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NZD/USD: kiwi caught the crab
3/17/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, after the implementation of the 88.6% target in the "Bat" pattern, the "bulls" are trying to take the lead. Their goal is to return quotes to the boundaries of the upward long-term channel and restore the uptrend. It is too early to talk about this, however. But the development of correction towards the current downward trend is not ruled out.

NZD_Daily.png

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the inverted "Crab" pattern is relevant. Its 161.8% target is located near the 0.714 mark. For its implementation, the "bulls" need to attack the resistances at 0.704 and 0.707 levels.

NZD_60.png

Recommendation:  BUY 0,704 SL 0,6985 TP 0,714.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12896

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Key option levels for Friday, March 17th
3/17/2017

EUR/USD

EURUSD(146).png

Main trend    Short-term period    Medium-term period
Bearish    Neutral
Changes in the open interest     + 70 513 ?     - 4 036 ?
Closest resistance levels    1.0790; 1.0812; 1.0840; 1.0865
Closest support levels    1.0776; 1.0753; 1.0712; 1.0672
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal)    Short EUR/USD below 1.0776, with target points at 1.0753 and 1.0712
Alternative scenario    Moving above 1.0790 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0812 and 1.0840
 
GBP/USD

GBPUSD(115).png

Main trend    Short-term period    Medium-term period
Bullish    Bearish
Changes in the open interest     + 149 ?     - 78 ?
Closest resistance levels    1.2361; 1.2387; 1.2407
Closest support levels    1.2319; 1.2296; 1.2269; 1.2238
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario    Long GBP/USD above 1.2361 (or from 1.2319), with target points at 1.2387 and 1.2407
Alternative scenario    Moving below 1.2319 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2296 and 1.2269
 
USD/CAD

USDCAD(126).png

Main trend    Short-term period    Medium-term period
Bearish    Bullish
Changes in the open interest    - 129 ?     + 113 ?
Closest resistance levels    1.3346; 1.3371; 1.3412; 1.3468
Closest support levels    1.3312; 1.3294; 1.3273; 1.3240
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario    Short USD/CAD below 1.3312, with the target points at 1.3294 and 1.3273
Alternative scenario    Moving above 1.3346 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3371 and 1.3412

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12898

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EUR/USD: technical analysis
3/17/2017

H4

The price faced a resistance at 1.0774, so the pair is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.0797 – 1.0811. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0754 – 1.0732.

eur1(1).png

H1

We’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, so bulls are likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.0797 – 1.0811 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to test the closest support at 1.0754 – 1.0732.

eur2.png

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12899

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GBP/USD: technical analysis
3/17/2017

GBP, H4

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2382, so the price reached a support at 1.2347 afterwards. Also, there’s a developing “Pennant”, so the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2411 in the short term. Nevertheless, if a pullback from this level be on the table, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as a possible bearish target.

gbp1.png

GBP, H1

The price is consolidating along a support at 1.2347. Considering the last “Pennant” pattern, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2382 – 1.2411. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to approach a support at 1.2347 – 1.2315.

gbp2.png

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12900

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NZD/USD: outlook for March 20-24
3/17/2017

The kiwi dollar jumped to 0.7050 on Wednesday after Fed’s officials refused to accelerate the current pace of the monetary tightening. Towards the end of the past week, there was a pullback towards 0.6970. New Zealand’s annual growth rate slowed further despite surging immigration, low borrowing costs and evident activity in the housing sector. This casts doubt on the latest central bank’s projection that growth would accelerate to more than 4% by the second half of 2017.

The main focus of the next week will be on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Most analysts expect the central bank to stay on hold adopting a wait-and-see approach. Ahead of the meeting, we will get an update of global dairy prices. Then we will be waiting for Thursday’s Fed Chair Yellen speech followed by the comments on the US economic outlook from other FOMC members.

The technical outlook for the pair is neutral. NZD/USD might spend a few days in the consolidation phase before facing rather sturdy resistances at 0.7050 (38.2% Fibo retracement level from last year low), 0.7120 and 0.7140. A pullback below 0.6940 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased and the way towards the next support at 0.6915 (50% Fibo retracement level) is open.

NZDUSDDaily(9).png

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GBP/USD: outlook for March 20-24
3/17/2017

GBP/USD surged to 1.2390. The Bank of England left rates on hold, but its member Kristin Forbes voted for a hike thereby showing that policymakers becoming more and more concerned with a rise in inflation. Her vote surprised the market and made the pound rise. Post-FOMC weakness of the US dollar was another tailwind for the British pound. On the political front, Theresa May has finally received a formal permission to trigger Article 50 by the end of March. Nicola Sturgeon’s bid to hold another referendum on the Scottish independence of the country was rejected by the UK Prime Minister who tries to avoid spreading the country’s resources between defending the British integrity and securing advantageous separation with the EU. This news offered additional support to the pound.

Next week keep an eye on the UK CPI figures and retail sales coming on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. From the US, we will be waiting for the comments on the US economic outlook from numerous FOMC members, Fed Chair Yellen’s speech scheduled for Thursday accompanied by the UK retail sales and the US unemployment claims, as well as the US core durable goods orders on Friday.

Technically, short-term indicators remain in neutral-bearish territory and might prompt a retracement towards immediate supports at 1.2350, 1.2290 (100-H4 MA) and 1.2210 (near 50-H4 MA). A break above resistance at 1.2430 (top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud, downtrend line) suggests a further uplift towards the resistances at 1.2480, 1.2500 and 1.2550.

GBPUSDDaily(37).png

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12902

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EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as a support
3/17/2017

1703eurusdh4.png

We’ve got a bearish “Tower” on the nearest resistance area. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

1603eurusdh1-1.png

There’s an “Engulfing”, which has been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to achieve the closest support and the 55 Moving Average, which both could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12903

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USD/JPY: bears going to deliver new local low
3/17/2017

1703usdjpyH4.png

here’s a bullish “Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed. Also, the last candles are bearish, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest “Window”. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction.

1703usdjpyH1.png

The price is consolidating, so the upper “Window” is acting as a resistance. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a new local low during the day.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12904

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USD/CAD: outlook for March 20-24
3/17/2017

USD/CAD slumped to 1.3280 after the FOMC meeting. The decline was short-lived, however. Towards the end of the week, the greenback revived its bullish momentum and rose to 1.3330.

Next week we will be waiting for a number of economic releases: retail sales and inflation figures from Canada, existing home sales and current account data from the US.  Canadian annual budget release might become an additional market trigger. Another focus will be on the Fed Chair Janet Yellen and FOMC officials’ speeches scheduled for Thursday and Friday respectively.  

At the present moment, USD/CAD is trading tightly near the 100-day MA (around 1.3300 level) consolidating after Wednesday’s impressive decline. A further support can be found at 1.3280 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud). If it is broken the quote will slide further towards 1.3215 (200-H4 MA), or 1.3115. A break of resistances at 1.3385/1.3420 will be a signal of the restoration of the uptrend.

USDCADDaily(11).png

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12905

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EUR/USD: wave (i) started
3/17/2017

Image20170317172123001.png

It’s likely that wave [ii] ended on the four-hours chart. Therefore, if a pullback from 8/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have bearish wave (i). The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.

Image20170317172123002.png

There’s a possible diagonal triangle in wave © of [ii]. So, bears are likely going to deliver wave i. If a pullback from 6/8 MM Level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a local upward correction.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12907

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EUR/GBP reversed from resistance zone
3/17/2017

EUR/GBP reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 0.8630
EUR/GBP continues to fall inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.8800 (previous buy target), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp extended downward impulse from last October.  The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover.

EUR/GBP is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 0.8630 (former strong resistance level which reversed the previous minor correction 2 in February).

EURGBP_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-17_1703_

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12908

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Key option levels for Monday, March 20th
3/19/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) *  UPDATED

EUR/USD

EURUSD(147).png

Main trend    Short-term period    Medium-term period
Bearish    Neutral
Changes in the open interest     + 68 625 ?     + 364 591 ?
Closest resistance levels    1.0764; 1.0790; 1.0826; 1.0867
Closest support levels    1.0740; 1.0698; 1.0659; 1.0635
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario    Short EUR/USD below 1.0740 (or from 1.0764), with target points at 1.0698 and 1.0659
Alternative scenario    Moving above 1.0764 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0790 and 1.0826

GBP/USD

GBPUSD(116).png

Main trend    Short-term period    Medium-term period
Bearish    Bearish
Changes in the open interest     - 21 ?     + 192 ?
Closest resistance levels    1.2424; 1.2453; 1.2476; 1.2512
Closest support levels    1.2392; 1.2362; 1.2340; 1.2314
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario    Short GBP/USD below 1.2392 (or from 1.2424), with target points at 1.2362 and 1.2340
Alternative scenario    Moving above 1.2424 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2453 and 1.2476
 

USD/CAD

USDCAD(127).png

Main trend    Short-term period    Medium-term period
Neutral    Bullish
Changes in the open interest    + 94 ?     + 156 ?
Closest resistance levels    1.3353; 1.3378; 1.3417; 1.3472
Closest support levels    1.3321; 1.3298; 1.3275; 1.3240
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario    Long USD/CAD above 1.3353, with the target points at 1.3378 and 1.3417
Alternative scenario    Moving below 1.3321 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3298 and 1.3275

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12912

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EUR/JPY: bulls are going to attack
3/21/2017

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, there is a transformation of the inverted "Shark" pattern into 5-0. The return of quotes to the level of 121.8 (23.6% of the CD wave) will increase the risks of recovery of the uptrend. In contrast, a successful test of the support at 120.65 can lead to the development of correction towards 120.5 and 119.95 levels.

Screenshot_2017_03_21_07_36_21.png

On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, 121.4 is the immediate resistance level. Its breakout will activate the inverted "Shark" pattern with the target of 122.45. A more secure entry point to BUY is the area of the upper boundary of the downward trading channel.

Screenshot_2017_03_21_07_36_39.png

Recommendation: BUY 122,8 SL 122,25 TP 123,8.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12932

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EUR/USD: bulls took a break

3/21/2017

 

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 1.0705-1.0785. A breakout of its upper border will increase the risks of continuation of the rally towards 1.086, and then, towards 1.104 (target 161,8% in the AB = CD pattern ). In contrast, a successful test of the support at 1.0705 can lead to the development of the correction towards 1.0635 and 1.06 levels.

 

Screenshot_2017_03_21_07_36_58.png

 

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the Dragon pattern was successfully implemented. At the present moment, there is a formation of the triangle. A successful test of its upper border and resistance at 1.0775 will open the way for the bulls to the north. "Bears" expect a drop of the quotes below the support at 1.072.

 

Screenshot_2017_03_21_07_37_15.png

 

Recommendations:

 

BUY 1,0775 SL 1,072 TP1 1,086 TP2 1,104,

 

SELL 1,0705 SL 1,076 TP 1,06. 

 

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EUR/USD: euro still under resistance

3/21/2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.0740, 1.0700; resistance – 1.0800/20.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.0800; SL — 1.0820; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0700.

 

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under a daily resistance; the market is overbought.

 

01-eurusdh4(105).png

 

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EUR/USD: wave 2 is going to end

3/23/2017

 

Image20170322201142001.png

 

Wave 2 is taking form of a double zigzag. The main intraday target for wave [y] is +2/8 MM Level. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward impulse wave.

 

Image20170322201142002.png

 

There’s a developing bullish impulse in wave © of [y] on the one-hour chart. In this case, wave v of © is likely going to be continued. So, bulls will probably try to test +2/8 MM Level soon.

 

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GBP/USD: bulls must show their strength

3/23/2017

 

On the GBP/USD daily chart, prices are trying to consolidate above the important level of 1.2485. If they succeed, the risks of the continuation of the rally towards 1.26 and 1.265 levels will increase. In contrast, a rollback followed by the return of the quotes to the borders of the downward trading channel will tell us about the realization of the 5-0 pattern.

 

Screenshot_2017_03_23_07_51_17.png

 

On the GBP/USD daily chart, buyers are preparing for the test of the March high. Activation of the AB = CD pattern will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards 1.26. But if the buyers fail to gain a foothold above 1.25, it will lead to the implementation of the expanding wedge pattern.

 

Screenshot_2017_03_23_07_51_35.png

 

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AUD/USD: Aussie escaped the Shark

3/23/2017

 

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bears for the second time try to push the quotes out of the descending trading channel. If they succeed the target 113% in the "Shark" inverted pattern will unlikely be implemented. Aussie might develop the correction towards 0.7605 and lower.

 

Screenshot_2017_03_23_07_51_54.png

 

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, senior and junior Shark patterns are still relevant. There might be a rebound from the present levels, or from the level of 0.7560. Many things depend on the test of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel. A breakout of the resistance at 0.7683 will likely return the "bulls" to life.

 

Screenshot_2017_03_23_07_52_15.png

 

Recommendation: BUY 0,7685 SL 0,763 TP 0,777. 

 

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Morning brief for March 23

3/23/2017

 

donald-trump-obamacare-repeal-replace-di

 

Today the US Congress will be voting on a key healthcare reform bill which is seen by my market experts as a litmus test for the relationship between the White House and Congress. If the bill doesn’t pass, it could delay or reduce the scope for other policies, like tax cuts and massive infrastructure spending. So, now Donald Trump is “working hard for the money” (let me borrow this line from Donna Summer’s song, it fits best for the description of Trump’s efforts) to them spend them not on the Medicare/Medicate, but on the further development of the US economy.  

 

EUR/USD is trading sideways within the range of 1.0775/1.0825. The result of the latest French election poll with Macron beating anti-EU Le Pen offer a little boost to the euro – it edged a few ticks higher towards 1.0790. Short-term upward momentum is slowing down, so the quotes might slide towards the nearest supports at 1.0770, 0.0745 levels. If Trump fails to push through his healthcare bill, the euro might jump above the recent high at 1.0825.

 

Data wise, it is going to be another quiet session with little data in the economic calendar. You would probably argue here saying: “look, how about Janet Yellen speech to be delivered at 2:45 pm MT time?” Well, I wouldn’t be so excited about it, as Fed Chair will address to the Fed’s Community Development Research Conference. There is no connection between kids and Fed’s monetary policy projections (the conference will be aimed at the economic future of children).

 

USD/JPY dropped to 110.70 overnight. In the early hours of the Asian session, prices moved higher as political scandal dented investor sentiment. It concerns the alleged relationship of prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife with a Japanese nationalist education group that bought stated-owned land at undervalued prices to build an elementary school. The impact on the yen is still from this scandal is not clear.

 

GBP/USD rose to 1.2475 in the course of the Asian session having remained unaffected by the news flow from London. There was an attack close to Britain’s Parliament which left 5 people dead and 40 injured. The attacker is believed to have been inspired by Islamist-related terrorism. In terms of economic data, you should focus your attention on the UK retail sales coming at 11:30 am MT time.

 

NZD/USD is net changed on the session. On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its rate unchanged as it was projected by the markets. A neutral policy bias has been maintained. The technical outlook for the pair is neutral. It is expected to trade sideways between 0.6950-0.7090 for some more days.

 

Aussie dipped to 0.7660 in the Asian session, but the consolidation phase is still in place. Only a sustained drop below 0.7600 will signal us about the restoration of the downtrend. There was no data flow from the region. The economy calendar is almost empty.

 

Oil prices have finally rebounded to $51.01 after touching their lowest level ($49.70) since November when OPEC and non-OPEC members fabricated their output cut deal. A sharp downfall was caused by the official US data that showed US inventories grew by far more than it had been forecasted.

 

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EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" pushing the price higher

3/23/2017

 

23-3-2017-EUR-H4.png

 

The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0828. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.0850 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction towards a support at 1.0797 – 1.0774.

 

23-3-2017-EUR-H1.png

 

We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place between the 34 Moving Average and the nearest resistance at 1.0828. Also, we’ve got a “Thorn” and “V-Bottom” patterns, so bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.0850 during the day. Considering a pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.0774 as a possible bearish target.

 

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GBP/USD: local bullish "Flag"

3/23/2017

 

23-3-2017-GBP-H4.png

 

There’s a flat, which is taking place near the broken downtrend. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2522 – 1.2547 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area be on the table, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.2469 – 1.2438.

 

23-3-2017-GBP-H1.png

 

We’ve got a “Flag”, so the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest resistance at 1.2522 during the day. If bulls be stopped by this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of a support at 1.2469 – 1.2438.

 

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Key option levels for Thursday, March 23rd

3/23/2017

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(150).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 29 196 ? + 5 744 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.0820; 1.0844; 1.0865; 1.0901

Closest support levels 1.0799; 1.0777; 1.0729; 1.0685

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0799 (or from 1.0820), with target points at 1.0777 and 1.0729

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0820 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0844 and 1.0865

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(130).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 190 ? + 62 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3328; 1.3353; 1.3378; 1.3416

Closest support levels 1.3303; 1.3280; 1.3245; 1.3194

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3328, with the target points at 1.3353 and 1.3378

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3303 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3280 and 1.3245

 

AUD/USD

 

AUDUSD(6).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 0 + 337 ?

Closest resistance levels 0.7668; 0.7687; 0.7699; 0.7718

Closest support levels 0.7657; 0.7639; 0.7622; 0.7597

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7657, with the target points at 0.7639 and 0.7622

Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7668 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7687 and  0.7699

 

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S&P 500 near-term outlook

3/23/2017

 

Yesterday the benchmark US S&P 500 stock index hit its lowest level (2341.65) in five weeks. Guess, what was the main fundamental factor that caused this downfall? Your first answer will probably be – Mr. Trump said/did something. And you will be right. American shares slumped mostly on the concerns that Trump might not be able to push head his pro-growth policies. The lawmakers might show their unwillingness to accept his policy initiatives. The first test will be run on Trump’s plan to dismantle Obamacare. Healthcare reform act is running into troubles. It takes too much time to push it through. It’s a sort of a signal for investors that Trump’s tax reform policies may face setbacks.

 

spg.png

 

Another fundamental reason for this drop is dipping oil prices. There is a positive correlation between crude oil prices and some equities. WTI crude oil futures has fallen nearly 12-13% in March bringing them at around $48 level. Brent oil futures touched their lowest levels since November on the investor’s concerns over non-compliance of several OPEC, non-OPEC countries with their obligations under November output cut deal, increasing US oil stockpiles and boosting US oil industry.

 

In the near-term, stocks have all chance for recovery from their recent downfall thanks to lower yields in benchmark government bonds and 10-year Treasury notes (the yields were falling for 4 consecutive days to 2.37% from 2.62%). The latter ones will be less attractive for investors seeking higher returns.  

 

10-year.png

 

What will happen with S&P 500 in the near-term/short-term future?

 

Let us refer to the technical chart to answer this question. The immediate support can be found at 2,328 (50-day MA). On the upside, there are several resistances located at 2,360/2,370 levels. In the short term, the equity prices will likely be consolidating within the range of 2,330-2,380 (yesterday’s high). A break of the higher level of the range will open the way towards resistance at 2,400 (March high).  

 

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GBP/AUD rising inside primary impulse wave ③

3/23/2017

 

GBP/AUD rising inside primary impulse wave ③

Next buy target - 1.6480

GBP/AUD continues to rise inside the primary upward impulse wave ③, which started earlier from the support zone surrounding the powerful support level 1.5900, which reversed the price multiple times in October and November, as can be seen from the daily GBP/AUD chart below. The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

 

GBP/AUD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.6480 (top of the previous minor correction (B) from February)

 

GBPAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-23_1641_

 

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EUR/USD: "Inverted Hammer" pushing the market higher

3/23/2017

 

2303eurusdh4.png

 

We’ve got a bullish “Engulfing” on the nearest support area. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to continue moving up in the short term.

 

2303eurusdh1.png

 

The 55 Moving Average acted as a support, so we’ve got an “Inverted Hammer” on this line. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance level.

 

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