domestic data releases earlier in the day."

 

"Overnight, USDJPY once again was unresponsive to a stronger-than-expected industrial production reading. The risk, however, is that the statement fails to live up to the overly dovish tone that the market may be expecting."

 

"In this case, we would expect to see USDJPY pushing higher into the high 108s, and EURUSD having a somewhat more pronounced reaction, pushing lower into the low 1.26 area." 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 29, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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Gold extends fall

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices fell tracking a rise in the US Equities as the investors brace-up for the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision due at 18:00 GMT. 

 

Gold is trading 0.37% lower for the day at USD 1224.80/Oz after having hit a low of USD 1221 post the US opening bell. The prices can under pressure as US Equities inched higher while the US Ten-year treasury yields rose to the day’s high of 2.3%. 

 

Moreover, the two-year treasury yield, a barometer of short-term interest rate expectations, has also inched higher, thereby pressurizing the Gold prices. 

 

Gold Technical levels

 

Gold has an immediate support at the daily low of 1221, under which the prices can fall to 1217 levels. On the flip side, prices may re-test 1230 levels if the metal manages to breach the intraday resistance located at 1225 levels. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Oct 29, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 

 


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