nordfx - nordfx.com

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Named Best ECN/STP Forex Broker 2024

NordFX received its first award nearly 15 years ago, back in 2010. Since then, it has been honoured with more than 70 professional prizes and titles for achievements and innovations across various sectors of the financial industry. However, only once before, in 2015, were NordFX's merits in organizing ECN trading specifically recognized. Now, the esteemed international online portal FXDailyInfo has once again acknowledged the company as the Best ECN/STP Forex Broker.

FXDailyInfo is one of the leading resources providing daily news and analysis on the financial markets, including broker reviews, educational materials, and other useful information for traders. The portal also annually recognizes the best representatives of the financial industry with its awards. Winners of the FXDailyinfo Awards are determined through open voting by visitors to the website, which makes these awards particularly valuable as they objectively reflect the opinion of the professional community. This time, the high rating was given for the services NordFX offers its clients on Zero accounts on popular platforms such as MetaTrader 4 and 5.

A key feature here is direct access to interbank liquidity. The Electronic Communication Network (ECN) used on MT4 Zero and MT5 Zero accounts directs trader orders directly to liquidity providers, bypassing any additional intermediation. This reduces order processing time and provides the opportunity to trade at the most favourable prices with minimal commissions and spreads. On most popular pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, typical spreads are 0 pips. In addition to currency pairs, traders can also conduct transactions with cryptocurrencies, stocks, and exchange indexes, as well as oil, gas, and precious metals on these accounts. Notably, the spread for the gold pair XAU/USD is also zero. This pair is particularly favored by traders in NordFX's top three, largely thanks to which they were able to earn an impressive total of nearly $2.5 million USD in the previous year, 2023.

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Anthony Pompliano, founder of Pomp Investments, asserts that bitcoin is "stronger than ever." This conclusion is based on the 200-day moving average (200 DMA) reaching its all-time high above $56,000. "In the long term, digital gold continues to appreciate. It is misleading to comfort oneself with the idea of a sideways trend. The long-term thesis is stronger than ever," the expert stated.

– Willy Woo, analyst and co-founder of CMCC Crest, has highlighted the activity of so-called crypto 'dolphins' and 'sharks.' "There has never been such vigorous coin accumulation by wealthy holders as in the last two months, with prices fluctuating between $60,000 and $70,000. These are individuals who hold between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC, or approximately $6.5 million to $65 million," he explained. Willy Woo anticipates that bitcoin will continue to penetrate various aspects of daily life, thereby increasing the number of users. "By 2035, we expect the fair value of bitcoin to reach $1 million. This forecast is based on the user growth curve, and I am talking about fair value, not the peak during a bull market frenzy. Bitcoin was not traded until the thousandth user appeared, and only after the launch of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp in 2011 did global platforms for asset valuation emerge. Since 2012, the BTC price has largely matched the growth in user numbers," noted the analyst.

– According to analysts at CryptoQuant, whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, unlike dolphins and sharks, behave quite passively. Meanwhile, Michael Van De Poppe, founder of MN Trading, has pointed out the "absence of retail investors." He predicts that in the event of another correction, the coin could drop to around $55,000. "However, this range is quite acceptable as long as bitcoin remains above $60,000. Altcoins are slowly awakening," he added.

– Trader and analyst known as Rekt Capital reported that the first cryptocurrency has exited the post-halving "danger zone" and entered a phase of reaccumulating. According to this expert, in 2016, after the halving, BTC demonstrated a long red candle on the weekly chart, decreasing by 17%. This time, however, the pattern repeated with a correction of just 6%. The price reached a local bottom at around $56,500 but then increased by 15% and re-entered the "reaccumulating range." The analyst warned that technically, the "danger zone" will continue until the end of this week when the third post-halving weekly candle closes. From a price perspective, the "reversal effect" has already occurred.

– Robert Kiyosaki, bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" and entrepreneur, has declared a crash in the currency market. "Bad news: the crash has already begun. It will be severe. Good news: a crash is the best time to get rich," he wrote, offering several recommendations on how to act during a crisis. The first recommendation is: "Find an additional source of income. Artificial Intelligence will destroy millions of jobs. Start a small business and become an entrepreneur rather than an employee who fears losing their job." The second advice from Kiyosaki is: "Do not save fake money (US dollars, euros, yen, pesos) which are declining in value. Save gold, silver, and bitcoin – real money whose value increases, especially in market crash conditions."

– Over the last decade, the main cryptocurrency has risen by an astonishing 12,464%, surpassing tech giants such as Amazon, Alphabet, and Netflix. However, according to a study by WuBlockchain, Nvidia shares took the lead, showcasing an even more impressive growth of 17,797%. This was facilitated by the company's cutting-edge graphics processors and semiconductor devices. The fact that bitcoin secured the second place, being a representative of a highly volatile market, is a true achievement. The impressive growth trajectory of BTC over the last decade demonstrates its resilience and potential as a viable investment vehicle. Given that investors are actively diversifying their portfolios and seeking ways to achieve potentially high returns, the analysis conducted by the WuBlockchain team serves as a valuable reference point that highlights the impressive dynamics not only of traditional tech company stocks but also of modern digital assets. 

– According to data from Clark Moody, more than 1 billion transactions have already been processed in the bitcoin network. Comparing network indicators with the international payment system Visa, it is notable that the first cryptocurrency's blockchain reached the billion milestone in just 15 years, while Visa required almost a quarter of a century. The average number of daily transactions in the BTC network, as detailed by The Block, is around 505,000, which is a sign of growing recognition for "digital gold." It should be noted that bitcoin is not the record holder in this indicator: the Ethereum network currently has around 2.4 billion transactions.

– On May 1, bitcoin updated the minimum from April 17-19, which has heightened investor concerns. Amid such fluctuations, Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, has become a symbol of bullish optimism. In his latest message, he urged investors to "run with the bulls." It should be noted that with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet, Saylor must exude optimism to prevent his company from incurring losses. However, analysts note that in reality, the fate of bitcoin depends not only on the sunny calls of the CEO of MicroStrategy. If buyer support weakens, BTC may return to key support levels at $61,000 and $56,000, where significant liquidity is concentrated.

– American and British scientists have published a study titled "The Impact of Cryptocurrency-Generated Wealth on Purchasing and Investment in Private Residences." The researchers examined financial transaction data for more than 60 million residents of the USA conducted from 2010 to 2023 and found that the rise in cryptocurrency prices causes a significant increase in real estate prices. In states such as California, Nevada, and Utah, where many residents became wealthy in 2017 due to the multiple increase in BTC prices, the value of real estate increased by an average of $2,000 annually, and every dollar earned from cryptocurrencies increased property prices by 15 cents.

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 13 – 17 May 2024

EUR/USD: Medium-Term Outlook Favours the Dollar

Throughout the past week, EUR/USD exhibited mixed dynamics, primarily driven by expectations concerning potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Statements by officials from both central banks, as well as economic macro-statistics, either heightened or lowered these expectations. 

The EUR/USD bullish rally commenced on 16 April from the 1.0600 mark, reaching a peak of 1.0811 on 3 May, after which growth stalled, starting the past week at 1.0762. On Monday, 6 May, statistics from the Eurozone provided some support to the common European currency. In April, the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 52.9 to 53.3, exceeding the forecast of 52.9. The Composite PMI, which includes the manufacturing sector and services, increased from 51.4 to 51.7. Germany's Composite PMI also showed positive dynamics, rising from 50.5 to 50.6. Consequently, business activity in the Eurozone reached its highest level in almost a year. Moreover, retail sales in the region showed significant growth, rising from -0.5% to +0.7% year-on-year.

This news backdrop suggests potential inflation growth, which in theory could deter the ECB from initiating a monetary policy easing. However, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that the Executive Board of the bank has compelling arguments for a rate cut at the 6 June meeting. Another ECB representative, Lithuanian Central Bank head Gediminas Simkus, indicated that rate cuts should not be limited to June, suggesting it could happen thrice by the end of the year. However, while the likelihood of easing (QE) in June is near 100%, there is some uncertainty regarding further steps. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos admitted that the regulator is cautiously forecasting any trends beyond June.

In addition to ECB officials' statements supporting easing, statistics released on Tuesday, 7 May, also contributed. They showed that manufacturing orders in Germany, the locomotive of the European economy, decreased by 0.4% in March after a 0.8% decline in February. As a result, the EUR/USD pair's growth halted, pulling back to 1.0723.

The pair made another attempt to break through the strong resistance zone of 1.0790-1.0800 on Thursday, 9 May, when US initial jobless claims data was unexpectedly reported at 231K, much worse than the expected 210K. This coincided with a widespread negative session for US yields along the curve. The situation worsened as the unemployment data confirmed concerning statistics released on 3 May. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), non-farm payrolls (NFP) rose by just 175K in April, significantly below the March figure of 315K and market expectations of 238K. The employment report also showed an increase in unemployment from 3.8% to 3.9%.

Besides combating inflation, the Fed's other declared main goal is maximum employment. "If inflation remains stable and the labor market strong, it would be appropriate to delay rate cuts," stated Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Now, the strength of the labour market is in question. However, the Fed is likely to focus on fighting inflation, which is still far from the 2.0% target.

A key inflation indicator tracked by the Fed, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose from 2.5% to 2.7% in March. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell below the key 50.0 mark, dropping from 50.3 to 49.2 points. Remember, a level of 50.0 separates economic growth from contraction. In such a situation, raising the interest rate is inadvisable, but lowering it is also not an option. This is exactly what the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the Fed did. At its meeting on Wednesday, 1 May, its members unanimously left the rate unchanged at 5.50%. This is the highest rate in 23 years, and the US central bank has kept it unchanged for six consecutive meetings.

The main scenario foresees the Fed beginning to review the rate towards a decrease no earlier than autumn, likely in September, with another cut by year-end. However, if US inflation does not decline or, worse, continues to rise, the regulator may abandon monetary policy easing until early 2025. Thus, considering the above, many analysts believe the medium-term advantage remains with the dollar, and EUR/USD is still attractive for sales with a horizon of several months.

The final point of the week for EUR/USD was at 1.0770, making the weekly result almost zero. Regarding the forecast for the near term, as of the evening of 10 May, it is maximally neutral: 50% expect dollar strengthening, and 50% expect its weakening. Trend indicators on D1 are equally divided: half are on the side of the reds, and half are on the side of the greens. Among oscillators, only 10% voted for the reds, another 10% remained neutral, and 80% voted for the greens (although a quarter of them are already signalling overbought conditions). The nearest support for the pair is located in the 1.0710-1.0725 zone, followed by 1.0650, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance zones are in the regions of 1.0795-1.0810, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

In the coming week, on Tuesday, 14 May, consumer inflation data (CPI) in Germany and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US will be released. Also scheduled for this day is a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The next day, Wednesday, 15 May, important indicators such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales volumes in the United States will be published. On Thursday, 16 May, the traditional number of initial jobless claims in the US will be announced. And at the very end of the working week, on Friday, 17 May, we will learn the Eurozone CPI as a whole, which may influence the ECB's decision regarding the euro interest rate.

GBP/USD: Pound Remains Under Pressure but Holds On

At its meeting on Thursday, 9 May, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee maintained the interest rate at 5.25%, the highest in 16 years. Economists polled by Reuters mostly expected borrowing costs to remain unchanged, with a committee vote ratio of 8 to 1. However, the vote was 7 to 2. During discussions, two committee members supported a rate cut to 5.0%, which market participants interpreted as a step towards the beginning of a policy easing cycle.

At the post-meeting press conference, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey expressed optimism, stating that the UK economy is moving in the right direction. Bailey also noted that “a rate cut next month is quite possible,” but he intends to wait for data on inflation, activity, and the labour market before making a decision. Chief Economist Huw Pill, although he joined the majority in voting to keep the rate unchanged, also expressed growing confidence that the time for a reduction is approaching. He added that “focusing only on the next Bank of England meeting [20 June] is somewhat unreasonable” and that “medium-term inflation forecasts do not necessarily signal rate movements at the next or subsequent meetings.”

Overall, the movement of the GBP/USD pair last week resembled that of the EUR/USD pair. The chart shows a distinct surge on Thursday, 9 May, triggered by data indicating a cooling US labour market. The pound was also supported by optimistic GDP data for the UK for Q1 2024 and manufacturing sector data for March.

GDP (quarter-on-quarter) rose by +0.6% after a decline of -0.3% in the previous quarter (forecast +0.4%). Additionally, the GDP grew by +0.2% year-on-year, recovering from a fall of -0.2%.

As with the euro, the pound is under pressure from the prospect of earlier monetary policy easing by the BoE compared to the Fed. However, the British currency ended the past week above the key 1.2500 level, at 1.2523. Moreover, 65% of analysts expect the pair not only to hold above this horizon but also to continue its growth. The remaining 35% voted for the pair's movement south. As for technical analysis, trend indicators on D1 are split 50-50. Among oscillators, only 10% recommend selling, 40% took a neutral position, and 50% recommend buying (10% of them signal overbought conditions). If the pair rises, it will encounter resistance at levels 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, and 1.2885-1.2900. In case of a fall, it will face support levels and zones at 1.2490-1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400-1.2410, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2185-1.2210, and 1.2070-1.2110, 1.2035.

The upcoming week's calendar highlights Tuesday, 14 May, when data from the UK labour market will be released. Also of interest is the Inflation Report hearing scheduled for Wednesday, 15 May.

USD/JPY: $50 Billion Interventions Wasted?

It seems that until the Bank of Japan (BoJ) takes confident and clear steps to tighten its monetary policy, nothing will help the yen. At its meeting on 26 April, the board members of this regulator unanimously decided to leave the key rate and QE program parameters unchanged. Expectedly tough comments on the outlook were also absent. This inaction increased pressure on the national currency, sending the USD/JPY pair to new heights. It continued its cosmic saga, reaching a new 34-year high of 160.22. Following this, Japan's financial authorities finally decided on a double currency intervention. Although there was no official confirmation, experts estimate its total volume at $50 billion.

Did it help? Judging by the USD/JPY chart, not really. The pair headed north again last week. Unlike the euro and the British pound, the yen barely reacted even to weak US labour market data on Thursday, 9 May, only slowing its decline.                 

All this occurs amid endless statements from the Japanese Central Bank and Ministry of Finance about their readiness to take necessary measures to reduce speculative pressure on the national currency. The published minutes of the BoJ meeting show that most board members took a "hawkish" stance, calling for a rate hike. However, many analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will take only one such step in the second half of the year.

The last chord of the past five days sounded at 155.75. Economists at Singapore’s United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB) expect the USD/JPY pair to trade in the 154.00-157.20 range in the next 1-3 weeks. UOB also believes that the chances of it falling to 151.55 have significantly diminished. Overall, most experts (70%) simply shrug their shoulders in uncertainty. The remaining 30% persistently expect the yen to strengthen. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators on D1 look north. Among oscillators, 50% are such, 15% point south, and 35% point east. Regarding support/resistance levels, traders should note that with such volatility, the slippage can reach many tens of points. The nearest support level is around 155.25, followed by 154.70, 153.90, 153.10, 151.85-152.25, 151.00, 150.00, after which come 146.50-146.90, 143.30-143.75, and 140.25-141.00. Resistance levels are 156.25, 157.00, 157.80-158.00, 158.60, 159.40, and 160.00-160.25.

Events of the upcoming week include the release on Thursday, 16 May, of preliminary GDP data for Japan for Q1 2024. No other significant publications regarding the Japanese economy are expected in the coming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Week of Reflection and Uncertainty

What will happen to bitcoin in the foreseeable future? It seems there is no clear answer to this question. Experts and influencers often point in opposite directions: some shoot for the stars, while others keep their eyes on the ground.

For instance, according to the founder of Pomp Investments, Anthony Pompliano, bitcoin is "stronger than ever." He concluded this based on the 200-day moving average (200 DMA) reaching its ATH (All-Time High) of $57,000. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, is also optimistic. In his latest message, he urged investors to "run with the bulls." (It should be noted here that MicroStrategy holds 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet, so Saylor's bullish calls are quite understandable. He simply has to do this for his company to profit rather than incur losses).

However, analysts note that bitcoin's fate depends not only on the rosy calls of the MicroStrategy CEO. And if buyer support weakens, BTC could break through the key support level of $61,000, falling to the $56,000 zone, where significant liquidity is concentrated. MN Trading founder Michael Van De Poppe does not rule out another correction to around $55,000. However, the specialist quickly reassures investors, stating that this is quite acceptable as long as bitcoin holds above $60,000. Anthony Pompliano believes that the price will not fall below $50,000, and another expert, Alan Santana, does not rule out a drop to $30,000.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital believes that the first cryptocurrency has exited the post-halving "danger zone" and entered the initial phase of re-accumulation. According to this expert, in 2016, BTC demonstrated a long red candle after the halving, falling by 17%. This time, the pattern repeated, with the difference between the post-halving maximum and minimum being 16%. The price reached a local bottom at around $56,566 but then rose to $65,508, on which Rekt Capital concluded that it re-entered the "re-accumulation range." However, there is one "but" - after this, we again observed a drop to $60,175. Overall, it seems that BTC/USD is in a descending channel, which increases investor concern.

In general, the forecasts are quite diverse. Information on the activity of various categories of traders and investors also varies. Analyst and CMCC Crest co-founder Willy Woo noted the activity of so-called crypto dolphins and sharks. "There has never been such a rapid purchase of coins by wealthy holders as in the last two months when the price fluctuated between $60,000-70,000. We are talking about those who hold from 100 BTC to 1000 BTC or approximately $6.5-65 million," he explained. On the other hand, according to CryptoQuant analysts, whales holding from 1000 to 10000 BTC, unlike dolphins and sharks, have behaved quite passively. Michael Van De Poppe, for his part, notes the absence of retail investors.

All this suggests that we may not see new all-time highs for BTC in the coming months. We wrote about this in the previous review, citing, among other things, the opinion of such a Wall Street legend as Factor LLC head Peter Brandt. With a 25% probability, he assumed that bitcoin had already formed another ATH within the current cycle.

As for long-term forecasts, nothing has changed here - most of them predict a powerful bull rally for bitcoin. Anthony Pompliano writes about this. Willy Woo expects bitcoin to continue increasing its penetration into various spheres of everyday life, meaning the number of users will grow. "By 2035, we expect bitcoin's fair value to reach $1 million. This forecast is based on the user growth curve. And I'm talking about fair value, not a peak during a bull market frenzy," the analyst notes.

The author of the bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad," entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki, once again included bitcoin in the TOP-3 ways to save and increase capital. "Bad news: the [currency market] crash has already begun. It will be severe. Good news: a crash is the best time to get rich," he wrote, offering several recommendations on how to act in a crisis. Let's note two of them. The first reads: "Find an additional source of income. Artificial Intelligence will destroy millions of jobs. Start a small business and become an entrepreneur, not an employee afraid of losing a job." "Don't hoard fake money (US dollar, euro, yen, peso) that is losing value. Hoard gold, silver, and bitcoin - real money whose value increases, especially in a market crash," is Kiyosaki's second recommendation.

Regarding bitcoin's growth, Kiyosaki is absolutely right; it's even pointless to argue. According to a study by Colin Wu, better known as WuBlockchain, over the past decade, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has grown by an astonishing 12,464%, outpacing giants like Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Tesla, and Netflix. BTC was second only to Nvidia (+17,797%). But the fact that bitcoin took second place, being a representative of a relatively new and volatile market, is a real achievement. BTC's impressive growth trajectory over the past decade demonstrates its resilience and potential as an essential component in investors' portfolios.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, 10 May, the BTC/USD pair is trading at $60,470. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $2.24 trillion ($2.33 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from the Neutral zone (48 points a week ago) to the Greed zone, now standing at 66 points.

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/ 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Billionaire Mark Cuban stated that if Joe Biden loses the upcoming presidential election, the crypto community will have a chance to "thank" the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and its head, Gary Gensler. According to Cuban, the conflict between the SEC and the digital industry could negatively impact the support for the current US President. The billionaire remarked, "Gensler has not protected a single investor from fraud." "All he has accomplished is making it nearly impossible for legitimate crypto companies to operate, destroying countless enterprises and bankrupting unknown numbers of entrepreneurs," he added.
Cuban's tweet came in response to an article in Politico. The article mentions that Biden's competitor, Donald Trump, became the first presidential candidate to openly try to attract crypto users to his side. At an event promoting his own NFT collection, Mugshot Edition, he announced the acceptance of donations in digital assets. Additionally, his team, together with Bitcoin Magazine, developed a project to regulate the crypto sphere. Trump promised to protect the industry if elected, emphasizing that the current President "doesn't even know" what cryptocurrency is.

– The analytical platform Arkham Intelligence published a list of well-known personalities with more than 1 million followers on X (formerly Twitter) who have invested in cryptocurrency. The top 3 in the audience size ranking are Canadian singer Justin Bieber, Donald Trump, and Brazilian footballer Neymar. According to the provided data, the former US President and Republican Party candidate owns a crypto portfolio estimated at around $7 million. His wallet was last active in December 2023 when 250 ETH were sent to the Coinbase exchange.

– The current bitcoin lull may continue until early summer, but in Q3–Q4, a return to a growth trajectory is expected. Experts from the crypto exchange Bitfinex stated this. "We expect the market to remain uncertain in the short term, with low volatility until the actual winding down of the US Fed's QT [quantitative tightening programme]," the specialists believe. In their opinion, this will favour risky assets like cryptocurrencies. The fall of the US dollar from a six-month peak after the May Fed meeting and a weak employment report marked a turning point in the trend. The weakening USD could support the next phase of the digital assets rally.

– According to Capriole Investment founder Charles Edwards, bitcoin is in the "bored to death" stage. He stated that the current consolidation period could last from one to six months, during which quotes will remain in a low volatility range. This will happen until traders lose patience.
Sentiments will be most negative just before the sideways movement ends, Edwards believes. "When you get tired of the sideways movement, general symptoms will include thoughts that the halving is already priced in and the bull market is over. [...] Your symptoms and shorts will peak just before the mega rally," predicts the Capriole Investment head.

– By 2030, the first cryptocurrency will reach and surpass $1 million. This forecast was made by Twitter (now X) co-founder and Block head Jack Dorsey. The entrepreneur noted that the most interesting aspect of digital gold is the nature of its ecosystem and how it stimulates collective efforts to improve the network. "Besides the founding story, the most amazing thing about bitcoin is that everyone [...] who makes even the smallest effort to make it better improves the entire ecosystem, causing the price to rise. It's an amazing movement. [...] It has taught me a lot," he explained. 

– One of the crucial questions for investors is choosing between bitcoin and ethereum. The roles of these two cryptocurrencies differ, and this can significantly impact their profitability. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as digital gold, providing stability in times of economic uncertainty. This concept is supported by the post-halving volatility reduction, which is now even lower than many companies in the S&P 500 index (Fidelity data).
Ethereum continues to push the boundaries of the possible through technological innovations, including the recent Dencun update aimed at reducing fees and increasing scalability. However, these changes have made the network inflationary again, nullifying the deflationary trend established after "The Merge" in 2022. Consequently, ETH volatility remains significantly higher than BTC despite the overall market calm.
According to ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence by OpenAI, the choice between these assets largely depends on individual investment strategy and risk tolerance. Bitcoin is generally better suited for investors seeking a relatively safe store of value. It attracts risk-averse individuals or those new to cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, Ethereum is more suitable for those who believe in the future of blockchain technology. The main cryptocurrency offers gradual growth, while the main altcoin offers potentially higher rewards but also higher risk. 

– Investor and Eight founder Michaël van de Poppe has already made his choice. He admitted to selling all his bitcoins to buy altcoins. According to him, capital inflow and outflow in ETFs mainly influence BTC price movement, which depends on the dollar exchange rate and the Fed's policy. Additionally, the problems crypto companies face with US regulators affect bitcoin quotes.
Regarding altcoins, Van de Poppe believes many of them are undervalued. Once ETH quotes start rising, other alternative tokens will also go up. The specialist believes that the altcoins he selected will likely grow earlier and faster than the market flagship, allowing for greater profit than investing in digital gold.

– Former CEO of the largest crypto exchange Binance, Changpeng Zhao, is to serve four months in an American prison by court order. He wrote on social media X that during his upcoming "solitude," he would focus on writing, although he did not specify the nature of his creative work. The hint at writing a book sparked curiosity among Zhao's followers, as he is one of the key figures in the crypto community. There are speculations that Zhao's future book may cover his experience in the crypto business and share insights that would be interesting to both ordinary traders and industry executives.
In April, Changpeng Zhao was sentenced to four months in prison. This punishment followed his resignation as CEO of Binance in November when Zhao pleaded guilty to money laundering charges. Binance agreed to pay a $4.3 billion fine. Despite regulatory issues, Zhao stated that his departure from Binance does not mean he has lost interest in cryptocurrencies, and he will continue to contribute to the industry's development. For instance, in March, the former CEO launched the free educational initiative Giggle Academy to teach finance and blockchain to underprivileged youth. 

– The analyst known as Rekt Capital noted that the threat of a bitcoin price drop after the halving has already passed. Drawing an analogy with the situation six years ago, he suggested that on May 1st, the bitcoin price hit a bottom around $56,000. The asset will remain in the accumulation zone until autumn. During this time, the market will likely stay calm, and the BTC price will fluctuate between $60,000 and $66,500. After that, Rekt Capital forecasts an exponential growth phase, during which the coin's value will reach new heights.

– Galaxy Digital head Mike Novogratz also noted in an interview with Bloomberg that the cryptocurrency market is in a consolidation phase. The market's growth stalled three months after the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US. In his opinion, the first cryptocurrency will trade between $55,000 and $75,000 until new circumstances or events in the market trigger growth.
At the same time, Novogratz noted increased activity in sectors like crypto lending on the blockchain. "Six months ago, this was impossible, and now people are willing to lend us cryptocurrency for the long term without collateral," the businessman said. "The number of counterparties is growing, and overall involvement in the crypto space is at an entirely new level."

– Usually, fraudsters try to withdraw stolen coins through mixers within weeks or months and then transfer them to secret bank accounts or convert them into various currencies. However, there are unique cases. According to crypto security experts from the Cyvers platform, one of the criminals waited seven years before starting to sell stolen virtual assets. Only now has he sent 3,050 ETH to a cryptocurrency mixer.
Cyvers specialists calculated that the hacker still has over 83,000 Ethereum, currently valued at $240 million. At the time of the theft, this cryptocurrency was worth only $33 million. Such long-term patience indicates that the hacker is an experienced market participant and accurately predicts price dynamics in the short, medium, and long term.

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 20 – 24 May 2024

EUR/USD: Weak Inflation = Weak USD

● The American currency suffered two significant blows last week. Although these were not knockdowns, let alone knockouts, these minor shocks pushed the DXY Dollar Index down from 105.26 to 104.20 points, and EUR/USD up from 1.0766 to 1.0895.

The first blow came on Tuesday, 14 May, from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Surprisingly, after his comments, the dollar should have strengthened, but instead, it faltered. Powell stated that the regulator's monetary policy is currently tight enough to eventually reduce inflation. However, he also mentioned that the Fed is not confident that inflation is rapidly decreasing and that it may take more time to reach the target level of 2.0%. One could conclude from this that the regulator is not planning to either raise or lower the interest rate.

● The dollar's weakening at this moment is even more peculiar because Powell's comments were made against the backdrop of strong data on the US Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating industrial inflation growth. In April, this indicator increased by +0.5% on a monthly basis after falling by -0.1% in March (forecast +0.3%). The core index, excluding food and energy, showed growth from 2.1% to 2.4% (y/y).

We can only explain the dollar's decline in this situation with one reason. Market participants were possibly expecting that the Fed Chairman would at least hint that if inflation rises, they need to consider another rate hike. But since he did not say this, disappointment ensued.

● What happened the next day seemed 100% logical. The report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday, 15 May, showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 0.4% to 0.3% (m/m) against a forecast of 0.4%. On an annual basis, inflation also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. Retail sales showed an even stronger decline, from 0.6% to 0.0% on a monthly basis (forecast 0.4%). These data indicated that although inflation in the country is resisting in some areas, it is generally declining.

As a result, talks about a possible Fed rate cut this year resurfaced. "These are the first weaker CPI data that the central bank [US] needs to lower rates this year," said Jason Pride, Glenmede's Director of Investment Strategy and Analysis. The likelihood that the rate will remain unchanged until the end of 2024 fell from 35% to 25%, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. As a result, the DXY continued to fall, and the EUR/USD pair rose. Stock markets rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record levels. There were 43 new 52-week highs and no new lows in the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq had 153 highs and 25 lows.

● The dollar's weakening was halted by comments from Fed representatives at the end of the week. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) President Neel Kashkari stated that he is not confident that the current "tight monetary policy is having a dominant effect on inflation, so interest rates need to be maintained." New York FRB President John Williams said that one positive inflation report is not enough to neutralize the negative impact of the previous two, so it's not yet time to expect the Fed to start lowering rates soon.

● As for the common European currency, Reuters writes that it is resisting a fall to parity with the dollar (1:1) due to a favourable economic backdrop and the monetary measures of the European Central Bank (ECB). The six-month low for EUR/USD was recorded on 16 April at 1.0600, against the backdrop of the Eurozone's fragile economy and in sharp contrast with the stable US economy. But gradually, business activity in Europe began to recover, and according to the April report, it grew even faster than on the other side of the Atlantic. This contributed to the positive dynamics of the euro. Reuters experts noted that the gap between economic indicators in Europe and the US is narrowing, providing some support to the euro.

● EUR/USD closed the week at 1.0868. As for the analysts' forecast for the near future, as of the evening of 17 May, the majority (65%) expect the dollar to strengthen, 20% foresee further weakening, and the remaining 15% took a neutral stance. All trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are 100% coloured green, with a quarter of them signalling that the pair is overbought. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zones of 1.0815-1.0835, then 1.0710-1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0560, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0000. Resistance zones are found at 1.0880-1.0915, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

● The schedule of the most important events for next week is as follows. On Tuesday, 21 May, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak. On Wednesday, 22 May, the publication of the minutes from the last FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Fed is of particular interest. The next day, as usual, we will learn about the number of initial jobless claims in the US, as well as receive preliminary data on business activity (PPI) in Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States. At the very end of the workweek, on Friday, 24 May, we will learn the GDP data of Germany for Q1 2024.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Weak USD = Strong BTC

● "A week of reflection and uncertainty": this is how we described the previous review. On Wednesday, 15 May, this uncertainty was resolved in favour of the crypto market. As often happens, the reason for this was the Fed's monetary policy. The released inflation data in the US influenced market expectations regarding a rate cut. As a result, the American currency weakened, the DXY index went down, and investors' risk appetites increased. Stock indices reached historical highs, with the daily gain for BTC/USD exceeding 8%. ETH/USD also rose by 4.5%. However, this is not yet the long-awaited Bull Rally, and it is quite possible that once the situation with the dollar calms down, the growth of bitcoin and leading altcoins will cease. At least, this is the scenario many crypto market specialists predict.

● According to Capriole Investment founder Charles Edwards, bitcoin is in a "deathly boring" stage. He believes that the current consolidation period may last from one to six months, during which the quotes will remain in a low-volatility range. This will continue until traders lose patience.

Sentiment will be most negative just before the end of the flat period, Edwards believes. "When you get tired of the sideways movement, common symptoms will include thoughts that the halving is already priced in and the bull market is over. […] Your symptoms and shorts will peak just before the mega-rally," predicts the head of Capriole Investment.

● Galaxy Digital head Mike Novogratz also spoke about the consolidation of the crypto market, whose growth dried up three months after the launch of spot BTC-ETFs. In his opinion, until new circumstances or events lead to growth, the first cryptocurrency will trade in the range of $55,000 to $75,000.

Analyst Rekt Capital expressed a similar point of view. He believes that the threat of a bitcoin price drop after the halving has already passed. Drawing an analogy with the situation six years ago, he suggested that on 01 May, BTC hit a bottom around $56,000, and now calm will likely prevail until autumn, with the asset remaining in the accumulation zone. According to Rekt Capital's forecast, the exponential growth phase will begin in the autumn, during which the coin's value will reach new heights.

● Bitfinex crypto exchange experts are somewhat more optimistic. They believe that the current lull may last only until the beginning of summer, and in Q3–Q4, growth will return. But everything depends on the actions of the US Fed. Bitfinex notes that the decline of the US currency from a six-month peak after the May meeting of the regulator and a weak employment report became a turning point in the trend. Now, the reduction in inflationary pressure in the US has been added. As a result, the weakening of the US currency could stimulate a rally in digital assets.

● Where will this rally lead in the medium and long term? There are many answers to this question. Some predict the complete collapse and oblivion of bitcoin, while others insist on a price of $1 million per coin. Recently, Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter (now X) and head of Block, joined the "millionaires' club" after CMCC Crest co-founder Willy Woo. He also expects bitcoin to surpass the $1 million mark by 2030, after which it will continue to grow, challenging traditional fiat currencies. The entrepreneur noted that a very interesting aspect of digital gold is the nature of its ecosystem and how it stimulates collective efforts to improve the network. "Aside from the founding story, the most amazing thing about bitcoin is that everyone [...] who makes any effort to improve it makes the whole ecosystem better, which drives the price up. This is an incredible movement. [...] It has taught me a lot," he explained.

● Businessman, writer, and founder of Edelman Financial Services Ric Edelman believes that traditional international investors will do everything possible to diversify their portfolios. And if they all invest at least 1% of their funds in the first cryptocurrency, the bitcoin market volume will reach an unprecedented $7.4 trillion, and the asset price will soar to $420,000. The growth of the market capitalization will be facilitated by spot BTC-ETFs. According to Edelman, they cover a much broader investor base than traditional assets. "In addition, crypto ETFs are incredibly cheap. They are 20-25% cheaper than assets on Coinbase or other crypto exchanges. Plus, they are held in brokerage accounts. Bitcoin ETFs allow for traditional investment strategies such as rebalancing and dollar-cost averaging. There are also tax advantages," Edelman lists the advantages of such funds. "I am confident that bitcoin and ethereum ETFs will have a significant impact on the market in the long run," he stated.

● However, this last assertion can be disputed. While BTC-ETFs are a reality, the situation with ETH-ETFs is not so simple. Many expected the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) to approve applications for the launch of ethereum funds in May. But this has not happened yet. Moreover, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas and securities lawyer Scott Johnson believe that the chances of approving spot ETH-ETFs are almost zero. In their opinion, the SEC is now considering the possibility of rejecting these funds' launch based on the fact that the applications were submitted with violations, as the fund shares are securities, not exchange-traded commodities.

● The question of choosing between bitcoin and ethereum confronts many investors. The roles of these two cryptocurrencies differ, and this can significantly affect their profitability. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as digital gold, providing stability during times of economic uncertainty. This concept is supported by the observed post-halving volatility decrease, which was even lower than that of many companies in the S&P 500 index (Fidelity data).

Ethereum continues to push the boundaries of what is possible through technological innovations, including the recent Dencun update aimed at reducing fees and increasing scalability. However, these changes have once again made the network inflationary, nullifying the deflationary trend established after The Merge in 2022. As a result, ETH's volatility remains higher than BTC's.

According to ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence from OpenAI, the choice between these assets largely depends on individual investment strategy and risk tolerance. Bitcoin is generally better suited for investors seeking a relatively safe store of value and those new to cryptocurrencies. In contrast, Ethereum is better for those who believe in the future of blockchain technology. The main altcoin potentially offers higher rewards but also higher risks.

● Investor and Eight founder Michaël van de Poppe has already made his choice. He admitted to selling all his bitcoins to buy altcoins. Van de Poppe believes that many of them are undervalued. And as soon as ETH prices start to rise, other alternative tokens will also go up. The expert believes that the altcoins he has chosen are likely to start growing earlier and faster than the market leader, allowing for greater profit than from investments in digital gold.

● At the time of writing this review, the evening of Friday, 17 May, BTC/USD is trading at $66,835, and ETH/USD at $3,095. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $2.42 trillion ($2.24 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from 66 to 74 points but remains in the Greed zone.

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/ 

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX's New Mega Super Lottery: 202+4 Prizes in 2024

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– On 20-21 May, bitcoin surged sharply for the first time since 9 April, approaching $72,000. This rally was triggered by data showing a sharp increase in investments in BTC-ETFs, reaching a nine-week high. According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose by $932 million last week, following an inflow of $130 million the previous week, marking the highest level in nine weeks. Additionally, Grayscale's ETF saw its first-ever inflow of $18 million. Analysts believe this surge in digital asset investments was a response to the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the United States.

– After bitcoin rose above $71,000, its price hit new all-time highs in the local currencies of several Asian and South American countries. According to CoinMarketCap, BTC reached a record level of 11.2 million yen at the start of trading on 21 May in Japan, marking the first time the flagship asset's value exceeded 11 million yen. Bitcoin also hit a peak in Argentina, reaching 63.8 million Argentine pesos, slightly above the 14 March high. In the Philippines, bitcoin briefly climbed to 4.18 million pesos, the highest level since mid-March 2024. BTC prices in several other countries, including the UK, Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Israel, Norway, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey, also matched or were very close to their mid-March peak prices.

– Santiment noted that bitcoin had not shown positive dynamics due to small traders selling off. According to The Block Research, the rate of new BTC wallet openings fell to a six-year low post-halving, reflecting a general decline in enthusiasm after the failed April Bull Rally. However, whales started actively buying BTC from small players, driving the growth at the beginning of the current week.

– Kyle Schneps, Foundry's director, believes that the introduction of a 30% tax on the electricity used by BTC miners could collapse the industry in the US. Darin Feinstein, founder of Core Scientific, shares a similar view. He believes the proposed energy tax legislation by the current White House administration could significantly damage the US economy. Schneps predicts mining companies will seek new regions to continue their operations, with the Middle East becoming a preferred location. In 2023, Russia ranked second in mining volumes after the US. BitRiver's calculations showed Russian miners produced about 54,000 BTC (around $3.5 billion) last year, with an average of 22 GW of mining capacity (compared to 1 GW in 2022). In the US, 143,000 BTC were mined over the same period, using 5.3 GW of power (up from 3-4 GW in 2022).  

– Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital, expects the Biden administration to soften its policy towards the digital asset industry soon. He believes US authorities do not want to lose the votes of cryptocurrency users in the upcoming presidential elections. While a complete policy reversal is unlikely, some easing of the stance is expected. According to former CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo, “Donald Trump could reasonably claim the title of the first US cryptocurrency president due to the launch of regulated bitcoin futures in his first year in office”.

– The leading altcoin surged even more than bitcoin on 20-21 May. Bloomberg analysts reported that the SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) had changed its stance on the launch of spot ETFs for Ethereum. The regulator requested expedited updates to applications for such funds, with the first decision (from VanEck) expected on 23 May. Following this news, Ethereum's price soared by over 25%, reaching a peak of $3833. According to Coinglass, the total amount of liquidations and forced closures of short positions on crypto exchanges at that time amounted to $340 million. A total of 78,800 positions were liquidated, with the largest individual liquidation occurring on the HTX exchange, amounting to $3.1 million for the ETH/USDT pair.

– QCP Capital analysts believe that if spot ETH-ETF applications are approved, Ethereum's price could surpass $5,000 by the end of the year. Standard Chartered expects capital inflows into such funds to reach $15-45 billion (2-9 million ETH) in the first year. This influx would drive the asset's price to $8,000 with bitcoin at $150,000. Bold forecasts from the bank's analysts suggest that if market dynamics remain positive, Ethereum could reach $14,000, and bitcoin could rise to $200,000 by 2025.

– Markus Thielen, an analyst at 10x Research, predicted that bitcoin's breakthrough of the $68,300 resistance on 20 May could catalyse a powerful rally. QCP Capital expects the main cryptocurrency to reach $74,000 in the coming months. The company's economists believe that institutional acceptance of cryptocurrency is accelerating, and improving global economic conditions create a favourable environment for capital inflows into risky assets. The approaching US presidential elections also improve investor sentiment.

– The latest version of the GPT-4o artificial intelligence from OpenAI predicts that bitcoin's price on 1 August 2024 will be in the range of $76,348 to $89,108, considering current market factors and historical trends. The Anthropic AI model, Claude 3 Opus, offers an even more optimistic forecast, indicating a range between $105,072 and $167,808 by the specified date.

– Linus Torvalds, creator of the Linux operating system, is highly sceptical of digital assets. He expresses bewilderment and regret over claims of cryptocurrencies' long-term value and the omnipotence of AI technologies. Torvalds believes cryptocurrencies are excellent tools for fraud and are widely used in various Ponzi schemes. "I don't believe in cryptocurrencies and see them as a tool for taking money from naive and impressionable users, just as I don't believe in Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy, or the Easter Bunny," he stated.

– Peter Schiff, a well-known financier and advocate of physical gold, has once again declared bitcoin a "dead cryptocurrency." Like Linus Torvalds, his negative comments aim to prevent potential investors from making a serious mistake by investing in this "pseudo-asset." However, the "gold bug" Schiff promised that if bitcoin enthusiasts stop comparing the cryptocurrency to gold, he would cease publicly criticising it.

– The court found Craig Wright guilty of perjury. "Dr Wright's attempts to prove he was/is Satoshi Nakamoto represent the most severe abuse of procedure [...]" the court's decision stated. "It is evident that Wright deliberately created fake documents to support false claims and used the courts as a means of fraud." "Wright's testimony was at best unreliable [...] and at worst fabricated," the judge declared, expressing complete confidence that Wright repeatedly lied to the court in his testimony. These perjury facts may now be referred to the British prosecutor's office. However, in a tweet on 20 May, Wright announced his intention to appeal the decision.

– Controversial blogger and former kickboxer Andrew Tate announced his intention to completely abandon fiat and invest over $100 million in bitcoin. He aims to break free from "banks, their money, and other scams." Tate promised to provide evidence of his actions. It is noteworthy that Andrew Tate, a millionaire and former MMA fighter, is also known for his misogynistic statements. All his channels on YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram are blocked. 
It is known that Tate and his brother had been arrested in Romania on charges of human trafficking and rape. According to Romanian police, Andrew and Tristan recruited women for pornography. Romania TV reported in late 2022 that Swedish eco-activist Greta Thunberg might have been involved in their arrest.

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 27 – 31 May 2024

EUR/USD: The Battle of Europe and US PMIs

Overall, the past week favoured the dollar, but the advantage over the European currency was minimal. If you look at where the EUR/USD pair was on 15 May, it returned to this zone on 24 May, regaining the losses of recent days. Recall that the report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on 15 May showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month (m/m), against a forecast of 0.4%. On an annual basis, inflation also fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Retail sales volume demonstrated an even more significant decline, from 0.6% to 0.0% month-on-month (forecast 0.4%). These data indicated that inflation in the country, though resistant in certain areas, is still on the decline. At that moment, there were renewed discussions in the market about a possible rate cut by the Fed as early as this autumn. As a result, the Dollar Index (DXY) went down, and EUR/USD went up. Stock indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs.

The most volatile day of the past week was Thursday, 23 May. Preliminary business activity data in the Eurozone exceeded expectations, strengthening the euro and lifting the pair to 1.0860. In Germany, the main locomotive of the European economy, the Manufacturing PMI rose from 42.5 to 45.4 points (forecast 43.2). This is still below the 50.0-point threshold separating decline from growth, but the trend is clearly positive. The Services PMI reached its highest level since June last year, hitting 53.9 against a forecast of 53.5 and a previous value of 53.2.

Germany's Composite PMI increased from 50.6 to 52.2 (market expectations were 51.0). Overall, business activity statistics in the Eurozone were also positive. The Composite PMI updated multi-month highs and, with a forecast of 52.0, actually reached 52.3 points (previous value 51.7).

However, the euro bulls' joy was short-lived. Later on Thursday, similar preliminary data on the US economy were released. They showed that business activity in the country's private sector grew at the highest rate in the past two years. The Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.0 to 50.9 points, and the Composite PMI jumped from 51.3 to 54.8 in a month. Market expectations were much lower, at the previous level of 51.3, so such a sharp rise signalled a surge in the DXY to 105.05 and a fall in the EUR/USD pair to 1.0804, as the likelihood of a rate cut in September decreased.

But the bears' joy was also short-lived. The GDP data released on Friday, 24 May, for Q1 2024 in Germany showed that the country's economy is saying goodbye to recession and moving into the growth zone. After a decline of -0.3%, GDP increased by 0.5%, resulting in a net growth of +0.2%.

In the end, after all these fluctuations, EUR/USD returned to the Pivot Point of the past one and a half weeks, closing at 1.0845. As for analysts' forecasts for the near future, as of the evening of 24 May, most (65%) expect the dollar to strengthen, 20% expect it to weaken, and the remaining 15% are neutral. All trend indicators on D1 are green, while 60% of oscillators are also green. Another 15% are red, and 25% are neutral grey. The nearest support for the pair is in the zones of 1.0830-1.0840, 1.0800-1.0810, then 1.0765, 1.0710-1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, and 1.0600-1.0620. Resistance zones are located at 1.0880-1.0895, 1.0925-1.0940, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

The following week's calendar highlights Tuesday, 28 May, when the US Consumer Confidence Index will be announced. On the next day, 29 May, data on consumer inflation (CPI) in Germany will be released. On Thursday, 30 May, preliminary US GDP data for Q1 2024 will be published. The last working day of the week and the month might be quite eventful. On Friday, 31 May, Germany's retail sales volumes, preliminary inflation indicators (CPI) in the Eurozone, and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index will be announced. Traders should also note that Monday, 27 May, is a public holiday in the US, as the country observes Memorial Day.

GBP/USD: Uncertain Times for the Pound

The prospects for the British currency, as well as the national economy as a whole, are ambiguous. Additional uncertainty is brought by the fact that early parliamentary elections are scheduled for 4 July. As Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated, "economic instability is just the beginning. [...] The time has come for Britain to make a choice. [...] Uncertain times require a clear plan and bold actions." However, what these "bold actions" will be remains unknown. 

The macro statistics released last week did not add clarity. The preliminary Services PMI in the UK decreased from 55.0 to 52.9 points in May, against expectations of 54.7. And although in the manufacturing sector, this figure increased from 49.1 to 51.3, the Composite PMI stood at 52.8, below both the previous value of 54.1 and market expectations of 54.0.

As the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed, published on Friday, 24 May, retail sales in the country fell by -2.3% (m/m) in April, against a forecast of -0.4% and a result of -0.2% in March. The annual retail sales volume decreased by -2.7% compared to the previous result of -0.4%, and core retail sales fell by -3.0% (y/y) against 0% a month earlier, with all figures significantly below forecasts.

In such a situation, experts' opinions regarding the timing of the Bank of England's (BoE) rate cut also do not provide clear guidance. Analysts at JP Morgan (JPM) stick to their previous forecast of a rate cut in August but are cautious, citing still high consumer price inflation (CPI). "We adhere to our forecast [...] but believe that the risks have clearly shifted towards a later cut. Now it is a question of whether the Bank of England will be able to ease its policy at all this year." Strategists at Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC have also shifted their rate cut forecasts, moving the date from June to August for now. But this is only "for now"...

The maximum of the past week for GBP/USD was recorded at 1.2760. According to economists from Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB), the pair's upward momentum has slowed, and the likelihood of the pound rising to 1.2800 is decreasing. UOB believes that in the next 1-3 weeks, the British currency will trade in the range of 1.2685 to 1.2755.

The week ended at 1.2737. The median forecast of analysts for the near future is as follows: 60% voted for the pair's movement to the south, 20% for the northern direction, and 20% preferred neutrality. As for technical analysis, all trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, but a third of the latter signal overbought conditions. In case of further decline, the pair will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2695, 1.2635, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, 1.2300-1.2330. In case of growth, the pair will meet resistance at levels 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2885-1.2900.

No significant economic data releases for the United Kingdom are scheduled for the coming week. However, it should be noted that Monday, 27 May, is a bank holiday in the UK.

USD/JPY: Calmness, Ladies and Gentlemen, Just Calmness!

For such a super-volatile pair as USD/JPY, the past week was surprisingly calm. There were no currency interventions, and verbal interventions were as usual – lots of words, little action. Thus, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki once again expressed concern about rising prices caused by the weak national currency. According to Suzuki, one of the main goals of monetary authorities is to achieve wage growth exceeding inflation. "On the other hand," the minister added, "if prices remain high, achieving this goal will be difficult." In general, as usual, the government is closely monitoring the situation, understanding that everything is complicated, and therefore ... will continue to monitor.

Based on this contemplative policy, despite the GDP decline in Q1, on Thursday, 23 May, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced that it left the issuance volumes of Japanese government bonds (JGB) at the previous level. According to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, "the economic outlook has not changed." The BoJ's view of the global economy has also not changed significantly. In general, calmness, ladies and gentlemen, just calmness!

Against this positive background, USD/JPY pair reacted only to the yield of US Treasury bonds and the dynamics of the Dollar Index (DXY). As a result, starting the five-day period around 155.70, it gradually moved up and ended it at 156.96. Analysts at United Overseas Bank (UOB) believe that given the weak upward pressure, the pair's growth in the next 1-3 weeks will be slow, and the barrier at 157.50 may prove to be a tough nut to crack. In their opinion, a price breakthrough above 157.00 is possible, but the pair is unlikely to consolidate above this level. The next resistance at 157.50 is unlikely to be threatened. UOB estimates that support is at 156.40, followed by 156.10. If USD/JPY falls below 155.60, it will indicate that the slight upward pressure has weakened, write the bank's economists.  

Speaking of the average forecast, only 20% of analysts point south, 40% north, and another 40% east. Technical analysis tools are clearly devoid of such disagreements. Therefore, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, with 20% of the latter already in the overbought zone. It should be noted that while the green/north color of indicators regarding the British pound indicates its strengthening, in relation to the yen, it signals its weakening. Therefore, we advise paying attention to the GBP/JPY pair, whose dynamics have been very impressive lately.

The nearest support level is around 156.25, followed by zones and levels of 155.25-155.45, 154.60, 153.60-153.90, 153.00-153.15, 151.85-152.35, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, and 146.50. The nearest resistance is in the zone of 157.20, followed by 157.80-158.00, 158.45, 159.40, and 160.20-160.30.

From the events of the upcoming week, we recommend noting the speech of the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Monday, 27 May, as well as the publication of consumer inflation (CPI) data in the Tokyo region on Friday, 31 May.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Week Under the Ethereum Flag

In 2024, the crypto community began gradually forgetting the term "crypto winter." However, there was no talk of a "crypto spring" either. After the halving on 12 April, in the absence of a bull rally, small traders and speculators began selling off their coin reserves. According to The Block Research, the rate of opening new BTC wallets fell to a six-year low. However, the whales buying digital gold for the future prevented a complete collapse in prices.

And finally, at the end of the calendar spring, it seems spring has come to the crypto market. And it was awakened by the Federal Reserve System (Fed) of the USA with its monetary policy. According to analysts, the surge in investments in digital assets was a response to the May consumer inflation (CPI) report in the US, which positively impacted the risk appetites of institutional investors.

According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds increased by $932 million from 13 to 17 May, after an inflow of $130 million the previous week. For the first time, there was an inflow of $18 million into Grayscale's ETF. This sharp increase in BTC-ETF investments, the highest in the last nine weeks, triggered a sharp rise in bitcoin on 20-21 May, approaching $72,000 for the first time since 09 April.

After bitcoin rose above $71,000, its price updated historical highs in the local currencies of several Asian and South American countries. According to CoinMarketCap, in Japan, BTC reached a record level of 11.2 million yen at the start of trading on 21 May. This is the first case where the flagship asset's price exceeded 11 million yen. Digital gold prices also peaked in Argentina, where the leading cryptocurrency reached 63.8 million Argentine pesos, slightly above the maximum on 14 March.

In the Philippines, one bitcoin briefly rose to 4.18 million pesos, the highest since mid-March 2024. In several other countries, BTC prices also equalled or were very close to mid-March's maximum prices: in the UK, Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Israel, Norway, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey.

However, the Fed and American macro statistics, having awakened the markets, also calmed them. After strong business activity data in the US, BTC/USD returned to the support zone of $67,000. Another (and probably the main) reason why bitcoin could not update its historical high was its main competitor, ethereum, which drew investors' attention. (More on this below).

QCP Capital expects bitcoin to reach $74,000 and update its ATH (All-Time High) in the coming months. According to the company's economists, institutional acceptance of cryptocurrency is accelerating, and improving conditions in the global economy create conditions for capital inflows into risky assets. The US presidential election, scheduled for 5 November 2024, is also starting to have a strong positive impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Cryptocurrency themes continue to strengthen in the pre-election rhetoric of candidates seeking to gain the votes of the crypto community, which, according to NYDIG, numbers more than 46 million citizens in the US, or 22% of the adult population. Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner of Dragonfly Capital, believes that in such a situation, the administration of President Joseph Biden will soon be forced to ease its policy regarding the digital asset industry. A complete turnaround is not to be expected, but a softening of the position will still occur, Qureshi said.

CNN has recently reported on upcoming debates between Biden and his competitor, Donald Trump. The incumbent president will have to answer a number of uncomfortable questions about the harsh policy towards the crypto industry, which led to the outflow of cryptocurrency capital, the closure of large companies, and high-profile lawsuits. From Donald Trump, who turned the topic of cryptocurrency into a weapon against his opponent, in addition to attacks for the current state of affairs, loud pre-election promises can be expected, which could lead to significant volatility in the crypto market. Possible participation of Elon Musk, who expressed willingness to become a moderator, and independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., should enliven the debates, the first round of which is scheduled for 27 June, and the second for 10 September.

The main beneficiary of the past week was not bitcoin but ethereum. On Monday, 20 May, news reached the media that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asked companies to update Form 19b-4 in applications for launching spot Ethereum ETFs in an accelerated manner. After these news, the financial agency Bloomberg immediately raised the chances of such funds being approved from 25% to 75%. Against this background, the leading altcoin quickly outpaced the flagship cryptocurrency in terms of growth rates.

The deadline for the first two applications from VanEck and Grayscale was Thursday, 23 May. Shortly before the X hour, ETH/USD reached $3,947, showing a growth of almost 30% in three days. According to Coinglass, the amount of liquidations and forced closures of short positions on crypto exchanges amounted to $340 million. A total of 78.8 thousand positions were liquidated, and the largest individual liquidation occurred on the HTX exchange for the ETH/USDT pair for $3.1 million.

The SEC did not disappoint expectations and on 23 May approved not two but a total of eight applications for the issuance of spot ETFs based on Ethereum and gave the go-ahead for trading and listing these funds on exchanges. According to Variant Investments Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky, this step signals a "significant shift in US crypto policy, possibly more important than the ETFs themselves." This may also mean that recognizing ethereum as a commodity, the regulator will not categorize many other altcoins as securities. According to Rekt Capital, the market is already on the verge of an altcoin rally, the peak of which is expected in July.

Experts expect significant capital inflows after the listing of ETH-ETFs and believe that billions of dollars will be invested in derivatives in the first week after trading starts. Analysts from QCP Capital believe that the altcoin rate in the short term can rise to $4,000 and exceed $5,000 by the end of the year.

An even bolder forecast is given by Standard Chartered Bank economists. They expect capital inflows into such funds in the first year to range from $15 to $45 billion (2-9 million ETH). In this case, the fund's demand will lead to the asset's rate rising to $8,000 at a bitcoin rate of $150,000. Moreover, if market dynamics are positive, by 2025, the price of Ethereum will reach $14,000, and bitcoin's rate will increase to $200,000.

As of the evening of Friday, 24 May, BTC/USD is trading at $69,900, and ETH/USD at $3,735. The absence of an immediate pump and some drawdown of this pair on 23-24 May can be explained by the fact that everyone who wanted to has already managed to buy ethereums ahead of the SEC's historic decision. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.55 trillion ($2.42 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) has not changed and remains in the Greed zone at 74 points.

And in conclusion of the review, forecasts from Artificial Intelligence. The latest version of GPT-4o from OpenAI believes that the price of bitcoin on 1 August 2024 will be in the range of $76,348 to $89,108 "considering current market factors and historical trends." GPT-4o's competitor, the anthropic AI model Claude 3 Opus, has formed an even more optimistic vision, designating the range between $105,072 and $167,808 by the indicated date.

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/