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Hot forecast for GBP/USD from August 5, 2021 Today, in terms of the economic calendar, a meeting of the Bank of England is scheduled, during which no changes in the parameters of monetary policy, including the interest rate, are expected. Investors are most interested in comments during the meeting, which may lead to speculative manipulations in the market. During the US session, weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published, where they predict a reduction in their volume, which is considered a positive factor and may lead to a strengthening of dollar positions. The GBP/USD pair, following the correction pattern from the psychological level of 1.4000, reached the support of 1.3900, where there was a slowdown and as a result, a rebound in the price. The pivot point of 1.3900 was tested twice for strength by the quote, which indicates interest in sales from market participants. The volatility of the currency pair at the beginning of the trading week is 61 points, which is considered a low indicator and may indicate the process of accumulation of trading. Expectations and prospects The downward development of the price according to the correction scenario is still relevant in the market. But in order to confirm the sellers' intentions, the quote needs to stay below the 1.3870 mark. In this case, it will open in the direction of 1.3825-1.3780. The upward development will be relevant in the case of holding the price above the level of 1.4000 on the daily period. In this scenario, the correction course will end, and the upward cycle from the local minimum on July 20 will be prolonged to new levels. A comprehensive indicator analysis signals a sale relative to the short-term and intraday periods, due to the price movement within the 1.3900 level.

Forecast for USD/JPY on August 4, 2021 USD/JPY Yesterday, the yen continued strengthening against the dollar and overcame the target level of 109.20. The Marlin Oscillator is declining and the price is expected to move towards the target of 108.35, but for this the yen still needs support from external markets, which is now weakening. Yesterday, the US stock index S&P 500 gained 0.80%, this morning the Chinese Shanghai Composite added 0.69%, only the Japanese Nikkei 225 lost 0.16%. The dollar index is in a neutral position. Consolidating above 109.20 may lead to growth to the nearest target of 109.80. On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to develop inside the wedge, the exit from which statistically predominates downward, but due to the reversal of the signal line from its lower border, a double convergence of the price with the oscillator has formed, and this is already a sign of an upward breakthrough. The result is an uncertain situation, although rather an expectant one. The price movement in either direction can be fast and deep, so investors are in no hurry to get ahead of events. Together with the market, we will also wait.

Another trillion dollars for the American economy Yesterday, the leading US stock indexes fell slightly, but in general they continue to be near their absolute highs and can update them any time. All three leading indexes, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ Composite, maintain upward trends. We have already mentioned earlier why this is happening. First, the Fed continues to buy bonds and mortgage-backed securities from the open market, saturating it with liquidity. And all the cash immediately flows into the most profitable stocks that can provide profit to their investors in the future. Moreover, the profit is not even a dividend, but a profit due to a constant increase in value. The dividends of almost all American companies are already below the current inflation. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to make a profit from dividend payments in the near future. However, since investors do not have much choice, and stocks are the most common investment tool, it is the stock market that capital continues to flow. At the same time, the US Senate agreed on a new package of assistance to the US economy. Previously, it appeared under the name "infrastructure package". It can be recalled that Joe Biden offered two stimulus packages for the American economy, each of about $2 trillion. As you can see, the final version of the first package is half as small. However, we have not yet seen the second package, which is the "social" one. The infrastructure package will be aimed at investing in roads, bridges, ports, the internet, and other facilities over the next 5-8 years. It is noteworthy that the source of the formation of this package is planned to be tax revenues, but not the attraction of loans. In other words, the US government will not climb into even greater debts to finance this $1 trillion package. Of course, we cannot judge where this money will come from. In America, they really like to live on credit, and the size of the public debt in the United States already exceeds the volume of GDP. Simply put, the States owe more money than their economy is worth. In fairness, it should be noted that about half of the debts are debts to themselves. Simply put, the American government owes American investors, various American funds, the Fed, and so on. For example, the United States owes China or Japan only $1 trillion, which is not so much. Thus, a default is unlikely to threaten Washington. Moreover, the money is spent on improving infrastructure, which will attract new investors to America even more in the future. The Fed can also print money in almost any volume without fear of hyperinflation, since the dollar remains the world's number one currency. One way or another, the US economy continues to accelerate and will continue to do this for many years to come.

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 2 Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair Euro fell on Friday despite good GDP and inflation reports from the Euro area. Trading recommendations for August 2 EUR / USD will again move depending on the economic reports that the Euro area will release today. Strong data on manufacturing activity will lead to a price increase, while a weaker than expected report could result in another decline in the market. Then, in the afternoon, a similar report will be published from the US. This time, if the data expectations exceeds, dollar will regain its strength, which could lead to a decline in the pair. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1882 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1920. Demand will increase if the Euro area publishes strong economic data. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1857 and 1.1818, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area in order to bring about a market reversal to 1.1882. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1857 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1818. A decline will occur if the Euro area releases weak economic reports. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. It is also possible to sell at 1.1882 and 1.1920, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area in order to provoke a market reversal to 1.1857. Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Pound did not hit the local high last Friday. To be more specific, it was the multiple failed attempts to break through 1.3975 that led to the closure of many long positions in the market. Trading recommendations for August 2 Pound will trade today depending on the data on UK manufacturing activity. If the figure turns better than the forecast, then GBP/USD will increase rather sharply. Then, in the afternoon, a similar report will be published from the US. This time, if the data exceeds expectations, dollar will regain its strength, which could lead to a decline in the pair. For long positions: Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3910 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3956 (thicker green line on the chart). GBP/USD will climb up if UK publishes good PMI data. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3885 and 1.3846, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area in order to set off a market reversal to 1.3910. For short positions: Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3885 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3846. A decline will occur if UK releases weak economic reports. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. It is also possible to sell at 1.3910 and 1.3956, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area in order to trigger a market reversal to 1.3885.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Trading recommendations for novice traders for July 30, 2021 Economic calendar for July 30 Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have preliminary data on inflation in Europe, where it is predicted that consumer prices will rise from 1.9% to 2.0%. Given the growth of the European currency over the past days, inflation indicators could have already been taken into account in the quotes. Inflation in the EU - 09:00 UTC We study and analyze • The consumer price index is prepared by Eurostat, which determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services for a given period. This indicator is considered a key indicator for assessing inflation. From the point of view of fundamental analysis, the rise in inflation is a positive signal for the national currency, but when consumer prices rise faster than forecasted, it is not considered the best signal. Trading plan - EURO/DOLLAR for July 30 Analyzing the current Euro/Dollar trading chart, you can see that the resistance level at 1.1900 puts pressure on buyers, which leads to a slowdown and a rebound in the price. In this situation, traders consider two possible scenarios of price development at once: The first plot proceeds from the natural basis of the past, associated with the resistance level of 1.1900, which contributes to the increase in the volume of short positions. In simple terms, traders are looking at a rebound from 1.1900 towards 1.1830. The second plot assumes that the correction from the pivot point 1.1750 will remain relevant in the market and after a short stagnation along the 1.1900 level, it will still be broken by the price along an upward trajectory. For the trading scenario to coincide on the market, the quotes must hold higher than 1.1915 in a four-hour period, this will open the way in the direction of 1.1950-1.1975. Trading Plan - Pound/Dollar for July 30 Analyzing the current Pound/Dollar trading chart, you can see that the area of the psychological level of 1.4000 acts as a resistance in the market, which leads to a slowdown and a rebound in the price. The logical basis of the past associated with this level can play into the hands of sellers, which will lead to an increase in the volume of short positions. In simple terms, the rebound stage may well lead to a downward move towards the 1.3900 level. An alternative scenario for the development of the market will be considered by traders if the price is kept above 1.4050 in the daily period. In this case, the chances of buyers will increase to return the quotes to the area of the local high of the medium-term upward trend.

USD rises ahead of Fed's meeting The US dollar fell slightly due to durable goods orders data. Shortly after, it was trying to strengthen against a basket of six major rivals. Today, the most anticipated event of the week will take place - the FOMC meeting. Yet, many experts think that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is unlikely to announce certain changes to the monetary policy. So, his testimony will hardly surprise market participants. Moreover, the Fed will clarify its position in the Jackson Hole meeting which is scheduled for September. However, investors are still awaiting the current meeting with bated breath. The main question is how the market will react to the Fed's meeting. Currently, China's stock market is in the spotlight. It has collapsed significantly due to the ongoing tightening of regulation on large IT companies. Sharp fluctuations in China's equity market may adversely affect stock markets in other countries. Hence, demand for safe-haven currencies is rising after the fall in government bond yields. Treasuries are declining despite expectations of the reduction in the bond-buying program. Usually, this would lead to an increase in government bond yields. The greenback seems to have resumed bullish momentum. It may soar to new highs amid turmoil in the market. Besides, the US currency may strengthen if the Federal Reserve hints about the probable reduction of the bond-buying program. The yen rose moderately following a sell-off in China's stock market. The rebound of the Japanese stock market from the recent low was much more modest in comparison with other countries. The US dollar index is growing moderately before the Fed's meeting. Maybe traders have already started factoring in Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks. The EUR/USD pair, as the main barometer of risk sentiment in the market, opened the trading day with a decline. Yesterday, it remained almost unchanged. The pair may even climb to 1.1900 if the Fed's meeting outcome does not stir panic in the market. If Powell does not provide new comments about the bond-buying program, the euro will continue to fluctuate between the levels of 1.1700 and 1.1800 with possible rebound to the 19th mark. Investors are certain that the Fed will not reveal anything new until the Jackson Hole meeting in autumn where it will discuss whether to raise the debt ceiling. Experts believe that the euro will rally in the near future. For instance, economists at Commerzbank assume that the pair may return to the area of 1.1860-1.1930. Strong resistance levels are located at 1.1884 and 1.2008. These level may halt the pair's growth. After breaking through 1.1750, the next target will be the area of 1.1704–1.1600.

European stock markets closed lower The British FTSE 100 fell 0.42%, the German DAX dropped 0.64%, and the French CAC 40 fell 0.71%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX 35 lost 0.83% and 0.87%, respectively. Dassault Systemes shares gained 1.3%. The French software developer has improved its financial forecasts for 2021 amid growing software sales. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA fell 0.6%. The world's largest luxury goods manufacturer increased revenues by 56% in the first half of the year, while net profit jumped 10 times. Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc shares fell 8.4%. The British company, which produces and sells hundreds of household chemicals and medicines, received a pre-tax loss in the first half of this year and reduced its revenue. Just Eat Takeaway.com gained 4.3%. A shareholder in Cat Rock Capital has called on the Dutch food delivery service to strike a merger deal with other major global players in the industry. The leaders of growth among the components of the Stoxx Europe 600 index were securities of the British chemical company Croda International Plc, which jumped 5.6%. Meanwhile, the leaders of the fall were the shares of the Swiss-American manufacturer of computer peripherals Logitech International SA, which fell 9.9%. Investors are awaiting the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), which will be summed up on Wednesday, as well as reports of large American companies, including Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Starbucks Inc.

Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 27, 2021 Analysis of trading charts from July 26: The EUR/USD pair managed to show an upward interest, but it was limited by the range of 1.1750/1.1830 previously set in the market. To simply put it, the quote still follows the sideways amplitude. Trading expectations from July 26 considered the strategy of breaking through one or another border of the side range (1.1750/1.1830), but the signal was not confirmed, and the quote is still moving in the established range. The GBP/USD pair still managed to resume the upward movement after 30 hours hovering around the interaction area of trade forces of 1.3750/1.3800, keeping the quote above the level of 1.3800. Considering the upward movement from the pivot point of 1.3570, market participants retraced the pound sterling by almost 100% relative to the decline from July 16-20. Trading expectations from July 26 considered both a rebound and a breakdown relative to the area of 1.3750/1.3800, thereby giving the opportunity to stay in sync with the market. Trading recommendation for EUR/USD on July 27, 2021 Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, one can see that the quote has been within the lateral range of 1.1750/1.1830 for more than 150 hours, which focuses a lot of attention from speculators. In this case, market participants are focused on the outgoing impulse relative to one or another border of the established range, which will indicate the next price movement in the market. Expectations and prospects: Traders consider this if the price is kept below the level of 1.1750 in the direction of 1.1700. Traders consider this if the price is kept above the level of 1.1830 in the direction of 1.1900. Trading recommendation for GBP/USD on July 27, 2021 As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, it can be seen that there is a slight stagnation within the area of 1.3800/1.3845, which indicates that buyers are hesitant to take further actions. The reduction in the volume of long positions may be a local manifestation in the market due to the recent acceleration. To confirm buyers' intentions, the price needs to hold above the level of 1.3850, which will open the way towards 1.3900. If the upward interest is limited, and the quote manages to return below the level of 1.3780, an increase in the volume of short positions is not excluded, and this will cast doubt on the next growth. • Short positions or Short means sell positions. • Long positions or Long means buy positions.

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 14, 2021 The euro fell by 83 points on Tuesday, which created some ambiguity in the technical interpretation of this movement. The high rate of decline, due to which the Marlin oscillator slowed down with a decline, on the one hand, forms a double convergence on the daily chart, on the other hand, the signal line of the oscillator has approached the lower border of its own channel and is preparing to overcome it. Here, theoretically, convergence may develop, for which the price needs to reach the March low of 1.1705, but the oscillator may continue to develop in the global descending channel, and then the price may reach the target level of 1.1465 and even 1.1300. But we consider this scenario as the main one. Thus, yesterday's low at 1.1772 is a signal level - price drift below it opens the target at 1.1705. Further movement to 1.1640 is possible. No peculiarities observed on the four-hour chart, there are no reversal signals, the price is below the balance and MACD lines, and Marlin develops a decline. We are waiting for the price at the nearest target level of 1.1705.

Trading recommendation for EUR/USD on July 13, 2021 Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, one can see the amplitude price movement within the resistance area of 1.1880/1.1895, as if there is a cumulative effect in the market before a new round of acceleration. Sell signal Traders will consider this if the price is kept below the level of 1.1835, which will open the way to the support level of 1.1800. Buy signal Traders will consider this if the resistance area of 1.1880/1.1895 is broken, which will lead to further formation of a correction. In this case, there is no need to rush. We consider buying positions above the level of 1.1900, with a prospect of 1.1950-1.2000. * The resistance level is the so-called price level, from which the quote can slow down or stop the upward movement. The principle of constructing this level is to reduce the price stop points on the history of the chart, where the price reversal in the market has already occurred earlier. * The accumulation process is a price fluctuation in a closed amplitude, where at the moment of a breakdown of a particular stagnation border, a local acceleration in the direction of breakdown often occurs. Trading recommendation for GBP/USD on July 13, 2021 As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, it shows the price movement within the deviation of the level of 1.3900, where market participants still view it as resistance. Sell signal They have been considered by traders since yesterday, where sell positions may have already been opened. If no deals have been opened, it is advised to wait for the price to hold below the level of 1.3835. The prospective target is 1.3785-1.3750. Buy signal It is considered by traders as a prolongation of the existing correction, but entering the market will be possible after the price holds above the level of 1.3950, with a prospective target of 1.4000. What is reflected in the trading charts? A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each individual candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative time period: the opening price, the closing price, the maximum and minimum prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future. Things to remember: Golden Rule: It is necessary to figure out what you are dealing with before starting to trade with real money. Learning to trade is so important for a novice trader since the market will exist tomorrow, next week, next year, and the next decade.

Analysts predict an imminent collapse of bitcoin to $10,000 Experts of the cryptocurrency market say that the current position of bitcoin is difficult to call stable, and soon BTC risks falling back to the level of $ 10,000 at all. Today, investors do not have a single reason to buy the first cryptocurrency or keep it in the portfolio. In their disappointing scenarios, analysts rely on historical data, when during the past falls, the value of BTC sank by 80%. Experts confidently call the current position of the main digital coin a collapse. Traditionally, this term is used to describe the fall of the cryptocurrency by 70-80%, which corresponds to the price range of $ 10,000-15,000. Recall that in recent months, the first digital currency has already fallen from a record $ 60,000 to $ 33,500. The main downward factor for bitcoin was pressure from Chinese regulators. Known for his indifferent attitude to the cryptocurrency market, Elon Musk criticized the blockchains of the main digital coin and Ethereum for the low transaction speed and high costs. At the same time, the founder of Tesla warmly supported Dogecoin and called it one of the most actively used digital currencies in the world. In general, analysts call the current situation of the cryptocurrency market today "the summer calm before the storm". The current dynamics of the bitcoin price with significantly reduced trading volumes are traditionally considered a dangerous signal. When the market is affected by an insignificant number of open positions – any minor incident can lead to a grandiose sale.

Pound - "Vaccine Champion": Prospects and Hopes for GBP The British currency remains relatively stable, trying to keep the gained positions and build up new ones. In the medium and long-term planning horizons, experts expect the pound to rise, despite its limited growth potential. Currently, the British currency has sunk slightly against the background of disappointing macro statistics. The GBP sales started after the publication of reports on UK GDP (0.8% with an expected 2%) and low industrial production (0.8% with a forecast of 1.5%). On the morning of Friday, July 9, the GBP/USD pair was trading near 1.3775, but later lost some of its gains. According to analysts, sterling is stuck among local lows, near the powerful support level of 1.3754. Experts believe that in the event of a breakdown of the strong resistance level of 1.3794, bullish sentiment will increase in tandem. While maintaining the moderate dynamics of the GBP/USD pair, it will remain within the range of 1.3754-1.3794. This assumption is partially realized, giving the pound hope in the medium term. However, by now the GBP/USD pair has fallen to 1.3763, leaving no attempts to rise. The British currency's hopes are supported by currency strategists Credit Suisse, who expect the GBP/USD pair to recover to 1.3940, and then to the round level of 1.4000. The bank emphasizes that in the near future, it is possible to form a peak in the area of 1.4000, the breakthrough of which will lead to an enhanced recovery of the pound. Positive sentiment regarding the prospects for sterling is supported by analysts at Credit Agricole CIB Research. The bank supports the "bearish" trend of the British currency, which will continue in the coming weeks. "The GBP has gone from an investment vehicle for generating 'Covid-19 vaccine alpha' in the FX markets to a hedge against the resurgence of the pandemic in recent weeks. The rapid fall from grace of the hitherto G10 FX 'vaccine champion' warrants a cautious stance on the currency in the near term," Credit Agricole CIB Research emphasizes. The popularity of the British currency is promoted by positive changes in the country's economy. The UK is on the way to an economic recovery, the signs of which are a shortage of labor and rising wages. It should be noted that the salary increase is the fastest since 2014. The continuation of the existing trend will force the Bank of England to curtail the monetary stimulus program, which will lead to the strengthening of the GBP. Earlier, at the end of 2020, the UK showed the worst economic result among developed countries, but now much has changed. At the moment, England is among the top 5 most vaccinated countries (67% of the vaccinated population). Success in immunization allowed the British authorities to declare the complete lifting of restrictions in a week and a half, on July 19. With regard to the target inflation rate of 2%, the Bank of England maintains the same position, the regulator believes that finding the indicator within 2% is quite natural. An increase in this indicator will require the regulator to curtail the monetary stimulus program. If the Bank of England does this before the Federal Reserve, the pound will receive an impetus for further strengthening in the medium term.

Forecast for USD/JPY on July 8, 2021 USD/JPY Yesterday, the yen traded in a 40-point range and closed the day at the opening level below the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator strengthens the urge to leave its own channel downward. What is noteworthy: the dollar index rose by 0.19% yesterday, stock indices also rose in general (Dow Jones 0.30%), with the exception of second-tier stocks (Russell 2000 -0.70%). The Russell 2000 index is often a leading direction indicator for major indices. And in today's Asian session, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index is already decreasing by -0.57%. It is possible that investors' expectation of a fall in the stock market worries them a lot, this decline has been talked about more and more recently. But be that as it may, the surpassing yesterday's low of 110.41 opens the way to the first target at 109.80. This is the main scenario. On the four-hour chart, the price is holding back before hitting the 110.41 signal level. The price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines. Marlin is in the downward trend area. We are waiting for the attack in order for the price to go down. The alternative scenario is difficult. To do this, it needs to go above the MACD line on both charts. On the H4 it is 111.02.

Protective Assets: Gold or Cryptocurrency? Goldman Sachs experts are confident that in the future Ethereum will be able to take the place of bitcoin as a means of saving. According to the bank, Ether has more potential than bitcoin, due to the extensive ecosystem and more diverse options for the practical application of this cryptocurrency. At the same time, neither bitcoin nor ether can yet overtake gold, which remains the leader among all defensive assets. Since cryptocurrencies, unlike gold, are too volatile, which is incompatible with the concept of a safe haven asset. However, experts clarify that gold can be viewed as a defense against inflation, and cryptocurrency – against inflationary risks. Moreover, the very competition between cryptocurrencies also prevents them from squeezing gold in the status of a defensive asset. And this is not the whole list of «disadvantages» of digital assets. For example, analysts at the Bank of Singapore consider volatility, low confidence and lack of regulation to be the main obstacles to the spread of digital assets as a means of saving. However, if these problems are solved, bitcoin and ether may well replace gold.

Above $1,800: Gold rises in price for sixth session in a row On Tuesday morning, the price of gold bars was able to finally break through the psychological mark of $1,800. At the time of writing, the noble asset rose 1.07%, or $19. Its price was $1,802.3. Silver also showed a confident positive trend. The asset rose by 0.88%, jumping to the level of $26,735. According to analysts, the main catalyst for the growth of the precious metals market is the weakening dollar. On Tuesday, the US currency continues to lose its superiority against its competitors. Gold has been growing for the sixth consecutive session, drawing strength from other sources as well. The decline in 10-year US bonds and the difficult epidemiological situation in the world give a good boost to the yellow asset. The new strain of the delta coronavirus increases the risk of a slowdown in economic activity in a number of Asian countries, which strengthens the position of gold as the main safe haven asset. In addition, the precious metal received significant support last week from the US labor market. The sudden increase in unemployment prompted investors to think that perhaps the US Federal Reserve will not rush to change the current course of monetary policy, keeping interest rates at the current level. If this scenario is confirmed, bad days will come for the US currency again, unlike gold, for which such a development of events will be an excellent springboard for growth. Meanwhile, some analysts associate the current dynamics of the precious metal with a technical correction. The yellow asset is recovering losses after a sharp collapse last month. However, if significant negative factors appear, its price may decline again. Now, investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Tomorrow's comments about inflation and interest rates may turn gold around, as it was last month. Back in June, the regulator predicted the probability of a rate hike in 2 years.

Magnetic Pound: GBP attracts investors. Forecast grid Recently, the British currency has attracted active interest from most investors. Experts believe that the reasons for this popularity are fatigue from the excessive volatility of the dollar and the relatively stable geopolitical situation in the UK. Despite the active build-up of long positions in USD, the dollar cannot boast of stability. This is hindered by conflicting US macroeconomic data released last week. According to analysts, the dollar will receive an additional growth impulse if market players increase the number of long positions in USD. Against this background, the GBP looks advantageous, since it is now in the focus of investors' attention. The growing interest in the British currency is due to the expectation of successful results of mass vaccinations in the UK. According to experts, the current situation with the spread of COVID-19 and its new strain remains tense. According to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in the near future, the British authorities will determine the scope of the fourth stage to ease restrictions. Last week, Sajid Javid, UK Minister of Health, noted that coronavirus restrictions would be lifted no earlier than July 19. In this situation, the British currency has lost some of its positions. Last Friday, July 2, the pound gained 0.5%. At the end of the second quarter of 2021, the pound remained in positive territory, having increased by 0.37%. Throughout the past week, the pound has tried to maintain the positions it has gained. Last Friday, July 2, a strong support level near 1.3760 was formed in the GBP/USD pair. According to experts, bearish sentiments will continue in the tandem in the medium term. However, the bulls are determined and are not going to give up their positions. At the end of last week, they dominated the market, but now the situation may change. At the start of trading on Monday, July 5, the GBP/USD pair was trading at 1.3821. However, on the approaches to the strong resistance level of 1.3852, the growth of the British currency slowed down. Later, experts recorded the beginning of the consolidation of the GBP/USD pair. At the moment, analysts consider it expedient to buy sterling. In the event of a breakdown of the powerful resistance level 1.3852, you can count on breaking the barriers 1.3925 and 1.3980. Experts are optimistic about the short-term and medium-term prospects of the pound sterling. Currency strategists at Bank of America Global Research believe that the pound will maintain a positive trend until the end of 2021. The bank expects further cyclical growth of the British pound until the end of 2022. The GBP will be supported by such factors as strong economic growth in the country, the "hawkish" attitude of the Bank of England, as well as excess global liquidity and low currency conditions.

Stock Asia is trading in positive territory According to IG Singapore-based market strategist Yeap Joon Rong, a breakthrough in infrastructure spending talks overnight lifted spirits as spending has historically been a positive factor for the markets. Areas that depend on economic recovery will show strengthening. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index by 8:23 GMT + 2 increased by 0.7%. Among the leaders in the growth of quotations are the shares of the automobile company Mazda Motor Corp. (+ 8.7%), electronics manufacturer Panasonic Corp. (T: 6752) (+ 4.8%), steel makers Kobe Steel (+ 4.5%) and Nippon Steel Corp. (+ 4%), producing perfumery Shiseido Co. (+ 4.2%). The price of securities of the chip maker Advantest Corp. is also rising. (+ 1.5%), investment and technology SoftBank Group (T: 9984) (+ 1%), consumer electronics manufacturer Sony (+ 1.4%) and automaker Toyota Motor (+ 0.1%). Panasonic, which makes lithium batteries for electric vehicle maker Tesla, sold its entire stake in the American company last fiscal year, which ended in March, the Nikkei reported Friday. According to him, the amount received could be about $ 3.88 billion. By 8:28 GMT + 2, China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 1.1%. In particular, a significant increase in the course of trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is shown by the quotations of securities of the Internet company Meituan (+ 4.3%), brewery Budweiser Brewing Co. APAC Ltd. (+ 3.9%), Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. (+ 3%). In addition, shares of online retailer Alibaba Group (+ 2.2%), Internet giant Tencent Holdings (+ 1.9%), oil companies CNOOC (+ 2.2%) and PetroChina (+ 1.85%) are gaining in price. ... At the same time, the cost of the car manufacturer Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. (-0.8%), pharmaceutical Sino Biopharmaceutical Ltd. (-0.9%) and sporting goods manufacturer Anta Sports Products (-0.9%). The South Korean Kospi Index rose 0.5% by 8:22 GMT + 2. South Korea's manufacturing business confidence index reached 98 points in June, up from 96 points a month earlier. This is the highest level since April 2011. In the non-manufacturing area, the indicator remained at 81 points. The market value of one of the world's largest chip manufacturers, Samsung Electronics Co. rose 0.25%, while the market value of automaker Hyundai Motor fell 0.2%. Australian S & P / ASX 200 added 0.5% by 8:23 GMT + 2. Capitalization of the world's largest mining companies BHP and Rio Tinto (LON: RIO) rose 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair Three buy signals appeared in the market on Wednesday, but all of them had to be ignored because they came when the MACD line was at the overbought area. There were no other signals for the rest of the day. Trading recommendations for June 24 Euro rallied on Wednesday amid good reports from the Eurozone and weak data from United States. And today, this buying pressure may continue, especially if IFO releases strong assessments in Germany's economy. Otherwise, euro will post a decline. Then, in the afternoon, data on US jobless claims may bring demand back to dollar, which will accordingly lead to a drop in EUR / USD. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1940 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.1991. Strong reports from Germany may set off a rally. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1916 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1856. Pressure could return at any moment as the pair is currently overbought. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

American stock indices rise 0.2-0.8%, Nasdaq hits new record Speaking to the US Congress on Tuesday, Powell reiterated his view that the acceleration in inflation in the country is likely to be temporary, noting that the US Central Bank will continue to support the economy. The U.S. economy is showing steady improvement, according to his speech at the House of Representatives Coronavirus Subcommittee. US employment growth will pick up in the coming months and inflationary pressures will ease as the US economy continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Powell said. The lending programs adopted by the Federal Reserve at the height of the crisis have freed up more than $ 2 trillion in funding that helped cut job losses in companies, nonprofits and local governments, he said. Powell's comments, released Monday night, eased financial markets' fears about the Fed's imminent withdrawal of stimulus measures due to uncontrolled inflation in the United States, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) chief John Williams said on Monday that he is not ready for the Fed to ditch the support it provides to the economy amid uncertainty over the pace of recovery from the pandemic. John Williams said the economy is recovering at a fast pace and the medium-term outlook looks very good. However, the data and conditions have not improved enough for the FOMC to abandon a monetary policy that actively supports the economic recovery. US existing home sales declined 0.9% in May to 5.8 million homes on an annualized basis, the National Association of Realtors said in a report on Tuesday. Thus, the decline was recorded for the fourth month in a row. As a result, the indicator dropped to an eleven-month low - from June 2020. Meanwhile, compared to May last year, resales jumped by 44.6%, which is primarily due to the low comparison base due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at this time last year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 68.61 points (0.2%) to close the market and amounted to 33945.58 points. A day earlier, the indicator showed the maximum rise in percentage terms since the beginning of March. Standard & Poor's 500 rose by 21.65 points (0.51%) - to 4246.44 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 111.79 points (0.79%) to 14253.27 points, which is a new record for the close. The leaders of growth in trading on Tuesday were the shares of large technology companies. Netflix Inc. rose 2.4%, Amazon.com Inc. - by 1.5%, Apple Inc. rose 1.3%, Microsoft Corp. - by 1.1%, Facebook Inc. - on 2%. Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, gained 0.4%, despite the fact that the European Commission launched a formal antitrust investigation against the American Google, in which it intends to assess the facts of abuse by the company of its leading position in the online advertising market. Stock quotes of the American GameStop Corp. jumped by 10%. The owner of a chain of video games and consumer electronics stores raised about $ 1.126 billion by placing 5 million shares at market price. The proceeds from the sale are planned to be used for general corporate needs, as well as investments in growth initiatives and strengthening the company's balance sheet. Market value of Blackstone Group Inc. increased by 0.1%. The American investment fund buys for $ 6 billion Home Partners of America, which specializes in the provision of single-family homes for rent. Sanderson Farms Inc. added 10.3% in price. The American poultry producer is considering selling the business amid growing demand for chicken products, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing knowledgeable sources. Capitalization of Exxon Mobil Corp. increased by 1.9%. According to Bloomberg, citing sources, the company will reduce the number of employees in its American offices by 5-10% per year over the next 3-5 years, using a performance assessment system to identify low-productivity employees.

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair Two buy signals appeared in the market on Monday, but the first one had to be ignored because it came when the MACD line was at the overbought area. Meanwhile, the second signal appeared when the MACD line was moving upwards from zero, so euro was able to climb by as much as 45 pips. But there were no subsequent signals because euro did not reach the target value. Trading recommendations for June 22 Although euro rose a bit on Monday, further growth is very unlikely because today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech, which will most likely bring demand back to dollar and accordingly, put pressure on risk assets. Powell might discuss future actions on monetary policy, as well as shed light on the possibility of scaling down the bond purchase program. During the European session, ECB Board member Philip Lane will also deliver a speech, which may help euro break above all-time highs. Reports on EU consumer confidence and US home sales will also be released, but all this will be no match to Powell's statements. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1919 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.1965. However, a price increase is very unlikely because the upcoming speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will most likely bring demand back to dollar, which will push risk assets into a bear market. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1895 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1851. Pressure will return on the pair if the Eurozone releases weak economic reports. A massive drop may also occur after the Fed press conference, provided that the statements of Jerome Powell bring demand back to dollar. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair A sell signal appeared in the market last Friday, but it had to be ignored because it came when the MACD line was at the oversold area. Nonetheless, it set off a strong bearish trend, where if traders had short positions, it was easy to earn around 30 pips of profit. Trading recommendations for June 21 Pay attention to the upcoming economic reports from the ECB and Bundesbank. Positive projections will help euro rally, while weaker data will resume the decline in EUR / USD. Then, in the afternoon, the Federal Reserve will hold a press conference, where if they announce future changes on monetary policy, dollar will continue to rise, while pound will collapse further. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1876 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.1942. Any rise in EUR / USD is going to be seen as a good opportunity to sell, so be careful when setting up transactions. And before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1840 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1775. Pressure will continue on the pair, and the breakout of yesterday's lows will form a new wave of decline in the market. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

EUR/USD. Fed woke up the dollar Markets reacted to the FOMC meeting as if they were genuinely surprised by the shifting of the federal funds rate hike from 2024 to 2023. Did investors really believe that the Fed would turn a blind eye to rising inflation and remain the most peaceful central bank in the world? If so, they were in for a serious disappointment, resulting in a 1.8% collapse in the EUR/USD over the course of two trading days. To prevent the recurrence of the 2013 taper tantrum, the Fed promised to inform in advance of all changes in monetary policy. In fact, the Central Bank has let its guard down, and the fact that rates may be raised twice in 2023 has become a real thunderbolt for investors. Short positions on the US dollar began to collapse en masse, which led to the fall of the EUR/USD to the base of the 19th figure. The confidence of the market majority that the main currency pair will soon reach the level of 1.25 is gone, and Nordea predicts a fall in the euro to $1.15 by the end of the year against the background of the outperforming dynamics of US inflation over European inflation. In my opinion, what happened was what should have happened. The Fed could not look at inflation at the level of the 1990s indefinitely. Its previous passivity could be explained by disappointing statistics on American employment, but in the near future, the situation in the US labor market risks a serious change. Judging by the dynamics of vacancies, the gap between potential and actual employment will be filled quickly. If this does not happen, wages will increase dramatically. Both options are potentially bullish for the US dollar. How can the euro respond to the US dollar? Because of the Fed, investors forgot that thanks to the accelerated vaccination in the EU, a boom in economic growth is expected in the eurozone in the second half of the year. That Brussels successfully sold the first bonds from the European Rescue Fund, while the demand at the auction was off the scale. That after the ECB meeting, the members of the Governing Council recalled that the emergency asset purchase program will end in March 2022. That next year, the currency bloc will surpass the United States in terms of GDP growth. I do not think that the "bulls" on EUR/USD will just throw a white flag. The key events of the week to June 25 will be the speeches of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell, as well as the releases of data on European business activity, the German business climate, and American orders for durable goods. The market needs the dust from the shocks to settle, and then it will determine the direction of further movement. Technically, only the return of EUR/USD quotes above 1.198 will revive the scenario of the transformation of the blue "Shark" to 5-0, followed by the continuation of the rally to the targets on the "Wolf Wave". With this option, purchases will become relevant. If it is not possible to catch on to 1.198, there is a scenario with the implementation of the target by 88.6% according to the model of the red "Shark". It is located near 1.175, so we use a sell strategy on pullbacks.

The Fed's rhetoric caused BTC to "stumble". Is its failure a short-term phenomenon? The first cryptocurrency did not stay away from the main event of the current week – the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). However, the decisions taken by the regulator tripped bitcoin, which demonstrated a downward trend. On the evening of Wednesday, June 16, the main digital asset fell to $38,100, but later regained some losses. On the morning of Thursday, June 17, the first cryptocurrency was trading near $39,200, losing 2.8% over the past day. The driver of the sharp decline in bitcoin was the results of the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Recall that the US regulator kept the key rate at the level of 0-0.25% per annum, and also left low interest rates until the moment when the level of employment and inflation will be near the target 2%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve extended the program of asset repurchases in the amount of $120 billion per month. The publication of the Fed report contributed to a noticeable decline in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. To date, the capitalization of the digital asset market has decreased by 2%. Experts are afraid of further subsidence, although they record minor signs of stabilization. Experts note a long-term medium-term correction for bitcoin, which continues to increase. According to analysts, the crypto market has tested the lower limits of the long-term trend in the BTC (near the support level of $34,972) and continues to recover. On the morning of Thursday, June 17, the BTC/USD pair was trading near $39,197, trying to expand the boundaries of the current range. The market for virtual cryptocurrencies has repeatedly tried to turn upward, acting within the short-term trend. According to experts, the possibility of breaking the upper limit of this range ($43,402) is quite achievable. However, the implementation of this plan is difficult at the moment, although in the near future it is possible.

Oil rises continuously on the back of the news from the USA and Europe Today, the world oil market demonstrates steady growth following a spectacular rise in the past week and a general three-week increase against the background of an improvement in the global situation. The main upward factor for the positive dynamics remains the prospects for demand for oil in developed countries, which is permanently increasing due to high rates of vaccination and the lifting of restrictive measures. Thus, US residents began to actively return to work, gather in companies and visit crowded places. In addition, the average daily air traffic in the United States, for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, has stepped over the level of 2 million passengers. According to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, world oil demand will return to the dock level by the end of next year. This year, according to IEA experts, demand will grow by 5.4 million barrels per day - up to 96.4 million barrels per day, and in 2022 - by 3.1 million barrels per day. In its Friday report, the agency said that OPEC and its allies must increase oil production to ensure the required level of supply in world markets. At the same time, analysts cite multiple positive news from North America and Europe that are opening after the pandemic quarantines as the reason for the bright growth of the oil market over the past week. At the time of writing this material, the oil market is showing the following indicators: the price of August Brent oil futures on the London ICE Futures Exchange was at $73.35 per barrel, exceeding the previous session's closing level by 0.91%. The cost of July contracts for WTI crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange NYMEX increased by 0.78% - $71.46 per barrel.

Stock Asia is trading without a single dynamic As a result of the next meeting of the leadership of the American Central Bank, in addition to the traditional statement on the rate and volume of asset redemption, economic forecasts will be published, as well as expectations regarding further dynamics of interest rates. Experts believe that the Fed will not give signals about plans to gradually reduce the volume of redemption of bonds earlier than in August-September this year. At the same time, a dot plot - that is, a chart that reflects the individual expectations of the Fed's Board of Governors and the heads of the Federal Reserve Banks regarding interest rates - could show that all 18 central bank leaders expect at least one rate hike in 2023. According to Marcella Chow, global markets strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, at some point ignoring inflation concerns will no longer convince investors, so the focus will be on what the Fed says about its expectations for economic growth, inflation and interest rates. The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index climbed 1.01% by 8:37 GMT + 2. Among the leaders of the increase in quotations are shares of Eisai Co. (+ 6.2%), NEC Corp. (+ 4.9%) and Taiyo Yuden Co. (+ 3.9%). Market value of consumer electronics manufacturer Sony Group Corp. growing 1.4%, semiconductor manufacturer Advantest Corp. rises by 1.8%. The leaders of the decline are J. Front Retailing Co. (-2.9%), Kajima Corp. (-2.6%) and IHI Corp. (-2.4%). The price of securities investment and technology SoftBank Group Corp. fell 0.2%, Asia's largest apparel retailer Fast Retailing Co. decreased by 0.2%. The Chinese Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.75% by 8:42 GMT + 2, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.71%. The most significant losses during trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange were incurred by the shares of the restaurant chain Haidilao International Holding (-4.2%), the manufacturer of power tools Techtronic Industries Co. (-3.5%) and biologics manufacturer Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. (-3.2%). Consumer electronics manufacturer Xiaomi Corp. down 0.4%, one of the key players in the PRC's Internet services Meituan fell 1.6%. The leaders of growth were shares of the manufacturer of electric vehicles BYD Co. (+ 4.5%), which produces traditional cars Geely Automobile Holdings (+ 3.4%) and China Mengniu Dairy Co., the largest dairy producer in the country. (+ 2.5%). Internet giants Tencent Holdings and Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) Group Holding gained 0.6%. The South Korean Kospi index rose by 0.15% by 8:57 GMT + 2. Capitalization of one of the world's largest chip manufacturers Samsung Electronics Co. increased by 0.4%, another industry representative SK Hynix Inc. rose 1.2%. The price of shares of the automaker Hyundai Motor Co. dropped 0.2%, Kia Corp. practically do not change in price. Australian indicator S & P / ASX 200 added 0.96% by 8:57 GMT + 2. Representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) came to the conclusion that it is too early to consider the issue of curtailing the bond buyback program, according to the minutes of the June meeting of the Australian Central Bank. As a result of the June meeting, the RBA kept the base interest rate at a record low level of 0.1% per annum, as most economists believed. At the same time, the leadership of the Central Bank confirmed its commitment to maintaining a super-soft monetary policy at least until 2024, when inflation is expected to return to the 2-3% range. The market value of the world's largest mining companies BHP Group and Rio Tinto rose 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively.