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EUR/NZD reached buy target 1.5200
3/9/2017

EUR/NZD reached buy target 1.5200
Next buy target - 1.5450
EUR/NZD continues to rise following the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 1.5200 (top of the previous corrective waves a and (ii)), which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.5200 accelerated the c-wave of the active minor ABC correction 2 from the start of February – which then broke the next resistance level 1.5260.

EUR/NZD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.5450 (which stopped the previous upward correction (ii) from last October).

EURNZD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-09_1632_

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EUR/AUD broke round resistance level 1.4000
3/9/2017

EUR/AUD broke round resistance level 1.4000
Next buy target – 1.4280
EUR/AUD recently broke above the round resistance level 1.4000 (which also earlier reversed the price at the start of this month, as you can see from the daily EUR/AUD chart below). The breakout of the resistance level 1.4000 accelerated the c-wave of the minor ABC correction 2 from the end of February.

EUR/AUD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next strong resistance level 1.4280 (which stopped the previous corrective waves A and (2) in January, as can be seen below).

EURAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-09_1634_

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GBP/USD: pound took a rest
3/10/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern has been realized. If prices reach the convergence zone, there can be a pullback towards 38.2% and 50% levels of the CB wave (1.2355 and 1.243 respectively). A breakout of the support at 1.2135 can lead to the implementation of the 88.6% target in the "Bat" pattern (1.206).

Screenshot_2017_03_10_08_01_32.png

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the prices are trading in the range of 1.214-1.2195 levels. There is also a formation of the expanding wedge pattern. A breakout of the upper limit of the trading range can lead to the development of correction. In contrast, a successful test of the support can lead to the continuation of the downward movement.

Screenshot_2017_03_10_08_01_49.png

Recommendations:

BUY 1,2195 SL 1,214 TP 1,2355,

SELL 1,214 SL 1,2195 TP 1,206.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12808

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USD/CAD: bulls caught the Crab
3/10/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, an intermediate 127.2% target in the Crab reversal pattern has been fulfilled. The "bulls" should break the March high and support at 1.3572 to continue their rally. If they fail to do, it will lead to the development of the correction.

Screenshot_2017_03_10_08_11_04.png

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, a breakout of the support at 1.3485 can lead to the rollback towards 1.3425. At the same time, there is still an upward trend, so you can use corrective movements for the opening of long positions.

Screenshot_2017_03_10_08_11_22.png

Recommendation: BUY 1,3425 SL 1,3380 TP 1,3572.  

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12809

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AUD/USD: expected correction
3/10/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7490; resistance – 0.7560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7520; SL — 0.7500; TP1 — 0.7560; TP2 — 0.7590.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the strong support of daily a daily Cloud.

03-audusdh4(86).png

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12810

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USD/JPY: Dollar going to new highs
3/10/2017
Technical levels: support – 114.90; resistance – 116.30.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 114.90; SL — 114.70; TP1 — 116.00; TP2 — 116.30.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are formed the new local highs.

04-usdjpyh4(83).png

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12811

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EUR/USD: price going to consolidate
3/10/2017

10-3-2017-EUR-H4.png

The price faced a support at 1.0520, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern. Bulls reached a resistance at 1.0619 afterwards, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bears are likely going to test an area between the 34 Moving Average and the nearest support at 1.0552. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.0629 – 1.0640.

10-3-2017-EUR-H1.png

Bulls found a resistance at 1.0621, so there’s a “Thorn” pattern, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.0578 – 1.0569. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0621 – 1.0639.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12812

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GBP/USD: bears pushing the price lower
3/10/2017

10-3-2017-GBP-H4.png

The price is consolidating in a range of a support area between the levels 1.2179 – 1.2048. So, the pair is likely going to test a support at 1.2120 in the short term. If a pullback from this level be on the table, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.2198 – 1.2231.

10-3-2017-GBP-H1.png

The 34 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2138 – 1.2120 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards the 55 Moving Average afterwards.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12813

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Morning brief for March 10
3/10/2017

Lull before the NFP data… The Asian session was light for news and data flow. We got upbeat Australian housing data and a bit disappointing Japan’s MoF Business outlook showing a slide in business sentiment and thereby highlighting the need for BoJ’s policy accommodation. USD/JPY spiked to 115.30. The current rebound may extend higher towards 115.60/116.00 if US labor market report is strong.

Aussie and kiwi both edged up against the US in the Asian session. They might erase these gains in the course of European and American sessions as there is a great probability that NFP will be in line with market expectation. Commodities remain under pressure this week with iron ore, copper, gold and oil prices sliding down. This has been the key driver of AUD underperformance. Technically, a move above 0.7560 level (50-day MA) could lead to a further upsurge. If prices fail to consolidate at present levels and return to 0.7510 area, there could be a drop towards the support at 0.7430.

EUR/USD extended its overnight gains haven risen to 1.0595. This happened thanks to optimistic Draghi (ECB President) who suggested that the ECB door could be opening to the possibility of a change in policy stance in the nearest future. He also noted that there is no urgency in taking additional easing measures as the threats to the recovery of the Eurozone economies have become less severe.  For the present moment, the pair moved into a consolidation phase. Here it should be noted, though, that the euro will have to work up a sweat to move higher as investors would rather buy USD ahead of the Fed’s March meeting. Don’t miss Germany’s current account data that should be released before the NFP data.

USD/CAD peaked above 1.3530 overnight as Brent oil futures slid to their two-month low ($51.50). In the Asian session, Loonie regained its strength; USD/CAD fell to 1.3500.

GBP/USD dropped to 1.2160. Prime Minister Theresa May still has to invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty. The bill allowing her to do so has yet to pass through Parliament, bypassing the opposition in the upper house. Keep an eye on the UK industrial, manufacturing and construction output data coming at 11:30 am MT time. All these readings are expected to fall short of market’s expectations. If this forecast is realized, GBP may swoop towards 1.2100.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12814

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NFP forecasts from banks
3/10/2017

The US Labor department releases its February jobs report at 3:30 pm MT time. The market’s majority expects the following figures: NFP – 200K, unemployment rate – 4.7%.

Without further ado, there are some forecasts from banks and some comments from the WSJ analysts.

nonfarm.png

Bank’s forecasts

Perks from the Wall Street Journal analytical team

Average hourly earnings – a 0.3% monthly gain is expected

It was a raw spot in the January job report. This month many economists expect a modest increase in data. An uptick in the hourly earnings figures would certainly add to the Fed’s confidence that US inflation rate is headed higher.

Non-farm payrolls

In January, the pace of job creation has increased significantly (the last month headline – 227K). Market forecasters expect February’s reading to be in line with the recent trend, though there are some signs that hiring could decrease. It might happen because of the unusual winter weather in the US that could reduce hiring in such weather-vulnerable sectors as construction. Another factor that could potentially trim today’s figures – Donald Trump’s January order aiming at the reduction of hiring pace. The order came too late in the month, so it couldn’t affect last month payrolls data, but it might be reflected in today’s job report.

Unemployment

The previous month update was 4.8%. unemployment rates were stable despite the continued increase in the number of jobs created. It’s mainly because the workforce-participation rate has stabilized after a long decline.

Our chip in

After ultra-strong ADP report, the market is heavily positioned for a March hike. A headline in line with expectations will be met with a quite muted reaction. A weaker than expected print will probably result in a market’s backlash and a surge in volatility.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12817

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EUR/USD: bulls going to test "Window" once again
3/10/2017

1003eurusdH4.png

The last “Engulfing” and “Three Methods” patterns pushed the market higher. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 144 Moving Average during the day. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local downward correction.

1003eurusdH1.png

There’s a bearish “High Wave”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, bears are likely going to test the nearest Moving Averages. However, if we see a pullback from these lines, bulls will probably try to test the upper “Window”.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12818

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USD/JPY: broken "Window"
3/10/2017

1003usdjpyH4.png

Bulls went through the “Window”, so the price is rising. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to test this “Window” again. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.

1003usdjpyH1.png

We’ve got a bearish “Doji” at the last high, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed enough. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to decline towards the nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for a new bullish price movement.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12819

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USD/JPY reached buy target 115.00
3/10/2017

    USD/JPY reached buy target 115.00
    Next buy target – 117.00

USD/JPY recently broke above the resistance level 115.00 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 115.00 accelerated active minor impulse wave (iii) from the end of February. The price earlier broke above the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.

USD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 117.00 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave (iii)).

USDJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-10_1640_

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12820

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CHF/JPY broke resistance level 113.70
3/10/2017

    CHF/JPY broke resistance level 113.70
    Next buy target - 115.40

CHF/JPY continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 113.70 (which reversed the previous intermediate ABC correction (B) in February, as can be seen below). The breakout of the resistance level 113.70 follows the earlier breakout of the daily Falling Wedge chart pattern from January. The breakout of this Falling Wedge and of the resistance level 113.70 accelerated the active primary impulse wave ③.

CHF/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next strong resistance level 115.40 (which stopped the previous long-term upward impulse ① in December).

CHFJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-10_1638_

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12821

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Key option levels for Monday, March 13th
3/11/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) *     UPDATED

EUR/USD

EURUSD(141).png

Main trend     Short-term period     Medium-term period
Bearish     Neutral
Changes in the open interest     + 89 456 ?     + 44 668 ?
Closest resistance levels     1.0691; 1.0715; 1.0741; 1.0770
Closest support levels     1.0651; 1.0615; 1.0593; 1.0569
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal)     Short EUR/USD below 1.0651, with target points at 1.0615 and 1.0593
Alternative scenario     Moving above 1.0691 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0715 and 1.0741

 

GBP/USD

GBPUSD(111).png

Main trend     Short-term period     Medium-term period
Bearish     Bearish
Changes in the open interest     + 631 ?     - 84 ?
Closest resistance levels     1.2206; 1.2275; 1.2295; 1.2331
Closest support levels     1.2139; 1.2100; 1.2075; 1.2047
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario     Short GBP/USD below 1.2139, with target points at 1.2100 and 1.2075
Alternative scenario     Moving above 1.2206 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2275 and 1.2295

 

USD/CAD

USDCAD(122).png

Main trend     Short-term period     Medium-term period
Bearish     Bullish
Changes in the open interest     + 152 ?     - 20 ?
Closest resistance levels     1.3479; 1.3503; 1.3537; 1.3589
Closest support levels     1.3443; 1.3423; 1.3374; 1.3335
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario     Short USD/CAD below 1.3443, with the target points at 1.3423 and 1.3374
Alternative scenario     Moving above 1.3479 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3503 and 1.3537

 

AUD/USD

AUDUSD(5).png

Main trend     Short-term period     Medium-term period
Bearish     Bearish
Changes in the open interest     + 199 ?     + 220 ?
Closest resistance levels     0.7551; 0.7575; 0.7593; 0.7616
Closest support levels     0.7524; 0.7499; 0.7462; 0.7435
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario     Short AUD/USD below 0.7524, with the target points at 0.7499 and 0.7462
Alternative scenario     Moving above 0.7551 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7575 and 0.7593

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12822

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USD/JPY: bulls are doubting in their strength
3/13/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, within the inverted "Head and shoulders" and "Bat" patterns, a pin bar was formed. It is a signal of the bulls' weakness. If the "bears" manage to keep quotes below the 114.65 level, the prices may fall towards the upper boundary of the downward trading channel (112.7).

Screenshot_2017_03_13_07_51_07.png

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the breakout of the support at 114.65 will push the quotes lower towards 114 and 113.8. The nearest resistance is located near the 115.15 mark.

Screenshot_2017_03_13_07_51_22.png

Recommendations:

SELL 114,65 SL 115,2 TP1 113,8 TP2 112,7,

BUY 115,15 SL 114,6 TP 116,8.  

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12824

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NZD/USD: kiwi caught a Bat
3/13/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, target 88.6% in the "Bat" pattern has been implemented. At the present time, this pattern can be transformed into 5-0. This implies a 50% correction in the direction of 0.7070 and restoration of the downtrend.

Screenshot_2017_03_13_07_51_34.png

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, there is consolidation after the breakout of the downtrend. There can be an accumulation of long positions or closing of short positions by the major market participants. To develop a corrective movement, the "bulls" will need to test the resistance at 0.6955.

Screenshot_2017_03_13_07_51_48.png

Recommendation: BUY 0,6955 SL 0,69 TP 0,707.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12825

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GBP/USD: pound entered into channel Tenkan-Kijun
3/13/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2160; resistance – 1.2200/15 .

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2200; SL — 1.2220; TP1 — 1.2100; TP2 — 1.2060.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the channel Tenkan-Kijun.

02-gbpusdh4(79).png

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12826

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AUD/USD: correction may continue to Cloud
3/13/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7540, 0.7490; resistance – 0.7580, 0.7610.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7590; SL — 0.7610; TP1 — 0.7540; TP2 — 0.7480.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but rising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are breakout the Kijun-sen.

03-audusdh4(87).png

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12827

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Morning brief for March 13
3/13/2017

The US dollar weakened against its major peers at the beginning of this eventful week with BoE, BoJ, Fed’s monetary policy settings, G20 meeting, a potentially divisive election in the Netherlands.

EUR/USD is trading above 1.0700. The European currency hit the 1.0640 – 1.0690 levels after the ECB officials were said to have considered their ability to hike before the expiration of QE program. The pair may continue its rally towards 1.0750/1.0800. A further extension will be challenged by the political events and broad strengthening of USD. Worries about EU future remain in place as we approach Wednesday’s parliamentary election in the Netherlands with odds that far-right party manages to win a substantial share of votes. Today keep in focus the ECB President Draghi’s speech. He will deliver an opening address at an entrepreneurship conference in Frankfurt; the ECB monetary policy decision might be discussed.

Aussie led gains against its American counterpart haven risen to 0.7560. The off for further gains are still unclear. We would expect AUD consolidating in the range of 0.7490/0.7620 until G20 meeting, the first meeting with participation of the Trump’s administration representative. Protectionist trade policies might be on the agenda. The country leaders may also voice their intentions to reduce trade imbalances.

Kiwi showed some strength in the Asian session haven risen to 0.6940. We don’t expect a further extension from NZD/USD currency pair. NZ dollar will likely be driven by its US counterpart in the course of the week. In the meanwhile, the pair will likely be trading sideways within 0.6880/0.6980 levels.

USD/JPY slipped to 114.70 on the session. Earlier this morning we had Japan’s PPI edging higher and disappointing core machine orders release. Today’s economic calendar for the pair is fairly light. So, the trading will be rather subdued without massive peaks and troughs.

GBP/USD ticked up to 1.2180. The main focus of this week will the BoE meeting scheduled for March 16. Most market analysts expect BoE not changing its current monetary policy stance. Today, the house of Commons is set to debate and vote over whether to accept the amendments introduced by the upper chamber to the draft law granting UK PM Theresa May the power to trigger Brexit. In the case of the positive vote, Ms.May will be able to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty as soon as Tuesday which allows her to start talks with the EU on April 6.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12828

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EUR/USD: bulls going even higher
3/13/2017

13-3-2017-EUR-H4.jpg

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.0713, but the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the next resistance at 1.0732 – 1.0754. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward correction, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.0678 – 1.0655 as a possible bearish target.

13-3-2017-EUR-H1.png

The price is consolidating between the levels 1.0698 – 1.0707. Meanwhile, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.0732 – 1.0739 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0678 – 1.0666.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12829

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GBP/USD: support waiting for bears
3/13/2017

13-3-2017-GBP-H4.png

The pair is moving up and down between the levels 1.2179 – 1.2048. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2198 – 1.2231 in the short term. If a pullback from this area be on the table, there’ll be a chance to have a decline towards a support 1.2120 – 1.2106.

13-3-2017-GBP-H1.png

The 34 Moving Average has been broken. So, the price is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average during the day. If this line acts as a resistance, bears will probably try to achieve the nearest support at 1.2138 – 1.2120.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12830

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USD/JPY: outlook for March 13-17
3/13/2017

USD/JPY spiked to 115.50 in the course of the past week but failed to hold its position on Friday after the US job market report.
The Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision on Thursday. According to surveys of market analysts, the bank will leave its policy unchanged refusing to provide additional stimulus to the stubbornly stagnating economy. The BoJ’s preferred measure of consumer prices has risen in January for the first time since 2015 rekindling some hopes that the inflation will start inching towards 2% target. The main focus of the meeting will be on the further BoJ’s undertakings (whether there will be a reduction of bond purchasing program; whether the bank revamps its present monetary policy stance to hit its mandate targets).

Before we hear from the BOJ though, the US Federal Reserve will first take the stage and announce its rate decision on Wednesday, March 15. The markets are pricing almost 100% chance of the rate hike. If FOMC agrees to raise the interest rate, the greenback will remain supported. Whether it will be able to continue rising will depend on the Fed’s economic projections and the market’s expectations of the Fed’s future actions. In contrast, If Fed refuses to change its benchmark, it will result in a massive market’s backlash. We don’t think that the second scenario is very likely. Another key event of the week that might influence the USD/JPY exchange rate is G20 meeting scheduled for March 17-18: finance ministers and central bankers of the world’s leading economies may comment on currencies.

After the rapid drop from 115.50, the USD may have moved into a consolidation phase at least for the first part of this eventful week. The pair will probably trade in the 113.10-115.10 range (the borders of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe). A break of the upper level will push quotes higher towards resistance at 115.60, 116.40 and 118.60 (this year’s high). A break of the important support at 114.00 (50-day MA) will greatly improve the odds for the further decline towards the nearest supports at 112.85 (100-day MA) and 111.20 (38.2% Fibo retracement level from the last-year low).

USDJPYDaily(35).png

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12832

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USD/CAD: outlook for March 13-17
3/13/2017

USD/CAD spiked to its highest levels since December 29 thanks to growing expectation of the Fed’s March rate hikes and falling oil prices. An ultra-strong ADP jobs report caused the market to price in an upbeat NFP release which resulted in a US dollar decline on Friday despite a strong reading.

Next week, USD/CAD will be dominated by the trend in the US dollar as the economic calendar of its Canadian counterpart is light. Out of Canada there will foreign security purchases and manufacturing data reports both released after the major event of the week – the FOMC meeting scheduled for March 15.  Pay attention to the US inflation figures and retail sales scheduled for release before the Fed’s interest rate announcement. Nearer the end of the week, the focus will shift to G20 meeting where Trump’s administration protectionism and USD appreciation will likely be discussed.

Technically, a bearish Friday’s engulfing candle hints at the correction towards the nearest support at 1.3420 (50 H4 MA), 1.3280 (upper border of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe). On the upside, a break of the resistance at 1.3500 will allow us to target a last year December peak at 1.3595. Before hitting this level, the prices will need to break a very strong resistance at 1.3570 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the weekly timeframe)

USDCADDaily(10).png

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12833

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AUD/USD: outlook for March 13-17
3/13/2017

Australian dollar slid to 0.7490 in the past week pressured by surging US bond yields and weaker commodity prices. On Friday, Aussie regained some of its weekly losses after monthly US job report and rose to 0.7555.

The main focus of this week will be on the FOMC and G20 meetings scheduled for Wednesday and Friday respectively. Ahead of the Fed’s rate announcement, the US CPI report will reveal whether inflation rate is still surging at a rapid pace that has been seen as of late. US building permits, unemployment claims, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be released towards the end of the week, after the Fed’s rate decision. The economic calendar for Australian dollar will be extremely light with only labor data coming on March 16. Overall, it seems that this week the greenback will be a main trendsetter in the AUD/USD currency pair.

After Friday’s rebound, Aussie can move further towards the nearest resistances at 0.7615, 0.7660. However, with growing probability of the rate hike, a further upside in AUD/USD will be complicated. A pullback towards the supports at 0.7530 (200-day MA), 0.7490 (March 9 low) and 0.7468 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe) is not ruled out.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12834

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