MikhailLF

WTI Crude Oil: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave B, and the formation of the upward wave C started, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii of 1 is forming, within which a local correction has developed as the wave iv of (iii). If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 60.00–65.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 49.06.

XAU/USD: wave analysis The pair may grow. On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) formed, a downward correction developed as the wave (4), and the wave (5) forms. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level 1 of (5) has formed, a local correction has developed as the wave 2 of (5), and the formation of the wave 3 of (5) is starting. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 2000.00–2075.45. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1811.49.

WTI Crude Oil: oil is preparing to renew the local high Current trend The oil price is moving sideways, trading at the level of 52.50. Quotes reacted to the data on energy reserves very sharply. According to the API Institute, the amount of oil in American vaults fell by 5.272 million barrels against the expected increase of 0.603 million barrels. According to the report of the US EIA, the reduction was more significant. The indicator fell by 9.910 million barrels against the expected increase of 0.430 million barrels. However, such a tangible decrease in stocks gave the instrument only a temporary upward impetus, and the growth was offset by the subsequent news of the suspension of arms supplies from the United States to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Although the ban is temporary, experts fear that relations between the countries will deteriorate, which will add additional uncertainty to the energy market. Support and resistance On the local chart of the asset, the price moves within the downwards channel, which can transform into a Flag pattern of the trend continuation. Technical indicators are uncertain. Fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator intertwined with the signal one and the histogram of the AO oscillator is approaching the positive zone. Resistance levels: 53.10, 55.00. Support levels: 52.00, 50.30.

EUR/USD: ambiguous dynamics Current trend EUR shows flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near the level of 1.2150. Investors do not open new trading positions yet, waiting for the Fed's monetary policy comments to be released tonight. The markets were a little wary after Joe Biden's statements that he is ready to adjust the previously announced USD 1.9 trillion stimulus plan for the US economy. Today, European investors expect the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Germany and France on the level of consumer confidence in February and January, respectively. In addition, attention will be drawn to the speech of the ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, who can comment on the recent statements by Christine Lagarde about a possible double recession in the eurozone. Support and resistance In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator line is also trying to consolidate above the zero level. Stochastic, having reached the level of "80" reversed downwards and does not react to yesterday's resumption of growth of the instrument. To open new positions, it is necessary to wait for the trade signals to become clear. Resistance levels: 1.2200, 1.2234, 1.2271, 1.2309. Support levels: 1.2150, 1.2120, 1.2087, 1.2052.

NZD/USD: a movement to the local high Current trend The NZD/USD pair shows a steady upward trend, trading near the level of 0.7211. The positive momentum continues after the publication of the New Zealand CPI on Friday. The Q4 figure quarter was 0.5%, significantly surpassing the skeptical forecasts of analysts at the level of 0.1%. Manufacturing PMI for December fell but remained above the stability level, amounting to 48.7 points. The USD Index is declining, despite the positive Friday statistics, and moves around 90.100. Investors are waiting for the start of active actions by Joe Biden as president and are in no hurry to make a choice. Sales in the secondary housing market for December rose again and reached 6.76 million against the background of the forecast of 6.55 million. Manufacturing PMI for January reached 59.1 points, which is better than 57.1 in the previous period. Support and resistance After the breakout of the local resistance line, the formation and subsequent development of the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is possible. Technical indicators are in a local buying state and are ready to strengthen their readings. The fluctuation range of the EMA on the Alligator indicator began to expand, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, trading in the positive zone, forms upward bars. Resistance levels: 0.7236, 0.7340. Support levels: 0.7165, 0.7032.

GBP/USD: consolidating at record highs Current trend GBP is trading down against USD during today's morning session, correcting slightly after yesterday's renewing record highs since May 2018. The decline in the instrument is largely due to technical factors, while fundamentally the picture changes only slightly. Moderate support for USD is provided by rather positive macroeconomic statistics from the US, which entered the market on Thursday. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending January 15 fell from 926K to 900K, while investors expected a decrease in the figure to 910K. Continuing Jobless Claims were revised down from 5.181M to 5.054M with the forecast for growth to 5.4M. In turn, GBP is under slight pressure on Friday after the publication of GfK Consumer Confidence. In January, the index fell from –26 to –28 points, while the market expected a decline to –29 points. Support and resistance The Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the development of "bullish" sentiments at the moment. MACD indicator is growing preserving a buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term. Resistance levels: 1.3760, 1.3834, 1.3900. Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600, 1.3552.

XAG/USD: silver returns to global growth Current trend Silver contracts are correcting upwards, trading at $26 an ounce. Of all the assets of the metal group, silver has the highest chances of further growth. The asset is not as dependent on fluctuations in global capital as gold, and due to its much smaller money capacity, responds more quickly to fluctuations in the US dollar. The recent decline in the USD has led to the current strengthening of silver. In the future, the instrument can be supported by stability in the Chinese economy, the main importer of the metal. Yesterday, several key data were published, such as the rate of the People's Bank of China, which remained at 3.85%, and the volume of industrial production which increased by 7.3%. Thus, despite a new outbreak of coronavirus in some provinces, economic activity and demand in the PRC are strengthening, supporting silver. Support and resistance On the global chart of the asset, the price, after a rather significant downward impulse, is correcting upwards again, reversed from the resistance line of the global triangle pattern. Technical indicators are uncertain. The fluctuation range of the EMA on the Alligator indicator is narrowed, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is in the sell zone. Resistance levels: 27.54, 30.00. Support levels: 24.60, 21.76.

XAU/USD: gold is in demand again Current trend Gold prices are rising significantly during today's Asian session, updating local highs of January 15. The instrument is testing the level of 1850.00 for a breakout. Noticeable pressure on USD was exerted by the speech of the candidate for the post of the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who spoke in favor of a gradual return of the "strong dollar policy". In any case, it seems that the Joe Biden administration will not engage in artificial weakening of the national currency, as well as prosecute other countries for such actions. In addition, investors are looking forward to Biden's inauguration today, and also expect quick decisions on the announced USD 2 trillion support package for the US economy. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range expands from below, weakly reacting to the appearance of ambiguous trading dynamics in the nearest future. MACD is reversing to growth forming a new buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term. Technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the uptrend in the short and/or ultra-short term. Resistance levels: 1850.00, 1863.34, 1875.09, 1900.00. Support levels: 1830.00, 1811.96, 1800.00.

EUR/USD: wave analysis The pair may fall. On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) developed, within which the fifth wave v of 1 formed. Now, a downward correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (3), within which the wave a of 2 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 1.1976–1.1890. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2219.

WTI Crude Oil: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave B, and the formation of the upward wave C started, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 60.00–65.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 46.89.

Brent Crude Oil: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave B, and the upward wave C started to form, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 59.92–65.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 52.11.

EUR/USD: the pair declines again Current trend The EUR/USD pair declines, trading around the level of 1.2146. Yesterday, the European currency strengthened against its main competitors after the publication of macroeconomic statistics. The volume of industrial production in the EU for November rose by 2.5% MoM against the expected growth of 0.2% and adjusted to –0.6% YoY against the background of forecasts of –3.3%. The volume of industrial production in Italy for the same period remained rather low and amounted to –4.2% YoY, which is still better than the forecast of –4.3%. After a slight downward correction, the American currency returned to the upward dynamics, which determined the instrument's trend. Although the main news is the possible impeachment of US President Donald Trump, experts call the likelihood of this event almost zero since the Senate, most likely, will not take this responsibility. Support and resistance Locally, the price left the uptrend, breaking the support line. After a short correction, it is ready to go below the local minimum. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal. The fluctuation range of the EMA on the Alligator indicator is expanding, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the negative zone. Resistance levels: 1.2218, 1.2310. Support levels: 1.2130, 1.2000.

AUD/USD: wave analysis The pair may grow. On the daily chart, the wave C of the higher level develops, within which the first wave (1) of C forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 3 has formed, the local correction iv of 3 has ended, and the fifth wave v of 3 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.7900–0.8100. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7660.

XAG/USD: wave analysis The pair may grow. On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) formed, a downward correction developed as the wave 2 of (3), and the formation of the wave 3 of (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 3 has formed, and the local correction has ended as the wave ii of 3. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 28.00–29.73. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 24.18.

EUR/USD: wave analysis The price may fall. On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) developed, within which the fifth wave v of 1 formed. Now, a downward correction is starting to develop as the second wave 2 of (3), within which the wave a of 2 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 1.1976–1.1890. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2352.

EUR/USD: EUR is corrected Current trend EUR is declining insignificantly against USD today, developing the "bearish" signal that formed the day before. Noticeable pressure on EUR was exerted yesterday by macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone, which came out worse than expected. The volume of Retail Sales in November fell by 6.1% MoM after rising by 1.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics, but counted on a decrease by 3.4% MoM. On an annualized basis, sales fell by 2.9% YoY, while the forecasts were for an increase by 0.8% YoY. The data on consumer inflation were also negative. In December, the Consumer Price Index fell by 0.3% YoY, repeating November dynamics. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the indicator to –0.2% YoY. Today, European investors are focused on the statistics on Industrial Production from Germany for November, as well as on the Unemployment Rate in the eurozone for the same period. Support and resistance In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is trying to consolidate, while remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down having formed a new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, signaling the presence of significant "bearish" potential in the ultra-short term. Existing short positions should be kept in the short and/or ultra-short term until the signals from technical indicators clear up. Resistance levels: 1.2271, 1.2309, 1.2348, 1.2400. Support levels: 1.2234, 1.2200, 1.2150, 1.2087.

XAU/USD: gold quotes are correcting Current trend Gold quotes are consolidating around 1919.00. As expected by most experts, the price of the precious metal has shown significant growth since the beginning of the year, and despite yesterday's decline, it remains fairly high. Undoubtedly, the strengthening of quotes is directly related to the situation around the coronavirus pandemic: the recent introduction of additional restrictions in a number of countries have pushed investors to avert risk and seek "safe havens". However, the transition to gold was not that significant. Since mid-December, the precious metal has a new competitor, Bitcoin. It was cryptocurrency that some institutional investors began to consider as a more reliable means of fighting inflation. Bitcoin is growing, and not only preserves assets but also brings very high profitability, which makes some investors, who have always kept their funds in gold, to make a short-term choice in favor of cryptocurrency. Support and resistance Quotes, which left the global descending channel yesterday, attempted to test the resistance line, after which growth may continue. Technical indicators continue to show a buy signal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are higher than the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the positive zone. Resistance levels: 1951.0, 2067.0 Support levels: 1886.0, 1774.0.

XAG/USD: the prices are consolidated Current trend Silver prices are showing a moderate decline on Wednesday, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. The instrument is still supported by the weak USD, which is waiting for new drivers at the market. US investors are watching Georgia's second round of Senate elections. If at least one Republican candidate wins, the Senate will remain with Mitch McConnell, which will allow Republicans to block the controversial initiatives of Democrat Joe Biden in the next two years. If both positions go to the Democrats, then the final word will remain with US Vice President Kamala Harris. In turn, the demand for silver is supported against the background of a worsening epidemiological situation in Europe, which threatens with new restrictions. The UK has recently decided on a third full quarantine, since for several weeks the incidence statistics have been setting new records. The speed with which a new strain of coronavirus is being detected in countries around the world is also worrying. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is narrowing, pointing at the ambiguous nature of trading in the ultra-short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps an upward direction but is approaching its highs, which reflects the overbought silver in the ultra-short term. Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified. Resistance levels: 27.65, 28.00, 28.50. Support levels: 27.14, 26.74, 26.27, 25.97.

Brent Crude Oil: waiting for OPEC decision Current trend Today, during the Asian session, oil prices grow slightly, testing the level of 51.00 for a breakout. Yesterday, quotes decreased steadily, responding to the complication of the epidemiological situation in Europe, which correlates poorly with the market's plans to gradually increase energy demand. Also, investors fear that OPEC+ will decide to start a gradual increase in oil production. However, yesterday's meeting of the cartel did not lead to any specific decision, and it was decided to continue negotiations on January 5. Most of the OPEC+ countries are in favor of maintaining the current restrictions on production, while the UAE and Russia believe that oil production should be gradually increased. On Tuesday, investors await the publication of a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of January 1. The previous report showed a steady decline in inventories by 4.875 million barrels. Support and resistance On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands reverse into a horizontal plane. The price range narrows, reflecting the ambiguous trading in the short term. MACD falls, maintaining a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic falls but is rapidly approaching the lows, signaling that the instrument may become oversold in the super short term. It is better to keep the current short positions until the signals from technical indicators are clarified. Resistance levels: 51.07, 52.00, 52.65, 53.26. Support levels: 50.00, 49.07, 48.40, 47.50.

BTC/USD: technical analysis Current trend Since mid-December, the BTC/USD pair has been moving in an uptrend, constantly renewing historical highs. Over the past week, the price added over 34% and rose above 34700.00. The asset remains popular with investors due to a difficult global economic situation and deterioration in relations between the United States and China, caused by the delisting of several Chinese companies from the New York Stock Exchange. Experts note that relations between the first two world economies are unlikely to significantly improve under the new American President Joe Biden, and therefore digital assets will remain attractive. Currently, quotes have slowed down, trading at 34375.00 (Murrey [7/8]), a breakout of which allows further growth to the levels of 37400.00 (Murrey [8/8]) and 40,000.00. The key “bearish” level is 31250.00 (Murrey [6/8]). If the price consolidates below it, a decline to the levels of 28125.00 (Murrey [5/8]) and 25000.00 (Murrey [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands) may follow. Technical indicators point to continued growth. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards. The MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone. Stochastic is in the overbought zone moving horizontally. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 34375.00, 37400.00, 40000.00. Support levels: 31250.00, 28125.00, 25000.00.

WTI Crude Oil: waiting for new drivers Current trend Today during the Asian session, oil prices move flat, trading near $48 per barrel. The price is moderately supported by the approval of new stimuli for the American economy by US President Donald Trump. They involve direct payments to citizens of $600. Earlier, Trump tried to insist on increasing this amount to $2,000, which was approved in the House of Representatives but the Senate majority blocked the initiative, deciding to put the issue in a separate bill. Yesterday, quotes were significantly supported by the US EIA report, which reflected a sharp decline in oil reserves for the week of December 25 by 6.1 million barrels after falling by 0.56 million barrels previously. Analysts expected further decrease but hoped for a fall of only 2.58 million barrels. However, the upcoming OPEC meeting, which will be held on January 4, remains a “bearish” factor. It is expected that the cartel will decide to increase oil production by 500K barrels per day. Support and resistance On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands grow moderately. The price range narrows from below, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD falls, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic grows slightly, approaching the level of 80 and limiting the development of “bullish” sentiment in the ultra-short term. It is better to wait until the signals from technical indicators are clear. Resistance levels: 48.52, 48.81, 49.23. Support levels: 48.00, 47.50, 47.00, 46.13.

AUD/USD: wave analysis The pair may grow. On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) formed, and a local correction developed as the second wave 2 of (1). Now, the third wave 3 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 3 has formed, and a correction has ended as the wave iv of 3. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.7800–0.8100. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7458.

WTI Crude Oil: the price is consolidating Current trend The price of WTI crude oil is trading sideways, being at the level of 47.82. Oil quotes are traded with increased volatility. The external information background has a significant impact on the choice of investors. Thus, the situation with the beginning of vaccination in many countries is undoubtedly a positive factor for the asset. However, the greatest expectations are associated with the OPEC+ meeting, which will be held on January 4. The cartel members plan to consider the possibility of increasing quotas for oil production by 500K barrels per day. The past week has confirmed the increased interest in contracts from investors. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the number of net speculative positions in crude oil for the first time since August reached 525.7K, which exceeds the 514.6K shown a week earlier. Support and resistance On the local chart of the asset, the price continues to trade within the upward channel and is currently consolidating near the key level of 48.00. Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty. The fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator have crossed with the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is in the positive zone. Resistance levels: 49.00, 53.00. Support levels: 46.00, 42.50.

EUR/USD: wave analysis The pair is in a correction and may grow. On the 4-hour chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a downward correction ended as the wave iv of 1, and the fifth wave v of 1 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v has formed, and a local correction is developing as the fourth wave (iv) of v. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2340–1.2400. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2074.

XAG/USD: silver rises again Current trend Silver contract prices began to recover again, trading at $25.7 an ounce. In December, world prices for precious metals are quite stable and fully reflect the behavior of investors in the markets. In this regard, it is quite convenient to track the future possible movement of an asset by comparing it with the quotes of the VIX volatility index. Historically, as the VIX rises, tensions rise in the markets, and investors start to actively move into the assets of the metal group, using them as shelter assets. The VIX has been declining since last Friday but yesterday, there was a major reversal, and the index rose sharply from 22.37 points to the current level of 23.31 points. Accordingly, soon, the strengthening of silver quotes is expected, especially since the long weekend is coming. Support and resistance On the local chart of the asset, the price moves within the local ascending channel. Inside it, the instrument has reached the support line and is forming a reversal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal one upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the sell zone but very close to the transition level. Resistance levels: 26.10, 27.40. Support levels: 25.10, 23.60.