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United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)


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In the middle of forex trading the Asian session on Friday, the pressure against the USD continued after 4 consecutive days plummeted and is now included in the deepest red zone during the last 10 days. But fundamentally the USD is expected to be out of the zone entered the European session.

 

Sentiment disappointment over US interest rates were unchanged by the Federal Reserve later this month and also blurring of the next Fed rate hike signal is still a severe blow to the US dollar. As a result, the fundamental outlook for the US dollar so gloomy and currency rival steals his strength to rally. But if the BOJ decided this afternoon something hawkish then the rate of the yen may change disappointing.

 

As the catalyst driving the dollar today, will release some economic data that largely will give a strong positive sentiment. Some data may be encouraging dollar is data Q2-2016 advance US GDP, Employment Cost Index q / q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. However, there is data on the rate of the dollar is trying to tap the data Chicago PMI.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies in the Asian session trade was a negative move after it opened lower at 96.65 and rolling positions at the position 96.48. Previous trading the US dollar index has dropped by 0.2 percent.

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After a successful rally for four consecutive days, the US dollar forex trading Asian session returning show strength against all of its major counterparts except the yen. Technically, the dollar was already in the condition of saturation point so ready for correction and fundamentally today propulsion main rivals little show of strength.

 

The strength of the dollar to rally sentiment was obtained from the US non-farm payrolls in July rose above expectations at the end of last week. US labor market conditions can provide power for the Fed to raise interest rates again this year.

 

For the movement today, America is no significant data affecting the dollar but in the European market would be no fundamental economic data as a rival in the European region are expected to lift the euro and sterling exchange rates. No release of data such as data tonight NFIB Small Business Index, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q / q, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q / q and Wholesale Inventories m / m.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trading the Asian session after a positive move opened higher at 96.31 and rolling positions at the position 96.41. Previous trading the US dollar index rose to 0.1 percent.

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In the middle of forex trading on Asian session this weekend USD dollar make a negative move after being opened higher by market who choose profit-taking before deciding the next position. Throughout the market today presented economic data releases that almost all put pressure on the dollar and rivals.

 

The fundamental data that affect the movement US dollar against its rivals throughout the day will be released during the New York session and is expected to a negative US retail sales data and PPI data, while positive will come from the data survey UoM consumer sentiment data.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies have weak position on Asia session and moving with the trend of consolidation after it opened higher at 95.922 and the rolling positions at 95.918.

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In the Ending of American session forex trading early few days ago , US dollar is still in the red zone with mixed movement, because the opponents gain strength of sterling and yen. The strike  back to US dollar is generally due to poor data reporting will be the performance by the New York Fed manufacturing the region. 

 

Fundamentally, the US dollar is still weak by poor reporting some disappointing economic data expectations for the Fed rate hike further this year. And tonight there is some economic data that provide the majority of negative sentiment on the dollar.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trading closed 11 pips after it opened lower at 95.73 and rolling positions at the position 95.62. The next forex trading dollar remains overshadowed by the fundamental pressure.

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USD index Dollar in Asian sesion traded weakly on Thursday after market players ell their dollar assets and selecting investments denominated in USD main rival. The market doubts the power of US dollar after FOMC minutes released last month, so that the exchange rate of the global major drop again enter a fifth consecutive day.

For today's trading movement of USD index is still bullish despite the difficult move important data on US session to the data in the Philly Fed manufacturing index seeks to provide positive sentiment. However, the data this evening unemployment claims may give a negative sentiment.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trading negative move after previously closed slightly lower at 94.71 and this morning's position opened at 94.70. The position of the dollar is now in the worst position for the last 5 months.

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After US dollar plunged to its lowest in seven weeks overnight trading, this morning managed to rebound from weakening during the week. This morning dollar managed to rise against its main rivals respond to the notice of the New York Fed chief also confirmed by the release of positive economic data such as data on unemployment claims and the Philly Fed is encouraging.

 

New York Fed President William Dudley said in September it is possible for the Fed to raise interest rates this year extended. This statement is trying to raise expectations of Fed rate hikes after the death of the minutes of the FOMC meeting last month.

 

In yesterday's trading, dollar had to give up against all its rivals after losing the exchange rate of euro after the release of the minutes of ECB meeting last month. Within minutes of ECB meeting still needs to mention that a very long time to digest economic data from the region after Brexit before deciding to liberalize its policies.

 

For today's trading Dollar movement will not be any fundamental data that provide additional energy that will move followed the sentiment rivals. And during these days rivals fundamental data such as euro, sterling except that which is expected to receive positive sentiment from Japan All Industries Activity data.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trade in a positive move after severe closed lower at 94.14 and this morning position is opened at 94.13. The dollar is now in position 94.27.

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Venturing forex trading this week on Asian session, USD once again dominate trading after last weekend's draw strength from expectations Fed will resume its interest rate after the last week's FOMC statement. Some sentiments are still coloring the market this morning with rivals to be difficult to move rebounding from weakness earlier trade except the yen.

For today's trading movement of USD will not be any fundamental data that provide additional power, as well as for his rivals no fundamental data that will be published today. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies moved positively after previous trading closed higher at 94.51 and this morning's position opened at 94.72.

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In the ending of forex trading early in the week a few days ago US dollar back in retreat after a strong rebound late last week. Dollar had strengthened since the Asian trading session and enter the US session stronger by the statement hawkish Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer. However trimmed back after the markets doubt the ability of the Fed to raise interest rates back this year.

Stanley Fischer stated that US economic growth will increase in the coming quarter and the Fed's inflation target to be reached but worried about the US economic outlook for the long term. Last week the dollar received a lot of hawkish statements from Fed officials that the currency raised high but the duration is not long.

For today's trading the dollar movement will be influenced by the fundamental data that is mixed with some economic indicators such as data flash manufacturing and new home sales. Home sales data is expected to show a lower data from the previous period. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trading negative move after earlier closed lower at 94.55 and this morning's position opened at 94.56. The position of the dollar is now at 94.48

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The movement of USD against its main rivals entered the third day of trading this week managed to rebound by market optimism will be a Fed rate hike in September is expected to be presented by Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole meeting in weekend. Optimism increased after new home sales data released overnight the United States showed a significant spike in the data.

 

New Home Sales Data reported sales data overnight showed increased the most in the last 9 years. This data is believed to be the market adds to a series of data that support the ability of the Federal Reserve raised interest rates back in. Sentiment encouraging US dollar is the reason for the market to do profit-taking against its main rivals.

 

For today's trading supported by the movement of the dollar in addition to the above sentiment will also be reinforced by weak data on rival supporters and positive expectations of the data US existing home sales in July were reported in the evening session. From today the European region sustains economic data rate of the region such as Q2-2016 Eurozone GDP data and the data also showed weakness BBA Mortgage aprovals.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies moved positively after previous trading closed lower at 94.52 and this morning's position opened at 94.51. The position of the dollar is now at 94.61.

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Ahead of Janet Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole Symposium event tomorrow market participants cautious once to collect a large dollar amounts, so that the movement of US dollar in the spot market consolidation against its main rivals. But the tendency of the market attitude prefer removing the dollar as hawkish comments Fed officials last week in contrast to the minutes of their meeting last month. And in the middle of forex trading the Asian session this morning the dollar back on profit taking after earlier trading slightly higher.

 

US dollar is clearly visible only strengthened against its rivals yesterday's trading higher, as against sterling. Previous trading only weakened against the dollar pound exchange rate because the fundamental strength of the GBP by market considerations will be the UK's economic conditions present post Brexit.

 

Dollar managed to previous trading strong against major rivals because few had positive expectations of the market would be meeting leaders of global central banks in Wyoming-USA for two days starting Thursday. For today's trading movements of the US dollar will be supported by positive sentiment from some economic data such as US durable goods orders data is however overshadowed by the negative data on jobless claims last week.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies moved positively after previous trading closed lower at 94.74 and this morning's position opened at 94.76. The position of the dollar is now at 94.74.

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The fate of the US dollar and next weekend will be determined after Janet Yellen's speech tonight while speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium which provides the signal whether the Fed's benchmark rate is still able to be raised or not at all this year. Collectors dollars still expect Janet Yellen give a strong signal even though many opinions which weakens the signal.

 

Reason various opinions which weakens the signal is still away to weigh the current US inflation rate to the inflation target set Fed, in addition to global economic conditions helped give consideration. Observed in the Asian session on Friday (26/8) US dollar weakened against all major rivals by pessimism hawkish signals from Janet Yellen later that night.

 

Fundamental data mover for the dollar throughout the day in addition to Janet Yellen's speech there was also prelim Q2 2016 GDP, trade balance, and the revised UoM consumer sentiment and the outlook for US inflation. These data are expected to provide negative sentiment for the US dollar. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trading weak after the move to open flat this morning at 94.70 and moving weak this morning at 94.64.

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The forex market last week was won by US dollar towards the end of trading after a week since the beginning of the pressure experienced by market pessimism would be a strong signal of Fed rate hikes. US Dollar surged higher after the Federal Reserve weekend with Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer optimistic Fed rate hikes continued to be carried out.

 

For the movement of the dollar this week will be influenced by a number of important fundamental data such as the US CB Consumer Confidence Data, Canadian GDP data, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment Change and Non Farm Data last Payrol for the period of August. This important data from many economists forecast will show negative data from the previous period.

 

In addition to a prime mover of fundamental data there are also some data that helps the movement of the dollar like US Core PCE, US Personal Spending, US Pending Home Sales, US Crude Inventories, US Unempolyment Claims and Unemployment Rate.

 

Last week in the forex market, the dollar rebound seen on a weekly basis which was lifted by trading the weekend when the Fed gives a strong signal for further Fed rate hikes this year. Weekly US dollar index was observed to rise to a level of 95 470.

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Ending the forex trading early in the week a few days ago (30/8) US dollar did not succeed dominate all world currencies, which is much weaker against major rivals such as the euro, yen, Australian dollar and Franc Swiss. Hawkish statement from Fed officials last weekend was unable to make further dollar rally, as well as positive economic data overnight.

 

Market participants reconsider Janet Yellen's comments last week in which the rate hike could happen next month or next month, and alarming NFP report this week may postpone it back.

 

The positive sentiment overnight came from the positive economic data released as the level of personal income and spending US citizens rose in line with economists forecast in July. The Commerce Department reported personal income levels rose 0.4 percent in July after rising 0.3 percent in June. Likewise, the level of personal spending rose 0.3 percent in July following jar a 0.5 percent increase in June.

 

For the movement of the dollar today can receive fresh air daily if the fundamental driving force rivals fit that predicted that showed negative data. Because the American session the existing fundamental data can give negative sentiment for the rate at the beginning of the Asian session this morning. Tonigh consumer sentiment data will release based on a CB Survey.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies trading after a strong move early trade on Asian session opened strong at 95.55 and the position this morning to move the position of 95.63. Previous trading the dollar fell slightly and almost flat.

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Ending the second day forex trading this week Wednesday morning (31/8) US index rebounded and successfully mastered all world currencies by market optimism will signal a rate hike at the Fed this year's Jackson Hole meeting last weekend. The forex market participants also believe the performance data on the US labor market tonight and also the weekend to support the signals.

Market optimism is getting stronger overnight when the Conference Board Inc. (CB) report on US consumer sentiment survey on the economy of the country is getting an upbeat assessment of over 100 points, namely at 101.1 index points. The strength of this data directly accelerates the movement of the US dollar is still moderate since the Asian session.

For the movement of the US index is expected today got a little pressure on the European session by the strong sentiment that supports several of its main rivals. But it would be strong again if the ADP data showed an increase above expectations.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies moving trading weak after the start of trading the Asian session opened flat at 96.03 and this morning's position moves is at 96.01.

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In the middle of forex trading the Asian session the first day of September (1/9), US dollar is still moving is limited and weakened. Observed in the spot market dollar weakened against all major rivals including the exchange of commodities despite oil prices being depressed.

The weakening of USD this morning due to caution the market awaits NFP data will be released tomorrow, where this data can amplify signals or Fed rate hikes will diminish the signal. If NFP data is not as expected, the Fed rate hike signals will disappear again, and vice versa.

For the movement of US dollar today is expected to receive a negative sentiment from US economic data to be released in the evening session as unemployment claims data and PMI manufacturing performance data by governments and private version. Similarly, from the fundamental side rival today is expected to be pressured by the strong fundamentals of rivals such as the euro and sterling.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies moving trading weak after the start of Asian session opened flat at 95.99 and this morning's position moves at 95.96. Previous trading the dollar weakened and fell 0.04 percent.

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In the middle of forex trading the Asian session the weekend (2/9), the US dollar is still strong against its main rivals by caution over the data market performance of the US labor market in August that will strengthen or weaken the Fed signals rate hikes this year. Observed in the spot market the dollar fell against several of its main rivals except the yen and gold prices.

 

Dollar hit by the earlier trade performance data for US manufacturing contraction in August or below the level of 50 points according to a government report or ISM. Meanwhile, a survey by Markit, PMI manufacturing data decreased slightly from the previous period and still in expansionary area (above 50 points)

 

For the movement of US dollar today is expected to receive negative sentiment in August NFP data is expected from many economists down from the previous month. But the unemployment rate for data and trade balance which expceted to provide positive data. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies moving trading weak after the start of trading the Asian session opened strong at 95.65 and the position this morning at 95.63.

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In the middle of forex trading Asian session earlier in the week (5/9), USD moves very we akagainst all major rivals even minor rate at such exchange rates in Asia. US dollar weakness triggered by bad US NFP data last weekend makes bleak Fed rate hike expectations back. The last weekend of August US NFP data reported data show that lower than expected also lower than the previous month period. 

Poor performance data for the US labor sector provides a disappointment to fans of the US dollar will certainly continue to soar if the Fed raised interest rates. For the movement of the US dollar today is expected to receive a negative sentiment from strong fundamentals main rivals while her off the US market so there is no fundamental data to support it.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies moving trading weak after the start of trading the Asian session opened weak at 95.85 and this morning, the price's position moves to around 95.66. The previous trading the dollar which actually rose 0.2 percent.

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Once smitten against many rivals early trading last week, US dollar tried to rebound entering the Asian trading session on Tuesday (6/9). This morning it seems that US dollar was observed to weaken against his opponent just like Great Britain Pound and the commodity exchange occurred while strengthening against Euro and Francc.

Her off the US market and Canada earlier in the week due to Labor Day holiday makes no fundamental data to support the US dollar rate. So the dollar is still moved by the sentiment that comes from the rival fundamentals. The pound rallied last until the end of trading on Monday a few hours ago (6/9) and the exchange of commodities also rallied by a surge in crude oil prices increased significantly.

For the movement of the US dollar today expected to receive negative sentiment from strong fundamentals main rivals in the Asian and European session, and the session will come up with the negative sentiment of the data by the ISM non-manufacturing.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies limited trade moved higher after the beginning of the Asian trading session opened higher at 95.77 and this morning's position moves to around 95.76 whichi compared to the previous trading, USD fell about 0.1 percent.

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US Dollar received a hard blow last weekend when August NFP data showed no recovery until the second day of this week (6/9), where the dollar index fell to its lowest severe in 9 trading days the daily weakening even worst in 27 days. The weakening of US Dollar against all major rivals after the government reported a worsened business performance of US services sector in August were lower than the previous month period in the indicator ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The data down to a score of 51.4 from 55.5 from July.

 

In addition to the ISM data, the Federal Reserve also reported on the US labor market from 19 existing indicators. And the Fed report, an assessment of all the indicators show a weak score once from the previous month period. Labor Market Conditions Index fell to -0.7 from 1.3. Both of these data adds to a series of data that undermine expectations for Fed rate hikes in FOMC meeting in September.

 

This condition makes the value of US dollar against all major rivals depressed, especially overnight trading the high lift all the major rivals to rise above 1 percent. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major world currencies, fell around 0.96 percent to 94.80 after earlier trading this commodity pair opened at around 95.76.

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Ending the third day forex trading this week a few hours ago (8/9) US dollar managed to rebound after the Fed's Beige Book report, but there is still a strong rival that remains is the Japanese yen. Only the yen is continuing rallynya in the third consecutive day and has the potential to further rally today's trading.

 

Of note Beige Book revealed that economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace. In addition it was reported also in labor market conditions remain tight in most districts, with moderate wage growth. According to the Beige Book, the presidential election makes some businesses more cautious.

 

For the movement of the US dollar today is expected to still be moving weak with negative sentiment is getting stronger on expectations the Fed has not been able to raise interest rates this month if the data weekly US unemployment claims data tonight give increased from the previous week.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies moved lower after trading early trading Asian session opened lower at 94.93 and is now moving position to around 94.85. Previous dollar experienced daily reinforcement of 0.2%.

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Expectations of Fed rate hikes in the near term bounce back after the release of US economic data overnight showed positive data, and provide a powerful force for driving the US dollar in forex trading Thursday (8/9). However, Asian markets reconsider these data, which are still not strong enough to lift above expectations.

 

Hence the US dollar fell back against its main rivals and make some of its main rivals back to the high position. This week's weekly dollar had fallen enough in the cut weekly gain in two consecutive weeks. For the movement of the US dollar today expected to remain weak due to the quiet moving economic data releases of the United States as a strong driving force.

 

The evening session only data release Wholesale Inventories m / m which is less strong influence of the world's major currencies. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies moved lower after trading early trading Asian session opened lower at around 95.01 and is now the rolling value of this index is around 94.88 and may fall a bit deeper. Previous dollar experienced daily reinforcement of 0.1%.

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Although last week for 3 consecutive days rally by expectations of Fed rate hikes in the near term bounce back, on a weekly basis are still not able to show a positive performance after 2 weeks before the rally. This was due to the beginning of US dollar experienced a hard blow by the agreement of the G20 meeting.

But this morning the spot market was observed in Asian session US dollar was little changed as profit-taking by lonely drive strong fundamentals to continue the effort last week's rally. Ending last week's trading the dollar received additional power from Fed officials were hawkish statement.

Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said the gradual tightening of monetary policy tends precisely to ensure the US economy remains on the right growth rate. Fed officials argue that low interest rate policy alarming. On the other hand one of the other Fed officials, Daniel Tarullo less sure about a rate hike in September, but the Fed would consider tightening policy before the end of the year.

For the movement of the US dollar today is expected to rally again after the European session opened respond to quiet the fundamental driving force rivals in the European region. At the evening session the positive power can be increased if other Fed governors speech Lael Brainard delivered hawkish comments.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies moved lower after opened lower at 95.26 on Asian/Tokyo session and is now moving position at around 95.25. Compared to the last week range then US dollar index closed up to 0.30 percent.

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US Dollar managed to enter the Asian session trading with the higher position but after the consolidation by the pull of sentiment. US dollars in the previous session observed rallied by retreat from 3 days since a dovish statement of one Governor of the Federal Reserve overnight.

Considering trading market safe havens such as the yen and gold, but in the market of Asia stock indexes show some steady strengthening and trigger the lifting of US dollar. Fed Governor Lael Brainard last evening, suggested US central bank to maintain a loose monetary policy to address the current economic conditions. This statement slapped all high-ranking officials Fed comment more on the contrary expect a rate hike is needed.

Observed in the spot market of the Asian session the dollar weakened along with its main rivals except Yen which is currently trading benefited from safe-haven rhythm. And to the movement of US dollar today expected to weaken by a strong fundamentals driving by the quiet daily fundamental factor.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies moved lower after trading early trading on Asian session which opened lower at 95.12 and is now moving to around 95.11. The US dollar closed the previous trading 0.20 per cent retreat.

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he US dollar sign on Asia session on Wednesday (14/9) is very confident to go faster than all its main rivals after earlier trading received a strong force for the rally. Power of dollar is getting stronger overnight by dovish statement which shows the impact of one governor of the Federal Reserve before fading.

 

Dollar strength yesterday was also obtained by weak fundamentals driving the currency rivals such as the euro and the pound, which received a negative sentiment of economic data both in the European region. Observed in the spot market only Asian session dollar weakened against the aussie  and Canadian dollar, by technical movements after the exchange rate has been very low and triggered bargain hunting.

 

For movements today the dollar got a positive sentiment from all rivals despite weakening fundamentals in the evening session got a little pressure on import price data expected contraction.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies traded stronger after the start of trading on Asian session where it opened higher at 95.52 and is now movin to around 95.61. The US dollar closed the previous trading rebounded 0.40 percent.

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US Dollar in Asian trade on Thursday (15/9) continue weakening by the prudence of market awaits monetary policy from several global central banks such as Fed and BOJ next week as well as BOE today. Observed in the spot market only, USD on Asian session rose against euro, aussie, and canadian dollar.

The US dollar weakened by fading expectations of Fed rate hikes this year at next week's FOMC meeting. The expectation collapsed byt the respond to some bad or not satisfying economic data which released last night and also today which driving a wedge.

For today's trading alone, US dollar will receive negative sentiment of some economic data such as PPI , the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales m / m, Unemployment Claims, Current Account and Industrial Production m / m.

The dollar index, which measures the strength US dollar against six major currencies moving trading weak after the start of trading on Asia session opened higher at 95.32 and is now moving position at 95.30. US dollar closed the previous trading down around 0.2 percent.

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