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Sideways Trend Dominates USDJPY H4 Technical Analysis The USD/JPY forex pair, often referred to as the "Gopher," represents the US dollar against the Japanese yen and is one of the most widely traded currency pairs globally due to its liquidity and volatility. Today's fundamental outlook for USD/JPY centers on key upcoming economic indicators. For the US dollar, traders are closely monitoring the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices Paid data, alongside Construction Spending and Consumer Confidence reports. A PMI reading above 50 will signal economic expansion, potentially bolstering the USD, while increased Manufacturing Prices Paid could imply rising inflation pressures, which might strengthen the dollar further. On the Japanese yen side, the monetary base data released by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) auction results will influence investor sentiment. An increase in monetary base suggests accommodative monetary policy, possibly weakening the yen, whereas the JGB auction yield and bid-to-cover ratio could provide insights into market sentiment and future monetary policy direction. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. Analyzing the USD/JPY H4 chart, the market has recently entered a sideways price action trend, consistently bouncing between the Bollinger Band extremes. Whenever price action has touched either side of the Bollinger Bands, it has rebounded toward the opposite end. With the Bollinger Bands having narrowed recently, they are now expected to expand, indicating an upcoming period of volatility. The RSI indicator has been hovering between the 55.17 and 42.44 levels, suggesting neutral momentum and reinforcing the likelihood of continued sideways trading. The Stochastic Oscillator displays the %K line at 55.18 and the %D line at 66.98, indicating the potential for short-term fluctuations but no definitive breakout signal. Traders should anticipate ongoing consolidation within the identified range until fundamental news provides a clear directional catalyst. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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Date: 2nd September 2025. Is Gold About To Retrace Downwards? Gold reaches a new all-time high, rising to $3,508, meaning Gold has risen in total almost 28% in 2025. If Gold holds onto its recent gains, it will be set for its second-strongest performance in the past decade. The upward price movement is being driven by market expectations of rate cuts in September. The market also believes the Federal Reserve will cut rates more frequently in 2026. However, another key concern for investors is the bond building between Russia, China and India, which may put geopolitical tensions on edge. Gold Reaches New All-Time High The reason for Gold’s upward trend is more clearly laid out in the ‘What’s Driving Gold’s Bullish Trend And Will It Hit a New High in 2025’ article. Monday was a national holiday, with financial institutions closed and trading volumes light. However, the day was not shy of developments prompting Gold to witness higher demand. Investors are processing Friday’s US Court of Appeals ruling, which declared tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump illegal. The court ruled that officials had improperly invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), noting that only Congress has the authority to apply this framework. For this reason, most tariffs could now be removed, excluding sector-specific ones, reducing taxed imports from 69% to 16%. This is expected to ease inflation pressures and shape future Federal Reserve policy. However, an appeal remains possible until October 14th, with Trump warning on Truth Social that the decision will place unprecedented strain on the US economy. Gold And The Upcoming NFP Report A big factor which is also starting to test Gold is the risk of a recession and the new alliance in the east (Russia, China and India). Regarding the possibility of a recession or general economic slowdown, the US employment data will be key. Analysts again expect the NFP Employment Change to read below 100,000 for a second consecutive month. The NFP change has not read below this level for two consecutive months since 2021 due to COVID. If the NFP figure indeed remains low and the Unemployment Rate increases to 4.3% or above, recession concerns are likely to return. As a result, Gold may continue to see higher demand for the upcoming weeks. In addition to this, weak employment data will likely trigger a rate cut in September, October and December. Currently, the possibility of 3 rate cuts in 2025 is 37.00%, but this may change if employment data deteriorates. For this reason, whether investors will deem Gold as slightly overbought and if consequently a retracement will form, depends on this week’s employment data. The NFP data will determine how many rate cuts we are likely to witness and if the US economy is indeed at risk of a recession. However, a concern for day traders is the rise in the US Dollar Index, which may trigger a short-term decline. In addition, the market is currently showing signs of a ‘risk-off’ appetite with all US indices declining as the European Trading Session opens. Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis Gold’s price is trading at the day’s open price as the asset declines as the European Session starts. The decline is currently forming a retracement, but is not indicating a new bearish trend. The price remains above the 75-Bar EMA, and the wave pattern continues to support buyers, maintaining control. However, the price is below the VWAP, which points to a potential retracement. Based on the Moving Average, a retracement could potentially decline to the range between $3,425.60 to $3,446.30. However, if the price rises above $3,493.90, the price movement will start to indicate bullish momentum. XAUUSD 12-Hour Chart Key Takeaways: Gold hit a record high of $3,508, up nearly 28% in 2025, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. US tariffs imposed by Trump were ruled illegal, easing inflation risks but raising economic uncertainty. Upcoming NFP data will be crucial; weak job numbers could boost recession fears and increase Gold demand. Despite short-term retracement risks, Gold’s overall trend remains bullish, supported by technical indicators. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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