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EUR/JPY Daily Analytics 06:51 15.02.2018 Recommendation: BUY 133.40 SL 132.85 TP1 134.40 TP2 135.40 On the daily chart, EUR/JPY reached 88.6% target of a “Shark” pattern. As a result, risks of a pullback increased. A pin bar increases the risks of a correction. Its high forms resistance at 133.40. To continue the decline to 113% target of the “Shark” patterns, bears need to pull the euro to February low. On H1, EUR/JPY formed two bars with lower bottom wicks. It means that bulls are ready to counterattack. They want to trigger a “Shark” pattern with a target of 88.6%. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-jpy-euro-is-grabbing-for-a-pin-bar-6831?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

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Important economic releases February 14 at 15:30 MT time, American Statistical Services will deliver Inflation data, which will be important for the US dollar. Consumer price index will be counted 2 times: as CPI and core CPI (excluding food and energy). These are key inflation gauges that are closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. The data shows the economic activity of the US population. Actual numbers that are better than forecast ones will lead the US dollar to the upside. Follow this event at the FBS Economic Calendar https://goo.gl/WufRvu

DOES THE VALENTINE’S DAY REALLY AFFECT THE FOREX MARKET? 10:41 14.02.2018 The Valentine’s Day is one of the days during a year that brings the biggest amount of money to an economy. An interesting fact is that for this holiday people buy presents not only for their lovers but for families and friends as well. That is why consumer spending increases a lot. This year US consumers are expected to contribute to the economy nearly $19.6 billion, even more than last year record of $18.6. It is an important indicator because consumer spending is the largest part of GDP, it contains nearly 70% of the output. Valentine’s Day has an influence on markets as well. The five best-selling gifts are candy, greeting cards, evening out, flowers and jewelry. It means that these industries will be more volatile before and during the February 14. Prices and demand significantly increase in these markets. For example, Japanese chocolate industry gets more than half of its $5 billion in annual sales on Valentine’s Day. Countries, where these industries are more developed, will get the higher profit on the holiday. These profits will contribute to retail sales and consumer spending data for February. At the same time, if we look at the dynamics of stock indexes during the Valentine day itself, the picture will not be as rosy. It turns out that since 1928 the S&P 500 has closed up on just 40% of Valentine’s Days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen on 14 February just 43% of the time. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but maybe traders just more eager to spend time with their loved ones than to buy stocks. Or maybe this time stocks will get luckier? Making a conclusion, we can say that the Valentine’s Day has an impact on markets and Forex market as well. The huge money contribution has a positive influence on a domestic economy. Countries with more developed industries, that are popular on Valentine’s Day, have higher profit. This effect will have a medium-term impact on the market. However, stock markets depreciate on the day of love. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/does-the-valentine%E2%80%99s-day-really-affect-the-forex-market-6811

GBP/USD Daily analytics 10:19 14.02.2018 There's a bearish "Pennant", so the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.3741. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944. The market is consolidating between the Moving Averages. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.3763 - 1.3741. This area could be a departure point for a bullish price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-bearish-pennant-6805

EUR/USD Daily Analytics 10:17 14.02.2018 The main trend is still bullish. Also, there's a "Triple Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2405 - 1.2434 in the short term. There's a confirmed "Double Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the coming hours. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-triple-bottom-pattern-6804

EUR/USD: "TRIPLE BOTTOM" PATTERN 10:17 14.02.2018 The main trend is still bullish. Also, there's a "Triple Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2405 - 1.2434 in the short term. There's a confirmed "Double Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the coming hours. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement. More: https://goo.gl/RHhfH8

THE US DOLLAR WEAKNESS AHEAD OF CPI DATA 08:37 14.02.2018 Today we expect the CPI and Retail Sales data at 15:30 MT time. If we look at charts, the greenback is depreciating against all currencies. Why is it happening with the US dollar and what should we expect from the inflation data? Let’s look at some forecasts. Nomura predicts the deceleration of the core inflation in January. They declare monthly core CPI at 0.2% compared to the December one of 0.3%. Such reduction will lead to the annual core CPI decrease by 0.1 percentage point from 1.8% in December to 1.7% in January. Talking about the headline CPI data, they expect an increase from 0.1% to 0.4% in monthly figures and the rise of the annual to 2.0%. Such growth is based on higher gasoline prices and firm growth of food prices. RBC has almost the same forecast as Nomura about the core and headline CPI. Moreover, RBC does not anticipate any real momentum until the second quarter of 2018. They expect that negative effects from the last year will roll off the year calculation only by that time. The annual headline inflation will be able to come closer to 3% in the third quarter. The forecast of Barclay does not differ from the previous ones a lot. They expect the monthly core level to be at 0.2% and the annual one at 1.6%. The monthly headline inflation will increase by 0.4%, the annual by 1.9%. The average forecast of the main economic experts declares the slight decrease of the monthly data of the core CPI growth from 0.3% to 0.2%. The headline CPI is anticipated to rise by 0.2 percentage points (0.1% to 0.3%) m/m. Let’s sum up. The rise of inflation is important for the US dollar. If the CPI is higher, it is more likely that the Fed will raise interest rates. An increase of the interest rates always leads to the strengthening of a domestic currency, so the greenback will have chances to strengthen its positions. But the data is mixed, we expect the fall of the core CPI growth and the rise of the headline CPI at the same time. However, we can say that the forecasts are not negative. The fall is just by 0.1 percentage points. The annual headline CPI forecast is still below 2%, but not too much lower. So why the dollar is weakening a lot? The reason can be hidden in the lack of beliefs in the strong dollar. The market is used to the weak greenback, that is why every negative data can cause its further fall. Another reason is the strengthening of the global equity markets after the great selloff. Furthermore, US 10-year yields are now down to lows on the day, as Treasuries are more bid on the day. So the greenback cannot find a support in any way. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/the-us-dollar-weakness-ahead-of-cpi-data-6802

GBP/USD Daily Analytics 07:33 14.02.2018 Recommendations: SELL 1.415 SL 1.4205 TP1 1.405 TP2 1.3950 SELL 1.3795 SL 1.3850 TP1 1.3695 TP2 1.3560 On the daily chart, GBP/USD bulls managed to defend the important level of 1.3830 and want to consolidate in the 1.3800-1.4150 area. If the pair renews February low, the risks of it going to 88.6% target of the “Bat” pattern will increase. On H1, GBP/USD bulls try to form “Wolfe waves”. If they manage to do it, the pound may rise to the upper border of the descending channel at $1.41-1.4150. The pullback to the downside will be a selling signal. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-pound-got-in-the-corner-6800

GBP/USD: BEARISH "PENNANT" 10:19 14.02.2018 There's a bearish "Pennant", so the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.3741. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944. The market is consolidating between the Moving Averages. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.3763 - 1.3741. This area could be a departure point for a bullish price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944. More: https://goo.gl/Kt1hY7

USD/CHF Daily Analytics 07:25 14.02.2018 Recommendations: BUY 0.9465 SL 0.941 TP 0.955 TP2 0.9655 SELL 0.926 SL 0.9315 TP1 0.916 TP2 0.906 TP3 0.9015 On the daily chart of USD/CHF, the inability of bulls to keep the pair above 0.9410 points at their weakness. Return to correction low at 0.9465 will allow us to talk about the “Head and Shoulders” pattern. To continue the decline the pair has to break below January low. On H1, USD/CHF is forming “Spike and ledge” and “Bat”. To continue the decline, bears need to pull the dollar below support at 0.93 and 0.9280. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-chf-franc-aims-on-a-record-6799?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

AUD/USD Daily Analytics 07:00 14.02.2018 Technical levels: support – 0.7750, 0.7815; resistance – 0.7880 Trade recommendations: Sell — 0.7870/80; SL — 0.7900; TP1 — 0.7815; TP2 — 0.7750. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market returned to bottom border of the Cloud. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud-usd-aussie-has-grown-to-cloud-6797?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

GBP/USD Daily Analytics 06:59 14.02.2018 Technical levels: support – 1.3770; resistance – 1.3900. Trade recommendations: Sell — 1.3880; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3770; TP2 — 1.3680. Buy — 1.3920; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3990; TP2 — 1.4040. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are in the negative area and had returned to SSB’s resistance. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-pound-returned-to-ssb-6796?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

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Safe haven currencies. Overall a safe haven asset is an investment that is expected to strengthen during the periods of uncertainty. Besides other assets, some currencies are sought by investors to limit their exposure to losses when the market is in the state of risk aversion and they are known as Refuge Currencies. Which are these safe currencies? Which factors make investors buy one currency instead of another one? Find out in this article https://goo.gl/zfnEQW and tell us what currency do you think is the safest?

USD/JPY Daily Analytics 12:51 13.02.2018 The nearest "Window", which acted as support, has been broken. Considering that there's no any reversal pattern, the price is likely going to continue declining. The price has been declining since the last "Shooting Star" pattern arrived. If any bullish pattern forms in the coming hours, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-bears-went-through-window-6782?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

EUR/USD Daily Analytics 12:47 13.02.2018 The last "Harami" led to the current upward price movement, so there's no any reversal pattern so far. At the same time, there's an opportunity to have a bearish correction anytime soon. All the Moving Averages have been broken, so the price is moving up. It's likely to have a local correction in the short term, but bulls are likely going to test the upper "Window" afterwards. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-no-any-reversal-pattern-6781?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

GBP/USD Daily Analytics 12:26 13.02.2018 There's a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the price is consolidating. It's likely that the pair is going to reach the closest resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944. If a pullback from these levels happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have a decline in the direction of the next support at 1.3741. The price is consolidating near the 34 Moving Average. It seems like there's a developing "Flag" pattern. So, if a pullback from the nearest resistance at 1.3895 - 1.3944 happens, we could have a bearish price movement towards another support at 1.3795 - 1.3763. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-developing-flag-pattern-6780?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

EUR/USD Daily Analytics 12:23 13.02.2018 The 89 Moving Average has acted as support, so there's "Triple Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed. The main intraday target is the next resistance at 1.2358 - 1.2384. If we have a pullback from this area, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline. Bulls faced with resistance at 1.2334, so we should keep an eye on the 34 Moving Average as the next bearish target. This line could be a departure point for an upward price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.2358 - 1.2384. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-triple-bottom-pattern-6779?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

XAU/USD: GOLD IS IN THE DEAD ZONE 07:19 13.02.2018 Recommendation: SELL $1,3320 SL $1,3470 TP1 $1,3060 TP2 $1,2920 TP3 $1,2730 SELL $1,3430 SL $1,3580 TP1 $1,3060 TP2 $1,2920 TP3 $1,2730 On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls manage to hold off an enemy attack at the $1,306-1,308.50 support. Another test of this area in case of success will increase the possibility of a pullback to $1273 and lower. The condition necessary for the uptrend’s resumption is a convincing break of resistance at $1350 an ounce. On H1, much will depend on bulls’ ability to lead the pair outside of descending channel. More: https://goo.gl/LZBGKZ

GBP/USD: POUND IN NEGATIVE AREA 06:02 13.02.2018 Technical levels: support – 1.3770; resistance – 1.3870. Trade recommendations: Sell — 1.3860/70; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3770; TP2 — 1.3680. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into negative area. More: https://goo.gl/duYFMK

USD/CAD Daily Analytics 07:27 13.02.2018 Recommendations: SELL 1.2490 SL 1.2545 TP1 1.239 TP2 1.229 TP3 1.2190 BUY 1.2665 SL 1.2610 TP1 1.2765 TP2 1.2895 On the daily chart, USD/CAD the inability of bulls to return the pair inside the previous consolidation range of 1.2670-1.2895 was the first signal of their weakness. On H1, if USD/CAD breaks below support at 1.2560 and 1.2490, the risks of the pair getting to 88.6% of the junior “Shark” pattern. To continue rising and reach 88.6% target of the senior “Shark” pattern, the pair has to convincingly rise above resistance at 1.2665. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-cad-loonies-is-caught-by-sharks-6775?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

XAU/USD Daily analytics 07:19 13.02.2018 Recommendation: SELL $1,3320 SL $1,3470 TP1 $1,3060 TP2 $1,2920 TP3 $1,2730 SELL $1,3430 SL $1,3580 TP1 $1,3060 TP2 $1,2920 TP3 $1,2730 On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls manage to hold off an enemy attack at the $1,306-1,308.50 support. Another test of this area in case of success will increase the possibility of a pullback to $1273 and lower. The condition necessary for the uptrend’s resumption is a convincing break of resistance at $1350 an ounce. On H1, much will depend on bulls’ ability to lead the pair outside of descending channel. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/xau-usd-gold-is-in-the-dead-zone-6774?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

GBP/USD Daily Analytics 06:02 13.02.2018 Technical levels: support – 1.3770; resistance – 1.3870. Trade recommendations: Sell — 1.3860/70; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3770; TP2 — 1.3680. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into negative area. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-pound-in-negative-area-6771?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics