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EUR/USD: BEARISH "HARAMI" PATTERN 12:08 20.02.2018 The last bearish "Harami" led to the current upward price movement. There's no any reversal pattern so far, which means the pair is likely going to continue moving down in the short term. All the Moving Averages have been broken, so the market is moving down towards the lower "Window". If any reversal pattern forms little later on, we could have an upward correction. More: https://goo.gl/VoFERT

USD/JPY: PRICE REACHED 21 MOVING AVERAGE 12:09 20.02.2018 There's a bullish "Harami", which has been confirmed, so the price reached the 21 Moving Average. However, there's no any bearish pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the 89 MA. The price has been rising since a "Harami" formed at the last local low. If the 55 Moving Average acts as support, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement. More: https://goo.gl/urrRhk

THE USA VS THE EUROZONE 14:50 20.02.2018 There are a lot of factors that affect currencies markets. They are divided into two groups: unpredictable and predictable events. The first group of unpredictable events includes political news and natural disasters. The second group, that we will consider today, covers economic indicators that are displayed in an economic calendar and released at the exact time. These indicators show the economic growth and health, they cause exact monetary policy decisions of central banks. If traders know how these figures influence the economy and currency, they will know how to trade. We offer you to compare the last data on the main indicators of the two world’s largest economies: American and European. Under the table, you will find an explanation. Let’s start with GDP (Gross Domestic Product). As we can see from the table, the American and Eurozone GDPs are almost similar. It shows the stable growth of economies as GDP is the broadest indicator of the economic health. An important fact is when the GDP rises, the domestic currency’s rate grows. Trade Balance. When deficit happens to the trade balance, it leads to the fall of the domestic currency. Comparing figures of the American and European trade balance, we see a deficit in American balance and profit in European. If you look at currency rates, you will see that the US dollar is depreciating now, when the euro remains firm. Although there are many other factors that influence the currencies, trade balance plays its part. CPI (Consumer price index) and PPI (Product price index) are two of the most important indicators of a monetary policy. CPI estimates an inflation level. And according to this level, a central bank decides which monetary policy to apply. The normal level of inflation is 2%, so all banks aim to reach this figure. If the inflation above 2%, the same when it is much below 2%, it is bad for the currency, the domestic currency depreciates. When we compare the data of the US and the EU, we can see that the CPI data is bigger in the US, it means that inflation is higher there, that is why the Fed has already started tightening its policy and increasing the interest rate. It will positively affect the greenback. The Eurozone CPI is not so high, that is why as we know the ECB is not going to raise the interest rate in the close future. Now it is just tapering quantitative easing. Central bank uses interest rates to control inflation in a country. When inflation is near 2%, a central bank starts to tighten its policy, rising interest rates. It positively affects a domestic currency. When a central bank slows down interest rates, inflation rises, so it is bad for domestic currency. If we look at rates, we can see that the EU has the lowest rate of 0.0%. Such low rate is not good for the euro. Here we can say that the US rate of 1.5% affects the US dollar more positively than 0.0% rate the euro. The lower Unemployment rate data leads to currency’s growth. We can notice that unemployment is in 2 times lower in the US, so it shows the positive growth of the US economy. The Eurozone does not release Core Retail Sales (Retail Sales excluding Autos), that is why you cannot find the second figure in the table. So let’s compare Retail Sales. When retail sales increase, a domestic currency may appreciate. According to RS figures, the US economy has better data, so consumer spending is higher in the US, the economy is growing faster, it is good for the US dollar. However, both figures are negative, that is a bad sign for an economic growth. The last but not least indicator is PMI. It is a survey of manufacturing and service industries that shows the economic health. Looking at the data, we can say that figures are almost similar in both economies. Moreover, figures above 50.0 mean industry expansion, so we can say about expansion in manufacturing and services in America and Europe. Making a conclusion, we can say that the US economy looks better than the European one in more indicators. You can think that despite good indicators, the greenback has been falling for a long time when the euro is steady. But you should not forget about other factors that affect currency rates: positive indicators of other currencies, political issues, and traders’ mood. Tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy can lead to the rise of the US dollar soon. Positive economic indicators support this trend. At the same time, although now the European economy is failing against the American one, experts see a potential. Tapering of quantitative easing may lead to the growth of the inflation that will let increase the interest rate and will support the euro in the future. Good figures of GDP, trade balance and PMI will support the Eurozone’s economy. More: https://goo.gl/As9zmC

TELEGRAM HAS BEATEN RECORDS 13:15 20.02.2018 If you do not know anything about Telegram’s pre-ICO or just forgot, we will give you some key points. Telegram is planning to launch its own blockchain the “Telegram Open Network” (TON). TON will have a lot of advantages such as decentralization, high security, capacity to hold fiat and Telegram’s currency in one wallet, and the main advantage will be the speed and volumes of transactions. At the same time Telegram is going to create its own cryptocurrency with a name “Gram”. The aim of the Telegram was to raise $850 million in a private sale of tokens and $1.15 billion in a public sale. So talks about the blockchain TON and pre-ICO have been existing since the end of 2017. But there were not any comments from the Telegram cofounder Mr. Durov, when just several days ago he broke the silence. According to a document, he submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in January the company had raised $850 million from 81 investors. Their names are hidden, however, there is information of at least two persons. They are co-founders of two Russian companies: Qiwi and Wimm-Bill-Dann, who invested $17 and $10 million, respectively. An interesting fact is that Pavel Durov limited the possible number of investments. Officially it was not the ICO. It can be called as a closed placement of securities in dollars and euros. Investors bought rights to the project's cryptocurrency, so before the launch of tokens, they received securities that implied participation in the future distribution of coins. According to the document, investments will be used only “for the development of the TON Blockchain, the development and maintenance of Telegram Messenger and other purposes” and not for Durov brothers benefit. Talking about future plans, the company is going to raise an additional $1.15 billion via public crowdsale. However, there is not a firm date, all we know that it is planned in March 2018. But when will we see the results of such huge investments? An early minimum viable product (MVP) version of TON is planned to be released in the second quarter of 2018 with the Telegram wallet service in the fourth quarter. All TON services together with tokens “Gram” are scheduled for launch in 2019. Making a conclusion, we can say that the Telegram pre-ICO has already beaten all records. The previous ICO record was set by Tezos that raised $232 million. There were only two more other coin projects that got more than $200 million, they are Filecoin and Bancor. If you want more information about the TON and plans of Telegram, you can read our article More: https://goo.gl/dJxHqm

USD/JPY Daily Analytics 12:09 20.02.2018 There's a bullish "Harami", which has been confirmed, so the price reached the 21 Moving Average. However, there's no any bearish pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the 89 MA. The price has been rising since a "Harami" formed at the last local low. If the 55 Moving Average acts as support, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement. More: https://goo.gl/Vh5yUs

EUR/USD Daily Analytics 12:08 20.02.2018 The last bearish "Harami" led to the current upward price movement. There's no any reversal pattern so far, which means the pair is likely going to continue moving down in the short term. All the Moving Averages have been broken, so the market is moving down towards the lower "Window". If any reversal pattern forms little later on, we could have an upward correction. More: https://goo.gl/ozSL1z

GBP/USD Daily analytics 12:04 20.02.2018 There's a "V-Top" pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average soon. If a pullback from this line arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.4011 - 1.4066. All the Moving Averages have been broken, so the price is declining. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.3875 - 1.3845, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally. More: https://goo.gl/Zkm2NA

EUR/USD Daily analytics 12:02 20.02.2018 The main trend is still bullish, but there's a "V-Top" pattern, so the price is declining. The main intraday target is the nearest support at 1.2332 - 1.2296. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2384 - 1.2434. Bears faced with support at 1.2355, so the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2391 - 1.2415. If a pullback from these levels happens, the market will probably try to achieve another support at 1.2325 - 1.2296. More: https://goo.gl/ajk7Wq

USD/CAD Daily analytics 07:01 20.02.2018 Recommendation: BUY 1.2645 SL 1.259 TP1 1.2745 TP2 1.2850 SELL 1.2510 SL 1.2565 TP1 1.2410 TP2 1.2300 On the daily chart, USD/CAD is at the crossroads. A break of resistance at 1.2645 will give bulls hope for reaching 88.6% and 161.8% of the “Shark” and AB=CD. On the other hand, decline below support at 1.2460 will increase the risk of downtrend’s resumption. On H1 of USD/CAD, a break above diagonal resistance near 1.2510 will allow bears to reach 88.6% target of the “Bat”. More: https://goo.gl/kkhciB

XAU/USD Daily Analytics 06:55 20.02.2018 Recommendations: BUY $1320 SL $1305 TP1 $1350 TP2 $1365 TP3 $1400 BUY $1300 SL $1285 TP1 $1330 TP2 $1350 TP3 $1365 On the daily chart, XAU/USD bulls didn’t manage to overcome significant resistance at $1360-1365 an ounce. As a result, the risks of correction and triggering of the “Bat” pattern increased. At the same time, the trend remains bullish, so pullbacks from diagonal support may be used for buying. On H1 of XAU/USD, the “Shark” pattern is being triggered. Its 88.6% corresponds to the level of $1,323 an ounce. It is in the $1320-1323 convergence area. More: https://goo.gl/SuXbMg

AUD/USD Daily analytics 06:36 20.02.2018 Technical levels: support – 0.7880; resistance – 0.7980 Trade recommendations: Sell — 0.7900; SL — 0.7920; TP1 — 0.7820; TP2 — 0.7770. Buy — 0.7920; SL — 0.7900; TP1 — 0.7980; TP2 — 0.8020. Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrowing channel Tenkan-Kijun; the prices keeps staying inside a Cloud and the channel Tenkan-Kijun. More: https://goo.gl/ixaAj8

USD/JPY Daily Analytics 06:37 20.02.2018 Technical levels: support – 106.00; resistance – 107.15. Trade recommendations: Sell — 107.15; SL — 107.35; TP1 — 106.30; TP2 — 106.00. Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but narrowing channel of the lines; the market is in correctional movement to the Cloud. More: https://goo.gl/8GGrh9

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FBS Video Lessons In this video Tutorial Lesson 10: CALCULATING VALUE OF A PIP You will learn how to multiply the amount of your trade in lots by one pip in a decimal form (0.0001 or 0.01). A lot is given in units of our base currency. You should remember that the US Dollar is a quote currency in many pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD etc.). It means that the exchange rate of the quote currency to USD equals to 1. Learn more https://goo.gl/EtrKHb Do not forget to chose your language from the video's subtitles

AUD/USD IS TIRED OF A CAGE 07:30 19.02.2018 Recommendations: SELL 0.7895 SL 0.795 TP 0.7795 BUY 0.7985 SL 0.793 TP1 0.8055 TP2 0.8095 TP3 0.8185 On the daily chart of AUD/USD, bulls didn’t manage to overcome an important resistance level of 0.7985. As a result, the pair consolidated in the 0.7895-0.7985 area. When the pair gets out of this range, this will determine the further fate of the Aussie. On H1, a break of support at 0.7895 will trigger the “Shark” pattern with a target at 88.6%. On the other hand, successful test of resistance at 0.7985 will increase the risks of a rally. Don’t exclude the possibility of a “Widening wedge”. More: https://goo.gl/tf26yT

WEEKLY FOREX OUTLOOK: FEB. 19 - 23 12:55 16.02.2018 The recovery of the US dollar turned out to be brief. Investors are worried about the US twin deficits – current account deficit and budget deficit. There are forecasts that the budget deficit will rise to $1 trillion in 2019 because of increased spending and tax cuts. In addition, many traders think that American authorities want the USD to be weak. The prospect of more Federal Reserve’s rate hikes doesn’t provide much support to the greenback anymore as other countries start to scale back their easy monetary policy. The USD no longer has an advantage. Even stronger-than-expected consumer inflation figures didn’t help. To sum up, the outlook for the US currency is still negative. USD/JPY fell to the lowest levels since the end of 2016. The level of 105.00 is a psychologically important support. The lower USD/JPY gets, the more nervous Japanese authorities will become. So far, their comments have been mild, but if the pair keeps rapidly falling they may decide to intervene. EUR/USD continues the uptrend, although it got overbought. Resistance is in the 1.2600 area. Support is at 1.2415 and 1.2310. As for GBP/USD, if it rises above 1.4160, the next target will be at 1.4350. Most important events in the economic calendar for the upcoming days include the release of European PMI, UK labor market figures and the Fed’s meeting minutes on Wednesday; the second estimate of British GDP and Canada’s and New Zealand’s retail sales on Thursday and Canada’s CPI on Friday. The Bank of England’s Governor Carney will testify on inflation and the economic outlook in Parliament on Wednesday. Asian markets will be shut for Lunar New Year holidays until Thursday. US banks will also be closed on Monday because of Presidents’ Day. More: https://goo.gl/irWJ5F

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USD/JPY BROKE SUPPORT ZONE 09:27 16.02.2018 - USD/JPY broke support zone - Next sell target - 105.50 USD/JPY continues to fall sharply after the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the support levels 108.30 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 3 at the end of January) and 107.30 (low of the previous impulse wave (A)). The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii). USD/JPY is expected to fall further toward the sell target at the next support level 105.50 (target for the completion of the impulse wave (iii)). More: https://goo.gl/vv2Gsc

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Commodity Currencies Commodity currencies are the currencies of economies with the large share of production and export of natural resources like oil, gas, coal, precious metals, etc. Their quotes are closely correlated with the country most important production. Learn in this article which currencies are these and the correlations with their commodities. https://goo.gl/EgjUPd

EUR/JPY: EURO IS GRABBING FOR A PIN BAR 06:51 15.02.2018 Recommendation: BUY 133.40 SL 132.85 TP1 134.40 TP2 135.40 On the daily chart, EUR/JPY reached 88.6% target of a “Shark” pattern. As a result, risks of a pullback increased. A pin bar increases the risks of a correction. Its high forms resistance at 133.40. To continue the decline to 113% target of the “Shark” patterns, bears need to pull the euro to February low. On H1, EUR/JPY formed two bars with lower bottom wicks. It means that bulls are ready to counterattack. They want to trigger a “Shark” pattern with a target of 88.6%. More: https://goo.gl/s5MQ1W

USD/JPY: YEN CRASHES OBSTACLES 07:00 15.02.2018 Recommendation: SELL 107.40 SL 107.95 TP1 106.40 TP2 105.35 TP3 102.80 SELL 108.05 SL 108.60 TP1 107.00 TP2 106.4 TP3 105.35 On the daily chart, USD/JPY bears managed to lead the pair out of the long-term consolidation range of 107.35-115.35. As a result, it triggered AB=CD pattern with targets at 127.2% and 161.8%. On the daily chart, bears are in total control of the pair. In such conditions, pullbacks should be used for selling. The nearest resistance levels are at 107.30-107.45, 107.90-108.05 and 108.40-108.50. More: https://goo.gl/8kdEe6

USD/JPY Daily analytics 07:00 15.02.2018 Recommendation: SELL 107.40 SL 107.95 TP1 106.40 TP2 105.35 TP3 102.80 SELL 108.05 SL 108.60 TP1 107.00 TP2 106.4 TP3 105.35 On the daily chart, USD/JPY bears managed to lead the pair out of the long-term consolidation range of 107.35-115.35. As a result, it triggered AB=CD pattern with targets at 127.2% and 161.8%. On the daily chart, bears are in total control of the pair. In such conditions, pullbacks should be used for selling. The nearest resistance levels are at 107.30-107.45, 107.90-108.05 and 108.40-108.50. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-yen-crashes-obstacles-6832?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics