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AUD/USD breaks below 0.7300, hits 1-week lows

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - After moving near 0.7300 during hours, AUD/USD broke to the downside and dropped to 0.7282, reaching the lowest level in a week. 

 

AUD/AUD from 3-week highs to 1-week low 

 

During the Asian session the pair hit 0.7439 before turning sharply to the downside after the People Bank of China devalued the Yuan. So far, from the highs it has fallen more than 150 pips and is having the worst day in months. 

 

AUD/USD is trading slightly above the lows as it remains under pressure. The aussie is among the worst performers in the currency market. 

 

In a few minutes, after PBoC announcement, the pair erased August gains and is trading back below the level it closed on July, approaching again multi—year lows that lie at 0.7235. 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD deflates to 1.1030

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The common currency has left the area of session tops near 1.1100 the figure vs. the greenback, dragging EUR/USD back to the 1.1035/30 region.

 

EUR/USD capped by 1.1100 so far

 

The pair has managed to recover more than a big-figure after the overnight drop following the announcements by the PBoC. However, sellers have stepped in around the 1.1100 handle, prompting spot to recede some ground to the 1.1035/30 region.

 

In the data space, mixed results from the ZEW Survey in the euro area and Germany during August have lent some support to the euro during the European morning. In the same direction, news that Greece has almost secured a third bailout package has collaborated with the upbeat tone around EUR as well.

 

EUR/USD key levels

 

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.14% at 1.1034 with the next hurdle at 1.1089 (high Aug.11) ahead of 1.1113 (high Jul.31) and then 1.1129 (high Jul.27). On the downside, a break below 1.0961 (low Aug.11) would target 1.0855 (low Aug.7) en route to 1.0848 (low Aug.5). 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/CHF breaks above 1.0900, highest since SNB shocker

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/CHF broke above 1.0900 and reached its highest level since the Swiss National Bank removed the peg back on January.

 

EUR/CHF has advanced for seventh day in a row and it broke above the 200-day SMA and the 1.0900 psychological level to reach its strongest level since Jan 15 at 1.0919, as the shared currency continues to outperform following news of a bailout deal between Greece and creditors. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0905, recording a 0.64% increase on Tuesday.

 

EUR/CHF levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, EUR/CHF could find immediate resistances at 1.0919 (Aug 11 high) and 1.1000 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.0770 (Aug 11 low), 1.0758 (Aug 10 low) and 1.0705 (Aug 7 low).  

 

 

 

 

 

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CLP outlook remains neutral – BAML

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of analysts at BAML, the outlook for the Chilean peso remains neutral.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Chile is experiencing a small-scale stagflation. The economy remains stalled, but inflation has been above the target band for 13 of the past 14 month”.

 

“The green shoots observed in 4Q 2014 and January 2015, driven by stronger exports and fiscal spending, have withered, as the economy either has contracted or remained flat since February”.

 

“We now expect GDP to expand only 1.8% this year, compared to our previous expectation of 2.6%. Our forecast still embeds a good degree of optimism”.

 

“We stay neutral the Chilean peso. On the positive side, the exchange rate has adjusted to lower terms of trade and the trade balance is well into surplus. On the negative side, the economic recovery has lost momentum and copper prices are falling sharply. Uncertainty around the constitutional reform is also hampering business investment”. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/CHF rises to 0.9900

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF hit a 4-month high again, like it did last week and yesterday. Today it reached 0.9902, the strongest level since March 19. 

 

So far the pair was unable to break and rally above 0.9900 but continues to trade near the highs, as it did not pull back yet, like it did yesterday back toward 0.9830, from where is rising today. 

 

While greenback is among the best performer, the Swiss franc is the worst European performer, weakened by the agreement between Greek official and its creditors and also some analysts speculate that the Swiss National Bank could be behind the decline of the Swissy. 

 

USD/CHF near parity

 

The pair continues to move with an upside bias and getting closer to the parity level. The last time it traded above 1.000 was in April, before falling to 0.9067 (May 7 low).

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/CAD neutral near-term, bullish in the longer run – TDS

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities have reiterated their bullish stance on spot in the longer term horizon.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The big question is whether the RMB devaluation will get in the way of a Fed hike in September”.

 

“Front-end probabilities have ratcheted lower since last Friday’s payrolls where the September meeting was penciled in at about a 60% chance of a hike to about 40% now”.

 

“We do not think the events take a September hike off the table and instead it will be prudent for the Fed to see how events unfold”.

 

“We would be hesitant to chase the move lower in USDCAD and we think playing the range in USDCAD for the day ahead is appropriate, though we prefer to be neutral. Longer-term, we remain USDCAD bulls”. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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RUB could pick up pace in the upcoming months – BAML

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to analysts at BAML, the demand for the Russian currency is expected to gather further traction in the next months.

 

Key Quotes

 

“We keep our current RUB55/USD forecast unchanged for now”.

 

“Despite the likely short-term pressure from capital outflows and forced EXD deleveraging, the RUB could start receiving support from the likely reversal of massive FX positions in Russia”.

 

“As a result, Russia has been buying FX since 3Q13 and throughout 2014. Last year, this buying was rather aggressive”.

 

“According to the CBR, the Russian population and corporates bought US$30.4bn (only FX cash) in 2014, including over US$15bn in 4Q alone”.

 

“In 1Q 2015, banks and corporates actually started to sell, with net selling reaching US$2.8bn. Nevertheless, massive FX positions remain and will likely be reversed with a much weaker RUB”. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD extends gains above 1.5600

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD has pushed to fresh highs above 1.5600 early in the New York session as US traders join in to find out China weakened the yuan again on Wednesday.

 

GBP/USD managed to rise past yesterday’s highs and climbed to a 6-day peak of 1.5629 as the greenback falls across the board. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5612, recording a 0.29% gain on the day.

 

Earlier, UK reported unemployment rate stood unchanged at 5.6% in June, while average weekly earnings excluding bonus were unchanged at 2.8%YoY. The US calendar is pretty light, with JOLTS jobs opening due at 14:00 GMT (5.300M exp).

 

GBP/USD levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, GBP/USD could find next resistances at 1.5629 (Aug 12 high), 1.5650 (Aug 5 high) and 1.5700 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.5533 (Aug 12 low), 1.5500 (psychological level) and 1.5457 (Aug 10 low).  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY stages crushing decline

 

 

The 1-hour USD/JPY MACD series is sitting at extreme lows.

 

Recent plummeting USD/JPY price action has been highlighted by an above-average distance between MACD and its signal line. From a strategic standpoint, there could be further stomach-churning dips to endure, as well as brief relief rallies. The latest MACD print shows dissipation of downside momentum, thus reinforcing the second scenario. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD ready to test July highs

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD continued to rise during the American session and reached the strongest level since July 30. The pair broke above 1.5630 and climbed to 1.5659. It was trading at 1.5640, 60 pips above yesterday’s closing price. 

 

Cable erased previous losses and approached the barrier around 1.5670/80, that capped the upside during July. The last time the pair closed above 1.5670 was in June. 

 

A weak USD, offset soft UK data 

 

Greenback is falling sharply across the board and it has erased gains even against commodity currencies that dropped after another decline of the Chinese Yuan. The pound also lost ground on Asian hours, then recovered but revisited the lows after employment numbers from the United Kingdom. 

 

GBP/USD bottomed at 1.5530 and then changed the intraday trend. It accelerated to the upside after breaking above 1.5610 and it was holding a bullish tone near 1.5670. 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD firmer, clinches 1.1200

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The European currency keeps alive its march north on Wednesday, now pushing EUR/USD to test the 1.1200 handle.

 

EUR/USD in 5-week tops

 

The buying sentiment around the euro has been gathering pace since early trade today. Same as yesterday, this morning’s ‘fixing’ of the Yuan by the PBoC has prompted market participants to intensify the USD-selling, taking the greenback to 4-week lows when measured by the US Dollar Index.

 

Adding to the USD weakness, the recent moves in the Yuan have also pushed back market expectations of a Fed’s lift-off in September, which are now gyrating around 30% after rising to almost 60% pre-Payrolls on Friday.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

As of writing the pair is advancing 1.39% at 1.1196 with the next hurdle at 1.1215 (high Aug.12) ahead of 1.1244 (high Jun.30) and then 1.1278 (high Jun.29). On the downside, a break below 1.1057 (low Aug.12) would target 1.0961 (low Aug.11) en route to 1.0855 (low Aug.7). 

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY revisits highs after US retail sales

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY reacted positively and made a marginal new high following the latest string of US data which showed retail sales came in stronger than expected in July, while initial jobless claims disappointed. 

 

Retail sales leave door open for September liftoff

 

US retail sales rebounded in July, rising 0.6% from a 0.3% fall printed in June and beating expectations of a 0.5% increase. Excluding autos however, sales grew 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% of forecast.

 

Separated data showed initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 274,000 in the seven days ended August 8, more than the 270,000 expected. Import prices fell by 0.9% in July, led by lower fuel prices. 

 

USD/JPY stretched to a high of 124.59 following data, but lacked momentum to extend gains and remained little changed in the aftermath. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 124.52, up 0.26% on the day, from 124.43 pre-data.

 

USD/JPY levels to watch

 

In terms of technical levels, resistances could be found at 124.59 (Aug 13 high), 125.27 (Aug 12 high) and 125.66 (Jun 8 high). On the other hand, immediate supports are seen at 123.78 (Aug 12 low), 123.60 (50-day SMA) and 123.32 (Jul 29 low).  

 

 

 

 

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US Data reaction: GBP/USD off highs; falls to daily lows

 


FXStreet (New York) - The British Pound is currently falling against the US Dollar as the Greenback is trading higher following the latest set of economic indicators in the US. After falling 35 pips from 1.5635 in the last few minutes, the GBP/USD is now testing lows at 1.5600.

 

The US retail sales rose 0.6% in July, slightly better than the +0.5% expected. Ex-autos reported an increase of 0.4%, less than 0.5% expected but the Census Bureau reported a huge revision in ex-autos for June: from -0.1% reported initially to +0.4% informed now. 

 

Jobless claims reported 274 initial claims requested in the August 7 week. Previous week was revised 1K down to 269K. 

 

Dollar up

 

The US Dollar index is trading higher today for the first time in seven days as the DXY is extending its recovery from 96.00 area to current 96.50. As previously reported, the US Dollar index is performing an inside day as the EUR/USD is in pullback mode.

 

GBP/USD performance

 

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5603, down -0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5639 and low at 1.5600. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. 

 

GBP/USD levels

 

As for the short term, if the pair breaks down the 1.5600 level, it will find supports at 1.5560 and 1.5530. To the upside, resistances are at 1.5635, 1.5660 and 1.5680. 

  

 

 

 

 

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(Too) Early signs of rising Swedish inflation - UBS

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Swedish inflation data surprised positively on Thursday, thereby strengthening the SEK significantly. The UBS analyst team notes that even though this is good news for the Swedish Riksbank and its quantitative easing program (QE), numerous risks remain that should prevent an early retreat from easy monetary policy.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Notably, underlying inflation, excluding energy prices, rose to a five-year high at 1.5%. While this is good news for the Swedish Riksbank and its quantitative easing program (QE), numerous risks remain that should prevent an early retreat from easy monetary policy. As the US Federal Reserve approaches its first rate hike in almost a decade, higher-yielding currencies should still perform better than the SEK”.

 

“Swedish inflation expectations remain low and do not reveal much impact from QE. Furthermore, the Chinese currency devaluation should mute Swedish import prices, whose growth rate remains sluggish”. 

 

“Last but not least, the Riksbank will likely be wary of reducing its easing bias before the major Swedish wage negotiations take place around the turn of the year”.

 

“Markets seem to have positioned themselves for another rate cut. Swedish two-year bond yields have fallen into deeply negative territory, not far off from Swiss ones. As such, we see little room left for EURSEK to rise. The pairing should continue trading in a 9.10 to 9.60 range. 

 

“There is a high chance of another rate cut and an extension of the QE program at the next Riksbank monetary policy meeting on 3 September. No action would likely pull EURSEK down toward 9.20. Over a six to 12-month time horizon, it should fall closer to 9.00, as Swedish inflation trends will likely continue improving as inflation expectations recover”. 

 

 

 

 

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Gold could fade the recent spike – BBH

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at BBH believes the ounce troy of the precious metal could head back towards the $1,100 handle.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The price of gold rallied by about 5.25% off the five-year low set in late-July near $1172 an ounce to the high set earlier today. More than half this rally took place this week, seemingly in response to the heightened uncertainty as China changed its currency regime”. 

 

“In the exaggerated reaction, some market participants rushed to judgment, concluding that China's move pre-empted a Fed rate hike in September. This, coupled with the uncertainty saw gold rally. However, as cooler heads are prevailing, the price of gold may reverse”.

 

“Technically speaking, it has stopped around where it should, and that is the minimum retracement of the last leg down, which began with the June 18 peak. That retracement is found near $1123.40 and the yellow metal peaked near $1127 earlier today”.

 

“If this is correct, then gold should test $1105-$1110 in the near-term. It may take a break of $1100, which also corresponds to the 20-day moving average to convince some of the tactical bulls that the correction is over”. 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/JPY corrects lower, finds support at 138.00

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The euro is falling against the yen for the first time since the beginning of the week, making a modest correction after rising 500 pips from last week lows. 

 

EUR/JPY approached Wednesday highs during the Asian session but remained most of the time trading around 138.60. Price weakened during the European session and after the release of US economic data dropped to 138.06. 

 

EUR/JPY still above key levels

 

The bearish correction so far found support above 138.00, that also capped the decline yesterday. The pair is holding above 138.00 and also on top of two important levels: the 137.70 and an uptrend line originated at April lows. 

 

European Central Bank minutes and US data 

 

The euro weakened after the release of ECB accounts. According to the document the central bank remains ready to act if needed and argued that is soon to confirm that inflation expectations are firmly anchored. 

 

Price bottomed after the release of US reports amid a momentarily decline of EUR/USD below 1.1100 and since then is has been moving slowly off session lows. 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD off session lows as USD weakens

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Greenback lost strength across the board and pushed AUD/USD to the upside. The pair trimmed losses and rose back above 0.7350. 

 

The aussie is still trading below yesterday’s closing price. On Wednesday it rallied from 0.7230 to 0.7405. After being unable to hold above 0.7400 pulled back. 

 

The retreated from the highs continued during today’s Asian session and AUD/USD bottomed at 0.7320. After Wall Street opening bell turned to the upside and rose above the hourly 20-SMA. Recently reached 0.7365 and currently trades at 0.7355. 

 

AUD/USD to remain sideways? 

 

The pair is back to last week trading range after yesterday’s slide. The long term trend remains bearish while in the short term is moving sideways. A consolidation considerable above 0.7400 should increase the odds of a bullish correction. While below 0.7230, greenback could gain momentum. 

 

 

 

 

 

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WTI drops to the $42.00 area

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Crude oil prices have accelerated its decline on Thursday, dragging the barrel of West Texas Intermediate to the vicinity of the $42.00 mark.

 

WTI in fresh multi-year lows

 

The re-emergence of the bid tone around the US dollar has been weighing on crude oil prices since early trade today, sending the barrel of WTI to print fresh lows around the $42.00 handle, levels last seen in March 2009.

 

Collaborating with the downside, US retail sales surpassed expectations during July, pointing to a healthy increase in consumer spending and somehow leaving the door open for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month. 

 

WTI levels to watch

 

At the moment WTI is losing 2.61% at $42.19 with the next support at $42.07 (low Aug.13) followed by $40.07 (monthly low March 2009) ahead of $34.03 (monthly low February 2009) and then $30.28 (monthly low December 2008). On the flip side, a break above $46.94 (high Aug.3) would aim for $48.62 (high Jul.31) and finally $49.52 (high Jul.29). 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/CAD outlook remains neutral to bearish – Scotiabank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Eric Theoret, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, noted the neutral-to-bearish stance around the pair in the near term.

 

Key Quotes

 

“CAD remains sensitive to its core drivers of relative policy and oil prices, the former providing for most of the recent CAD strength through a week in which markets have reassessed the Fed path in light of China as well as the softened tone from both Fed Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley”.

 

“CAD is trading in tandem with the 2Y U.S.-Canada yield spread, having broken its tight correlation to oil prices over the past week”.

 

“Near term risk lies with the U.S. releases and their influence on expectations for the Fed path—providing for a tightened focus on the U.S. import price and retail sales figures”.

 

“The MACD is increasingly biased to further downside and the RSI is threatening a near term break below 50. USDCAD has made a material break of its short term MA’s, closing well below its 21 day MA for the first time since late June”.

 

“Near term support is expected between 1.2920 and 1.2950, the levels closely representing the real body of the July 29 hammer doji. The 1.3000 will remain psychologically important and we look to near term resistance at 1.3100 with gains likely to be restrained above 1.3150”. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD rises to daily highs after US sentiment data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD pushed higher and printed fresh daily highs above 1.5650 as disappointing consumer sentiment data offset a better-than-expected US PPI reading.

 

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 92.9 in August, according to a preliminary reading, versus 93.5 expected.

 

GBP/USD extended intraday gains and posted a high of 1.5656 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.5649, recording a 0.26% rise on Friday.

 

In the absence of economic data for the rest of the session and with Chinese volatility having decreased significantly today, investors’ attention now turns to events that could shed light over a potential Fed hike in September.

 

GBP/USD levels to watch 

 

In terms of technical levels, GBP/USD could find next resistances at 1.5656/58 (Aug 14 & 12 high), and 1.5700 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.5588 (Aug 14 low), 1.5573 (Aug 13 low) and 1.5533 (Aug 12 low). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Chinese Yuan firmer after initial havoc this week - Rabobank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that for the first time since November the CNY yesterday traded above the PBoC’s daily fixing. 

 

Key Quotes:

 

"Following the sharp move lower in the previous couple of sessions, the more stable tone of the Chinese currency offered some reassurances to investors and policy makers across the globe. The better tone of the CNY followed a statement from the PBoC that there is no basis for the depreciation of the CNY to persist and that policy makers will step in to control large fluctuations. 

 

While there sheer size of China’s foreign currency reserves gives credence to the statement that the authorities won’t stand by while the value of CNY plunges uncontrollably, weak economic data suggests that it is more difficult to swallow the PBoC’s reassurances that there is no basis for the depreciation of the CNY to persist. 

 

Now that the Chinese authorities have allowed market forces to have greater sway over the value of the CNY, there is risk of further downside pressure on the CNY. Therefore, there is still every reason to suspect that a currency war of some description will remain in play in the region." 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 14,2015

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EUR/GBP sell on strength – Rabobank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, sees occasional bullish attempts in EUR/GBP as opportunities to sell.

 

Key Quotes

 

“While uncertainties over the implications of Chinese and Fed policy could be sufficient to steady the hands of some of the MPC hawks in September, it seems very likely that at least three members of the MPC will be voting for an immediate rate hike by the end of the year (Miles will be replaced in September by Gertjan Vlieghe, whose position on the hawk/dove scale is not yet clear)”.

 

“That said, the BoE this month revised down its inflation forecasts and in view of weak commodity prices the market is expecting the tomorrow’s release of July CPI inflation to remains flat y/y”.

 

“Weak inflation could disappoint the sterling bulls, but with a policy tightening from the Bank likely to precede a move by all other major central banks aside from the Fed, we continue to favour selling EUR/GBP on rallies and look for a move towards 0.68 on a 9 mth view”. 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 17,2015

OctaFX.Com News Updates

 

 


 

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