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USD/CAD: bears will be trying to consolidate their success

9/29/2016

 

On the USD/CAD daily chart, the "bulls" fulfilled targets which we had set in our last article and came closer to the very important level of 1.33. Quotes failed to go beyond the trade channel 1.298-1.33; this resulted in sales. Target of the red "Shark" pattern at 88.6% (1.286) has not yet fulfilled; it creates prerequisites for new attacks of "bears".

 

Screenshot_2016_09_29_08_20_08.png

 

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the quotes will continue to rise if the "bulls" manage to return them into the margins of the rising trading channel. Rebound from the resistance at 1.314 will be the signal for opening short positions.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_29_08_20_32.png

 

Recommendation: SELL 1.314 SL 1.3195 TP1 1.306 TP2 1.298 TP3 1.286. 

 

 CAD

 

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AUD/USD: Aussie stumbled aross the wedge

9/29/2016

 

On the AUD/USD daily chart, the rise towards 0.78 continues. There is a target 88.6% of the inverted pattern "Shark". Former resistance at 0.767 now serves as a key support. If the "bulls" manage to keep the quotes above this level, the chances of the further rise will increase significantly.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_29_08_25_34.png

 

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, formation of the expanding wedge pattern creates prerequisites for a correction. If the "bulls" fail to hold support at 0.767, the breach of 0.764 will increase the risk of the downfall towards 0.7585 and 0.755.?

 

Screenshot_2016_09_29_08_25_51.png

 

Recommendations:

BUY 0,767 SL 0,7615 TP 0,78

SELL 0,764 SL 0,7695 TP1 0,7585 TP2 0,755

 

 AUD

 

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EUR/USD: "Triple Bottom" led to consolidation

9/29/2016

 

29-9-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

There’s a downward consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The price faced a support at 1.1181, which led to the current bullish correction. At the same time, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.1198 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.1256, which is strengthened by the bearish trend.

 

29-9-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

We’ve got a consolidation, which is going up and down between the levels 1.1240 – 1.1180. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach a support at 1.1213 – 1.1196 in the short term. However, if bears be stopped here, bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.1256.

 

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GBP/USD: local support waiting for bears

9/29/2016

 

29-9-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

We’ve got a “Triple Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. The price faced a resistance at 1.3056, which led to form a “Thorn” pattern. So, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.2979 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.3089 – 1.3115 in the short term.

 

29-9-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

There’s a “V-Top” pattern, so bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.2995 – 1.2979 during the day. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from this area, then the price will have a free way to reach a resistance at 1.3030 – 1.3056.

 

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Key option levels for Thursday, September 29th

9/29/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(42).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 37 085 ? + 107 227 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.1257; 1.1282; 1.1302; 1.1330

Closest support levels 1.1225; 1.1203; 1.1172; 1.1134

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1225, with target points at 1.1203 and 1.1172

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1257 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1282 and 1.1302

 

GBP/USD

 

GBPUSD(41).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 422 ? + 341 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3074; 1.3104; 1.3127; 1.3155

Closest support levels 1.3019; 1.2989; 1.2967; 1.2940

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3019, with target points at 1.2989 and 1.2967

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3074 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3104 and 1.3127

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPY(39).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 1 552 ? + 734 ?

Closest resistance levels 101.73; 102.16; 102.62; 103.11

Closest support levels 100.29; 100.04; 99.81; 99.51

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.73, with the target points at 102.16 and 102.62

Alternative scenario Moving below 100.29 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.04 and  99.81

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(37).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 438 ? + 1 215 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3096; 1.3127; 1.3161; 1.3212

Closest support levels 1.3055; 1.3031; 1.2994; 1.2943

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3096, with the target points at 1.3127 and 1.3161

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3055 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3031 and 1.2994

 

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Beware of the Italian referendum

9/29/2016

 

The next wave of turbulences will be expected in December, as soon as Italians vote for or against the constitutional reform aiming to drastically curb the power of the Senate. Currently, both chambers have equal powers in the decision-making process. Under reform, however, the number of senators will be reduced significantly (from 314 directly elected to 95 indirectly elected by the regional councils); and the participation of the Senate in the law-making procedures will be drastically diminished.

 

The reform is supposed to make Italian more governable and more responsive to the bad occurrences in Italian economy.  A referendum is needed because the aforementioned reform failed to receive the necessary two-thirds endorsement from the parliament earlier this year.  Mateo Renzi, desperately seeking to propel it, even decided to step in front of a moving train and tied the results of the referendum to his own political career. In case of defeat, he will have to step down as Italian Prime Minister, opening up the possibility of new elections. This “Cameronlike” behavior makes this referendum even more special, earthshattering in a certain extent. Why it’s so?  Because the Renzi’s failure will heighten policy uncertainty and throw open the doors for the internet-based Five Star Movement, founded by a comedian, Beppe Grillo, and composed of political novices. In the unpracticed hands, the worst is yet to come for Italian economy and the Eurozone.

 

So far, what we can do with this information to offset the risk of “No” vote?

 

As one of the possible way out of the situation, we suggest hedging against a potential escalation of Italian risks by selling 10 year Italian bonds versus US Treasuries.

 

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EUR/USD: the trades return to SSB

9/29/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1210; resistance – 1.1230

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.1200; SL — 1.1220; TP1 — 1.1170; TP2 – 1.1130.

 

2. Buy — 1.1240; SL — 1.1220; TP1 — 1.1300; TP2 – 1.1330.

 

Reason: a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a narrow Ichimoku Cloud; strong resistance of SSB.

 

01-eurusdh4(44).png

 

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AUD/USD: the Bulls have a chance

9/29/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7660; resistance – 0.7700.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7660; SL — 0.7640; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7750.

 

Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and a rising Senkou Span A.

 

03-audusdh4(27).png

 

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USD/JPY: unexpected activation of the Bulls

9/29/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 101.20; resistance – 101.70, 102.10.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 101.20; SL — 101.00; TP1 — 101.70; TP2 — 102.10.

 

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud and the lines of Indicator have rising; the prices are in the Cloud; a new golden cross of Tenkan and Kijun.

 

04-usdjpyh4(33).png

 

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CAD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 76.00

9/29/2016

 

CAD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 76.00

Next buy target - 78.50

CAD/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the support area lying between the pivotal support level 76.00 (which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in June, as can be seen below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star (which marked the end of the previous impulse wave (iii)).

 

CAD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 78.50 (intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of September).

 

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USD/JPY reversed from support zone

9/29/2016

 

USD/JPY reversed from support zone

Next buy targets - 102.20 and 103.00

USD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the support zone lying between the powerful support level 100.00 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The support level 100.00 also previously reversed the earlier waves (B), (1) and B, as can be seen from the daily USD/JPY chart below.

 

Given the strength of the support level 100.00 and the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - USD/JPY can be expected to rise further toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 102.20 and 103.00

 

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OPEC’s decision: implications for oil

9/29/2016

 

OPEC members decided to cut production for the first time since 2008. The plan is to reduce output by 700K a day to 32.5-33M barrels a day. The measure is aimed to help oil prices stabilize and strengthen. The organization aims to reveal more details about the deal at its next policy meeting on November 30. The agreement was possible because Iran will be exempt from capping production – a concession made by Saudi Arabia.

 

At first the news may seem to be a game changer – the market was looking forward for a production freeze at best and got more than that – a cut. The deal marks a new stage of relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who were caught in hard economic and political confrontation during the past years. The market’s faith in OPEC will increase.

 

However, once you try to analyze the situation, you understand that there are still many challenges ahead. To begin with, OPEC nations have to choose how the cut will be allocated between members. This likely won’t be an easy process. In addition, OPEC will have to reach an agreement with non-OPEC oil producers – another difficult task.

 

As a result, many analysts are rather skeptical. Goldman Sachs says that new quotas could add $7-$10 a barrel to oil prices in the first half of 2017, if the accord is strictly implemented. At the same time, the bank sees serious risks that quotas will be exceeded: usually the group overshoots its objectives by almost 5%. If it happens again, quotas will become inefficient. In addition, Citigroup warns that higher oil prices will make US producers increase output, so the market will remain oversupplied. If that is the case, oil prices will stay under negative pressure. 

 

Brent oil opened with a gap up at 49.40, but then slid below 49.00. 

 

oil(1).png

 

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EUR/USD: bears going to test "Window" once again

9/29/2016

 

2909eurusdh4.png

 

There’s a consolidation on the Moving Averages, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Harami” patterns, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line, which could reverse the price movement into an upward direction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Engulfing” at the local high, but its confirmation is a quite weak. So, if the price gets a support on the 34 Moving Average, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally.

 

2909eurusdh1.png

 

The lower “Window” has been acted as a strong support, but we’ve got a “Harami” at the last high. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, it’s likely that bears going to test the “Window” once again in the short term.

 

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USD/JPY: support line waiting for bears

9/29/2016

 

2909usdjpyH4.png

 

There’s a support by the lower “Window”. Also, we’ve got an “Inverted Hammer”, a “Harami” and a “High Wave”, which all have been confirmed. Considering the last “Shooting Star”, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Harami” pattern, so the price is likely going to achieve the 21 Moving Average.

 

2909usdjpyH1.png

 

We’ve got a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, which both have a confirmation. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach the closest support level, which could reverse the price movement into a bullish direction.

 

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Earn more with Elder’s strategy

9/29/2016

 

Triple Screen Trading System

 

Beginners often look for a magic tool – a signal indicator that could help them to earn piles of money. If they get lucky for a while, they think that they’ve discovered the road to Eldorado. But, when the magic dies, and these amateurs start losing money, they give up on their old playfellow and start hunting for another goldmine. Well, I won’t discover America, if I tell you that it’s wrong. The markets are too complex to be analyzed with a single indicator. And, as soon as you read the latter sentence, you will probably say: “Well, ok, I tried to use different indicators, but they give me contradictory signals”. And you will be absolutely right; indicators like wrangling with each other and give traders false buy/sell signals.

 

To help you to grapple with this confusing situation, Alexander Elder, one of the brightest men of traders’ society, invented a so-called triple screen trading system. It combines the trend-following indicators with oscillators and filters out their disadvantages while preserving their strengths. Genius, told you!

 

Like a triple screen marker in medical science (before getting involved in financial trading, Elder worked as a psychiatrist, by the way), the triple screen trading system applies several unique tests, or screens, to every trading decision. Thereby it minimizes your risks and offers you more profits.

 

How does this system work?

 

First, you should decide which timeframe you want to trade. There are three main trends – long-term, intermediate and minor. Robert Rhea, the prominent market technician of the 1930s, compared these market trends to a tide, a wave, and a ripple accordingly. He believed that traders have to trade in the direction of the market tide (which could be identified on the first screen of a larger time frame), take advantage of the waves (which indicate intermediate changes in trading patterns) and keep an eye on the ripples (don’t ignore the minor trade signals displayed on the third screen).

 

For example, if you want to trade for several days, then your intermediate timeframe will be defined by the daily charts. Weekly charts will help you to determine long-lasting trends (tides), and hourly charts will shield you from minor fluctuations within the upward/downward trade channel.

 

First Screen

 

Once you defined your timeframes, you can plunge into unraveling the trade patterns. Start with analyzing the long-term chart to define the dominant trend with the help of trend-following indicators. Look at the slope of MACD-Histogram, when it is up – bulls control the market. And, conversely, when the slope is down, it shows that bears are in control which means that you should trade only from the short side. A single upswing or downswing of weekly MACD Histogram tells us about the change of the trend. The upturns that occur below the center line give better buy signals than those that lie above the centerline (because here we observe the very “birth” of the upward trend). The downturns which occurs above the centerline give better sell signal than the downturns below the centerline. Off course, you can use a simpler tool to identify the trend – an exponential moving average, for example. It’s up to you. 

 

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The Second Screen helps us to identify the waves that go against the tide (the weekly trend may go up, while the daily trend may decline and indicate buying opportunities, and vice versa). And here, on the second screen, oscillators come into play, they should be used to define these deviations from the weekly trend. Oscillators give buy signals when market decline and sell signals when market rise. And your task is to find only those daily signals that point in the direction of the dominant weekly trend.

 

For example, if the weekly trend is rising, you should take into consideration only buy signals from daily oscillators and ignore their sell signals. To do so you can use Force Index and the 2-day EMA oscillators. Stochastic oscillator also performs well. It gives trading signals when its line enters a buy or a sell zone. When weekly MACD rises, but daily Stochastic falls below 30, it identifies the oversold area (a buy signal). Alternatively, when the weekly MACD declines, but Stochastic rises above 70, it identifies an overbought area (a sell signal).

 

Third Screen

 

The third screen is used to identify so-called ripples which go against the dominant trend. It uses intraday price action to pinpoint entry points. The third screen doesn’t require any technical tools. It helps to enter the market once the first and second screens gave a signal to buy or sell short. It is a trailing technique used to warn when you should to stop buying in uptrends, or stop selling in downtrends.

 

For example, when the weekly trend is up and the daily trend is down, trailing buy-stops catch upside breakouts. When the weekly trend is down and the daily one is up, trailing sell-stops catch downside breakouts.

 

When the weekly trend is up and a daily oscillator declines, you’d better to activate a trailing buy-stop technique. Place a buy order one tick above the high of the previous day. If prices continue to rise, you will be automatically stopped when they reach the mark of the previous day’s high. If prices continue to fall, your buy-stop won’t be activated. The next day you should lower your order to the level one tick above the latest price candle. You should continue to do so every day until the weekly indicators shows another trend. The same tactics should be applied when the dominant trend is falling. The daily oscillator should go up, and then you activate a trailing sell-stop technique. You should place an order to sell short one tick below the latest candle’s low. If the market decides to change its direction, you will be protected from losses with the help of a trailing sell-stop technique. Change its location every day until the weekly trend changes its direction.

 

By using the Elder’s strategy described in this article, you will be well-protected from the risks of losing money (the risk of being deceived by the false trading signals) and, at the same time, you will be able to earn more (with help of indicators and oscillators you won’t miss your profits).   

 

007_14.png

 

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EUR/USD: "Double Zigzag" in wave E

9/29/2016

 

Image20160929165318001.png

 

Wave E of (Y) turned out to be a Double Zigzag, so wave [x] is likely going to be continued. If we see a pullback from 2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in wave [y] of E.

 

Image20160929165318002.png

 

There’s a zigzag in wave [x], which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Previously, wave (B) was ended under 4/8 MM Level, so bears are likely going to reach the main intraday target at 2/8 MM Level. 

 

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From gloomy medieval week back to Renaissance: positive news, finally!

9/29/2016

 

This week brought many positive news and cheered up traders tired of the relative bearishness of the markets. To begin with, Hillary Clinton won the first presidential debate against Donald Trump. Hillary is considered to be good for US stock markets, because she represents additional 4 years of Obama’s presidency which had a rather positive impact on the stock prices and corporate earnings.

 

Moreover, OPEC has finally agreed to freeze oil production for the first time in 8 years. This piece of news especially surprised traders who hadn’t expected such a positive turn of event, and the market’s risk sentiment considerably improved. Oil prices have risen significantly (by more than 5%) in New York after ministers announced that the group agreed to cut production to a range of 32.5 to 33 million barrels per day. In addition, according to the data released on Thursday, US economic growth in Q2 was revised to the upside from 1.1% to 1.4%.

 

The S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average on Wednesday and managed to recover from monthly drop of 2.1%. Analysts say that there are reasons to believe that stocks will keep rising. Firstly, the spread between dividends and 10-year Treasuries has risen, and there are no signs that they will go into negative territory. This positive tendency is extremely rare, if it continues, the demand for equities will increase significantly. Secondly, this time of a year is a rather favorable for stock markets. The fourth quarter has historically been up 80% of the time during the last 50 years, and 30 to 60 sessions post-elections the market has been up almost 63% of the time since 1928. That’s why we expect the S&P 500 to rise further, despite the fact that it has already reached its historical highs.  

 

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USD/CAD & Canadian GDP (July): A new wave of sellers coming?

9/30/2016

 

Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the Canadian GDP on a monthly basis for July, where the analysts are expecting to see a decrease to 0.3% from 0.6% (June). This reading could be a market mover, especially for the CAD pairs that were affected during the week due to OPEC meetings. During June, GDP had an expansion to 0.6%, which was a positive indicator, but it will be interesting to see the price action of an exhausted currency.

 

Our technical picture for USD/CAD at H4 chart is still showing a bullish bias, following the support found near 1.3051. Currently, it's facing the resistance zone of 1.3171, where a breakout higher can bring a momentum to the upside in order to test the 1.3236 level, which is above the 200 SMA. However, if data comes better than expected, then it could pullback to test the trend line that touches the lows from Thursday, around the 1.3051 level.

 

USDCADH1(2).png

 

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USD/JPY: will yen break the trend?

9/30/2016

 

On the USD/JPY daily chart, "bulls" still cannot consolidate their position above the important level of 101.35. If they succeed, it will increase the risks of breaking the upper limit of the long-term rising channel near the mark of 101.9. There is a risk that the pair will move further to 102.5 and 103.2.

 

Screenshot_2016_09_30_08_11_04.png

 

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, quotes almost reached the resistance line at 101.9. There is an upper limit of the downward trade channel and  50% Fibonacci level of XA wave of the "Bat" pattern. Successful test of the resistance line will create prerequisites for the continuation of the northward movement in the direction of 102.5, 103.2 and 103.5. 

 

Screenshot_2016_09_30_08_11_18.png

 

Recommendation: BUY 101,9 SL 101,35 TP1 103,2 TP2 103,5

 

 JPY

 

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GBP/USD: the bulls don’t want to lose

9/30/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2940/50; resistance – 1.3010.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.2970; SL — 1.2950; TP1 — 1.3010; TP2 — 1.3100.

 

Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines are horizontal; a strong support of 1.2950.

 

02-gbpusdh4(26).png

 

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EUR/USD: long period of consolidation

9/30/2016

 

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation near the important level of 1.1207. Breakout of the support at 1,118 will lead to the fall of quotes in the direction of the lower boundary of the rising trade channel. There is a 50% level of the wave XA. The "bears" will unlikely reach this level, therefore, we could try a rebound strategy. 

 

Screenshot_2016_09_30_08_06_15.png

 

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the "Head and shoulders" and the "Gartley" patterns have been formed. Breakout of the neckline near 1,118 will create prerequisites for the movements of the quotes in the direction of 1,1157. 

 

Screenshot_2016_09_30_08_06_29.png

 

Recommendation: BUY 1,116 SL 1,1105 TP1 1,1245 TP2 1,127. 

 

 EUR

 

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AUD/USD: on a Cloud’s support

9/30/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7620; resistance – 0.7660.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7620/30; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7750.

 

Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and a rising Senkou Span A; a strong support of the Cloud.

 

03-audusdh4(28).png

 

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EUR/USD: price wallow in consolidation

9/30/2016

 

30-9-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. It’s likely that the price is going to reach a support at 1.1196 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1256.

 

30-9-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

The price is moving up and down between the levels 1.1247 – 1.1196. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.1196 – 1.1190 during the day. However, if sellers be stopped here, then bulls will probably try to achieve the closest resistance at 1.1256 – 1.1258.

 

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Key option levels for Friday, September 30th

9/30/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(43).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 40 882 ↑ + 48 841 ↑

Closest resistance levels 1.1256; 1.1281; 1.1300; 1.1328

Closest support levels 1.1202; 1.1171; 1.1133; 1.1089

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1202, with target points at 1.1171 and 1.1133

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1256 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1281 and 1.1300

 

GBP/USD

 

GBPUSD(42).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 1 201 ↑ + 1 037 ↑

Closest resistance levels 1.2990; 1.3027; 1.3045; 1.3067

Closest support levels 1.2967; 1.2941; 1.2920; 1.2892

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2967, with target points at 1.2941 and 1.2920

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2990 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3027 and 1.3045

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPY(40).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 1 626 ↑ + 2 175 ↑

Closest resistance levels 101.13; 101.31; 101.54; 101.85

Closest support levels 100.75; 100.56; 100.23; 99.96

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.13, with the target points at 101.31 and 101.54

Alternative scenario Moving below 100.75 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.56 and  100.23

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(38).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 827 ↑ + 57 ↑

Closest resistance levels 1.3165; 1.3191; 1.3231; 1.3287

Closest support levels 1.3116; 1.3098; 1.3067; 1.3021

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3165, with the target points at 1.3191 and 1.3231

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3116 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3098 and 1.3067

 

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GBP/USD: bears going to test uptrend line

9/30/2016

 

30-9-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The price faced a resistance at 1.3056, which led to form a “Thorn” pattern. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support by the uptrend line. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance by the 34 Moving Average.

 

30-9-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.2935 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to achieve the next resistance at 1.3010.

 

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