KostiaForexMart

The main events by the morning: January 8 Trump has published a map of the United States with Canada, causing a political outcry. The ex-president continues to provoke the Canadian authorities and the opposition by announcing his plans for the country's accession to the United States. Not only Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is strongly opposed, but also the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Pouillevre, who promised to prevent the implementation of such initiatives if he won the election. The Russian stock market expects to recover in 2025. Analysts predict an increase in the Moscow Exchange index to 3300-3700 points if geopolitical risks decrease, the key interest rate decreases and high dividends remain. After a weak 2024, investors are counting on improved financial performance. The yuan fell to a minimum amid fears of Trump's sanctions. The yuan exchange rate reached 7.35 per dollar, the highest since September 2023. Markets are afraid of new duties that could force the People's Bank of China to weaken the national currency. On the Moscow Stock Exchange, the yuan also fell to 13.59 rubles (minus 3 kopecks per day). The Contact Group for Ukraine will approve the plan until 2027. At a meeting in Ramstein on January 9, NATO will coordinate Ukraine's long-term military needs, allocating responsibility for supplies in eight key areas, including air defense, armored vehicles and drones. The United States is likely to announce the final aid package under Joe Biden's presidency. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: December 27 The net profit of Russian banks in 2025 may amount to 3.6-4.1 trillion rubles. ACRA estimates that the financial performance of credit institutions will be pressured by rising operating costs and a possible increase in credit risks. Banks' margins will continue to decline, but continued demand for loans will help the sector withstand a difficult year for monetary policy. European countries continue to avoid strict compliance with anti-Russian sanctions. According to the NYT, in addition to European countries wishing to use Russian resources, India and the Persian Gulf countries have significantly increased imports of Russian oil, bringing the figures to record levels. At the same time, the EU's plans to increase arms production remain unfulfilled. Elon Musk warned of possible bankruptcy of the United States if the problem of public debt is not solved. He proposed to create a new department to improve management efficiency and reduce bureaucracy, stating that he was ready to lead it. «Either we will solve this problem, or we will be on the verge of bankruptcy,» Musk wrote in his X account. There is growing dissatisfaction in Germany with the sanctions against Russia, China and Iran. According to a study by Stoppt die Sanctionen, the fatigue index from sanctions measures reached 9 out of 10 possible points, which indicates serious concern among citizens. The dollar's share in global reserves has fallen to its lowest level in 30 years. In the third quarter of 2025, it decreased by 0.85 percentage points, to 57.4%, which was the lowest since 1995. The main reason for the reduction is the increase in investments in euros, which increased to 20.02% compared to 19.75% in the second quarter. Investments in the Japanese yen and non-foreign currencies also increased, with shares of 5.82% and 4.46%, respectively. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Will the Bank of Japan Intervene? Recent media reports have raised concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan due to a significant weakening of the national currency, which has declined by approximately 13% since October. Many banks and investment firms view this as a likely scenario ahead of the Japanese central bank's meeting in January. Let's analyze this situation using technical analysis to find an answer. On the daily chart, we apply three Fibonacci time zones: The first zone from the July peak (brown color). The second zone from the September low (blue color). The third zone from the December 3rd low (green color). We identified a point where three timelines from different zones converge around January 12–13: the 11th line of the brown grid, the 10th line of the blue grid, and the 8th line of the green grid. However, since the chart does not account for future weekends—including the New Year holiday—the adjusted date is closer to January 21–22, coinciding with the BOJ meeting scheduled for January 23–24. It seems that following this meeting, a long-term strengthening of the yen may begin, potentially breaking below the December low and dipping beneath the lower boundary of the ascending pink price channel. In this context, the prospect of intervention becomes less significant, as the USD/JPY pair could decline due to an interest rate hike. There is still a month until the central bank meeting. During this time, a local decline in the currency pair is possible, potentially approaching either the red line of the descending channel or the pink line of the ascending channel. A short-term rise to the 158.70 level may follow, which could ultimately form a triangular (flag-like) pattern. Alternatively, a different chart pattern might emerge if the price fails to break above the upper boundary of the descending price channel (a descending flag). More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Oil Compresses the Spring: Awaiting an Explosion! The upper levels can't, and the lower levels won't? Speculators have increased their oil purchases at the fastest pace since September 2023, driven by expectations that new sanctions against Russia and Iran will tighten supply, while China's stimulus measures will boost demand. However, Brent crude oil prices remain stubbornly stagnant, neither rising nor dropping significantly. Is a revolutionary situation brewing in the oil market? If so, any breakout from the current medium-term range may have to wait until 2025. After all, Christmas is typically a time to pause business activities. Dynamics of Speculative Positions in Oil U.S. President Joe Biden signed a government funding bill that extends through March 2025, which has brought joy to financial markets. A slowdown in the U.S. economy caused by a government shutdown would have been detrimental to investors. Currently, the U.S. is a key driver of global GDP growth and oil demand. Bloomberg experts project a decrease of 2 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending December 20, which is likely to support Brent and WTI oil prices. However, China, India, and other Asian countries are expected to be the primary contributors to global oil demand growth in 2025, accounting for approximately 60% of the increase. OPEC forecasts an increase of 1.45 million barrels per day (b/d), while the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates it at 1.08 million b/d. Global Oil Demand Structure However, the reality may not be as optimistic. The U.S.-China trade war is likely to slow down the Chinese economy. In 2023, China accounted for 16% of global oil demand, equivalent to 16.4 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase from just 9% in 2008. However, the country's strong demand for electric vehicles and its ongoing real estate crisis are reducing its appetite for oil. Gasoline and diesel fuel demand is believed to have peaked and is projected to be 3.6% lower in 2024 than it was in 2021. U.S. tariffs on imports from China are causing concern in the oil market. For example, Donald Trump's statement that the European Union could face tariffs if it doesn't increase purchases of U.S. oil and gas diminished bullish momentum for Brent crude. Consequently, the price of this North Sea grade quickly returned to consolidation, and its price movement now resembles a spring that is being compressed. The question remains: when will it explode? Oil concludes 2024 with mixed sentiments. Optimists expect to see growth in global demand, particularly from Asia and the U.S. In contrast, pessimists warn that non-OPEC+ countries may inundate the market with new supplies, potentially leading to a decrease in prices. From a technical perspective, a triangle pattern continues to form on the daily Brent chart. A breakout above the upper boundary near $74 per barrel could create opportunities for long positions. On the other hand, a decisive breach of the $72 support level would suggest the potential for selling. An aggressive short entry might be considered if the price successfully tests the fair value at $72.45. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Dollar Extinguishes All Candles The brief rally for the EUR/USD currency pair didn't last long. A slowdown in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—an inflation gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve—to 0.1% month-over-month in November, along with statements from FOMC officials indicating that monetary easing would continue into 2025, seemed to trigger a corrective response for the main currency pair. However, comments from Donald Trump on social media and emerging vulnerabilities in the euro brought the situation back to square one. The president-elect of the United States does not intend to spare anyone. He initially focused on Mexico, Canada, and China. Then, he turned his attention to BRICS countries. However, he didn't stop there; he announced that if the European Union did not increase its purchases of oil and gas from the U.S., he would impose tariffs on European imports. This decision put additional pressure on the euro, as such tariffs could further slow down an already fragile European economy. Recent forecasts from Bloomberg experts indicate that the eurozone's GDP is expected to grow by 1% in 2025, a decrease from the previously anticipated 1.2%. In 2026, growth is projected to be 1.2%, lower than the earlier estimate of 1.4%. These revised estimates are below the European Central Bank's projections, which further emphasize the vulnerability of the euro area. Eurozone Economic Trends and Forecasts Germany, once considered the growth engine of Europe, is now causing further economic decline. Analysts forecast that its economy will expand by only 0.4% next year, followed by a 1% growth the year after that. In contrast, the U.S. economy appears to be performing well. The Atlanta Fed's leading indicator suggests a GDP growth of 3.1% in the fourth quarter. Futures markets show a 91% probability that the Fed will pause its monetary easing cycle in January. Meanwhile, the ECB intends to continue reducing interest rates. Christine Lagarde has stated that the ECB is approaching the point where it can assert that inflation has been brought down to the target level of 2%. If this is the case, there would be little reason to maintain high borrowing costs. The increasing interest rate differential favoring the U.S. could lead to a further decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate. Hedge funds and asset managers are increasingly adopting net long positions on the dollar, reaching their highest levels since May. According to HSBC, the dollar is "hitting all the right notes" and shows no signs of weakening in 2025. Additionally, Wells Fargo suggests that Trump's political agenda, including tariffs, will further boost the USD index rally. Speculative Positions in the U.S. Dollar It is highly likely that the U.S. dollar will break tradition and end December in a positive position. This month is typically considered seasonally weak for the American currency, which usually declines at year-end. However, every rule has its exceptions. In the daily chart, another attempt by EUR/USD bulls to launch a counterattack has ended in failure, further demonstrating their weakness. The recent retracement offers an opportunity to open or expand previously established short positions, targeting levels of 1.012 and 1.000. Sticking to the current strategy of selling on pullbacks remains the most logical course of action. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Changes to the Christmas and New Year trading schedule Dear traders, We’d like to congratulate you with the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays and inform you about changes to the trading schedule those days. Please refer to the table attached on the site to see all the changes and plan your activities accordingly. https://bit.ly/4iOkaJQ

Inflation falls to 2.4%: Markets respond with gains, but week remains a loss US stocks rally after weak trading After two straight losing sessions, US stocks ended the week on a positive note, as encouraging inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials eased investor concerns about future interest rate moves. Inflation is slowing: Key data The published Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) index, one of the main indicators of inflation, showed an increase of 2.4% year-on-year in November. This figure was slightly lower than economists' forecast of 2.5%. This result strengthened hopes that inflationary pressures continue to subside despite the resilience of the economy. Consumers continue to spend Consumer spending data showed an increase in November, which was further evidence of the resilience of the US economy. This fact, despite subdued inflation, supports confidence that demand remains stable. Rate expectations are shifting The publication of fresh data led to a change in market sentiment. Now traders are forecasting the first cut in the Fed's key rate in March 2025, and the second in October of the same year. Previously, the probability of a second cut before the end of 2025 was estimated at only 50%. At the same time, on Wednesday, the Fed announced a third rate cut this year. However, according to the updated economic forecasts (SEP), the Fed expects only two rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2025, instead of the four announced earlier in September. This more conservative approach reflects the continued resilience of the economy and the difficult situation with inflation. Market reaction: sell-offs and recovery The Fed's announcement triggered a wave of selling on Wednesday evening, from which the market was unable to recover even on Thursday. However, Friday's rally partially offset the losses. Despite this, the main US stock indexes - the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq - showed an overall decline for the week. The role of fiscal policy Uncertainty about fiscal policy, including the possible impact of tariffs, also received attention from Fed officials. Some of them acknowledged that they have begun to factor these risks into their forecasts. Such an approach may influence the regulator's further actions, adding another factor to the equation of economic stability. Market Correction: Experts Say "It's pretty obvious what's happening — it's just that this PCE plus the dovish comments from the Fed have offset the market's overreaction to the hawkish cut that everyone was expecting," said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors in New York. He added: "We've seen this about 10 times during this Fed cycle. The market just always overreacts to one side or the other." Key Indexes Are Gaining The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 498.82 points, or 1.18%, to 42,841.06. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 63.82 points, or 1.09%, to 5,930.90. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 199.83 points, or 1.03%, to close at 19,572.60. The Dow and S&P both saw their biggest gains in a single day since Nov. 6. A Week of Controversy However, all three major indexes ended the week lower overall. The S&P 500 lost 1.99%, the Nasdaq lost 1.78%, and the Dow fell 2.25%. The Nasdaq ended a four-week winning streak, while the S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly loss in six weeks. The Dow also fell for a third straight week. Sectors on the Rise Despite the weekly decline, all 11 major S&P sectors posted gains on Friday. Real estate (.SPLRCR) led the way, rising 1.8% as Treasury yields fell. The broad rally showed investors are willing to return to active buying despite recent wobbles. Small-caps: New prospects Small-cap stocks tracked by the Russell 2000 (.RUT) rose 0.9%. These assets often benefit from a lower interest rate environment, making them an attractive choice for investors in the current environment. Congress Averts Crisis Investors were closely watching developments in the U.S. Congress on Friday, which took steps to prevent a partial federal government shutdown. House Republican leaders said they would vote to keep the government open, adding stability to the market. Broad Gains in Stocks Advance stocks outnumbered decliners 2.84-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, while the Nasdaq outnumbered decliners 2.12-to-1. The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 23 new lows, while the Nasdaq posted 51 new highs and 233 new lows. Triple Witchcraft and Volume Boost Friday's session was made special by the simultaneous expiration of quarterly equity, index option, and futures derivatives contracts, known as the "triple witchcraft." This event significantly boosted trading volume, which totaled 21.58 billion shares, well above the 14.87 billion average over the past 20 trading days. December's Challenges: Looking Ahead December has so far disappointed investors, turning out to be one of the most challenging months for the market in an otherwise strong 2024. The S&P 500 has gained 24% year-to-date, but continues to struggle. Traditionally, the last five trading days of December and the first two days of January, known as the "Santa Claus Rally," average gains of 1.3%. However, this year could see a departure from that trend. Fed Disappointment, Sectors in the Red The S&P 500 suffered its biggest daily drop since August on Wednesday after the Fed disappointed investors by offering a less aggressive rate cut for 2025. There are also problems beneath the surface, with eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors in the red in December and the S&P 500 down 7%. Rising Bond Yields and Overvalued Stocks Another source of tension in the market is rising Treasury yields. The 10-year yield rose to 4.55%, the highest in six months. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said the rise is putting pressure on stocks, especially with the S&P 500 trading at 21.6 times projected earnings, well above the historical average of 15.8. Santa Claus Rally: Hopes and Reality The Santa Claus Rally period, which covers the last five trading days of the year and the first two Januarys, traditionally brings gains to the market. Historical data shows that 90% of such periods have predicted a positive outcome for the year. However, in 2024, experts like Carlson suggest that the main gains have already occurred in November, when the market gained 5.7% amid political events. Market Narrowing: A Warning Sign A narrowing rally, with fewer stocks gaining, is also a cause for concern. It could mean the market is becoming less resilient, which in turn dampens investors' holiday spirits. Tech Giants Show Strength Some mega-cap companies continue to delight investors. Tesla (TSLA.O) and Alphabet (GOOGL.O) have shown impressive results, rising 22% and more than 13%, respectively, in December. Broadcom (AVGO.O) was another winner, with shares soaring 36% on expected strong demand for its AI chips, pushing the company's market value above $1 trillion. Trouble Below the Surface But such gains are becoming increasingly rare. The number of S&P 500 stocks that are falling has outnumbered those that are advancing for 13 straight sessions, the longest losing streak since 2012. In addition, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages has fallen to 56%, the lowest in a year, according to data from Adam Turnquist of LPL Financial. Analysts Take a Cautious Approach "We recommend waiting for support to establish and momentum to improve before intensifying dip-buying," Turnquist wrote in a research note issued after a significant sell-off in the market on Wednesday. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: December 20 There is a new crisis in the United States: the government is on the verge of a shutdown due to the failure of the funding bill. Republicans proposed a document that was supported by only 174 members of the House of Representatives, while 235 opposed it. If the bill had been approved, the federal government would have received funds to work until March 2025, and the debt ceiling would have been suspended until January 2027. The International Monetary Fund believes that the Russian economy is growing due to the rapid growth of wages. The Director of Communications of the foundation noted that the growth of the Russian economy is due to strong private consumption, supported by a tough labor market and rapid wage growth. Corporate investments also play an important role. Sanctions against Russia have led to an increase in business tourism. Already, almost 20% of business trips are to foreign destinations, the leaders among which are China and the UAE. Next year, the number of business trips may increase by another 15-20%. This is due to the desire of businesses to explore new areas for doing business within the Russian Federation or in friendly countries. Donald Trump has threatened the EU countries that they must fill the trade deficit with the United States through purchases of oil and gas. Otherwise, the United States will impose widespread tariffs. Bitcoin fell below $95,000 after the decision of the US Federal Reserve System to put the key rate cut on pause. The Fed also raised its inflation forecast for next year. Experts believe that the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, may become a new villain for the crypto industry, replacing the head of the SEC, Gensler. Thailand is considering the possibility of legalizing bitcoin as a means of payment. The country's finance minister proposed starting an experiment in tourist regions such as Phuket and Hua Hin, where it would be possible to allow the use of cryptocurrency in restaurants, cafes and shops. This will simplify the lives of tourists who will be able to pay with digital assets without having to look for currency exchange offices. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

EUR/USD: Powell arranges sell-off. EUR plunges to 2-year low. Parity on horizon? The EUR/USD pair plunged to 1.0351 with a single-session fall of 1.32%. The instrument recorded its lowest close in two years. This slump was triggered by unexpectedly hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, which made it clear that no rate cuts are anticipated in January. According to the updated FOMC forecasts, only two rate cuts are expected in 2025, significantly fewer than previous estimates. This adjustment in expectations led investors to reassess their positions. As a result, this entailed a sharp drop in stock indices, a rise in US Treasury yields, and, consequently, a strengthening of the dollar. Despite being just six days before Christmas, markets faced another unpleasant surprise. Under the influence of the Fed's hawkish statement, the S&P 500 index tumbled by 2.95%, marking its steepest post-meeting decline since 2001. The reaction also extended to the debt market. Higher yields on US Treasuries compared to other countries provide investors with an additional incentive to invest in the US. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bills jumped by 11.5 basis points, surpassing 4.5% for the first time since May. In comparison, the yield on 10-year German bonds is only about 2.29%. According to strategists, the Fed's intention to moderate the pace of rate cuts is bearish for the US dollar due to the widening short-term interest rate differentials with the eurozone. Analysts are closely monitoring changes in the FOMC's dot plots, which reflect individual committee members' expectations for future interest rates. The latest snapshot indicates a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in 2025 (two steps of 25 bps each), twice lower than the 100 bps forecasted in September and below the 75 bps expected by market consensus before the update was released. The revised forecasts reinforced the outlook for a higher funds rate, with the long-term median dot now projected at 3.0%. This suggests that the current rate-cutting cycle will end at a higher level than previously anticipated. At the same time, economic forecasts were revised upwards: the annual inflation rate for 2025 is now expected at 2.5%, up from the earlier estimated 2.1% increase. Most FOMC members believe core inflation will continue to decline in 2025. Jerome Powell noted that the latest rate cut was a difficult decision and confirmed the Fed's intention to slow the pace of monetary policy easing. He emphasized that before any further rate cuts, the central bank expects clearer progress in reducing inflationary pressures and will not tolerate inflation persistently above the 2% target. As a result, markets are revising their expectations, preparing for a prolonged pause in the Fed's easing cycle. This scenario could keep the US dollar elevated through 2025, further pressuring the euro. Could parity be on the horizon? Temporary rebound in EUR/USD During Thursday's European session, the EUR/USD pair managed to climb back above the 1.0400 level, as the bullish momentum of the US dollar slightly weakened following Wednesday's sharp rally. However, fundamental signals still do not provide a basis for a shift in the overall negative trend. Both short-term and long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) reveal the bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) broke below the lower border of the bearish range at 20.00 to 40.00, signaling the formation of a new downtrend. From a technical viewpoint, the key support level for the EUR/USD pair could be 1.0200, provided it breaks below the two-year low at 1.0330. In the case of an upward correction, the nearest significant obstacle for bulls would be around the 1.0500 zone, where the 20-day EMA is recognized. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: December 18 Gazprom's shares have collapsed to their lowest level since 2009. Gazprom's securities continued to fall for the fourth day in a row, reaching 107 rubles per share. This is a record low for the last 14 years. The main reason was the EU's rejection of interest in the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine and the transition to alternative energy sources, which caused a negative reaction from European gas companies. Elon Musk is under the gun of the US authorities. SpaceX and its founder Elon Musk have been under scrutiny by the American authorities. According to The New York Times, Musk is suspected of possible violations related to the secrecy of state secrets. Silver will be the main asset of 2025. Experts at Heraeus Precious Metals predict an increase in the value of silver on the global market in the range of $28 to $40 per troy ounce in 2025. Silver is expected to rise in price faster than gold, which makes it a promising investment asset. The cost of bitcoin has updated another historical high, exceeding $ 108 thousand. Crypto investors continue to buy, expecting that the newly elected US President Donald Trump will create more favorable conditions for the crypto industry and include bitcoin in the US strategic reserve. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol ignores the investigation. He did not appear for questioning at the Office of Anti-Corruption Investigations in the case of the rebellion. Yeltsin's powers were suspended as a result of impeachment in parliament. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: December 17 The European Union has imposed the 15th package of sanctions against Russia. The construction giant PIK and the airline UTair, as well as the head of Avtodor Vyacheslav Petushenko, were subject to restrictions. The sanctions affected 52 tankers carrying Russian oil, top managers of fuel and energy sector companies and heads of Gazprom subsidiaries: Gazprom Fleet, Gazstroyprom and Gazprom LNG Technologies. The Moscow Stock Exchange index fell to a one-year low, reaching 2,395 points. The market is reacting negatively to the speeches of the president and the Minister of Defense, new sanctions and the expectation of a decision on the key rate. Rostelecom's shares have fallen to the lowest value since 2022 – 50 rubles. The collapse of MTS Bank continues, whose securities have lost 60% since the IPO. The largest drop was demonstrated by «Samolet» – since the beginning of the year, the company's shares have depreciated by 79%, falling from 3,851 to 845 rubles per paper. Donald Trump has announced plans to impose or increase tariffs against a number of countries. At a press conference at the Mar-a-Lago estate, the president-elect stressed that the United States will be guided by the principle of reciprocity: if a trading partner imposes duties on American goods, the United States will impose similar measures in response. The list of countries potentially subject to new duties may include Brazil, India and China. US Senator Bernie Sanders criticized the US defense budget, which reached almost $900 billion. According to him, inflated defense spending limits funding for health and social care programs. Sanders also spoke about large-scale fraudulent schemes at the Pentagon, where defense companies overestimate the value of contracts by 40%. South Korea has imposed sanctions against 7 individuals and 13 organizations from Russia. The reason was the accusation of illegal military cooperation with the DPRK. In total, 11 people and 15 organizations were included in the list, including two generals of the Korean People's Army, a rocket engineer and one officer. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

EUR/USD Weekly Preview: CPI, PPI, ECB In two weeks, the currency market will de facto go on a Christmas/New Year vacation, which will not end until early January. But before leaving, traders will "slam the door loudly," reacting to the key events of December. The upcoming week is packed with significant events for the EUR/USD pair. Key November inflation data will be released in the US, and the European Central Bank will hold its final meeting of the year in Frankfurt. Monday-Tuesday On Monday, traders will focus on China's November inflation report. With an otherwise empty economic calendar, this release could significantly influence USD pairs, but only if the results deviate from forecasts. In October, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 0.3% (forecast: 0.4%). The indicator shows a downward trend for the second month, reflecting weakening consumer demand. November's CPI is expected to rebound to 0.4%. If inflation unexpectedly slows further, the USD might gain indirect support due to heightened risk-off sentiment. Wholesale inventory data will be published later during the US session, though it's a secondary macroeconomic indicator unlikely to significantly impact EUR/USD. On Tuesday, the US will release the labor cost index, measuring the annual change in employer expenses per employee (this considers not only salary deductions but also taxes and payments to other funds). This lagging indicator could influence the USD only if it diverges significantly from expectations. The index is forecasted to decrease to 1.3% in Q3, following drops to 1.9% in Q2 and 2.4% in Q1. Wednesday Wednesday brings the week's most crucial macroeconomic report: the November US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Given recent Federal Reserve statements, this report could determine the outcome of the Fed's January meeting and possibly the December one. For instance, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has indicated support for pausing the easing cycle if the data contradict forecasts of slowing inflation—that is, if the CPI and PPI accelerate again. At the same time, Waller spoke about the pause not hypothetically but in the context of the December meeting. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that rate hikes might resume if inflation accelerates. For the most part, the rest of the members of the U.S. central bank called for a slowdown in the pace of policy easing but did not rule out "other scenarios." Among them is Jerome Powell, who has also recently toughened his rhetoric. In other words, the CPI is significant in current circumstances. According to forecasts, Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% YoY (up from 2.6% in October). If realized, it could signal a reversal in the six-month downward trend seen through September. In October, the Headline CPI unexpectedly increased, and if it comes out at least at the forecast level (not to mention the "green zone") in November, then we can already talk about a certain trend, which will not please the Fed representatives. The Core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% YoY. The indicator was at the same level in October and September. The stagnation of the core CPI adds to Fed concerns amid rising overall inflation. Thursday Thursday is another critical day for EUR/USD, with the ECB's final meeting of the year taking center stage during the European session. The base-case scenario suggests a 25-basis-point rate cut. Additionally, the ECB will release its quarterly projections on rates and macroeconomic indicators. After the latest data on the growth of the European economy and inflation in the eurozone, the 50-point scenario is not even hypothetically considered. Therefore, reducing the rate by 25 points will not substantially impact the euro and, consequently, on EUR/USD. Traders are interested in further prospects for easing the monetary policy. Therefore, the market's main attention will be focused on the main points of the accompanying statement and the rhetoric of Christine Lagarde. Recent Eurozone data shows that Q3 GDP growth reached 0.4% QoQ (forecast: 0.2%), the strongest growth rate since the beginning of the year before last. On an annual basis, GDP increased by 0.9% (forecast: 0.8%), the strongest growth rate since the first quarter of 2023. As for inflation, Headline CPI rose to 2.0% (forecast: 1.9%), and the core remained at the previous month's level, 2.7%, with a forecast of a decrease of 2.6%. Inflation of service prices (one of the report's most important components, which is closely monitored by the ECB) remained at a high level—3.9%. These figures suggest that the ECB will continue easing monetary policy moderately. During the post-meeting statement, Lagarde is expected to emphasize a data-dependent approach. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released in the US session, another vital inflation indicator alongside CPI. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released in the US session, another vital inflation indicator alongside CPI. Forecasts suggest that the headline PPI is expected to accelerate to 2.5% YoY, while the core PPI is expected to rise to 3.2% YoY. A stronger PPI print could support the USD, especially if CPI also meets or exceeds forecasts (not to mention the "green zone"). Friday Eurozone industrial production data will be published on Friday. In monthly terms, the indicator should show positive dynamics, but it will remain in the negative area (-0.1% in October against -2.0% in September). In annual terms, the indicator should fall to -3.0% after falling to -2.8%. The Import Prices Index will be released in the US session. Though secondary, it provides additional context for inflation trends. Forecasts indicate a rise to 1.0% YoY in November (up from 0.8% in October and -0.1% in September). Conclusions The spotlight will be on US inflation reports (CPI and PPI) and the ECB meeting. Accelerating US inflation would boost USD demand since, in this case, traders will "remember everything": Mary Daly's hawkish statements, strong Nonfarms, and pro-inflationary policies under the incoming Trump administration. Meanwhile, the ECB's dovish tone amid rising Eurozone inflation could weigh on the euro. Short positions on EUR/USD become relevant if the pair breaks below the 1.0530 support level (the middle Bollinger Band and Tenkan-sen line on D1). The first target is 1.0470 (the lower line of Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the lower border of the Kumo cloud on H4), and the second target is 1.0420 (the lower line of Bollinger Bands on D1). More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The Fed remains cautious despite expectations of a rate cut The head of the Federal Reserve System, Jerome Powell, in his recent comments stressed that the strong US economy gives the central bank the opportunity to be cautious about changes in interest rates. According to Powell, the economy is in good condition, and there is no reason to expect changes in this direction. At the same time, despite the reduction in interest rates by the Fed, the cost of borrowing for citizens has not changed significantly. This is because rates on most loans, such as mortgages and credit cards, depend on the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds, which have recently reached high levels despite efforts to reduce inflation. Powell noted that the current economic situation leaves many uncertainties, including in light of possible changes in the trade policy of the new administration of President Donald Trump. He also expressed hope for constructive relations with the new Government. The issue of the Fed's independence also remains relevant. Some of Trump's economic advisers have suggested giving the president more influence over the regulator's decisions, although many experts emphasize the importance of the central bank's independence for the stability of the economy and the US dollar. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Forecast for USD/JPY on December 5, 2024 Bank of Japan representatives are increasingly expressing concerns about a rate hike ahead of their December 19 meeting (Nakamura), traditionally citing a "broader range of data." Given the Bank of Japan's caution about sudden market changes and its intention to provide prior notice to investors regarding its actions, the rate may remain unchanged at this meeting. If the price consolidates above the 150.83 level, further growth to 153.60 becomes likely, with the pair potentially reaching this level before the Federal Reserve meeting on December 18. On the 4-hour chart, growth has only begun following a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator when the price approached the target range of 148.18/50. The initial impulse has been achieved, but the price needs to consolidate above the MACD line at the 151.24 mark, corresponding to yesterday's high. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Forecast for GBP/USD on December 4, 2024 The movement of the pound sterling within the range of 1.2612–1.2708 since November 14 appears to be consolidation, with false breakouts on both sides on November 22 and 29. Following this logic, the price may now attempt a genuine breakout below the lower boundary of the range, targeting a retest of the 1.2510 support. However, this plan faces resistance from the Marlin oscillator, which has turned upward from the neutral zero line on the daily chart. If this is not the start of a sustained upward movement, it is at least a sign of consolidation. As a result, the price may remain within the range for another 1–2 days until the release of U.S. employment data on Friday. Today, the UK will release November PMI indexes. Business activity in the services sector is expected to decline from 52.0 to 50.0, while the composite PMI may weaken from 51.8 to 49.9. This could increase the likelihood of the price dropping below the range. On the H4 chart, the price is struggling with the balance line support. The Marlin oscillator has twice turned downward from the zero line, increasing the likelihood of the price successfully breaking through the support. Below the 1.2612 level, the price will encounter the MACD line at 1.2582. For a successful break of this level, the price might first consolidate below 1.2612. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: December 3 Russia will receive $1.2 billion from the BRICS bank for the first time in two years. The new BRICS Development Bank is investing $1.2 billion in four projects in Russia, according to the Finance Ministry. The funding will be directed to the preservation of cultural heritage, the development of tourism, the modernization of the judicial system and housing and communal services. Due to sanctions, funds can flow through complex financial schemes. Trump's «peace plan» for Ukraine, the «Kellogg Plan», has leaked to the network. The media published the alleged details of the «Kellogg Plan» based on OSW Report 2024 data. The main points include lifting isolation from Russia, peace talks, economic incentives for Moscow, support for Ukraine and pressure on Kiev. There are no official confirmations yet. Chinese banks are ceasing operations with sub-sanctioned Russian banks. Chinese financial institutions have begun to restrict interaction with Russian banks that have recently been sanctioned by the United States. The Bank of China has already imposed restrictions, and the Bank of Kunlun warns of the impending termination of payments by sub-sanctioned banks. The construction of the last section of the Russia–China gas pipeline has been completed. China has commissioned the last section of the gas pipeline connecting Russia and China. The Nantong–Luzhi section in Jiangsu Province has become the final part of the project, which is now fully operational, according to a statement from the Chinese Pipeline Management Corporation. The United States may lift sanctions against Bashar al-Assad to weaken Syria's ties with Iran and Russia. According to Reuters, Washington is considering lifting sanctions against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The main goal is to reduce Tehran's influence and block the supply of weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 02.12.2024 Despite the acceleration of annual inflation in the Eurozone from 2.0% to 2.3%, the euro failed to rise and even weakened. Although the scale of the decline was limited, it still seems illogical. The issue is that most market participants focus on the data highlighted by the media, which tends to emphasize monthly figures rather than annual ones. As it turns out, while annual inflation increased, consumer prices in monthly terms decreased by 0.3%. From the perspective of macroeconomic analysis, annual data holds more significance, as it is less prone to distortions caused by seasonal fluctuations. On the other hand, due to these seasonal factors, monthly data can appear quite odd, making conclusions based on them fundamentally flawed. It's worth noting that all reports and meeting minutes from key central banks refer specifically to annual inflation, not monthly changes. Thus, the European Central Bank's decisions will be based on accelerating annual inflation to 2.3%, not the 0.3% monthly price decline. However, the media currently gives the impression that the ECB might continue to lower interest rates. This perception is likely to strengthen further, supported by labor market data. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to rise from 6.3% to 6.4%. Therefore, the euro may experience a slight further decline. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: November 29 Steelmaking is declining in Russia. According to data for January-October 2024, steel production decreased by 7% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 59.1 million tons. The largest drop was shown by Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works (MMK) – by 12% and Severstal – by 8%. China will restrict exports of tungsten, an important metal used in weapons and semiconductors starting December 1. The new rules require export licenses, which is associated with increased control over dual-use goods. These measures are being taken against the background of strained relations with the United States, which will ban its contractors from purchasing tungsten from China from 2027. The head of the Russian Defense Ministry arrived in North Korea today. During the visit, a number of meetings with representatives of the military and military-political leadership of the DPRK are planned to discuss bilateral cooperation. The Japanese Prime Minister announced his desire to conclude a peace treaty with Russia. After the outbreak of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, Japan imposed sanctions against Russia, which is why Moscow refused to negotiate the status of the Kuril Islands and conclude peace. In his speech, the Prime Minister did not mention the decision to maintain these sanctions until the end of hostilities. The Brazilian real has updated its historical low on concerns about state finances. Paired with the US dollar, the rial fell to 5.9998 per dollar. Investors are evaluating the long-awaited measures of the administration of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to ensure budget balance: spending cuts of 70 billion reais ($12 billion), personal income tax exemption for people with the lowest wages and an increase in this tax for high-income people. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Inflation and weak tech forecasts: Why Wall Street markets closed lowe Wall Street investors react with losses: Nasdaq in the red amid inflation fears Yesterday's trading on Wall Street ended with losses for all major indices, with the Nasdaq among the leaders of decline. The tech sector suffered significant losses ahead of Thanksgiving as traders grew concerned that the Federal Reserve might back off from aggressive rate cuts amid lingering inflation concerns. Strong Data, Weak Progress The U.S. economy posted solid growth figures, with consumer spending data showing a strong increase in October. However, despite the positive results, efforts to reduce inflation appear to be running into trouble, adding to traders' concerns that the Federal Reserve could take a more cautious stance on interest rates. Markets Expect Fed to Be More Tight Traders on CME's FedWatch platform have increased their bets by 25 basis points, according to the latest calculations, in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its December meeting. However, rates are expected to remain unchanged in January and March. New Trade Threats and Their Impact on the Market Investors are also concerned about the new possible economic consequences of President-elect Donald Trump's statements, who proposed introducing new tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China. These measures will remain in place until countries take the necessary steps to combat illegal migration and drug trafficking. In particular, Trump announced 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports and 10% on Chinese goods if countries do not take action against fentanyl and illegal migrants. Risks to Inflation: Experts' Opinions Economists at Goldman Sachs expressed concern about the possible long-term consequences of this approach. In their recent report, they warned that further escalation of tariff policy could delay inflation's return to the 2% target. These risks put additional pressure on markets, increasing uncertainty in the economic situation. Unresolved Issues and Uncertainty in Markets So, amid strong economic data, trade threats and uncertainty over Fed policy, investors continue to search for clear guidance, which in turn continues to influence the behavior of markets. Wall Street ends the day lower: Tech sector under pressure On Wall Street, indices closed lower on Wednesday, weighed down by strong economic data and concerns about the future policy of the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 138.25 points, or 0.31%, to close at 44,722.06. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 22.89 points, or 0.38%, to close at 5,998.74. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was the biggest loser, falling 115.10 points, or 0.60%, to 19,060.48. Global markets also under pressure It wasn't just U.S. stock indexes that suffered a decline. The MSCI index, which tracks global markets (.MIWD00000PUS), lost 0.10%, falling 0.84 points to 858.24. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) ended the day down 0.19%, also confirming the trend of global market sentiment weakening. Tech sector on the brink of collapse Stocks of major players in the tech sector attracted particular attention in the markets. For example, Dell (DELL.N) shares fell 12% after the company published disappointing forecasts for quarterly results. HP (HPQ.N) shares also fell 6%, weighing on the overall sentiment in the information technology sector. The sector's index (.SPLRCT) fell 1.2%, highlighting the weakness of the leading tech giants. Megacaps fall: Nvidia and Microsoft in the red The biggest tech companies were not spared the negative trends either. Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares showed significant declines, which exacerbated the overall decline in the sector. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index (.SOX) lost 1.8%, showing a weak performance for one of the most profitable industries. Growing interest in small caps, but muted growth in Russell 2000 At the same time, the Russell 2000 index (.RUT), which tracks small company stocks, was a bit on the sidelines of the general decline. After a record high earlier in the week, the index rose by 0.1%, which was the only positive moment among the major stock indices on the trading day. Results of the day: markets await further signals So, the latest trading on Wall Street demonstrated restraint among investors. Amid uncertainty related to possible decisions of the Federal Reserve and the state of the global economy, market participants tend to be cautious. Amid weak forecasts for the largest tech companies and uncertainty around tariff policy, the influence of these factors continues to affect investor sentiment. Investors react to economic data: high growth rates and caution from the Fed Markets continued to demonstrate restrained sentiment despite positive economic data. Investors were closely watching reports that showed the U.S. economy continued to grow at a solid pace in the third quarter. Notably, new jobless claims fell again last week, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates in December. Inflation in Focus: Fed Faces Choice However, despite the strong macroeconomic data, inflation remains under pressure. Scott Welch, chief investment officer at Certuity, noted that inflation was slightly above the Fed's desired levels, casting doubt on the possibility of further rate cuts. In his view, this could force the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance. Trump Tariff Policy: A New Challenge for the Economy Investors are also concerned about the possible impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policy. Welch stressed that if the proposed tariffs are implemented, they could exacerbate inflationary pressures, which in turn would complicate the task for the Fed, which must balance economic data with the policy initiatives of the new administration. Uncertainty at the Fed meeting: Will rates be cut? The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting, released on Tuesday, showed that Fed members remain divided on the issue of future rate cuts. Despite the positive data, they are still unsure how much current rates are constraining economic growth and what approach to take in response to inflation threats and external risks. S&P 500 on the verge of historic gains, but not without difficulties Despite these difficulties, the S&P 500 continues to gain strength, heading for its biggest monthly gain in all of 2024. The reading also marked the sixth straight month of gains in seven months, underscoring positive expectations about the impact of President Trump's economic policies on local businesses and the broader economy. Investor Disappointment: Workday Shares Slip Not all sectors of the market are seeing positive results, however. Workday (WDAY.O) shares fell 6.2% after the company reported weaker-than-expected subscription revenue guidance. Weak customer spending on its human capital management software weighed on the stock and the broader tech sector. Takeaway: Uncertainty and Balancing Act Overall, the market remains in a state of uncertainty, given both economic factors and political risks related to U.S. foreign trade policy. The Federal Reserve, in turn, will be forced to find a balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation, which will be an important factor in determining the future direction of the stock market in the coming months. US Stock Market: Stock Performance and Holiday Expectations The New York Stock Exchange saw a predominance of positive sentiment among stocks on Wednesday. The number of advancing stocks significantly outnumbered the decliners, with a ratio of 1.64 to 1. At the same time, the number of new highs on the NYSE reached 406, while there were only 54 new lows. This indicates that most stocks on the exchange continued to move higher. S&P 500 and Nasdaq: New Highs Amid Market Activity The S&P 500, in turn, noted 79 new 52-week highs, while not recording a single new low. This confirms the resilience of the index's main stocks. The Nasdaq Composite demonstrated even more noticeable growth, recording 136 new highs and 71 new lows, which also reflects positive sentiment in the tech sector. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: November 27 The Russian ruble continues to weaken, despite the support from tax payments and stable oil quotes. On the Moscow Exchange, the yuan has exceeded the mark of 14.5 rubles, and the dollar is approaching the level of 106 rubles. The decline in the Russian currency is due to several factors: the aggravation of the geopolitical situation, new sanctions complicating foreign trade calculations, increased demand for imports and rising budget expenditures, as well as the strengthening of the dollar on world markets. Biden secretly requested an additional $24 billion from Congress to help Ukraine. Of this amount, $16 billion is supposed to be spent on replenishing American weapons stocks, and the remaining funds will be sent directly to Ukraine. Republicans opposed it, accusing Biden of trying to disrupt Donald Trump's possible peace initiatives to resolve the conflict. Walmart has abandoned the policy of inclusivity, the company's shares are growing. Walmart announced the termination of its support for diversity and inclusivity policies, including severing ties with the Center for Racial Equality and withdrawing from the LGBT rights index (the organization is recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation). Against the background of this decision, the company's shares have been showing growth over the past two days. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has entered into force. Israel and Hezbollah have officially stopped fighting in accordance with the new peace agreement. The agreement provides for the gradual control of the Lebanese army over the border territories with the support of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon. Israel, in turn, has pledged to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within two months. The Trump team is evaluating the possibility of direct talks with Kim Jong Un as part of a «new diplomatic push.» Trump's main goal is to restore communication channels between Washington and Pyongyang, but further political contacts and their schedule have not yet been established. It is also noted that these efforts can reduce the risk of armed conflict. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

China resists Trump's pressure by strengthening the yuan The Chinese authorities are facing new tariff threats from US President-elect Donald Trump and are strengthening control over the yuan exchange rate. Immediately after the end of the US elections, the People's Bank of China began to set the daily reference rate of the yuan above 7.2 per dollar, despite dollar fluctuations and analysts' expectations that the central bank would weaken the currency. Such actions by the central bank are reminiscent of the tensions that characterized Trump's first term, but now the stakes are even higher. China is balancing between the desire to protect its currency and the need to stimulate economic growth. This forces the central bank to seek a balance between too strong and too weak yuan exchange rate. Experts believe that the People's Bank of China will keep the yuan relatively stable against the dollar, as it was before. In response to the imposition of additional tariffs, China will rely more on domestic incentives rather than currency devaluation. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

EUR/USD: parity in the risk zone Donald Trump's return to the political arena is alarming for investors, since his economic views, as during the previous presidency, are clearly nationalistic in nature. The EUR/USD pair fell sharply, reaching a two-year low, due to fears that the trade wars that Trump will inevitably resume will lead to an economic crisis in the eurozone. Economic indicators confirmed the deterioration of the situation: the composite PMI fell below the 50 mark, signaling a reduction in economic activity. In this regard, markets expect a more aggressive monetary policy of the European Central Bank, which may lead to a fall in the euro to parity with the dollar. Such a scenario was already implemented in 2022 during the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine, when the euro weakened amid the energy crisis. Previously, a similar situation was observed in 2016, when the dollar rose sharply after Trump's election victory, and then weakened by 2017. Such dynamics may be repeated, especially if the minutes of the October Fed meeting turn out to be «dovish» and inflation in Europe decreases. At the moment, the dollar is holding at 107, and the euro is 104. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Riding the Crest of a Wave: Nvidia Boosts Wall Street, Bitcoin Challenges $100K, Dollar High Stock Markets Recover After Unsettled Trading World stock indexes rose on Thursday despite mixed sentiment among investors. The main topic of trading was Nvidia's forecasts, which, while still positive, fell short of market expectations. At the same time, Bitcoin continued its confident movement, approaching the psychological mark of $100,000. Nvidia: records and disappointment Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O), a company whose technologies are shaping the future of artificial intelligence, started the session with an impressive takeoff, reaching a historical maximum. However, their dynamics later slowed down, and by the end of the day, growth was only 0.53%. Investors were concerned about the company's forecasts: the expected revenue growth was the most modest in the last seven quarters. "Nvidia's results are still impressive, but the lack of brighter prospects for the fourth quarter may have cooled the market's enthusiasm a little," commented Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. Wall Street: growth despite losses of giants On American exchanges, the session ended on a positive note. Major indexes rose, led by gains in utilities, financials, consumer discretionary and industrials. However, communications services remained in the red, led by significant losses in Alphabet (GOOGL.O), which fell 6%. Alphabet faces a new challenge as US authorities demand Google abandon its Chrome browser to eliminate its dominance in internet search. The lawsuit has left investors nervous and the tech giant's shares tumbling. More challenges ahead for the market Despite the upbeat close, investors continue to closely monitor corporate forecasts and the macroeconomic situation. Bitcoin expectations and the future performance of the largest tech companies remain the main themes for the market. Dow triumphs, Nasdaq moderately gains US stock indexes ended the session with varying degrees of growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.06% to 43,870.35, posting a solid gain. The broad-based S&P 500 rose 0.53% to 5,948.71. The Nasdaq Composite, however, was relatively flat, up a modest 0.03% to 18,972.42. Europe: Tech, Energy Lead Gains The MSCI Global Index, which tracks stocks around the world, also showed positive momentum, adding 0.38% to 851.05. However, the day was choppy as uncertainty swept the markets. European stocks, as represented by the STOXX (.STOXX), rose 0.41%, led by a rally in the tech and energy sectors. "There's a bit of a news vacuum in the market right now, which makes it hard to pinpoint a clear direction," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. Bitcoin Heads for $100,000 The cryptocurrency market continues to impress, with Bitcoin, the world's largest digital currency, steadily heading toward the $100,000 mark. It has gained 3.75% in the past 24 hours to reach $98,005. Bitcoin has gained more than 40% since Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 5. Investors attribute this momentum to expectations that the new administration will be favorable to cryptocurrencies. Ethereum Gains Strength It's not just Bitcoin that's showing strength: Ethereum is also showing remarkable results. The cryptocurrency has gained 8.77% to end the day at $3,350.80. Treasury Secretary in Investors' Crosshairs Markets are tensely awaiting the appointment of the Treasury Secretary in the new Trump administration. The choice will be key to implementing policies that include tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff initiatives. Global markets are currently awaiting new guidance, with cryptocurrencies already betting on a looser economic policy. Investors continue to closely monitor Trump's actions and their impact on the global financial arena. A strong labor market supports the dollar The US dollar rose amid an unexpected decline in jobless claims, indicating a resilient labor market. An additional factor was the statements by Federal Reserve officials, who emphasized the possibility of further interest rate hikes. However, currency movements were mixed. The dollar fell 0.62% against the Japanese yen, falling to 154.45, but strengthened against the Swiss franc by 0.29%, reaching 0.887. Dollar Index on the Rise The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.37% to 107, its highest in 13 months. The euro, by contrast, weakened, losing 0.41% to $1.0479. Russia and Ukraine Shake Up Oil Markets Oil prices jumped sharply, gaining about 2%, after reports of a missile exchange between Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns about the stability of crude supplies to the global market. Brent crude futures rose 1.95% to $74.23 a barrel, while WTI futures added 2% to $70.10. Investors are worried that geopolitical tensions could continue to push prices higher. Fourth straight session of growth The gold market is showing positive dynamics, strengthening its position as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold rose by 0.8%, reaching $2,671.28 per ounce. US gold futures also went up, adding 0.9% and reaching $2,674.90. Gold's growth is accompanied by increasing interest from investors who are looking for stability in the face of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Financial markets: new challenges and opportunities The combination of economic factors such as a strong labor market and the Fed's comments with geopolitical risks creates a volatile but opportunity-rich environment for investors. Currency and commodity markets continue to react to the rapidly changing news background, making strategy selection key to success. Why the US retains its leadership? US stocks continue to strengthen their positions, significantly outperforming global peers. Investors associate this with hopes for the implementation of the economic program of President-elect Donald Trump. But the key to success will be the administration's ability to avoid escalating trade tensions and keep the budget deficit under control. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen an impressive 24% in 2024, outpacing the major benchmarks in Europe, Asia and emerging markets. The premium of the US index over the MSCI index of more than 40 countries has reached 22 times expected returns, according to LSEG Datastream. This is the largest gap in the last 20 years. Tech and Economy on the US Side Despite more than a decade of US stock dominance, the gap has widened this year, thanks to robust US economic growth and strong corporate earnings. The tech sector continues to be a driving force, with the excitement around artificial intelligence driving growth for companies such as Nvidia (NVDA.O). A New Wave of Investing in Technology Nvidia, a recognized leader in AI chips, continues to be a bellwether for tech companies. The success of Nvidia and other players in the industry shows that investors are betting on the future of tech, which will be defined by artificial intelligence. "The US stock market is currently playing to its strengths: innovation, corporate profits, and economic resilience," analysts say. How long will the US maintain its leadership? While the current situation seems optimistic, the market is not immune to risks. Investors are closely monitoring the steps of the new administration, especially on tax policy, tariffs, and the budget. Any deviation from this course could be a turning point for the market. Global Competition: Can the World Catch Up with the US? While other regions, including Europe and emerging markets, are struggling with challenges such as slowing economic growth and geopolitical instability, the US continues to set the standard. However, the competition is not abating, and global markets may start to close the gap in the coming years. US stocks remain at the top, but the question is how long this position will last. Investors should be prepared for changes and watch developments closely. Taxes, deregulation and tariffs: a recipe for success? Donald Trump's economic platform of tax cuts, deregulation and the use of tariffs as leverage has provoked mixed reactions. However, many experts believe that these measures can strengthen the US leadership on the global stage, despite possible side effects such as inflation and trade conflicts. "Given the stimulative nature of the new administration's policies, US stocks will struggle to find worthy rivals at least until the end of 2025," says Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays. Investors vote for the US Following the November 5 election, inflows into US equity funds have reached record levels. In the week since the vote, investors have poured more than $80 billion into U.S. assets. By contrast, European and emerging markets have seen significant capital outflows, according to Deutsche Bank. This shift in priorities reflects growing confidence in the U.S. market amid expectations for higher returns and stability. U.S. companies continue to dominate One of the main reasons for the resilience of the U.S. market is impressive corporate earnings growth. LSEG Datastream forecasts S&P 500 earnings to grow 9.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025. By comparison, Europe's Stoxx 600 index is expected to grow more modestly: 1.8% this year and 8.1% next year. The gap underscores the U.S. lead in corporate profitability. "America remains the region that has the highest earnings growth and maintains strong profitability," says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. What's next for the market? Experts note that even if global markets begin to catch up with the US, the US market will remain a key point of attraction for investors due to its sustainable growth and pro-business policies. However, the question remains: will the Trump administration be able to balance ambitious reforms without causing side effects that could undermine this success? Investors will continue to watch every step, assessing how the implementation of the economic program will affect the dynamics of global markets. $14 trillion versus Europe: the imbalance is growing The largest US tech companies play a key role in the country's economic leadership. The five giants - Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet - are valued at a whopping $14 trillion. By comparison, the market capitalization of all 600 companies in the European STOXX 600 index is about $11 trillion, according to LSEG data. It is the strong performance of these corporations that accounts for much of the growth of the S&P 500 index, making it a favorite for investors. GDP growth outpaces global indicators Forecasts for the coming years show that the United States will continue to outpace other countries in terms of economic growth. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, US GDP will increase by 2.8% in 2024 and by 2.2% in 2025. In comparison, the economies of the eurozone countries expect modest growth: 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year. This advantage is supported by strong support for the technology sector, which continues to be the engine of development. Import duties as a pressure tool One of Donald Trump's key initiatives is to increase import tariffs. Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, believes that such measures, even with certain costs, will strengthen the position of the United States. "If tariffs in the range of 10-20% are imposed on goods from Europe, they will suffer much more than we will," Mullaney noted. Trump is betting on protecting the American market, which could become an additional lever for strengthening the economy. Republican control strengthens its position The consolidation of Republican power in Washington opens up more opportunities for Trump to implement his agenda. This has already affected economists' forecasts. Deutsche Bank has improved its expectations for US GDP growth in 2025, increasing its forecast from 2.2% to 2.5%. The political support of the Trump administration, technological leadership, and ambitious plans for economic reform make the United States a central player on the world stage. The only question is how long it will be able to maintain this advantage. Limited capabilities of Congress While tax cuts and deregulation remain the main drivers of Donald Trump's economic program, a narrow majority in Congress could limit the implementation of the most radical initiatives. Among them are tariffs, which have already caused active debate. As analysts note, the administration will take into account the reaction of the markets to avoid undue pressure. S&P 500 Forecasts: From 5100 to 6600 Experts at UBS Global Wealth Management predict that the S&P 500 index could reach 6600 next year. Such growth is due to several factors: progress in artificial intelligence, lower interest rates, tax reforms, and deregulation. However, a scenario of a full-scale trade war with China and other partners could have negative consequences. If countries begin to take retaliatory measures against American tariffs, the index could fall to 5100 points. UBS emphasizes that in this case, global markets will also suffer. Government contracts and pharmaceuticals under pressure Not all industries are enthusiastic about Trump's reforms. Concerns about reducing bureaucracy have already hit shares of government contractors. Drugmakers have also found themselves in a difficult situation after the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known vaccine skeptic, to the post of head of the Department of Health and Human Services. Such decisions create uncertainty for individual sectors of the economy, increasing volatility in the stock market. Budget deficit and bonds under pressure A radical tax cut carries the risk of increasing the national debt. It is these fears that triggered the recent sell-off in US bonds, which led to an increase in the yield on 10-year notes. Financial experts warn that a possible increase in the deficit could put pressure on the market, creating problems for long-term investments. On the brink of change: what to expect from Trump's policies? The reforms promised by the administration create both opportunities and risks. The forecasts for the US economy remain strong, but their implementation will depend on the ability to find a balance between ambitious initiatives and the reaction of the markets. Investors, in turn, are closely monitoring every step in order to adapt their strategies in time in a rapidly changing economic environment. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Market at crossroads amid tensions: How investors are saving themselves in an era of uncertainty Nasdaq slows down as investors ponder The tech-heavy Nasdaq ended Wednesday in the red, breaking the day's upward move. The reason was the growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as weak financial results from Target. Investors were anxiously awaiting the release of Nvidia's quarterly results, which, however, fell short of inflated expectations. Dow in the green, S&P 500 is flat The Dow Jones managed to finish the session higher, while the S&P 500 remained virtually unchanged. Meanwhile, morning trading began with a general decline - the news of Ukraine using British Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory stirred up the markets. This happened immediately after the announcement of the launch of American ATACMS missiles, which prompted Russia to announce a reduction in the nuclear threshold. "Fear scale" at a maximum since 2020 The Wall Street VIX volatility index, known as the "fear scale", rose to 18.79, which was a record since November 2020, and then fell to 17.24. Despite the pullback, anxiety in the markets remains high. "After yesterday's strong rally in the tech sector, today the market switched to a more defensive mode," said James Regan, head of research at D.A. Davidson. Nvidia: High Expectations Disappointed The quarterly earnings report from AI chipmaker Nvidia was the highlight of the evening. The company's shares were down 0.76% during the session and fell further after the close. Despite a fourth-quarter revenue forecast that beat analysts' average estimates, investors were expecting more. The market, which has seen a strong rally, is once again faced with a choice between risk and caution as global events add uncertainty. Tech Under Pressure: Nasdaq Slightly Down The information technology sector was under pressure, ending the session down 0.23%, which affected overall investor sentiment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.11%, showing that confidence in the segment has weakened somewhat. Target: Drops in Gift Season Target shares plunged 21.4% after the company issued holiday sales and profit guidance that fell short of analysts' expectations. The company's weak third-quarter results added to investor disappointment. Target's decline also weighed on the consumer discretionary index, which lost 0.57% on the day and was the worst performer in the sector. Tesla and Amazon are down Tesla shares fell 1.15% and Amazon lost 0.85%, indicating that investors are taking a cautious approach to growth assets. These companies, which had previously been leaders in their segments, are now facing more subdued expectations. Indices: Mixed Results Among the major indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to rise 139.53 points (+0.32%), closing at 43,408.47. The S&P 500 showed almost zero dynamics, adding a symbolic 0.13 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 21.32 points (-0.11%) to 18,966.14. Nvidia: a leader or a source of risk? Despite the decline in Nvidia shares during the last session, its annual dynamics remain impressive: since the beginning of the year, the shares have almost tripled their value. According to BofA Global Research, this has brought about 20% of the return of the entire S&P 500 index over the past 12 months. Artificial intelligence: prospects and challenges "Companies are starting to share successful cases of using AI, showing how investments in new technologies bring additional income or help reduce costs," analysts comment. However, investors are cautious, preferring to wait for confirmation of the sustainability of these trends. The market is entering a new phase where high expectations collide with the reality of results, and geopolitical instability continues to shape sentiment. MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings: Rapid Growth MicroStrategy shares soared by 10%, while MARA Holdings showed an even more impressive growth of 13.9%. These companies linked to the cryptocurrency sector received support amid improving investor sentiment and growing interest in digital assets. Central Bank: December Intrigue Traders have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at its December meeting. This opinion was formed amid the publication of strong economic data that shows the economy is stable despite persistent inflation. NYSE and Nasdaq: The odds are stacked against the downside On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), decliners outnumbered gainers by a 1.24-to-1 ratio, with 184 new highs and 94 new lows. On the Nasdaq, the story is similar: 2,245 stocks fell, compared to 2,007 gainers, for a ratio of 1.12-to-1. The S&P 500 posted 30 new 52-week highs and 13 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 92 new highs and 163 new lows, underscoring the overall trend of uncertainty in the market. Trading Activity: Volumes Decline Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.2 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 14.32 billion. This indicates some caution among traders in the current market conditions. Global Markets: Balancing Act On the international stage, stocks showed a moderate decline, as traders continued to take into account the growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. Meanwhile, Bitcoin set a new record, demonstrating investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. The dollar also strengthened after three days of decline, which became an additional signal of a change in sentiment in the currency markets. The financial world once again demonstrates a complex interplay of factors, where global events, economic data and central bank actions are intertwined into a complex picture of uncertainty. Market ends the session with variable dynamics The S&P 500 index ended trading virtually unchanged, reflecting neutral investor sentiment. The Dow Jones turned out to be in the green, while the Nasdaq showed a decline, continuing the correction after the recent rally. Among the leaders of growth, shares of companies from the healthcare, energy and materials sectors stood out. In contrast, consumer staples, financials and technology stocks were weak, becoming the session's main losers. Global indices: moderate decline The MSCI All-World Index, which measures the overall performance of global markets, fell 0.16% to 847.84. European stocks also ended the day lower, although the decline was minimal, down 0.02%. Nvidia: pressure from high expectations Investors were watching Nvidia shares closely, which came under some pressure after the release of quarterly results. Despite the decline, the situation was not catastrophic, said James St. Aubyn, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management. "Nvidia remains a key player in the market, but expectations are rising each quarter and they are becoming increasingly difficult to meet. We are at that point where high expectations are starting to put pressure," St. Aubyn added. Outlook: Market at a crossroads The session showed that market participants remained cautious, balancing expectations for further growth with concerns related to geopolitics and corporate results. Global stocks reflected the general tension, with investors weighing local and global risk factors. This week promises to be eventful, and the coming days may provide clearer signals about the direction of markets in the near future. Gold and bonds: a safe haven for investors Gold and government bond prices continued to rise on Tuesday, as markets reacted to the escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Such news caused increased demand for safe assets. Gold: triumph of the third session Gold prices reached a weekly high, continuing to rise for the third trading session in a row. Spot gold increased by 0.69%, reaching $2,649.89 per ounce. U.S. gold futures showed a similar gain of 0.8%, reaching $2,651.70. The rise in gold prices reflects investors' appetite for conservative strategies amid global instability. Treasury Secretary Appointment: Intrigue in Focus Also in focus is Donald Trump's choice for Treasury Secretary, which is expected to be announced as early as Wednesday. "The market is recognizing that some of Trump's policies, such as tariffs and deportations, carry inflation risks," said Lukasz Tomicki, co-founder of LRT Capital in Austin, Texas. Bond yields have risen sharply since the election, confirming market participants' expectations. Dollar: Recovering from Losses The dollar index rose 0.54% to 106.68, snapping a three-day losing streak, although current levels remain below a one-year high. The dollar also gained against key currencies, up 0.48% against the yen to 155.40 and 0.2% against the Swiss franc to 0.88410. The dollar index has gained nearly 3% since the November 5 election, underscoring confidence in the U.S. economy. Global markets are on hold: geopolitical tensions, monetary policy and personnel decisions in the US continue to influence asset movements. The latest statements and actions by leaders can radically change the trajectory of investor sentiment. Yuan under pressure: the market reacts to the central bank's decision The Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar after the People's Bank of China decided to leave its base lending rates unchanged, as analysts had predicted. In the offshore market, the yuan lost 0.22%, falling to 7.251 per dollar. Such a decline reflects the general caution of investors in the context of stable monetary policy in China. Bitcoin: a new ascent to records The cryptocurrency surprised the markets again, reaching a new record level just below $95,000. During the last session, the price of bitcoin rose by 2.53%, reaching $94,579.01. Bitcoin has risen more than 30% since Donald Trump was elected. Market participants attribute this growth to expectations of more favorable regulation of the cryptocurrency sector under the new administration. Trump and Bakkt: a signal for the cryptocurrency market Bitcoin received an additional boost from a Financial Times report that Trump Media and Technology Group, which owns the social network Truth Social, is close to acquiring all shares of the Bakkt cryptocurrency trading platform. This news has increased speculation about Trump's possible influence on the development of digital assets. Oil: prices continue to fall Oil prices fell, reflecting excess crude and gasoline inventories in the United States, which turned out to be higher than expected. Brent crude futures for January delivery fell 0.68%, closing at $72.81 per barrel. WTI contracts for December delivery ended the session down 0.75%, reaching $68.87 per barrel. The more active January WTI contract also showed a decline of 0.71%, closing at $68.75. Markets balance between news Market participants continue to closely monitor news from China, the crypto industry and the commodities sector. The influence of global economic policy and unexpected corporate events, such as a possible deal around Bakkt, create high volatility and intrigue, which creates unique opportunities for investors. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: November 20 The United States will not change its nuclear policy, despite changes in Russian doctrine. According to Bloomberg, a Pentagon spokesman said that the United States has no data indicating that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The changes in the Russian nuclear doctrine, according to Pentagon officials, did not come as a surprise to Washington. Biden approved the supply of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, which are prohibited by an international agreement. The United States made this decision to help Ukrainian troops deter the advance of Russian troops. The shipments include mines that are subject to the prohibitions of the Ottawa Convention, signed by 164 countries, including the United States and Russia. Japan and China continue to actively sell American government bonds. Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion of U.S. bonds in the three months ended September 30, and Chinese funds disposed of $51.3 billion worth of treasuries over the same period. Experts attribute these actions to the expectations of Donald Trump's return to power. Vladimir Putin will visit India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Against this background, Bloomberg noted the failure of US efforts to isolate Russia on the world stage. At the same time, Washington cannot put pressure on India, as it considers it a key ally in the confrontation with China. Trump may lift sanctions against Russia at the end of the conflict in Ukraine. A representative of the President-elect's transition team commented on the prospect of easing and lifting Washington's sanctions against Moscow, as well as normalizing trade and economic relations between the United States and Russia. He stated that this is «certainly an opportunity if the conflict in Ukraine turns out to be resolved.» More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv