riki143 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 GBP/USD: "Pennant" led to another decline 1/31/2017 The pair found a support on the 34 Moving Average, so there’s a “V-Bottom” pattern. Under this circumstances, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance between the levels 1.2548 – 1.2581. Considering the previously formed “V-Top” pattern, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.2432 later on. There’s a “V-Bottom”, which has been formed under the 89 Moving Average. So, the price is consolidating. It’s likely that the pair is going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581 during the day. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be a chance to have another decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2465 – 1.2432. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12266 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 EUR/USD: euro returned to SSA 1/31/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0690; resistance – 1.0715, 1.0770. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0700; SL — 1.0680; TP1 — 1.0770; TP2 – 1.0810. 2. Sell — 1.0670; SL — 1.0690; TP1 — 1.0605; TP2 – 1.0560. Reason: bullish but narrowing Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all the lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; the prices are under resistance of Senkou Span A. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12267 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 GBP/USD: going to the Cloud 1/31/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2420, 1.2490; resistance – 1.2530, 1.2570. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2490; SL — 1.2470; TP1 — 1.2530; TP2 — 1.2570. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under Tenkan and Kijun, but supported by the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12268 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 USD/TRY: short- and medium-term outlook 1/31/2017 The lira fell to the record minimum on January 11 becoming the worst performing emerging market currencies. The nation’s currency was hit by investors’ heightened risk sentiments that aroused as a result of insecurity, political uncertainty, and economic slowdown. A string of terror attacks in Turkey, worries about political instability followed by July coup d'état attempt have sent Turkish lira lower. S&P and Fitch had to downgrade Turkey’s credit rating in the aftermath of the listed events. No wonder, the lira slumped to historical lows under such pressure. Turkey’s central bank decided to get things under control and recourse to monetary policy tightening to revive the lira’s exchange rate. On January 24, the Monetary Policy Committee raised its overnight lending interest rate by 75 basis points to 9.25 % and promised to tighten further if needed to offset the impact of the lira’s devaluation on inflation. But this measure didn’t help lira to pare its losses against the greenback, as market participants expected more from the Turkish central bank (traders were hoping for the sharp benchmark repo rate hike). On January 30, Turkish lira managed to firm by more than 1% as investors partially shrugged off sovereign debt downgrades by credit rating agencies amid central bank’s attempts to tighten liquidity. The recent weakening of the US dollar following the inaction of Trump’s protectionist orders has also played into the hands of lira. Many believe that Turkish central bank will have to undertake even more tightening measures to push the lira higher. If they succeed the lira will hold its current positions against the greenback for a while. But in the longer term, as soon as Trump’s administration introduces its fiscal stimulus, the lira is poised to resume devaluation. Short-term projections are neutral; USD/TRY will continue its consolidative movement in the narrow range of 3.7700 (Jan. 30 low)/3.7349 (Jan. 24 low) – 3.8245 (the border of Ichimoku cloud on the H4 timeframe). Next week can offer modest support for the lira, if the Fed takes a non-hawkish stance at its meeting (it could be the case, as there is still no signs of Trump’s expansionary fiscal policy on the horizon; weak NFP and labor market releases should cool the Fed’s eagerness to raise interest rates). Return below 3.7160 (Jan. 13 low) is needed to signal the uptrend reversal. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12270 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 News trading strategies 1/31/2017 You can snatch a large sum of money trading news. By news, we mean various economic data releases. However, if you don’t have a solid plan for trading a particular event, it’s better not to engage in any trades at all as erratic disorderly price movements may drain your pocket faster than a flash in the pan. In this article, we will get to the bottom of trading on news and economic releases. Trading using economic releases The markets tend to price in future economic growth and prosperity. As rule of thumb, economic growth means future prosperity which then equals to a strengthening of the currency. The traders look for these upticks in economic growth (positive economic releases) as they usually offer opportunities to jump on an uptrend. In contrast, economic reports showing a slack in economic growth result in the weakening of the currency. The economic calendar is the key tool that helps traders not to miss important events. The key principle – the future value of the currency is defined based on whether the actual data hits, misses or exceeds consensus forecast. The consensus is the mean of estimates from a number of experts, market analysts who have been polled prior to the publication of a particular release. If the actual data doesn’t match the forecast (the figures we got are worse than we expected), the currency depreciates. A number that is close to our forecast has usually negligible effect, and if the headline of the report exceeds the market’s expectations the currency appreciates. Tips: focus on the most important news that could produce the greatest effect on the market; wait for the publication of the chosen release, and then dive into trade according to the plan; the market’s reaction lasts from 30 min up to 2 hours; if your fundamental reasoning, technical analysis fail to realize, and the market’s reaction to the news doesn’t match your expectation; you should follow the market trend (probably you missed some important details in your analysis, or misinterpreted the effect of a given release upon its publication); don’t rush into trade; wait for really strong signals and their confirmation. In this article, we fill you in on three strategies that can be used for trading the news. Slingshot strategy The slingshot strategy seeks to scale out of winning positions as the trade moves in the trader’s favor. Before opening the position, identify support and resistance. These are your “cut points” with which you can close off the position if prices go against you. Authors of the strategy advice to define stop distance on the position prior to the publication of the report. If you see that prices go in your favor, but you’re not sure how long it will last, you may scale out your position and wait for prices go in the same direction. You can repeat the same procedure until the trend reversal. But beware of the volatility! If you’re trading in a highly volatile market, spreads can widen so quickly, that your stops can be triggered before prices begin trending. This could be disastrous for your bet. Imagine you decided to go EUR/USD long with 15 pip stop, if spread widens out to 30 pips, this will trigger your stop loss and actually won’t bring you much harm. But what if prices go up 150 pips and you haven’t got a remaining position even though your initial guess on price movements was right? Well, this wouldn’t work well for you as in such a case you would be fooled by a false breakout. Unfortunately, it’s not in our powers to define how widely the spreads may spike. In order to reduce the risk of false breakout during the highly volatile period of news releases you can do the following thing: once you notice on H1 chart that the price is 10 pips below the key support (or above the key resistance level), a put a stop entry order 10 pips above (or below) that key level. This way you will be able to benefit on the market’s reversal after some initial swing. Trading on expectations: buy the rumor, sell the fact The idea is very straightforward: you should understand the market’s sentiment in relation to a particular currency and then open position according to the direction of this sentiment. There are short-term and long-term market sentiments. Regular traders prefer trading in a short period of time, as they don’t have sufficient amount of money to maintain open positions in the periods of high volatility. Short-term sentiment is defined by economic news. If market participants expect the data to exceed the consensus forecast, they will try to take this into consideration. For example, if market participants wait for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its interest rate, the exchange rate of AUD will be rising before the bank’s meeting (the probable rate hikes will be well priced in by the time the actual RBA meeting takes place). Once the RBA raised its interest rate, those market participants that had been ready for such turn of affairs would probably start selling AUD/USD and the pair would actually decline after the rate hike. In order to be better off in such situation, you need: To be up-to-date on the forthcoming events and economic releases. To keep track of the recent economic releases and watch for the market’s reaction. To know the correlation between various news releases (for example, how retail sales may influence GDP, PPI, CPI, ext.; if retail sales go ahead of market’s expectation, we may wait for a strong GDP release). Trading spikes This strategy can be applied when you trade on the very important news or economic releases such as Non-Farm Employment Change (Non-Farm Payrolls – NFP). It’s one of the most influential statistic indicators published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It measures the number of jobs created in the nonfarm sector in the US in a month. NFP is usually released on the first Friday every month. Nonfarm payrolls may send lots of shockwaves to the technical charts. That’s why many traders prefer to wait for the dust to settle (they don’t rush into the trade right after the announcement) and trade when they grasp a better idea of the effect the data has produced. Your actions before the release: look at the range in which the pair is trading at the present moment, then in 5 minutes before the release place two pending orders (BUY STOP – 20 pips above the current price and SELL STOP – 20 pips below the current price). Place take profit 40 pips above and below the current price. You can place your stop loss at the current price in 5 minutes before the release or choose not to place it at all. In the case of the favorable outcome, you can close the deal with profit (don’t forget to close another order). If you are lucky you can make money from both of your bets (if prices change their direction and go higher/lower, before falling/rising). If the outcome is negative, the prices will move in the one of the direction, open the first order, but fail to reach your take profit. Then, prices will move in the opposite direction, open another order, but won’t reach the take profit level. If you have a stop, your losses will be limited. If you didn’t place any stops upon your entry, you can try to compensate your losses by opening new orders. July 8, 2016 On that day US NFP added 287K (the forecast was 175K). However, the unemployment rate increased more than expected (from 4.7% to 4.9%), that's why there was such volatile and contradictory reaction in EUR/USD. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12274 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 EUR/USD: consolidation going to move on 1/31/2017 We’ve got a possible “Piercing Line” on the 55 Moving Average, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak, because the lower “Window” is acting as a support. So, the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement. The nearest “Window” is acting as a support, so we’ve got a “Harami” pattern on this level. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction, but bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12275 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window" 1/31/2017 The lower “Window” acted as a support twice, so we’ve got a “Three methods” pattern. Also, there’re a “Hammer” and an “Engulfing” at the local low. If these patterns confirm, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance level. The last “Window” remains open, but we’ve got a “Doji” at the local low. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the market is likely going to reach the 34 & 89 Moving Averages, which could be a departure point for a local decline. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12276 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Life lessons from Nick Leeson 1/31/2017 Once upon a time, there was a whiz kid, very talented fella, who first managed to deserve the confidence of worldly-wise Barings bank’s bigshots, and then, incurred huge losses on them with his speculative trades. This article is dedicated to the rogue trader named Nick Leeson known for trading the Barings bank out of existence. Nick grew up in the ordinary working class family with no money and connections. By 1990s, he managed to become a really valuable employee at Barings bank as he brought large profits betting on the future direction of the Nikkei Index. His bosses trusted him implicitly, knowing that this smart young genius is unbeatable and infallible in his guesses. Life lesson №1 – people with positive self-esteem and gift of gab are proved to be successful. In 1992, Leeson began making unauthorized speculative trades that very soon turned sour. Leeson had to open a secret account numbered 88888 (the lucky number in Chinese numerology, by the way) to cover his losses from the company. Life lesson №2 – don’t be superstitious and never trust pseudoscience’s assurances Trying to rectify past losses, Nick continued making speculative trades and turned its “lucky account” in the red by alarmingly 208 million pounds. Barings executives were still kept in the dark of Leeson’s scam. On January 16, 1995, Nick placed a short straddle (a very risky trading strategy) in the Tokyo and Singapore stock exchanges. But fortune paid a low-down trick with Nick; the next day, the Great Hanshin Earthquake struck and ruined Leeson’s plan to recoup his losses trading risky assets. Nick’s second attempt to turn account 88888 in green ended with a fizzle. Life lesson №3 – don’t have a high aspiration for yourself and don’t push on the luck; remember of fate's perversity. Trade wisely and cautiously, and don’t walk into the same water twice. On February 23, 1995, Leeson decided that the situation was beyond his control and that he would never redeem himself (oh, finally). So, he fled with his wife, leaving an innocent note, “I’m sorry”. Very soon, Barings executive discovered what he had done. But it was too late. Barings, the personal bank to the Queen of England known for its solid reputation went bust. Nick Leeson was captured and put behind the bars in Singapore for his fraud. His wife found work as a stewardess to have a chance to see his beloved husband regularly. But their marriage started to bulge at the seams. The last straw was Leeson’s infidelity with Geisha girls. So, his wife divorced with Nick immediately. Life lesson №4 – don’t cheat on your wives In 1999, Leeson was diagnosed with colon cancer. After that, he was released from prison and went back to the native land where he underwent chemotherapy having lost his hair and weight. Nick hadn’t got work, home, relatives, the family that could support him in times of need. But he managed to survive and kill his illness. Very soon, he married again, found a job in prestigious Galway United Football Club as a commercial manager, published numerous books and became successful once again. Life lesson №5 – never give up; be a survivor; if you are given a second chance, grab it with both hands. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12277 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 NZD/JPY reversed from resistance zone 1/31/2017 NZD/JPY reversed from resistance zone Next sell target – 82.00 NZD/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the strong resistance level 83.60 (which earlier reversed the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor impulse wave (iii). NZD/JPY is expected to fall toward the next sell target at the support level 82.00, intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from the end of December. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12278 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 GBP/CAD falling inside minor impulse wave 3 1/31/2017 GBP/CAD falling inside minor impulse wave 3 Next sell target - 1.6000 GBP/CAD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance area lying between the resistance level 1.6620 (which also stopped the previous waves (iv) and (, as can be seen below) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of November. The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover. GBP/CAD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.6000. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12279 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Key option levels for Wednesday, February 1st 2/1/2017 * Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Wednesday after 01:45 CT (Central Time) * EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 24 213 ? + 62 191 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0826; 1.0855; 1.0880; 1.0896 Closest support levels 1.0782; 1.0751; 1.0730; 1.0704 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0826, with target points at 1.0855 and 1.0880 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0782 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0751 and 1.0730 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 937 ? + 1 038 ? Closest resistance levels 113.13; 113.43; 113.64; 114.14 Closest support levels 112.17; 111.88; 111.43; 110.84 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 113.13, with target points at 113.43 and 113.64 Alternative scenario Moving below 112.17 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 111.88 and 111.43 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 343 ? + 460 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3108; 1.3132; 1.3163/73; 1.3193 Closest support levels 1.3016; 1.3001; 1.2982; 1.2945 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3108, with the target points at 1.3132 and 1.3163 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3016 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3001 and 1.2982 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12282 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Brent is on the ledge 2/1/2017 On the daily chart of Brent, there is a consolidation in the range of $53,75-57,25 within the ascending trading channel. The bulls will continue to keep the situation under control until prices fall below support at $48. On the hourly chart of Brent futures, there is a formation of the "Splash and ledge" pattern based on the 1-2-3. The combination of this pattern with the "Three Indians" pattern is a serious reversal formation. A breakout of the support at $53.75 can lead to the correction towards $51. In contrast, a successful test of the resistance at $57.37 will increase the likelihood of the restoration of the "bullish" trend. Recommendation: BUY $57,37 SL $55,45 TP $60,8, SELL $53,75 SL $55,45 TP $51. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12283 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 GBP/USD: bulls are willing to restore the trend 2/1/2017 On the GBP/USD daily chart, a short-term correction towards the "bullish" trend allowed to form an upward trading channel. The pound will have to fulfill 88.6% target in the "Crab" inverted pattern. A breakout of the resistance at 1,261 (78.6% Fibo level of the last mid-term downward wave) will facilitate its fulfillment. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, a rebound from the support at 1,241 (38.2% Fibo level of the last upward wave) was the signal that the correction is completed. To restore the "bullish" trend buyers need to test the resistance at 1,261. Recommendation: BUY 1,261 SL 1,2555 TP 1,271. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12284 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Morning brief for February 1 2/1/2017 EUR/USD firmed significantly overnight having risen to 1.0790. It was the market’s knee-jerk reaction to the latest statements from the Trump’s administration. US President and his trade adviser Peter Navarro criticized Germany, China, and Japan for their depredatory and unfair monetary policies aiming at the devaluation of domestic currencies. Sensitivity over the greenback’s strength is becoming an issue and could come into Fed calculations. Market participants don’t expect fireworks from today’s FOMC meeting. The market is pricing barely a 20% change of the rate hike at the upcoming meeting. We would recommend you to focus on the Fed’s wording; there might be given some clues on the timing of the next lift in rates. There are also the ISM Manufacturing report and ADP NFP coming from the US before the FOMC statement. Japan’s yen gained more than 1% overnight on the broad weakening of the US dollar after Trump and Navarro unleashed a barrage of criticism against its major trading partners. USD/JPY slumped to 112.03 yesterday, but then it partially recouped its losses in the course of the Asian session having risen to 113.10. Unless USD manages 113.95 on the session, we expect the downside movement. Aussie tested 0.7600 level yesterday but failed to develop consolidation there. At the present moment, it almost gave back its yesterday’s gains in the pair with USD. Kiwi spiked to 0.7350 overnight but then slid back to 0.7270 on the Asian session. USD/CAD gathered a bullish momentum trying to rectify its yesterday’s losses and advanced to 1.3077. Oil prices dipped on Wednesday under pressure of the ongoing high supplies. Brent futures were trading lower at $55.40 in the course of the past session. Today’s focus will on the US crude oil inventories that might offer modest support to oil prices (the consensus forecast indicates a slight drop in the US inventories). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12285 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 EUR/USD: bullish "Pennant" 2/1/2017 The 89 Moving Average acted as a support, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0815 – 1.0850 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards the next support at 1.0774 – 1.0745. The price faced a resistance at 1.0815, but we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern. In this case, bulls are likely going to test an area between the levels 1.0815 – 1.0830 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to test the closest support at 1.0795 – 1.0774. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12286 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 GBP/USD: bulls going to test the last high 2/1/2017 The pair found a support on the 55 Moving Average, so a “V-Bottom” pattern has been formed. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2619 – 1.2675 shortly. At the same time, if bulls be stopped by these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2581 – 1.2548. There’s a “V-Bottom”, so the price achieved a resistance at 1.2581. Meanwhile, we’ve got a “Pennant”, so bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2639 – 1.2674 during the day. If a pullback from these levels happens, bears will probably try to push the market towards a support at 1.2581 – 1.2548. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12287 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 EUR/USD: euro going higher 2/1/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0760; resistance – 1.0810, 1.0900. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0760; SL — 1.0740; TP1 — 1.0810; TP2 – 1.0900. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all the lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; the prices are on the new local highs. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12288 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 AUD/USD: ready to start 2/1/2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7560/70; resistance – 0.7610. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7610; TP2 — 0.7660. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling lines; the prices are supported by the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12289 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Banks peeked into the FOMC statement and saw that… 2/1/2017 The FOMC meeting is due at 21:00 MT time. The banks scrambled to express their views on the wording of the statement and possible US dollar’s reaction. Most of the analysts believe that the FOMC will likely keep its policy unchanged holding rates at the 50-75bp range and making only modest revision to the December statement. Credit Agricole strategists note that Chair Yellen in her last speech said that there are few signs that the US labor market is overheated, which means that the Fed shouldn’t be in hurry to raise its benchmark preferring to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Next Friday’s NFP release should be a bigger driver for the US currency rather than today’s meeting, according to the bank’s analysts. BofA Merrill doesn’t expect the fireworks from the FOMC meeting but waits for some “hawkish” revisions to the statement. The bank’s strategists believe that the FOMC members will highlight the heightened activity in labor market and note that confidence measures have improved. Also, they wait for the confirmation for a March rate hike which if received should steepen the greenback’s path. SocGen analysts expect a minor reaction from the market participants to the upcoming FOMC meeting. According to them, Trump's immigration policy and Friday’s NFP data will be key drivers for the US dollar this week. They suggest going long EUR/JPY. With the BoJ refusing to change its loosening monetary policy stance and adhering to its long-term yield target; the recent strengthening of the euro, it looks like a good trading idea. AUD should be also taken into consideration. Australia looks a haven of calm at the present moment. GBP is poised to trade sideways as the debate on the Brexit bill is still going on. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12291 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Your volatility calendar for February 2/1/2017 FOMC Meeting February 1, 21:00 MT time The FOMC decision on the federal funds rate and the corresponding statement are due at 21:00 MT time. The policy of the Federal Reserve is extremely important for the dynamics of the US dollar. This is the first Fed’s meeting since Donald Trump officially became the US president. According to the forecasts made in December, the FOMC members were aiming at 3 rate hikes at 2017. However, the Fed’s chairwoman Janet Yellen in her recent speech said that she can’t be precise about the timing of interest-rate hikes. No policy changes are expected this time, but traders will still pay great attention to the central bank’s statement looking for hints about its future plans. If the Fed confirms its intention to raise rates this year, the greenback will strengthen, but if the regulator sounds cautious, the US currency will decline. Bank of England’s meeting February 2, 14:00 MT time The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will announce its interest rate decision at 14:00 MT time. This event is of paramount importance for the pound’s value. Traders keep in focus this event striving to forecast the future exchange rate of the sterling. The central bank is not expected to change its monetary policy, but comments of its Governor about the rising inflation will be important. If Mark Carney acknowledges the strength of British economy, the pound will get a short-term boost. If Carney, on the contrary, underlines that uncertainty about the nation’s economic future is still present, the pound will keep snapping its recent recovery. US Nonfarm Payrolls February 3, 15:30 MT time Nonfarm payrolls are scheduled to be released at 15:30 MT time. The report will reveal the number of jobs created in the United States in January. It is one of the major currency drivers as it allows us to assess the overall health of the US economy. The release often provokes great movements in Forex majors. RBA Meeting February 7, 05:30 MT time Traders will be able to get insights about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s current and future monetary policy at 5:30 MT time. The RBA monetary policy directly affects the exchange rate of Australian dollar, so those who prefer trading Aussie should beware of the upcoming event. RBNZ Rate Statement February 8, 22:00 MT time Reserve Bank of New Zealand is due to announce its interest rate at 22:00 MT time. Last time RBNZ lowered its official cash rate by a quarter point to 1.75% and promised to stay on hold in the near term until New Zealand’s economy needs additional stimulus. The kiwi is very sensitive to this sort of events. So, don’t miss to capitalize on the RBNZ rate announcement this time! Japanese Preliminary GDP February 13, 01:50 MT time Japan’s preliminary GDP for the fourth quarter will be released at 01:50 MT time. Preliminary GDP is the earliest indicator of the country’s economic health. Therefore, it tends to have the biggest impact on the national currency. All in all, the reading should be fine: stronger December Nikkei PMI suggests that the overall rate of economic growth will have accelerated in Q4 from the 0.3% expansion seen in 3 months to September. JPY should appreciate on stronger data. US CPI February 15, 15:30 MT time Inflation is crucial for the US dollar’s valuation. Heightened inflation rates represent a reason for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in order to maintain the prices stable. US CPI (Consumer Price Index) is closely watched by the Fed’s officials. Any significant deviation from the norm can lead to rate hikes, while lower figures, on the contrary, would disappoint USD bulls. That’s why traders need to keep track of American CPI. Australian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate February 16, 02:30 MT time This is a vital piece of economic data that directly influences Australian dollar’s exchange rate. The higher the employment is, the better the country’s economic growth becomes. Unemployment rate allows to make projections of the currency’s future value as jobless citizens tend to spend less. As a result, traders are very attentive to any changes in these labor market indicators. FOMC Meeting Minutes February 22, 21:00 MT time The Federal Reserve will release a detailed record of its January meeting at 21:00 MT time, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Traders always care about the additional information from the US central bank. The release will affect the US dollar. US preliminary GDP February 22, 15:30 MT time US preliminary GDP will be published at 15:30 MT time. This is the second estimate of American economic growth in the last 3 months of 2016. The first estimate released in January missed forecasts showing that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in Q4, below expectations of 2.2%. The greenback has direct correlation with this release. If the figures are revised to the upside, the US dollar will rise. In case of the downward revision USD will fall. Private Capital Expenditure February 23, 02:30 MT time Australian dollar tends to react very actively to the private capital expenditure (Capex) releases as Capex is an early indicator of a country’s economic growth. Traders closely watch this event to decipher its impact on the currency. Don’t miss the chance to make money on the Capex data coming at 02:30 MT time! Capital expenditure release is an important signal of Australian economic activity. Don’t miss the movement in AUD/USD! More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12292 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 What to expect from Bank of England’s meeting? 2/1/2017 The BoE is due to release its rate decision, minutes and inflation report at 14:00 MT time, followed by Carney’s press conference. Key things to watch Growth After the Brexit vote, pessimistic BoE’s senior officials had to slash their GDP forecast for the UK. But as everybody knows, time is a great healer; the British economy showed colossal resilience and dissipated the bank’s fears of looming economic slowdown. So, at the November meeting, the BoE had to revise its forecast for the gross domestic growth for 2017 to 1.4% from 0.8%. The subsequent economic data didn’t disappoint policy makers’ expectations. The latest reading of the UK GDP has held better. In fact, it overshot BoE estimates of 0.4%, rising by 0.6% instead. This will probably encourage the BoE to upgrade its forecasts once again at the upcoming meeting. Inflation The first reaction to the Brexit vote was a plunge in sterling’s exchange rate that pushed the UK inflation rate to 1.6% (two-year high). At the November meeting, the BoE guessed for 2.7% inflation rate in 2017. Since then oil prices spiked 8% which may push the bank to lift its last forecast for inflation to 2.8% for 2017. But the bigger upticks in inflation rates are unlikely. The recent appreciation of the pound slightly clipped the wings of inflation. Interest rate Strong economic growth and rising inflation rates usually lead to the rise in inflation rates. But super cautious BoE will likely shy away from raising rates expecting grievous, devastating consequences for the UK economy after Brexit. The UK’s separation with the EU is likely to hit business activity and slow consumer spending. The recent rise in sterling, however, offered the BoE a greater room for manoeuvre. Now, the bank can raise interest rates without hurting employment. We must note that this was a major concern of rate-setters in November. Overall, the strong economic data and stronger GBP should increase the chances the BoE will change its current neutral-to-dovish stance to just neutral or even to neutral-hawkish one. This will certainly push the pound higher in short-term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12293 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver wave (v) of [c] 2/1/2017 Wave 2 has been developing in a form of a zigzag. Therefore, a bullish impulse in wave [c] is likely going to be continued, so we should keep an eye on +1/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in wave . As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a Double Three pattern in wave . So, there’s a developing impulse in wave [c] of 2. In this case, there’s a chance to have an impulse in wave (v) of [c], so we could have a new local high during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12294 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as a resistance 2/1/2017 We’ve got a possible “Piercing Line” on the lower “Window”. At the same time, there’s an “Advance Block” at the local high, so there’s an opportunity to have a local correction. However, bulls are likely going to test the upper “Window” afterwards. We’ve got two bearish “Harami” in a row. If the last pattern confirms, the pair is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12295 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 USD/JPY: bullish "High Wave" 2/1/2017 The lower “Window” has acted as a support again, so we’ve got a “Hammer” and an “Engulfing”. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance. If any bearish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be a chance to have another decline towards the last low. The last “High Wave” pattern has done a good job, so we’ve got a “Harami” and a “Tweezers” on the 34 Moving Average. However, both patters haven’t been confirmed yet. So, there’s an opportunity to have a local bearish correction, but bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12296 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 EUR/USD broke resistance zone 2/1/2017 EUR/USD broke resistance zone Next buy target – 1.0850 EUR/USD recently broke the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.0770 (which stopped the previous minor corrective wave (a)) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous downward impulse from November. The breakout of this resistance zone continues the active minor (iv)-wave from the start of January. If the price closes today above the resistance level 1.0770, EUR/USD can then be expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0850 (top of the earlier correction (iv) and the forecast price calculated for the completion of the active (iv)-wave) More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12297 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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