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Investors keep scaling back EUR shorts – Rabobank

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Market Strategist Christian Lawrence at Rabobank assessed the performance of EUR and USD according to the last positioning report.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Net EUR shorts dropped heavily again last week. This is consistent with the better tone of the EUR in the spot market and suggestive of investors unwinding carry trades as concerns about Chinese growth hit hard”.

 

“Net USD longs continue to decline. Although expectations of a rate hike have been fluctuating between September and December a growing minority have been calling for a later move in 2016”.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 01,2015

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EUR/USD gravitates around 1.1250

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD has continued to trade well-within its daily range, unable to set short-term direction and uninspired by the latest series of mixed US data as investors gear up for the ECB meeting on Thursday and the nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

 

EUR/USD peaked at 1.1330 during the European session but faced selling pressure at the 200-hour SMA and slid all the way back to 1.1230. The pair has spent the last hours in a range around 1.1250 and it was last trading at 1.1253, still 0.39% above its opening price.

 

Mixed US data fails to drive the dollar

 

On the data front, the ISM PMI showed August manufacturing activity expanded at its slowest pace in more than 2 years (51.1 versus 52.6 expected), while July construction spending rose 0.7% to the highest level since May 2008.

 

EUR/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, on the upside next resistances are seen at 1.1298/1.1300 (200-day SMA/psychological level), 1.1331 (Sep 1 high) and 1.1364 (Aug 27 high). On the downside, supports could be faced at 1.1207 (Sep 1 low), 1.1157/55 (21-day SMA/Aug 28 low). 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 01,2015

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EUR/USD around 1.1240 on US data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bouncing off session troughs near 1.1220, EUR/USD has managed to advance towards the 1.1240/45 area so far.

 

EUR/USD indifferent to US releases

 

The pair paid little to none attention to US Factory Orders, expanding at a monthly pace of 0.4% vs. expectations for a 0.9% advance. Orders excluding the Transportation sector have contracted 0.6% inter-month, down from the previous 0.6% gain.

 

Today’s US docket passed largely unnoticed amongst traders, who remain more concentrated in tomorrow’s ECB meeting and Friday’s Payrolls (220K exp.).

 

EUR/USD key levels

 

At the moment the pair is losing 0.69% at 1.1235 with the immediate support at 1.1226 (low Sep.2) followed by 1.1207 (low Sep.1) and then 1.1170 (low Aug.31). On the other hand, a break above 1.1320 (high Sep.2) would open the door to 1.1333 (high Sep.1) and finally 1.1364 (high Aug.27). 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 02,2015

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US: Nonfarm payroll preview – Nomura

 

 

 

FXStreet (Delhi) – Analyst at Nomura, expect the US Nonfarm payrolls to print another 200k plus figure in August and unemployment rate to extend its decline.

 

Key Quotes

 

“With the labor market nearing “full employment,” another solid reading near our expectations should keep the FOMC on track to raise interest rates this year. But with core inflation losing some upward momentum in recent months and “some” FOMC participants raising concerns about the inflation outlook, we believe that the Committee will want more evidence that inflation is moving in the right direction before raising interest rates, supporting our call for liftoff in December.”

 

“The recent volatility in financial markets has placed additional uncertainty on the path of policy. As such, we currently believe that the evolution of financial conditions will have a bigger influence on the FOMC’s decision at its September meeting than another steady reading from the employment report on Friday.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 03,2015

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US labour market expected to remain solid – BTMU

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Currency Strategist at BTMU Lee Hardman has assessed the recent results from the US labour market as well as the prospects for tomorrow’s Payrolls.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The release of the latest ADP survey yesterday revealed that the US economy added 190k private sector jobs in August. The reading was a little weaker than consensus expectations but broadly in line with the average reading so far this year of 196k”.

 

“At face value the survey is signalling that the US labour market has likely continued to improve which is one of the conditions that the Fed has set to begin raising interest rates”.

 

“However, the release of the non-farm payrolls report on Friday still presents some downside risks”.

 

“A weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report could initially weigh modestly on the US dollar although it would most likely be seen as under-reporting employment growth”.

 

“The release yesterday of the Fed’s latest Beige Book revealed further evidence of tightening labour market conditions. “Several districts reported increasing wage pressures caused by labour market tightening”, although it suggests wage growth remained sluggish nationally”. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 03,2015

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USD/JPY wavers after US nonfarm payrolls

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY oscillated sharply in the minutes that followed the release of the so-awaited US employment report, which showed US economy created fewer jobs than expected in August.

 

US nonfarm payrolls came in at 173K in August down from 245K the previous month and below the 220K expected. The unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% versus 5.2% expected.

 

USD/JPY reacted negatively and hit a low of 118.60 before quickly bouncing to 119.61 only to return to the 119.00 zone. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 119.07, still 0.81% below its opening price. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 04,2015

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AUD/USD hits fresh 6-year lows after US NFP

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD extended losses and scored fresh 6-year lows following the release of the US employment report as the greenback managed to benefit from it.

 

US nonfarm payrolls came in at 173K in August down from 245K the previous month and below the 220K expected. However, the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% from 5.3% in July and against the 5.2% expected.

 

The nonfarm payroll report was the last major indicator before the Federal Reserve September 16-17 meeting, when some are still expecting the Fed to raise rates for first time since 2006.

 

AUD/USD moved down to a low of 0.6927, last seen March 2009, and it was last trading at 0.6945, 1.04% below its opening price and on track to post its fourth weekly loss in a row. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 04,2015

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US NFP: Mixed bag with no impetus to Fed for lift-off - ING

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Delhi) – Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, notes that the US labour report was a mixed back and was not sufficiently strong enough for the Fed to proceed with its September lift-off plans. There were no signs of surge in payrolls to back up falls in the unemployment rate and rising wages.

 

Key Quotes

 

“The softest part of the survey was the payrolls headline itself. At +173K, it is clearly at the lower end of recent trends, though there were decent upwards revisions to the previous two months, adding 44K to the running total, and this August number itself is prone to substantial upward revisions, so even this is not as bad as it looks.”

 

“But there were soft spots too. Manufacturing payrolls fell 17K on the month. Private employment creation was only 140K, and the numbers would have been much worse without an outsize 33K rise in government employment, driven by state and local government.”

 

“But there was, as is so often the case, a different story coming from the household survey, which showed the unemployment rate falling by more than expected to 5.1% - the lowest since April 2008. This was, however, mainly a function of a 41K fall in the labour force, and falling labour participation.”

 

“On top of this, wages growth was slightly stronger, at 0.3%mom, taking the annual rate of wage inflation up to 2.2%, with a rare upward revision to the July figures, which are also shown up at 2.2% YoY now.” 

 

“This is still pretty weak though, and the Fed may like to see confirmation with a second decent rise in wages before concluding that something positive is really happening here.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 04,2015

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EUR/USD wobbles around 1.1100

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The offered tone remains intact around the single currency on Friday, with EUR/USD now hovering over the 1.1100 neighbourhood.

 

EUR/USD capped by 1.1200

 

The pair has quickly faded the ephemeral test of the boundaries of 1.1200 the figure in the wake of the US labour market data, although the bullish attempt lost momentum and reverted to test sub-1.1100 levels.

 

US labour market continues to outperform, as seen by the lower jobless rate despite the miss in Payrolls, although it remains to be seen whether today’s results are enough for the Fed to announce the normalization of its monetary policy at this month’s meeting. 

 

EUR/USD key levels

 

At the moment the pair is losing 0.14% at 1.1107 with the immediate support at 1.1057 (low Aug.12) ahead of 1.1017 (low Aug.20) and finally 1.1000 (psychological level). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1294 (high Sep.2) would target 1.1320 (high Sep.2) en route to 1.1333 (high Sep.1). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 04,2015

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EUR shorts keep scaling back – Rabobank

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, reviewed the last report on net speculators’ positioning.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Having dropped sharply the previous week net EUR shorts increased modestly suggesting that the recent aggressive unwind of EUR short positions may be running out of steam”.

 

“Net USD longs have edged lower having dropped more sharply the previous week. Expectations of a September Fed rate hike have been pared significantly over the past month although a robust set of August Labour data may lend the USD support this week”. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 07,2015

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Australia: Aug business confidence deteriorates, conditions edge up

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Bali) - Business conditions in Australia improves during the August period, to 11 from 6 in July, while business confidence receded further, coming at 1 vs 4 in July.

 

James Glenn, Senior Economist at NAB

 

"Business conditions point to a further improvement in the non-mining economy, even as jitters in financial markets weigh on confidence. The conditions index jumped 5 points to +11 in August, after losing a little ground last month, lifting the trend index to its highest level since late 2009. By component, both trading conditions and profitability recorded a notable improvement, but the employment index remains at very subdued levels. 

 

"This outcome adds to the mounting evidence that AUD depreciation and record low interest rates are having the desired effect and helping to offset the weakness in mining. Even so, outcomes vary significantly by industry. Services sectors continue to outperform, while retail has improved considerably. The ‘bellwether’ wholesale industry remains weak, but probably reflects margin squeeze due to AUD depreciation as other leading indicators (aggregate forward orders and capacity utilisation) have improved."

 

"Confidence pared back further in August (from +4 to +1), unwinding the post budget gains and hitting its lowest level since mid-2013. While confidence tends to track conditions quite closely, recent financial market ructions and China growth concerns appear to have had an unnerving effect on business – albeit not enough to send confidence into negative territory (a good outcome given the degree of market volatility). Confidence eased in most industries, although mining and construction recovered some of last month’s sharp declines." 

 

 

 

Sep 08,2015

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Westpac cuts AUD/USD year-end forecast to 0.66 from 0.70

 

 

 

 

FXStreet (Bali) - Westpac cuts AUD/USD year-end forecast to 0.66 from 0.70, with Westpac chief economist Bill Evans noting that "doesn't expect confidence "vibe" around AUD to improve for remainder of this year."

 

Additional headlines - Bloomberg

 

Negative market perceptions around China and Australia's trade exposure to China are likely to persist

 

Sees EM woes continuing

 

Financial markets remaining volatile 

 

 

 

Sep 08,2015

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China trade data spooks Asia, German trade balance, EZ GDP – Up next

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The safe haven assets such as yen, euro, gold, Swiss franc etc. were caught by fresh bid waves as the latest Chinese trade figures added to the persisting negative sentiment surrounding China’s economy, dampening investors’ sentiment.

 

Key headlines in Asia

 




 


 

Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

 

A volatile Asian session with Chinese equities extending their sell-off from Monday as a renewed wave of risk-aversion caught the markets following the release of weak Chinese trade figures.

 

The Japanese yen erased losses and swung higher versus the US dollar as risk-off sentiment gained momentum amid falling Chinese stocks post the dismal Chinese economic news which revealed that although the country’s surplus widened, the exports and imports remained weak. USD/JPY dropped sharply lower below 119 handle.

 

While the Antipodeans seem to be unaffected by the ongoing risk-off trades as the Australian dollar remains lifted on the back of improved business conditions. National Australia Bank's (NAB) Business Conditions Index surged from 6 in July to 11 last month, the strongest reading since October, where a reading above zero signals an improvement in conditions.

 

While the Kiwi also tracks the Aussie higher and rebounds from fresh six and a half year lows, still keeping range below 0.63 handle as markets remain cautious ahead of Chinese CPI and RBNZ cash rate statement due later this week for further direction. While an upward revision to the NZ CPI data also supports the NZD/USD pair.

 

Meanwhile, the sell-off in the Asian indices extends as Chinese equities led other Asian markets lower post China data with the Japan’s benchmark index, the Nikkei dropping -1.72% at 17550. While the Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index trades -0.25% down at 20,546 and the Shanghai Composite keeps falling and now trades -1.38% lower at 3038. While Korea's benchmark Kospi index trades -0.70% at 1,870 points in Seoul. However, the benchmark Australian S&P/ASX 200 bucked the trend and rallies over 1% to 5,089. 

 

Heading into Europe - centered on EUR, GBP

 

The coming week will be occupied by waiting for these events, as the glimpse on the macro calendar reveals only some low-profile prints.

 

In the session ahead, Germany will reveal its July current account figures and the headline gauge is projected to decrease to €21.5 billion, down from the €24.4 billion seen previously. Both exports and imports are projected to show stronger figures - 1.4% and 0.5% growth month-on-month respectively, up from the 1.0% and 0.5% dip seen in June.

 

Later in the day, Eurostat will show its final Q2 GDP data. The preliminary figures missed estimates, as they said that the 19-country euro area grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period for a 1.2% growth year-on-year. 

 

Looking ahead, the US calendar also remains data-light with the 2nd tier release in the labor market conditions index to be reported. 

 

All of these prints, however, are of lesser significance and most likely won't cause any major reaction on the markets. 

 

 

Sep 08,2015

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USD/CHF retracement toward 0.9540 looks likely – SG

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to technical analysts from Societe Generale, the USD/CHF is undergoing a consolidation within a triangle, the upper limit of the formation at 0.99 - 1.00 is likely to provide resistance and from there a retracement looks likely towards 0.9540 and even towards 0.9260. 

 

Key Quotes:

 

“The USD/CHF has been undergoing consolidation since March within a pattern similar to a triangle (current limits at 0.99/1.00 and 0.9260).The pair is approaching the upper limit which also corresponds to a multiyear descending trend resistance (log scale). “

 

“With the daily stochastic indicator approaching resistance levels, 0.99/1.00 is likely to be a key level. Only a sustained move higher will mean an extension in uptrend. Once these levels are achieved, a retracement looks more likely initially towards 0.9540 and even the lower limit at 0.9260.”   

 

 

Sep 11,2015

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AUD/USD upside running into tough resistance

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has scored some space above the 50 SMA at 0.7065 and is looking for a close in positive territory for the week, having made highs yesterday at 0.7099.

 

AUD/USD has staged a minor recovery on the start of the month's downtrend and lows that were down to test the resilience of the bulls at the 0.69 handle. The Australian jobs data and Chinese CPI's supported the Aussie towards the end of the week after a spell of disappointments for the Australian economy over the past few weeks having gained about 2% and ostensibly helped by the stabilization of Chinese markets and higher copper and iron ore prices, as noted by analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.

 

AUD/USD rallies to find tough resistance at 0.7191

 

Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD is near term upside corrective and currently we would allow for a near term move higher to approximately 0.7165 (intraday Elliott count). "Rallies are expected to remain capped by the 0.7191 4 month downtrend and 0.7205 (last weeks high). The market will need to overcome the 0.7448 July 21 high in order to negate downside pressure longer term. Below 0.6980 will retarget the 0.6905 recent low and then 0.6774 the 2004 low longer term." 

 

 

 

Sep 11,2015

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EUR/USD off highs, eases to 1.1340

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD has faded the spike to multi-day tops in the vicinity of 1.1380 on Monday, now returning to the 1.1345/40 band. 

 

EUR/USD propped up by risk aversion

 

Spot is extending its bullish momentum from last Friday, quickly advancing towards the upper-1.1300s while remains sustained by the Chinese-led risk aversion sentiment dominating the global markets so far.

 

Nothing worth noting data wise in Euroland, with Italian inflation figures and EMU’s Industrial Production, both in the pipeline later on in the day.

 

EUR/USD key levels

 

The pair is advancing 0.05% at 1.1341 facing the next hurdle at 1.1374 (high Sep.14) followed by 1.1498 (high Aug.23) and finally 1.1523 (high Aug.27). On the other hand, a breach of 1.1327 (low Sep.14) would target 1.1253 (low Sep.11) en route to 1.1147 (low Sep.9). 

 

 

 

Sep 14,2015

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EUR/USD muted post-EMU data

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency remained apathetic after EMU releases on Monday, with EUR/USD keeping the trade around the 1.1330 area.

 

EUR/USD indifferent on data

 

The pair paid no attention to the better-than-expected Industrial Production figures in the euro bloc during July, expanding at a monthly pace of 0.6% and taking the annual expansion to 1.9% vs. initial estimates at 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively.

 

Spot has surrendered initial gains to the boundaries of 1.1380 and is now visiting session lows around 1.1330 as risk-off trends seem to be losing momentum. Further releases in the region saw Italian consumer prices rising 0.2% MoM and 0.2% YoY during the last month.

 

EUR/USD key levels

 

The pair is retreating 0.04% at 1.1331 and a breach of 1.1327 (low Sep.14) would target 1.1253 (low Sep.11) en route to 1.1147 (low Sep.9). On the other hand, the next hurdle lines up at 1.1374 (high Sep.14) followed by 1.1498 (high Aug.23) and finally 1.1523 (high Aug.27). 

 

 

 

 

Sep 14,2015

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GBP/USD next target aligns at 1.5492 – BBH

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at BBH signalled the next target for GBP/USD could be around the 1.5492 level.

 

Key Quotes

 

“It tested the 20-day moving average (~$1.5465). It too has retraced a little more than 38.2% o the losses from the last August spike (~$1.5420) and the early September low (~$1.5165)”.

 

“The next objective (50% retracement) is just above $1.5492. The 50- and 100-day moving averages around found in the $1.5515-$1.5525 range”.

 

“Soft inflation and retail sales data may be mitigated by an uptick in average weekly earnings and a generally healthy labor market report. However, if the $1.5340 level goes, sterling may retest its recent lows”. 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 14,2015

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UK annualised CPI stalls in August

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday showed the UK annualised CPI in August stalled as expected, compared to the 0.1% rise seen in July.

 

Month-on-month, the CPI printed in line with the estimates at 0.2%, compared to the 0.2% drop seen in July. Core inflation dropped to 1.0% year-on-year as estimated. 

 

As per the ONS report, “A smaller rise in clothing prices on the month compared with a year ago was the main contributor to the slight fall in the rate. There were also downward effects from changes in motor fuel prices and sea fares. Rising prices for soft drinks and for furniture and furnishings partially offset the fall.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 15,2015

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EUR/CHF losing altitude, near 1.0970

 

 

 

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Swiss franc is now reclaiming some of the ground lost to the single currency during the Asian trading hours, taking EUR/CHF to the 1.0970 area.

 

EUR/CHF upside capped at 1.1000

 

The upside momentum in the cross seen overnight has found tough resistance around the psychological barrier at 1.1000 today, triggering the current correction lower ahead of the opening bell in Euroland.

 

Data wise in the region, Swiss ZEW Survey-Expectations is due later, followed by the final CPI figures in the euro area during last month. Consensus expects headline prices to have risen 0.2% YoY while the core reading is seen at 1.0%.


EUR/CHF relevant levels

 

At the moment the cross is losing 0.06% at 1.0972 with the next support at 1.0922 (low Sep.10) ahead of 1.0878 (low Sep.9) and finally 1.0832 (low Sep.7). On the other hand, a break above 1.1011 (high Sep.15) would aim for 1.1049 (high Sep.11) and then 1.1100 (psychological level). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 16,2015

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UK: Labour market strengthening, unemployment data awaited - TDS

 

 

 

FXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that the UK labour market has been showing relatively healthy underlying dynamics in recent months, and we expect this to continue into July.


Key Quotes


“We see small downside risks to the 3MMA unemployment rate, which is likely to have notched down a tenth to 5.5% (consensus: 5.6%), putting it back at its March/April level.”

 

“We’ll also be looking carefully at private-sector regular pay growth, which is favoured by the MPC for signs of tightness in the labour market. This measure has been drifting up in recent months (3.4% y/y in June), sitting comfortably in a range that leaves it at its fastest rate of annual growth since mid-2008.” 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 16,2015

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