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MikhailLF

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  1. NZD/USD: the pair corrects downward Current trend The NZD/USD pair corrects downwards against the global growth of the US dollar, trading near the level of 0.6568. Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, the regulator expanded the large-scale asset purchase program (LSAP) to 100 billion New Zealand dollars in order to further reduce retail interest rates to achieve the target volume. The bank noted that New Zealand has contained the local spread of COVID-19 in recent months, easing social constraints and revitalizing economic activity, as seen in earlier figures. There was not much macroeconomic data from the US this week, and it is worth highlighting only yesterday's data on the Core Consumer Price Index, which reached 0.6% for July against the background of the forecast of 0.2%. The situation inside the country continues to be tense, which does not allow the dollar to finally consolidate in an upward trend. As a result of yesterday's session, the USD Index fell again and is now trading around 93.230. Support and resistance On the global chart, the upward movement develops within a wide upward channel, and the price is very close to the support line. Technical indicators start to reverse. Fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator crossed, and the AO oscillator histogram approached the transition level. Resistance levels: 0.6695, 0.6790. Support levels: 0.6520, 0.6380.
  2. Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, updating local lows of August 3. The instrument loses about 0.2%, preparing to test the level of 1.1700 for a breakdown. USD was again supported by President Donald Trump, who announced the preparation of a bill to reduce the capital gains tax. However, closer to the end of the afternoon session, the market still returned to negative dynamics. The euro, in turn, received support after the publication of the results of the ZEW study. ZEW Economic Sentiment in the euro area in August rose from 59.6 to 64 points, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations of 59.9 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany for the same period soared from 59.3 to 71.5 points, while forecasts assumed its decline to 58 points. GBP/USD GBP declines against USD in today's Asian session, testing the level of 1.3000 for a breakdown. British investors remain focused on Tuesday's publications from the UK, as well as the data on US producer inflation for July. Claimant Count Change in the UK in July showed a record increase of 94.4K, while in June applications showed negative dynamics at the level of –28.1K. Experts expected the growth by 10K only. Claimant Count Rate fell by 2.2% in July after rising by 7.3% a month earlier. At the same time, the ILO Unemployment Rate in June (for 3 months) remained at the level of 3.9%, despite the projected growth to 4.2%. AUD/USD AUD shows negative dynamics paired with USD at trading on Wednesday, developing a corrective impulse formed at the end of the last trading week. The decline in the instrument proceeds against the background of some strengthening of USD, which reacts to the actions of Donald Trump. Earlier, the US president extended the payment of an increased unemployment benefit as a temporary support measure, as Democrats and Republicans have so far failed to reach consensus on negotiations on a new economic aid package. The day before, Trump announced work on a bill that provides for a reduction in the capital gains tax, which also triggered the emergence of a short-term impulse for growth. The pressure on AUD on Wednesday is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac Consumer Confidence in August showed a sharp decline of 9.5% after falling by 6.1% in the previous month. Wage Price Index in Q2 2020 slowed down from +0.5% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ, which was worse than market expectations at +0.3% QoQ. USD/JPY USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, updating the local highs of July 24. The day before, the instrument rose sharply in response to a number of optimistic news from the US. In particular, investors welcomed Donald Trump's new initiative to reduce some of the taxes for businesses, and also took a lead from the stabilization of the dynamics of the incidence of COVID-19 in the USA. USD was also supported by the data on producer inflation from the USA. Producer Price Index excluding Food & Energy in July increased by 0.5% MoM and 0.3% YoY, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations of 0.1% MoM and 0.0% YoY. Today American investors await the publication of the July statistics on consumer inflation, as well as the release of Monthly Budget Statement in the USA. XAU/USD Gold prices are showing a steady decline, retreating from record highs. The day before, the instrument fell by more than 3.5% in response to the emergence of new legislative initiatives from US President Donald Trump, who proposed to lower the capital gains tax. In addition, expectations of progress in the discussion of a new economic aid package in the US Congress contributed to the decline in the value of the asset. Finally, the markets have widely discussed the statement of President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, who announced the registration of the world's first vaccine against COVID-19, called Sputnik V. It is expected that the mass production of the new vaccine may begin in September, but the drug will enter civilian circulation only closer to the end of all testing stages, that is, in January 2021.
  3. Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is showing insignificant growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after falling the day before. USD was supported on Monday by decrees signed by President Donald Trump last weekend. Among other things, Trump has temporarily extended the payment of increased unemployment benefits to American citizens while lawmakers in Congress fail to agree on a new stimulus package. At the same time, the new benefit was revised downward from USD 600 to USD 400, and a quarter of the amount will have to be covered from the state budgets. European investors are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics on economic sentiment from ZEW today. The indicators are predicted to show a slight increase in August; however, noticeable growth of EUR because of these data is unlikely. GBP/USD GBP shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed yesterday. The instrument is still trying to win back the losses of last Friday; however, the buying activity for GBP remains at a rather low level, as investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. Today traders are focused on the data on the UK labor market for June and July. Claimant Count in July rose sharply by 94.4K after falling by 28.1K last month. ILO Unemployment Rate remained at the level of 3.9% (3M) with the forecast of growth to 4.2% (3M). NZD/USD NZD is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a sharp decline at the end of last trading week, when the instrument responded to the publication of the US labor market report for July. Macroeconomic statistics from China provide some support to the instrument, while the continuing geopolitical tensions between the USA and China, as well as the uncertain situation around the COVID-19 pandemic contribute to the development of multidirectional dynamics. Macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand released tonight did not have a noticeable effect on the instrument. Electronic Card Retail Sales in July decreased from 15.6% MoM to 1.1% MoM, which turned out to be significantly worse than the expected 13.8% MoM. At the same time, in annual terms, the indicator increased from 8% YoY to 11.4% YoY. New Zealand investors are focused on the RBNZ meeting on interest rates, which will take place on Wednesday. Analysts do not expect changes in the vector of monetary policy at the moment. USD/JPY USD has shown moderate gains against JPY during this morning session, trying to consolidate above 106.00 again. USD is supported by the initiatives of Donald Trump, who signed several decrees aimed at stimulating the economy, without waiting for the resolution of all controversial issues in the American Congress. According to the signed order, the government will resume the payment of increased unemployment benefits of USD 400, which will be partially funded from the budget of specific states. The move, according to analysts, will not only help ease the debt burden of American citizens, but will also allow Trump to increase his popularity among voters ahead of the presidential elections this fall. XAU/USD Gold prices are declining during today's Asian trading session, continuing the development of the corrective impulse that formed at the end of the last trading week, when the instrument retreated from its record highs. Moderate growth of USD in response to the signing by Donald Trump of a number of decrees, in particular, on the resumption of the payment of increased unemployment benefits, contributed to the maintenance of the "bearish" dynamics on the instrument yesterday. In turn, the further escalation of tensions between the USA and China contributed to the strengthening of gold, which remains in high demand as a safe-haven asset.
  4. XAG/USD: prices update record highs Current trend Silver prices are actively climbing during today's morning trading, updating record highs since April 2013 and trying to consolidate above the level of 27.00. A new rally for the instrument was due to the weak macroeconomic publications from ADP on employment in the US, which could lead to a slowdown in the recovery of the American economy. In turn, some support for USD is provided by positive expectations regarding the formation of a new package of measures to support the US economy in Congress by the end of this week. A vote for the introduction of new stimulus measures may take place as early as next week. Another support factor for USD is noticeable improvement in the situation with the dynamics of the coronavirus incidence in the USA, as well as a number of promising forecasts for the development of a vaccine against COVID-19 in the near future. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding; however, it fails to catch the development of "bullish" sentiments. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic retains steady upward direction, but is located near its highs, which indicates overbought instrument in the ultra-short term. Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified. Resistance levels: 28.00, 28.70. Support levels: 27.00, 26.17, 24.92, 24.00.
  5. WTI Crude Oil: oil prices show flat dynamics Current trend WTI crude oil prices are trading flat after a moderate increase at the beginning of the week. The growth of quotations on Monday was caused by rather positive statistics on the corresponding sectors of the economy in Europe and Asia Pacific region. In turn, the further rising of the instrument was restrained by fears of an increase in the incidence of COVID-19, as well as growing supply of oil at the market. Since August, the volume of oil production cuts by OPEC+ members has been decreasing from the previously determined 9.7M barrels per day to the current 7.7M barrels. Today, investors are focused on the publication of the API report on oil reserves for the week ending July 31. The previous report showed a sharp decline of 6.829M barrels. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands on the daily chart have been showing lateral trend for a long time. The price range almost does not change; however, it is quite consistent with the observed dynamics in the market. The MACD indicator is going down, maintaining a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, on the other hand, is showing moderate growth in response to the emergence of “bullish” trend on Monday. To open new trading positions, one should wait until the signals from technical indicators are clarified. Resistance levels: 41.00, 41.41, 42.00, 42.31. Support levels: 40.00, 39.15, 38.47, 38.00.
  6. Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows flat dynamics of trading during today's Asian session, consolidating after the corrective decline in the instrument at the end of last week. On Friday, after updating record highs since May 2018, EUR fell sharply, which was mainly due to technical factors of taking long profits ahead of the weekend. Additional pressure on EUR positions was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of GDP in the euro zone for Q2 2020. In quarterly terms, GDP showed a 12.1% QoQ decline after a 3.6% QoQ contraction in the prior period. The indicator came out close to its forecasts at –12% QoQ. In annual terms, the decline in GDP in the euro area amounted to 15% YoY, which turned out to be slightly worse than analysts' expectations at the level of –14.5% YoY. In turn, data on consumer inflation in the euro area for July contributed to the strengthening of EUR. Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% YoY, accelerating from the previous value of 0.3% YoY. Experts expected a slowdown to 0.2% YoY. GBP/USD GBP demonstrates moderate gains against USD again during today's morning session, returning to the local highs, updated at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.10% and is testing the level of 1.3100 for a breakout. The "bullish" activity for the instrument is supported by the weakness of USD, while the fundamental picture for GBP remains unchanged. Investors remain concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the EU and the UK before the transition deadline at the end of the year. In addition, the UK is showing alarming statistics on the incidence of coronavirus, which puts plans to lift quarantine restrictions in the country into question. At the end of last week, Prime Minister Boris Johnson noted that further lifting of restrictions will inevitably lead to an increase of incidence. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on business activity in the US and UK Manufacturing sector for July. AUD/USD AUD is marginally strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a strong decline late last week as the instrument retreated from its record highs since February 2019. A certain support for AUD is provided by the macroeconomic statistics from Australia, published today. AiG Manufacturing index went up from 51.5 to 53.5 points in July. In the manufacturing sector, according to the Commonwealth Bank, activity rose from 53.4 to 54 points, better than the neutral forecasts. Inflation data from TD Securities in July showed an increase of 0.9% MoM and 1.3% YoY, which turned out to be significantly better than the data for the previous period: +0.6% MoM and +0.7% YoY. Chinese statistics also provided additional support to the instrument. Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 52.8 in July, beating market forecasts of 51.3. USD/JPY USD is showing ambiguous trading dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, trying to develop corrective growth, the momentum for which was formed at the end of last week. Strengthening of USD positions is associated with technical factors, while there are still not many fundamental reasons for USD growth. Friday's statistics from the US again turned out to be heterogeneous, and the greatest support for USD was provided only by the Chicago PMI, which in July rose sharply from 36.6 to 51.9 points, which turned out to be better than expected by 43.9 points. JPY finds some support among macroeconomic publications from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 42.6 to 45.2 points with a neutral forecast. At the same time, the data also reflected the fall of the Japanese economy by 0.6% QoQ and 2.2% YoY in Q2 2020, which, however, did not come as a surprise. XAU/USD Gold prices are showing ambiguous dynamics during today's morning session, trading near record highs and a psychological level of 2000.00. The demand for the asset remains high against the background of continuing uncertainty in the market, as well as the progressive weakness of USD. The risks associated with the coronavirus pandemic are not going away and are likely to remain relevant until a resistant vaccine emerges and a widespread vaccination campaign begins. There are also geopolitical tensions on the market associated with the aggravation of relations between the United States and China. The parties continue to exchange mutual sanctions complicating the process of global economic recovery. Domestic political situation in the United States should be taken into account as well. In November, the US presidential election is to take place, which will have to be held in an environment of increased epidemiological risks.
  7. XAU/USD: general review Current trend Gold prices are showing moderate gains again in trading in today's Asian session, recovering from the correctional decline the day before. On Thursday, the instrument retreated from its record highs and interrupted the historic rally to the level of 2000.00 amid technical factors and corrective sentiment on the US stock markets. In turn, with the opening of the American trading session on Thursday, the pressure on USD began to increase after the publication of disappointing statistics on the annual dynamics of US GDP for Q2 2020. Political risks also intensified after Donald Trump posted a proposal on his Twitter to postpone the presidential elections in the USA due to the difficult epidemiological situation in the country. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is widening from above, clearing the way for the "bulls" to new all-time highs and the target level of 2000.00. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). For a long time now, Stochastic has been near its highs, trying to reverse into a downward plane. As before, the indicator points at the greatly overbought instrument in the ultra-short term. It is necessary to wait for clarification of the situation in the market to open new positions. Some of the long positions should be kept for some time. Resistance levels: 1980.84, 2000.00. Support levels: 1955.00, 1935.00, 1910.00, 1895.06.
  8. EUR/USD: EUR is corrected Current trend EUR is showing flat dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, trading near record highs updated the day before. The positions of USD came under pressure again yesterday after the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, and at the follow-up press conference, the Chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, promised to continue using the full range of available instruments to support the national economy. In his speech, Powell also mentioned the volatile labor market, noting that many Americans have yet to lose their jobs. European investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from Germany and the eurozone today. Among other things, analysts expect the release of July data on the labor market and the dynamics of consumer inflation in Germany. In addition, data on German GDP for Q2 2020 will be published. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands, freeing a path to new record highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its highs, is trying to reverse downwards, signaling in favor of the development of corrective decline in the ultra-short term. The "bearish" trend is likely to appear at the end of the trading week. Resistance levels: 1.1804, 1.1850, 1.1900. Support levels: 1.1723, 1.1657, 1.1600, 1.1546.
  9. Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is again showing gains against USD during today's Asian session, returning to previous record highs, updated at the end of last week. Market activity remains moderate as investors are in no rush ahead of the publication of minutes from the US Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Wednesday. Analysts do not expect any significant changes in the vector of monetary policy; however, the comments of officials are more important today than ever. There is a possibility that the Fed representatives will speak out on adjusting the target levels for inflation, given the alarming situation in the economy, as well as touch on the prospects for programs to support the economy, which are now being actively discussed in the Senate. Interesting statistics from Europe will appear only on Thursday, when Germany will report on the dynamics of GDP for Q2 2020, as well as publish the July statistics on unemployment and consumer inflation. GBP/USD GBP is showing ambiguous trading during today's morning session, close to the highs updated the day before. GBP retains a fairly confident "bullish" trend; however investors prefer to wait for the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. During the day, a block of macroeconomic statistics will be released in the UK, which, however, is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on the instrument's dynamics. One way or another, analysts expect the publication of the number of Mortgage Approvals in June (their number should increase by 33.9K). In addition, Consumer Credit data will be presented, as well as Net Lending to Individuals, which in May showed a decrease of 3.4B pounds. AUD/USD AUD has seen marginally gains against USD during today's Asian session, trading near record highs revised a week ago. Buying activity on the instrument is constrained by expectations of the publication of the minutes of the two-day Fed meeting, which, as analysts hope, will clarify the prospects for monetary policy in the near future. The macroeconomic statistics released in Australia today puts additional pressure on the instrument. Trimmed Mean CPI in Q2 2020 decreased by 0.1% QoQ after growing by 0.5% QoQ over the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.1% QoQ. At the same time, Consumer Price Index in Q2 2020 collapsed by 1.9% QoQ after rising by 0.3% QoQ earlier. Analysts expected a decrease of 2% QoQ. USD/JPY USD shows flat dynamics of trading during today's morning session, remaining near the local lows since mid-March, updated the day before. USD remains under significant pressure amid growing uncertainty associated with increased political risks, as well as the further spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. Today, the activity of "bears" is somewhat reduced, which is associated with the expectation of the publication of the Fed meeting minutes. Analysts do not expect changes in the key interest rate, but they are eager to hear the comments of officials, since at present the country is clearly not coping with the number of economic challenges it faces. Interesting statistics from Japan will appear only on Thursday, when June data on the dynamics of Retail Sales and the volume of investments in the Japanese economy over the past few weeks are released. XAU/USD Gold prices are consolidating during today's Asian trading, retreating from record highs, updated the day before. The emergence of corrective dynamics from historical highs is associated with the expectation of the publication of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. In addition, technical factors also contribute to the development of the "bearish" trend, as the instrument has been actively increasing for eight trading sessions in a row. In turn, gold is still feeling significant support in the market. The increasing geopolitical risks, the unstable state of the American economy, as well as high uncertainty about the COVID-19 epidemic are pushing the asset to become a new reserve currency.
  10. Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from record highs updated the day before. At the beginning of the week, the instrument showed the strongest growth in the past few months, taking advantage of the weakness of USD, which is in anxious anticipation of the results of the Fed's meeting, which will be held on July 28 and 29. In addition, investors fear the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic in the country, which could disrupt the government's plans for the pace of recovery of the national economy. In turn, yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from Germany supported EUR. German IFO Business Climate Index rose from 86.3 to 90.5 points in July, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 89.3 points. IFO Current Assessment for the same period rose from 81.3 to 84.5 points, while the forecast assumed an increase in the indicator to 85 points. IFO Expectations in July rose sharply from 91.6 to 97 points, exceeding forecasts of 93.7 points. GBP/USD GBP is correcting against USD during today's morning trading, retreating from the March highs, updated the day before. Technical factors contribute to the decline in the instrument, as USD remains strongly oversold. In addition, investors are fixing their profits ahead of the publication of the results of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday and the release of macroeconomic statistics from the US and Europe on Thursday. There will be not much UK data this week, so investors are likely to focus on US statistics. The focus will remain only on the negotiations between the UK and the EU. Earlier it was reported that the EU doubts the possibility of concluding a free trade agreement with the UK this year. London is somewhat more optimistic, but it is worth noting that the negotiation process is rather complicated. NZD/USD NZD declines against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from annual highs updated at the opening. The instrument loses about 0.40%, testing the level of 0.6650 for a breakdown. The emergence of corrective dynamics is facilitated by the growth of the oversold USD; however, fundamental factors are still playing against the American currency. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics on Durable Goods Orders in the United States turned out to be quite good, but failed to provoke a noticeable rise in USD. The volume of orders in June slowed down from +15.1% to +7.3%, which came out close to the market forecasts at +7.2%. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft rose by 3.3% in June, after increasing by 1.6% last month. Investors expected an increase of 2.3%. USD/JPY USD is showing corrective growth against JPY during today's morning session, retreating from the local lows, updated at the beginning of the week. Technical factors contribute to the growth of USD, while investors are waiting for the publication of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. In addition, the US is to publish Q2 2020 annual GDP statistics on Thursday. The US economy is expected to show a record 34% YoY decline after contracting by 5% in Q1. The statistics from Japan published on Monday also contribute to the development of the uptrend for the instrument. Coincident Index in May fell from 80.1 to 73.4 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 74.6 points. Leading Economic Index for the same period, on the contrary, rose from 77.7 to 78.4 points, but also turned out to be weaker than its forecasts of 79.3 points. XAU/USD Gold prices are showing ambiguous dynamics today, staying in the area of record highs, updated the day before. It should be noted that the instrument showed a sharp rise at the opening of today's session; however, the "bulls" retreated very quickly under the pressure of the correcting USD. The escalating conflict between the United States and China continues to provide strong support for gold. The parties continue to exchange mutual sanctions, which practically put an end to all previously reached trade agreements. In addition, the US economy remains in dire straits amid the raging COVID-19 epidemic in the country. This week, the US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting and important macroeconomic indicators for the US economy will be released as well.
  11. Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is actively rising against USD during today's Asian session, hitting record highs since September 2018. The instrument is gaining about 0.55% and is trying to consolidate above the next resistance at 1.1700. EUR is supported by strong macroeconomic statistics on business activity from the eurozone countries, published last Friday. German Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 45.2 to 50 points, which was better than expectations. Services PMI in Germany jumped from 47.3 to 56.7 points against the forecast of growth only to 50.5 points. Composite PMI rose from 47 to 55.5 points in July, also beating its forecasts of 50.3 points. In the euro area, the Composite PMI consolidated above the 50-point mark, indicating a gradual recovery in the European economy after the crisis. At the beginning of the week, the European investors are focused on the report on business climate in Germany from IFO. Also, German Bundesbank Monthly Report is expected during the day. GBP/USD GBP strengthens against USD during today's morning trading, updating its highs since March 11. "Bullish" activity for the instrument is facilitated by the weak positions of USD. In turn, GBP was supported by the upbeat macroeconomic statistics from Great Britain released last Friday. Retail Sales in June grew by 13.9% MoM after an increase of 12.3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a slowdown in the index to 8% MoM. Markit Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 50.1 to 53.6 points, exceeding market forecasts of 52 points. Markit Services PMI rose from 47.1 to 56.6 points, which also turned out to be better than expectations of 51.1 points. AUD/USD AUD is recovering against USD during this morning session, again approaching record highs of July 22. The growth of the instrument proceeds against the background of a large-scale decline in USD at the beginning of the new week, practically across the entire spectrum of the market. In turn, AUD is supported by a noticeable increase in demand for it as a carry-trading currency, as well as by good macroeconomic statistics on business activity for July published on Friday. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI rose from 53.1 to 58.5 points, beating market expectations at 53.2 points. A similar index in the manufacturing sector rose from 51.2 to 53.4 points, which fell slightly short of the expected values of 53.6 points. Today, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of durable goods orders in June. Interesting data from Australia will appear only on Wednesday, when the quarterly statistics on consumer inflation is released. USD/JPY USD is steadily declining against JPY during today's Asian trading, continuing to develop a strong "bearish" momentum that formed at the end of the last trading week. The instrument loses about 0.50% and is trying to consolidate below 105.50. USD remains under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics and growing fears about the high level of uncertainty in the market. Friday's US data reflected a rise in the Markit Services PMI in July from 47.9 to 49.6 points, while the forecast was for an increase to 51 points. Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 49.8 to 51.3 points, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 51.5 points. Today, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of durable goods orders in June. Analysts do not expect strong data to emerge, so USD may come under pressure again. XAU/USD Gold prices are actively growing during today's Asian session, renewing their record highs. The psychological level of 1900.00 was reached at the end of last week, but on Monday the instrument demonstrates the most active dynamics over the past few months. Gold is still supported by a high level of market uncertainty. The alarming situation with the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus in the United States does not allow USD to start correction, while the worsening geopolitical risks between the USA and China is becoming a new driver for the growth of the instrument.
  12. Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, trading near record highs updated the day before. EUR ends the week with strong gains, boosted by the decision of European leaders to create a EUR 750 billion economic recovery fund. Meanwhile, USD remains under pressure amid growing statistics on the incidence of coronavirus, and also reacts negatively to difficulties in discussing a new aid package for the US economy in the Senate. Today, European investors are focused on business activity statistics from Markit in the euro area. It is expected that the main indicators will be able to consolidate above the psychological level of 50 points, which will additionally support EUR. GBP/USD GBP is trading against USD in both directions during today's Asian session, updating local highs since June 10. Further growth of the instrument is limited by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In addition, GBP is under pressure from uncertain prospects regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the UK and the EU. At the same time, the weakness of USD allows the "bulls" to feel relatively free. The report on jobless claims released in the US yesterday again disappointed investors, strengthening the idea of the urgent need for a new stage of stimulating the American economy. Today, investors are focused on the statistics on Retail Sales in the UK for June. Also during the day, the data on the level of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector from Markit for July will be released. AUD/USD AUD has shown slight growth against USD during this morning session, once again trying to consolidate above 0.7100. The instrument is supported moderately by the Australian business activity statistics from Commonwealth Bank. Services PMI rose sharply from 53 to 58.5 points in July, which was significantly better than market expectations of 53.2 points. Manufacturing PMI for the same period increased from 51.2 to 53.4 points, but did not reach the expected value of 53.6 points. Composite PMI in July rose from 52.7 to 57.9 points. After the American trading session opens, the attention of investors will shift to the data on business activity from the US, where analysts also expect optimistic results. USD/JPY USD is actively falling against JPY during today's Asian session. The instrument lost about 0.40%, testing the level of 106.40 for a breakdown. Investors are actively selling USD again after the publication of disappointing labor market statistics on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 17 increased from +1.307M to +1.416M, which was worse than market expectations of 1.300M. Meanwhile, Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending July 10 slowed from +17.304M to +16.197M, while the forecast did not imply a decrease in the indicator below 17M. XAU/USD Gold prices are consolidating during today's trading, slightly retreating from record highs, once again updated the day before. The instrument is supported by a further increase in tensions between the United States and China, which threatens to cancel out all the success achieved by the countries earlier. In addition, the demand for gold remains high amid active discussions on new stimulus measures in the US economy. Yesterday's report on jobless claims dynamics in the US only strengthened the belief in the need for such measures, but investors fear that the political forces in the Senate will not be able to agree quickly.
  13. EUR/USD: EUR maintains strong growth Current trend EUR is trading flat against USD today, consolidating after another “bullish” surge the day before, which led to the renewal of record highs since October 2018. EUR is supported by the fact that a European economic recovery fund worth EUR 750 billion has been approved. A breakthrough on this issue looks especially attractive against the backdrop of difficult negotiations on the introduction of new economic incentives in the USA. No one expected that Democrats and Republicans would be able to agree quickly, but the problem is that only a little more than a week remains until the end of the current plan to support the American economy. Today European investors are focused on the speech of the Vice President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, as well as the publication of the July data on the dynamics of the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding, but it fails to catch the development of “bullish” trend at the moment. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its highs, reversed into the horizontal plane indicating overbought EUR in the ultra-short term. Existing long positions should be kept in the short and/or ultra-short term until the signals from technical indicators clear up. Resistance levels: 1.1600, 1.1657, 1.1700. Support levels: 1.1546, 1.1500, 1.1460, 1.1422.
  14. Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is trading with an uptrend against USD during today's Asian session, hitting record highs since January 2019. Until now, EUR has shown three "bullish" trading sessions, which have led the instrument to new record highs. The growth of optimism was triggered by the expectations of investors regarding the creation of a fund to help the European economy in the amount of EUR 750 billion. After lengthy discussions, the long-awaited plan was approved by the European leaders, and the market was even more inspired, especially given the high risks of a further increase in the incidence of COVID-19. Today, investors are focused on the statistics on the dynamics of Existing Home Sales in the United States. Interesting data from Europe will appear only towards the end of the week. On Friday, consolidated statistics on business activity in the eurozone from Markit for July is expected to be released. GBP/USD GBP shows the flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's morning session. The instrument is retreating from its monthly highs, updated the day before, without the support of the previous drivers. Approval of the European economic support program in the amount of EUR 750 billion does not provide almost any support to GBP. In turn, the "bullish" activity on the instrument has noticeably decreased after the information that the UK and the EU are unlikely to have time to agree on a trade agreement before the end of the summer appeared at the market. Analysts believe that the process could drag on until the end of the year, when the Brexit transition deadline expires. Today investors do not expect interesting drivers from the UK to appear, and therefore flat dynamics may continue. On Thursday, investors await the publication of a report from the Confederation of British Industrialists on the dynamics of industrial orders for July. In addition, on this day, the representative of the Bank of England Jonathan Haskel will speak. NZD/USD NZD remains upward versus USD during today's Asian session. The instrument adds about 0.13% and is about to test the level of 0.6650 for a breakout. Some support for NZD is coming from the excitement in the market following the long-awaited approval of EUR 750 billion European economic recovery fund. In addition, the previous drivers remain in effect. USD is under noticeable pressure amid the deteriorating situation with the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus in the United States. Also, the US authorities intend to obtain approval of a new package of economic stimuli; however, given the disagreements prevailing between the chambers of Congress, one cannot expect a quick solution. The macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand published yesterday exerted moderate pressure on NZD. New Zealand's Global Dairy Trade Price Index declined by 0.7% MoM after rising by 8.3% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth of 3.9% MoM. USD/JPY USD is strengthening against JPY during today's Asian trading, correcting after a strong decline the day before. The "bearish" dynamics on Tuesday was facilitated by good statistics on consumer inflation in Japan, as well as the active growth of EUR on the market in response to the approval of the creation of the European economic recovery fund in the amount of EUR 750 billion. Today, American investors expect the publication of data on the dynamics of Existing Home Sales. After extremely disappointing May data, analysts expect strong sales growth (more than 20%) in June, which may provide significant support to USD. Markets in Japan are closed today due to a national holiday. XAU/USD Gold prices are showing strong growth during today's Asian session, once again updating multi-year highs. This time, the instrument managed to rise above the level of 1865.00; however, gold has not yet been able to consolidate at new highs. A weak USD supports the instrument. Investors expect new stimulus measures from the US government, and are also worried when analyzing the statistics on the incidence of coronavirus in the world. Some pressure on the instrument at the beginning of the week is exerted by the growth on stock exchanges, provoked by the approval of the idea of creating a fund for the recovery of the European economy in the amount of EUR 750 billion.
  15. Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is falling against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs of March 10, updated at the beginning of this trading week. Uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Germany put some pressure on EUR yesterday. Producer Price Index in Germany in June showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis, while analysts had expected growth in manufacturing inflation by 0.2% MoM. On an annualized basis, the indicator decreased by 1.8% YoY after falling by 2.2% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of –1.5% YoY. In turn, USD remains under pressure amid decisions on new measures to support the US economy, which are due later this week. GBP/USD GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating near new local highs and the level of 1.2650, which were renewed thanks to the activity of the "bulls" the day before. A confident uptrend on the instrument was facilitated by technical factors, as well as by the weakness of USD. GBP, in turn, looks good enough against the background of the latest macroeconomic statistics, as well as moderate optimism about Brexit and the accompanying trade agreement between the UK and the EU. Today British investors are awaiting the publication of information on the placement of 30-year government bonds. AUD/USD AUD is showing moderate growth during today's morning trading session, trying to consolidate above the important resistance at 0.7000. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the minutes of the RBA meeting, as well as the speech of the Governor of the regulator Philip Lowe. The bank Governor began his speech with a description of a rather difficult situation in the labor market, which was sharply aggravated against the backdrop of the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. Toward the end of his speech, Lowe tried to cheer up investors and noted that Australia coped with the challenges of the new time much better than many countries and remained open to investment and innovation. USD/JPY USD has shown moderate gains against JPY during today's Asian session, aiming to consolidate above 107.30. A number of technical factors contribute to the growth of the instrument, as well as restrained optimism about the coronavirus vaccine under development. Meanwhile, JPY gets moderate support from macroeconomic publications from Japan on Tuesday. The National Consumer Price Index in June showed an increase of 0.1% YoY, maintaining the dynamics of the previous month. Analysts had expected the indicator to slow down to zero. National CPI excluding Food and Energy increased by 0.4% YoY over the same period, which also turned out to be slightly better than analysts' expectations of +0.3% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices are trading flat during today's Asian session, close to multi-year highs, which are constantly updated amid uncertain market conditions. Traders are seriously concerned about the continuing rise in the global incidence of coronavirus. In addition, investors expect the adoption of new measures stimulating economy by the world's leading regulators. In particular, the US government is expected to agree on a new package of assistance to the American economy this week, and the EU, meanwhile, managed to agree on the creation of a recovery fund in the amount of EUR 750B.
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