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CFTC report: US dollar's massive sell-off before the FOMC meeting. Overview of USD, EUR, and GBP Monday's focus is on PMI reports from the US, the UK, and the Eurozone, which will answer the question of whether inflationary pressures are weakening or increasing, as well as what impacts the sharply increased speed of the spread of COVID-19 has had on the economy. According to the CFTC report published on Friday, the US dollar underwent massive sales during the reporting week. The cumulative long position decreased by 7 billion, which is one of the largest weekly dollar drawdowns since the summer of 2020, and fell to 13 billion – the lowest since September. Almost all currencies, except the Swiss franc, increased their positions against the US currency. The pound and the euro are having the largest surge. Markets show mixed dynamics. Stock indices ended the past week in the red zone, a number of industrial commodities (oil, copper, iron ore) were also slightly in the red zone, and UST yields declined and dragged the global yield indices with them. So far, it can be said that the markets are noticeably losing enthusiasm as the Fed meeting approaches, which means an increase in demand for defensive assets. EUR/USD ECB President, Christine Lagarde, said at the virtual conference in Davos that the Central Bank did not expect GDP growth, labor market recovery, and high inflation at the beginning of 2021. However, she does not see a threat due to rising inflation and assumes that it will decline to 2% by the end of this year. The CFTC report showed a sharp increase in demand for the euro, whose net long position increased by 2.627 billion to 3.48 billion during the reporting week. The estimated price continues to grow steadily. If we compare the plans of the Fed and the ECB, they are clearly not in favor of the euro. The Fed is likely to start raising rates in March and raise them 4 times by the end of the year, and then start reducing the balance sheet by the middle of the year. On the contrary, the ECB is expected to complete the PEPP program in March. The APP program will also end within a year, but the ECB rate increase is not expected at all until the end of 2023. Accordingly, the rate differential will increase significantly in favor of the US dollar, which will lead to a decrease in the EUR/USD exchange rate in the middle and long term. But why aren't investors frantically buying up the US dollar then? Nordea did a bit of research into the impact of the Fed's rate hike cycle on the euro and came to the surprising conclusion that there was no direct correlation. If there was a direct correlation (the Fed raised rates by a total of 175p and the euro fell from 1.20 to 0.90) in 1999/2000, then in the 2004/06 increase cycle, there was no connection at all between the rate and the euro rate. Moreover, after the end of the Fed cycle, the EUR/USD rate turned out to be higher than before the start of the cycle. Accordingly, it is too naive to expect that the euro will react strictly according to the rule. The increase in the settlement price so far only indicates that there is no growth in demand for the US dollar, despite the tightening of rhetoric. Technically, the euro did not manage to go above the channel border, which means a signal for an attempt to update the low, but the CFTC report and the dynamics of GKO rates indicate the opposite. Focusing on investors' behavior, it can be assumed that a decline in the EUR/USD after the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting will not happen. The support level of 1.1186 formed at the end of November will remain. A movement to 1.1484 is more likely. GBP/USD The pound is under short-term pressure after the release of weak retail sales data on Friday, lowering inflationary expectations. On the contrary, the CFTC report turned out to be confidently bullish for the pound, the growth of long positions by 2.465 billion allowed to completely liquidate the net short position. The settlement price is directed strictly upwards. The possibility of Boris Johnson's voluntary resignation did not arouse any interest among traders, since it is such a small event in the current realities. It can be assumed that if the downward correction ends, the pound will try to find support in the 1.3520/30 zone and continue growth with the target of 1.3830. The breakdown of this resistance will technically mean an upturn.

Robinhood will launch cryptocurrency wallets The company's blog posts on Thursday revealed that Robinhood Markets Inc is deploying cryptocurrency wallets for 1,000 users, allowing them to send and receive cryptocurrencies through their brokerage accounts. Last year, the Menlo Park-based online brokerage laid out plans to start testing cryptocurrency wallets with a goal to wider use in 2022. Out of the 1.6 million people on the crypto wallet waiting list, the top 1,000 can now exchange their cryptocurrency from Robinhood for external crypto wallets. The new feature also connects digital asset owners to the blockchain ecosystem. According to the company's terms, Beta testers will have a daily limit of $2,999 for total withdrawals and 10 transactions. They will also need to enable two-factor authentication. Robinhood plans to expand the program to 10,000 customers by March 2022. Robinhood's customers have long been asking for cryptocurrency wallets, which allow them to participate more broadly in blockchain-based ecosystems to be able to buy virtual assets such as non-fungible tokens (NTF) on the Ethereum network. The company will be required to report fourth-quarter earnings on January 27.

Most Asia-Pacific indicators show growth Today most of Asian indicators demonstrate growth. The Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng indices were up by 0.29% and 2.34% on the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges. Meanwhile, another Chinese indicator - the Shenzhen Composite - declined by 0.35%. The Japanese index Nikkei 225 increased by 1.15%, Korean KOSPI climbed by 0.53%, Australian S&P/ASX 200 went up less than others by 0.14%. China's central bank decided to reduce the interest rate to 3.7% from 3.8%. In December 2021, the reduction of the rates occurred for the first time in almost 2 years. This was done in order to reduce the costs of companies and support the economy of the country. Chinese companies Country Garden Services Holdings Co. gained 15.76%, Meituan climbed by 8.49% and Haidilao International Holding, Ltd. increased by 7,67%. Xiaomi Corp. and Geely Automobile Holdings, Ltd. also gained 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively. Investor sentiment was also positively affected by the release of economic data from Japan. The data showed that Japan's exports increased by 17.5% in December 2021. At the same time, analysts had expected an increase in exports by 16%. Economists attribute export growth to increased demand for steel, automobiles and semiconductors, as well as settlement of supplies. Imports increased by 41.1%, but according to expectations, their growth is estimated at 42.8%. Among Japanese companies, Konami Holdings Corp. increased by 6.02%, Nexon Co. raised by 5.96% and Itochu Corp. gained 5,17%. Fast Retailing Co., Ltd. and Nintendo Co., Ltd. rose by 2.3% and 2.9%, respectively. At the same time, traders remain concerned about the spread of coronavirus in the world and the tightening of restrictive measures, which many states are forced to take. The closest attention is focused on China's attempts to reduce the number of COVID-19 infections to a minimum on the eve of the Chinese New Year and the Winter Olympics. Following the growth of the Korean stock exchange, Kia Corp. increased by 0.1% and Hyundai Motor Co. gained 0.3%, as well as LG Corp. climbed by 1.3%, while Samsung Electronics Co. fell by 0.1%. Australia's unemployment rate fell. According to the latest data released last month, unemployment fell to 4.2% from 4.6%. This was due to the removal of restrictive measures aimed at preventing of the spread of COVID-19. Notably, this figure is the lowest for the last 14 years. According to forecasts, it should have decreased only by 0.1%, to 4.5%. Amid this positive news, BHP Group securities increased by 3.1% and Rio Tinto - by 3.2%.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 19, 2022 Here are the details of the economic calendar on January 19, 2022: The only news in the macroeconomic calendar yesterday was the indicators on the UK labor market, which came out not bad at all. Here, the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%. At the same time, the number of applications for benefits in the period of December fell by 43.3 thousand, with a forecast of 38.6 thousand. Only the employment data have a different result. It only rose by 60 thousand against the predicted growth of 125 thousand. Meanwhile, the growth of wages slowed down from 4.9% to 4.2%, which is noticeably worse than the forecast of 4.3%. This served as clear negativity in the report. As a result, the overbought pound did not react in any way to the report on the labor market and continued to decline. In terms of the information flow yesterday afternoon, reports began to arrive about a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in Germany. This was the impetus for speculation in the market, which led to a sharp weakening of the euro. January 19 economic calendar: The UK's inflation data was published today at 7:00 Universal time, where it rose from 5.1% to 5.4%, with a forecast of 5.2%. Rising consumer prices once again prove that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates. During the US trading session, the construction sector data of the United States will be published. The number of building permits issued, as well as the volume of construction of new homes, is expected to fall. This is not the best signal for the US economy, but it is still unknown whether this will be a signal for the US dollar to sell-off. Trading plan for EUR/USD on January 19: There is currently a small pullback, which is more like a price stagnation in the range of 1.1310/1.1335. Therefore, it is worth considering an acceleration strategy, where the current stagnation will serve as a lever in the market. We concretize the above details into trading signals: Sell positions should be considered after holding the price above 1.1340 with the prospect of moving to 1.1370. Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.1310 with the prospect of moving to 1.1280. Trading plan for GBP/USD on January 19: In this situation, a stagnation-pullback relative to the level of 1.3600 is possible. This move is still considering the possibility of resuming upward inertia, which will lead to a complete change of trading interests. At the same time, to prolong the correction, it is enough to stay below the level of 1.3570. This step will open up the possibility of a recovery move towards the level of 1.3450.

European stock markets closed trading with strong growth The Chinese economy grew 4% in the last quarter of 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year, the weakest increase since the second quarter of 2020, data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the PRC showed. GDP growth slowed down from 4.9% in the previous quarter, however, exceeded the forecasts of experts who had expected growth of 3.6%. In 2021 as a whole, Chinese GDP increased by 8.1%, which exceeded the country's target of "above 6%". In 2020, according to revised data, the country's economy grew by 2.2%, and not by 2.3%, as previously reported. The composite index of the largest companies in the Stoxx Europe 600 region rose by 0.7% by the close of trading and amounted to 484.51 points. The French CAC 40 added 0.82%, the German DAX - 0.32%, the British FTSE 100 - 0.91%. Spain's IBEX 35 and Italy's FTSE MIB rose 0.36% and 0.52%, respectively. Unilever Plc, one of the world's leading food and home goods manufacturers, has made its third offer to acquire a joint venture between GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) PLC and Pfizer Inc. for the production of consumer health products for 50 billion pounds ($68.4 billion). Unilever lost 7% and GSK rose 4.1%. The Spanish bank Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA will return more than 7 billion euros to its shareholders in 2021 and 2022. In particular, the bank plans to complete a €3.5 billion share buyback program launched last year and pay dividends for two years. Banco Bilbao's share price rose 0.3%. Shares of Air France-KLM added 0.6%. The air carrier has asked the EU authorities to make more flexible rules for the use of slots (the period of time that an airport allocates an aircraft for takeoff or landing - IF) at the region's airports amid restrictions imposed on flights due to COVID-19. Share prices of Credit Suisse Group AG fell 2.3% on news that the bank's chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio is leaving his post after violating covid restrictions. The value of British pharmaceuticals Clinigen Group PLC fell 0.8% after it became known that Triton Funds was buying the company for 1.3 billion pounds ($1.78 billion). Fraport AG lost 0.5%. Frankfurt am Main Airport (Germany), operated by Fraport, served 24.8 million passengers in 2021, which is 32.2% higher than the previous year, when passenger traffic collapsed by 73% and reached its lowest level since 1984. Meanwhile, passenger traffic remains 64.8% below pre-pandemic 2019, according to a Fraport press release.

Note the changes in trading hours on January 17, 2022 Dear traders, Please pay attention to some changes in trading hours due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day, a public holiday in the US. On Monday, January 17: Trading CFDs on Shares will be unavailable all day long. Natural gas futures (#NG.z) trading will be closed at 21:30. Crude oil (#CL.f, CL.z) – at 21:15. Trading Indices: UK100.x, UK100.i – early close at 23:00; JP225.x, JP225.i, NASDAQ100.x, NASDAQ100.i, SPX500.x, SPX500.i, DJ30.x, DJ30.i – early close at 20:00. A trading schedule will be back to normal from the following day, January 18. If you have any questions, do not hesitate to contact our Support Service.

US dollar is looking for support to rise again The US dollar started the new week with multi-directional dynamics. It remains between two contradictory actions. In such a state, experts say that it is difficult for the US currency to rise, but there is also no reason for it to decline. At the end of last week, the above-mentioned currency surprised the markets by making sharp multi-directional movements in an attempt to consolidate with the status of a protective asset. However, these efforts were unsuccessful. Currently, the US dollar has regained some equilibrium, although some unorganized dynamics remain. The Fed's hawkish intentions regarding multiple rate hikes this year have contributed to the US dollar's multi-directional movements. Against this background, it held to the previous rebound in the EUR/USD pair, as investors included several rate increases in its price. Experts said that the aggressive rhetoric of the regulator contributes to a sharp strengthening of the US dollar, combined with an increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds. The current yield on ten-year Treasuries has risen from the previous 1.772% to 1.793%. Experts believe that this provides additional support to the US currency. On Monday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading in the range of 1.1418-1.1419, trying to rise slightly. However, it is hard for it to reach new peaks right now. Experts note the predominance of the "bearish" mood in the EUR/USD pair, which was facilitated by the breakdown of the mirror level of 1.1465 last Friday. At this point, the bulls are trying to control the situation. Their offensive will be successful if the levels of 1.1478 and 1.1529 are reached. However, the "bullish" scenario is likely to be canceled if the bears consolidate at the support level of 1.1401. In this case, the path towards the levels of 1.1353 and 1.1285 will be open. According to experts, multiple increases in the Fed's interest rates in 2022 are necessary to avoid overheating the US economy. If overheating occurs, financial crises are possible, which will have a devastating impact. Markets are still worried about the extremely high level of US inflation (7% in annual terms). According to preliminary estimates, this is three times higher than the pre-pandemic. The reasons for this growth are active monetary stimulus, the disruption of supply chains amid COVID-19, and problems in the US labor market, including higher wages due to a shortage of workers and more frequent job changes. Experts consider raising the interest rate of the Fed as one of the main ways to curb US inflation. Most market participants expect this in March 2022, although some expected it to rise at the next meeting of the regulator, scheduled for January 26. Analysts admit that the Fed's strategy may be more aggressive than expected. The implementation of such a scenario will direct inflation downwards, but will significantly affect US economic growth. Currently, the US currency is trying to rise and consolidate in an upward trend. However, these actions are held with varying success. Concerns about its further decline are provoked by the rising bearish mood on the EUR/USD pair. Traders built up positions for three weeks to buy the US dollar, and then changed tactics to the opposite. Throughout the previous week, large investment funds have reduced USD purchases by 5%. Experts conclude that the continuation of the current trend contributes to the US dollar's further decline.

US dollar is trying to resist the decline amid statistics and high inflation The US currency has to fight the collapse again at the end of the week, resisting the negative impact of several factors, including the problem of macro statistics. Nevertheless, experts are confident that it will recover without much loss. For a long time, this currency remains hostage to high US inflation. It can be recalled that the December macro statistics showed the highest core inflation over the past 40 years. The recent US CPI excluding food and energy in annual terms was 5.5%, which is higher than November's 4.9%. Current macro reports have shown that the expectation of the Fed's decisive action has reached a peak. The current situation practically sharply affected the US dollar, which is trying to resist the impact of negative factors. It has now suffered significant losses, including a key technical breakthrough in the EUR/USD pair. On Thursday, the classic pair broke the resistance line around 1.1386, which limited the actions of the EUR/USD pair since November 2021. The reason for this is the sharp weakening of the US currency, recorded after the release of the December CPI. On Friday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1477, trying to keep its won positions. Experts consider the level of 1.1500 to be the next important resistance area for the pair. This is the previous low of the EUR/USD pair recorded before its massive collapse last November. The current situation is much the same. Today, the US dollar hit its biggest weekly drop in eight months. The reason for this is a sharp reduction in long positions on the USD and the markets taking into account several Fed rate hikes in its price. According to analysts, expectations of decisive action from the Fed do not matter much for the US dollar. Earlier, the US currency collapsed amid a sharp rise in the price of a number of commodities. The only "trump card" it has now will be another search for a safe haven if risk sentiment changes dramatically. The dynamics of this currency are significantly affected by inflation, and most often negatively. The Fed keeps the need to outpace its growth, and this tension has a negative impact on the American currency. However, many experts are optimistic about the US dollar's medium and long-term prospects. Specialists believe that it will systematically strengthen, alternating ups and downs. Analysts summarize that this is facilitated by the continued growth of commodities and the global asset market.

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US dollar continues its growth The US dollar celebrates the victory after the meeting of the Fed, which the markets were looking forward to. It managed to rise and continue the upward trend, despite a temporary decline. The growth of this currency accelerated after the decision of the regulator, which announced the preservation of the interest rate and the completion of incentive programs. It can be recalled that the Fed expected to leave the key rate at 0-0.25% per annum and announced its readiness to double the pace of curtailing the asset repurchase program (from the previous $15 billion to $ 30 billion per month). The implementation of these measures is planned from January next year. According to preliminary calculations, such rates of QE reduction will allow the central bank to fully complete the program by March 2022. According to Fed chairman Jerome Powell, the early elimination of stimulus programs is necessary because of extremely high inflation. Fed representatives believe that the acceleration of inflation in the United States and the strengthening of inflationary pressure amid a prolonged labor shortage significantly affect economic forecasts and the current monetary policy. It is worth noting that the regulator kept rates near zero until the situation in the US labor market improved. Representatives of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) presented an updated forecast on the trajectory of rates, which implies their threefold increase in 2022-2023. Along with this, the authorities expect a gradual decrease in inflation. Experts emphasize that the regulator's forecasts on rates are not a pre-approved plan. This process is determined by the current economic situation, according to which it is adjusted. Against this background, Fed officials came to the conclusion that the most appropriate is a gradual increase in rates. According to experts, the rapid growth of the USD after the Fed meeting occurred against the backdrop of a pronounced "hawkish" position of the regulator. Representatives of the Federal Reserve predict a sharper increase in rates than the market expected. In view of this, US assets rose significantly: the US dollar continued its upward trend, and the leading S&P 500 index interrupted a two-day decline. The current situation favourably affected the EUR/USD pair, which was trading at the level of 1.1284 on Thursday morning. Like the American one, the European currency also felt confident, gradually gaining momentum. It tried to consolidate in the current positions, but to no avail. As a result, the single currency fell to low values. The near-term prospects of the US dollar are quite optimistic. Many experts agree that the Fed helped the US dollar to rise, due to which it received a growth impulse. Analysts said that this trend will continue, since it has enough resources to withstand the difficulties that arise.

EUR/USD: Widening gap between the US dollar and Euro Analysts said that serious problems in the EUR/USD pair are caused by an imbalance between both currencies. Bank of America experts point to the excessive overvaluation of the US dollar and the lack of attention to the euro. Before the Fed meeting, the issue of a fair assessment of the euro and the US dollar is extremely relevant. According to Bank of America reports, the US currency turned out to be overvalued by investors this month, while the euro is undervalued. Analysts believe that this upsets the balance in the EUR/USD pair. The calculations by Bank of America's currency strategists demonstrate that the current greenback estimate is 0.7 points higher than the long-term average, while the euro is 1.1 points lower. These indicators are negatively affected by rising inflation expectations in the United States (up to 6%) and extremely high inflation, which has reached peak values for the last almost 40 years. The current situation increases the degree of tension between the US dollar and the euro. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair experienced noticeable volatility, trading around the level of 1.1270. By the middle of this week, the US dollar maintained its growth, unlike the euro amid expectations of the most important Fed meeting. Despite the growing tension, the dynamics of the American currency are almost unchanged in relation to other key currencies. The euro, on the contrary, has to make a lot of efforts to stay afloat. Experts are afraid of increasing dissonance in the EUR/ USD pair, although there are no serious prerequisites for this. In anticipation of the Fed meeting, many analysts turned to the Fed's updated dot forecast, the so-called dot plot. Experts carefully analyze the data presented in order to predict the rate of increase in the key rate in 2022. According to the previous dot plot published in September 2021, the federal funds rate should be increased once (until December 2022). However, a lot has changed now, so the markets are confident that in the coming year the rate will be raised twice (25 bp at each meeting). Bank of America experts believe that the regulator is able to surprise the markets and raise rates following the meeting on Wednesday, December 15. The implementation of such a scenario will lead to a shock and force you to radically rebuild. On the contrary, if the completion of the asset purchase program goes twice as fast, that is, it will be completely curtailed in March 2022, then the markets will remain calm. It can be recalled that this option is the most expected. At the same time, there is a possibility of another scenario: if the regulator does not raise rates at the current meeting, then it will have to be done twice (by 0.50%) in March next year. The reason for this decision is the overheating of the US labor market. Therefore, most market participants expect the regulator to raise rates in the second half of 2022. At the same time, many investors do not rule out a weakening of inflation next year, despite the persistence of price pressure. A surprise for the market may be the updated December "dot" forecasts of the Fed (dot plot), which allow for the probability of a threefold rate hike in 2022. The implementation of such a scenario will help the US dollar strengthen its position, but stock markets will be under pressure.

European equities closed lower Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.8%, Germany's DAX shed 0.01%, France's CAC 40 shed 0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35 shed 0.5% and Italy's FTSE MIB shed 0.6%. Air France-KLM shares lost 3.4%. The airline said it had paid the French authorities € 500 million in debt repayment totaling € 4 billion. In addition, Air France-KLM agreed with the country's authorities to change the debt repayment schedule: if earlier it had to pay off the debt in full in May 2023, now it will be able to pay it off until May 2025. Germany's Daimler Truck Holding AG, a truck maker, rose 10.7% in its second trading session after divesting from Daimler. JPMorgan analysts have set the target price for the company's shares at 48 euros per share, while Bank of America has set a different price, 40 euros. At the same time, Daimler AG's value fell 0.3% yesterday. The capitalization of the German software developer SAP AG increased by 2.6% after analysts at UBS improved the recommendation on the stock of the company from neutral to buy. Australian biopharmaceutical company CSL has confirmed that it is in talks to buy the Swiss drug manufacturer Vifor Pharma. Vifor Pharma shares jumped 18.5%. Credit Suisse Group AG on Monday announced a structural reorganization and appointed new chief executives for its core divisions. The structure of the bank from next year will consist of 4 main business divisions and 4 regional divisions. Credit Suisse lost 1.8%. Shares in British mining company Rio Tinto fell 0.1%. The company will write off $ 2.3 billion in debt from the Mongolian government to finally move forward with the expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi gold-copper project. The market is awaiting meetings of the world's largest central banks scheduled for this week. The Federal Reserve System (FRS) is holding a two-day meeting on December 14-15, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England will release their decisions on December 16, the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on December 17. The ECB is expected to discuss at the upcoming meeting the future prospects for its asset repurchase programs, while the Fed may decide to step up the pace of its quantitative easing (QE) program, which it launched in November. The Bank of England is likely to keep monetary policy parameters unchanged, as the latest GDP data proved disappointing, and in addition, the country's authorities are introducing new restrictions to contain the spread of COVID-19. The UK National Statistical Office (ONS) on Friday reported a slowdown in the country's GDP growth in October to 4.6% on an annualized basis from 5.3% a month earlier. The statistics released on Monday showed an acceleration in the growth of wholesale prices in Germany in November to a record 16.6% in annual terms. As noted by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis), the growth of wholesale prices accelerated compared to 15.2% in October against the background of higher prices for raw materials and intermediate goods.

American stock indices rose 0.6-1% As a result of the entire last week, it increased by 3.8%, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 3.6%, which was the most significant rise since February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 4%. This is the most significant increase since March. Fresh inflation data was released on Friday, pointing to the fastest rise in consumer prices in the country since June 1982. However, investors hope that the rate of growth in prices has reached or very close to the peak values. Consumer prices (CPI) in the US in November soared 6.8% compared to the same month last year. Inflation accelerated from 6.2% a month earlier and was in line with analysts' forecasts. Thus, the indicator remained above the Federal Reserve System (FRS) target of 2% for the ninth consecutive month. Consumer and tech sectors on Friday posted the strongest gains in share prices among the S&P 500 industry sub-indices. Consumer confidence in the US in December rose to 70.4 points from 67.4 points in November, which was the lowest in 10 years, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan, which calculates this figure. Analysts on average had expected a decline to 67.1 points, Trading Economics reported. At the same time, inflationary expectations for the medium term (next year) remained at the level of 4.9% in the current month, for the long term (5 years) - at the level of 3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday increased by 216.3 points (0.6%) and reached 35970.99 points. The value of Standard & Poor's 500 for the day increased by 44.57 (0.95%) - up to 4712.02 points. The Nasdaq Composite rose by 113.23 points (0.73%), amounting to 15,630.6 points. Costco Wholesale, the operator of the largest network of club stores in the United States, in the first financial quarter, which ended on November 21, increased its net profit by 13% and revenue by 19%, which was better than experts' expectations. The company's shares rose 6.6% on Friday. One of the world's largest manufacturers of semiconductor products Broadcom in the fourth financial quarter (August-October) received financial results above the consensus forecast. The company also announced a massive share buyback program and a quarterly dividend hike. The price of its shares soared by 8.3%. Oracle Corp., one of the world's leading software developers, posted a net loss in its second financial quarter, but adjusted earnings and revenues rose above analysts' expectations. The company's shares jumped 15.6%. Among the leaders of the rise in value among the components of the Dow Jones were Cisco Systems Inc., which rose 3%, Microsoft Corp., which rose 2.8% and Apple Inc., which also rose 2.8%. Meanwhile, Chewy Inc.'s share price fell more than 8% despite strong reporting. The online pet store reported 24% revenue growth in the third financial quarter. The company's net loss in the quarter ended October 31 was $ 32.2 million against a loss of $ 32.8 million in the same period a year earlier. Peloton Interactive fell 5.4% after Credit Suisse downgraded its recommendation to neutral from above the market.

Gold falls while waiting for a strong impulse Gold is stuck again in a narrow price range. On Wednesday, the level of $1,780 seemed to magnetize gold quotes to itself. They were brought into a state of stupor by comprehensive uncertainty. The precious metal ended yesterday's session with a very modest increase. It rose by less than 0.1% or 80 cents. The final price was $1,785.50, although its price reached the high ($1,794. 30) since December 1. Gold failed to gain a foothold at a level close to the key one due to the lack of convincing impulses. At the moment, all the factors that one way or another may affect the pricing of the yellow asset look vague. This concerns the situation with a new strain of coronavirus, the future course of the US Federal Reserve, as well as the risk of a military conflict in Ukraine. Now, the market expects certainty on all these issues. Omicron can still help The panic over the new COVID-19 strain, which has been observed over the past almost 2 weeks, is gradually fading. Investors are again showing interest in risky assets such as stocks. On Wednesday, US stock markets closed in a positive zone after receiving good news from Pfizer. The pharmaceutical company reported that during laboratory tests, 3 doses of its vaccine managed to neutralize the "Omicron" strain. In addition, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that a new vaccine, which, if necessary, will be developed specifically for this COVID-19 mutation, may be ready by March next year. As concerns about Omicron weaken, traders' appetite for a safe haven asset decreases. However, experts believe that now is not the right time to part with gold. According to analyst Ross Norman, the value of the yellow asset may still find support from coronavirus risks in the near future, since investors will focus at the end of the year on the prospect of introducing more serious lockdowns due to the active spread of Omicron. Is the Fed's strategy a real threat? The next meeting of the US central bank on monetary policy will be held on December 14-15. Many analysts are confident that the easing of concerns about the new COVID-19 strain, which is observed this week, actually frees the hands of the US Federal Reserve. Now, all the attention of the regulator is focused on accelerating the pace of curtailing the asset purchase program, which was launched at the beginning of the pandemic. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that it would be advisable not to delay this issue and consider it at the next meeting. Such a rush is due to the fact that the central bank is striving to start raising interest rates as soon as possible and increased inflation no longer seems to the regulator to be a temporary phenomenon. Some experts believe that the trigger may be tomorrow's publication of the consumer price index in the United States. Economists expect annual inflation to rise to the highest level in recent decades. Before the release of important statistics, the yield on US Treasury bonds rose above 1.5%, which put pressure on gold. However, the metal managed to resist a sharp decline and even closed in a positive zone, as the dollar index turned out to be weaker than the euro and fell by 0.5% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, market strategist Ricardo Evangelista predicts that the US currency will appreciate in the coming days. He said that this currency will find support as soon as the Fed's hawkish stance becomes more evident. This will deal a devastating blow to gold. Gold loves geopolitical risks Another important factor in the gold market, which has been closely watched by investors in recent days, is the escalation of the military conflict on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Gold, which loves geopolitical risks, has responded to the long-awaited negotiations with small growth. During the day, it rose by 0.3%. However, there is no significant increase in the demand for a safe shelter in the market now, because "nothing has changed" after the negotiations and there is still great uncertainty around this situation, analyst Jeff Wright said. Meanwhile, Market strategist Jim Vykoff believes gold will ultimately benefit from the meeting's failure to de-escalate Russia's intentions to invade Ukraine. According to him, the situation will become even tenser. This means that safe-haven assets (gold and silver) are likely to be more in demand in the near future.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 12/8/2021 If anyone needed proof that the market was completely disoriented and in complete prostration, the reaction to the data on GDP in the euro area was incredibly clear. The third assessment was in sharp contrast to the previous two, which showed a slowdown in economic growth from 14.4% to 3.7%. So, judging by the latest data, the rate of economic growth has slowed down to 3.9%. In other words, the eurozone economy is doing a little better than it was anticipated over the past few weeks, when they began to publish first the first and then the second GDP estimates. Undoubtedly, this is an extremely positive moment, which should have led to a noticeable strengthening of the single European currency. However, instead, it began to decline actively. Which is absurd in itself. Apparently realizing this fact, a rebound began a few hours later. Yes, such that in the end everything returned to its original values. GDP change (Europe): Today, the picture of the day will be largely similar, due to the release of data on open vacancies in the United States. And it is these data that will become an excellent reason not only for speculation, but also for a noticeable weakening of the dollar. The fact is that until now no one has deigned to revise the official forecast of 10,400,000 open vacancies. In the previous month, there were 10,438,000 of them. But the content of the report of the Ministry of Labor clearly indicates that these very vacancies will be noticeably less. That is, we can talk about a noticeable reduction in the number of open vacancies, which will be interpreted as a deterioration in the situation on the labor market. This is quite enough for a sharp weakening of the dollar. Nevertheless, the very fact of a decrease in the number of open vacancies does not contradict the logic of a strong decrease in the unemployment rate. On the contrary, it is a reflection of a significant improvement in the situation on the labor market. So after the initial outburst, which will be largely emotional in nature, the situation will quickly return to normal. That is, to the starting positions. Job Openings (United States): The EURUSD pair has slowed down the recovery cycle relative to the correctional movement in the area of the value of 1.1227. This led to a stop and, as a result, a reverse movement towards the level of 1.1300. The technical instrument RSI in the hourly period first gave a signal that the euro was oversold at the moment when the 30 line was crossed. After that, a buy signal was received, which was confirmed when the 50 line was crossed from the bottom up. On the daily chart, a downward trend remains, in the structure of which a correction cycle has emerged. Expectations and prospects: Speculative excitement has led to the formation of a V-shaped formation in the market, where the 1.1300 level serves as a resistance. So, in order for the subsequent growth in the volume of long positions to occur, the quote must stay above the value of 1.1310. Otherwise, stagnation may occur. Comprehensive indicator analysis provides a buy signal based on short-term and intraday periods due to the recent bounce in price. In the medium term, technical instruments are oriented towards a downward trend, signaling a sell.

Forecast for GBP/USD on December 7, 2021 The outlook for the British pound's growth looks optimistic. The convergence with the Marlin Oscillator is strengthening, the target of 1.3410 - Fibonacci level of 123.6% is slightly opening. But in order for it to become fully open, the price needs to overcome the immediate resistance of the 138.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3315. Failure could push the price down to the 161.8% Fibonacci level (1.3160). The price convergence with Marlin is formed on the four-hour chart. At the moment, the signal line of the oscillator is crossing the border with the territory of growth. The price goes to attack the 138.2% Fibonacci level and the MACD line. Success will open the specified target of 1.3410. Forecast for AUD/USD on December 7, 2021 In yesterday's review, we identified the Australian dollar's 0.7007/65 range as free roaming territory. At the moment, the price is approaching the upper level of this range, but the price does not show a clear intention to overcome it - the Marlin Oscillator is weakening and shows a sign of a downward reversal. Success, however, will allow the price to hit the 0.7107 target level, which is the Aug 20 low. The price is still in a downward trend on the four-hour chart. Even the leading oscillator Marlin has not yet left the negative zone. It will probably do this when the price moves above the 0.7065 level. But the MACD indicator line is next to the 0.7107 target level, which can slow down the upward movement. Therefore, it will only be possible to count on a medium-term price growth after the price breaks above 0.7107. Overcoming the support at 0.7007 will open the bearish target level of 0.6950. Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia is publishing a decision on monetary policy, so a strong momentum in any direction is possible.

Forecast for EUR/USD on December 6, 2021 Over the last trading day, on Friday, the technical picture for the euro has slightly shifted towards growth. The daily rally was small, only 16 points, but the Marlin Oscillator started advancing, indicating an intention to exit the zone of negative values. This advanced growth is shown in the daily chart with gray rectangles. The probability of price growth, that is, overcoming the signal level of 1.1375 (November 18 high), increases to 60%. Then the 1.1448 target will open. Overcoming it and, accordingly, the MACD line, will become an almost confirmed sign of further medium-term growth. On the four-hour chart, since the opening of the session, the price has gone down, which still creates the risk of a deeper decline. This risk is realized when the price moves below the MACD indicator line, below 1.1254, the target will open at 1.1170. Continued growth is likely to resume with the price breaking Friday's high of 1.1334. Forecast for USD/JPY on December 6, 2021 Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair tried to break above the resistance of the MACD indicator line and the daily price channel line (green) for the third time in three days. It failed once again and ended the day with a decline of 29 points. Now we see that with the support of the declining Marlin Oscillator in the negative zone, the price is trying to overcome the signal support at 112.54. If this happens, then with the greatest probability, the price will go further down to the target of 110.77 - to the lower embedded line of the price channel. The technical picture is more complex on the H4 chart. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the lower border of its own channel, and the line itself is already in the positive area. This is a sign of price growth towards overcoming resistance at 113.20, which corresponds to the MACD line on the daily chart. This will be another exit above this line, and it may no longer be false - the 114.05 target level will be overcome. A decline below 112.54 will automatically mean that the oscillator will exit from its ascending channel to the downside. We are waiting for the development of events.

Is USD dependent on stock market? The US dollar is again undergoing a period of volatility, with rare periods of stability, as USD traders await the US labor market report. Early on Friday, December 3, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1289, below the previous closing price of 1.1299. The US currency edged up slightly before the release of non-farm payrolls, fuelled by concerns over the new Omicron strain, which have now eased. As markets remain relatively calm, the US dollar has strengthened its position in the run-up to the non-farm payroll release. Strong US labor market data would clear the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates early, analysts say. Recently, the US dollar has been moving largely under the influence of key interest rate changes, with safe-haven investment demand affecting it only negligibly. The American currency rate has been highly dependent on the global stock market - a new norm, according to some experts. At this moment, the USD cash flow is determined by equity volatility, as well as risk hedging related to it. Earlier, the inverse correlation was in effect. The Fed's key interest rate is crucial for the market. The yield of US 2-year treasury bonds, which is closely connected with the Deutsche Bank volatility index, is used to determine the future rate. Amid spiraling inflation, investors expect an early rate hike, which would push up the bond yield and the US dollar. The US non-farm payrolls are in focus at the end of the week. The unemployment rate is expected to go down to 4.5%, with non-farm employment projected to increase by 550,000. The amount of jobless claims fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began. Strong US labor market data are unlikely to propel the dollar upward, but it could limit the pessimistic sentiment over the spread of Omicron variant, and allow the Fed to go through with the plan to wind down QE and hike the rates in 2022. While the markets remain somewhat volatile, with strong NFP expectations stabilizing it slightly, the greenback is likely to maintain upside potential. Satisfactory payroll data and the possibility of an earlier end of QE would push the dollar up. According to an outlook by Goldman Sachs, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points three times - in June, September, and December, followed by further monetary tightening. Downside risks for the global economy caused by Omicron would boost demand for USD as a safe-haven, giving it support, Goldman Sachs analysts note.

Is the pound sterling the restless hostage of Omicron? The British currency has temporarily gone into the shadow of the aggressive US dollar and the volatile euro. At the same time, the pound is trying to assert itself, while resisting pressure from the new mutation of the Omicron coronavirus. Before Omicron's appearance on the scene, the key drivers of the global market were traders' expectations about the early curtailment of incentives and a rise in rates. These sentiments have now intensified as the new strain has made its own adjustments. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, announced his readiness to accelerate these processes amid off-scale inflation and general instability. He believes that the new COVID-19 mutation provokes prolonged inflationary pressure. Earlier, the Fed's head agreed that the strongest growth in consumer prices was recorded in the United States, which could push the national economy into the pit of stagflation. Against the background of extremely high inflation in the US, the yield spread between ten-year and two-year Treasury bonds has sharply declined. This indicator turned out to be at a minimum over the past 10 months, which indicates a further downward trend in the GBP/USD pair. In the current situation, the British currency is experiencing serious overloads. Some restlessness of the pound, bordering on confusion, destabilizes the market. According to analysts, it risks becoming a hostage of Omicron. Despite the current difficulties, the pound is trying to cope with the situation. The danger of a new strain of coronavirus for the British economy was noted by one of the representatives of the Bank of England. According to the official, Omicron has called into question the further growth of consumer confidence in the country. Economists fear that the new COVID-19 mutation will provoke a drop in demand for consumer services and logistics problems. At the same time, experts believe that Omicron should not affect the Bank of England's plans for a possible tightening of the PEPP. On Wednesday, global markets and risky assets remained stable. The British currency added 0.17%, reaching the level of 1.3318. However, the triumph was temporary: the pound remained near a one-year low against the US dollar, and then sharply fell to 1.3195. The reason for this fall was the market's doubts about the Bank of England's early interest rate hike. On Thursday morning, the GBP/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.3291. There is currently no clear trend in the pair, and the support level of 1.3263 restrains the bears' dominance. Many market participants are quite optimistic. Investors believe that the new strain of coronavirus will not affect the further recovery of the global economy. The pound is trying to consolidate in this trend and strengthen its current positions. According to UOB Group analysts, the pound may decline to 1.3260 in the coming weeks, although this scenario is unlikely. "A further drawdown of the GBP is possible, but a strong support level near 1.3195 will be a tough nut to crack," the UOB Group believes. According to analysts, the pound is not in danger of serious weakening in the short term.

Technical analysis recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on December 1, 2021 EUR/USD The bears descended to the area of the final border of the monthly Ichimoku gold cross (1.1290) last month. It was not possible to break through the level, the closing of the month was indicated by a long lower shadow of the monthly candle. Therefore, the bulls now have opportunities to develop the rebound from the encountered support. In this situation, it will be possible to make further plans and consider new upward prospects after the formation of a rebound from 1.1290 and consolidation above the important resistance zone of 1.1439 - 1.1492, where several of the strongest levels in the higher timeframes combined (monthly levels + weekly short-term trend + closing levels of the daily Ichimoku cross). Yesterday, the nearest resistance along the way was tested – the daily Fibo Kijun (1.1379). Alternatively, the breakdown of the monthly support at 1.1290 and the update of the November low (1.1186), will allow us to consider continuing the decline and strengthening the bearish mood. In this case, the closest downward pivot point will be the weekly target for the breakdown of the cloud (1.0806 - 1.0960). The bulls in the smaller timeframes limited themselves yesterday to testing the final border of the classic pivot levels and failed to continue the rise further. At the moment, they still have the advantage. Today, their intraday pivot points are set at 1.1402 - 1.1467 - 1.1550 (classic pivot levels). The key support levels, which are now located at 1.1319 (central Pivot level) and 1.1267 (weekly long-term trend), allow the bulls to defend their interests despite the long-term trading in the correction zone. A consolidation below will change the current balance of power and bring back the relevance of bearish targets, such as the minimum extremum (1.1186) and the support of the classic pivot levels (1.1254 - 1.1171 - 1.1106). GBP/USD The bears tried to reach the monthly support (1.3164) at the end of the previous month but failed to test the level or close the month next to it. Nevertheless, November indicated the nearest bearish plans – entering the bearish zone relative to the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.3248) and breaking through the monthly support (1.3164). As for the bulls, it is important for them to keep their position above the current support and attraction zone 1.3248 (lower border of the weekly cloud) - 1.3164 (monthly Fibo Kijun), regain support for the daily short-term trend (1.3351), and also strive to restore their positions to weekly levels (1.3516-76), eliminate the daily dead cross (1.3503 - 1.3586) and rise to the daily Ichimoku cloud. Bullish traders in the smaller intervals failed to consolidate above the key levels and reverse the moving average yesterday, which resulted in the continuing struggle for key levels. Today's key levels are at 1.3286 (central pivot level) and 1.3322 (weekly long-term trend). A movement below the levels gives preference to the bears. Their pivot points are currently set at 1.3203 - 1.3109 - 1.3026 (support for the classic pivot levels). It is worth noting that the aforementioned levels give preference to the bulls. Their upward targets are at 1.3380 - 1.3463 - 1.3557 (resistance levels of the classic pivot levels).

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 30, 2021 Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair once again tested the strength of the embedded line of the price channel of the higher timeframe, it is shown in green on the chart. Now this support was strengthened by the MACD indicator line - the price rebound to the upside turned out to be qualitative. The Marlin Oscillator supports the reversal, but still remains in the negative area. However, the reversal should be confirmed. A visually strong resistance level is the upper border of the consolidation on October 26-November 4 at 114.31. It is also desirable to receive confirmation from the Marlin Oscillator, which needs to move into the zone of positive values. On the chart of the four-hour scale, the bulls' shortcomings, or rather the inadequacy of the work done by them, is seen more clearly. The price is still far below the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is moving up slowly and is still in the negative area. Therefore, the likelihood of another attack on support at 113.13 remains high. We are waiting for the development of further events, the formation of any technical signals or the strengthening of the existing prerequisites. Forecast for AUD/USD on November 30, 2021 The Australian dollar gained 23 points on Monday, the trading range stayed within the 0.7107-07171 levels. Overcoming any of these levels may mean a continuation of the short-term movement: downward to the 0.7065 target (June 2020 high), ascending to the target of 0.7227. The Marlin Oscillator is showing an upward reversal, but it looks weak. On the four-hour scale, the price approaches the magnetic point - to the point where the target level of 0.7171 coincides with the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines. The Marlin Oscillator already anticipates this event with a transition to a positive area, entering a zone of a growing trend. So consolidating above 0.7171 opens the target at 0.7227. This is the main option. If the price moves below the level of 0.7107, an alternative variant will open with a movement to 0.7065.

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 29, 2021 The euro corrected upward by 120 points on Thursday and Friday last week, turning around without reaching the target level of 1.1170. Growth may continue to 1.1375 - the highs on November 18 or slightly higher towards the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator has grown sharply, now it can be in free roaming for some time, which will affect the price in a wide-range sideways movement. So far, this range is defined by the levels 1.1170-1.1375. On the four-hour scale chart, the price managed to get above both indicator lines - above the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator has grown up high, but it is not yet in the overbought zone, so the price has the prospect of reaching the level of 1.1375. The recovery of the bearish trend will occur when the price moves below the MACD line, below 1.1235. But taking into account the situation on the daily scale, there is a significant likelihood of a false price drift under the MACD line, and then, after the target level of 1.1170 has been worked out, the price may again turn into corrective growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak tonight at a social event in New York, tomorrow in the Senate before the Banking Committee, and the day after tomorrow in the House of Representatives. Also tomorrow we will have John Williams, Richard Clarida and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. It may very well be that the risks associated with the emergence of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus will be affected, and then the maturing expectations of 2 or even 3 rate hikes next year will disappear, and the euro will begin to recover its lost positions. Forecast for USD/JPY on November 29, 2021 As a result of Friday's collapse in the stock markets (Euro Stoxx 50 - 4.74%, S&P 500 -2.27%), the yen strengthened against the dollar by 1.72% (197 points). The first bearish target was reached, the price slowed down on the embedded price channel line of the weekly timeframe. Now, according to the main scenario, the price will have to overcome the support of the MACD indicator line at 113.06, after which the 110.75 target will open in front of it - the lower line of the price channel. The Marlin Oscillator has forcefully entered the territory of the downward trend, divergence with the price is formed and confirmed. We look forward to further price reductions. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below both indicator lines - below the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator is already leaving the oversold zone, which tells us about the impending price correction before its further decline. The limit of such a correction is seen as the Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 114.30, which is the November 12 high (checkmark).

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 26, 2021 Yesterday, the dollar against the yen could not withstand the pressure from technical factors and this morning fell to the signal level of 114.71 (October 20 high). After the price drops below this level, the USD/JPY pair may continue to move to the magnetic point at 113.20 - to the point of intersection of the price channel line with the MACD line. The price can overcome the target, since below it is the second target level of 112.74, which is desirable for the bulls to work out if they intend to advance further - to create a false downward movement. To complete the bearish picture, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator does not reach the negative area. Perhaps this will happen when the price goes below the signal level. The price almost touched the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Settling below it, as well as below the level of 114.71, will become a condition for further price movement to the downside. The Marlin Oscillator is already in the negative zone. Forecast for EUR/USD on November 26, 2021 The euro has finally started to form a slight reversal from the target level of 1.1170. The miniature double bottom figure at the Marlin Oscillator on the daily scale has worked. We consider the observed growth so far as an upward movement within the framework of the sideways movement of 1.1170-1.1300. The range, of course, can be extended, the other upper boundary is the 1.1375 level - the peak on November 18. In the next two weeks, this level may be reached by the MACD indicator line. Then either the downward trend will resume, or the price will break above the MACD line and outline a mid-term growth. On the chart of the four-hour scale, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator has entered the positive area. The convergence is fully formed, but it remains to wait for the price to break above the MACD line, above 1.1250. This moment will confirm that the price is in a sideways trend.

Changes to the trading schedule due to Thanksgiving Day in US Dear traders, We would like to wish you a Happy Thanksgiving Day and inform on the slight changes to the trading schedule on November 25-26. November 25th, 2021: Trading US stocks will be closed for the full day. Trading the following instruments will be closed early: At 19:45 GMT+2: Spot Metals #CL.z #BRENT.z At 20:00 GMT+2: SPX500.x, SPX500.i DJ30.x, DJ30.i NASDAQ100.x, NASDAQ100.i JP225.x, JP225.i #NG.z November 26th, 2021: Trading the following instruments will be closed early: At 20:00 GMT+2: US Stocks At 20:15 GMT+2: SPX500.x, SPX500.i DJ30.x, DJ30.i NASDAQ100.x, NASDAQ100.i JP225.i, JP225.x #NG.z At 20:30 GMT+2: Spot Metals #CL.z Please note these changes while planning your trading activity.

Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on November 24 Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but the increase was limited because the MACD line was far from zero. But when a signal to sell appeared, the pair rose even though the MACD line was already in the overbought area. This continued for the rest of the day. The upward movement was around 15 pips. Euro rallied yesterday, thanks to better-than-anticipated reports on manufacturing and service PMI in the Euro area. Meanwhile, the statements of ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos were ignored even though he mentioned the need for stricter inflation control. The observed bullish momentum may continue today if the data on business conditions, assessments of the current situation and economic expectations come out stronger than the forecasts. ECB board member Fabio Panetta will also speak, and it could push euro higher if he mentions inflationary pressures In the afternoon, US will release a report on Q3 GDP, which could raise dollar demand if the figure is revised for the better. Data on jobless claims, income and expenses will also be published, followed by the minutes of the recent Fed meeting. If the protocol does not indicate aggressive intentions of the committee members, demand for dollar will decline. For long positions: Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1253 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1299. Demand will increase if the Euro area reports very strong economic statistics. Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1227, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1253 and 1.1299. For short positions: Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1227 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1185. Demand will decline if the situation with COVID-19 escalates. Weak data from Germany and strong statistics from US will also provoke a decrease in EUR / USD. Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1283, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1255 and 1.1216.