riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Morning brief for November 18,2016 11/18/2016 USD/JPY surged above 110.55. The greenback was buoyed after Fed Chair Yellen confirmed that a rate hike could come “relatively” soon. Yesterday the BOJ launched an implementation of its yield curve policy buying JGBs to weaken the yen. Today the bank’s operations were renewed. Another factor that contributes to the strengthening of USD is the rise of the US Treasuries. PM of Japan Shinzo Abe and future US president Donald Trump are going to meet today. Traders will be watching for any comments from Trump on its policy in relation to Japan and other Asian countries. In the course of his election campaign he was repeatedly accusing Japanese and Chinese governments of currency manipulations threatening to impose tariffs on their imports. EUR/USD slumped to 1.0620, a low that the pair experienced a year ago. Today traders will be waiting for the ECP president Mario Draghi speech at the 26th European Banking Congress at 10:30 am (Metatrader time). Volatility is usually experienced as he speaks. AUD/USD slumped below 0.7370 on the Asian session mainly on the USD strengthening. NZD/USD fell as well. This week was rather “shaky” for New Zealand as it is struggling with damages after huge Monday’s earthquake. Statistics New Zealand did a great job. Its website is listing some of the delayed data that is not officially released (official data releases will commence from Monday). The retail sales report is in line with expectation (+0.9% prior +2.3%), but treat this result with caution until official figures surface. GBP/USD edged down below the support at 1.2420. Today’s session should be rather smooth for the pound. USD/CAD rose to 1.3582 (50% Fibo retracement level from January 2016 high). Brent oil futures fell to $46 mark hit by the US dollar’s strength. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11367 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 GBP/USD weekly outlook for Nov.21-25, 2016 11/18/2016 GBP/USD fell this week mainly on the strengthening of the US dollar. On Tuesday, the Bank of England governor Mark Carney in his testimony to the Treasury Select Committee said that he expects the inflation rate to rise despite the weak report on the latest annual CPI. This makes us believe that Bank of England won’t recourse to easing measures in the near-term future. On Wednesday, we had good data releases on the UK labor market. On Thursday, the pound rose on the upbeat retail sales release and on the speculation, that “Brexit” might be delayed up to 2 years. Despite the decent statistical data coming from the UK, the pound failed to outpace the US dollar which continues to rise in relation to other major currencies. Next week on Wednesday traders will be watching for the Autumn Statement. It can have a negative impact on the pound as Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will have to admit the largest deterioration in British public finance since 2011. On Friday, keep in focus quarterly releases of the inflation-adjusted GDP and preliminary business investment coming from the UK. Technically, GBP/USD has room for appreciation up to the nearest resistance lines located at 1.2435 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud), 1.2460 (50 MA on H4) and 1.2550. It is confirmed by the daily Stochastic which remains in the oversold territory. 100 MA crossed 200 MA on H4 and moved upwards. But the likelihood of the Fed’s December rate hike on the back of accelerating growth of the US economy should outweigh the pound’s attempts to grow and send quotes towards 1.2355, 1.2230 levels. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11369 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Key option levels for Friday, November 18th 11/18/2016 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 91 ? + 140 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2437; 1.2466/78; 1.2510; 1.2532 Closest support levels 1.2420; 1.2390; 1.2369; 1.2336 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2420, with target points at 1.2390 and 1.2369 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2437 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2466/78 and 1.2510 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 4 034 ? + 1 234 ? Closest resistance levels 110.51; 110.93; 111.21; 111.54 Closest support levels 109.67; 109.36; 109.02; 108.52 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 110.51, with the target points at 110.93 and 111.21 Alternative scenario Moving below 109.67 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 109.36 and 109.02 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11371 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 AUD/USD weekly outlook for Nov.21-25, 2016 11/18/2016 AUD/USD slumped to 0.7370 in the course this week following the sharp fall in iron ore prices and broader USD strength. Weak statistical data on the Australian wage growth and employment fell of the expectations contributing to the Aussie’s downfall. We see more AUD downside going forward on the back of the Fed’s rate hike in December, falling commodity prices and loosening RBA monetary policy. The nearest support lies at 0.7300. If commodity prices start rising again or the US statistical releases show some data distortions, Aussie may rise towards 0.7436, 0.7513 (200-day MA) resistance lines. Next week watch for the Australian existing home sales report and data on the inflation-adjusted value of the completed construction projects. US unemployment claims, revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectations can also add some changes to the AUD/USD technical chart. On Wednesday, traders will be watching the FOMC meeting minutes. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11373 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 AUD/CAD reached sell target 1.0000 11/18/2016 AUD/CAD reached sell target 1.0000 Next sell target – 0.9900 AUD/CAD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the parity (which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from August. The breakout of this support zone follows the earlier breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from June. AUD/CAD is expected to fall further in the accelerated minor corrective wave 2 toward the next sell target at the support level 0.9900. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 1.0000. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11374 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 NZD/JPY reached buy target 77.70 11/18/2016 NZD/JPY reached buy target 77.70 Next buy target - 79.00 NZD/JPY continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 5, which belongs to the intermediate ©-wave of the primary ABC correction ? from the end of June. The active wave 5 started earlier this month – when the pair reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing from the support area lying between the support level 76.30 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of impulse 3. Having recently reached the resistance level 77.70 (previous buy target) - NZD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at 79.00 (target price for the completion of the active ABC correction ?). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11375 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 US dollar: outlook for Nov. 21-25 11/18/2016 US dollar showed another week of strong gains versus its counterparts. US dollar index opened with a gap up above 99.00 and reached 101.40, the highest level since 2003. The currency is testing the upper edge of the broadening formation seen on the monthly and weekly charts. The probability of the Federal Reserve’s December rate hike now exceeds 90%. Spiking US Treasury yields are the main driver of the market’s expectations. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen added to the demand for American currency signaling that the US central bank is close to raising interest rates. So far traders are thinking about a month-long horizon and favor the greenback. Data released in the US so far were mostly positive: retail sales showed the strongest performance in 2 years, consumer prices recorded the biggest increase in 6 months and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to a 43-year low. Next week is unlikely to change the market’s perception much. The US will release existing home sales on Monday and durable goods orders on Wednesday. The market players will also watch the Fed’s November meeting minutes on Wednesday, although much has changed since the central bank discussed monetary policy at the beginning of the month. All in all, the market has pretty much found out what it wanted from Yellen’s comments. Liquidity will be lower on Thursday because the US will celebrate Thanksgiving Day. To sum up, we expect the greenback to remain supported, but warn you that as December rate hike is now almost fully priced it, the US currency will have less fuel to continue such rapid rally. Support is at 100.60, 100.00 and 99.00. Resistance is at 101.50, 102.00 and at the following big figures. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11376 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 EUR/USD: outlook for Nov. 21-25 11/18/2016 It was a week of freefall for the euro. EUR/USD opened with a gap down at 1.0830 and slumped to 1.0600. It’s the longest ever losing streak for the single currency. The euro is losing to the US dollar as the Federal Reserve is now widely expected to raise interest rates in December. The ECB president, Mario Draghi, on the contrary, hinted that the Eurozone stimulus will last. Annual inflation in the euro area accelerated from 0.4% in September to 0.5% in October, but Draghi underlined that it remains far below the ECB’s objective. The region’s GDP growth was 0.3% in the 3 months from July through September, the same level of growth as was recorded in the second quarter of the year. German economic growth slowed down a bit. Another negative factor for the euro is rising political risk given many votes, which are scheduled in Europe. Next week we will once again hear from Mario Draghi as he will testify about the European Central Bank's Annual Report before the European Parliament on Monday. The euro area’s flash manufacturing and services PMIs for November will be released on Wednesday, while German Ifo business climate will be published on Thursday. Let’s have a look at the weekly chart. EUR/USD has reached 2015-2016 support line in the 1.0600 area. The euro has approached multiyear minimums. Next support is at 1.0500 and 1.0460. Resistance is at the previous support levels of 1.0685, 1.0740, 1.0800 and 1.0850. Traders will likely keep selling the euro on its attempts to recover. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11377 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 USD/JPY: outlook for Nov. 21-25 11/18/2016 The accelerated march of USD/JPY to the north continued. The pair rose above 110.00 boosted by the stronger dollar and advance in Japanese stocks, which showed good gains after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. The Topix index rose to the highest level since April. Japan’s Q3 GDP figures were surprisingly strong as it added 0.5% vs. 0.2% q/q. The nation’s economy expanded for the third straight quarter as exports recovered. However, with Donald Trump as the US next president, this export-led recovery looks fragile. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda warned that “risks to both economic activity and prices are to the downside" and said that the BOJ is ready to ease policy again if the economy loses the momentum to hit his price goal. The fact that Japanese central bank is buying more of shorter-dated bonds is also having a negative impact on the yen. Next week Japan will release trade balance on Monday, flash manufacturing PMI on Thursday and inflation figures on Friday. USD/JPY is approaching 50% Fibo retracement of the decline since November 2015 at 111.35. The next resistance is at 112.00. At the same time, if the pair fails to close above 55-week MA at 110.00, it may correct down to 108.50 (200-week MA) because of its overbought condition. The next support is at 107.50. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11378 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Bulls lost control over the market 11/21/2016 On the daily chart of gold, a breakout of the lower boundary of the medium-term upward channel has become a signal of the change of the trend. At the present moment, "bears" remain control over the market. A test of the support at $1210 (50% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last mid-term "bullish" wave) can send quotes towards $1150 (target 127.2% in the "Perfect butterfly" pattern). On the hourly chart of gold, correction towards the lower boundary of the last upward trading channel and target 88.6% in the "Bat" inverted pattern can be used for opening short positions. Recommendations: SELL $1230 SL $1255 TP $1150. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11379 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 USD/JPY: bulls accelerate their pace 11/21/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, after the target on the previously formed longs was fulfilled, quotes continued their rally towards 112.5. There is 161.8% target in the "Crab" inverted pattern. At the present moment, "bulls" remain their control over the market. In such circumstances, it's better to use the strategy of buying on the pullbacks. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the "bulls" accelerate their pace. A breakout of the lower boundary of the short-term rising channel can send quotes towards108.9. There is 88.6% target in the "Shark" pattern. If it is fulfilled, you can open long positions. Recommendation: BUY 108,9 SL 108,35 TP 112,5. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11380 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Morning brief for November 21, 2016 11/21/2016 The US dollar extended its run of good luck against major currencies on speculation Trump economic policies might lead to faster monetary tightening. US Treasuries continue to rise. EUR/USD traded higher to 1.0610. Now the pair slid back from its morning high to 1.0580. Keep in focus the ECB president Mario Draghi’s testimony before the European Parliament scheduled for 18:00 (Metatrader time). Traders will be watching for some comments from the president on the ECB’s bond-buying plans (will it be extended or not?). USD/JPY traded below 111.2, its highest level since May. Aussie hit a 4.5-month low of 0.7315 hardly showing any sign of recovery, Upbeat Japan’s trade balance data passed unheeded. GBP/USD is trading around 1.2340 level, having started off weakening in the early hours. NZD/USD edged up to 0.7023 at the beginning of the Asian session, then it retreated under pressure from the strengthening dollar. USD/CAD moved down to circa 1.3463. The Canadian dollar ceased to follow oil prices as their recent rally didn’t put new heart into Canada’s national currency. Oil prices rose on growing expectations that OPEC will find a way to cut production. Russian President sees a high probability of oil production cut, as numerous contradictions within OPEC started to fade away. According to the latest news, most OPEC members prepared to offer Iran flexibility on tits production volumes. If not Draghi’s speech, this day would be lacking market drivers, as there are no significant statistical releases, important events scheduled for today. Some good news that can support the euro in the long run Former Prime Minister Francois Fillon in the center-right primary leads the race to take on Marine Le Pen’s anti-European platform. Fillon’s candidacy is more appealing to voters who want neither a Sarkozy comeback nor Juppe’s softer approach on the economy and social issues. Angela Merkel will seek a fourth term as German chancellor. Despite the disapproval of her immigration policy, the majority of the German population is ready to vote for her party in the upcoming parliamentary election, according to the recent opinion polls. The win of Fillon and Merkel is associated with stability in the euro zone. The rise to power of far-right parties can lead to significant changes in Europe. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11381 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Key option levels for Monday, November 21th 11/21/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 96 364 ? + 112 944 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0630; 1.0662; 1.0691; 1.0709 Closest support levels 1.0582; 1.0560; 1.0527; 1.0480 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0582, with target points at 1.0560 and 1.0527 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0630 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0662 and 1.0691 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 404 ? + 1 223 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2391; 1.2425; 1.2440/58; 1.2503 Closest support levels 1.2332; 1.2306; 1.2267; 1.2212 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2332, with target points at 1.2306 and 1.2267 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2391 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2425 and 1.2440/58 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest - 777 ? + 448 ? Closest resistance levels 111.14; 111.48; 111.71; 111.98 Closest support levels 110.51; 110.30; 110.00; 109.83 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short (?) USD/JPY below 110.51, with the target points at 110.30 and 110.00 Alternative scenario Moving above 111.14 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 111.48 and 111.71 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 333 ? + 234 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3521; 1.3554; 1.3587; 1.3633 Closest support levels 1.3448; 1.3421; 1.3387; 1.3340 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3448, with the target points at 1.3421 and 1.3387 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3521 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3554 and 1.3587 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11382 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 EUR/USD: bears going to test the next support 11/21/2016 Bears faced a support at 1.0600, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the next support at 1.0550 – 1.0522. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0636 – 1.0673. We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place between a support at 1.0561 and a resistance at 1.0636. If we see any bearish pattern later on, the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.0550 – 1.0522. However, if a pullback from these levels arrives, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11383 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 GBP/USD: broken "Triangle" 111/21/2016 The price faced a support at 1.2330, so we’ve got a local correction. At the same time, bears are likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2226 as a possible intraday target. The last “Triangle” has been broken, so the pair faced a support at 1.2330. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to decline towards the next support at 1.2253 during the day. If a pullback from this level be on the table, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.2399 – 1.2429. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11385 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Forecasts from banks for main currency pairs 11/21/2016 Banks rush to your aid! If you trust the opinion of high-profile currency specialists, this article will be useful for you. There are some trading recommendations for the upcoming week. Goldman Sachs The GS’s strategists admit that the greenback moved a lot, but in their view, the US currency has a room for even further appreciation. Justification: the possibility of fiscal stimulus raises upward pressure on inflation; Trump wants to make some reshuffling in the Fed to make it more hawkish. The market is pricing 64 basis points in the multiple tightening in 2017. Moreover, through end-2019 the market is pricing 130 basis points. The GS’s 12-month forecasts for EUR/USD – 1.00 and for USD/JPY – 115. Deutsche Bank A combination of economic and political risks can contribute to a further USD strengthening against the euro. In the short-term, there are some factors that can hold the Treasury yields at their present levels or even nudge them higher. Justification: 1. Brexit and Trump win contributed to the rise of global political risk. The next risk trigger may appear if Marin Le Pen wins the French presidential elections. 2. There are worries over the global negative output gap. The world still has a disinflationary bias, despite the worldwide spread of the protectionist sentiments. DB maintains short EUR/USD from 1.0750. Danske Danske expects USD/JPY to rise toward 115.50 due to the recent increase in the US Treasuries. There is a strong correlation between the weakening yen and rising 10-year bond yields, as investors tend to move their assets to the US from Japan. Morgan Stanley is heedful to advise this week. It suggests its outlook for all major currencies. USD MS maintains its USD bullish view. The Fed may lay aside its easing measures with upcoming fiscal stimulus from the US government. In addition, the rising US Treasuries support the greenback. EUR EUR/USD is mainly driven by the US dollar. The pair can move lower to 1.04 by the end of the year. The euro can remain strong on the crosses as the euro zone banks are not prone to increase foreign lending enough to compensate for the current account surplus. However, euro zone political elections can undermine the EUR strengthening, if far-right parties manage to come to power. GBP MS maintains its neutral outlook in relation to GBP/USD and notes that the pound has become vulnerable to any fluctuations in the bond yields. Traders will be watching the UK Autumn Statement this week. MS doesn’t expect lots of fiscal expansion from the UK government, but an additional rise in gilt issuance can spur yields faster than in the US offering support to the sterling. CAD Trump’s intention to renegotiate NAFTA sent CAD downwards. But the Canadian dollar is not as vulnerable as Mexican peso mainly due to the recently signed Canada-EU comprehensive economic and trade agreement. Thus, traders should watch for the actual implementation of trade policy and incoming Canadian data to unravel the further way of USD/CAD. For the present moment, MS remains its bullish view for this currency pair. AUD MS is bearish AUD/USD. Aussie weakened on the back of the USD strengthening and rising US Treasury yields. Rising metals prices, however, offered some support to AUD. China’s property sector is at risk of the growth slowdown in the nearest future, it may lead to the reduction of iron ore imports from Australia. Australian labor market deteriorated due to the slowing housing market and weak investments in the mining economic sector. All these factors weigh on the AUD’s attempts to growth. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11386 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 EUR/USD: "Engulfing" on the Moving Average 11/21/2016 There’s a “Doji” pattern, which has been confirmed enough, so the market is likely going to reach the 21 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got an “Engulfing”. If this pattern confirms, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction. The price formed an “Engulfing” pattern on the 34 Moving Average line. So, there’s an opportunity to see a local downward correction. At the same time, bulls could try to reach the 55 Moving Average afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11389 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 USD/JPY: "Tweezers" and "Tower" 11/21/2016 The price has been rising since a “Harami” was formed at the last low. Meanwhile, there’s an “Engulfing” at the local high. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an option to have another upward movement. We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Tower”, which both have been confirmed. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a downward correction. The main intraday target is the 34 Moving Average, which could act as a support. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11390 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Fibonacci Expansions 11/21/2016 In the last article, we’ve learned how to draw/use Fibonacci retracement. Today we will discover another effective technical tool – Fibonacci expansion. It may help you to identify exit levels, which will maximize your profit. We often face with some temporary deviations in trends (we call them pullbacks or retracements). Once they are exhausted, prices usually return to the primary trend and sometimes even break highs/lows. At this very moment, you can use Fibo expansion to maximize your profit gains. All in all, our recommendation is to watch for a higher low or a lower high to apply this instrument. It’s clear that you will be lucky to catch the trend at the very beginning to get the biggest gains. How to draw Fibonacci Expansion To plot Fibo Expansion correctly, you should select three price points which indicate: 1. The beginning of the primary move, you first high; 2. The end of this move (the low of the move traced from the first high); 3. And the retracement (the swing high, next point measured from the primary move low). Once you’ve plotted these points to the chart, three horizontal lines will appear corresponding to certain Fibo levels. Three horizontal lines identify your resistance/support levels which can be used for placing your profit targets. Voilà! That’s it, you’ve found your profitable setups, now you can earn lots of money. Beware of the “Fibo expansion addiction” that may appear after you earn some money with this technical tool. Once you add Fibo expansions on a few of your charts, you will prone to add them all the time, because they are really profitable. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11391 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 AUD/USD reversed from pivotal support level 0.7320 11/21/2016 AUD/USD reversed from pivotal support level 0.7320 Next buy target – 0.7440 AUD/USD continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 0.7320 (which reversed the previous waves (iv) and (ii) in June, as can be seen from the daily AUD/USD chart below). The support zone near the support level 0.7320 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. Given the fact that both the daily RSI and Stochastic indicators are in the oversold zone right now - AUD/USD can be expected to correct up from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7440 (former powerful support from September, acting as resistance after it was broken recently). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11392 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 NZD/USD reversed from support zone 11/21/2016 NZD/USD reversed from support zone Next buy target - 0.7150 NZD/USD today reversed up from the support zone lying between the strong multi-month support level 0.7000 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the middle of June, as can be seen from the daily NZD/USD chart below), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from May. Given the strength of the support level 0.7000 - NZD/USD can be expected to correct up further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7150. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the aforementioned support level 0.7000. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11393 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 EUR/USD: extension in wave [iii] 11/21/2016 There’s a bearish extension in wave [iii], which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The main intraday target is -2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). So, bears are likely going to deliver a new low shortly. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a correction in progress, which could be wave (iv). So, if the price finds a lodgement under -1/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish impulse in wave (v) of [iii]. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11394 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 EUR/GBP: technical and fundemantal analysis 11/21/2016 EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8580 level consolidating after significant downfall. If the euro manages to overcome 0.8636 (100-day MA) resistance, the prices might edge up towards 0.8778 (50-day MA, the lower boundary of Ichimoku cloud). The nearest supports are located at 0.8408 (50% Fibonacci retracement level from the June 24 low) and 0.8253 (200-day MA) near 61.7% Fibo retracement level. Fundamental analysis: In favor of the pound: According to the recent comments from ECB President Mario Draghi, the central bank will continue its ultra-loose policy. In contrast, the BOE senior officials are not going to introduce additional easing measures, as they expect increasing inflation rate. In the beginning of December, the Supreme Court will make its decision on whether or not the UK government should be able to activate Article 50 and begin the Brexit without Parliamentary procedure. Decision in favor of Parliament will be positive for the UK currency (because the process of Brexit will be delayed). On the 4th of December, there will an Italian referendum that might get the euro down, if voters say “no” to the constitutional changes. Against the pound: On Wednesday, we will receive the Autumn Statement from the UK government which should indicate the deterioration in British public finances. So, it might weaken the pound and send the EUR/GBP currency pair higher. If we get upbeat preliminary November PMIs for the Eurozone, wait for the euro strengthening on Wednesday (the releases will be published ahead of the US Autumn Statement). On Friday, watch for Q3 growth stats for Britain. It can weaken the pound significantly, if data falls short of expectations. We would rather be neutral on EUR/GBP in the short-term. On Wednesday, there might be some rebounds from present levels, if there are no deteriorations in the PMIs releases from Eurozone, and if the UK Autumn Statement does influence the pound. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11395 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 USD/CAD & Core Retail Sales for September: a rebound is coming in the Loonie? 11/22/2016 Today at 13:30 GMT we’ll have a key indicator from Canada, as the Core Retail Sales for September will be released and market’s analysts are expecting a positive data from 0.0% to 0.5%. From June, the data hasn’t been showing gains across the board and that’s why it could be a market mover in the CAD pairs. However, if we see a weak data or between the expected range, we won’t see strong volatility after the release. Our technical analysis for USD/CAD at H4 chart is showing a bullish channel developing and it could support further gains of the greenback against the Loonie. If we see a rebound, that should mean a weak core retail sales’ data, the pair may test the resistance level of 1.3465 and break it to reach the 1.3576 price zone. However, if the Loonie manages to consolidate below the 200 SMA, then it can test the 1.3276 level, which should happen with a better-than-expected data. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11396 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 AUD/USD: bears slackened opposition 11/22/2016 On the AUD/USD daily chart, after the target on the short positions has been fulfilled, quotes moved towards the support at 0.7304 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the medium-term downward wave). The "bears" failed to test it, however, they remain their control over the pair. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, "Deepwater Shark" pattern has been implemented. Its transformation into the model 5-0 can lead to the correction towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% from CD wave. There are resistance levels near these marks.Rollbacks should be used for the opening of short positions. Recommendations: SELL 0,749 SL 0,7555 TP 0,73 SELL 0,7545 SL 0,76 TP 0,73. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11397 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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