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#421
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GBP/USD: Current Dynamics

13/03/2019

The pound is regaining its position after a sharp fall on Tuesday, when the British parliament again voted against the version of the Brexit agreement proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May.

Now lawmakers on Wednesday will vote on the issue of leaving the EU on March 29 without a deal. If they vote against, then on Thursday there will be a vote on the question of postponing the exit date from March 29 to a later date.

The GBP / USD maintains a positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the daily and 4-hour charts), 1.3000 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).

In case of continued growth and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.7200) GBP / USD will aim to the resistance levels 1.3300, 1.3400 (upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.3670 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

Short positions will become relevant after the GBP / USD decline to a zone below the support level of 1.3000.

The signal for the resumption of sales of GBP / USD will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.3123 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

Support Levels: 1.3123, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2400

Resistance Levels: 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3670

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1.3090. Stop Loss 1.3170. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2400

Buy Stop 1.3170. Stop Loss 1.3090. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3670

130319-GU-D.png

130319-GU-H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#422
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EUR/USD: dollar strengthened

14/03/2019

The dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 currencies, is growing on Thursday.

In the middle of the European session, futures for the DXY dollar index traded near the 96.75 mark, 25 points higher than the opening price of today.

As the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Thursday, industrial production in the country in January-February increased by 5.3% compared with the same period last year, after an annual growth of 5.7% in December. At the beginning of 2019, the growth of the Chinese economy slowed down. Industrial production growth was weak, despite some recovery in investment.

In a situation of international trade wars, the US economy looks more stable compared to other major world economies.

This increases the investment attractiveness of the dollar and US assets.

Dollar growth also resumed after US President Donald Trump warned Beijing on Wednesday that he would not sign a trade agreement that would not take into account Washington’s demands.

On Thursday, the focus of traders' attention is the vote in the British Parliament on the postponement of the country's withdrawal from the EU from March 29 to a later date.

However, further developments are still very uncertain, which creates prerequisites for maintaining the situation of increased volatility in the financial market.

The situation around Brexit is reflected both in quotes of the pound and in quotations of the euro.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

On Thursday, the EUR / USD is falling amid a stronger dollar. Probably further fall of the Eurodollar.

The outlook for the European economy has worsened, according to the ECB management. The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, after the last meeting of the ECB, said that the GDP growth in the Eurozone in 2019 will be 1.1%, not 1.7%, in 2020 1.6%, and not 1.7%, as planned earlier.

The ECB announced a new program of target long-term refinancing, which was a surprise to investors.

The euro fell sharply last week, and the EUR / USD pair fell 1% (or 114 points) to 1.1191. Last Thursday the multi-month minimum was fixed at 1.1177.

In the event of a breakdown of support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will head towards targets at support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.

The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.

Short positions are preferred.

Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the resistance level of 1.1330 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).

Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1330, 1.1435, 1.1490

 

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1.1280. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000

Buy Stop 1.1340. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1435, 1.1500

140319-EU-D.png

 140319-EU-H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#423
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WTI: oil prices likely to rise further

03/15/2019

Current dynamics

Oil prices are rising again on Friday, receiving support from data on US oil reserves, published on Wednesday. As the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy reported, oil reserves in the US last week unexpectedly fell by 3.9 million barrels to 449.1 million barrels (the forecast was +1.9 million barrels). The US restrictions on oil exports from Iran and Venezuela also contribute to a more significant reduction in world supply and higher oil prices. The United States intends to reduce the supply of oil from Iran by about 20%.

On Friday at 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield service company Baker Hughes will publish a weekly report on the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States. To date, the number of active rigs in the United States is 834 active rigs, which is much lower than the maximum of 887 units, achieved at the end of 2018. The increase in the number of active drilling rigs will support oil prices.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

On Thursday, WTI crude prices hit a high in 2019 near $58.67 a barrel, and oil prices continue to rise on the first half of the trading day on Friday.

In case of consolidation above the key support level of 58.60 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), further price growth is likely.

So far, WTI oil is trading above important support levels of 55.50 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 56.35 (ЕМА200 on weekly chart), 57.80 (Fibonacci 38.2% of the correction to the growth wave that started in February 2016 from near the mark of 27.30), positive dynamics is maintained. Long positions are preferred.

In the case of a breakdown of the short-term support level of 57.10 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline will resume with targets at the support levels of 56.35, 55.50, 53.80, 52.00, 50.25, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20.

Support Levels: 58.60, 57.80, 57.10, 56.35, 55.50, 53.80, 52.00

Resistance Levels: 59.00, 60.00, 62.00, 64.00, 65.00

 

Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 56.90. Stop Loss 59.10. Take-Profit 56.35, 55.50, 53.80, 52.00, 50.25, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20

Buy Stop 59.10. Stop Loss 56.90. Take-Profit 60.00, 62.00, 64.00, 65.00

150319-WTI-D.png

150319-WTI-H1.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com


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#424
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S&P500: Current Situation

18/03/2019

Last week, the DJIA grew by 1.6%, the Nasdaq - by 3.8%, and the S&P 500 - by 2.9%, closing at the maximum levels of 2019. The growth leader in the S&P 500 for the current year remains the technology sector.

On Monday, the positive dynamics of US stock indices persisted, although their growth stopped. At the beginning of the European session, futures for the S&P500 index are traded near the mark of 2824.0. Today, the publication of important macro data is not expected, and, probably, US stock indexes will remain traded near the current levels. But on Wednesday you should be careful when trading stock indices and the dollar. Recall that at 18:00 (GMT) the Fed’s decision on the interest rate will be published, and at 18:30 (GMT) the Fed’s press conference will begin. During this period, a sharp increase in volatility in financial markets is likely. The soft rhetoric of Jerome Powell’s speech will further boost US stock indices.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

At the end of January, the S&P500 index broke through key resistance levels of 2676.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since February 2016), 2720.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), significantly recovered after falling in the 4th quarter of last year.

At the moment, the growth of US stock indexes and the S&P500 index continues. Investors are betting on further growth of indices against the background of a more stable position of the American economy in comparison with other major economies of the world.

at the beginning of the American session, the S&P500 is trading near the 2828.0 mark. The S&P500 maintains a positive trend, trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, above the key support level of 2720.0.

Long positions are preferred. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 2796.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

Support Levels: 2817.0, 2796.0, 2755.0, 2720.0, 2676.0, 2550.0, 2507.0, 2450.0, 2386.0, 2335.0

Resistance Levels: 2836.0, 2873.0, 2936.0

 

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 2794.0. Stop Loss 2838.0. Objectives 2755.0, 2720.0, 2676.0

Buy Stop 2838.0. Stop Loss 2794.0. Objectives 2873.0, 2936.0

180319-DXY.png

180319-s500-D.png

180319-s500-H1.png

 

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#425
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EUR/USD: Current dynamics

03/19/2019

The US dollar continues to decline on Tuesday. Investors expect that at a meeting on Wednesday, the Fed will demonstrate a propensity for a soft monetary policy. The decision on the Fed's interest rate will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 (GMT), and a press conference will begin at 18:30, at which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can clarify what the central bank is thinking about the economy and the prospects for monetary policy.

In recent weeks, Fed officials have made it clear that they are not in a hurry to change rates until the situation with the US economy is clear.

On Tuesday, futures for the DXY dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is trading near 95.83, down 76 points from the closing price last Friday.

Some market participants are betting that the Fed will not raise the rate until the end of the year and may even lower it if the situation in the economy and the US labor market deteriorates. This is a negative factor for the dollar. Expectations that rates do not rise usually put pressure on the dollar, making it less attractive to investors.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

On Tuesday, the EUR / USD is trying to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 1.1332 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

The top line of the descending channel on the daily chart also passes through the mark 1.1332, from which the release and return inside this channel is likely.

Downward dynamics prevail. The breakdown of the support level of 1.1313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of Eurodollar sales.

In the event of a breakdown of support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will head towards targets at support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.

The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.

Short positions are preferred.

Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the local resistance level of 1.1350.

Support Levels: 1.1332, 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480

 

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1365. Take-Profit 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120

Buy Stop 1.1365. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480

190319-DXY.png

190319-EU-D.png

190319-EU-H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#426
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EUR/USD: Fed meeting

03/20/2019

The dollar retains mainly the position before the publication at 18:00 (GMT) of the decision on the interest rate of the Fed. On Wednesday, futures for the dollar index DXY, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is trading near 95.93, down 66 points from the closing price last Friday, but up 10 points from the closing price on Tuesday.

Market participants do not expect changes in monetary policy at this Fed meeting, which will end on Wednesday with the publication of a rate decision and a press conference. Its beginning is scheduled for 18:30 (GMT).

Probably, the Fed will again declare patience, as well as lower forecasts for interest rates and US economic growth. It is possible that the leaders of the Fed will declare that the key rate has reached its peak. To restore funding for the US economy from abroad, the dollar must weaken.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump also repeatedly criticized the Fed’s monetary policy against the backdrop of low inflation in the country.

Nevertheless, the demand for the dollar may remain in the medium and long term against the backdrop of international trade wars, regardless of the actions of the Fed. The US economy still looks more stable than other major global economies.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

On Wednesday, the EUR / USD is trying to develop an upward trend above the support level of 1.1332 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Below this level, downward dynamics prevail. The breakdown of the support level of 1.1313 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal to resume sales.

The targets for the decline after the breakdown of the support level of 1.1285 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900 that began in May 2014) will be the support levels of 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000.

The long-term bearish trend, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.

Short positions are preferred.

Long positions will become relevant after EUR / USD is fixed in the zone above the local resistance level of 1.1350.

Support Levels: 1.1332, 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480

 

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1365. Take-Profit 1.1313, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1185, 1.1120

Buy Stop 1.1365. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1480

200319-DXY.png

 200319-EU-D.png

200319-EU-H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#427
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GBP/USD: anxiety is growing in the markets

03/21/2019

On Thursday, the dollar is rising, recovering from a strong fall on Wednesday. DXY dollar index futures at the beginning of the American session on Thursday traded near the level of 95.67, 32 points higher than the opening price of today.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland also retained their monetary policy unchanged. The decision of the SNB was published on Thursday at 08:30 GMT, and of the Bank of England at 12:00. The Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at -0.75%, where it has been located since January 2015. It also left a three-month LIBOR rate in the range from -1.25% to -0.25%.

It is worth paying attention to the statement of the SNB, made by it after the meeting. The statement says that this decision and the decline in economic forecasts "is mainly due to the deterioration of the prospects for economic growth and inflation abroad, as well as the associated decrease in expectations regarding the interest rates of key economic regions".

The Bank of England also predictably retained its monetary policy unchanged. The decision was made by all 9 votes of members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The bank’s statement says that “the outlook for the economy depends on how the UK leaves the EU”.

The pound almost did not respond to the decision of the Bank of England.

At the same time, anxiety is growing in the markets. Usually, the decision of the central bank of the United States, similar to the one adopted on Wednesday, would provoke growth in the stock markets, but this time the indices rose briefly and fell again. The yield on US government bonds reached 2.52%, the lowest level in a year, and the disappearing difference between long-term and short-term bonds indicates an increased likelihood of recession.

And yet, the demand for the dollar may remain in the situation of international trade wars and a slowdown in the global economy, regardless of the actions of the Fed. The US economy looks more stable than other major global economies.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

At the same time, the negative dynamics in the GBP / USD pair is growing due to renewed uncertainty about Brexit.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.3050 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the targets for further reduction will be the support levels of 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2660, 1.2600.

In the alternative scenario, and after returning to the zone above the resistance level of 1.3210 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.7200), the GBP / USD growth will resume with targets at the resistance levels of 1.3400 ( the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.3660 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

Short positions in the current situation looks preferable.

Support Levels: 1.3112, 1.3050, 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600

Resistance Levels: 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3660

 

Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.3090. Stop Loss 1.3190. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.2970, 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2590, 1.2480

Buy Stop 1.3190. Stop Loss 1.3090. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3660

210319-DXY.png

210319-GU-D.png

210319-GU-H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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