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AUD/USD: aussie will be supported by Cloud

2/8/2017

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7620; resistance – 0.7690, 0.7720.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7620/30; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7720.

 

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a correctional irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.

 

03-audusdh4(76).png

 

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NZD/USD outlook on the back of RBNZ announcement

2/8/2017

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to deliver its rate and monetary policy statements today at 10:00 pm MT time. The bank will probably hold its official cash rate on hold at 1.75% even though inflation gathers pace faster than the RBNZ expected. The bank officials will most likely be reluctant to raise interest rate any time soon willing to hinder the NZD appreciation and looking for further pieces of evidence of the acceleration of the actual inflation rates. So, at the coming meeting, RBNZ might adopt a wait-and-see approach and remain in its November’s neutral comfort zone for a while. And such accommodative monetary policy stance may result in market's disappointment.  

 

The kiwi spiked to 0.7375 on Tuesday but failed to hold its positions or rise further. As a result, a bearish shooting star has been formed leading to the retracement in short-term. There are several supports on the downside located at 0.7270 (the lower Bollinger band on the daily timeframe), 0.7245 (100-day MA), that won’t allow kiwi to slide to the bottom. The upcoming RBNZ rate announcement may bring lots of choppiness to the chart which eventually might not result in any gains or losses.IMG]

 

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Key option levels for Wednesday, February 8th

2/8/2017

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(123).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 35 706 ? + 66 233 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.0710; 1.0734; 1.0756; 1.0793

Closest support levels 1.0659; 1.0639; 1.0615; 1.0586

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0659, with target points at 1.0639 and 1.0615

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0710 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0734 and 1.0756

 

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPY(91).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 475 ? + 657 ?

Closest resistance levels 112.31; 112.50; 112.80; 113.02

Closest support levels 111.86; 111.68; 111.35; 110.85

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 112.31, with target points at 112.50 and 112.80

Alternative scenario Moving below 111.86 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 111.68 and 111.35

 

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(104).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 75 ? + 177 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3205; 1.3233; 1.3273; 1.3324

Closest support levels 1.3153; 1.3125; 1.3106; 1.3080

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3153, with the target points at 1.3125 and 1.3106

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3205 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3233 and 1.3273

 

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EUR/USD: "Window" acting as a support

2/8/2017

 

0802eurusdH4.png

 

The price is continue declining, so bears faced a support on the lower “Window”. The market is likely going to try to break this “Window” in the short term. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

 

0802eurusdH1.png

 

We’ve got a developing bearish candle in a range of the “Window”. Also, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, if we see a pullback from the “Window”, bulls will probably try to deliver a local correction. 

 

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USD/JPY: Moving Average going to act as a resistance

2/8/2017

 

0802usdjpyH4.png

 

There’re a “Tower” and a “Hammer”, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could bring any bullish pattern. If so, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

0802usdjpyH1.png

 

We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Harami”, so the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to test the last low one more time.

 

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EUR/USD: wave is on the way

2/8/2017

 

Image20170208145555001.png

 

The price has been declining since wave 2 was ended in a form of a zigzag. Previously a wedge in wave 1 has been formed. Therefore, bears are likely going to break 7/8 MM Level in the short term.

 

Image20170208145555002.png

 

There’s an extension in wave (iii), which is taking place on the one-hour chart. The main intraday target is 0/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave iv. Meanwhile, bears are likely going to deliver wave v of (iii) afterwards.

 

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Review on George Soros's book

2/8/2017

 

George-Soros1-e1351109871212(1).jpg

 

“Scientific method seeks to understand things as they are, while alchemy seeks to bring about a desired state of affairs. To put it another way, the primary objective of science is the truth, - that of alchemy, operational success.” 

― George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance

 

This phrase succinctly explains the meaning of the book's title. The primary objective of trading is to unravel the behavioral pattern of other market participants for generation of maximum profit. 

 

George Soros is best remembered as a speculator who tilted against the Bank of England in 1992. Traders thrust a status of a financial guru upon him. Some people will remember him for his philanthropical conducts. This article was written to present George Soros as a man notable for his crackling wit exerted in the book The Alchemy of Finance.

 

In this writing, the author explains the philosophical underpinning of his approach to financial markets, widely known as the theory of reflexivity. Its main position states as follows: investor’s and trader’s biases can change the fundamentals that assist in determining market prices. According to Mr. Soros, the direction of market prices is determined by market participants, their prevailing expectations. And financial success can be achieved by those who can recognize the dominant patterns in the behavior of market participants. The latter ones cannot predict the future with 100% accuracy; they make presumptions, formulate various hypotheses about how the events will unfold and then submit them to the test engaging in the financial markets’ operations. Prices are mere reflections of the dominant strand of thought in the markets; they foreshadow events, but don’t shape them. If the prevailing view in relation to a certain event is wrong the prices change their direction and adjust to the actual situation.

 

In his book, George Soros describes his own decision-making process. First, he makes a projection with regard to a certain event and then tries it on practice. All his forecasts are extremely tentative and subject to constant revision in the light of market developments. Mr. Soros admits that his predictions are not always consistent with the actual course of events; sometimes his perceptions are flawed. His approach is not to make valid predictions, but to be able to sort out the false ones with the help of the market action mechanism. If you want to know more about Soros’s strategy of trading, read the Alchemy of Finance. For many successful traders, this book has become a desk companion, a plentiful source of inspiration and confidence. Even our old friend Paul Tudor Jones II in his foreword to the first edition of “The Alchemy of Finance” says that he constantly refers to Soros’s writing to regain self-reliance when he enters the inevitable losing streak. 

 

DOWNLOAD THE BOOK 

 

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NZD/JPY reached sell target 82.00

2/8/2017

 

NZD/JPY reached sell target 82.00

Next sell targets – 81.00 and 80.50

NZD/JPY continues to decline following the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the support level 82.50 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from December. The breakout of this support zone intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair – leading to the subsequent breakout of the next support level 82.00 (previous sell target set for this currency pair).

 

NZD/JPY is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 81.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next sell target at 80.50 (low of the previous correction (ii)).

 

NZDJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Feb-08_1613_

 

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EUR/NZD broke key support level 1.4700

2/8/2017

 

EUR/NZD broke key support level 1.4700

Next sell target - 1.4400

EUR/NZD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the key support level 1.4700 (which reversed the previous impulse waves 1 and (i), as can be seen from the daily EUR/NZD chart below). The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the impulse wave 3 of the extended intermediate impulse sequence (3) from last October.

 

EUR/NZD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4400. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR above the aforementioned price level 1.4700.

 

EURNZD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Feb-08_1607_

 

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AUD/USD: bulls are losing their interest
2/9/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart,  bears managed to return quotes to the support at 0.7605. A breakout of this support can lead to the correction towards the 0.754 level. Alternatively, a rise of prices above the 0.7665 level can lead to the restoration of the trend and fulfillment of the target 88.6% in the "Shark" inverted pattern.

Screenshot_2017_02_09_08_21_51.png

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, there is a consolidation within the uptrend. A successful test of the support at 0.7605 will allow Aussie to return to the 0.7515-0.7605 range. To restore the "bullish" trend buyers need to raise quotes above the resistance at 0.769.

Screenshot_2017_02_09_08_22_08.png

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12401

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USD/JPY: Wolf Waves will indicate a further path for the yen
2/9/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a consolidation within the mid-term upward trend. The nearest resistance level is located at the 112.5 level. A successful test of this resistance will allow quotes to return to the previous trading range located at 112.5-114. The support can be found near the 111.15 mark (38.2% level of the last upward medium term wave).

Screenshot_2017_02_09_08_21_13.png

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is a formation of Wolf waves. A breakout of the diagonal resistance at 112.45 will allow opening long positions in direction of 114.55. There is a 161.8% target in the "Crab" inverted pattern.

Screenshot_2017_02_09_08_21_30.png

Recommendation: BUY 112,45 SL 111,90 TP1 113,35 TP2 114,55.

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12402

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Morning brief for February 9
2/9/2017

Kiwi skidded to 0.7190 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate announcement and Governor wheeler’s press conference. The market has been pricing for 1.5 hikes from the RBNZ over the upcoming 12 months after heightened Q4 inflation figures, but the RBNZ made it clear that it is not planning any hikes until 2019. The bank’s officials noted that the present value of NZD is not sustainable for balanced growth, so, they will try to talk it down in the process.

It seems that NZD weakness was carried over to the Aussie as it dipped to 0.7610 in the course of the session having ended it with a modest gain (moved higher to 0.7625 after downfall). Earlier today, we got a NAB business confidence survey that was a bit weaker than the Q3 update. The tone of the survey was rather positive indicating solid investment intentions and adequate long-term employment expectations. So, AUD reacted with a blip on the technical chart. Later today, traders will be watching the RBA Governor Philip Lowe speaking at the A50 Australian Economic Forum.

The US dollar has clawed back a tad against the euro in the early hours of the Asian session. EUR/USD retraced to 1.0680 on the tantalizing prospects of corporate tax reductions, deregulations from Trump’s administration and French election jitters. The latest Institut français d'opinion publique poll shows Macron winning in the second round against le Pen 64:36 because of the two-round system requiring the broad-based support to become the next president. But this doesn’t eliminate uncertainty, as the National Front leader is ahead in polling for the first ballot that is expected on April 23. Today’s focus will be on the US unemployment claims and FOMC member Evans’s speech. Chicago Fed President Evans seems comfortable with multiple hikes this year; so, we might expect some support for the US dollar from his comments.

GBP/USD slid to 1.2595 on the session. The Brexit bill passed by the House of Commons overnight and now it is heading to the unelected Housed of Lords with the final vote to be delivered on March 7. At the time being, Theresa May is meeting her self-imposed deadline for triggering Article 50 by the end of March.  

USD/CAD retraced to 1.3140 in the course of the Asian session mainly on the surging oil prices. Brent oil futures spearheaded on Wednesday after the US crude inventories data indicated an unexpected drop.

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12403

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GBP/USD: pound keep staying in Cloud
2/9/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2450; resistance – 1.2560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the top border of the Cloud.

02-gbpusdh4(69).png

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12404

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USD/JPY: Dollar in Tenkan-Kijun’s channel again
2/9/2017

Technical levels: support – 111.80; resistance – 112.50, 112.70.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 112.50; SL — 112.70; TP1 — 111.80; TP2 — 111.30.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines SSA and SSB are horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal; the prices are in channel of Tenkan-Kijun.

04-usdjpyh4(74).png

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GBP/USD: bulls pushing the market higher
2/9/2017

9-2-2017-GBP-H4-1.png

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2548, so the price achieved the 34 Moving Average, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be a chance to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2599.

9-2-2017-GBP-H1-1.png

The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.2548. Meanwhile, there’s a “Double Top” pattern, so bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2486 – 1.2458. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2571.

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12408

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Trade signal from NAB
2/9/2017

nab_logo.gif

The NAB’s technical analysts draw our attention to the AUD/USD weekly chart. There is a bullish reversal pattern formed in the beginning of this year. Another bullish signal – a crossover of 50 MA and 100 MA on the weekly timeframe. There is a number of long-term resistance lines on the Aussie’s upside path located at 0.7730 (the ascending trendline) and at 0.7778/0.7835 (last year highs). They represent rather difficult hurdles to overcome to establish a more sustainable bullish trend.

Weekly RSI line overcame two key trend lines last week which is a powerful confirmation of the bank’s bullish signal. A weekly close above aforementioned 0.7730- 0.7750 range can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 2016 highs and ultimately towards 0.8150/0.8300 in the long-term.

AUDUSDWeekly(1).png

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Key option levels for Thursday, February 9th
2/9/2017

EUR/USD

EURUSD(124).png

Main trend     Short-term period     Medium-term period
Bearish     Neutral
Changes in the open interest     + 41 518 ?     + 451 586 ?
Closest resistance levels     1.0723; 1.0746; 1.0784; 1.0811
Closest support levels     1.0698; 1.0679; 1.0656; 1.0638
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario     Short EUR/USD below 1.0698, with target points at 1.0679 and 1.0656
Alternative scenario     Moving above 1.0699 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0723 and 1.0746

GBP/USD

GBPUSD(104).png

Main trend     Short-term period     Medium-term period
Bullish     Bearish
Changes in the open interest     + 755 ?     + 22 ?
Closest resistance levels     1.2581; 1.2608; 1.2625; 1.2645
Closest support levels     1.2528; 1.2506; 1.2487; 1.2437
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal)     Long GBP/USD above 1.2581, with target points at 1.2608 and 1.2625
Alternative scenario     Moving below 1.2528 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2506 and 1.2487

USD/CAD

USDCAD(105).png

Main trend     Short-term period     Medium-term period
Bullish     Bullish
Changes in the open interest     + 311 ?     + 107 ?
Closest resistance levels     1.3154; 1.3179; 1.3196; 1.3226
Closest support levels     1.3135; 1.3108; 1.3082; 1.3046
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario     Long USD/CAD above 1.3154, with the target points at 1.3179 and 1.3196
Alternative scenario     Moving below 1.3135 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3108 and 1.3082

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12410

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7 imminent risks you should worry about
2/9/2017

Shadow-IT-Dangers-and-Risks-hero.jpeg

The biggest threats to portfolio/financial accounts you should beware of

1. Bonds

Many asset managers see the hazard on the bond side. The bond yields reached historically low in July 2016; then, the yields on government bonds skyrocketed due to the upbeat macroeconomic releases and uptick in inflation rates. Surging yields hurt investors holding the debt and raise financing costs for companies.

2. US Dollar

The resurgence of the US and European economies marks the end of the global economic crisis lasting for almost 10 consecutive years. The danger now is an unexpected rally in bond yields coupled with a significant upsurge in the US dollar exchange rate. It can be very disruptive for markets especially for the emerging ones because investors would rather favor US assets than risk-taking developing markets’ currencies. Strong greenback hurts the country’s exporters and decreases corporate profits.

3. Trump’s policies

Market participants can be grossly disappointed once Trump’s expansionary policies are not realized. Increased spending, tax cuts, and deregulation policies have already well priced in my market participants.

4. China

China could be the biggest threat to global economic and market stability. The economic growth of the country may eventually slow down. Another key risk to the Chinese economy in 2017 and 2018 is the possibility that faster than expected U.S. interest rate increases could intensify Chinese capital outflows posing additional pressure on China's financial system and exposing it to a debt crisis. China's debt to GDP ratio rose to 277% at the end of 2016 from 254% the previous year; the number is expected to exceed 300% of GDP in the next 2 years.

5. The Fed

The Fed can be more hawkish than the market expects if the US steps into the inflationary spiral. Heightened inflation rates could prompt the Fed to raise the interest rates more often. This would decelerate the US economic growth rates and dent investor appetite for risk assets.

6. Europe

Upcoming elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands potentially leading to the victory of anti-establishment candidates place a downside pressure on the euro and strengthen the US dollar. Also, there is a chance of early elections in Italy. The Apennine Peninsula also has its populist movements (greeting to Five Star Movement).

7. Australia

RBA Governor Philip Lowe has recently placed financial stability at the forefront of monetary policy. Homeowners, property investors and consumers around Australia started to refer to financial helplines as three warning signs pick up the demand: lenders’ bad debt provisions have increased mortgage arrears are increasing, personal insolvencies are at their highest levels. Australians’ private debt spiked to 187% of their income encouraged by low-interest rates. Australia’s households are probably ones of the most indebted in the world with $1 trillion of mortgages amid a housing boom that spread in various parts of the country. Australia was almost deprived of its AAA rating in December. Now, it should face this debt problem until it is too late.

The realization of at least one of the aforementioned scenarios can spur a chain reaction potentially leading to the new financial crashes or global economic crises.

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12411

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EUR/USD: consolidation going to move on
2/9/2017

0902eurusdH4.png

We’ve got a “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a bullish “Three Methods”. So, there’s an opportunity to have another test of the lower “Window”, which could be a departure point to a local upward price movement.

0902eurusdh1.png

There’re a “Doji” and a “High Wave”, which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower “Window” during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test the Moving Averages.

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12413

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USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
2/9/2017

0902usdjpyH4.png

The price is still consolidating on the four-hours chart. Also, there’s a “Tower” and an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low. So, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be a chance to have another decline.

0902usdjpyH1.png

The last “Doji” and “Tower” patterns led to the current upward price movement. Meanwhile, bulls are likely going to move on. So, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as a possible intraday target.

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12415

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EUR/USD: bearish extension
2/9/2017

Image20170209165405002.png

We’ve got a possible zigzag in wave 2, so the price is declining in wave . Previously, a wedge in wave 1 has been formed. The main intraday target is 7/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for a local upward correction.

Image20170209165405001.png

There’s a possible extension in wave (iii). Therefore, wave v of (iii) is likely going to be continued. If a pullback from 0/8 MM Level arrives afterwards, bulls will probably try to deliver wave (iv).

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12416

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NZD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7400
2/9/2017

    NZD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7400
    Next sell target – 0.7120

NZD/USD recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 0.7400 (which stopped the previous intermediate (B)-wave in November and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The downward reversal from this resistance level created the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Shooting Star.

NZD/USD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7120 (which reversed the price in the middle of January and which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from December).

NZDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Feb-09_1616_

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12417

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AUD/NZD broke resistance level 1.0600
2/9/2017

    AUD/NZD broke resistance level 1.0600
    Next buy target - 1.0650

AUD/NZD continues to rise following the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from November and the resistance level 1.0550 (which reversed the previous waves B and (ii), as can be seen below). The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January.

Having just broken the resistance level 1.0600 - AUD/NZD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0650 (former monthly high from November).

AUDNZD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Feb-09_1616_

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12418

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USD/CAD: loonie is wandering in the channels
2/10/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, Wolf wave are still relevant. The diagonal line of resistance shifted lower due to the formation of a new fractal. A necessary condition for the restoration of "bullish" trend is the successful test of 1.3220 and 1.3305 levels. The nearest support can be found near the 1.3 level.

Screenshot_2017_02_10_07_24_39.png

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, a successful test of the resistance at 1.315 followed by the quotes' exit from the descending trading channel will allow "bulls" to regain their confidence. But first, they will have to keep quotes above the 1.3125 mark (38.2% level of the AB wave).

Screenshot_2017_02_10_07_24_56.png

Recommendation: BUY 1,315 SL 1,3095 TP 1,3305.

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12421

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Gold isn't afraid of the correction
2/10/2017

On the daily chart of gold "bulls" failed to attack the resistance located at $1,241. The rollback sent quotes towards the support at $1,220. If it is tested successfully, bears may count on the movement towards the upward trading channel.

Screenshot_2017_02_10_07_25_13.png

On the hourly chart of gold, the trendline in the "Splash and reversal with acceleration" pattern has been broken. The correction in the direction of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel is likely to continue.

Screenshot_2017_02_10_07_25_32.png

Recommendation: BUY $1206 SL $1190 TP $1235.

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https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12422

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