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USDCAD chart outlook with NFP impact The USD/CAD, often referred to as the “Loonie,” is one of the most actively traded forex pairs, reflecting the economic strength of the United States and Canada. Today’s market sentiment is largely driven by critical U.S. data releases, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, as well as Canadian employment and labor data. A stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market report would reinforce expectations of Federal Reserve hawkishness, especially with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaking later today, which could boost the U.S. Dollar. On the other hand, robust Canadian employment data could strengthen the CAD and put downside pressure on USDCAD. Given that both countries are releasing labor market indicators today, volatility and sharp price action are highly likely, making this session crucial for traders focusing on the USD CAD daily chart, fundamental analysis, and forex price action strategies. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. From the technical perspective on the USD/CAD H4 chart, the price has been correcting after a strong bearish trend line but has recently shifted into a bullish structure. It bounced from the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which acted as a powerful support zone, and has already broken above the 0.618 level, currently trading near the 0.786 retracement. This area aligns with the Ichimoku Cloud’s upper band (Leading Span B), creating a significant resistance zone near 1.3816–1.3851. If price sustains momentum above this level, it could retest the 1.38799 Fibonacci extension resistance. However, the Ichimoku Cloud shows mixed signals: the Span B is flat, while Span A is rising with a thick cloud, suggesting consolidation risk. Meanwhile, the %R (14) at -39.07 is pointing sharply downward, hinting at potential short-term weakness before a new bullish attempt. Traders should closely watch whether price can hold above the 1.3815–1.3850 resistance zone to validate a continuation toward 1.3880 and beyond. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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Date: 4th September 2025. Weak US Employment Data And The Upcoming NFP. The US Dollar remains the day’s best-performing currency; however, significant risks remain as employment data continues to fall. The US JOLTS Job Openings fell from 7.36 million to 7.18 million. The figure is significantly lower than the previous month and analysts’ expectations. Are investors expecting the US Dollar to fall? The court decision that US tariffs are not legal continues to be a big factor for the US Dollar. President Trump has asked the US Supreme Court to review and overturn a federal appeals court decision that struck down his April 2025 trade tariffs, which ranged from 10% to 50% on imports. The lower court ruled the tariffs unlawful, saying they exceeded the powers granted to the presidency under a 1977 law. The development is supporting the US Dollar in the short-term; however, economists advise that this will not be enough for the Dollar to maintain its momentum. For this reason, the worrying picture which is developing within the employment sector is not having its traditional impact. However, investors note that tomorrow’s NFP data can have a significant impact. Today’s JOLTS Job Openings is known as a lagging indicator, but the fact that the figure has fallen to the lowest since March 2021 would not provide economists with confidence. In addition to this, the US also saw its Weekly Unemployment Claims rise to 237,000, higher than the previous month and projections. Economists expect tomorrow’s Unemployment Rate to rise to 4.3% and for the NFP Change to add 75,000 jobs. If the figures do not beat projections, the US Dollar may struggle to maintain its value, similar to today. The US Dollar is currently the best-performing currency of the day, while the worst-performing currencies are the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen. Some currency pairs, such as the USDJPY, are trading at a key resistance level, as is the US Dollar Index. For this reason, traders should be cautious if tomorrow’s NFP data prompts recession fears and more frequent interest rate cuts. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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