riki143 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Forex trading plan for Nov. 17 11/16/2016 According to the futures market, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s interest rates hike in December equals to 94%. The market is so sure as it expects Donald Trump’s spending plans to increase inflation, which in turn will create the need for higher rates in America. Traders will watch the speech of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen at 14:00 MT4 time on Thursday expecting her to confirm that the central bank is set to raise rates at December 16 meeting. There will be also speeches from FOMC members Dudley and Brainard. In addition, the United States will release a block of statistical data: building permits, CPI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, unemployment claims and housing starts at 12:30 MT4 time. US 10-year Treasury yields rose on Wednesday providing a boost for the greenback. During the US trading session, however, the US released weaker producer price figures (core PPI fell by 0.2% in October). This may provide a reason for the USD to correct a bit lower during the next sessions. EUR/USD went down for the 8th day in a row. The pair went below 78.6% Fibo of 2015-2016 advance at 1.0740. This level together with 1.0800 is now playing the role of resistance. Decline below the first weekly pivot support at 1.0686 will open the way down towards 1.0520. Euro area’s final consumer inflation for October is due at 09:00 MT4 time. The ECB will release the accounts of its monetary policy meeting. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11338 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 GBP/USD & UK Retail Sales for October: Will the bulls gain strength? 11/17/2016 Today at 09:30 GMT we’ll have the British version of Retail Sales for October, as the markets are waiting for an increase to 0.4% from 0.0% revised. Because of current GBP health, it will be interesting to see how was the consumer spending in the UK, which posted a weaker-than-expected number in September. Also, Brexit headlines continue to bring some volatility to the British Pound across the board. Our technical view for GBP/USD at H1 chart is still bearish, but the pair is struggling to consolidate again above the 500 SMA. If the data comes above the expectations, we can see a breakout higher of the 1.2484 level, in order to perform a rally towards the 1.2538 level. However, if the UK retail sales data is weak, one could expect a decline to test Tuesday’s lows. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11341 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 EUR/USD: "Hammer" points to local correction 11/17/2016 We've got a “High Wave” on the Daily chart, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. However, if a confirmation arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward correction. There’s an unconfirmed “Hammer” and a “Window”, which is still open. So, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver another low. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11342 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 USD/JPY: "Window" going to act as a resistance 11/17/2016 There’s a possible “Doji” at the local high, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to achieve the closest “Window”, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement. We’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Harami”, which both have a confirmation. Meanwhile, the upper “Window” is likely going to act as a resistance. If so, the market is likely going to reach the 21 Moving Average. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11343 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 EUR/USD: bears just can't stop 11/17/2016 The price faced a support at 1.0673, so we’ve got a local upward correction. However, bears are likely going to move on. In this case, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.0636 as a possible intraday target. Also, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction afterwards. It’s likely that a kind of a bearish pattern is developing on the one-hour chart. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve a support at 1.0636 shortly. If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0710 – 1.0744. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11344 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 GBP/USD: price going to reach nearest support 11/17/2016 The price is consolidating between the nearest resistance at 1.2556 and the Moving Averages. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.2330 in the short term. If a pullback from this line be on the table, bulls are likely going to deliver an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2621 – 1.2677. The previously broken uptrend is acting as a support. So, the price is likely going to achieve a support at 1.2399 – 1.2351 soon. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.2556 afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11345 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 NZD/USD: qiwi is testing the neckline 11/17/2016 On the NZD/USD daily chart, quotes went out from the upward trade channel and from the triangle. It is the first signal of a reversal of the trend. If the "bears" test the neckline of the "Head and shoulders" pattern, the quotes may fall towards 0.68. There is 127.2% target of the "Perfect butterfly" pattern. On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern has been fulfilled. It can be transformed into 5-0 pattern. Correction towards 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50% levels can be used for opening short positions. Recommendation: SELL 0,7176 SL 0,7231 TP 0,68. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11346 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 GBP/USD: pound saw a Shark 11/17/2016 On the GBP/USD daily chart, a break of support at 1.2365 can lead to the activation of the "Shark" pattern. Its target 88.6% is located at 1.2125. Resistance is located near the 1,248 mark. If it is tested successfully, the second shoulder of the "Head and shoulders" pattern will be formed. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, if quotes go out from the short-term upward trading channel and test the support at 1.2365, the prices fall down towards 1.2125. There is 88.6% target in the "Shark" pattern. Recommendation: SELL 1,2365 SL 1,242 TP 1,2125. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11347 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Morning brief for November 17, 2016 11/17/2016 USD/JPY spearheaded on Wednesday following the BOJ’s open market operation. The Bank committed itself to buy unlimited amounts of JGBs of specific maturities in September. Today we witnessed the first shot of the BOJ’s yield control policy that resulted in the immediate weakening in the yen. After the BOJ’s operation USD/JPY rolled back from 109.7 (its 5-month high) to 108.54. Now the pair is trading around the 109.00 mark. EUR/USD nudge up earlier this morning to 1.0711 after setting an 11-month low of 1.0666 overnight as US bond yields started to fall. Today’s focus will be on the bunch of statistical data coming from the US (building permits, monthly CPI, Core CPI, unemployment claims, manufacturing index) and on speeches of Fed’s senior officials (Fed’s Char Janet Yellen, Dudley, Brainard). While listening Ms. Yellen, pay attention to her comments on the market's election result reaction - including a rise in government bond yields; her views on potential economic effects of Trump's expansionary fiscal policies and assessment of the risk of a sharp rise in inflation rates. And, of course, we will be waiting for the confirmation of the Fed’s intention to raise interest rates in December. The possibility of the incoming Federal Reserve’s interest rates hike now is pricing at 94%. NZD/USD was a gainer of the last trading session. It reached 0.7106 having risen from its early low at 0.7033. AUD/USD is consolidating at 0.7480 level. Earlier today we had several data releases from Australia: there were a positive employment change and a lower unemployment rate. But we must admit that changes in figures were negligible, so they didn’t offer support to Aussie. USD/CAD slipped some points in the course of the session. The support line at 1.3416 (100-hour MA) braced the fall of prices. At the present moment, quotes are paving its way towards1,345o level located near the (50-hour MA). It seems that CAD didn’t pay heed to the oil prices drop overnight. Brent oil futures missed some points as soon as EIA report showed a significant build up in the US oil inventories. The data release outweighed hopes for a producers’ output cut following Russia’s comments about a possible meeting with Saudi Arabia. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11348 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 EUR/USD: waiting the correction 11/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0680/90; resistance – 1.0740, 1.0790. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0700; SL — 1.0680; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0790. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong support under 1.0700 and oversold market. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11349 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 GBP/USD: bullish trend may continue 11/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2420; resistance – 1.2520, 1.2610. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2610. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a support of the Cloud and Senkou Span B. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11350 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 USD/JPY: bulls are stopped by 110.00 11/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 108.70, 107.90; resistance – 109.30, 109.70. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 109.00; SL — 109.20; TP1 — 108.50; TP2 — 107.90. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Tenkan-sen and Senkou Span; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but there is an overbought market and a strong resistance levels. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11351 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Eurozone political risk calendar and EUR/USD forecasts 11/17/2016 EUR/USD was weakening for eight consecutive days following the US presidential election outcome. Many analysts believe that the euro will continue to move downwards with some reoccurring rebounds. There are several fundamental reasons for such forecast: widening the US – Eurozone interest rate differentials; an anticipation of Trump’s expansionary fiscal policies in par with a faster pace of Fed hikes; the ECB will favor the euro weakening until it becomes disorderly; troubled political circumstances in the euro area. Just look at the European political calendar. You will see that next year and the end of this year will be rather turbulent and grotty for the Eurozone. The pair rose today on the slowing pace of the US Treasuries yields. It could be viewed as a short-term correction. The overall sentiment for the euro is still “bearish”. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11352 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Key option levels for Thursday, November 17th 11/17/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 32 483 ? + 93 958 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0746; 1.0776; 1.0794; 1.0817 Closest support levels 1.0670; 1.0651; 1.0621; 1.0578 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0670, with target points at 1.0651 and 1.0621 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0746 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0776 and 1.0794 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 228 ? + 480 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2497; 1.2527; 1.2547; 1.2570 Closest support levels 1.2446; 1.2426/11; 1.2387; 1.2350 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2446, with target points at 1.2426/11 and 1.2387 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2497 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2527 and 1.2547 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 2 991 ? + 1 607 ? Closest resistance levels 109.34; 109.65; 109.99; 110.22 Closest support levels 108.79; 108.55; 108.14; 107.87 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 109.34, with the target points at 109.65 and 109.99 Alternative scenario Moving below 108.79 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 108.55 and 108.14 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 489 ? + 522 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3446; 1.3466; 1.3486; 1.3515 Closest support levels 1.3394; 1.3373; 1.3342; 1.3303 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short (?) USD/CAD below 1.3394, with the target points at 1.3373 and 1.3342 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3446 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3466 and 1.3486 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11355 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Review on Kathy Lien's book 11/17/2016 If you want to know Forex market from tip to toe you should read Kathy Lien’s book “Daily trading & swing trading the currency market”. There is something for everyone and any kind of trading emergencies. With every Lien’s chapter you become wiser because… The first chapter of the book will tell you everything about Bretton Woods financial system, George Soros, Asian financial crisis, the launch of the euro and Plaza Accord, so as you could flaunt your knowledge at some fancy cocktail dinner. The next chapter will unveil a secret of some high-profile market prophets so as you could forecast currency fluctuations by yourself. The third chapter will remind you of time differences so as you trade at right period of time to increase the profitability of your bets. In the subsequent chapters, Kathy Lien will teach you how to build your own trading plan and share some technical and fundamental strategies with you. The final chapter is perhaps the most valuable as it tells us about the unique characteristic of each major currency pair (what are the drivers of a certain currency pair, which economic releases should be watched to unravel its movement, when it can experience great fluctuations). So, if you want to know all these things, read “Day trading” book from cover to cover and become a real trading guru. DOWNLOAD THE BOOK More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11356 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 AUD/NZD under bearish pressure 11/17/2016 AUD/NZD falling inside the minor impulse wave Next sell target – 1.0470 AUD/NZD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the minor impulse wave 3 from the start of October. The active wave (iii) started when the pair reversed down from the resistance level 1.0660 (lower boundary of the strong resistance zone, which has been reversing the price from May). The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.0660 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. AUD/NZD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the key support level 1.0470 (which reversed the pair at the start of this month). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11357 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 AUD/USD falling inside minor corrective wave 2 11/17/2016 AUD/USD falling inside minor corrective wave 2 Next sell target - 0.7440 AUD/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor corrective wave 2 – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 0.7800 and 0.7730 (which resistance zone has been reversing the price from April). This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. AUD/USD is likely to fall to the next sell target at the strong support level 0.7440 (forecast price for the completion of the active minor correction 2 and the low of the previous wave (2) from September). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11358/AUDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Nov-17_1307_PM_(1_day).png[/iG] More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11358 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Fundamental analysis for GBP/USD 11/17/2016 GBP/USD rose mainly on the upbeat retail sales report released earlier today. As soon as the High Court announced its decision on the legality of “Brexit” traders warmed to sterling having stopped to sell it disorderly. Now the market awaits a decision of the Supreme Court to confirm their “bullish” sentiments towards GBP. Morgan Stanley believes that the “Brexit” process might be delayed as the UK government may need to pass the Great Repeal bill before triggering Article 50. It should take lots of time as the law-making process in the UK usually, proceed at snail’s pace. Next week traders will keep in focus the Autumn Statement. According to Financial Times, Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will have to admit the largest deterioration in British public finance since 2011. This may send the pound down. Some analysts, however, believe that the market’s reaction to the Autumn Statement should be limited, as it is already aware of the negative impact of “Brexit”. For example, BNP Paribas is still long GBP/USD targeting 1.2924. According to BNPP’s analysts, the pound has a room for the short-term appreciation with BoE maintaining its neutral monetary stance and with private sector’s anticipations of a higher inflation rate. But in the longer-term GBP/USD should fall again with the rising uncertainty over the US future and USD strengthening. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11359 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 EUR/USD: two "Flags" in a row 11/18/2016 There’s a “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.0600 – 1.0572. However, if we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.0673 – 1.0710. The price faced a support at 1.0616. At the same time, there’s a possible bearish pattern, so the pair is likely going to continue falling down towards the next support at 1.0600 – 1.0572. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.0673 – 1.0710. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11360 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 GBP/USD: bearish "Triangle" 11/18/2016 The price is consolidating between the nearest resistance at 1.2556 and the 55 Moving Average. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.2330 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an option to see a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.2556 – 1.2621. We’ve got a possible “Triangle” pattern here. So, the price is likely going to decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2399 – 1.2351. Meanwhile, there’s a chance to have an upward correction later on. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11361 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 EUR/USD: bears going to reach support line 11/18/2016 There’s a bearish trend on the Daily chart. Also, we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. However, there’s an opportunity to have a local upward correction, but bears will probably try to deliver a new low afterwards. We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern on the four-hours chart. Moreover, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. At the same time, if we see any bullish pattern, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11362 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 USD/JPY: "Window" acted as support 11/18/2016 We’ve got a “Doji” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet, so bulls are still here. In this case, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance soon. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an option to have a bearish correction. The last “Window” acted as a support. Also, we have a “High Wave” at the last low. So, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction. Meanwhile, bulls are likely going to deliver a new high afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11363 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 EUR/USD & Draghi Speech: Are we about to see a bottom in the Euro? 11/18/2016 Today at 08:00 GMT will speak the ECB’s president Mario Draghi from Frankfurt; the current location of the central bank’s offices. It should be interesting to see what will be the reaction from the ECB leader after CPI in the Eurozone and maybe we can hear something about Donald Trump’s victory as the new United States president. With that being said, Draghi’s speech could bring some volatility to the markets. Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at daily chart remains strongly bearish, as the pair already refreshed its lowest level in nearly one year. There is also a moving average crossover ongoing and eventually, the pair could plummet to test the support zone of 1.0561, which is a very strong barrier for sellers across the board. However, to the upside, if EUR/USD manages to break higher the 1.0641 level, then it can test the 1.0750 zone. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11364 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 USD/CHF: Crab will show the way to bulls 11/18/2016 On the USD/CHF daily chart, after target on the previously formed long was fulfilled, "bulls" faced with the convergence zone. If they manage to test the resistance at 1.009 (78,6% Fibo level from XA wave), the transformation of "Gartley" pattern to the "Crab" pattern will open the way towards 1,077 for them. On the USD/CHF hourly chart, correction in the direction of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel, the 23,6% level formed from the last "bullish" wave and target 88,6% in the "Shark" pattern should be used for the formation of long positions. Recommendation: BUY 0,994 SL 0,9875 TP1 1,017 TP2 1,077. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 USD/CAD: bulls continue their rally 11/18/2016 On the USD/CAD daily chart, after targets on the previously formed longs were fulfilled, "bulls" face with the resistance at 1.3572 (50% Fibo retracement level from the last long-term downward wave + target 161,8% in the "Crab" inverted pattern). A successful test of the bears' strongholds can lead to the continuation of the bulls' rally towards 1.369 and 1.384. On the USD/CAD hourly chart, "bulls" accelerate their pace. A breakout of resistance at 1,3575 will be a signal for opening long positions. Recommendation: BUY 1,3575 SL 1,352 TP1 1,369 TP2 1,384. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11366 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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