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Euro Moving Sideways After Falling Earlier On Fears About Greek Default

 

Monday, the euro has been moving sideways against other major currencies after falling early in the Asian session on fears about a Greek default.

The surprise resignation of the European Central Bank executive committee member Juergen Stark on Friday also added worries about Europe. The ECB said Stark is resigning for personal reasons, but media reports suggested that his resignation reflects a conflict over the central bank's controversial bond-buying program.

The euro is now worth 1.3586 against the US dollar, compared to near a 7-month low of 1.3556 hit early in the session.

The euro that slipped to more than a 10-year low of 105.06 against the yen at 5:25 pm ET is presently worth 105.26.

The euro that declined to a 6-month low of 0.8565 against the pound and a 5-day low of 1.2056 against the franc in early deals is currently worth 0.8571 and 1.2060, respectively.

 

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Hungary August Inflation Increases More Than Expected

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Hungary's annual inflation accelerated more than expected in August, data released by the Central Statistical Office showed Monday.

The consumer price index grew 3.6 percent year-on-year in August. Economists expected prices to rise 3.4 percent, following July's 3.1 percent growth.

Food prices rose 6.3 percent annually, while clothing and footwear prices moved up 3.8 percent during the month. Meanwhile, there was a 1.3 percent annual decline in prices of consumer durable goods in August.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged down 0.1 percent, which was in line with economists' forecast. In July, prices dropped 0.3 percent month-on-month.

At the same time, the harmonized index o consumer prices (HICP), which is measured under the EU methodology, rose 3.5 percent annually in August, while month-month, they dropped 0.1 percent. Core consumer prices, excluding selected items increased 3.1 year-on-year, and rose 0.2 percent on a monthly basis in August, the agency said.

 

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Russia's Central Bank Maintains Interest Rate

 

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Russia's central bank on Wednesday decided to leave its key rate unchanged, as expected by economists, as inflation continued to ease.

 

Bank Rossii left its refinancing rate unchanged at 8.25 percent. The central bank said in a statement that the decision was based on an assessment of inflation risks and risks to the sustainability of economic growth.

 

Driven by food products prices, the downward trend in annual inflation continued in September, the bank noted.

 

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German Manufacturing Employment Rises In July

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Employment in Germany's manufacturing industry increased from last year in July, preliminary data released by statistical office Destatis showed Thursday.

Employment in manufacturing units with 50 or more employees increased 3.3 percent annually to 5.1 million in July.

Employment in metal products making units advanced 5.8 percent, while the number of workers in electrical equipment manufacturing units moved up 5.6 percent year-on-year. There was a 5.2 percent annual growth in employment in firms that manufacture rubber and plastic products during the month.

At the same time, the number of hours worked in German factories rose 1.9 percent year-on-year to 648 million in July, the agency said.

 

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Europe Car Registrations Increase Sharply N August

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European new car registrations increased significantly in August, after two successive months of declines, despite the intensified debt crisis and fiscal squeeze across the region.

Car registrations rose 7.7 percent year-on-year in August following a 2 percent decline in July, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) said Friday. In June, registrations fell 8.1 percent.

During the January to August period, a total of 8.9 million new cars were registered, down 1.3 percent from the same period last year.

In August, new EU registrations totaled 753,709. New car sales in Germany climbed 18.3 percent annually, while sales in the UK rose 7.3 percent. Spain saw 5.9 percent more registrations than last year, while French market reported 3.1 percent rise in sales. Italian new car registrations rose 1.5 annually.

In July, only Germany posted growth, up 9.9 percent from last year. Car registrations fell 10.3 percent in Italy, 5.7 percent in France 4 percent in Spain and 3.5 percent in the U.K.

 

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Euro Falls On Worsening Sovereign Debt Crisis

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The euro fell against its major counterparts in the Asian session on Monday amid concerns about debt worries in the euro zone following a lack of progress in the bailout efforts.

The European finance ministers, who wrapped up two days of talks in Wroclaw, Poland, on September 17 said they would push back a decision on whether Greece should get its next payment from last year's $151 billion bailout package until next month.

Greece needs the payment to avoid defaulting on its debt, an event that would undermine the global economic recovery and hurt banks that hold Greek debt.

The euro also fell on worries that the ongoing credit woes in the euro zone will result in a marked slowdown in the global economic recovery.

Reports suggested that Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos will hold official talks today with European Union and International Monetary Fund inspectors on its eligibility for next aid payment due next month.

The euro hit 5-day lows of 104.99 against the yen and 1.3649 against the greenback, compared to Friday's close of 105.91 and 1.3789, respectively. The next downside target level for the euro is seen at 104.00 against the yen and 1.35 against the greenback

Against the pound, the euro fell to a 5-day low of 0.8694 and the pair held steady thereafter. The pair is now trading at 0.8706, compared to last week's close of 0.8736. If the euro drops further, it may target the 0.865 level.

The European currency fell to as low as 1.2058 against the franc and a 1-week low of 1.6531 against the kiwi. On the downside, the euro may target 1.20 against the franc and 1.64 against the NZ dollar. At Friday's close, the euro was worth 1.2095 against the franc and 1.6641 against the kiwi.

The Eurozone construction output data for July is due in the European session

From the U.S., NAHB housing market index for September is expected in the New York session.

 

 

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German Producer Price Inflation Eases In August

 

German producer price inflation slowed in August, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed Friday.

Producer prices increased 5.5 percent year-on-year in August, while economists expected the rate of inflation to remain steady at July's 5.8 percent. On a monthly basis, the producer price index fell 0.3 percent compared to expectations for no change.

The annual increase was driven by 10.7 percent annual surge in producer prices of energy. Excluding energy, producer prices were 3.3 percent higher than in August last year.

Producer cost of intermediate goods climbed 4.9 percent year-on-year due to higher prices of metals. Factory costs of consumer goods increased 3.7 percent from August last year.

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European Economics Preview: BoE Minutes, UK PSNB Due

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Minutes from the Bank of England's September 8 meeting and UK public sector borrowing are the major news on tap for Wednesday.

At 3 am ET, money supply data from Switzerland and retail sales figures from Hungary are due. Swiss broad money supply grew 5.9 percent year-on-year in July. For Hungary, economists expects 1.3 percent decline in retail sales in July.

Noway unemployment data is expected to be released at 4 am ET. The jobless rate is forecast to stay at 3.3 percent.

At 4.30 am ET, the Bank of England is scheduled to release the minutes of the September 8 meeting of the monetary policy committee, which decided to leave the benchmark interest rate at record low of 0.5 percent. Economists are awaiting the release to know if any other members joined Adam Posen in seeking expansion in the QE.

The Office for National Statistics is slated to release the public sector net borrowing figures for the month of August. Economists forecast the borrowing, excluding interventions, to amount to GBP 13 billion during the month.

 

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BoE's Posen: Central Bankers' Inflation Expectation Worries Exaggerated-Report

 

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Bank of England policymaker Adam Posen said that the central bankers' fears over public inflation expectations are "exaggerated."

 

In an interview to the Wall Street Journal, published Thursday, he said the central bankers are overly worried that that the public and markets are going to expect more inflation. "The likelihood of it happening in the current economic environment seems extremely low."

 

Posen in the lone member in the Bank of England monetary policy committee demanding more stimulus to the economy.

 

Old habits and misperceptions of today's recovery are making his U.K. peers and some central banks in Europe and the U.S. reluctant to aggressively pump more credit into the economy, he said during the interview.

 

The U.K's above-target inflation is due to "temporary factors" and this should not prevent the central bank from easing in the future, he told the newspaper.

 

Posen called for "roughly coordinated" move by major developed-country central banks to ease monetary policy.

 

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WTO Cuts 2011 Trade Forecast On Rising Downside Risks

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The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Friday reduced the trade forecast for this year to 5.8 percent from its earlier 'conservative' estimate of 6.5 percent, citing rising downside risks.

According to economists at the global trade body, trade has grown more slowly than expected in recent months and the outlook for the global economy is increasingly uncertain.

WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy urged member countries to remain vigilant. "This is not the time for go-it-alone measures," he said. "This is the time to strengthen and preserve the global trading system so that it keeps performing this vital function in the future."

 

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Eurozone Leading Index Falls In August: Conference Board

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Eurozone's leading economic indicator declined in August, after improving slightly in the previous month, data released by the Conference Board showed Monday.

The leading economic indicator (LEI) dropped to 107.1 in August from 108.6 in July. In June, the reading was 108.5. The decline in the index was primarily due to a severe deterioration in business confidence and stock prices.

Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI), which measures the current economic condition, remained unchanged at 103.4 in August. In June, the reading was 103.1.

In the six months ended August, the LEI decreased 1.7 percent, while the coincident index edged up 0.4 percent, the agency said.

 

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S. Korean Business Confidence To Improve In October

 

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South Korean business confidence will improve in October, a survey carried out by the Federation of Korean Industries revealed Tuesday.

 

The sentiment indicator for October came in at 101.4, the highest level since June. The index climbed from 96.3 in September. A reading above 100 suggests that companies forecasting business conditions to improve outnumber those predicting decline.

 

The survey based on 600 companies revealed that firms expect improvement in export performance due to the weakness of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar.

 

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Euro Mixed Ahead Of German Import Price Index

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German import price figures for August will be released at 2:00 am ET Wednesday. Ahead of the data, the euro showed mixed trading against its major counterparts. While the euro rose against the franc, it held steady against the yen. Against the greenback and the pound, the euro fell.

At 1:55 am ET, the euro traded at 1.3554 against the greenback, 103.80 against the yen, 0.8676 against the pound and 1.2202 against the franc.

 

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Europe Aug. Commercial Vehicle Sales Growth Improves: ACEA

 

European new commercial vehicle sales increased at a faster pace in August, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) showed Thursday.

New registrations of commercial vehicles moved up 15.7 percent year-on-year after rising 3 percent in July, which led to an 8.3 percent increase over the two summer months compared to the same period last year.

From January to August, a total of 12,611,244 new commercial vehicles were registered across the region, or 12.1 percent more than in the first eight months of previous year.

Most major markets logged growth, ranging from 6.4 percent in France to 21.1 percent in the U.K. and 23.3 percent in Germany. Spain was the only one to contract, where sales were down 6.3 percent.

In August, new truck registrations increased by 23.5 percent, reflecting the upturn in Germany. After a 3.8 percent fall in July, new bus and coach registrations increased by 4.8 percent in August.

 

 

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European Economics Preview: Eurozone Flash Inflation Data Due

 

Flash inflation and unemployment from Eurozone and retail sales from Germany are the major statistical reports due on Friday, headlining a hectic day for European Economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Federal Statistical Office is scheduled to issue German retail sales. Economists forecast retail sales to fall 0.5 percent month-on-month in August, following a 0.3 percent rise in July. On a yearly basis, retail sales are forecast to fall 1 percent.

The French statistical office Insee is set to publish consumer spending and producer prices for August. Monthly increase in consumer spending is seen at 0.1 percent, down sharply from 1.2 percent rise in July. Producer price annual inflation is forecast to ease to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent in July.

Denmark's GDP, Norway unemployment and Turkish trade balance are due at 3.00 am ET. The Danish economy is forecast to expand 0.8 percent sequentially in the second quarter. Turkey's trade deficit is seen at $7.1 billion in August, smaller than the $9.01 billion shortfall in July.

The Italian statistical office Istat is slated to issue unemployment data for the second quarter. The jobless rate is expected to fall to 8 percent from 8.2 percent in the first quarter.

Eurozone flash inflation and jobless figures are due at 5.00 am ET. Inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 2.5 percent in September. The jobless rate is seen at 10 percent in August.

In the meantime, Italy's inflation data is due. Annual inflation is forecast to rise slightly to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent in August.

At 5.30 am ET, Swiss KOF leading index is due. The indicator is expected to ease to 1.3 in September from 1.61 in August.

 

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Eurozone Factory Activity Declines Less Than Expected

 

Eurozone factory activity decline in September was less severe than expected, final results of a survey by Markit Economics showed Monday.

The final reading of the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector was a 25-month low of 48.5, a tad above the flash estimate of 48.4. In August, the score was 49. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

Eurozone manufacturing sector contracted for a second consecutive month, led by decline in new orders in all countries. New orders dropped at the fastest rate in 27 months due to a combination of disappointing domestic sales and weak exports.

The PMI held above the neutral-mark of 50 only in Germany, though by a small margin. Meanwhile, Italy was the only euro member to see a rise in PMI, but the index remained in contractionary territory.

Greece recorded the steepest rate of contraction of all countries covered, followed by Spain and then Ireland, Markit said.

 

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Dollar Strengthens Against European Majors

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After moving broadly sideways in the latter part of the Asian session, the US dollar edged higher against the major currencies of Europe in early European deals Tuesday.

The greenback is presently trading at fresh multi-month highs of 1.3148 against the euro and 0.9233 against the Swiss franc with 1.3080 and 0.93, respectively seen as the next likely resistance levels.

Against the pound, the US dollar advanced to an 11-day high of 1.54 around 3:50 am ET. The cable is presently worth 1.5415 with 1.5340 seen as the next likely target level.

 

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Euro Rebounds Ahead Of Eurozone's September PMI Data

 

Wednesday, the European currency inched higher against its major rivals in early European deals ahead of the release of major eurozone economies' final services PMI data for the month of September.

Italy's PMI is due at 3.45 am ET. The services index is forecast to fall to 47 from 48.4 in the prior month.

Final French and German PMI results are due at 3.50 and 3.55 am ET. French services PMI is seen at 52.5 and German at 50.3, both in line with flash estimates.

Markit Economics is set to release services and composite PMI for Eurozone at 4.00 am ET. Economists expect the composite index to fall to 49.2 in September as initially estimated.

The common currency that eased in early Asian deals in response to Moody's downgrading of Italy staged a brief reversal just ahead of the data.

As of 3:40 am ET, the euro was trading at 102.30 against the yen, 1.3326 versus the US dollar, 1.2280 against the Swiss franc and 0.8630 against the pound.

 

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European Economics Preview: ECB, BoE Interest Rate Decisions Due

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Interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of England are the major events due on Thursday. Both central banks are expected to leave key interest rates unchanged.

Spanish and Hungarian industrial production reports are due at 3.00 am ET. Spanish industrial output is forecast to fall 4.7 percent annually in August after easing 2.8 percent in July. Meanwhile, Hungary's industrial output growth is seen at 1.3 percent for August, down from 2.7 percent in the prior month.

At 3.15 am ET, Swiss consumer price figures are due from the Federal Statistical Office. Annual inflation is forecast to rise to 0.3 percent in September from 0.2 percent in August.

The Bank of England is slated to issue housing equity withdrawal figures for the second quarter at 4.30 am ET.

German factory orders are due from the Federal Ministry of Economy and Technology at 6.00 am ET. Economists forecast orders to remain flat month-on-month in August after falling 2.8 percent in July.

The Bank of England is set to announce its interest rate decision at 7.00 am ET. The Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King is expected to hold the interest rate at 0.50 percent, the lowest since the central bank was established in 1694. Further, the BoE is forecast to maintain GBP 200 billion asset purchase programme.

The European Central Bank is due to release monetary policy statement at 7.45 am ET. Economists expect the central bank to hold the rate steady at 1.50 percent.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet holds a press conference following the interest rate announcement at 8.30 am ET. Trichet, who is set to leave the ECB this month, is expected to unveil some non-standard measures.

 

 

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Moody's Downgrades Nine Portuguese Banks

Moody's Investors Service on Friday downgraded senior debt and deposit ratings of nine Portuguese banks, citing deterioration of their unsupported financial strength.

Moody's said that it saw increased asset risk for these banks as a direct consequence of the their holdings of Portuguese government debt and the sovereign's downgraded rating.

Furthermore, the agency expected further deterioration of the banks' domestic asset quality due to weak outlook for economic growth in the context of the government's austerity measures.

The liquidity strains of the banks that currently lack access to wholesale funding is also a key driver of the rating action.

The six banks which faced downgrades of both their standalone ratings and their debt and deposit ratings are Caixa Geral de Depositos, Banco Comercial Portugues, Banco Espirito Santo, Banco BPI, Banco Santander Totta, and Caixa Economica Montepio Geral.

Banco Internacional do Funchal and Banco Portugues de Negocios had their debt and deposit rating downgraded as a consequence of the weaker Portuguese sovereign, resulting in a lower rating uplift for these banks' debt ratings. The debt ratings of Espirito Santo Financial Group follow the lower rating of its operating company, BES.

All of the banks' ratings carry a negative outlook with the exception of Banco Portugues de Negocios, which has a developing outlook on all of its ratings.

 

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Euro Zone Investor Sentiment at Its Lowest Level in Oct Since July 2009

 

News:

  • Euro zone investor sentiment declined for the 3rd consecutive month to -18.5 in Oct, its lowest level since July 2009, from -15.4 in Sept.

  • A sub-index tracking current conditions dropped to -5.75 from -3.25, while a sub-index tracking expectations fell to -30.5 from -26.75

Quotes:

"The unsolved European sovereign debt crisis and the weakening of momentum in emerging markets remain the principle drivers of this development,"

Sentix

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Eurozone Industrial Output Rises Unexpectedly In August

 

Industrial production in the Eurozone increased unexpectedly in August, data released by Eurostat showed Wednesday. This was the second consecutive increase after a marginal decline in June.

The seasonally adjusted industrial output increased 1.2 percent on a monthly basis in August, following an upwardly revised 1.1 percent rise in July. Economists expected a 0.8 percent fall.

In European Union member states, industrial output grew 0.9 percent month-on-month, at the same pace as in the previous month.

Year-on-year, industrial production in Eurozone increased 5.3 percent, following a 4.4 percent rise in July. Economists expected production to rise 2.1 percent. In EU27, production was up 4.3 percent annually.

 

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Euro Mixed Ahead Of ECB Monthly Report

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The European Central Bank is set to publish its monthly report for October at 4.00 am ET. The euro showed mixed trading ahead of the data.

While the common currency traded lower against the Swiss franc, it inched higher versus the rest of majors. As of 3:55 am ET, the common currency was trading at 0.8776 against the pound, 1.2356 against the Swiss franc, 1.3817 against the US dollar and 106.55 against the yen.

 

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Trichet Urges Eurozone Leaders To Resolve Crisis

 

Eurozone leaders must resolve the crisis in Europe and take concrete steps to restore confidence, the outgoing President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, said as the policymakers prepare for the crucial October 23 summit.

In an interview with the Financial Times newspaper on Thursday, Trichet said the policymakers in the eurozone have to strengthen banks' balance sheets and restore credibility. He reiterated that ECB will not act as a "lender of last resort" to governments.

Referring to the Eurozone debt crisis, he said "It is a historical event of the first magnitude, the worst crisis since the second world war." It could have produced a great depression had appropriate decisions not been taken at the appropriate time, he told the daily.

Trichet, who will be replaced by Mario Draghi next month, is meeting G20 leaders in Paris today. The emerging market economies are reportedly planning to boost the lending capacity of the International Monetary Fund, to help Europe fight the debt crisis.

"It's our duty to tell governments and other institutions what we see, but up to them to take the appropriate decisions," Trichet said in a separate interview with Bloomberg Television in London on Thursday.

He also urged policymakers to remain alert warning that a lot of unpredictable events can occur. Last week, the ECB offered unlimited liquidity and pledged to resume covered bond purchases in November, as part of its liquidity boosting efforts to stave off the crisis.

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Research: Eur/usd - Trading Strategy, Trigger Points, and Support and Resistance Levels

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RBS has given the following trading strategy, trigger points, and support and resistance levels:

TRADING STRATEGY: Longer term longs; stop below the neckline at 1.3650 target 1.4099 onto 1.4200 (spot 1.3778)

TRIGGER POINTS:

1.3873 - where the market looked toppy around the middle of September and where the 61.8% retracement falls from the previous range.

1.4099 - My (analyst) initial objective from this pattern and the 38.2% of this new found range from the retracements

1.3907 - a 50% retracement from the rally at the beginning of the year at 1.2874 to the high at 1.4940.

SUPPORT LEVELS: 1.3799, 1.3700

RESISTANCE LEVELS: 1.3907, 1.4099

-A strong close to the week, given that risk sentiment tends to suffer a sudden bout of fear as the weekly close nears, this didn't happen last Friday and the EUR closed up near the highs. The dominant technical feature is the inverse head and shoulders pattern with a target up at 1.4099 possibly 1.4200 with a stop currently positioned at 1.3650 – this can be moved up to 1.3750 if required.

 

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