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EU finance ministers agree on bridge loan for Greece from EFSM

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EU finance ministers have agreed on € 7 billion bridge loan for Greece from the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM), according to EU Juncker.

 

European Commission's Valdis Dombrovskis tweeted @VDombrovskis “There is an agreement in principle on EFSM-based #bridgefinancing for #Greece, procedure to be finalised by tomorrow at noon. #ECOFIN” 

 

 

 

   

 

 

July 16,2015

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GBP/USD recovers above 1.56

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair recovered from the low of 1.5560 to trade above 1.56 levels, largely mimicking the moves witnessed in the EUR/USD pair. 

 

Trades around 23.6% Fib of Apr-June rally

 

The pair is hovering around 1.5607, which is the 23.6% fib retracement of the Apr-June rally. The pair moved largely in line with the movement seen in the EUR/USD pair during the ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference. Moreover, the spot ignored the Us initial jobless claims, which printed below 300K for the 19th consecutive session. 

 

Meanwhile, a weaker-than-expected Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey also weakened the bid tone on the US dollar somewhat. 

 

GBP/USD Technical Levels

 

The immediate support is seen at 1.56, under which the spot could target 1.5550 (50% Fib of June rally). On the other hand, resistance is seen at 1.5638 (38.2% Fib R of June rally) and 1.57 levels. 

 

 

 

   

 

 

July 16,2015

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GBP/USD drops below 1.56

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair has extended losses to trade around 1.5590 after the German Bundestag approved new Greek bailout negotiations helped the EUR/GBP recover losses. 

 

Cross driven weakness

 

The drop below 1.56 is largely due to the recovery seen in the EUR/GBP cross from the low of 0.6943 to trade at 0.6980. The uptick in the cross was driven by the Bundestag’s approval of start of new debt negotiations for a new Greek bailout. 

 

Ahead in the day, the spot could extend losses in case the data in the US shows CPI ticked higher as expected in June. The investors shall also watch out for housing reports and Fed vice chair Fischer speech. 

 

GBP/USD Technical Levels

 

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.5607 (23.6% Fib R of Apr-Jun rally) and 1.5638 (38.2% Fib R of June rally). On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5560 (50-DMA) and 1.54 handle.  

 

 

 

   

 

 

July 17,2015

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US CPI rises 0.1% as expected in June

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The official data released in the US on Friday showed the inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% in June, matching the estimate of a 0.1% rise. CPI had stalled in May. Month-on-Month, the CPI rose 0.3% in June, compared to a 0.4% rise seen in May. 

 

Core CPI ticks higher in June

 

The cost of living in the US excluding food and fuel ticked higher in June, a sign inflation may be inching towards the Federal Reserve’s goal.

 

Core CPI rose 1.8.% year-on-year in June, matching the estimate of a 1.8% rise. The previous month’s print stood at 1.7%. Month-on-month core CPI rose 0.2% as expected.

 

About two-thirds of the increase in the core rate was caused by rising rents. Rents of primary residences climbed 0.4%, the most since August 2013. 

 

 

   

 

 

July 17,2015

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Gold drops to 2015 low

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices dropped to the 2015 low of USD 1136.66/Oz as the USD index strengthened after the data in the US showed core CPI ticked higher in June. 

 

Approaching Nov 2014 low

 

The metal has taken out the previous 2015 low at USD 1142.59 and is fast approaching the Nov 2014 low of USD 1130.10/Oz. The selling pressure strengthened after the official data in the US showed core CPI rose 1.8.% year-on-year in June. Furthermore, the housing starts beat estimates and Building permits for single and multifamily properties, a gauge of future construction, climbed to an almost eight-year high. 

 

Consequently, the metal took a hit on increased bets of interest rate hike in 2015. However, despite of a positive data, the treasury yields at the short-end of the curve, which mimic interest rate expectations, have not been able to tick higher. 

 

Gold Technical Levels

 

The immediate support is seen at 1130.10 (Nov 2014 low), under which the pair could target the psychological level of 1100. On the other hand, immediate resistance is located at 1142.59 (Mar 2015 low) and 1150.00. 

 

 

 

   

 

 

July 17,2015

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EUR/GBP: Bears breaking six year channel's base - CB

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that EUR/GBP has sold off to the base of the base of a 6 year channel at 0.6967, there has been a minor erosion of this. 

 

Key Quotes:

 

"The intraday momentum indicators are showing oversold and very near term we would allow for a small rebound."

 

"TD support comes in at 0.6940, the Elliott wave count at 0.6920 on the 240 minute, both imply that the downside is limited at this juncture and we would prefer to sell the rallies. Rebounds are currently indicated to terminate .7065."

 

"The base of the 0.6967 6 year down channel was our medium downside target and it is possible that it will again hold. This is the break down point to the 0.6571/41 the 2007 low." 

 

 

   

 

 

July 17,2015

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NZD/USD lurched lower and hesitated

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - A harami cross pattern unfolded on the NZD/USD daily chart turning the intermediate trend from bearish to neutral.

 

The pattern occurs within the context of deteriorating prices unfolding with the daily stochastic (14,3,3) tracking below 20. From here on, this oscillator could easily react with any future close near the highs, especially since yesterday's trading range formed a doji line on the chart. Highlighting the lack of trendiness is the 1-hour ADX indicator which dipped below 30 in today's trading. 

 

Note the harami cross is considered a more potent reversal than the regular harami. 

 

 

   

 

 

July 18,2015

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Markets vigilant on Greek banks – Deutsche Bank

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst at Deutsche Bank Jim Reid noted the relevance of today’s re-opening of the Greek banks.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Talking of Greece, the banks re-open today for the first time in three weeks”. 

 

“Greece is unlikely to be a huge macro influence now for a couple of months but events like this are certainly worth keeping an eye on to assess the likelihood of future progress or lack of it”.

 

“Aside from the banks we also heard from German Chancellor Merkel who suggested that it would be possible to discuss Greek debt relief through extending maturities once the ESM deal has been negotiated, but she once again reiterated the ruling out of any haircuts”.

 

“Merkel also dismissed any suggestions of a dispute with German Finance Minister Schaeuble who had said in a Der Spiegel interview over the weekend that the two had differences, although he downplayed any talks of a potential resignation”.

 

“Meanwhile, late on Friday we also saw Greek PM Tsipras announce a cabinet reshuffle as largely expected, replacing various members of the Syriza party who had previously opposed the proposals at the parliamentary vote last week, including the more outspoken Left Platform faction leader Lafazanis”. 

 

   

 

 

July 20,2015

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BoE still expected to hike sooner than later – Societe Generale

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Kit Juckes, Strategist at Societe Generale, sees the ‘Old Lady’ getting ready to raise its rates.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The BOE MPC Minutes on Wednesday are probably the highlight of the UK calendar, after the clear turn in the rhetoric from MOPC members in recent days”. 

 

“The Bank of England is preparing the ground for a rate hike, though not imminently”. 

 

“EUR/GBP RSIs, like those in other pairs, are beginning to look a bit stretched after the acceleration down after the break of 0.70, but we’d still look for one final slide lower before the correction”. 

 

 

   

 

 

July 20,2015

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Gold now accounts for nearly 1.7% of China's total forex reserves

 


FXStreet (Mumbai) - China's gold reserves stood at more than 1,600 tons at the end of June, up 57% from six years ago; which is 1.7% of China’s total forex reserves. 

 

China is now the world's sixth largest official sector gold holder after the US, Germany, the IMF, Italy and France. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is of the view that investment in Gold would be beneficial for risk management. An increase of more than 600 tons of gold would help guarantee the security, liquidity and value of China's international reserves, the PBOC said. 

 

 

   

 

 

July 20,2015

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EUR/USD another attempt to 1.0850

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The common currency keeps its gains vs. the US dollar so far, taking EUR/USD to the mid-1.0800s.

 

EUR/USD keeps the attention to Greece

 

Spot meanders within the daily range so far, keeping an eye on the Greek front, where the stock markets will remain closed until July 22nd. In the meantime, news that Greece have paid to the ECB (€4.2 billion), IMF (€2.05 billion) and the Bank of Greece (€0.5 million) seems to have somewhat supported the euro in an otherwise flat markets.

 

EUR/USD levels to watch

 

At the moment the pair is up 0.12% at 1.0843 with the next resistance at 1.0866 (high Jul.20) followed by 1.1036 (high Jul.15) and then 1.1086 (high Jul.14). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0819 (low May 27) would target 1.0789 (low Apr.25) en route to 1.0666 (low Apr.24). 

 

 

   

 

 

July 20,2015

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Buy the dips in USD/CAD, targets 1.3300 – TDS

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of strategists at TD Securities, pullbacks in the pair remain buying opportunities for a test of the 1.33 handle.

 

Key Quotes

 

“So, until the next major event risk we suggest looking at better levels to get long”. 

 

“Dips will most likely be bought towards the 1.2950 area. Note that funds is trading above our daily fair value estimate of 1.2910”.

 

“We will likely need to see a break through 1.3010 before opening significant upside potential to 1.3065”.

 

“From there, we look for 1.3250/1.3300 as the next major level but as we noted above we think that will require a strong indication from the Fed that it will begin tightening by September”. 

 

 

 

   

 

 

July 20,2015

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RBNZ could ease further – RBS

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - FX Strategist Greg Gibbs sees the RBNZ lowering further its benchmark rate this week.

 

Key Quotes

 

“After last week’s soft CPI data and weak milk auction, a 25bp rate cut from the RBNZ this week looks extremely likely”.

 

“The market agrees and has it priced in (56bp of cuts over the coming year). We also expect the central bank to leave unchanged its assessment that “further significant downward adjustment is justified” for the exchange rate”.

 

“The market may baulk at selling the NZD near its lows since 2009 after a relatively rapid fall in recent months, but this fall is in-line with the lower interest rates and lower commodity prices, and risk is biased towards further falls in coming weeks in our view”.

 

“It appears likely on track to reach down to around more significant longer term support near .60/.61”. 

 

 

 

  

 

July 20,2015

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USD/CAD points to 1.35 in the medium term – Westpac

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of strategists at Westpac, the pair could reach the 1.35 area in a 3 to 6-month horizon.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Long held view that the Canadian economy will underwhelm and force the BoC into fresh easing finally a reality”.

 

“The proximity of the zero bound limits the extent of easing but strictly speaking the Bank could (and should eventually) cut once again, taking interest rates back to their credit crunch emergency setting at 0.25%”.

 

“The BoC’s latest forecasts incorporate the known contraction in Q2 but their forecasts for 1.5% annualised growth in Q3 and 2.5% in Q4 remain on the optimistic side”.

 

“USD/CAD 1.35 very achievable on a 3-6 month horizon”.

 

“The medium term/long term momentum / trend structure remains positive and indicative of a sustainable rally. 10 year highs are an obstacle up to 1.3065 that should be overcome in time”. 

 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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USD/CHF supported at 0.9605

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Swiss franc continues to outperform its US counterpart in the European session, as the CHF bulls ride higher on the wave of widening trade balance which surprised on the upside. While profit-taking on USD longs also added to the downslide in USD/CHF.

 

USD/CHF falls further from 0.9633

 

Currently, the USD/CHF pair trades -0.33% lower at 0.9615, retreating slightly from 0.9605 session lows. The USD/CHF pair extended losses this session as the Swiss currency continued to remain supported on better than expected Switzerland’s trade data. 

 

Switzerland's trade surplus widened in June according to the latest report released on Tuesday. The trade surplus amounted to ₣3.58 billion in the reported month, compared with a revised ₣3.41 billion registered in the previous month. Market had projected a ₣2.80 billion surplus in June. 

 

Adding to the losses in USD/CHF, the US dollar remains broadly sold-off on a profit-booking spree after the recent strength backed by hawkish comments from the Fed officials.

 

USD/CHF Technical Levels

 

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.9658 (July 20 High) levels and above which it could extend gains 0.9700 levels. To the downside, immediate support might be located at 0.9595 (July 20 Low) levels and below that at 0.9551 (July 17 Low) levels. 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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Go long USD/CAD on dips towards 1.2900/1.2950 – TDS

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The FX Strategy team at TD Securities recommended buying spot on pullbacks towards the 1.2950/1.2900 area.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Next week’s FOMC meeting and Q2 GDP release offers a potential catalyst to push USDCAD higher”.

 

“Since the Greek rescue deal was tabled, the Fed has become incrementally more hawkish”.

 

“If the Fed is moving towards a September hike, then there is a plausible risk that next week’s meeting could contain some potential fireworks”.

 

“Until then however, we do not see much scope for USDCAD to rally further this week”.

 

“Instead, we see a risk of a pullback especially if the retail sales data is stronger than consensus (as we anticipate)”.

 

“In such a circumstance, we think investors may look to enter USDCAD longs around the 1.2900/1.2950 level”. 

 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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Trendiness bounced back sharply in G-10 FX space – Deutsche bank

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - As per the Deutsche bank research note, Trendiness – defined as the strength of a currency trend;has bounced back sharply in the G10 FX space over the past two weeks, almost entirely driven by the three commodity currencies.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Uniformity - defined as the extent to which exchange rates all move in the same direction, has declined to the lowest level since February, while realized volatility subsided, particularly in EUR/USD. Overall, market conditions have improved over the past fortnight.”

 

“Trendiness in the dollar bloc reflects the sharp re-pricing of monetary policy in Canada, the UK, and New Zealand in particular. High carry in the latter and Australia has been no barrier to FX weakness. Macro drivers have been only weakly correlated to the price action as monetary policy dominates the G10 universe.” 

 

 

 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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Greek twists and turns - BBH

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - It is possible, and even likely, that Syriza returns to government in a new election. 

 

Key Quotes:

 

"A newspaper poll put Syriza's support at 42.5%, nearly twice the support of New Democracy, which is in second place at 21.5%. "

 

"However, the problem with an election is that it may delay the formal review of Greece's actual implementation of the measures it has promised."

 

"That in turn would delay the debt relief that now even Merkel has accepted as necessary and inevitable." 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

July 21,2015

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