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KostiaForexMart

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  1. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 6, 2019 So far, the euro is moving lower after publishing the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which would weigh on Fed’s decision regarding the interest rate in September. Furthermore, this would reflect the stability of the economy. The main trend is descending on the daily chart. However, the momentum shows its movement rising since the price reversal bottom formed at 1.0926 on September 3. A breakthrough to 1.1164 could shift the trend higher. However, if it moves towards 1.0926 instead, then this will oppose the closing price reversal boot and indicate the continuation of a downward trend. The main range between 1.1164 and 1.0926 with the retracement zone at 1.1045 to 1.1073 offering as a resistance. This limits the short-term movement of the EUR/USD pair. Buyers could test the short-term range at 1.0926-1.1085 in hopes to reach for a much higher bottom with the retracement zone at 1.1005 to 1.0987 as the probable support. Today’s price movement will depend on the reaction of traders at the price range of 1.1045-1.1046 and currently, the price is at 1.1029. If the price remains below the 1.1045, this would mean the presence of sellers and could push the short-term price by 50% at 1.1005 with the next support around 1.0987 to 1.0986. However, moving past the area of 1.0985 would cause the pair to descend around 1.0956 and 1.0941 before the main bottom of 1.0926. On the other hand, a price movement higher than 1.1046 would indicate the presence of buyers and could bring the price upward with the next target at 1.1073 to 1.1074 and then to 1.1085. It could further rise to 1.1119, which is a potential pint for upward movement.
  2. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 5, 2019 Today, ADP data from the US will be published, which will give an initial outlook on the current state of the job market in August. Other than that, some PMI data will be released during the North American session that can also induce volatility. So far, analysts anticipate a continuous growth for the reports. Important talks will take place in early October. On Friday, data on Non-Farm Payroll is scheduled and this will have a bigger impact on the market. Of course, concerns on China-US trade war will still affect the price movement as well. The rally yesterday continued and formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. Overall, the technical outlook shows a breakdown, which is contradicting to the bullish indicator. The direction of the pair in the major resistance level will be relative to the reaction of the market in the current price movement. Important psychological levels are 1.1033 and 1.1053, which shows important support to the pair in August that can become an obstacle for the price to rise.
  3. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 4, 2019 Yesterday, the main level above is at 1.1050. A sustained downward trend from the seller would confirm the descend. The short-term momentum is leaning to the upside. Yesterday, The currency pair showed a bullish candle on the daily chart, which we should look into. In case the pair closes around 1.100 by the end of the day, this will signal further upward movement in the short-term. It seems that the recovery of the major British pound adds pressure to the US dollar that overshadows the EUR/USD pair. Although, we must also keep in mind that the volatility of Sterling can rise by the end of the week amid the political uncertainty with Brexit. Overall, the euro major pair shows a strong uptrend after yesterday’s low. For short-term, it is bullish but extending it a bit shows a bearish outlook. In the meantime, sellers could make use of the recovery.
  4. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 3, 2019 Price movement in the EUR/USD pair is intriguing as it recovered instead of a breakdown, which is unexpected by traders and oftentimes occur much later and outside the range. We cannot be so sure that this would not be the case, although this is possible. One scenario is the oversold state of the EUR/USD pair for a while now. While trading in a range, this gives a signal for the possibility of a pullback. However, the pair is likely to move in the oversold zone for some time. With the euro declining against other bearish currencies, it will be not ideal to search for a pullback towards the medial levels, which was the case last year. The common currency also trades against the lows of the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. As for the case of the sterling pound, it is still pressured with the ongoing Brexit negotiation. I assume that it is highly likely for the attempts for recovery to be faced by the sellers instead of a pullback. We can wait for the resistance to reach at 1.0979 and then a bounce to 1.0911. Nonetheless, no purchases at the present descending motion signals for a technical breakdown but sustained break to 1.1050 opposes a breakout.
  5. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 2, 2019 This week might start with slow trading given the US Labor day. Volatility will probably rise in the latter days of the week, especially with the upcoming US jobs data on Friday and Fed speech. Also, the progress on the Sino-US trade war will still have an effect on the exchange rate. Jus in the previous week, Trump said that the two nations will proceed with the trade talks, which induced a shift in the markets. In turn, this resulted in a decline in the euro major pair. The economic data in the eurozone has actually met expectations of analysts, except for the decrease in the manufacturing sector. Overall, reports from Italy, Germany, and the eurozone are declining in the market. Meanwhile, France showed growth in August but data will remain to be a concern for the euro economy. The decline of the EUR/USD pair on Friday is important as it pushes the rate to a record low over a year. Also, the pair dropped lower than 1.1000 that have an impact on the pair. It seems that the pair proceeds with a decline with the next important support level at 1.0833. It can be said that the trading rate is slightly oversold present levels. Sometimes, unexpected volatility drove the pair unexpectedly at the end of the month, which is the probable reason for the decline last week. If the price proceeds with the recovery, sellers will probably touch on the level of 1.1100. HIgher than that is where the resistance is found at 1.1030, which was previously support. In general, the euro major pair is moving sideways following a drastic drop on Friday. Moreover, volatility will likely be slow with the present US holiday but attempts for recovery will be blocked by sellers around 1.1000 then towards 1.1030.
  6. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 29, 2019 Since the North American session yesterday, the euro major pair has been trading sideways and may even have a bigger move with the upcoming significant data. Concerns on trade wars weren’t as prominent anymore after the recent comment of Trump that both nations are willing to work out the deal. Equity markets are faced with a strong bid in early trading today and countered the decline of the S&P 500 last week. Nonetheless, the euro major pair has had fewer fluctuations with the recent risk sentiment since the return of risk appetite. The support level at 1.1075 keeps the pair to go higher after several attempts of testing in this month. There may also be a slight bounce from here but in general, sellers are leading this week. Although, we cannot see any turn for now. Any attempt to rise was limited at the level of 1.1100. Alternately, in case of a decline, the pair is likely to recover. Moreover, the dollar index (DXY) has also met some sort of resistance. The last figure tested is the level of 98.25 that kept the price lower in April and May. Consequently, the index pulled back by more than 1%. Hence, the dollar and the euro major pair have a likelihood for a slight decline but do far, we can see any technical movement to support this. There has been volatility and the pair has been trading range-bound. Important fundamental, particularly the US GDP and German CPI, are anticipated and will determine the movement of the EUR/USD pair.
  7. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 28, 2019 On Friday, the common currency surged on Friday due to concerns of a trade war. Comments of Trump also caused the recovery of the gains for the pair. Although the appetite for risk has diminished as investors reacted to the comment of Trump. The S&P 500 also met some resistance and acquired a few losses yesterday. Other data such as the consumer confidence from the US yesterday and from Germany earlier this day came out positively that drove yesterday’s trading. Although it seems that the euro major pair is losing momentum. Furthermore, the buyers didn’t get to keep the keep from going down at 1.1100 that may mean weakening of the pair. There are few economic data that may bring volatility in trading, especially with the upcoming GDP data from the US and Germany tomorrow. It may be worrisome for EUR/USD bulls that the price did not stay above the level of 1.1100 on Tuesday. This will likely push the pair higher that may mean an upward turn for the pair. The next downward target will likely be around 1.1075 but there are some hints of exhaustion and the pair will likely move sideways between the European and US session and then breaking slightly lower in the afternoon trading. An important resistance will likely be around 1.1100. Although, it looks like volatility is moving sluggish but may be influenced by the Sino-US trade war. With the important data from Germany and US expected on Thursday, this could induce volatility and could mean a significant move of the pair.
  8. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 27, 2019 The Friday rally of the EUR/USD pair was a result of various events, which means that it is just not solely because of concerns in trade war. Soon after, this has changed as President Trump mentioned trade talks are still ongoing. The common currency faces various risks and has had fluctuations amid the recent shift. Although, this may not be apparent compared to other currency pairs. Trump’s recent comments regarding a phone call between the two nations will likely have an impact on the session ahead. German GDP data showed a drop by 0.1% in the second quarter as expected. The common currency was not affected after the release of data. Another data from France came out, particularly the consumer confidence reaching an 18-month high. In the afternoon, data from the US is anticipated to be released. The euro major pair was found to have a significant confluence of the support with both 50- and 20-MA on the 4-hour chart. For now, the euro major pair is trying to recover from a sharp decline on Monday. It looks like the support level will be found at this level. Meanwhile, the initial resistance level is at 1.1118, which kept the pair lower on Friday.
  9. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 22, 2019 In the beginning, the market reaction induced volatility. However, the euro major pair kept the pair in range and was ahead for the week. At the same time, the future markets have revised lower their expectations for further reduction. Although, they have already priced in another cut in September. The result of PMI data has kept strong bidding at the beginning of Thursday trading. Other data including the Manufacturing and Services PMI figure of France, Germany, and the Eurozone came out better than expected by analysts. The euro major pair rallied upward outside its most recent range amid the release of data and prior to losing a bit of its strength. In the technical analysis, the EUR/USD support level is at 1.1074, which was the lowest daily close in 2019. Also, the US dollar index (DXY) begins to pull back from the resistance level of 98.25. If the pair keeps the price higher than the support level, then there is a higher chance for recovery. However, a break above the 1.1118 mark could confirm the recovery of the pair, which was a horizontal level that drops slightly higher than the range high. Looking at the fundamental news, the ECB will release the Fed minutes today, particularly the PMI figure. Aside from that, the symposium at Jackson Hole will begin today for three days. Hence, the euro major pair will likely trade range-bound but various events could affect the pair and induce a breakout, especially with the Jackson hole symposium.
  10. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 20, 2019 The euro major pair faces pressure for the whole week but still, the dollar strengthened as the DXY index rises higher than the resistance. It was able to close higher than 98.25 daily level, which was the same level that kept the price lower in April and May and almost close to the two-year high. Although the decline is not purely because of the EUR/USD pair as the euro is pressured against major currencies over the past week. Market's attention will then shift to the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. For now, there is the PPI from Germany which is expected to come out higher than the forecast. The levels of 1.1075 (upper) and 1.1118 (lower) were important yesterday. The previous level was kept as sellers entered the market prior to reaching the latter level, which also limited the recovery. The price movement shows weakness, especially in an attempt to test again the support level today. Moreover, it is important to see how far the pair can go and if it will reach a fresh new yearly low prior to the Fed meeting tomorrow. Thus, it may not be wise to push the price lower in the current condition. At a later session, we can expect resistance to continue around 1.1118 amid a rally. It needs to reach the level higher in changing the short-term direction of the pair. A breakdown at 1.1075 opens the yearly low at 1.1027. If it successfully moves lower than 1.1027 today, then we might encounter some stops. In spite of that, the pair might have a difficult time to break the level and keep the flow without a specific driver to cause such movement. There are not many events to look out for in the economic calendar prior to the expected Fed meeting on Wednesday.
  11. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 16, 2019 A bullish morning star pattern was seen after the surge of the EUR/USD pair last week. Yet, the significant support level of 1.1118 is not yet established, which means that the bears can be in control of the movement. This area is important as this held various declines for this aside from a short drop below in latter days of July. On Thursday, US economic data was released that shows better than forecast that supports the US dollar. Retail sales grew by 0.7% in July, more than the 0.3% forecast of an increase. This excludes the automobile and gas, which then prompted the data to increase by 1.0%. Trade balance from Eurostat is also to be released soon. Also, there is the consumer sentiment and building permits from the United States. Although, there are not likely to keep the impact on the exchange rate. The significant level of EUR/USD pair was broken and there will also be not many purchases. Moreover, the pair begins to enter the oversold zone on the 4-hour chart. The support level is around the area of 1.1075, which makes the lowest close on a daily basis for the year. Moving forward, the next probable target is around 1.1027, which was the August low. It is not likely for the pair to break again for another fresh yearly low today, considering few expected fundamental events on the economic calendar. Closing of the pair today is relevant. If the pair manages to keep the current levels, there will be a reverse bullish trend of last week’s reversal pattern. More importantly, this will confirm the resumption of the EUR/USD downtrend. The overall momentum of the EUR/USD pair is downward, although the pair begins to oversell on the 4-hour chart. In comparison to a basket of major currency pairs, the common currency is likely to have its biggest loss. Yet, even if there is a light economic schedule, the news may induce some volatility in the pair.
  12. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 15, 2019 Fed member Bullard’s view of reducing interest rates once again this year remains despite the volatility this week. Investors’ concern rises as the yield curve shows inversion and pressure continues in the equity markets. The markets anticipate the Federal Reserve to take action and ease rates as the inversion outcome hints a possible recession. Yet, Bullard remains firm, shrugging off the market demand. This shows that the Fed would not react in every news about the US-Sino trade war. Although volatility has been apparent in various assets, the euro major pair isn’t exactly one of them as it continues to fluctuate on its average range. Yesterday’s range kept a bearish tone but the expected data to come out more than the technical aspect that pushes the pair. The US retail sales, as well as Philly Fed manufacturing index and unemployment claims, will be released today. The EUR/USD pair moved lower because of a strong dollar and broke the confluence of support. The indicator limits the downward range of the pair that has been going on since early last week and now it is broken. This looks like an obstacle on the upside. At the same time, a horizontal level was seen close to the moving average of 1.1155 that prompted a confluence at the resistance. Below, the major support level is at 1.1118, which keeps the pair higher than April and May. Moreover, this keeps the pair higher in latter July on the 4-hour chart. The pair seems to be testing the lower limit of the descending trend channel, although it may be too early to decide whether it will sustain the downward trend.
  13. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 14, 2019 Given the volatility in the markets, the decline of the common currency markets is nothing compared to the volatility across the markets. Risky assets rose after Trump announced postponing the imposition of 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Nonetheless, the euro major pair keeps in range over a week. The GDP growth dropped by 0.1% in the second quarter, meeting analysts’ expectations. However, this does affect much the rate. Data from Europe came out softer than anticipated, which resulted in the EUR/USD pair to ease lower. It seems that the short-term trading of the EUR/USD pair is headed downward after several attempts on the resistance above. Meanwhile, let us take into consideration a reversal candlestick on the weekly chart after a rally last week. This trend keeps purchases on a decline. The pair is trading between the 100- and 200-MA on the 4-hour chart. Yet, the range remains strong even if it slightly weakened. A horizontal level is found close to the 100-MA at 1.1155. The horizontal level acted as a resistance before and a slight confluence was formed. There is still a strong level around 1.1118, which was tested several times this year. If the pair is able to move lower, this level plays strongly for a decline. Yet, even if there are fundamental news that affects the market, the euro major pair manages to remain in range. Meanwhile, dips can still be bought considering the reversal pattern on the weekly chart.
  14. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 9, 2019 A tweet of US President Trump has once again spiked volatility but trading of EUR/USD pair still remains in the range. He remarked his disappointment in the strength of the dollar due to higher rates than other nations. Looking at the news, three central banks in India, New Zealand and Thailand had reduced their interest rates with 35, 50 and 25 basis points, respectively. German trade balance and French industrial production data came out less than expected at the earlier part of the day, although this did not really have an impact on the trading. Another report on the producer price index will be released at the US session. Although, it doesn’t usually bring volatility. Yesterday the euro major pair remains strong as it did not go down with just right significant resistance confluence. The support level of 1.1188 keeps the pair from moving higher so far. Closing above this level today could lead to a reversal morning star candlestick on the weekly chart. Hence, the bidding of the pair will likely continue until next week. Moreover, it is logical for the pair to continue range-bound trading given the quiet economic calendar. As we noted earlier, the resistance is important while the 200-MA moves in a descending trendline on the 4-hour chart. But at the same time, the 50- and 100-MA are also considered important. Overall, the euro major pair will persist to trade within the range and probably attempt to hold the pair prior to the upcoming trading session. The pair is likely to have a reversal pattern on the weekly chart.
  15. EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 7, 2019 Recently, the news concerning the trade war between the US and China urged traders to act relative to the Chinese exchange rate. Some resistance establishes from 200-MA on the 4-hour daily chart and a strong confluence of 50- and 100-MA to 1.1230. A push higher than the resistance level took place on the intraday and closed below it. A Doji candle indicates exhaustion and builds a pullback. A bearish engulfing candle was seen just after the European open. It seems that the pair is descending. A strong bullish tone pushes the rally of the pair at the beginning of the week. This also opens a chance for a reversal in the short-term. The pair returned to the 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. This can give a sign when the pair reaches the top price for the week. In general, volatility can spark concerning the trade war. Also, there is not much going on in the economic calendar, except for the speech from Fed member Evans which remains the focus in the trading session ahead.
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