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There is analytics and trading recommendations from the company Tifia in this thread.

 

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Tifia is a ECN/STP broker that provides its clients with fully transparent Forex trading conditions. Cooperating with us excludes any conflicts of interest and offers you high quality trading services and access to Tier-1 bank liquidity.

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The company ensures that all financial operations are carried out in accordance with strict regulations, security and legal requirements standards.

Account types: ECN Classic, ECN PRO

Trading Platforms: MT4

Highly Competitive Forex Spreads (spreads start at 0.0 pips)

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Affiliate Programs: IB program and MAM

The clients are our best motivation for further development. Everything we do, we do it in your interests!

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EUR/USD: the dollar can get support today

23/03/2017

 

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1.0770. Stop-Loss 1.0830. Targets 1.0760, 1.0735, 1.0675, 1.0615

Buy Stop 1.0830. Stop-Loss 1.0770. Targets 1.0850, 1.0890, 1.0940

 

Overview and Dynamics

Last week, as you know, at the end of two day meeting of the Fed raised short-term interest rates 25 basis points to 0.75% -1.00% range. In this case, the Fed pointed to the likelihood of the two rate hikes this year. Fed comments did not meet expectations of investors, who were counting on 3-4 fold increase in the rate.

 In response to the Fed's comments that the Fed showed inclination for a more loose monetary policy, and contrary to the decision to raise rates, the greenback fell sharply on the foreign exchange market. The WSJ dollar index, which tracks the US dollar's value against a basket of 16 major currencies, fell on Wednesday by 1.2%, to 90.82, which was its strongest one-day fall since January 17.

Investors who have been actively investing in the safe-haven yen, gold, took up negative attitude towards the dollar. The EUR / USD which received additional support after the results became known primaries in France, where the leader, former Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs of France, Emmanuel Macron, a supporter of euro integration. The leader of the political party "National Front" Marine Le Pen, which is against the euro integration and for exit of France's from NATO, again moved to 3rd place.

Among the investors became more euro buyers than before, and there are proponents of the view that the ECB will soon turn off the program of quantitative easing, QE in the Eurozone.

So, on Monday, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said the ECB should gradually start to move away from loose monetary policy, which leads to inflation.

Last week was presented the February data on inflation, which for the first time in four years showed accelerating price growth towards the ECB target (below 2.0%). At a recent press conference ECB President Mario Draghi said "there is no more sense of further action urgent need" to deal with the extremely slow pace of inflation. However, the consensus among the leaders of the ECB on this matter has not. Thus, the head of the Bank of France said Wednesday that "the time is not to fold stimulate the economy."

On Friday at 09:00 (GMT) will be presented the most important data for the level of business activity in key sectors of the economy of the Eurozone in March. There is expected growth of business activity in the services sector and the manufacturing sector of the economy. Earlier on Friday, also should pay attention to the publication at 06:30 and 08:30 (GMT) on the French GDP data for the first quarter and the index of business activity in Germany in March. Thus, on Friday published a number of important macro data for the Eurozone, which will cause a surge in volatility and trading in euro, including a pair of EUR / USD.

In the center of the attention of investors today will be the speech at 12:45 (GMT) of Fed chief Janet Yellen. In addition, if she will give a signal to accelerate the pace of increase in US interest rates, the dollar may be supported in the currency market.

 

Technical analysis

The EUR / USD rose sharply this month. Despite the interest rate rise in the US dollar weakened significantly in the currency market. The growth of EUR / USD pair reached March nearly 230 points. Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, weekly, monthly charts were developed on long positions.

The pair came close to the strong resistance level 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart). However, to break through the 1.0820 level EUR / USD pair will not be easy. Any change in the Fed’s sentiment quickly returns the positive momentum that will lead to its growth over the currency market.

In this case, reduction in the EUR / USD below support levels 1.0760 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.0735 (EMA200 the 1-hour chart) return it to the downtrend. Nearest goal - to support levels 1.0675 (EMA200 and the lower line of the rising channel on 4-hour chart), 1.0615 (the lower line of the rising channel on the daily chart).

 Only in the case of consolidation above the level of 1.0820 is possible to speak about the future growth of the EUR / USD in the rising channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of it is held near the level of 1.1000.

Uncertainty about the upcoming elections in France will hold back until the euro and the pair EUR / USD.

 

Support levels: 1.0760, 1.0735, 1.0675, 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485

Resistance levels: 1.0820

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USD/CAD: spread between oil prices and quotations of the Canadian dollar_24/03/2017

 

Current dynamics

 

After the Republicans proposed to postpone the vote in the US Congress on the health bill on Friday, the dollar adjusted and partially regained its positions in the foreign exchange market. It seems that the Republican Party has not yet received the support of the necessary number of congressmen in the preliminary negotiations. In view of this, it is likely that today, right up to the beginning of voting on the project (during the American trading session), the same picture can be repeated in the dynamics of the dollar. The US dollar has corrected after yesterday's decline and some market participants will want to re-enter short positions on it during today's European session. Nevertheless, with respect to the pair USD / CAD it is necessary to be careful when making sales of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.

At 15:30, 16:30 and 16:45 (GMT + 3) a number of important macroeconomic indicators for the US and Canada are published, including the most important inflation indices - consumer price indices in Canada for February. The consumer price index is a key indicator of the level of inflation. The tendency of the Bank of Canada to tighten or mitigate monetary policy directly depends on it. The higher the value of the index, the higher the chances of raising the key rate in Canada and the higher the value of the Canadian dollar. According to the forecast, the index rose in February by 0.2% (+ 2.1% in annual terms). If the forecast is confirmed or the data will be better, the Canadian dollar will get support in the foreign exchange market.

It is worth, however, pay attention to the spread in the quotes of the Canadian dollar and oil prices. Despite a significant decline in oil prices in March (about 11.5%), the Canadian dollar avoided a fall in the pair USD / CAD. The reverse correlation of the pair USD / CAD with oil prices is approximately 92% and the Canadian dollar, remaining the commodity currency, is sensitive to oil quotes.

In case of a successful outcome of voting in the US Congress on the bill on changes in the US healthcare system, the pair USD / CAD can grow significantly.

Today, as well as yesterday, the highest volatility in the financial markets is expected, especially during the American trading session, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.

 

Support and resistance levels

 

Since May 2011, the pair USD / CAD is in an upward long-term trend. At the beginning of 2016, having peaked near 1.4600, the pair USD / CAD adjusted sharply, falling to support level 1.2630 by May 2016 (Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair's upward wave growth since May 2011). At the moment, the pair USD / CAD is trading near the most important level of 1.3385 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The pair USD / CAD keeps positive dynamics above support levels 1.3225 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.3305 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour and daily charts are on the buyer’s side.

Fundamental factors (the difference in the direction of the monetary policies of the central banks of the US and Canada, falling oil prices) also contribute to the growth of the pair USD / CAD. Fixing the pair above the resistance levels 1.3385 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1.3410 (local highs) will create prerequisites for further growth of the pair in the medium term and return to the uptrend.

In the short term, a decline to support level 1.3305 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) is possible. The breakdown of the support level 1.3225 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will create risks for further reduction of the pair with a "long" target of 1.2630 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% and EMA144 on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3280, 1.3225

Resistance levels: 1.3360, 1.3385, 1.3410

 

Trading Scenarios

 

Buy Stop 1.3380. Stop-Loss 1.3330. Take-Profit 1.3410, 1.3500, 1.3600

Sell ​​Stop 1.3330. Stop-Loss 1.3380. Take-Profit 1.3305, 1.3280, 1.3225

 

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S&P500: Trump reforms "stall" _27/​03/2017

 

Current dynamics

 

The failure of the Trump administration with the draft of the new health law forced many investors to question its ability to fulfill Trump's promises during the campaign to support business in the United States. As you know, on Friday the Republicans withdrew from the vote in the US Congress the question of a new health bill, without enlisting the support of the majority of congressmen. Doubts about the success of the Trump administration began to appear at the beginning of last week. As a result, over the past week, the leading US stock indices recorded the largest drop in the last few months.

Reform of the health system was considered the first real test of the capabilities of the new administration. And now failure can cast doubt on the other legislative projects of Trump.

Doubts about Trump's ability to pursue a stimulating policy that would support the growth of stocks and the yield of government bonds caused a drop not only in the indices, but also in the dollar across the entire foreign exchange market.

The ICE dollar index fell on Friday to a minimum since mid-January 99,627 against 99,760 on Thursday. The S & P500 index fell 0.1% on Friday to 2,343.98 points, and by the end of the week, it fell 1.4%, which was its worst result since November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3% to 20596. Its weekly decline reached 1.5% and was the highest since September. Prices for US Treasury bonds rose, and the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 2.396% from 2.418% on Thursday.

Nevertheless, Donald Trump tried to reassure investors, saying, "we will undertake a very large effort for a significant reduction in taxes and tax reform. This will be our next step. "

In general, the positive background for stock indices remains. Despite the rollback (in absolute terms), the indices increased significantly in annual terms. So, the S & P500 index, despite weekly losses, since the beginning of the year is gaining 3.8%, DJIA has grown since the beginning of the year by 3.3%.

Now investors will closely follow the next steps of the administration of the US president. The Fed has already made it clear that there will be only two rate hikes this year, i.e. one more, and not three, as planned earlier. The Fed's inclination to soft monetary policy, as well as Trump's statements that the country needs a cheaper dollar, are supporting the US stock market.

 

Support and resistance levels

 

With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index fell sharply. The recall of the bill on health care from the Congress and its withdrawal from the vote collapsed the dollar and major US indices. The S & P500 index broke a short-term support level of 2348.0 and a support level of 2332.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

The breakdown of the 2348.0, 2332.0 levels increased the risk of further decline in the index. The objectives of this decline are the levels of 2258.0 (December highs), 2265.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the growth of the index from the level of 1830.0 (low of 2016) to the level of 2400.0 (highs of 2017)).

Restoring of the index above the level of 2355.0 return the positive dynamics to index S&P500 and will point to the recent highs near the level of 2400.0.

The breakdown of support levels of 2228.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2181.0 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.

Support levels: 2320.0, 2265.0, 2228.0, 2181.0

Resistance levels: 2332.0, 2348.0, 2355.0, 2400.0

 

Trading Scenarios

 

Sell ​​Stop 2318.0. Stop-Loss 2333.0. Objectives 2265.0, 2228.0, 2181.0

Buy Stop 2333.0. Stop-Loss 2318.0. Objectives 2348.0, 2355.0, 2370.0, 2385.0, 2400.0

 

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XAG/USD: The dollar is recovering after the fall

28/03/2017

 

Current dynamics

 

On Monday, the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. On Friday, Republicans withdrew their bill from Congress to abolish Obamacare, as it did not receive support among Congressmen. Among investors, fears have increased that the US president's administration will be able to implement the promised tax cuts and increase infrastructure costs.

The dollar index of the Wall Street Journal, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, fell 0.6% to 89.65, the lowest level since November 11. Earlier, the dollar actively grew in the market in anticipation that the new administration of the US president will resort to fiscal stimulus measures of the economy, increasing budget expenditures, and creating prerequisites for a faster increase in interest rates.

The growth of uncertainty in the financial markets leads to the withdrawal of investor funds in safer assets, such as government bonds, yen, precious metals. So, on Monday April gold futures rose 0.6% to 1255.70 US dollars per ounce, having finished trading at the maximum level since February 27. However, the spot price for silver rose to $ 18.11 per troy ounce, the highest for the last 3 weeks.

The price of precious metals usually grows during periods of market or political uncertainty.

Moreover, the weakening of the dollar and the appreciation of precious metals is not hampered even by the decision of the Fed to raise the rate this month and verbal intervention by representatives of the Fed on the high probability of a multiple rate increase this year. Representatives of the Federal Reserve have repeatedly signaled that the rate increase this year is likely to continue in connection with the strengthening of the economy and against expectations of an increase in inflation to the target of 2%, as well as an increase in US employment. Nevertheless, the prices for gold and silver are growing, and the dollar is getting cheaper.

 

Support and resistance levels

 

After a sharp decline since the beginning of the month, the pair XAG / USD was able to regain its upward momentum and is growing for the third consecutive week. The pair XAG/USD broke through the important resistance levels 17.37 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of correction to the pair growth from the end of December 2016 and the level 15.72), 17.53 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 17.77 (Fibonacci level 23,6%) and continues to grow to an important resistance level 18.40 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 0%).

The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side.

Against the backdrop of a weak dollar, the upward trend in the pair XAG / USD persists. The nearest target is level 18.40.

The reverse scenario implies a breakdown of support levels of 17.70, 17.61, 17.53 and a decline to support level of 17.37. The break of 17.37 level raises the risk of further decline in the pair XAG / USD and its return to the downtrend with a long target of 15.72 (low of 2016).

Support levels: 17.92, 17.77, 17.61, 17.53, 17.37

Resistance levels: 18.11, 18.40, 18.98

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 17.97. Stop-Loss 18.10. Take-Profit 17.92, 17.77, 17.61, 17.53, 17.37

Buy Stop 18.10. Stop-Loss 17.97. Take-Profit 18.20, 18.40, 18.98

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Brent: Trump stimulates oil production in the US_29/03/2017

 

Current dynamics

 

On Tuesday, Donald Trump signed a decree to repeal measures to protect the environment, which was introduced by Barack Obama. On the one hand, this shows the determination of Trump in pursuing his new economic policy and the desire to return the economy to traditional sources of energy, such as oil and coal. On the other hand, the decree is even more motivating for US oil and gas companies to increase oil production and accelerate the drilling of new wells. Last week, the number of active drilling oil rigs in the US increased by another 21 units to 625 units. The number of active drilling rigs in the US has been increasing since June for several months in a row, doubling after reaching a minimum in May last year.

The active growth in oil production, primarily in the US, negates OPEC's efforts to contain the fall in oil prices against the backdrop of an overabundance of oil supply in the world.

The active growth of oil prices, observed immediately after the signing of this agreement, stalled already at the beginning of this year. Since the beginning of March, there has been a sharp drop in oil prices. Moreover, the price decline occurs against the background of the weakening of the dollar. If the dollar begins to recover its positions in the foreign exchange market, then the fall in oil prices may accelerate.

Presented late last night, the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that oil reserves in the US for the past week increased by 1.9 million barrels. The official report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Ministry will be published today at 14:30 (GMT). The stock is expected to grow by 1.183 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products over the past week. Reserves of oil in the US are growing, again reaching a record high over the past 80 years, above 533 million barrels. Oil production in the US has been growing for the fifth consecutive week (up to 9.13 million barrels per day). If the data from the US Energy Ministry, which will be presented today, will be confirmed, then oil prices may continue to fall. The US Energy Ministry expects further growth in oil production in the country. And this means that oil prices, if they do not continue to fall, will not grow actively.

 

Support and resistance levels

 

The price of Brent crude oil, having fallen from the maximum annual markings near the level of 57.30, stabilized near key support levels 51.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.30 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to decrease from 65.30 from June 2015 to absolute minimums 2016 Year near the 27.00 mark). To determine the further dynamics of the price, new drivers are needed. The active growth of oil production and the growth of stocks in the US, as well as the Fed's inclination to a slower but gradual increase in the interest rate in the US, put pressure on oil prices.

If OPEC does not extend the agreement on limiting oil production, which ends in June, the price of oil will begin to decline rapidly. Fundamental drivers for the growth of oil prices yet.

In the case of breakdown of the support level of 50.30, the decline in the price of Brent oil may accelerate.

Only when the price returns above the resistance levels of 53.00 (June and October highs), 53.25 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), you can again seriously consider long positions.

Support levels: 51.50, 50.70, 50.30, 50.00, 49.00

Resistance levels: 52.29, 53.00, 53.25, 54.50, 55.30, 55.90, 57.30

 

Trading Scenarios

 

Sell ​​Stop 51.40. Stop-Loss 51.95. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.30, 50.00, 49.00

Buy Stop 51.95. Stop-Loss 51.40. Take-Profit 52.29, 53.00, 53.25, 54.50, 55.30, 55.90, 57.30

 

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GBP/USD: UK GDP in Q4_30 / 03/2017

Current dynamics

Nine months after the vote for secession from the EU, British Prime Minister Theresa May signed Wednesday a decree on the beginning of the British divorce proceedings with the European Union. The beginning of the two-year period of Brexit negotiations based on Article 50 of the Lisbon Agreement is laid. Now Great Britain will try to soften for itself the conditions of this process. Negotiations should begin within a few weeks; the most cautious forecast is until the end of the second quarter. The uncertainty of this process puts pressure on the pound.

On the other hand, Fed officials continue to signal that the US central bank is still prepared to continue raising rates this year. In their opinion, the Fed will raise the rate 2-3 times more this year.

Earlier in the week, the dollar appreciably weakened in the foreign exchange market after the Republicans withdrew from the Congress a bill on healthcare on Friday. This raised doubts about the Trump administration's ability to implement tax reforms and plans to stimulate the economy. However, published on Tuesday, data showed that consumer confidence in the US reached the highest level in 16 years. The dollar received support and was able to recover significantly in the foreign exchange market. Now, according to CME Group's data, the probability of a rate hike at the June Fed meeting is 53%.

It seems that market participants are not yet fully aware of the Fed's determination in this matter. As the June approach approaches, as the positive data from the United States come in, the dollar will gradually grow stronger in the foreign exchange market.

Tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT) will be published data on UK GDP for the 4th quarter. The country ranks first on the annual percentage growth of GDP among all the strongest economies of the world, and the share of the UK's GDP in the world GDP is about 4% (2nd place in Europe after Germany). GDP is considered an indicator of the overall state of the British economy. The growing trend of GDP is considered positive for GBP, and vice versa. An annual increase of 2.0% is expected. If GDP data turn out to be weak, this will directly affect the decision of the Bank of England to reduce the interest rate in the UK. And this will put downward pressure on the pound. The main factors that can force the Bank of England to lower the rate are a weak GDP growth, the labor market. However, the growing inflation in the country will have the opposite effect on the Bank of England in its decision to lower the interest rate. Positive macroeconomic reports of recent weeks suggest that the UK economy did not collapse after the referendum.

A strong GDP report will have the most positive impact on the pound's position and the British stock market.

Conversely, weak GDP will have a negative impact on the pound's quotes, including in the GBP / USD pair.

And today the attention of market participants will be focused on data on GDP and inflation indicators of the US for the 4th quarter. Strong GDP and inflation indexes can significantly reduce the doubts of market participants in the likelihood of a rate hike in the US already at the May or June meeting of the Fed.

 

Support and resistance levels

The pound continues to remain under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair is in a long-term downtrend since July 2014. Since yesterday, the GBP / USD pair has formed a short-term range between the support level of 1.2392 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and resistance level 1.2447 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The pair GBP / USD growth in the period of 1-2 weeks is limited by resistance level 1.2600 (EMA144 on the daily chart).

Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails. If the US GDP (published today) turns out to be strong, and the UK GDP (published tomorrow) will be weaker than the forecast (2.0%), then the GBP / USD pair will definitely break through the short-term support level 1.2392 and go towards the nearest support level 1.2150 (March lows) .

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily and 4-hour charts turned to the side of sellers.

The reverse scenario is related to breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.2447 and further growth to the level of 1.2600.

The different focus of monetary policies in the US and the UK, the withdrawal from the EU are powerful fundamental factors that prevent the GBP / USD pair from recovering significantly. Negative fundamental background creates prerequisites for further decline in the pair GBP / USD, the negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD is still predominant.

In case of breakdown of the local support level 1.2392, the pair GBP / USD decline will continue.

Support levels: 1.2392, 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000

Resistance levels: 1.2447, 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.2380. Stop-Loss 1.2460. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2460. Stop-Loss 1.2380. Take-Profit 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

 

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EUR/USD: the euro remains under pressure_31/03/2017

 

Current dynamics

 

During the day of active decline from the level of 1.0863, the pair EUR / USD lost about 1.8% (190 points). There is a small recovery in the opening of today's European session; however, the negative dynamics of the pair remains. This week, the most important macro data on the United States was published. The level of consumer confidence in the US in March reached a maximum in 16 years (125.6), surpassing the forecast of economists (114.0). Annual data on US GDP and price indices for the fourth quarter, published on Thursday, also proved very positive. GDP grew in the fourth quarter on updated data by 2.1%.

Today we are waiting for publication of important macroeconomic indicators for the USA, including inflation indices of personal consumption expenditure for February, from 15:30 to 17:00 (GMT + 3). However, gradually attention of investors is switching to the publication next Friday of data from the US labor market for March.

GDP growth, inflation dynamics and the labor market are key factors for the Fed in determining the need for and the rate of tightening (or easing) monetary policy in the US.

The US economy is recovering steadily after the crisis of 2007, and consumers are confident in the economic development of the country. Positive macro statistics coming from the US, as well as verbal intervention by the Fed representatives with regard to a further gradual increase in the interest rate in the US, contribute to the strengthening of the dollar.

On the part of the key representatives of the ECB, there are statements about the need to continue to maintain extra soft monetary policy in the Eurozone. The difference in monetary policy in the US and the Eurozone will continue to be the determining factor in the medium-term dynamics of the EUR / USD pair.

 

Support and resistance levels

 

The pair broke through the important support levels 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.0765 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA144 on the daily chart). At the beginning of today's European session, the pair EUR / USD is trying to stabilize at support level 1.0695 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Bonding above this level will mean the EUR / USD pair's return to the upward correction trend, which began in January.

A further decline will mean the end of the upward correction and the EUR / USD pair's return to the downtrend with the targets of 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485, and 1.0350. Long positions can be considered only when the pair returns above the level of 1.0765.

If the EUR / USD pair returns to the zone above the level of 1.0820, you can return to the purchases with medium-term objectives of 1.0950, 1.1000. For now, the negative background for the EUR / USD pair prevails.

Support levels: 1.0695, 1.0675, 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485

Resistance levels: 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0905

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.0670. Stop-Loss 1.0720. Objectives 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485

Buy Stop. Stop-Loss 1.0670. Objectives 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0890, 1.0905, 1.0940

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USD/JPY: the beginning of the new fiscal year in Japan_03/04/2017

Current dynamics

The new trade week that has begun is connected with important events in the world of international finance and the publication of important macroeconomic data. One of the focus of traders will be the publication on Wednesday (21:00 GMT + 3) of the protocol from the last March meeting of the FOMC, at which FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% to a level of 1.0%.

Markets have already played this event; however, investors will be interested to see the text of the minutes of this meeting. As a rule, FOMC meetings discuss, among other things, a schedule for raising (or lowering) the basic interest rate. The Fed comments to the last rate increase in March indicated a two-time rate increase this year. If the FOMC protocols contain signals for the possibility of three or four rate increases, the dollar can receive significant support. Therefore, the importance of publishing this protocol and its impact on the dollar quotes is difficult to overestimate.

At the same time, it is worth paying attention to the fact that in Japan, March 31 ended the fiscal year. Japanese taxpayers, including export companies, which completed the annual period of repatriation of capital to Japan, for the most part have already paid taxes. In this regard, the pressure on the yen, including the active purchases on the Japanese stock market, which occur, usually at the beginning of the new fiscal year in the first half of April, can dramatically increase. The Japanese stock index Nikkey225, which has a high correlation with the pair USD / JPY, may begin to grow actively until April 15.

In this regard, it is worth being prepared for the growth of the pair USD / JPY, especially if it is accompanied by the strengthening of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

From the news for today, we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:00 (GMT) will be published index of gradual acceleration of inflation, as well as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM, which is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole, for March. A number of representatives of the Federal Reserve gives a speech today (scheduled for today after 14:30 GMT). The US continues to receive positive macro statistics. Recently, representatives of the Fed sound hawkish notes regarding the plan for tightening monetary policy in the US. It is likely that today will not be an exception in the rhetoric of the representatives of the Fed. And if published earlier macro data on the US will again be positive, then the dollar will receive double support today.

 

Support and resistance levels

Earlier this week, the pair USD / JPY rebounded from the 110.10 support level (EMA144 on the weekly chart) and is trying to develop an upward trend, attempting to break through the short-term resistance level of 111.50 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

USD / JPY managed to gain a foothold above the important support level of 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The pair is growing in the rising short-term channel on the 1-hour chart and is currently near the lower border of this channel.

On the daily chart, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators shifted to the buyers’ side. In case of breakdown of the resistance level 111.50, the pair USD / JPY may continue to the resistance level 112.60 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper limit of the rising channel on the 1-hour chart). In case of consolidation of the pair USD / JPY above this level, the risks of further growth of the pair to the 115.00 level will increase.

The reverse scenario is related to the breakdown of the support level at 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90) and the resumption of the decline. The nearest target is level 110.10.

We follow the dynamics of the index of the Japanese stock market Nikkey225. The growth of the index on the background of active purchases at the beginning of the new financial year will pull the yen's sales, including in the pair USD / JPY. Positive dynamics of the pair USD / JPY is maintained, while the pair is above the support level of 111.15.

Support levels: 111.15, 110.10, 109.00

Resistance levels: 111.50, 112.60, 113.80, 115.00

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 111.50. Stop Loss 111.10. Take-Profit 112.00, 112.60, 113.80, 115.00

Sell ​​Stop 111.10. Stop Loss 111.50. Take-Profit 110.80, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50

 

 

 

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AUD/USD: interest rate unchanged_04/04/2017

Current dynamics

As expected, today the RBA did not change the interest rate in Australia, leaving it at 1.5%. The RBA's accompanying statement noted that the labor market has lost momentum, and inflation may grow slower than expected. As the RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted, "some indicators of the labor market have recently weakened." Weakening consumer spending and lowering inflation, as well as the continuing sharp rise in house prices, amid weakening labor market indicators, are the main risk factors for the RBA and the Australian economy. In this regard, economists believe, the RBA will refrain from changing interest rates in the country for the time being.

At this decision of the RBA, the Australian dollar reacted sharply lower, including in the pair AUD / USD. At the beginning of today's European session, the decline in the AUD / USD pair continued.

The different focus of monetary policies in the US and Australia will facilitate the flow of investment funds from the Australian dollar to the US dollar and further weakening of the AUD / USD.

 

Support and resistance levels

For the first two days of the new trading month, the AUD / USD pair has already lost 0.85%. If the decline continues at the same active pace, by the end of April, the AUD / USD pair will be seen near the 0.7300 mark. However, much in the dynamics of the AUD / USD pair will also depend on the dynamics of the US dollar. Tomorrow (18:00 GMT) the protocol will be published from the last March FOMC meeting, at which the rate was raised by 0.25% to a level of 1.0%. If the FOMC protocols contain signals for the possibility of three or four rate increases, the US dollar can receive significant support in the foreign exchange market.

The pair AUD / USD broke through important short-term support levels of 0.7632 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7622 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline to support level 0.7540 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

 Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

In case of deeper decline and breakdown of the support level of 0.7513 (38.2% Fibonacci level), the risks of further reduction of the AUD / USD pair will increase with a long-term target near the support level of 0.7155 (May lows, December 2016).

An alternative scenario for growth will become relevant in case of consolidation of the AUD / USD pair above the resistance levels 0.7622, ​​0.7632.

Support levels: 0.7540, 0.7513, 0.7448

Resistance levels: 0.7622, ​​0.7632, 0.7680, 0.7740, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7585. Take-Profit 0.7540, 0.7515, 0.7460

Buy Stop 0.7585. Stop-Loss 0.7555. Take-Profit 0.7622, ​​0.7632, 0.7680, 0.7740

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GBP/USD: deficit of the foreign trade balance of the UK increased_07/04/2017

 

Current dynamics

The deficit of foreign trade in goods in the UK in February (with correction) rose to 12.5 billion pounds (forecast was 10.7 billion pounds). At the same time, the foreign trade deficit for January was revised to 12.0 billion pounds from 10.8 billion pounds. Manufacture in the manufacturing sector of the UK in February fell by another 0.1% after a decrease of 0.9% in January. The level of industrial production in annual terms in February fell to 2.8% from 3.2% in January (the forecast was + 3.7%).

Such disenchanted investors data led today (08:30 GMT) by the British Office of National Statistics. In response to the data presented, the pound fell in the foreign exchange market. The pair GBP / USD lost 30 points in a moment. And the pressure on the pound and the GBP / USD pair persists.

Today in the foreign exchange market as a whole, the negative background prevails after it became known about the US missile strikes against Syria. There was a sharp increase in demand for yen and precious metals. These assets act as shelters during a political or financial crisis on the world stage.

June gold futures on the basis of yesterday's trading on COMEX rose by 0.4% to 1253.30 dollars per ounce. During the Asian session, the price-spot jumped above the level of 1265.00.

The pound is under pressure amid Brexit talks, when British Prime Minister Theresa May signed a decree last week to launch an official process for Britain's withdrawal from the European Union.

The focus of investors today will be the meeting of US President Donald Trump with Chinese President Xi Jingping and the publication of data from the US labor market in March (12:30 GMT). According to the forecast, an increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy (NFP) by 180,000 is expected (after an increase of 235,000 in February); unemployment should remain at 4.7%. If the average hourly earnings grow by more than 0.2% (as it was in February), the report will show a very stable labor market in the US, which will help to strengthen the positive sentiment of investors regarding the rapid rate increase in the US. This will cause the growth of the dollar. Conversely, a weak labor market report will weaken the US dollar, including in the GBP / USD pair.

 

Support and resistance levels

Starting in October, the pair GBP / USD traded mostly in the range between 1.2765 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and 1.2110. The peculiar midline of this range is the level of 1.2420. Currently, this line is the EMA50 line on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart. In the short term, the level of 1.2420 is a strong support level. Also on the 4-hour chart formed a tapering triangle, and the price is currently on the lower edge of the triangle.

Despite the indications OsMA and Stochastic, recommending sales, the rebound from the current level is likely to follow. Short-term objectives may be the levels of 1.2470, 1.2490, through which the upper line of the converging triangle passes. In case of breakdown of the level of 1.2490, further growth of the GBP / USD pair should be expected with the nearest targets of 1.2550 (April highs), 1.2590 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A more distant goal is the level of 1.2765.

If the GBP / USD pair returns to the zone below the level of 1.2420, its decline may resume. The nearest target is support level 1.2110.

The different focus of monetary policies in the US and the UK, the exit from the EU are powerful fundamental factors that put pressure on the GBP / USD pair.

Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD so far prevails.

Support levels: 1.2420, 1.2390, 1.2340, 1.2110, 1.2000

Resistance levels: 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700, 1.2800

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.2390. Stop-Loss 1.2450. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2100

Buy Stop 1.2450. Stop-Loss 1.2390. Take-Profit 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700.

 

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GBP/USD: inflation in the UK has risen sharply_10 / 04/2017

 

Current dynamics

The ambiguous US macro statistics released last week, as well as the growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the US missile strike in Syria, have led to an increase in volatility in the foreign exchange market.

Data on the US labor market, published last Friday, showed that the unemployment rate in March fell to 4.5%. However, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 98,000, while economists were expecting 175,000 jobs.

The dollar declined after the publication of the data, however, was able to regain its position in the foreign exchange market after the president of the Fed-New York, William Dudley, said that the Fed will begin to reduce its balance towards the end of the year. The portfolio of assets of the Federal Reserve is 4.5 billion dollars, and such actions will lead to an increase in the value of the dollar against bond sales and the growth of their yield. Dudley believes that a reduction in the Fed's portfolio will not lead to a slowdown in the rate of interest rates. Such actions of the Fed should lead to an increase in the value of the dollar and attract investors to its purchases.

Many economists equate the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet to a tightening of monetary policy, and this, as a rule, leads to an increase in the value of the dollar.

The pair GBP / USD hit on Friday under double pressure after the publication of disappointing data on industrial production in the UK for February.

This week, market participants will follow the UK inflation data, which will be released on Tuesday (08:30 GMT). At its last meeting, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, inflation in February reached a maximum in more than three years amid a sharp weakening of the pound (more than 20%) after the referendum for Britain's withdrawal from the EU. One member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank of Great Britain voted for an immediate increase in rates. Other members also signaled the possibility of such an increase in the near future.

Nevertheless, it will be difficult for the Bank of England to take such a step because of the drop in consumer spending amid a sharp weakening of the pound. Consumer spending is one of the key elements of UK GDP.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the speech of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, which will start at 20:10 (GMT).

 

Support and resistance levels

On Friday, the pair GBP / USD broke short-term support levels of 1.2450, 1.2415 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts).

The attempt of the upward correction, undertaken by the pair today, stalled near the resistance level 1.2400. The upward correction seems to have the end ahead of time, not reaching the level of resistance 1.2415.

The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily and weekly charts are on the side of sellers. On the 1-hour chart, the indicators also unfold to short positions.

Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails below the level of 1.2415. Only in case of consolidation above the level of 1.2450 can we return to consideration of long positions for the pair GBP / USD.

In case of breakdown at the level of 1.2490, further growth of the GBP / USD pair should be expected with the nearest targets of 1.2550 (April highs), 1.2590 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A more distant goal is the level of 1.2765.

A powerful fundamental factor in favor of short positions on the GBP / USD pair is the different orientation of monetary policies in the US and UK, the exit of the country from the European Union, the official start of which was laid in April.

Support levels: 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2110, 1.2000

Levels of resistance: 1.2415, 1.2450, 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700, 1.2800

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2415. Take-Profit 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2100

Buy Stop 1.2415. Stop-Loss 1.2385. Take-Profit 1.2450, 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700

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USD/CAD: Bank of Canada interest rate decision

11/04/2017

Current dynamics

The era of the extremely soft monetary policy of the US central bank is coming to an end. This was announced on Monday by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, stressing that "now the Fed gives the economy the opportunity to move by inertia, measuredly."

Published on Wednesday, the minutes of the March meeting of the Fed showed that the leaders of the Central Bank are inclined to start reducing the portfolio of treasury and mortgage bonds amounting to 4.5 trillion dollars. Many economists equate the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet to a tightening of monetary policy. This process, as a rule, leads to an increase in the value of the dollar. Sales of state bonds can pull up their profitability and the dollar.

Janet Yellen confirmed yesterday that the interest rate in the US will reach about 3% within two years (currently the current range is 0.75% -1.00%).

Janet Yellen also believes that in other developed countries, economic growth and inflation are recovering and, probably, central banks will begin to wind down stimulating programs.

In this regard, it will be interesting to find out tomorrow's decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate, which is published at 14:00 (GMT).

The current rate in Canada is 0.5%. Canada is a net exporter of oil, and oil is the country's main export commodity. The Canadian dollar, while remaining a commodity currency, is sensitive to oil quotations. The price of oil since the end of last month adjusted for 10% after the recent fall and continues to grow amid disruptions in supplies in Canada and Libya. At the same time, the Canadian dollar, which has a correlation with oil prices of 92%, since the middle of last month, practically stands still.

If tomorrow the Bank of Canada only hinted at the possibility of an early increase in the interest rate in Canada, the Canadian dollar will strengthen sharply in the foreign exchange market, including in the pair USD / CAD.

Conversely, the expressed tendency of the Bank of Canada to continue soft monetary policy will contribute to the weakening of the Canadian dollar.

In any case, during the publication of the Bank of Canada decision on the rate, the highest volatility is expected in the Canadian dollar and USD / CAD trades.

 

Support and resistance levels

Since the middle of last month, the pair USD / CAD is trading, mainly in the range between support levels 1.3300 and resistance 1.3430. At the moment, the pair USD / CAD found support near the levels 1.3340 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3315 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics do not give clear signals. A lot in the dynamics of the pair USD / CAD will depend on tomorrow's decision of the Bank of Canada on the rate and accompanying comments.

If the support level breaks 1.3300, the pair USD / CAD will go to support level 1.3240 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

The reverse scenario assumes a breach of the short-term resistance level of 1.3375 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and further growth in the uplink on the daily chart with targets of 1.3430, 1.3590.

Support levels: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3100, 1.3010, 1.2840, 1.2760, 1.2635

Levels of resistance: 1.3375, 1.3430, 1.3590, 1.3680

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3360. Stop-Loss 1.3320. Take-Profit 1.3375, 1.3430, 1.3590, 1.3680

Sell ​​Stop 1.3320. Stop-Loss 1.3360. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3100, 1.3010, 1.2840, 1.2760, 1.2635

 

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XAU / USD: gold is rising in price

12/04/2017

Overview and dynamics

The continuing geopolitical tensions continue to put pressure on profitable but risky assets, forcing investors to withdraw funds into safer assets - yen, government bonds, gold. June gold futures on the basis of trading on COMEX rose by 1.5% to 1,272.00 dollars per troy ounce, the highest level since early November. Quotes of gold rose to new annual and monthly highs. This year, gold prices rose by about 10%. At the beginning of the European session, the spot price for gold is near the mark of 1275.00, and prices do not seem to be going to retreat.

Gold began to rise sharply after it became known about the US missile strikes in Syria at the end of last week. And now, despite the Fed's tough position to raise the interest rate and reduce its balance of $ 4.5 trillion, gold is rising in price.

Gold is cheaper in the situation of an increase in the interest rate in the US, t. It is difficult for him to compete with interest-bearing assets. The cost of its acquisition and storage with a tightening of monetary policy is growing.

According to some economists, gold will grow this year in price above $ 1,300 per troy ounce and to $ 1,400 in 2018.

The focus of traders today will be a speech by US President Donald Trump (10:00 GMT) and the publication of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision (14:00 GMT). A little later (15:15), the Bank of Canada's press conference will begin, and at 20:15 the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz will begin.

Today, the highest volatility in the foreign exchange market is expected, especially at the above time intervals.

 

Technical analysis

The pair XAU / USD has closely approached the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the level of 1276.00 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016). Since mid-March, against the background of the weakening of the dollar, the pair XAU / USD is actively growing, blocking the decline observed at the beginning of last month.

The price of gold has reached the next annual maximum near the current mark. As long as the pair XAU / USD is above the support levels of 1233.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level of 50.0%), it keeps positive dynamics.

The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts are on the buyers side.

The closest target in case of breakdown of the level of 1276.00 and continuation of the growth of the pair XAU / USD will be 1300.00.

The reverse scenario will be associated with breakdown of support levels of 1263.00 and further decrease to key support levels of 1248.00, 1233.00. Securing the pair XAU / USD below the level of 1220.00 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the uptrend.

Support levels: 1251.00, 1248.00, 1238.00, 1233.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00

Levels of resistance: 1276.00, 1280.00

 

Trading recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1268.00. Stop-Loss 1278.00. Take-Profit 1251.00, 1248.00, 1238.00, 1233.00

Buy Stop 1278.00. Stop-Loss 1268.00. Take-Profit 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.0

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Brent: oil reserves in the US declined, but ...

13/04/2017

Current dynamics

Despite the reduction in oil reserves in the US storage facilities, oil prices fell on Wednesday. The price of Brent crude oil lost about $ 0.7 per barrel for yesterday. As reported on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, crude oil and petroleum products in the US last week fell by 2.166 million barrels (forecasted to increase by 0.087 million barrels). The fall in the price of oil, which is denominated in US dollars, did not even stop the sharp decline in the dollar in the foreign exchange market. The dollar began to fall on Wednesday at the end of the US trading session after Trump told The Wall Street Journal that the dollar is becoming "too strong" and the country "is very, very difficult to compete when the dollar is strong and other countries are lowering the value of their currencies ".

According to analysts of the oil market, the decline in oil prices could be due to the closure of long positions on oil and profit-taking on the eve of the holiday weekend. Tomorrow on Good Friday, trading in oil markets will not be held.

Also, the rise in oil prices could stop after the release of US data, according to which the country's oil production last week reached a maximum in more than a year. Now, production in the US has grown for the eighth week in a row. Oil production in the US in March increased to 9 million barrels per day against 8.6 million barrels per day in September last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted.

Oil prices rose by about 20% from the end of last year after OPEC and the 11 largest oil-producing countries outside the cartel, including Russia, agreed to cut their total output by 1.8 million barrels per day for six months. Quotas are currently being observed almost 100%.

Nevertheless, the active growth of oil production outside the cartel, primarily in the US, negates OPEC's efforts to contain the fall in oil prices against the backdrop of an overabundance of oil supply in the world.

Since the middle of last month, rising oil prices have resumed against the backdrop of a falling dollar and interruptions in oil supplies from Libya and Canada. If the dollar begins to recover its positions in the foreign exchange market, then the fall in oil prices may resume.

As predicted by the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to the monthly report, the world growth rate of oil demand in 2017 will slow for the second consecutive year. The agency predicts that oil production in the US by the end of this year will grow by 680,000 barrels per day compared with the end of 2016. Oil production outside OPEC this year could thus increase by 485,000 barrels per day.

On Friday at 20:00 (GMT + 3) will be published data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes Inc. for the number of active drilling platforms in the US. It is likely that the number of active drilling rigs in the US, which has been growing since June for several months in a row and currently stands at 672 units, will grow again. And this will be another negative factor for oil prices. The number of oil drilling rigs almost doubled after reaching a minimum in May last year. The US Energy Ministry expects further growth in oil production in the country.

 

Support and resistance levels

Despite the resumption of growth since the middle of last month, the price for Brent crude is below the highs reached after the OPEC deal to cut production. The price is again in the zone of strong resistance level 55.60 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

On the weekly chart, the price is rising in the uplink, and the OsMA and Stochastic indicators are on the buyers’ side. On the daily chart, the price is on the upper boundary of the descending channel, and the indicators unfold to short positions. The picture is controversial.

If the short-term 54.90 support level is broken (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), a decline to support levels of 54.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart, as well as EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 53.00 (June and October highs) is possible. In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and fixing below the level of 50.00, the upward trend in the price for Brent crude oil will be canceled.

Update yesterday's highs near the mark of 56.80 will indicate a further increase in the price of Brent crude oil.

Support levels: 55.60, 54.90, 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70

Resistance levels: 56.80, 57.00, 57.50

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 55.70. Stop-Loss 56.50. Take-Profit 55.60, 54.90, 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70

Buy Stop 56.50. Stop-Loss 55.70. Take-Profit 56.80, 57.00, 57.50

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EUR/USD: in financial markets flat

14/04/2017

Current dynamics

In connection with the Easter holidays today in financial markets flat. Trades on European and American trading floors are not held. Trading volumes are low.

After a sharp decline yesterday, the dollar was able to recover in the pair EUR / USD. After Wednesday afternoon at the end of the trading day, Donald Trump said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the dollar is becoming "too strong," and American goods are "very, very difficult to compete" in a situation where "other countries reduce the value of their currencies" , the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market.

Investors in the current situation prefer to withdraw their funds into safe assets, such as government bonds, yen, and gold. So, against the background of increased purchases, the yield of US 10-year government bonds fell to 2.237% on Thursday, the lowest level since November 16.

The alarming geopolitical situation in the world is also not conducive to the purchase of risky assets. The euro is also under pressure on the background of the pre-election race in France. If the victory is won by political leaders opposing the euro integration, then, still not recovering from Brexit, the euro can get another strong blow to its positions in the foreign exchange market. Thus, the EUR / USD pair has its own scenario at the moment.

In general, recently, against the background of an abundance of various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, there is a multidirectional dynamics of the dollar and uncertainty of investors. This, again, increases the demand for safe haven assets. Gold has been growing in price since the middle of last month and is already the fifth consecutive session, updating annual price highs.

Flat in the financial markets can last until Tuesday. Nevertheless, you need to be prepared for unexpected price emissions, and, in any direction against the backdrop of low trading volumes.

Especially, it can happen during the news publication period. We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 15:30 (GMT + 3) will be published inflationary consumer price indices and retail sales in the US for March. Strong data will help strengthen the dollar, and sharply. Weak data can contribute to an equally active decline in the dollar. By the end of the trading day, the dollar and the EUR / USD pair are likely to return to the levels of today's opening.

 

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart of the pair EUR / USD, a tapering triangle formed. The upper line of the triangle is currently near the level of 1.0795 and roughly corresponds to the 200-period moving average on the daily chart. The lower line of the tapering triangle corresponds to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart, passing near the level of 1.0580. The tapering triangle is a trend continuation figure. And since the downtrend prevails, it is more likely to break the lower boundary of the triangle (level 1.0580), followed by a decrease in the EUR / USD pair.

However, until this moment, the pair EUR / USD can still be repeatedly adjusted and "go down" to the upper limit of the triangle and the level of 1.0795. And instead of the expected breakdown of the level of 1.0580, rebound and growth may follow. So far, the negative dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is prevailing, while it is below the short-term resistance levels 1.0638, 1.0668 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts).

In the case of consolidating a pair above the level of 1.0668, it is highly probable that it will continue to increase to resistance levels 1.0735 (EMA144), 1.0795 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

The probability of such a scenario is signaled by the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which turned on long positions on the 4-hour and daily charts.

If the negative background is maintained against the dollar, then the probability of the EUR / USD pair strengthening scenario will increase.

And, conversely, as geopolitical tension decreases, investors' attention will again switch to positive macroeconomic indicators from the US. In this case, the dollar's growth will resume, and the pair EUR / USD will again be under pressure and will finally break through the support level of 1.0580.

In case of further reduction, the targets will be the levels of 1.0530, 1.0500, and 1.0350. Long positions can be considered when returning a pair above the level of 1.0668.

 

Support levels: 1.0580, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0485

Resistance levels: 1.0638, 1.0668, 1.0690, 1.0735, 1.0795

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.0595. Stop-Loss. Objectives 1.0580, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0485

Buy Stop 1.0645. Stop-Loss 1.0595. Objectives 1.0668, 1.0690, 1.0735, 1.0795

 

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AUD/USD: data on China supported the Australian dollar_17/04/2017

 

Current dynamics

According to data published this morning, China's industrial production in March rose by 7.6% yoy (the previous value of 6.3%), retail sales in China in March grew by 10.9% in annual terms (the previous value of + 9.5%), China's GDP in the 1st quarter grew by 6.9% in annual terms (the previous value + 6.8%). Strong data on China contributed to the strengthening of the Australian dollar. China is the largest trade and economic partner and buyer of primary commodities in Australia, primarily coal, iron ore, liquefied gas. Therefore, strong macroeconomic indicators from China have a positive impact on the quotes of the Australian currency.

At the same time, the US dollar continues to win back weak data on retail sales in the US for March, which was published on Friday in closed trading on European and American exchanges. Retail sales in the US in March declined for the second month in a row, with a two-month dynamics was the worst for more than 2 years. The basic consumer price index also fell, which occurred for the first time since January 2010.

The weakening of inflationary pressures, after Donald Trump's negative comments on a strong dollar, can significantly reduce the enthusiasm of investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar. The rate of inflation, along with data on GDP and the labor market in the US are key factors for the Fed in terms of further interest rate increases.

 Slowing down the pace of inflation could force the Fed to reconsider its tough stance on US monetary policy plans.

Tomorrow at 01:30 (GMT) the protocol will be published from the last April meeting of the RBA on Monetary Policy. As you know, at the beginning of the month the RBA kept the current interest rate at the same level of 1.5%. The fall in commodity prices in recent years, a fairly high level of unemployment in the country (the last 10 years, unemployment is close to 6.0%), a weak increase in wages of employees, which does not contribute to the growth of consumer spending, as well as weak, according to the RBA, GDP growth - these are the main risks for the Australian economy.

Most likely, the RBA protocol will become aware of the intention to continue to maintain a soft monetary policy in Australia.

If the protocols contain harsh rhetoric about monetary policy in the country, then the Australian dollar can be strengthened in the currency market at once and fairly sharply.

 

Support and resistance levels

On the general weakening of the US dollar, the AUD / USD pair was able to grow and gain a foothold above the key levels of 0.7535 (EMA200), 0.7555 (EMA144 on the daily chart). At the moment, the pair AUD / USD is at a strong resistance level of 0.7590 (EMA50 on the day, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastic draw a contradictory picture. If the indicators on the weekly chart are on the side of the sellers, then on the 4-hour and daily charts the indicators are turned to long positions.

The current level of 0.7590 is the key for guiding the further movement of the AUD / USD pair. In case of rebound from the level of 0.7590 and return below the short-term support level of 0.7550 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the further decline of the AUD / USD pair is likely.

The fall in the pair AUD / USD under the level of 0.7535 will return it to a downtrend.

An alternative scenario is associated with a further weakening of the US dollar and breakdown of the resistance level at 0.7590. If this scenario is implemented, the pair AUD / USD with targets 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 is likely to grow (Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the fall wave of the pair from July 2014 and EMA144 on the weekly chart).

 The medium-term positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair may remain as long as the pair is above the support level of 0.7535.

Support levels: 0.7555, 0.7535, 0.7460

Resistance levels: 0.7590, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7575. Stop-Loss 0.7610. Take-Profit 0.7555, 0.7535, 0.7460, 0.7400

Buy Stop 0.7610. Stop-Loss 0.7575. Take-Profit 0.7635, 0.7650, 0.7680, 0.7740, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

 

 

170417-_AU-d.png

 

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Brent: prices are falling again_18/04/2017

Current dynamics

After the Easter weekend, oil prices are declining for the second consecutive day. Investors are trying to assess the strong oil demand in China, on the one hand, and the increase in oil production in the US, on the other hand. In China, there is a higher growth of the national economy in the 1st quarter. It is likely that the impetus for growth in the PRC will remain at least in the first half of this year. Against this background, oil imports to the PRC in March reached a record high.

After the US Energy Ministry reported that the production of shale oil in the seven oil-rich regions of the country could grow by another 2.5% per day in May, compared with the forecast, oil prices fell by about 1% on Monday. If this happens, the monthly increase will be the strongest in two years.

Many analysts of the oil market believe that in the next two years the production of shale oil in the US may exceed forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil production in the US by the end of this year will grow by 680,000 barrels per day compared to the end of 2016. Oil production outside OPEC this year could thus increase by 485,000 barrels per day.

The next meeting of the cartel, which may decide to extend the deal to reduce oil production, will be held on May 25. If hopes do not materialize, oil quotes may fall sharply.

Today at 20:30 (GMT), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its report on changes in oil reserves in the US over the past week. And on Wednesday at 14:30 the Ministry of Energy of the United States publishes a weekly report on oil and petroleum products in the US storage. Reduction of reserves favorably affects oil prices, and vice versa. The growth of stocks puts pressure on oil prices.

 

Support and resistance levels

With the opening of the current week, the price of oil is declining. During the European session, the price reached a short-term support level of 55.20 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.

If the decline continues, the price for Brent crude will reach support level 54.28 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart).

With further decrease, the targets will be support levels of 53.00 (June and October highs), 52.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70. In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and fixing below the level of 50.00, the upward trend in the price for Brent crude oil will be canceled.

However, from the current level of 55.20 it is also highly probable that there will be a retreat and a resumption of growth.

Updating the monthly highs near the 56.70 mark will indicate a further increase in the price of Brent crude oil.

Support levels: 55.20, 54.28, 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70

Levels of resistance: 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

 

Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 54.85. Stop-Loss 55.60. Take-Profit 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70

Buy Stop 55.60. Stop-Loss 54.85. Take-Profit 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

 

180417-_Brent-_D.png

 

180417-_Brent-_H4.png

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GBP/USD: Theresa May's decision has crumbled European stock markets _19/04/2017

 

Current dynamics

After yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections, the British stock market collapsed. Following the index FTSE100, which lost almost 2.9%, followed all the European major stock indexes. Sale on the stock markets of the UK and Europe caused a sharp strengthening of the pound and the euro. The pair GBP / USD rose yesterday almost by 350 points, to the level of 1.2900, however, to the close of yesterday's trading day fell to the level of 1.2840.

The pound grew throughout the currency market, Investors expect that early general elections in the UK will allow Prime Minister Theresa May to consolidate the dominant position of the Conservative Party in parliament on the eve of the June elections in order to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If the Conservative Party has more seats in the parliament, this will neutralize the influence of supporters of the tough scenario Brexit. Then the pound can get even stronger. At its last meeting, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, inflation in February reached a maximum in more than three years amid a sharp weakening of the pound (more than 20%) after the referendum for Britain's exit from the EU. Recent positive macroeconomic data from the UK, as well as sharply increased inflation in the country, suggest that the Bank of England may return to the issue of raising the interest rate in the UK. And this is a positive factor for the pound.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 18:00 (GMT) of the Fed's economic review (Beige Book), which examines the current situation in the US economy. Optimistic views of economists, reflected in the review, will help strengthen the US dollar, and pessimistic - weaken the USD.

 

Support and resistance levels

Yesterday, after Theresa May announced her decision, the pound and GBP / USD pair rose sharply. The pair GBP / USD broke through an important resistance level of 1.2770 (EMA200 on the day market).

At the same time, the US dollar regains its position in the foreign exchange market. In the GBP / USD pair, correction may also begin. The immediate goal of the decline in this case will be the level of 1.2770.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts were deployed to short positions.

The reverse scenario will be associated with the further growth of the GBP / USD pair in case of consolidation above the current high near the 1.2860 mark.

 Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails below the level of 1.2770. Only in the case of consolidation above the level of 1.2900 (yesterday's highs) can we consider the long positions for the pair GBP / USD.

Support levels: 1.2770, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2110

Resistance levels: 1.2905, 1.3000, 1.3350

 

Trading scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2865. Take-Profit 1.2770, 1.2590, 1.2485

Buy Stop 1.2860. Stop-Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2905, 1.3000, 1.3100

 

190417-_GU-d.png

 

190417-_GU-h4.png

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XAU/USD: The dollar is in no rush to take positions

20/04/2017

Current Dynamics

While the euro and the pound are growing again in the foreign exchange market, the dollar is in no rush to retreat against the yen and gold, which are asset-seekers. So, with the opening of today's trading day after the active decline in the day before, the pair XAU / USD is trading in a narrow range near the level of 1276.00 dollars per troy ounce. If the pound and the euro are moving at the moment in the foreign exchange market according to their scenario, the precious metals and, in particular, gold, after reaching the local annual highs at the beginning of this week, stopped rising.

If the elections in France are completed safely for the euro, i.e. If candidates from the extreme left and extreme right do not win, then the situation in the financial markets will calm down a little. The threat of a sovereign default of France and its withdrawal from the EU will be lifted.

Nevertheless, while the uncertainty with the elections in France exists, as well as the threat of sales of France's sovereign debt of about 1 trillion euros, gold will not be cheaper, despite the Fed's plans to tighten monetary policy and reduce its budget.

Boston Federal Reserve Bank manager Eric Rosengren said on Wednesday that the Fed should begin the process of reducing its asset portfolio "the sooner, the better." This will allow the Fed to raise short-term interest rates without harm to the economy, according to Rosengren. He also noted that the interest rate should be the "main mechanism" affecting the state of the US economy. Thus, the Fed continues to receive signals for a gradual tightening of monetary policy in the US.

Gold is cheaper in the situation of an increase in the interest rate in the US, t. It is difficult for him to compete with interest-bearing assets. The cost of its acquisition and storage with a tightening of monetary policy is growing.

The restraining factor from the decline in the price of gold is still geopolitical instability in the world and the position of US President Donald Trump, who repeatedly spoke in favor of a cheap dollar. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, he said that the dollar "is becoming too strong" for US goods to compete successfully in the market.

Of the expected news for today, it is worth paying attention to data from the United States. At 12:30 (GMT), a weekly report from the US Department of Labor on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits is published. According to the forecast, the number of benefits is expected to increase to 242,000 (against 234,000 last week). If the data turn out to be worse, it will negatively affect the dollar, and vice versa, a low result will strengthen the dollar.

During the period from 15:30 to 17:30, several key figures of the world financial market, Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney and US Treasury Secretary Stephen Munchin are expected to perform. In this period of time, a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market, including XAU / USD.

 

Support and resistance levels

With the opening of today's trading day, the pair XAU / USD is trading near support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and EMA144 on the 1-hour chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts are deployed to short positions.

In case of breakdown of support levels 1277.00, 1274.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline in the pair XAU / USD will accelerate. The immediate targets will be support levels 1260.00 (February and March highs), 1253.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50.0%). Fixing of XAU/USD below the levels of 1235.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1220.00 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the uptrend.

Nevertheless, while the pair XAU / USD is above the support level of 1248.00, it keeps positive dynamics. The closest target in the case of continued growth of the pair XAU / USD will be the level of 1300.00. But for this, the pair XAU / USD needs to gain a foothold above the local maximum near the 1292.00 mark (April highs).

Support levels: 1277.00, 1274.00, 1260.00, 1253.00, 1248.00, 1235.00, 1220.00

Levels of resistance: 1287.00, 1292.00, 1300.00

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1273.00. Stop-Loss 1284.00. Take-Profit 1260.00, 1253.00, 1248.00, 1235.00, 1220.00

Buy Stop 1284.00. Stop-Loss 1273.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00

 

200417-_XU-_H4.png

 

200417-_XU-d.png

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DJIA: Stephen Mnuchin cheered up investors

21/04/2017

 

Current Dynamics

US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said in his yesterday's speech that the tax reform plan will appear "very, very soon". This plan will be "decisive, substantial and will be the main priority for President Trump." After the presidential elections in the US against the backdrop of Donald Trump's pre-election promises to carry out tax reforms and stimulate fiscal policy, American stock markets and indices were actively growing, and government bonds were subject to large-scale sales. Now the US stock markets are seeing the opposite picture.

Investors are still being pressured by increased geopolitical tensions in the world after US missile strikes against Syria. The growing tensions between the US and North Korea also do not contribute to an increase in appetite for the purchase of risky assets. Investors once again prefer government bonds and other assets-seekers - gold and yen.

Also the general picture spoils some negative macro data coming from the USA. So, the data released yesterday by the US Department of Labor showed a reduction in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits last week and an increase in the number of initial applications (244,000 versus 234,000 last week). The index of production activity, which is interrelated with the ISM index, fell to 22 points in April (against 32.8 in March).

Nevertheless, the main US stock indexes have grown today thanks to reports of companies exceeding the expectations of economists. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Thursday by 0.9% to 20582 points, S & P500 - by 0.8%, Nasdaq Composite - by 0.9%. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds against their sales rose to 2.257% from 2.202% on Wednesday, which also helped strengthen the dollar. US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin cheered up investors, giving them hope that Trump's plan to stimulate the US economy would still be realized.

Today, the financial markets have a low activity of traders on the eve of the first round of the presidential elections in France, which will be held this Sunday. The risk that the results of the elections could violate the integrity of the EU, still hinders investors from actively operating in the financial markets. If Marin Le Pen wins, which promised to withdraw France from the European Union, then the euro and European stock markets could literally collapse. Following them, American stock markets can follow. The demand for gold and yen will grow sharply.

Of the news for today is worth highlighting data from the United States. At 13:45 (GMT), indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector and service sector (PMI) from Markit for the US for April (preliminary value) are published. The index is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole. At 13:30, the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neil Kashkari begins, which is likely to follow the statements of other representatives of the Fed on the monetary policy in the US in general, and will favor an early increase in the rate in the US and a reduction in the Fed's budget. This will have a positive effect on the dollar, but is unlikely to support the US stock indexes.

 

Support and resistance levels

From the beginning of the previous month, the DJIA index, in general, is declining. With the absolute highs reached at the end of February near the 21170.0 mark, the DJIA index lost about 3.5%, having fallen to the current level of 20600.0. However, after yesterday's statements by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, the DJIA index rose, broke through the short-term resistance level of 20555.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), however, it was suspended by resistance level 20620.0 (the upper limit of the descending channel and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour chart again unfolds to short positions.

If the DJIA index returns below the level of 20555.0, then its decline may continue to the nearest support level of 20360.0 (the lower limit of the descending channels on the 4-hour and daily charts).

If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may extend to the support levels of 1990.0 (December highs), 19850.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark 21160.0). Further decline and breakdown 19600.0 level (EMA200 on the daily chart) will be critical for the bullish trend of the DJIA index.

To return to the purchases, the index must be fixed above the level 20750.0 (the upper limit of the range between the levels 20750.0 and 20360.0). While short-term downward correctional dynamics prevails.

Support levels: 20555.0, 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0, 19600.0

Resistance levels: 20620.0, 20750.0, 20886.0, 20980.0, 21170.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 20650.0. Stop-Loss 20540.0. Take-Profit 20750.0, 20886.0, 20980.0, 21170.0, 22000.0

Sell Stop 20540.0. Stop-Loss 20650.0. Take-Profit 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0, 19600.0

 

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210417-_DJIA-h4.png

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EuroStoxx50: Centrist Emmanuel Macron leads the presidential race

24/04/2017

Current dynamics

According to the latest information, during the first round of the presidential elections in France, Emmanuel MacRon won 23.9% of the vote, the second among Marin Le Pen with 21.4%. It is likely that during the second round of elections, Macron can defeat Le Pen. Conservative Francois Fillon, who took third place, has already called on his supporters to vote for Macron.

Macro's economic policy is favorable for the Eurozone and European financial markets. In the implementation of its economic program, the former Minister of Economy centrist Macron plans to reduce taxes for companies and increase public investment by 50 billion euros. Macron also advocates the expansion of economic partnership within the Eurozone, primarily with Germany. The victory of Macron during the first round of elections can provoke the growth of demand for euro and European assets.

According to EPFR Global, the inflow of funds into the market of shares in the region is increasing, the funds have already begun moving to the European market. The macroeconomic statistics of the Eurozone is improving, the stocks have appreciably fallen in price since the beginning of the month, and all points to the probability of activization of buyers of European assets after the elections in France. So, according to the latest data, business activity in France is growing at the fastest pace in almost six years. IHS Markit's purchasing managers' index in March was 57.1 (the value above 50 indicates activity growth).

Nevertheless, one should be careful when opening long positions on the EuroStoxx50 index this week. On Thursday (11:45 GMT) the ECB's interest rate decision will be published in the Eurozone. The modest growth rates of the Eurozone economy remain, the unemployment rate still remains at high levels (about 9.5%), and annual inflation fell to 1.5% in March against 2% in February, again below the ECB's target level.

As several ECB leaders announced last week, it is not yet time to make changes in the monetary and credit policy of the bank. "The recovery of the economy is still unstable," despite signs of improving the economic situation in the Eurozone. The next meeting of the ECB will be held on April 26-27, and, according to the statements of key figures of the ECB leadership, the European Central Bank will not change the extra soft monetary policy.

And this will become a supporting factor for the European stock market. At the same time, the victory of Macron can give the European Central Bank an opportunity to consider the question of the beginning of the curtailment of the stimulation of the Eurozone economy. If during the next press conference the head of the ECB Mario Draghi only hints at the possibility of starting the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone, the European stock indexes will react with a decrease.

If the ECB declares the continuation of the economic stimulus program, the rally on the European stock markets will continue, given the victory of Macron in the first round of elections and the increase in the probability of his victory in the second round of elections.

 

Support and resistance levels

The EuroStoxx50 index has been actively growing since the beginning of December and began to decline in April ahead of the presidential elections in France. Having opened with a gap up, the EuroStoxx50 index today broke through an important resistance level of 3515.0 (the Fibonacci level is 100% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015) and exceeded this level by 50 points. At the beginning of today's European session, the EuroStoxx50 index trades near the level of 3568.0 (the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts turned to long positions. If the positive dynamics continue, the EuroStoxx50 index will continue to rise in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 3680.0 (July highs of 2015).

An alternative scenario for the decline of the index will be linked both to the results of the second round of elections in France, if Marin Le Pen wins, or to the position of the ECB if the bank signals for the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone.

The signal for opening of the medium-term short positions on the EuroStoxx50 index will be a breakdown of the support level 3400.0 (EMA50 and the lower limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

In this case, the reduction targets will be support levels 3325.0 (January highs), 3240.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Positive dynamics is maintained, while the EuroStoxx50 index is above the levels of 3240.0, 3200.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015).

Support levels: 3515.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0, 3200.0

Resistance levels: 3578.0, 3600.0, 3680.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 3510.0 Stop-Loss 3560.0. Take-Profit 3470.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0

Buy Stop 3585.0. Stop-Loss 3545.0. Take-Profit 3600.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

 

240417-_E50-w.png

 

240417-_E50-d.png

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XAG/USD: precious metals are getting cheaper

25/04/2017

Current Dynamics

The victory of Macron in the first round of the presidential elections in France reduced investors' anxiety over the possible victory of the far-right candidate Marin Le Pen in the French elections. As you know, Marin Le Pen acts with a radical program on migration, as well as the continued presence of France within the European Union and NATO.

If Macron succeeds in winning in the second round, this will be the second defeat of the supporters of secession from the European Union after the Netherlands. And this, in turn, will revive the propensity of investors to buy risky assets and lower prices for precious metals.

So, the June gold futures on COMEX fell yesterday in the price to the level of 1277.50 dollars per troy ounce, the lowest closing level since April 7, showing the strongest daily decline since March 10.

The spot price for silver is also declining today, continuing the series of falls from recent monthly and annual highs near the level of 18.55 dollars per troy ounce. The decrease from this level was already 4.2%.

And yet, on the eve of the second round of the presidential elections in France (the vote will be held on May 7), the weakening of the US dollar, the continuing geopolitical uncertainty will contribute to the preservation of demand for precious metals.

Investors are also concerned about the uncertainty regarding the timing of the start of the tax reform of US President Donald Trump, although the plan for reform Trump promised to present this week.

If the Fed starts implementing a plan to reduce its budget and increase the interest rate, as well as the first positive results in the implementation of the new economic policy in the US, the dollar will receive a powerful impetus to resume large-scale growth. This will lead to lower prices for precious metals, including silver.

Today we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:00 (GMT), the US consumer confidence level for March is published, as well as data on sales of new housing in the US in March. These data are an important indicator of consumer confidence in the growth of the economy and the US real estate market. The increase in sales of houses also contributes to stimulating the accompanying spheres of industry, services, and the labor market. A high result strengthens the US dollar, low - weakens. Forecast: the level of consumer confidence will come out with a value of 123.7 (compared to 125.6 in February), sales of new homes in March decreased by 0.5%. If the forecast is confirmed or is worse, the dollar will react with a decline.

In any case, during the publication of data, the volatility in the dollar is expected to grow, including in the pair XAG / USD.

 

Support and resistance levels

The pair XAG / USD continues the almost non-stop decline for the seventh consecutive session.

The XAG / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 18.17 (the Fibonacci level of 50% of corrective growth to the fall of the pair since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 17.94 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline to an important support level of 17.58 (EMA200 on the daily chart And the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

The break at the level of 17.58 raises the risk of further reduction of the pair XAG / USD and its return to a downtrend with a long-term target of 15.72 (the low of 2016).

You can return to consideration of long positions after fixing the pair above the level of 17.94.

Support levels: 17.58, 17.10, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Levels of resistance: 17.94, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 17.77. Stop-Loss 17.92. Take-Profit 17.58, 17.10, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Buy Stop 17.92. Stop-Loss 17.77. Take-Profit 18.00, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75

 

250417-_XG-d.png

 

 

 

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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AUD/USD: data on inflation did not meet expectations_26/04/2017

 

Current dynamics

After this morning, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the RBA published the most important inflation indices in Australia (CPI for the first quarter of this year, the RBA index of core inflation by the truncated average method for the first quarter), the Australian dollar declined in the foreign exchange market.

Although the inflation rate returned to the central bank's target range of 2% -3%, the data on the rate of price growth turned out to be weaker than expected. Consumer prices in the first quarter increased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (by 2.1% in annual terms). The forecast provided for an increase in consumer prices by 0.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2016 and by 2.3% compared to the same period last year.

According to economists, the acceleration of inflation caused a sharp rise in prices for gasoline. The rise in prices in the long term is likely to remain slowed due to pressure from record low wages growth rates and deterioration of the labor market situation.

The fall in commodity prices in recent years, a fairly high level of unemployment in the country (the last 10 years, unemployment is close to 6.0%), a weak increase in wages of employees, which does not contribute to the growth of consumer spending, as well as weak, according to the RBA , GDP growth - these are the main risks for the Australian economy.

It is likely that interest rates will remain the same for some time.

Another factor put pressure on commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar, this week. The US decided to introduce import duties on wood from Canada. This news testifies to the strengthening of protectionism in world trade by the US, and this has a negative impact on commodity currencies.

Now investors will focus on Donald Trump's tax reform plan in the US, which he promised to present today. If the plan turns out to be clear in terms of dates and details, this could lead to an increase in the US dollar throughout the market.

On Thursday - the speech of the Governor of the RBA Philip Lowey. The exact time of his speech has not yet been determined. But, most likely, his speech will not contain anything new about the monetary policy of the RBA. It is likely that the comments of Philip Lowe will not affect the quotations of the Australian dollar.

 

Support and resistance levels

After the publication of inflation indicators, the pair AUD / USD declined during today's Asian session. During the last three trading sessions, the AUD / USD pair is declining. Today, the pair pushed away from the key resistance level 0.7535 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and with the opening of the European session, the decline in the AUD / USD pair continued.

Negative dynamics of the pair, it seems, is growing. The breakdown of support levels of 0.7475 (April lows and the lower border of the downward channel on the daily chart), 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of a 23.6% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014) will increase the risks of return to the downtrend of the AUD / USD pair, which began in July 2014 of the year. The medium-term goal of this decline will be the level of 0.7155 (May and December minima of 2016).

 The alternative scenario is related to the further weakening of the US dollar and the return of the pair AUD / USD above resistance levels 0.7535, 0.7570 (EMA200 and the top line of the descending channel on the 4-hour chart). If this scenario is implemented, the pair AUD / USD will grow with the targets of 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the fall wave of the pair from July 2014 and EMA144 on the weekly chart).

 The medium-term positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair may recover already when the AUD / USD pair returns to the zone above the 0.7535 level.

Support levels: 0.7475, 0.7460, 0.7330

Resistance levels: 0.7535, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7480. Stop-Loss 0.7520. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7400, 0.7330

Buy Stop 0.7520. Stop-loss 0.7480. Take-Profit 0.7535, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

 

260417-_AU-d.png

 

260417-_AU-h4.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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EuroStoxx50: European indices fell from the highs

27/04/2017

Current dynamics

Prior to the publication of the interest rate decision and the ECB's press conference, the major European stock indexes are declining from the new annual highs achieved 3 days ago after the victory of Macron in the first round of the presidential elections in France.

The decision on the interest rate of the ECB will be published at 11:45 (GMT). "The recovery of the Eurozone economy is still unstable, despite signs of improving the economic situation," - more recently, ECB executives commented on economists' forecasts about the possibility of raising interest rates and curtailing the QE program in the euro area.

The ECB's main interest rate is currently 0%, the deposit rate for commercial banks is negative and is -0.4%. From the beginning of April, within the framework of the QE program, the ECB plans to purchase European assets worth 60 billion euros by the end of 2017. It is widely expected that today the ECB will not take any action with regard to interest rates. At a subsequent press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to confirm the policy of maintaining the soft monetary policy of the bank. The press conference will begin at 12:30 (GMT).

It is unlikely that the ECB will go to change the QE program on the eve of the second stage of the presidential elections in France, which will be held on May 7. However, some economists believe that at the June meeting, the ECB may announce changes in the current QE program. The Eurozone economy is slowly but still recovering. So, according to the data published today, the confidence index in the industry of the Eurozone in April rose by 2.6 versus +1.3 in March, the index of trust in services in April was +14.2 versus +12.8 in March. The index of sentiment in the economy of the Eurozone in April rose to 109.6 against 108.0 in March, thus reaching its highest level since August 2007. However, unemployment still remains at high levels (about 9.5%), and annual inflation fell in March to 1.5% against 2% in February, again below the ECB's target level.

For the market, it will be a big surprise if Mario Draghi declares that it is possible to consider the issue of curtailing or changing the QE program in the direction of reducing support for the region's economy at the ECB's next meeting. The balance of the ECB at $ 4.5 trillion can surpass the Fed's balance already next week. Reducing the balance will be tantamount to a tightening of the monetary policy of the ECB. In this case, the euro will rise sharply, and European stock indexes will fly down. The situation with the elections in France in this case will take a back seat.

Nevertheless, according to most market participants, today Mario Draghi's rhetoric will remain unchanged soft, and interest rates will remain at the same level. The reaction of European indices to such a decision of the ECB is expected to be restrained-positive.

 

Support and resistance levels

After a sharp rise against the backdrop of Macro's victory in the first round of elections in France, the last three days the EuroStoxx50 index is gradually decreasing. The day before the EuroStoxx50 index reached new highs for the last more than 2.5 years near the mark of 3590.0. Through this level, now passes the upper limit of the newly formed upstream channel on the daily chart.

The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart are still on the buyers’ side, however, on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts the indicators turned to short positions. It is likely that up to the second round of elections in France, the EuroStoxx50 index is unlikely to be able to update the recent highs near the 3590.0 mark.

The most likely scenario - the EuroStoxx50 index will remain in the range between the levels of 3515.0 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015), 3590.0.

The breakthrough of support level 3440.0 (the lower border of the rising channel and EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will open the way to further decrease of the EuroStoxx50 index with medium-term targets of 3325.0 (January highs), 3240.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakthrough to support level 3200.0 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015) will "close" the upward trend of the EuroStoxx50 index.

If the positive dynamics return again, the EuroStoxx50 index will continue to rise in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 3680.0 (July highs of 2015).

Support levels: 3515.0, 3440.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0, 3200.0

Resistance levels: 3590.0, 3600.0, 3680.0

 

Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 3540.0 Stop-Loss 3595.0. Take-Profit 3515.0, 3470.0, 3440.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0

Buy Stop 3595.0. Stop-Loss 3540.0. Take-Profit 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

 

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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NZD/USD: improvement of trade balance indicators

28/04/2017

 

Current dynamics

According to official data released on Friday, the state of trade balance of New Zealand in March compared with the same period last year improved. In March, the trade surplus amounted to NZ $ 332 million against the negative balance in February (-50 million NZ dollars). The improvement of the indicator was ensured by the growth of exports from New Zealand, primarily dairy and meat products to China. According to Tehsin Islam, a representative of the statistics department of the New Zealand government, "China remains to be the main buyer of our export goods, it accounts for a quarter of total exports of dairy products in value terms. In March, exports to China exceeded $ 1 billion New Zealand dollars for the first time since March 2014 ". Not surprisingly, the New Zealand dollar is so responsive to macro statistics from China.

Also on Friday came strong data on business optimism and business activity in New Zealand (11.0 and 37.7%, respectively) for April. Indicators of company confidence indicate a strong growth in the country's economy, which is growing for the eighth consecutive year.

Nevertheless, the New Zealand currency reacted poorly to the positive data presented in the morning. In the Asia-Pacific region, tensions are growing as the situation on the Korean Peninsula worsens. So, in a recent interview with Reuters, US President Donald Trump warned about the likelihood of a "major conflict" with North Korea. It is likely that, down to a reduction in tensions in the region, New Zealand and Australian dollars will be under pressure.

Also, commodity currencies came under pressure after earlier this week the US decided to introduce import duties on wood from Canada. This news testifies to the strengthening of protectionism in world trade by the US, and this has a negative impact on commodity currencies.

Today we are waiting for data from the USA. At 12:30 (GMT) a report on GDP for the first quarter (preliminary release) is published. A strong report will positively affect the quotations of the US dollar, including in the pair NZD / USD. According to the forecast, the US annual GDP grew by 1.3% in the first quarter (against 2.1% in the previous quarter). Also at this time, published indices of expenditures on personal consumption, which are important indicators of inflation and the price index of GDP for the first quarter.

At 13:45 (GMT) Chicago PMI is published with an assessment of economic activity in the states of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, and at 14:00 - consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in April.

In view of the importance of the data, a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market is expected at the time of publication. The dynamics of the US dollar and the major dollar pairs in this period of time will depend entirely on macro statistical indicators for the United States.

It is also necessary to take into account that today is the last business day of the week and month before the long weekend (on Monday - bank holiday in view of the celebration of Labor Day on May 1). It is possible to fix long positions of the dollar against commodity currencies, which will cause the growth of their quotations against the US dollar, including in the pair NZD / USD.

 

Support and resistance levels

With the opening of today's trading day, the pair NZD / USD continued to decline, despite the "positive dose" from New Zealand. At the moment, the pair NZD / USD is trading at a strong support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014). At this level are also the minimums of December 2016, and the lower border of the descending channel passes on the daily chart.

The strong negative impulse predominates, and the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend short positions.

From this level it is possible, however, as a retreat, and its breakdown with the acceleration of the descending dynamics.

In case of rebound from the level of 0.6860, the pair NZD / USD may return to the depth of the descending channel with the prospect of growth to the levels of 0.6990 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7050 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Between these levels, just the upper limit of the descending channel passes on the daily chart. The beginning of the implementation of this scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the nearest resistance levels 0.6890, 0.6918.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.6860, the global downtrend of the NZD / USD pair, which began in July 2014, will resume. The minima of the wave of this trend are close to the level of 0.6260, which were reached in September 2015, and from which the current upward correction began. The level of 0.6860 is the key level (the Fibonacci level is 23.6%) in this correction.

An alternative scenario for the medium-term growth of the NZD / USD pair will be possible only after the pair is consolidated above the key resistance level 0.7050 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Below this level, the negative dynamics of the pair NZD / USD prevails.

 

Support levels: 0.6860, 0.6800, 0.6680

Resistance levels: 0.6890, 0.6918, 0.6990, 0.7050

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6850. Stop-Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6700, 0.6680

Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop-Loss 0.6850. Take-Profit 0.6920, 0.6990, 0.7050

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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Brent: prices are falling again

02/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

According to the data published on Friday from the American oil service company Baker Hughes, the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased by 9 units to 697 units last week. Thus, almost continuously increasing, the number of active drilling oil rigs in the United States has now reached a level almost two times higher than the minimum marked more than a year ago. The observed sustained recovery of shale oil production in the US substantially negates the effect of OPEC efforts to reduce production and create an artificial deficit in the oil market. At the same time, US oil companies have significant reserve capacity. Despite the increase in drilling activity this year, while only about 70% of existing drilling rigs work. The risks of additional increase in oil production in the US are very significant. According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil production in the US by the end of this year will grow by 680,000 barrels per day compared with the end of 2016.

At the same time, production in non-OPEC countries is increasing. So, on Monday in the Libyan oil company National Oil Corp. Said that production had peaked since 2014, rising to a level of 760,000 barrels per day.

As a result of yesterday, futures for Brent crude on ICE Futures fell in price by 1.02% to 51.52 dollars per barrel.

 Oil production outside OPEC, according to the IEA, this year may increase by 485,000 barrels per day. Reserves of oil in world storage facilities are still significantly higher than average 5-year levels.

All this raises doubts among investors that OPEC will prolong the period of production reduction at the next meeting of the cartel, which will be held on May 25. If the agreement is extended, it will support oil prices in the second half of the year.

If not, the oil market could collapse and again quickly return to the lows of 2016, when a barrel of Brent crude oil was worth about 27.00 dollars.

Today at 20:30 (GMT), the American Petroleum Institute (API) publishes a weekly report with data on oil reserves and four major petroleum products: gasoline, kerosene, distillates and fuel oil in US storage. Another increase in stocks is expected, which will negatively affect oil prices. Previous value: +0.897 million barrels.

 

Support and resistance levels

During the last seven trading sessions, the price for Brent crude oil broke through the most important short- and medium-term support levels of 52.60 (EMA200 on 1-hour, EMA144 on the daily chart), 51.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

At the beginning of today's European session, the spot price for Brent crude oil is close to $ 51.50 per barrel, through which the bottom line of the rising channel and EMA50 pass on the weekly chart. Breakdown of this level of support will significantly increase the growing negative trend.

 Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the weekly, daily, 4-hour charts went to the side of sellers.

In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to decrease from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and fixing below the level of 50.00, the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.

An alternative scenario for growth is associated with a return of the price above the level of 52.60 and further growth in the uplink on the daily chart. The upper boundary of this channel passes near the level of 57.50 (the highs of the year).

So far, negative dynamics prevails.

Support levels: 51.00, 50.70, 50.00

Levels of resistance: 51.90, 52.60, 53.40, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 51.30. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.50

Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 51.30. Take-Profit 52.60, 53.40, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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NZD/USD: wage growth still weak

03/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

After yesterday (22:45 GMT) the Bureau of Statistics of New Zealand published strong data on the state of the labor market in the country, the New Zealand dollar rose in the foreign exchange market. The unemployment rate in New Zealand in the first quarter decreased more than expected (4.9% against the forecast of 5.2% and the same level in the 4th quarter of last year). The NZD / USD pair jumped 0.5% or 33 points at the time of publication of the data, however, then declined just as rapidly and at the beginning of today's European session it was already trading near the opening level of 0.6933.

According to market participants, although unemployment levels are lower than expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not rush to raise interest rates. The unemployment rate of 4.9% corresponds to the forecast of the central bank published earlier this year. At the same time, the employment report released today points to a weak wage growth.

Also, the RBNZ is concerned about the recent decision by the US to introduce import duties on wood from Canada. This news is evidence of increased protectionism in world trade by the US, and this has a negative impact on commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.

It is likely that at the meeting scheduled for the next week (May 10), RBNZ will not change its forecast of the dynamics of interest rates. It is expected that the RBNZ will start raising rates not earlier than 2019.

At the same time, the attention of traders will be riveted to today's Fed decision on the interest rate, which will be published at 18:00 (GMT). The probability that the Fed will raise the rate today is about 5%, according to the CME Group. Investors will follow the accompanying comments. The US central bank will report its assessment of the economic situation and may signal the prospects for interest rates for the coming months. The press conference of the chairman of the FRS, Janet Yellen will not. She will speak later on Friday.

The Fed statement may contain information on the probability of an increase in the key rate at the next meeting, which will be held on June 13-14. The probability of the June increase is estimated at 71%, and market participants expect two more interest rate hikes this year. Also, the Fed may signal that it will start cutting its portfolio of bonds and other assets already in September, which now amounts to about $ 4.5 trillion. All this can dramatically strengthen the position of the US dollar, if, of course, the Fed today will say what it expects market participants.

 

Support and resistance levels

With the opening of today's trading day, the pair NZD / USD has risen sharply on positive data from the New Zealand labor market. During the European session, the NZD / USD pair resumed its decline. At the moment, the pair NZD / USD is trading at the short-term support level of 0.6930 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), however, OsMA and Stochastic indicators moved to the sellers' line on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. The pair NZD / USD was unable to develop an upward movement above the level of 0.6970.

There is probably a second test of support level 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014). At this level are also the minimums of December 2016, and the lower border of the descending channel passes on the daily chart.

The negative impulse predominates. In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.6860, the global downtrend of the NZD / USD pair, which began in July 2014, will resume. The minima of the wave of this trend are close to the level of 0.6260, which were reached in September 2015, and from which the current upward correction began. The level of 0.6860 is the key level (the Fibonacci level is 23.6%) in this correction.

In case of rebound from the level of 0.6860, the pair NZD / USD may return to the depth of the descending channel with the prospect of growth to the levels of 0.6980 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7050 (EMA200 on the daily chart, the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart).

The scenario for the medium-term growth of the NZD / USD pair will be possible only after the pair is consolidated above the key resistance level of 0.7050. Below this level, the negative dynamics of the pair NZD / USD prevails.

Support levels: 0.6918, 0.6890, 0.6860, 0.6800, 0.6680

Resistance levels: 0.6980, 0.7050

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6970. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6890, 0.6860, 0.6800, 0.6680

Buy Stop 0.6970. Stop-Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.7050

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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EUR/USD: The Fed kept interest rates at the same level

04/05/2017

Current dynamics

As it became known, during the two-day meeting, the Fed kept interest rates at the same level, in the range of 0.75% -1.00%. The decision was taken unanimously, by 9 votes out of 9.

The leaders noted the observed slowdown in US economic growth since the beginning of the year, but characterized it as having a "temporary nature." The decision of the Fed was expected. Now, market participants with a probability of 75% expect a rate increase at the June meeting of the Fed (June 13-14).

The dollar responded with growth to the decision of the Fed and continued to increase after the publication of the decision. Despite the fact that yesterday the EUR / USD fell by 4%, losing almost 100 points, today the EUR / USD pair has fully recovered at the beginning of the European session.

Portion of positive from the Eurozone in the form of macroeconomic statistics, received at the beginning of the European session, allowed the euro to strengthen its position in the foreign exchange market.

Retail sales in the Eurozone in March, according to updated data, increased by 0.3% (+ 2.3% in annual terms). Data on retail sales for February were also revised upwards: to + 0.5% (+ 1.7% in annual terms). The composite index of purchasing managers (PMI) of the Eurozone for April was revised upwards to 56.8 from 56.7. In March, the index was 56.4, and in April reached a 6-year high.

During yesterday's European trading session (at 09:00 GMT), data on the Eurozone's GDP (preliminary value) for the first quarter were published. The GDP growth was + 0.5% (+ 1.7% in annual terms), which coincided with the forecast.

It is unlikely that the data presented will have an impact on the leadership of the ECB, which considers the growth of the Eurozone economy still weak enough to begin curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone. Unemployment in the Eurozone remains at 9.5%, while inflation is still below the ECB's target level (just under 2.0%).

As you know, at the end of last month, the ECB kept interest rates at the same level (the ECB's main interest rate is 0%, the deposit rate for commercial banks is negative and is -0.4%). As the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, stated at the next press conference, "the incoming data strengthen our confidence that the observed economic growth will continue to strengthen and expand," however, "the risks ... are still shifted downwards, and they are connected, first of all , with global factors ".

Today (at 16:30 GMT) ECB President Mario Draghi will start the speech. Volatility in EUR trades could rise sharply in the course of his speech. Mario Draghi is able to unfold the markets, especially if his speech touches on the subject of the monetary policy of the ECB.

 

Support and resistance levels

After the first round of the presidential elections in France, the pair EUR / USD continues to remain in the range, mainly between the levels of 1.0850, 1.0950. The EUR/USD is also above the short-term support level 1.0875 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

Positive short-term dynamics of the EUR / USD pair prevails above this level, as evidenced by the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts.

Also above the support level 1.0800 (EMA200 on the daily chart), medium-term positive dynamics is also preserved. The EUR/USD is at the top of the rising channel on the daily chart, its upper limit runs between the levels of 1.0950, 1.1000.

The recent positive macroeconomic data from the Eurozone stimulate the growth of the number of euro buyers. If on Sunday Macron wins the final victory in the second round of the presidential elections in France, then the euro's positions will significantly strengthen in the currency market, including the EUR / USD pair.

In case of breakdown of the levels of 1.0950, 1.1000, the pair EUR / USD may go to resistance levels 1.1280 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900), 1.1340 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

An alternative scenario for a reduction in the medium term will become relevant if the EUR / USD pair returns to the support level of 1.0800. The targets for the decline will then be levels 1.0770 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.0630 (bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 1.0580 (April lows), 1.0530, 1.0500.

Development of such a scenario will also contribute to the systematic implementation of the decisions of the Fed on a gradual increase in the interest rate in the US and a reduction in the balance of the Fed.

Support levels: 1.0875, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0770, 1.0700, 1.0630, 1.0580, 1.0530, 1.0500

Levels of resistance: 1.0950, 1.1000, 1.1200, 1.1280, 1.1340

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.0870. Stop-Loss 1.0910. Goals 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0770, 1.0700, 1.0630, 1.0580, 1.0500

Buy Stop 1.0960. Stop-Loss. Goals 1.1000, 1.1200, 1.1280, 1.1340

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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Brent: the number of active drilling rigs in the United States has again risen

08/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

The general weakening of the US dollar, observed on Friday, helped the oil prices to adjust at the end of last week. The price of Brent oil after reaching a new local minimum during the Asian session of Friday near the level of 46.70 dollars per barrel could grow by the end of the American trading session to the level of 49.69. The price increase on Friday continued even after the data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes were published. The number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week (by 6 units to 703 units).

The victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential election helped to ease concerns about the prospects of the European economy. The investors' mood also improved the information that Saudi Arabia will support the extension of OPEC arrangements with the participation of Russia and other major oil-producing countries on the reduction of production.

Nevertheless, some investors still doubt that a reduction in production will lead to a rapid and significant reduction in world reserves.

The growth in the production of shale oil in the US significantly alleviates OPEC's efforts to create an artificial deficit and stabilize prices in the oil market. Moreover, the US is increasing its oil exports to Asia. Approximately 40% of US oil exports were sent to Asia in February. At the same time, US oil companies have significant reserve capacity.

Last month, the EIA raised its forecast for oil production this year and next year to 9.2 million barrels per day and 9.9 million barrels per day, respectively. Against the backdrop of the growth of active drilling rigs the last three months production in the US remains above 9 million barrels per day.

On Tuesday, a monthly report is expected from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) with a short-term forecast on the dynamics of oil production in the US. It is expected that EIA will again raise the forecast for oil production in the US, which could significantly worsen the mood of investors and increase the pressure on prices.

But the main current risks are connected, first of all, with the extension of OPEC agreements on oil production reduction. If the agreement on limiting production is not extended (the OPEC meeting will be held on May 25), the oil market may again rapidly return to the lows of 2016, when the barrel of Brent crude oil was just above $ 27.00.

 

Support and resistance levels

Since the middle of last month, the price for Brent crude oil has fallen sharply and has lost almost 15% to the current moment. Negative dynamics prevails. The price of Brent crude oil broke through the most important mid-term support levels of 52.45 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 51.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the uplink on the weekly chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% From June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00) and decreases in the descending channel on the 4-hour chart.

In case of repeated testing of the support level of 48.35 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart), the price reduction may resume.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the monthly, weekly, daily charts went to the side of sellers.

In the case of consolidation below 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.

An alternative scenario for growth is associated with a price return above the level of 52.45. So far, there has been a strong negative dynamics.

Support levels: 48.35, 48.00, 47.10, 46.20

Levels of resistance: 50.00, 50.70, 51.70, 52.45

 

Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 48.90. Stop-Loss Section 50.10. Take-Profit 48.35, 48.00, 47.10, 46.20

Buy Stop 50.10. Stop-Loss 48.90. Take-Profit 50.70, 51.70, 52.45, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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USD/JPY: US government bond yield growth supports dollar

10/05/2017

Overview and dynamics

As the financial and geopolitical tensions in the world decrease (the elections in France, the election of a new president in South Korea, which prioritizes the establishment of relations with the northern neighbor), the monetary policy of the Fed is again on the forefront, aimed at its gradual tightening.

Increase in the propensity of investors to risk is caused by the sale of assets-shelters, such as gold, yen, as well as US government bonds. On Tuesday, the yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to the highest level in more than a month. The index of the dollar WSJ (reflecting the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies) increased by 0.3%, to 90.52.

Investors again focus their attention on the high probability of an interest rate increase in the US already in June. The probability of such an increase, according to the CME Group, is approximately 88%.

As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan stated yesterday, the basic scenario of the Fed envisages three higher interest rates this year. According to Kaplan, raising rates should continue "gradually and patiently." The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, also said yesterday that the Fed should not lag behind the schedule for raising interest rates.

With an increase in interest rates, the US dollar becomes more attractive to investors seeking profitability. Now, because of the rapid increase in rates and the possible reduction in the Fed's balance among investors, there is concern that this year there may be a shortage of the US currency.

Concern over Trump's policy and the presidential elections in France is gradually dying out, and strong US macroeconomic data is helping the US dollar recover in the foreign exchange market.

After positive data from the US labor market published on Friday, it is worth paying attention to important data on retail sales and inflation in the US, which are published this Friday at 12:30 (GMT). These data will help the Fed better understand the state of the country's economy. A moderate increase in inflation is expected in April, which will positively affect the US dollar.

Against the backdrop of the strengthening of the "hawkish" position of the Fed on the monetary policy in the US, other major world central banks demonstrate a tendency to pursue a soft monetary policy. In late April, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged. Despite the fact that, according to the bank, the outlook for the economy has improved, inflation still lags behind the forecasts. The bank lowered the inflation forecast for this fiscal year to 1.4% against 1.5% earlier. The forecast for the next financial year remained unchanged at 1.7%.

The Board of the Bank of Japan voted for the preservation of the target level of 10-year government bonds at a zero mark, for maintaining the key rate at the level of -0.1%, and confirmed that the bank will continue to purchase government bonds worth 80 trillion yen per year. The Bank of Japan filed a clear signal that the possibility of raising rates was not yet being considered and that he would continue to pursue an extra soft monetary policy.

Most economists believe that the Bank of Japan will not take any action during the entire fiscal year 2017. The manager of the Bank of Japan Kuroda said today that the weak yen is a plus for capital spending, employment in Japan.

Thus, there is a clear divergence in the direction of the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan and the Fed, which will be the main driver of the pair USD / JPY for the near future.

 

Technical analysis

At the beginning of the month, the pair USD / JPY pushed back from the support level of 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart), and having broken through an important resistance level of 113.00 (Fibonacci level of 50% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90, as well as the upper limit of the downward channel on Day chart), develops an upward trend.

On the weekly chart, a new ascending channel was formed, with the upper boundary passing near the level of 125.65 (highs of June 2015). If the growth continues, the level of 125.65 will be a long-term target for the pair USD / JPY. Medium-term goals within this upward channel are 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 118.60 (December and January highs), 121.30 (February and November highs).

The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level 113.00 and the return of the pair USD / JPY in the downward channel on the daily chart. The objectives of the decline are levels 111.70 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 110.10 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), the negative dynamics of the pair USD / JPY will increase. The closest targets in this case will be the levels of 108.25 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April lows), 106.50 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%), the breakdown of which will finally return the pair USD / JPY in a downtrend.

So far, the positive dynamics of the pair USD / JPY is dominating. Preferred are the long positions.

Support levels: 113.00, 112.60, 111.70, 111.15, 110.90, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50

Resistance levels: 114.00, 115.00, 116.00

 

Trading recommendations

Buy Stop 114.35. Stop Loss 113.60. Take-Profit 115.00, 116.00, 117.00, 118.60

Sell Stop 113.60. Stop Loss 114.35. Take-Profit 113.00, 112.60, 111.70, 111.15, 110.90, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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USD/CAD: amid rising oil prices

11/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

According to data provided yesterday by the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the US fell by 5.247 million barrels in the week of April 29-May 5. Oil reserves in the US declined for the fifth week in a row, and this is the largest weekly decline this year. The forecast assumed a drop in inventories of 1.786 million barrels. The prices for oil in response to this message reacted with a sharp increase.

Commodity currencies, and above all, the Canadian dollar, have been supported by rising oil prices. The pair USD / CAD lost 40 points at the time of publication of this data, and the end of yesterday's trading day was already near the mark of 1.3650, which is almost 0.5% lower than the level of yesterday's trading day opening. At the beginning of today's trading day, the pair USD / CAD again rose, largely recouping yesterday's decline.

According to analysts of the oil market, the surplus of oil reserves in the world is still high. As expected, OPEC should extend or agree on a stronger production cut on May 25. If such an agreement is reached, then oil prices, and together with them, commodity currencies (including the Canadian dollar) will receive strong support. The expected OPEC agreement on the extension of agreements to reduce oil production is a strong "bearish" factor for the pair USD / CAD. The expected increase in the June Fed meeting (June 13-14) of the interest rate in the US is a strong “bullish” factor for the pair USD / CAD. As stated yesterday by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, "three increases in rates are justified during the current year, provided that the economy will grow in line with the forecasts".

Thus, the pair USD / CAD is on a kind of "balance of weights", and much will depend both on the decisions of the Fed and OPEC, as well as on accompanying statements. To determine the direction of further movement, the pair needs fundamental drivers.

From the news for today we are waiting for data from the USA and Canada. At 12:30 (GMT) will be presented:

• US data - Producer Price Index (PPI), which estimates the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of manufacturing. A high result strengthens the US dollar, low - weakens. Forecast: in April the index rose to 0.2% (against -0.1% in March); A weekly report from the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar. The forecast is expected to increase to 245,000 versus 238,000 for the previous period, which should negatively affect the dollar;

• data for Canada - the price index for new housing for March. The high value of the indicator is a positive factor for CAD, and a low value is negative. Forecast: prices in March rose by 0.2%. At 14:30 (GMT) the quarterly report from the Bank of Canada is published, containing information on the state of the Canadian economy and the bank's policy.

Thus, during the publication of data (12:30 and 14:30 GMT), volatility in the USD / CAD pair is expected to grow.

 

Support and resistance levels

Since the beginning of the month, the pair USD / CAD is trading, basically, in the range between the levels 1.3750, 1.3650. Through the 1.3680 mark, at which the pair USD / CAD is trading in the middle of today's European session, the Fibonacci level is 23.6% (the downward correction for the pair's growth since early July 2014 and the 1.0650 mark) and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts were deployed to short positions.

In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 1.3680, the downside target will be support levels 1.3650, 1.3590 (November highs, December highs).

Nevertheless, there are all the prerequisites of a fundamental nature for the further growth of the US dollar against commodity currencies, including against the Canadian dollar.

The pair USD / CAD remains significantly above the key support level 1.3300 (EMA200 on the daily chart) in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which is near the 1.3900 level.

Much in the dynamics of the pair USD / CAD in the medium term will depend, first of all, on the dynamics of the US dollar and oil prices.

Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3650, 1.3590, 1.3510, 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3900, 1.3940, 1.4000

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3715. Stop-Loss 1.3670. Take-Profit 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3850, 1.3900, 1.3940

Sell ​​Stop 1.3670. Stop-Loss 1.3715. Take-Profit 1.3590, 1.3510, 1.3300

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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Brent: 2 key support levels 51.70, 50.70

12/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

After on Wednesday the US Energy Ministry presented data on commercial oil and petroleum products in the US for the previous week, oil prices rose sharply. Reserves in the US, contrary to forecasts, fell by 5.247 million barrels. This was the largest weekly decline this year. And the oil reserves in the US are declining for the fifth consecutive week.

Yesterday, the price of Brent oil on the positive received an attempt to break through the resistance level at 50.70 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark). However, the attempt failed, and Brent crude oil traded today in a narrow range near the mark of 50.70 dollars per barrel.

The optimism of the participants in the oil market also increased after the OPEC report, which showed that members of the cartel adhere to the established quotas. As expected, OPEC should extend or agree on a stronger production cut on May 25. If such an agreement is reached, oil prices will receive strong support. It seems that oil futures will finish the week with a rise of more than 3%, if the overall positive picture again does not spoil the report from the American oil service company Baker Hughes, which will be published today closer to the end of the US trading session (18:00 GMT). The number of active oil drilling rigs in the US earlier rose again (by 6 units to 703 units). The next growth will negatively affect oil prices.

According to analysts of the oil market, the surplus of oil reserves in the world is still high. OPEC raised its forecast for growth in oil production outside the cartel in 2017 to 950,000 barrels per day. Accelerating production in the US, Brazil, Canada, as well as Nigeria and Libya, which are part of OPEC, largely alleviates OPEC's efforts to create an artificial deficit in the oil market and stabilize oil prices.

At the same time, OPEC understands that oil producers in the above countries take the market share from the cartel, which is narrowing due to a decrease in oil production, which occurs within the framework of the OPEC agreement.

If the agreement on limiting production is not extended (the OPEC meeting will be held on May 25), the oil market may again rapidly return to the lows of 2016, when the barrel of Brent crude oil was just above $ 27.00.

From the news for today, also waiting for data on inflation in the US. At 12:30 (GMT) will be published data on retail sales and consumer price indices for April, which are one of the main inflation indicators in the US. A high result will strengthen the US dollar, and vice versa, a low result will weaken the USD. The forecast: + 0.6% (against -0.2% in March) and + 0.3% (against -0.3% in March), respectively. Evidence of accelerating inflation will increase the likelihood of an increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve System.

In this case, the attractiveness of the dollar for investors will grow, while prices for oil and other commodities, denominated in US dollars, will fall.

 

Support and resistance levels

Since the middle of last month, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen sharply and has lost almost 12% to the current moment. The negative dynamics prevails while the price is below the levels 51.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark).

On the daily chart, a downward channel formed, the lower boundary of which passes near the support level of 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level).

In the event of a breakout of the level of 50.70, the price that is currently at this level will rush down to levels 48.35, 47.10, 46.20. In the case of consolidation below 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.

An alternative scenario for growth is associated with a return of the price above the level of 52.45 (EMA144 on the daily chart). So far, negative dynamics prevails.

Support levels: 50.70, 48.35, 47.00, 46.20

Resistance levels: 51.70, 52.45

 

Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 50.50. Stop-Loss 51.25. Take-Profit 50.00, 48.35, 48.00, 47.10, 46.20

Buy Stop 51.25. Stop-Loss 50.50. Take-Profit 51.70, 52.45, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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FTSE100: Positive dynamics of the index persists

15/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

After in April British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections the British stock market collapsed. The index of the London stock exchange FTSE100 has lost almost 2.9%. It was followed by all European major stock indexes. Early general elections in the UK would allow Prime Minister Theresa May to consolidate the dominant position of the Conservative Party in parliament on the eve of the June elections in order to negotiate with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit.

Despite the collapse in April, the FTSE100 index was able not only to recover completely, but to exceed the annual absolute maximum recorded in March near the 7447.0 mark.

At the beginning of today's European session, the FTSE100 index is declining; however, it is still in positive territory, trading near the 7444.0 mark with a rise after more than 1200 points (+ 19%) in the referendum on Brexit at the end of June.

The focus of traders will be today the speech of British Prime Minister Theresa May, which will begin at 19:00 (GMT). It is necessary to take into account the possibility of a sharp increase in volatility during the speech of Theresa May.

It is also worthwhile to be careful when opening trading positions tomorrow, when at 08:30 (GMT) inflation data are published in the UK for April. As expected, annual inflation accelerated to 2.6% from 2.3% in the previous month. The sharp increase in inflation in the country, gives grounds to assume that the Bank of England can again return to consideration of the question of raising the interest rate in the UK. And this is a negative factor for the British stock market.

Nevertheless, weak wage growth rates in the UK, which are lagging behind the rate of inflation in the country, can cause the British to cut their spending, which in turn can cause a slowdown in the national economy.

For this reason, the Bank of England will refrain from tightening monetary policy in the country, which is a positive factor for the British stock market. If the inflation data published in the UK tomorrow is below the forecast (+ 0.4% in April and + 2.6% in annual terms), the FTSE100 index will respond with growth.

 

Support and resistance levels

By mid-March, the FTSE100 index rose to its maximum near the 7447.0 level. Over the past two months, the FTSE100 index has fallen, adjusting to the support level of 7090.0. Nevertheless, recovering from a sharp fall after the statement of Theresa May about early parliamentary elections, the FTSE100 index is again rising in the uplink on the weekly chart.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts recommend long positions.

While the FTSE100 index is above the short-term support level of 7295.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), positive dynamics remain.

In the event of a breakdown of this level, there may be risks of reducing the FTSE100 index to support levels of 7090.0 (February lows, October highs), 7050.0 (EMA200 and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart).

Breakdown of the level of 7050.0 and further decline will mean a reversal and the end of the upward trend of the FTSE100 index.

Nevertheless, the fundamental background creates the prerequisites for further growth of the index.

While the FTSE100 index is above 7295.0, long positions are more preferable.

The Bank of England maintains an extra soft monetary policy, which is a strong positive factor for the British stock market.

Support levels: 7386.0, 7295.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0

Resistance levels: 7450.0, 7500.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 7365.0. Stop-Loss 7460.0. Take-Profit 7350.0, 7295.0, 7200.0, 7100.0, 7050.0

Buy Stop 7460.0. Stop-Loss 7365.0. Take-Profit 7500.0, 7520.0, 7550.0

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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S&P500: US indices rise against the backdrop of rising commodity prices

16/05/2017

Current dynamics

The recovery of prices for oil and other commodities supports US stock indices. The increase in prices for iron ore and base metals supported the shares of companies in the mining sector. In the oil market, positive dynamics has also been prevailing over the last week. After last Wednesday the Ministry of Energy of the United States presented data that showed a significant drop in oil and petroleum products in the United States, oil prices have appreciated by 8.5% by today. At the same time, investors do not lose hope for an extension of the agreement on the reduction of oil production in the framework of OPEC. So, recently the Saudi oil Minister Khaled Al-Falikh and the Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak expressed support for the extension of the agreement on the reduction of production for another 9 months. The next OPEC meeting will be held on May 25.

As a result, against the background of positive expectations on the oil market, WTI futures for NYMEX closed on Monday with an increase of $ 1.01 (or 2.1%) at $ 48.85 per barrel. The sub-index of the oil and gas sector in the S&P500 grew by 0.6%, which gave a positive momentum to the entire S&P500 index. As a result of yesterday's trading day, the S&P500 grew by 0.5%, Nasdaq Composite - by 0.5%, Dow Jones Industrial Average - by 0.4%.

From the US continue to receive positive macroeconomic data. Despite some deviation from the forecasted values ​​in the smaller direction, in general, the indicators of inflation and the labor market of the USA point to the growth of the economy in the country. As long as the economy is growing, investors will prefer stocks and other asset-safe havens and other risky instruments.

Nevertheless, investors still believe that the Fed will raise interest rates in June. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate hike next month is estimated at 74% (last week the probability was at 83%). The likelihood of an early increase in the interest rate is holding back from more active purchases on the US stock market, which, nevertheless, is dominated by a positive trend.

From the news for today we are waiting for the data from the USA. At 12:30 (GMT), a report on the dynamics of new permits for the construction of houses in the US for April, which is an important indicator of the housing market, will be presented. The higher the value, the more positive the effect is on the stock indices. Forecast: 1.27 million new permits (against 1.26 million permits last month). If the data prove to be better than the forecast, then the US indices will grow. At 13:15 (GMT) the report of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve on the volume of industrial production and use of production capacities for April is published. A high result may indicate the existence of inflationary expectations and, consequently, a rapid rate increase, so a high figure strengthens the US dollar.

But at the same time, strong macro data contribute to the growth of investor confidence in the stability and growth of the US economy. And this is a positive fundamental factor for the US stock market. In general, the positive background for stock indices remains.

 

Support and resistance levels

Since the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index has slightly decreased. Nevertheless, the positive dynamics of the S & P500 index remains. Since February 2016, the S & P500 index has been steadily growing and is in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.

At the moment, the S & P500 again tests the resistance level of 2400.0, reached in early March, for breakdown.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts went to the side of buyers. In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be level 2412.0 (the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

The reverse scenario will be related to the breakdown of the short-term support level 2392.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and the decrease with the nearest targets near the levels 2360.0 (the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 2326.0 (April lows). The breakdown of support levels of 2275.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2265.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.

Support levels: 2392.0, 2375.0, 2360.0, 2326.0, 2275.0, 2265.0

Resistance levels: 2400.0, 2412.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 2390.0. Stop-Loss 2405.0. Objectives 2375.0, 2360.0, 2326.0, 2275.0, 2265.0

Buy Stop 2405.0. Stop-Loss 2390.0. Objectives 2412.0, 2420.0

 

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 *) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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Brent: Middle of the range and key level 51.70

17/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

Interrupted by a series of non-stop 4-day growth, the price for Brent crude oil finished yesterday's trading day with a decrease of 1% or $ 0.6 per barrel. Published at the end of yesterday's trading day, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) was the final chord of yesterday's decline in the price of oil. According to the API, oil reserves in the US increased by 882,000 barrels in the week of May 6-12. The presented data again revived fears of investors that the growth of oil production in the US is negating the efforts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to restore the balance in the market.

Oil prices in different directions are pulling information on the growth of oil reserves and production outside the cartel and the expectation that OPEC and countries outside the cartel are supporting the extension of the deal to cut production. On Monday, it was reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia expressed a propensity to extend the agreement to reduce production for another 9 months. The OPEC meeting on this issue will be held next week (May 25).

The skepticism about the efficiency of the OPEC deal returned to the oil market after the International Energy Agency (IEA) published data on Tuesday that according to which in the 1st quarter commercial oil reserves in developed countries increased by 24.1 million barrels. IEA data also indicate the growth of stocks in oil storage facilities and in April.

According to analysts of the oil market, OPEC will be able to achieve the goal, and world oil reserves in the storage facilities will drop to an average of 5-year level provided that in the next year the supply of oil is reduced by 1 million barrels per day. Some of the economists are of the opinion that the OPEC reduction deal should be extended for 2018 as well.

The increase in the number of drilling rigs and the increase in production in the United States go faster and larger than expected, offsetting the efforts of OPEC. This could lead to the fact that production in the US will continue to grow, and support from OPEC in 2018 will end. In this case, the risks of a sharp drop in oil prices rise significantly against the backdrop of a growing surplus of oil supply.

Today at 14:30 (GMT) will be a report from the US Department of Energy on the change in oil and petroleum products in the US over the past week. It is expected that oil and petroleum products in the US fell by another 2.283 million barrels (after a recent weekly reduction of 5.247 million barrels). When confirming the forecast, the price of oil should rise.

Closer to the end of the US trading session (18:00 GMT) on Friday a report will be published from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the US. It is expected that the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States has again increased (in the previous week their number was 712 units). The next growth will negatively affect oil prices.

 

Support and resistance levels

After a sharp decline at the beginning of the month to 47.00, the price of Brent crude oil was able to significantly adjust to today's expectations on the expectation that OPEC will be able to agree on an extension of the agreement to reduce oil production.

Today, Brent crude trades near the key resistance level at 51.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart). This level is also a kind of middle line of the range formed between the levels 52.35 (EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart) and 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark).

The price for Brent crude oil remains within the descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which is near the support level of 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level).

If the support level breaks through 50.70, the price will go down to levels 48.35, 47.10, 46.20. In the case of consolidation below 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.

An alternative scenario for growth is associated with a return of the price above the level of 52.35. Long-term goals in the case of this scenario are near 55.60 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 56.70 (April highs), 57.50, 58.40 (highs of the year).

Support levels: 50.70, 48.35, 47.00, 46.20

Resistance levels: 51.70, 52.35

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 51.25. Stop-Loss 51.85. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.00, 48.35, 48.00, 47.10, 46.20

Buy Stop 51.85. Stop-Loss 51.25. Take-Profit 52.35, 54.00, 55.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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EUR/USD: short-term downward correction likely

18/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

Aggravated in the US political uncertainty caused sales in global stock markets, especially American ones. Investors once again fear that the Trump administration will face difficulties in carrying out tax reform and budget incentives.

The dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The ICE dollar index, estimating its rate to the basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.4% to 97,685, being near the minimum mark since November 4. Yesterday was also associated with an increase in demand for asylum assets, such as the yen, gold, US government bonds. So, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, according to Tradeweb, fell yesterday to 2.247% from 2.329%.

We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast: 240 000 (against 236 000 the previous week), which should negatively affect the dollar.

Also at the same time published an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in May. The result is higher than expected (19.5 against 22.0 in April) will strengthen the US dollar.

 

Support and resistance levels

Despite today's decline, the positive dynamics of the pair EUR / USD persists. On a strong positive momentum, the EUR / USD pair broke the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart near 1.1100. In case of resumption of growth and renewal of the local and annual maximum near the 1.1170 level, the targets will be levels 1.1280 (Fibonacci level 23.8% corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900), 1.1340 (EMA144 on a weekly basis Chart).

In case the EUR / USD pair returns to the zone below the support level 1.1100 (the upper line of the rising channel on the daily chart), the fall in the EUR / USD pair may accelerate into the channel. Strong levels of support are also levels 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950. Breakdown of support levels 1.0820 (EMA200), 1.0780 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will cancel the uptrend.

Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0900, 1.0875, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0780

Resistance levels: 1.1156, 1.1170, 1.1200, 1.1280, 1.1340

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.1115. Stop-Loss 1.1175. Objectives 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0900, 1.0875, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0780

Buy Stop 1.1175. Stop-Loss 1.1115. Objectives 1.1200, 1.1280. 1.1340

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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DJIA: American stock market rebounds

19/05/2017

Current dynamics

World and, above all, American stock markets are recovering after a serious fall two days ago. The fall of the dollar and US stock indices on Wednesday was caused by reports in the media that Trump allegedly asked former FBI director James Komi, who was dismissed from his post a few days earlier, to stop the investigation against Michael Flynn, who previously held the position of adviser President for national security. The news came after reports that Trump handed classified information to Russian authorities, which could harm the US national security. Against this background, talk of possible impeachment of Trump increased.

Nevertheless, since yesterday, there has been a recovery of the dollar and US indices. Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, hastened to reassure investors.

Stephen Mnuchin said that "President Trump is determined to carry out the tax reform as quickly as possible". Loretta Mester, who is also a member of the FOMC of the Fed, gave a positive assessment to the US economy and said that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates to "avoid increasing risks to macroeconomic stability that may arise if the economy overheats".

The dollar and US indices received yesterday also support from published data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US, which declined for the third consecutive week, indicating a steady increase in the number of jobs. The index of business activity for May, published by the Fed-Philadelphia, significantly exceeded the expectations of economists, which also gave confidence to investors (38.8 against the forecast of 19.5 and 22.0 in April).

Today, the economic calendar for the United States is empty; however, it is worth paying attention to the speech of FOMC member and head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard (starts at 13:15 GMT). It is likely that Bullard, also following Mester, will point to a high probability of an early interest rate increase in the United States. The next meeting of the Federal Reserve on this issue will be held on June 13-14, and many investors are already laying a price hike on prices in this meeting.

According to the CME Group, the probability of an increase in rates next month is again estimated at 74%. On the one hand, the probability of an early increase in the interest rate is holding back from more active purchases on the American stock market, raising the rate makes the dollar more expensive. On the other hand, as the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, pointed out more often, the rate increase speaks about the strength of the American economy, and this is a positive factor for the dollar and the US stock market, which, nevertheless, is dominated by positive dynamics.

 

Support and resistance levels

As a result of the recent fall, the DJIA index has lost all the achievements of recent weeks, falling below the opening level of the previous month near the mark 20650.0. The DJIA index broke through the support level of 20620.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), falling to the level of 20500.0.

With the opening of today's trading day and the beginning of the European session, the DJIA index continues to recover, once again returning to the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes above the level of 21170.0 (absolute and annual highs).

To confirm the upward dynamics, the DJIA index needs to gain a foothold above the level 20825.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts).

The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts turned to long positions.

Positive dynamics of the index can fully recover already above the level of 20820.0. Long positions can be opened already in the zone above the resistance level 20750.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).

 In an alternative scenario, the index should drop below the local and May low near the 20500.0 mark

If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may continue to support levels of 20360.0 (April lows), 19990.0 (December highs), 19850.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery In February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark of 21170.0).

The change in the bullish trend for the bearish will occur only after the DJIA index falls below the level of 19850.0. So far, the bullish trend prevails.

Support levels: 20620.0. 20500.0, 20360.0, 20110.0, 19990.0, 19850.0

Resistance levels: 20750.0, 20820.0, 20885.0, 20980.0, 21170.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 20610.0. Take-Profit 20750.0, 20820.0, 20885.0, 20980.0, 21170.0

Sell ​​Stop 20610.0. Stop-Loss 20760.0. Take-Profit 20500.0, 20360.0, 20110.0, 19990.0, 19850.0

 

 

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190517-_DJIA-h4.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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Brent: Investors' optimism is growing

22/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

The previous week, oil prices continued to rise. Optimism of investors was caused by media reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia are in favor of a 9-month extension of the agreement. Other OPEC member countries support the extension of the deal to reduce production for 9 months, said Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khaled Al-Falih. According to Al-Falih, the extension of the deal until March 2018 will allow OPEC to achieve its goal and reduce world reserves to an average of 5-year level, and restore the balance in the oil market. As is known, at the end of last year, 13 OPEC countries and 11 countries outside the cartel agreed on a total reduction of oil production by almost 1.8 million barrels a day until June.

However, this was not enough to restore the balance of supply and demand in the oil market. Other major oil-producing countries, such as the United States and Canada, have been actively increasing production, while the countries participating in the agreement have reduced production.

Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published data according to which in the 1st quarter commercial oil reserves in developed countries increased by 24.1 million barrels. IEA data also indicate the growth of stocks in oil storage facilities and in April.

The US continues to increase oil production, which largely neutralizes the efforts of OPEC. So, according to the data provided by American oil service company Baker Hughes on Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States again rose to 720 units in the previous week.

Some economists doubt that the OPEC deal will have the desired effect on the supply surplus. The increase in the number of drilling rigs and the increase in production in the United States go faster and larger than expected. This could lead to the fact that production in the US will continue to grow, and support from OPEC in 2018 will end. In this case, the risks of a sharp drop in oil prices rise significantly against the backdrop of a growing surplus of oil supply.

Nevertheless, the oil market is on the rise. The next OPEC meeting will be held on May 25 in Vienna, and much in the future dynamics of oil prices will depend on the decisions taken at this meeting. If it is indeed decided to extend the agreement for another 9 months, and also expressed the intention to continue to actively influence the balance of the oil market in the direction of reducing the level of oil supply, then oil prices will be a powerful incentive for further growth.

 

Support and resistance levels

The previous week the price for Brent crude oil has significantly strengthened. The growth was almost 6%. The price has added 3 dollars per barrel, having risen to the level of 53.86 dollars.

Today's trading day began for oil with a small gap in price. However, in the future the momentum faded and the price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to the level of 54.00 (today's opening price).

Given that today the dollar is strengthening in the foreign exchange market, partially restoring its positions after a strong fall last week, it is also likely to reduce oil prices. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts went to the side of sellers, signaling an overdue downward correction.

The price is on the upper border of the descending channel on the daily chart (level 54.00).

Withdrawal from this level will create prerequisites for further price reduction inside the channel to support levels of 52.35 (EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart), 52.05, 51.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart). A stronger correction is possible to support level 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to decrease from 65.30 from June 2015 to absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark).

If the support level breaks through 50.70, the price will go down to levels 48.35, 47.10, 46.20. In case of consolidation below level 46.20 (the Fibonacci level of 50% and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.

The scenario for price growth is connected with the breakdown of the level of 54.00 and further strengthening to the levels of 55.60 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 56.70 (April highs), 57.50, 58.40 (highs of the year).

On the daily and weekly charts, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend long positions, and the price on the weekly chart is in the middle of the rising channel, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 62.00.

Support levels: 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70, 48.35, 47.00, 46.20

Resistance levels: 54.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.50

 

Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 53.80. Stop-Loss 54.30. Take-Profit 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70

Buy Stop 54.30. Stop-Loss 53.80. Take-Profit 55.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

 

220517-_Brent-d.png

 

220517-_Brent-w.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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NZD/USD: commodity prices rose

23/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

Against the background of the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in commodity prices, the NZD / USD pair has significantly increased over the past 1.5 weeks. Despite the growth of expectations of an increase in the interest rate in the US, the US dollar demonstrates a large-scale decline in the foreign exchange market. According to the CME Group, investors are expecting an increase in the Fed's key rate at a meeting scheduled for June 13-14 at 78.5% against 59% in mid-April. The probability of an increase in the rate in July is 80.0%, in September 86%. Nevertheless, the US dollar is losing all acquisitions since November 8, when the new US president was elected. The index of the dollar WSJ, reflecting the value of the US dollar against 16 other currencies, decreased by 0.1% to 88.60.

The NZD / USD pair also rose on the eve of the publication of forecasts for milk powder prices for the New Zealand company Fonterra, the largest dairy producer in the country. As you know, milk powder is the main export item of New Zealand. It is expected that the forecast of Fonterra for milk powder prices will rise to 6.75 US dollars per kilogram.

In addition, on Thursday (02:00 GMT), the budget of the New Zealand government is published for the fiscal year 2017-2018. It is expected that the budget will show a moderate surplus and reflect the good state of the national economy. The growth of the budget surplus and the New Zealand economy leads to an increase in expectations about the increase in the key interest rate of the central bank of New Zealand, which will positively affect the New Zealand dollar.

Nevertheless, the RBNZ stated that it will keep its stake on the same level due to the uncertainty surrounding the US economic and foreign trade policy up to Q3 2018.

If the Fed starts a gradual increase in the rate in the US, then the hours of the balance will be steadily and gradually tilt in favor of the US dollar. The difference between the monetary policies of RBNZ and the Fed will remain the main fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar in the next few months.

From the news for today, we are waiting for data from the US, which are published between 12:55 and 14:00 (GMT). Business activity indices (PMI) in the US manufacturing and service sectors for May (preliminary release) should show a slight increase (53.0 and 53.1, respectively). Also today, comments Fed representatives - Neil Kashkari and FOMC member Patrick Harker, at 13:00, 19:00 and 21:00, respectively.

At 22:45 (GMT), the main articles of New Zealand's foreign trade balance for April will be published, which is expected with a decrease in surplus (NZ $ 268 million versus NZ $ 332 million in the previous month). In this case, the New Zealand dollar may decline.

Tomorrow, the attention of traders will be focused on the publication (18:00 GMT) of the protocol from the last meeting of the committee on open market operations of the Fed ("FOMC minutes"), which may contain indications of the future of US monetary policy. Volatility, as always, is expected at this time high for all dollar pairs.

 

Technical analysis

As a result of growth during the last three trading sessions, the NZD / USD pair came close to the resistance level 0.7030 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, the upper limit of the descending channel on the weekly chart). A little below this level, near the mark of 0.7000, the upper limit of the descending channel passes on the daily chart. It's not easy to pass this level to NZD / USD pair.

Only in case of fastening above the resistance level 0.7070 (EMA200 on the monthly chart) can consideration of long medium-term positions in the NZD / USD pair.

The most likely rebound from the current level of 0.7030. As the political tension in the US decreases, the US dollar will begin to recover in the foreign exchange market. In this case, the high probability of a rapid increase in the interest rate in the United States will again come to the fore, and this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar.

The return of the pair NZD / USD under the support level 0.6945 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, March, April highs) will return the downward dynamics to the pair NZD / USD.

The targets will be the levels of 0.6885 (March lows), 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016), 0.6818 (May minima and the bottom line of the downward channel on Day chart).

In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.6818, the global downtrend of the NZD / USD pair, which began in July 2014, will resume. The minima of the wave of this trend are close to the level of 0.6260, which were reached in September 2015, and from which the current upward correction began.

Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6860, 0.6818, 0.6800, 0.6680

Resistance levels: 0.7030, 0.7070

 

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230517-_NU-d.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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S&P500: US indices recovered after falling

24/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

The US stock markets recovered completely after a sharp fall in the middle of last week, which arose amid growing political tensions in the US, which could become an obstacle to the implementation of President Donald Trump's program. However, strong corporate reports and positive fundamental macroeconomic indicators of the US helped keep the stock indices from a deeper fall. An additional positive factor for the US stock markets was yesterday the decline in political confrontation in the US after US President Donald Trump presented the draft budget for 4.1 trillion dollars. According to the budget, which provides for major changes in the social security system, the amount of US government spending in the next 10 years will be reduced by 4.5 trillion dollars. Tax cuts will also help increase economic growth. All together will help to cover the budget deficit, as it is supposed, for 10 years.

Yesterday's hearings in the US Congress, which did not reveal the links of President Donald Trump's campaign headquarters with Russia, also contributed to a reduction in domestic political tension in the United States.

The growth of shares of financial companies and oil and gas companies contributed to the increase in US stock indices for the fourth consecutive session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 20937.00 points yesterday, the S & P500 rose 0.2% to 2398.00 points, Nasdaq Composite - by 0.1% to 6138.00 points.

Today investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed (18:00 GMT), which will look for hints on the timing of the next rate hikes and on plans to reduce the balance of 4.5 trillion dollars.

As the head of the Fed-Philadelphia Patrick Harker said yesterday, "raising rates in June is quite possible". He considers it appropriate to raise interest rates this year two more times.

In itself, an increase in the interest rate will not be able to break the bullish trend of the US stock market, despite the fact that the dollar will receive strong support. As the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, stated more than once, "a rate hike speaks about the strength of the American economy".

From the US continue to receive positive macroeconomic data. Despite some deviation from the forecasted values ​​in the smaller direction, in general, the indicators of inflation and the labor market of the USA point to the growth of the economy in the country. As long as the economy is growing, investors will prefer stocks and other asset-seekers shares and other high-risk risky instruments.

In general, the positive background for the main US stock indices remains.

 

Support and resistance levels

As a result of the four-day growth, the S & P500 index fully recovered losses suffered earlier amid renewed hype around the US president. With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index is trading in a narrow range, pending the publication of the minutes from the May meeting of the Fed. The positive dynamics of the S & P500 index is preserved. Since February 2016, the S & P500 index has been growing steadily and is in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.

At the moment, the S & P500 again tests the resistance level of 2400.0, reached in early March, for breakdown.

The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily chart again turned to long positions. In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be level 2415.0 (the upper limit of the uplink on the daily chart).

The reverse scenario will be associated with breakdown of the short-term support level 2386.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and a decrease with the nearest targets near the levels 2355.0 (bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 2326.0 (April lows). Only the breakdown of support levels of 2275.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2265.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.

Support levels: 2386.0, 2375.0, 2355.0, 2326.0, 2305.0, 2275.0, 2265.0

Resistance levels: 2400.0, 2415.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 2385.0. Stop-Loss 2405.0. Objectives 2375.0, 2355.0, 2326.0, 2275.0, 2265.0

Buy Stop 2405.0. Stop-Loss 2385.0. Objectives 2415.0, 2450.0, 2500.00

 

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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Brent: in the focus of OPEC

25/05/2017

 

Current dynamics[/b]

As the Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia, OPEC and countries outside the cartel stated in Vienna today, they will probably leave the amount of reduction unchanged under the 9-month extension of the deal. According to the minister, if necessary, OPEC may increase the volume of production reduction, but so far it is not necessary. After the Saudi oil minister's speech, oil prices fell sharply.

Meanwhile, the increase in oil production in the US and other major oil-producing countries, largely offset the efforts of OPE to limit oil production. After the entry into force of the OPEC agreement, other countries as a whole reduced production by about 1.8 million barrels a day. During the same time, the US increased production by 750,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the maximum since the summer of 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. And this, apart other countries, such as Brazil, Libya, Canada.

In the US there is an active increase in oil production. So, according to the data provided by American oil service company Baker Hughes on Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States again rose to 720 units in the previous week.

The number of drilling in the US has been steadily increasing since the summer of last year. American investment companies continue to invest in shale companies. At the same time, American drilling companies have developed a number of financial protection tools that insure against losses in the event of a fall in prices. Innovations in the oil industry of the US economy make it possible to achieve all the best results in oil production. The increase in efficiency makes it possible to reduce the cost of production to less than $ 40 per barrel against $ 63 in 2014. There are all prerequisites to the fact that the volume of supply of oil in the US will increasingly increase, further reducing the effect of the agreement within OPEC.

If, at the OPEC meeting, it is announced that it is possible to expand the volume of cuts and further extend after the expiration of the next 9-month period, the price of oil will be a powerful stimulus for growth.

In general, the extension of the deal to reduce production in the same volumes was expected by market participants, and it is mostly already taken into account in prices. It is possible that after a small increase in oil prices will return to a downward trend.

 

Support and resistance levels

The price of Brent crude oil could not gain a foothold above the level of resistance at 54.30 (the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart) and in the course of today's European session is declining.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts went to the side of sellers. On the daily chart, indicators also unfold to short positions.

After the speech of Saudi Arabia's oil minister, the price dropped sharply, reaching a short-term support level of 53.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). If the price roll is repeated downward, and support levels of 53.00, 52.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 on the daily chart) will be broken, it is likely that the price will decline further to support level 51.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In the event of a breakthrough in the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) the price will go deeper into the descending channel on the daily chart and to levels 48.35, 47.10, 46.20. In case of consolidation below level 46.20 (the Fibonacci level of 50% and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.

The scenario for strengthening the price is connected with the breakdown of the local resistance level at 54.30 and further growth in the uplink channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 62.00.

 

Support levels: 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70, 48.35, 47.00, 46.20

Resistance levels: 54.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.50

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 53.80. Stop-Loss 54.30. Take-Profit 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70

Buy Stop 54.30. Stop-Loss 53.80. Take-Profit 55.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

 

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230517-_Br-w.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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GBP/USD: pound is under pressure

26/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

Several fundamental factors that occurred this week contributed to the pound's weakening in the foreign exchange market. According to polls conducted on the eve of June 8, when early parliamentary elections will be held in Great Britain, the support of the ruling Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Teresa May, declined.

In the middle of last month Teresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections. The purpose of these elections is to ensure the dominant position of the Conservative Party in the parliament on the eve of the June elections, in order to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If the Conservative Party has more seats in the parliament, this will neutralize the influence of the supporters of the tough scenario Brexit.

However, among investors, there is growing doubt about the development of this scenario.

Another negative factor for the pound was the terrorist attacks in Britain, where explosions during the concert were blown up this week at the stadium in Manchester. Theresa May raised the level of the terrorist threat to a critical one.

From the side of the macro data, a portion of the negative also arrived. According to the data published yesterday, UK GDP growth for the first quarter was revised downward (+ 0.2% instead of 0.3%, + 2.0% instead of + 2.1% in annual terms, as reported in the first GDP estimate).

Thus, the pound was among the leaders of the fall this week. The GBP / USD pair seems to be closing this week with a decline of almost 1.0% or about 130 points.

From the news for today, we are waiting for data on the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) important macroeconomic indicators will be published: the adjusted value of the GDP index for the first quarter, orders for durable goods for April. If the value of GDP (the second estimate) is revised upward, the dollar will strengthen in the foreign exchange market, including in the GBP / USD pair. This will be another argument in favor of raising the interest rate in the US at a meeting of the Fed on June 13-14.

Conversely, if the indicators come out weaker than expected, this will lead to a decrease in the dollar. Today is Friday, the end of the last full trading week of the month. At the end of the US trading session, it is possible to fix short positions on the dollar, which can cause the dollar to rise and decline against it other major currencies, including the pound.

 

Support and resistance levels

The pair GBP / USD broke through the short-term support level of 1.2950 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and falls to support level 1.2840 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). A little lower, at 1.2800 there is another strong support level of 1.2800 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In the case of an increase in negative dynamics and breakdown of support levels of 1.2700 (bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.2680 (EMA144 on the daily chart), the upward trend of the pair, which began in January 2017, could grow into a downtrend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour and daily charts went to the side of sellers.

On the weekly chart, the indicators also unfold to short positions.

You can return to consideration of long positions for the GBP / USD pair after its return to the zone above the level of 1.2950. In case of breakdown of the local maximum near the 1.3050 mark, the GBP / USD pair growth will resume within the upward channel on the daily chart. The closest target will then be the level of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

Support levels: 1.2790, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Resistance levels: 1.2990, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2955. Take-Profit 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340

Buy Stop 1.2955. Stop-Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.2990, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

 

260517-_GU-d.png

 

260517-_GU-w.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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GBP/NZD: at a strong support level

29/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

Last week, the US dollar strengthened strongly against the pound and about the same weakened against the New Zealand dollar (+ 1.8% and -1.9%, respectively).

The reason for this behavior of the dollar against the pound was associated with a massive decline in the pound in the foreign exchange market after the weak macro data on the UK came out and it became known that the gap between the Labor Party and the Conservative parties had significantly reduced before the elections to the country's parliament.

New Zealand's same currency strengthened after last week the New Zealand government has submitted a budget for 2017-2018. According to this document, a budget surplus is expected, strong GDP growth and tax cuts. The budget indicates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may soon begin to consider raising the interest rate in the country, which is currently one of the highest among the advanced economies (1.75%). The New Zealand dollar became the leader of growth last week.

Proceeding from the above, the fall of the pound against the New Zealand dollar is especially strong.

Today in the UK is a bank holiday. Important economic news in the calendar is also not contained.

Arguments for the growth of the NZD / USD pair:

• The GBP / NZD pair has reached an important support level of 1.8190 (200-period moving average on the daily chart). Even if there is a breakdown of this level and further reduction of the NZD / USD pair, before the further decline, a rebound from the level of support and corrective growth is possible.

• The GBP/NZD has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year.

• After a strong multidirectional movement last week against the US dollar, some correction is expected this week in NZD / USD, GBP / USD pairs.

 

Tomorrow (20:00 GMT) RBNZ will publish a semi-annual report on financial stability. If the report contains information about the difficulties and problems of the effectiveness of the financial system of New Zealand, the New Zealand currency after strong growth last week could significantly adjust, including in the pair GBP / NZD.

 

Support and resistance levels

The pair GBP / NZD broke through the short-term support level 1.8460 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts) and fell to the key support level 1.8190 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Near the level of 1.8460 also passes the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart.

Despite the fact that OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend sales, on short-term periods (1-hour and 4-hour) the indicators turned to long positions, signaling an upward correction. If the NZD / USD pair returns to a zone above 1.8460, its further growth may resume. The closest target will be the recent May highs near the level of 1.8490. More distant targets will be the levels of 1.9300, near which there is an upper bound of the rising channel on the daily chart, 1.9750 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The key date in the further dynamics of the GBP / NZD pair will be June 8, when extraordinary elections to the British Parliament will be held. If the Conservatives win at the head of Prime Minister Theresa May, the pound may sharply strengthen in the currency market, including in the GBP / NZD pair.

The reverse scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the support level 1.8050 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and further decrease towards annual lows near the level of 1.6850.

Support levels: 1.8050, 1.7800, 1.7500, 1.7200, 1.6850

Resistance levels: 1.8460, 1.8940, 1.9300, 1.9750

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.8130. Stop-Loss 1.8210. Take-Profit 1.8050, 1.7800, 1.7500, 1.7200, 1.6850

Buy Stop 1.8210. Stop-Loss 1.8130. Take-Profit 1.8460, 1.8940, 1.9300, 1.9750

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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AUD/USD: attention to retail sales data

30/05/2017

 

Current dynamics

The Australian dollar has recently remained one of the weakest against the US dollar. Despite the fact that earlier in the month the RBA retained the interest rate in Australia at 1.5%, among market participants the opinion is growing that the RBA can go on reducing the interest rate in the country due to a record household debt, a record low salary growth and a weak market Labor. Domestic consumption makes a big contribution to GDP growth. In view of the weak growth in consumption in Australia, some economists forecast zero or insignificant GDP growth for the first quarter.

From the protocol published at the beginning of the month since the last meeting of the RBA, it follows that the bank as a whole is still optimistic about the situation in the Australian economy. However, according to the bank, "an increase in the interest rate will complicate the correction of the economy."

On Thursday, important macro data for Australia will be published, including retail sales for April and companies' investments for the first quarter. A slight, almost zero growth in the level of retail sales is expected in April (+ 0.3%). Another weak data on sales will strengthen the opinion of market participants that the interest rate in Australia will soon be lowered.

The RBA's restrained position on the rate in Australia and, conversely, the Fed's positive view on the process of raising the interest rate in the US strengthen the position of sellers of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

The negative medium-term dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains.

 

Support and resistance levels

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics at different time intervals show mixed dynamics.

Nevertheless, the pair AUD / USD continues to remain within the downward channel on the daily chart, trading below the important resistance levels 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014), 0.7470 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7510 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Fundamental factors create the prerequisites for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.

The nearest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November minima and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.

The alternative scenario is related to the return of the pair AUD / USD to the zone above the level of 0.7510 and further growth to the resistance levels of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% correction to the fall wave from July 2014).

Meanwhile, the negative dynamics of the pair AUD / USD prevails.

 

Support levels: 0.7420, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7460, 0.7470, 0.7510, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7410. Stop-Loss 0.7465. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7465. Stop-Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7535, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7600

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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EuroStoxx50: decline in the fifth consecutive session

31/05/2017

Current dynamics

It seems that the main European stock indexes can finish this week in a negative territory. The election of the president of France is already behind, and the positive momentum begins to fade as weak macro statistics from the Eurozone arrive.

ECB President Mario Draghi earlier this week confirmed that economic recovery is accelerating, but core inflation is still too weak to change the monetary policy of the bank. Here and today in the Eurozone came some macro statistics, which confirm the words of Mario Draghi. So, the preliminary index of consumer prices (CPI) of the Eurozone in May grew by 1.4% (against the forecast of + 1.5% and + 1.9% in April). Unemployment in the Eurozone in April fell by 0.1%, but still remains high (9.3%).

Decrease in indices is observed throughout the world. So, the US stock indexes on Tuesday fell under the pressure of shares of oil and gas and financial companies. The oil and gas subindex in the S & P500 showed the worst results for the day, falling by 1.3%. The European StoxxEurope600 index lost another 0.3% on Tuesday, with banks and insurance companies leading the decline. The EuroStoxx50 index was down yesterday for the fifth consecutive session.

At the beginning of today's European trading session, the EuroStoxx50 index is trading in a narrow range near the mark of 3554.0, however, is under pressure from incoming weak macro statistics for the Eurozone.

As has been repeatedly announced by the leaders, the ECB is unlikely to go on winding up the extra soft monetary policy at the moment. The ECB management believes that the growth of the Eurozone economy is still weak enough to begin curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone. So far, this supports European indices. And still, among investors, there is talk that the ECB may announce the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone. The ECB's next meeting on monetary policy will be held on June 8. As ECB leaders said earlier, the rate hike will not begin earlier than the quantitative easing program, at which the European Central Bank will buy European assets worth 60 billion euros a month, will be completed.

 

Support and resistance levels

At the beginning of the month against the backdrop of the election of the new French president, the EuroStoxx50 index reached a new annual maximum near the mark of 3680.0. After that, a gradual decline in the index started, and at the moment the EuroStoxx50 index is traded at the short-term support level of 3550.0 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

If the EuroStoxx50 index falls further, the next target will be the support level of 3525.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).

The level is strong enough. In general, the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index remains. In case of rebound from the level of 3525.0, the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume. At least, the ECB's propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy contributes to this.

Medium-term short positions will become relevant only after the EuroStoxx50 index falls below the level of 3500.0 (March and April highs on the eve of the first round of presidential elections in France). The reduction targets will be support levels 3435.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the wave of growth since June 2016), 3380.0 (EMA144), 3325.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Support levels: 3525.0, 3500.0, 3435.0, 3380.0, 3325.0

Resistance levels: 3580.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 3520.0 Stop-Loss 3590.0. Take-Profit 3500.0, 3435.0, 3380.0, 3325.0

Buy Stop 3590.0. Stop-Loss 3520.0. Take-Profit 3600.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

 

310517-_ESX50-_H4.png

 

310517-_ESX50-_D.png

 

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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AUD/USD: Against the background of weak macro data from China

01/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

After extremely volatile trading, the Australian dollar fell sharply during the Asian session today. After the release of optimistic data on retail sales in Australia in April (+ 1.0% vs. the forecast + 0.3%), the Australian currency strengthened. This is the largest monthly increase in more than two and a half years. However, soon the Australian dollar fell sharply after China's production report, which turned out to be weak, was published. The index of supply managers (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector from Caixin Media Co. In May, it fell to 49.6 (against 50.3 in April).

China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner and a consumer of Australian iron ore and coal. The growth of the Australian economy still depends heavily on the commodity sector. And the decline in commodity prices, as well as the slowdown in the economy of the Australian partner countries, have a strong impact on the Australian dollar, undervaluing its value.

At the same time, despite the unexpected growth in retail sales in April, other statistics still indicate a limited increase in consumer spending. Domestic consumption makes a big contribution to GDP growth. In view of the weak growth in consumption in Australia, some economists forecast zero or insignificant GDP growth for the first quarter.

The consumer confidence index is weak, salaries are growing slowly, and purchasing power is limited. House prices also began to decline, which unleashes the hands of the RBA in the matter of lowering the interest rate.

Earlier this month, the RBA retained its interest rate in Australia at 1.5%. However, the RBA can go on reducing the interest rate in the country due to record household debt, a record low salary growth and a weak labor market.

At the same time, the US dollar is showing growth today in the foreign exchange market.

Despite the problems that have arisen with the administration of the US President in implementing the plans for a new economic policy, investors focus on positive macro statistics coming from the United States.

President of the Fed-San Francisco and FOMC member John Williams today expressed confidence that the strengthening of the US economy justifies "three or four rate hikes" this year.

Thus, the difference between the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBA is the main driver for reducing the pair AUD / USD.

Today we are waiting for data from the USA. Between 12:15 and 14:00 (GMT) a whole block of important macroeconomic indicators is published. Among the data - the index of business activity ISM in the manufacturing sector (in May) and the index of gradual acceleration of inflation. We expect weaker indicators than in the previous month, which could negatively affect the dollar. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, the figures look very positive. Also worth paying attention to the report of ADP on the level of employment in the private sector of the US for May. Investors often consider it a harbinger of the NFP, although no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls is usually noted. Strong data positively affects the dollar. Here the growth is expected (185,000 versus 177,000 in April), which will support the US dollar. In general, macro statistics are expected to be very positive, which will have a positive impact on the US dollar, including in the pair AUD / USD.

 

Support and resistance levels

Since mid-March, the AUD / USD pair is actively declining in the downlink on the daily chart. The pair AUD / USD is below the important resistance levels 0.7510 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014, as well as the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour Chart).

The negative dynamics prevails.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.

The closest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November, May minima and the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.

The alternative scenario is related to the return of the pair AUD / USD to the zone above the level of 0.7510 and further growth to the resistance levels of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% correction to the fall wave from July 2014).

Fundamental factors create the prerequisites for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.

 

Support levels: 0.7380, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7420, 0.7460, 0.7510, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680

 

Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7380. Stop-Loss 0.7420. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7420. Stop-Loss 0.7380. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7510, 0.7535, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7600

 

010617-_AU-_H4.png

 

010617-_AU-daily.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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XAG/USD: pending publication of data from the labor market

02/06/2017

Current dynamics

The focus of attention of all participants of financial markets today is the publication of data from the US labor market, which is scheduled for 12:30 (GMT). Very positive data are expected. Thus, according to the forecast it is expected that the growth of the average hourly wage will be 0.2% (against 0.3% in April), unemployment will not grow (4.4% against 4.4% in April).

But perhaps the main focus will be on Non-Farm Payrolls (the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy).

Yesterday Automatic Data Processing Inc. And Moody's Analytics reported data that in May the number of jobs in the private sector in the US increased by 253,000, which is significantly better than the forecast (185,000 and 174,000 in the previous month). This is the highest growth in the number of jobs since 2014.

Recent positive macro data from the US significantly strengthened investors' opinion that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25% on June 13-14. So, positive ADP data on employment contributed to the growth of the dollar and the yield of treasury bonds. The index of the dollar WSJ rose by 0.2%, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.225% from 2.198% recorded on Wednesday.

Investors are not so much worried about slipping into plans to reform the tax system and stimulate budget spending in the US, focusing on macroeconomic indicators. So, the index of business activity ISM published in the manufacturing sector (for May) released yesterday with a value of 54.9 (the forecast was 54.5 and 54.8 in April). The index of business activity ISM in the manufacturing sector of the US economy is an important indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole. Along with the data from ADP, the publication of the ISM index further stimulated the closing of short positions in the dollar on the eve of today's NFP publication.

The Fed pays particular attention to data on the number of jobs, and by many investors they are perceived as the most important indicator of the state of the American economy. Now, many investors expect the Fed to raise rates more rapidly.

That's the president of the Fed-San Francisco and FOMC member John Williams today, that the strengthening of the US economy justifies "three or four rate hikes" this year.

If the data from the labor market, which are published today, really "do not disappoint", then the dollar will receive a powerful positive impulse before the Fed meeting on June 13-14. Then the market participants will have no doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors. Precious metals, which do not bring interest income, become cheaper in the conditions of the rate increase; the cost of their acquisition and storage is growing.

With disappointing data on the US labor market, the dollar may weaken significantly in the foreign exchange market, and demand for precious metals, particularly silver, with the continuing political tension in the US around President Donald Trump will grow again.

 

Support and resistance levels

The pair XAG / USD could not gain a foothold above the key resistance level of 17.35 (EMA200 and the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart) and the third day is falling.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

The pair XAG / USD is in the zone of short-term support levels 17.18 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 17.14 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). If the NFP data prove to be strong, the pair XAG / USD will break through the levels of 17.18, 17.14 and go to the support level of 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to fall in the pair since August 2016 and level 20.59) with the prospect of a downward movement - 15.72 (low of 2016).

You can return to consideration of long positions after fixing a pair above the level of 17.35.

Support levels: 17.18, 17.14, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Resistance levels: 17.35, 17.58, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 17.10. Stop-Loss 17.28. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Buy Stop 17.28. Stop-Loss 17.10. Take-Profit 17.35, 17.58, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75

 

020617-_XGU-d.png

 

020617-_XGU-h4.png

 

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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GBP/USD: on the eve of parliamentary elections

05/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

The PMI index (or the index of business activity) for the UK services sector in May was 53.8 (the forecast was 55.0, which is lower than the April index of the index 55.8). This index is an indicator of the economic situation in the service sector of Great Britain. The PMI of the UK service sector does not have such a strong impact on GDP as PMI in the manufacturing sector or the level of retail sales and consumer activity in the UK. At the same time, the decline in the PMI index for the service sector negatively affects the British currency. After the publication (08:00 GMT) of this index, the pound declined in the foreign exchange market.

Nevertheless, the GBP / USD pair closed its sharp decline (with a gap of 30 points after the next terrorist act in Great Britain last weekend) during today's European session at the opening of today's trading day.

Against the backdrop of the weakening dollar, the GBP / USD pair remains positive ahead of the June 8 elections to the UK Parliament.

As you know, in mid-April, British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections to ensure the dominant position of the Conservative Party in Parliament.

It is likely that in these 3 days before the election to the UK Parliament the frequency of various sociological polls of the country's population will increase, which will cause an increase in the volatility in the pound trades.

The elections, which will be held in the UK on June 8, attract the attention of investors. In the case of a significant advantage of conservatives in parliament, British Prime Minister Theresa May will probably be able to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If this happens, then the pound may significantly strengthen in the foreign exchange market.

This Thursday also will be a meeting of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, and next week will be a meeting of the Fed. It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. Nevertheless, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. Probably, all the same, that the risks associated with the implementation of the new economic policy of President Donald Trump, as well as his statements about the desirability of a cheaper dollar, outweigh the sellers of the dollar.

Thus, if conservatives manage to get a convincing majority in the June 8 elections, then the GBP / USD pair can significantly strengthen. Otherwise, the pound and GBP / USD pair are expected to weaken in the foreign exchange market.

In any case, this week, especially on the eve of June 8, the pound is expected to have increased volatility with sharp movements in both directions.

 

Support and resistance levels

The GBP / USD pair is currently trading near the balance line and the level of 1.2885, through which the 200-period moving average passes on the 1-hour chart. The GBP / USD pair keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, above the key support levels of 1.2840 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2800 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of buyers.

In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.2925, the pair GBP / USD growth will resume, and the GBP / USD pair will go to the resistance levels 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

In the case of breakdown of the support level 1.2800 and further reduction in support, the level will be 1.2700 (EMA144 on the daily chart).

Further GBP / USD dynamics will in many respects be determined by the dynamics of the dollar and the comments of the Fed, which will be sounded on June 14, after the decision on the interest rate in the US is made.

Support levels: 1.2885, 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2760, 1.2700, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Resistance levels: 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.2855. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2760, 1.2700, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2855. Take-Profit 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

 

050617-_GU-h4.png

 

050617-_GU-d.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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XAU/USD: investors prefer safe havens

06/06/2017

Current dynamics

The dollar continues to be under pressure following Friday's disappointing US labor market data for May. As you know, despite the fact that the unemployment rate in the US fell by 0.1% to a level of 4.3%, the NFP was significantly below the forecast. The number of jobs outside of US agriculture in May increased by 138,000 compared with April (the forecast was +184,000).

Against the backdrop of a number of political and economic events that have recently occurred and are expected this week, investors prefer to withdraw their savings into safe haven assets - government bonds, yen, precious metals.

Strengthening tensions in the Middle East around Qatar, a number of recent terrorist attacks in Britain, lower expectations of budget stimulation of the US economy, the expectation of the speech of former FBI director James Komi before the US Congress on Thursday, as well as parliamentary elections in the UK and the ECB meeting also scheduled for Thursday - here are the main geopolitical risks that increase the demand for gold and other safe assets.

Gold enjoys strong demand even though the probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of gold. This precious metal does not bring interest income and can not compete with assets that generate such income, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the cost of acquiring gold and its storage is growing.

And, nevertheless, the increased geopolitical risks promote active purchases of gold.

So, at the beginning of today's European session, gold is trading near the level of 1288.00 dollars per troy ounce, which is $ 20 or 1.5% higher than the opening price of the current month.

At the same time, the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, fell to a value of 88.16, approaching the levels where it was before the victory of Donald Trump in the November 8 elections.

It is likely that before June 8, when the elections to the British Parliament and the ECB meeting on monetary policy are held, the pair XAU / USD will maintain a positive trend with a propensity for further growth.

 

Support and resistance levels

Having rebounded from the support level of 1220.00 (the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), since the middle of last month the pair XAU / USD continues to grow actively within the upward channel on the daily chart.

The nearest target and resistance level of 1292.00 (Year and April highs) can be passed to the nearest trading session. A more distant goal is the resistance level of 1305.00, just above which the upper limit of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart. The highs of the previous wave of growth of the pair XAU / USD are near the level of 1370.00.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.

The reverse scenario is related to the return of the pair XAU / USD to support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) and further decrease to support levels 1257.00 (EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50%). Breakdown of the key support level of 1240.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will increase the risks of a return to the downtrend.

Support levels: 1277.00, 1261.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00

Resistance levels: 1292.00, 1305.00

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1278.00. Stop-Loss 1293.00. Take-Profit 1270.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00

Buy Stop 1293.00. Stop-Loss 1278.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1400.00

 

060617-_XU-d.png

 

060617-_XU-h4.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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AUD/USD: GDP data supported the Australian dollar

07/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

While all the attention of investors is concentrated these days on Europe, the Australian dollar has received powerful support today from positive macro statistics and is actively growing in the foreign exchange market. The Australian dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market, and the AUD / USD pair has been growing for the fourth consecutive session.

According to the data released today, Australia's GDP in the first quarter grew by 0.3% (the forecast was + 0.2%) against + 1.1% in the previous quarter and by 1.7% in annual terms (forecast was +1.5 %). The data turned out to be better than the forecast, which inspired market participants, who resumed purchases of the Australian currency, despite the fact that this is the slowest annual GDP growth rate since 2009.

The growth of the Australian economy continues for 26 years after the recession that ended in the early 1990s. Over the years, the country's economy has become one of the most sustainable in the world.

Nevertheless, slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP can not but alarm the monetary authorities and the Australian government.

As you know, yesterday, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved, the capacity utilization has increased, however, there are other risks for the country's economy that restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy.

At the same time, the slowdown in China's economy, Australia's largest trade and economic partner, its high debt levels represent an external medium-term risk factor for economic growth in Australia.

On Thursday (01:30 GMT), the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish data on the foreign trade balance of Australia for April. A decrease in the balance surplus is expected to reach 1.91 billion Australian dollars. First of all, it is necessary to pay attention to the export data, which is the most important component of the country's budget. Reduction of the balance and export level surplus may negatively affect the quotations of the Australian dollar.

Also on Thursday and Friday during the Asian trading session in China, published a number of important macroeconomic indicators (for May). If the data indicate deterioration in China's foreign trade balance and a slowdown in inflation, the Australian dollar may also react with a decline.

 

Support and resistance levels

The AUD / USD pair broke the key resistance level 0.7510 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart) at a strong positive momentum at the beginning of the month from the support level of 0.7375 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart and on the weekly chart) and develops an upward trend.

The pair AUD / USD is trading in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts went to the side of buyers.

The pair's growth will continue with the targets of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014), provided the US dollar remains weak. A more distant medium-term goal in this case is the level of 0.8000 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). If the positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains, this goal can be achieved by September-October of the current year.

The reverse scenario implies a return to the descending channel on the daily chart and the resumption of the decline in the wave that began in mid-March. The breakdown of the short-term support level at 0.7460 (EMA200 on 1-hour, 4-hour charts and 23.6% Fibonacci level) will confirm this scenario. The nearest medium-term goal in case of further decline in the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November and May lows). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum of wave in the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.

Support levels: 0.7510, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7490. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7680, 0.7760

 

070617-AU-daily.png

 

070617-AU-h4.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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DJIA: US stock indexes are rising

08/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

Despite all the volatility of foreign exchange markets and the uncertainty in the world political arena observed in recent weeks, the US stock market remains stable, as evidenced by the continued growth of major US stock indexes.

While the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against 16 other currencies, declined in recent months to a level near the level of 88.00 (on Tuesday the index closed at a minimum since November 4), and the yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to the level of 2.1 % -2.2%, US stock indexes are breaking new records. So, the S & P500 index rose by 1.2% in May. DJIA and S & P500 rose for the second month in a row. But the biggest increase is demonstrated by the technological index Nasdaq, which in May grew by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq index has been growing for the seventh month in a row.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes shares of the largest US banks, also demonstrates a stable upward trend, which began in February last year.

Even after the publication of an ambiguous report on the US labor market, published last Friday, the main US stock indexes rose again. The unemployment rate reached a minimum in May for 16 years, down to 4.3% from 4.4% in April. In general, the report on the US labor market is favorable enough for the Fed to raise interest rates next week. The probability of this is estimated by investors at about 90%.

"Given the good state of the economy", as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker said last week, we can expect further growth in US stock indices, even though the Fed will raise the interest rate.

Uncertainty about the implementation of the new economic policy of US President Donald Trump seems to be less worrisome for investors who are betting on the growth of the US stock market.

Today and tomorrow, a volatility surge is expected in the foreign exchange market due to the fact that

the ECB decides on the interest rate, there will be elections in the UK, and in the US, a former FBI head James Komi will speak in a Senate committee, testifying to the possible impact of Russia on the election campaign in the US, which can further complicate the position of President Donald Trump . The most cautious traders today took a wait-and-see attitude.

With respect to the US stock indices, we can say that strong corporate reports for the first quarter, evidence of a stable recovery in the US economy, and a policy of gradual increase in interest rates in the US create the basis for further growth of the US stock market.

 

Support and resistance levels

At the beginning of the month the DJIA index exceeded the recent annual highs near 21170.0 and closed last week at the new absolute maximum of 21200.0.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts continue to remain on the side of buyers. The DJIA index continues to grow in the ascending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts. In case of breakdown of the level 21200.0, the growth of the index may continue.

 In the alternative scenario, a short-term correction to the lower border of the uplink and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart (level 21115.0) is possible. Deeper correction movement is possible to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart (level 20600.0).

If the downward trend is to increase, then the decline in the index may extend to support levels of 20360.0 (April lows), 19990.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and December highs), 19850.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% are near the mark of 21170.0).

The positive dynamics of the US stock market and DJIA index remains. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 19850.0 can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.

Support levels: 21170.0, 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0

Resistance levels: 21200.0, 22000.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 21090.0. Take-Profit 21220.0, 22000.0

Sell ​​Stop 21090.0. Stop-Loss 21220.0. Take-Profit 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0

 

080617-_DJIA-_Daily.png

 

080617-_DJIA-h4.png

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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XAG/USD: The dollar is strengthening

09/06/2017

Current dynamics

The third trading session the dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market against the assets-shelters - yen, franc, precious metals. The dollar received an additional positive impulse today after the first results of the elections to the UK Parliament became known, and after the ECB yesterday's meeting. As you know, the ECB kept the benchmark interest rate at 0%, the deposit rate - at the level of -0.4%, the rate on marginal loans - at the level of 0.25%. The QE program, in which the ECB monthly buys European assets worth 60 billion euros, has also remained unchanged.

The pound today collapsed in the foreign exchange market immediately after the first results of the exit poll of the elections became known yesterday at 21:00 (GMT), according to which the Conservatives and its leader, the current Prime Minister of Britain, Theresa May, failed to achieve an absolute majority in the country's parliament. The ruling Conservative party, although it remains the largest in the parliament, received 314 of 650 seats. Most votes are provided by 326 seats. Any factors that increase uncertainty around Brexit will be negative for the pound and the British stock market.

The US dollar, meanwhile, is building up its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, rose yesterday by 0.1%, to 88.21.

Now, after the ECB meeting, investors' attention shifts to a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which will be held on June 13-14. Most market participants expect an interest rate increase of 0.25%.

August gold futures fell 1.2% yesterday, to 1278.20 dollars per troy ounce.

Other precious metals, in particular silver, are also falling in price. The pair XAG / USD is down today for the third consecutive session, trading during today's European session near the mark of 17.35 dollars per troy ounce. The probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.

And, nevertheless, the continuing geopolitical risks, as well as political uncertainty in the UK, the US, France, where elections to the local parliament will also take place this weekend, support the demand for precious metals.

Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data from the labor market of Canada, which may increase volatility in the foreign exchange market.

 

Support and resistance levels

For the past 4 weeks, the pair XAG / USD has skyrocketed in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart, the upper limit of which is close to the level of 17.86.

At the moment, after a three-day corrective decline, the pair XAG / USD is trading near support levels of 17.25 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).

 Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.

The reduction scenario is associated with a breakthrough in the support level at 17.25 and a further decline in the downward channel on the daily chart with targets of 16.85 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the fall of the pair since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016 ).

The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD are the levels of 17.58 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts.

More distant medium-term targets are the levels 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

In the dynamics of the pair XAG / USD, one should pay attention to the current correlation with the pairs USD / JPY (-85%), XAU / USD (71%). Given the rather high cross-correlation, and how these pairs are relative to key support levels (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the conclusion suggests: either the pair XAG / USD will grow slightly (within 1.0% - 1.5%), Or remain at the current level of 17.35 (key support level (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), but provided that the dollar in pairs USD / JPY, XAU / USD increases by the same amount (1.0% - 1.5%).

In the current situation of geopolitical uncertainty and on the eve of the Fed meeting next week, both options are possible.

Support levels: 17.35, 17.25, 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Resistance levels: 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 17.23. Stop-Loss 17.46. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Buy Stop 17.46. Stop-Loss 17.23. Take-Profit 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

 

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

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NZD/USD: when will the pair begin to decline?

13/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

This week a number of important events will take place: meetings of central banks of Switzerland, Great Britain, Japan. However, the focus of traders will be a two-day meeting of the Fed (June 13-14) and the Fed's decision on the interest rate, which will be published June 14 at 18:00 (GMT). Forecast: the rate will be increased by 0.25% to 1.25%. After the decision on the interest rate, a comment on the monetary policy (FOMC Statement) is published and the press conference of the Federal Reserve begins. In the period of publication, a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market, and market participants will study the statement of the Fed on the presence of signals for further plans for monetary policy.

Higher interest rates tend to support the dollar, making US assets more attractive to investors, and putting pressure on commodity prices and commodity currencies. If the Fed signals about the possibility of one or two more rate increases this year, the US dollar will receive significant support.

Also on Wednesday (at 22:45 GMT) a report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter is published. Forecast: + 0.7% (previous value + 0.4%). The publication of data will cause increased volatility in NZD. Against the background of rising prices for agricultural products in recent years (especially for dairy products, which is an important part of New Zealand's exports), it is likely that the report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter will come with positive indicators, and this will positively affect the positions of the New Zealand currency.

If the GDP report turns out to be worse than expected, and the Fed signals about the possibility of further interest rate hikes, then the NZD / USD pair may drop sharply and finally begin a corrective downward movement to the pair's active growth from the middle of last month.

Otherwise, the pair NZD / USD will continue its upward movement against the backdrop of positive macro data coming in from New Zealand recently.

We also await data from New Zealand on the balance of payments for the first quarter (it is expected that the negative balance was 1 billion New Zealand dollars against the surplus of 1.18 billion NZ dollars in the 1st quarter of last year), which are published today at 10:45 (GMT) And data from China (retail sales, industrial production in May) on Wednesday morning, which will increase the volatility of trades on the New Zealand dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support and Resistance levels

As a result of active growth, which began in the middle of last month, the pair NZD / USD broke through a strong resistance level of 0.7190 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) and came close to the resistance level of 0.7235 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global fall wave from the level of 0.8800 , Which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016).

A little higher, through to the resistance level of 0.7270 is the 200-period moving average on the weekly chart. Thus, the NZD / USD pair is in the zone of strong resistance levels. For further growth and breakdown of these levels, the pair NZD / USD needs strong positive fundamental drivers, for example, signals from the RBNZ about the possibility of an early interest rate increase in New Zealand. The next meeting of the RBNZ on this issue will be held on June 21, ie. Already next week.

As you know, RBNZ last month kept interest rate at 1.75% and stated that interest rates will remain unchanged for quite a long time, at least until the third quarter of 2019. If, however, in the rhetoric of the bank will be marked a more rigid position, the New Zealand dollar will receive a strong support, and then the resistance level of 0.7270 can be passed.

Otherwise, the New Zealand dollar and the pair NZD / USD are waiting for a decline.

While the RBNZ seeks to keep the current monetary policy unchanged, the Fed says it plans to gradually tighten monetary policy in the US. The difference between the monetary policies of the RBNZ and the Fed will remain the main fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar in the next couple of years, despite the possible growth periods for the NZD / USD pair over several weeks.

The return of the pair NZD / USD to the short-term support level 0.7165 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further decline in the NZD / USD pair and in the medium term with a target near the key support level of 0.7050 (EMA200, EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart).

By the way, indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily period begin to unfold on short positions.

Support levels: 0.7190, 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6860, 0.6818

Resistance levels: 0.7235, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7190. Stop-Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6820

Buy Stop 0.7240. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380

 

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) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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GBP/USD: inflation "eats" the wages of Britons

14/06/2017

 

Overview and dynamics

Despite the fact that the Fed is expected to raise the key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point following its two-day meeting, which will end today, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, decreased by 0.2%, to 88.31. The probability of such a decision on the part of the Fed is estimated by investors at 100%.

Nevertheless, market participants are waiting for a press conference (will begin at 18:30 GMT) and comments of the Fed to assess further plans for interest rates and reducing the balance.

The rate increase today at 0.25% is already taken into account in prices. And if the Fed signals about the suspension of tightening monetary policy, the US dollar will further fall. Slowing inflation in the US could alert the Fed.

So, today at 12:30 (GMT) a block of the most important macro data from the USA is published, including inflation indices (retail sales and consumer price index for May). Nearly zero growth in May is expected (+ 0.1% and + 0.0%, respectively), which again indicates a slowdown or a very weak inflation rate in the US.

If the Fed signals about the possibility of raising the rate one or two more times this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. The likelihood of such a scenario is also possible. As the Fed officials said more recently, the central bank can go on raising rates, despite a weak inflation rate, in order to avoid overheating the economy and the growth of soap bubbles in the US stock market.

As for the pound, yesterday, along with the Canadian dollar, it was among the leaders of growth against the US dollar. The pound rose on strong inflation data from the European session yesterday (the consumer price index in the UK rose to 2.9% in May in annual terms (the forecast was + 2.7%)), the highest level in nearly four years.

Today, the pair GBP / USD demonstrates the reverse dynamics and declines at the beginning of the European session. According to the data published on Wednesday, the level of wages adjusted for inflation fell for the second consecutive month compared to the same period last year. Real wages declined by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. This could negatively affect the growth of the British economy, which is highly dependent on domestic consumption. Consumer spending is an important component of UK GDP growth.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (11:00 GMT) decides on the interest rate. It is likely that the interest rate will remain at the same level of 0.25%. Also at this time are published: a report on the monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as with comments on the state of the economy; the protocol of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with the distribution of votes for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The Bank of England will be very cautious about the issue of raising the interest rate, despite the high level of inflation in the country.

The intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains. In the period of publication of the decision of the bank and during its subsequent press conference, the volatility of the pound trade is expected, which is already characterized by its high intraday volatility.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

 

Technical analysis

Despite support from strong inflation data, the pair GBP / USD failed to break through resistance level 1.2800 (EMA200 on 1-hour and daily charts), and after the publication of data on the labor market in the UK in the European session again declining.

The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit.

At the moment, the pair GBP / USD is trading at support level 1.2715 (EMA144 on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of the support level of 1.2640 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair will accelerate.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

Negative dynamics prevails. The pair GBP / USD decline will continue with the nearest targets near the levels 1.2550, 1.2340, between which the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the weekly chart.

The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2825 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% GBP / USD in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 and the upper limit of the rising channel on the daily chart).

Support levels: 1.2715, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2825, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2770. Take-Profit 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Buy Stop 1.2770. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

 

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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AUD/USD: after the Fed meeting

15/06/2017

Current dynamics

As a result of a two-day meeting, the Fed raised yesterday the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. The decision was expected, and the dollar reacted with sufficient restraint to it. The dollar began to strengthen later, when at 18:30 (GMT) the FRS press conference began, from which it became known that the Fed is planning another increase towards the end of the year, as well as cutting its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. The portfolio of FRS assets rose to the current level from 800 billion dollars before the crisis, which was due to a number of bond purchase programs aimed at reducing long-term interest rates.

According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by the strengthening of the dollar.

Thus, the Fed once again confirmed its intention to tighten monetary policy in the US.

As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved; however, there are other risks for the country's economy, which restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy. Slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP will restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy.

The volatility of commodity prices, in particular iron ore, one of Australia's major export commodities, and their propensity to decline against the expected strengthening of the US dollar, also represents one of the significant risks to the Australian economy, which still retains the raw material features in many respects.

The Australian dollar has grown today after the release of data showing a sharp increase in employment and a drop in the unemployment rate. Thus, the unemployment rate in May fell to 5.5% from 5.7% in April. The number of employees increased by 42,000 (with a growth by forecast of 10,000). The Australian labor market data was optimistic and supported the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, the divergence of the directions of the monetary policy of the Fed and other world central banks supports the US dollar. This situation can also be attributed to the pair AUD / USD. If the Fed plans to raise the interest rate, the RBA intends to adhere to the current rate at least until the second half of 2018.

We are waiting for today news from the US, which will increase volatility in pairs with the US dollar, including in the pair AUD / USD. A number of important macro data will be published between 12:30 and 14:00 (GMT), among which the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decrease to 242,000 versus 245,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the US dollar. Also data on industrial production in the US for May and the use of production capacity will be published.

However, today and in the near future investors will still assess the results of the two-day meeting of the Fed and the increase in the interest rate in the US.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

 

Support and resistance levels

Unlike other major currency pairs, the pair AUD / USD rose today during the Asian and European sessions, which was supported, among other things, by positive data from the Australian labor market published this morning.

Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to the indications of the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts are deployed to short positions. On the general background of today's US dollar growth, the AUD / USD pair is likely to follow other dollar-denominated currency pairs. If in the course of the US trading session there are positive macro data on the US, it will probably become the trigger for the fall of the AUD / USD pair.

"First Swallow" will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 0.7580 (EMA50 on the 1-hour chart). The fall in the AUD / USD pair in this case may continue to the support level of 0.7540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The breakdown of the support level of 0.7514 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will confirm the scenario for the fall of the pair AUD / USD. The closest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the levels of 0.7495 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).

The following targets in case of breakdown of this support level - 0.7330 (November, May lows), 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.

If the pair AUD / USD maintains its positive dynamics, its growth will continue with the targets of 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014).

Support levels: 0.7580, 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300

Resistance levels: 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7640. Take-Profit 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300

Buy Stop 0.7640. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760

 

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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XAG/USD: The dollar will build up positions

16/06/2017

Current dynamics

After on Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, the dollar is steadily increasing its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60. The central bank also made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, which provided additional support to the dollar. Yesterday, ambiguous macro data on the United States came out. Although the weekly report on the number of claims for unemployment benefits showed a value of 237,000 against the forecast of 242,000, the labor market in the US looks quite stable.

As you know, on Wednesday the Fed raised the interest rate by 25 basis points, to the range of 1-1.25% and signaled the possibility of another rate hike near the end of the year. The US Central Bank also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year.

Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive for investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.

The Fed raised the rate, despite the recent slowdown in consumer inflation in the US. The Fed also reiterated that it plans to cut its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by a strengthening of the dollar and, again, a decline in the price of gold and silver. Precious metals are getting cheaper, even despite the continuing geopolitical tensions. Apparently, the prospect of another increase near the end of the year outweighs the chalice in favor of sellers and exerts additional pressure on the assets of the shelter, including silver.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support and resistance levels

The price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. The XAG / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.14 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% corrective growth to the pair's decline since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016) and continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts.

The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.72 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will become a medium-term goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and a decline in the pair XAG / USD.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers’ side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the levels of 16.85, 17.00. The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.35, 17.58 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts.

More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

Negative dynamics still prevails.

Support levels: 16.65, 16.20, 16.05, 15.72

Resistance levels: 16.85, 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 16.65. Stop-Loss 16.85. Take-Profit 16.20, 16.05, 15.72

Buy Stop 16.85. Stop-Loss 16.65. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

 

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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Brent: the number of drilling in the US rose again

19/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

The new trading week, the price of oil begins with a decline. Brent crude futures for ICE Futures fell to $ 47.23 a barrel during today's Asian session. Published on Friday, data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes showed that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase.

Earlier, quotes of oil fell for four consecutive weeks. Despite the recent extension of the OPEC-Russia deal to reduce oil production for another 9 months, the excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by 17%, losing the positions won after the deal in late 2016.

The increase in oil production in the United States and other major oil-producing countries largely offset OPEC's efforts to limit oil production. After the entry into force of the OPEC agreement other countries as a whole reduced production by about 1.8 million barrels a day. During the same time, the US increased production by 750,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the maximum since the summer of 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. And this apart from prey in other countries, such as Brazil, Libya, Canada.

Libya recently reported plans to increase oil production by 160,000 barrels per day. Previously, production in Libya at these facilities was suspended for almost two years. According to experts, by the end of July, daily oil production in Libya could grow to 1 million barrels.

There are all prerequisites to the fact that the volume of oil supply in the US will also increase more and more, further reducing the effect of the agreement within OPEC. Increasing the efficiency of oil production in the United States can reduce the cost of production to less than $ 40 per barrel against $ 63 in 2014.

Now investors expect further price reductions and are hedged against the potential drop in oil prices in the coming months below $ 41 per barrel.

 

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support and resistance levels

On a weekly chart, the price of Brent crude oil broke the lower border of the rising channel near the current level of 47.10 and develops a downward trend. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. On the monthly chart the indicators also unfold to short positions.

At the beginning of the month the price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and is currently declining to The support level is 46.20 (the Fibonacci level is 50.0%). In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled.

The scenario for strengthening the price is connected with the breakdown of the local resistance level of 48.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and further growth within the rising channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 62.00.

Nevertheless, negative sentiments continue to dominate the oil market, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.

Support levels: 47.10, 46.20, 45.50

Resistance levels: 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 47.10. Stop-Loss 47.80. Take-Profit 46.20, 45.50, 43.50

Buy Stop 47.80. Stop-Loss 47.10. Take-Profit 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00

 

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

 

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XAG/USD: precious metals are getting cheaper amid plans of the Fed

20/06/2017

Current dynamics

 

After last Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, precious metals continued to go down in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60, to the level of 88.75 on Monday. The American Central Bank made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, and also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year.

According to the CME Group, futures on interest rates by the Fed show that the probability of another increase in Fed rates this year is about 47% (against 41% last week).

Rising rates usually support the dollar, making it more attractive to investors. Higher interest rates also lead to the sale of precious metals, which do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.

President of the Fed-New York William Dudley said on Monday that he was "very confident" of "long-term" economic growth in the US, which is the third longest in the history of the United States. American stock markets are growing steadily. The weakening of the hype surrounding US President Trump, the stabilization of the political situation in the Eurozone after the presidential and parliamentary elections in France, also contribute to reducing political risks and prices for precious metals.

Nevertheless, further strengthening of the dollar clearly lacks an additional positive momentum.

Some weaker than expected macro data from the US, some people question the Fed's determination to further tighten the monetary policy in the US. Perhaps, the statements of a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve scheduled for this week will once again give confidence to investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar.

For example, on Tuesday, scheduled speeches by the president of the Fed-Boston Eric Rosengren, executive director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan and Deputy Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer. On Friday, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and FRS President St. Louis James Bullard will deliver a speech.

 

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

 

Support and resistance levels

Meanwhile, the price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. Today, with the opening of the trading day, the price of silver is growing, however, the negative trend continues. The pair XAG / USD broke through the important support levels of 17.33 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.10 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 16.88 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the pair decline since August 2016 and level of 20.60) and Continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts with immediate targets near the levels of 16.15, 15.73 (low in 2016)

The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.73 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will be the goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and the decline of the pair XAG / USD for the next 3-4 weeks.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the level of 16.88.

More distant goals in the case of the resumption of the growth of the pair XAG / USD - the levels of 17.33 (May highs), 17.59 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). Here, the top line of the descending channel passes on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts.

More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the XAG / USD pair - the levels of 18.18 (Fibonacci 50% and EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.76 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

So far, negative dynamics prevails. Support levels: 16.30, 16.15, 15.73

Resistance levels: 16.88, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.18, 18.76

 

Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 16.45. Stop-Loss 16.70. Take-Profit 16.25, 16.15, 15.73

Buy Stop 16.70. Stop-Loss 16.45. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.17, 18.48, 18.76

 

 

 

200617-_XGU_H4.png

 

200617-_XGU_daily.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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GBP/USD: it's too early to think about raising rates

21/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

As you know, last week the Bank of England kept its interest rate at 0.25%; however, it surprised the market participants. Three of the eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to tighten monetary policy, citing signs of accelerating inflation in the UK. This information caused a sharp reaction of the markets. The GBP / USD pair strengthened in the moment by 100 points, however, subsequently the pound declined; The Bank of England did not take any measures in either direction.

Nevertheless, the pound continues to remain under pressure in the foreign exchange market amid political uncertainty. Conservatives failed to achieve an absolute majority in the British parliament, and talks between British Prime Minister Therese May on the formation of a coalition with the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist party have reached a deadlock. After the June 8 elections, the pair GBP / USD fell by about 350 points. And the pressure on the pair seems to be mounting.

Yesterday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that it is still too early to think about raising rates in the UK, which further lowered the expectations of British currency buyers for its growth.

As shown by the data published last week, real wages in May decreased by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. Consumer spending is one of the important components of GDP growth in the UK, and their decline adversely affects the growth of the British economy.

Today (at 10:30 GMT) the Queen of Great Britain is expected to speak, at 11:00 - Andrew Haldane, Executive Director for Monetary and Credit Analysis and Statistics of the Bank of England, as well as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, and on Friday (18:00 GMT) - member of the Committee for Monetary Policy of the Bank of England Christine Forbes.

It is likely that key representatives of the Bank of England will also express their opinion in the spirit of their boss Mark Carney about the prematureness of raising rates in the UK, which will further weaken the position of the pound.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support and resistance levels

After the parliamentary elections in Great Britain on June 8, the GBP / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 1.2800 (EMA200 on day and 4-hour charts), 1.2715 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart) and develops a downward trend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit.

In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2430 (the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), the GBP / USD pair will go to the support levels of 1.2370, 1.2110, 1.2000 (the minimums of the global wave of the GBP / USD decline, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

Negative dynamics in the pair GBP / USD prevails.

The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2800 with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement correction from 1.7200 level), 1.3300 (upper Border of the rising channel on the daily chart).

Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2110

Resistance levels: 1.2640, 1.2715, 1.2800, 1.2950, ​​1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.2580. Stop-Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Buy Stop 1.2650. Stop-Loss 1.2580. Take-Profit 1.2715, 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, ​​1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300

 

210617-_GU-_Daily.png

 

210617-_GU-_Weekly.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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Brent: the reduction of stocks in the US did not change the mood of investors

22/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

According to a weekly report released yesterday by the US Department of Energy, US oil inventories fell by 2.451 million barrels last week (the forecast was expected to reduce inventories by 2.1 million barrels). Immediately after the publication of the Ministry of Energy data, oil prices went up, however, for a short time. Growth was unstable, and in the next three hours the price for Brent crude oil fell by $ 1.7 to $ 44.7 per barrel.

WTI futures on NYMEX traded yesterday with a decline of about 2.4%. Contracts for Brent crude fell by 2.63% to 44.81 dollars per barrel.

This behavior of the price can only be explained by one thing: investors do not believe that OPEC's efforts will help restore the balance in the oil market and strengthen prices. Moreover, the countries of the cartel began to sell oil from their own storage facilities, while still cutting production. The increase in production in Nigeria and Libya, part of OPEC, but exempt from the reduction obligations, weakens the hopes for the restoration of oil prices. The US has been very successful in this situation, which continues to increase oil production, filling the vacant niche in the oil market. Oil production in the US last week increased again, by 20,000 barrels per day, more than 9.3 million barrels per day, the highest since summer 2015.

The number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase. Excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by about 28%, completely losing the positions won after the conclusion of the OPEC deal in late 2016.

Today, there is a slight recovery in the price of oil after a non-stop three-day decline. Nevertheless, the oil market is dominated by a strong negative momentum. The oil market seems to be shifting again into a bearish phase.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

 

Support and resistance levels

On a weekly chart, the Brent oil price broke the lower border of the rising channel near the level of 47.50 and develops a downward trend. On the daily chart, the price came very close to the lower boundary of the descending channel, passing near the mark of 44.65.

Today, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts have turned to long positions. However, this indicates for the time being a short-term upward correction. On daily and weekly charts, indicators remain on the side of sellers.

Negative dynamics is growing at an accelerated pace. The price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 46.20 (Fibonacci level 50.0%). There are two remaining milestones left - support levels of 43.50 (November lows), 41.70 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), the breakdown of which will finally return prices for Brent crude oil in a downtrend. In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled.

Return to consideration of long positions is possible only if the price returns above the short-term local resistance level of 47.25 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and the level of 47.50 (the lower limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).

The oil market is dominated by negative sentiment, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.

Support levels: 44.65, 43.50, 41.70

Resistance levels: 45.50, 46.20, 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 44.90. Stop-Loss Section 46.10. Take-Profit 44.65, 43.50, 41.70

Buy Stop 46.10. Stop-Loss 44.90. Take-Profit 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35

 

220617-_Brent-_Daily.png

 

220617-_Brent-_Weekly.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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DJIA: investors are pausing

23/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

After the active growth and the achievement earlier this week of new one-month highs, the main US stock indexes suspended growth. The DJIA index is down for the fourth consecutive day, however, since the opening of today's trading day is trading in a narrow range near the mark of 21400.00. It seems that investors took a pause before the publication of fresh macro data on the US economy.

At 13:45 and 14:00 (GMT) will be published indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector and services sector (PMI business activity from Markit Economics) in the US for June, as well as a report on the sale of new homes in the US in May . The PMI index is an important indicator of the business environment and the general state of the US economy. The indicator, exceeding the mark of 50, in general is a positive factor for US stock indices. The expected growth in indicators will support the dollar and stock indexes.

At 18:15 (GMT), the speech of FOMC member Jerome Powell will begin. From it, investors will want to hear information about the prospects for inflation and interest rates in the US. If Powell, like the other leaders of the Fed this week, speaks in favor of a softer scenario of raising rates in the US, this will support American indices.

American stock indexes rose on the basis of the current month, which ends next week. Macro statistics coming out across the US are generally quite positive to have a positive impact on US stock markets.

Their positive dynamics are still being preserved.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support and resistance levels

On Tuesday, DJIA exceeded its recent annual highs and reached a new absolute maximum near the mark of 21538.0. Nevertheless, subsequently the DJIA index decreased and today at the beginning of the European session is traded at the short-term support level of 21380.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart).

Here, the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the 4-hour chart. The current level is quite strong, and about the arrival of today positive macro data from the US DJIA index can rebound from this level of 21380.0 and resume growth.

At the same time, the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts turned to short positions, signaling a possible continuation of the downward correction. There may be a correction decrease to the level of 21117.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Deeper correction movement is possible to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart (level 20900.0).

If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may continue to support levels of 20500.0 (the May lows and EMA144 on the daily chart), 20360.0, 20158.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, December highs and Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to wave growth from the level 15660.0 after the recovery in February this year to a collapse in the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark of 21538.0).

The positive dynamics of the US stock market and DJIA index remains. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 20158.0 can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.

Support levels: 21380.0, 21170.0, 20900.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 20158.0, 19300.0

Resistance levels: 21538.0, 22000.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 21460.0. Stop-Loss 21310.0. Take-Profit 21538.0, 22000.0

Sell ​​Stop 21310.0. Stop-Loss 21460.0. Take-Profit 21170.0, 20900.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 20158.0

 

230617-_DJIA-_Daily.png

 

230617-_DJIA-_H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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EuroStoxx50: stock indexes are growing today

26/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

Today, global stock indexes are growing. The stabilization of oil prices renders support to the stock market. In recent days, there has been a sharp drop in energy prices.

The price of WTI oil last week fell by more than 20% from the February high. Fears of investors regarding the further decline in prices remain against the background of an overabundance of oil supply in the world.

Despite OPEC measures to limit production, world oil reserves in the world remain at high levels. A sharp fall in oil prices led to a decline in key indices.

The last three days the price of oil is recovering. Oil Brent went up today by 1.4% to 46.20 dollars per barrel. The sub-index of the oil and gas sector StoxxEurope 600 rose by 0.9%.

Other major European stock indices (CAC40, DAX30, EuroSTOXX50) are also growing today. The growth of European indices is also promoted by the growth of shares of European banks after on Sunday the authorities of Italy announced that they are ready to spend 17 billion euros in the process of liquidation of two regional creditors.

EuroSTOXX50 grew today by 0.7% in the first three hours since the beginning of the European trading session to the level of 3575.0.

Positive macro data, received from Germany at the beginning of the European trading session, also contributed to the growth of the indexes DAX30, EuroSTOXX50.

The index of economic expectations in Germany in June was 106.8 (forecast was 106.4), the German business sentiment index in June was 115.1 (forecast was 114.4), the current conditions in Germany in June 124.1 (forecast Was 123.3).

Now investors are waiting for data from the Eurozone on inflation, which will be published later on Friday. Annual inflation in June is expected to slow in Italy, Spain, France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole to 1.2% from 1.4% in May, reaching its lowest level in 2017. If the forecast is justified, then the ECB's predilection for the reduction of the QE program is expected to decline even more.

As you know, in early June, the ECB kept its benchmark interest rate at 0%. The QE program, in which the ECB monthly buys up European assets worth 60 billion euros, also remained unchanged. The ECB Governing Council stated that the curtailment of the QE program has not yet been planned and is even ready to increase the volume of the quantitative easing program if necessary.

And this is a positive factor for the European stock market.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

 

Support and resistance levels

And yet, despite today's growth, the EuroStoxx50 index remains under pressure, gradually decreasing in the descending channel on the daily chart. Only in case of breakdown of resistance levels 3590.0 (the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart), 3610.0 (June highs) can we speak about restoring the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index and its further growth.

The reverse scenario is connected with the breakdown of the support level 3542.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the further decrease of the EuroStoxx50 index with the immediate target at the support level of 3495.0 (the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart and the April highs observed on the eve of the presidential election in France).

And at the same time, the medium-term positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index remains, while the index is above the key support level of 33.80 (EMA200 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of growth since June 2016).

In case of breakdown of the level 3610.0, the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume within the uplink on a weekly chart. At least, the ECB's tendency to continue the extra soft monetary policy promotes this.

Support levels: 3542.0, 3495.0, 3380.0

Resistance levels: 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 3540.0 Stop-Loss 3580.0. Take-Profit 3510.0, 3495.0, 3435.0, 3380.0

Buy Stop 3580.0. Stop-Loss 3540.0. Take-Profit 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

 

260617-_E500-_Daily.png

 

260617-_E500-_Weekly.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

 

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XAU/USD: the dollar drops before the performance Janet Jellen

27/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

With the opening of today's trading day, and especially at the beginning of the European session, the dollar is falling in the foreign exchange market. Published yesterday, data from the US Department of Commerce showed a reduction in orders for durable goods in May by 1.1% compared to the previous month, which was the strongest decline in six months. Demand for durable goods in the US in May fell for the second consecutive month.

Other macro data from the US also come out with weaker indicators. So, published on Friday, indicators of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors in the US declined in June. The preliminary index of supply managers (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector in June fell to 52.1 against 52.7 in May, reaching a 9-month low. The preliminary index of supply managers (PMI) for the US service sector fell to a 3-month low, reaching 53 versus 53.6 in May.

The decline in macroeconomic indicators and the low level of inflation in the US can not but worry the Fed leaders.

Previously, the Federal Reserve raised the key interest rate to a range of 1% -1.25%, saying it expects another rate hike this year. However, market participants do not believe that the Fed can really proceed with further tightening of monetary policy amid weak data on inflation in the US.

"The US Federal Open Market Committee can refrain from actions and analyze the development of the macroeconomic situation in the coming quarters", said Fed President St. Louis James Bullard on Friday.

Today, market participants will wait for the speech of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, which will start at 5:00 pm (GMT). If Janet Yellen again signals about the Fed's inclination to tighten monetary policy, confirming its view that slowing inflation is a temporary phenomenon, then the dollar will quickly regain its positions in the foreign exchange market.

According to the CME Group, futures for interest rates by the Fed indicate that the probability of another increase in the Fed's rates this year is about 50%. Rising rates usually support the dollar, making it more attractive to investors. At the same time, prices for precious metals, denominated in US currency, are declining.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support and resistance levels

Meanwhile, the price of gold is growing with the opening of today's trading day. The pair XAU / USD pushed back from the support level of 1245.00 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart), however, its growth stopped at the short-term resistance level of 1253.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The pair XAU / USD is in the descending channel on the 4-hour chart. More seriously to the recovery of the upward movement of the pair XAU / USD can be attributed only after its consolidation above the resistance level 1257.00 (EMA200, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the 4-hour chart).

 If the trend of strengthening the dollar will gain momentum, then the price of gold will continue to decline gradually. The return of the pair XAU / USD into the zone below the key support level of 1245.00 will strengthen its negative dynamics.

The breakdown of the support level of 1220.00 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) will increase the risks of a return to the downtrend.

Support levels: 1248.00, 1245.00, 1236.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00

Resistance levels: 1253.00, 1257.00, 1260.00, 1277.00, 1295.00, 1305.00

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1249.00. Stop-Loss 1254.00. Take-Profit 1245.00, 1236.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00

Buy Stop 1254.00. Stop-Loss 1249.00. Take-Profit 1257.00, 1260.00, 1277.00, 1295.00, 1305.00

 

 

270617-_XU-_Daily.png

 

270617-_XU-_H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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EuroStoxx50: European stock indexes are down

28/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

Statements made by ECB President Mario Draghi on Tuesday at a conference in Portugal provoked a sharp rise in the euro and a fall in European stock indices.

Mario Draghi said that "all the signs now point to the strengthening and expansion of the basis for the recovery of the Eurozone economy." Draghi spoke very cautiously about the ECB's monetary policy, saying that "it is necessary to reasonably approach the adjustment of the parameters of our policy in response to the improvement of the economic situation in order to ensure the combination of our incentives with the restoration of the economy against the background of continuing uncertainties."

At the same time, Draghi repeated that "it is necessary to persevere in carrying out our monetary and credit policy. Any changes in its direction should occur gradually and only if the justification for improving the dynamics seems to be quite reliable, "and" interest rates should be low so that the growth rate can recover ". Recall that the ECB's key rate (on deposits for commercial banks) has remained negative since June 2014.

And, nevertheless, Draghi's speech was perceived by market participants as a hint at the likelihood of curtailing the incentive program in the Eurozone in the near future. Now, many market participants expect that the ECB will begin to close the quantitative easing program in January 2018, and after the completion of the curtailment of the QE program, the ECB will gradually raise deposit rates and refinancing rates.

The euro showed the strongest growth for the year yesterday, while the prices of Eurozone bonds and most European stocks fell. At the same time, the yield of government bonds of countries such as Germany, France and Italy has risen sharply.

EuroSTOXX50 continues to decline today, losing about 1.4% during two incomplete days and trading at the beginning of the European trading session near the 3510.0 mark. If the ECB really starts to curtail the QE program in the Eurozone, the euro will continue to strengthen, and the European stock indexes decline.

Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on the speeches of the heads of central banks of Great Britain, Japan, Canada and the Eurozone, which will begin at 13:30 (GMT). In this period of time, a surge in volatility is expected in the foreign exchange market, including world stock markets.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support and resistance levels

The EuroStoxx50 index broke yesterday the support level of 3542.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and remains under pressure, decreasing in the descending channel on the daily chart. In case of breakdown of the support level of 3495.0 (June lows and April highs observed on the eve of the presidential elections in France), the EuroStoxx50 index will continue to decline. The reduction targets will be the support levels 3420.0 (EMA144 and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), 3380.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline wave since April 2015 and from the level of 3840.0).

Only in case of return to the zone above the level of 3542.0 can we speak about restoring the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index. In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 3610.0 (June highs), the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume within the uplink on a weekly chart, the upper limit of which is just near the Fibonacci level of 100% (the beginning of the decline wave since April 2015 and the level of 3840.0).

Support levels: 3495.0, 3420.0, 3380.0

Resistance levels: 3542.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 3490.0. Stop-Loss 3525.0. Take-Profit 3420.0, 3400.0, 3380.0

Buy Stop 3525.0. Stop-Loss 3490.0. Take-Profit 3542.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

 

280617-_ES500-_Daily.png

 

280617-_ES500-_Weekly.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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S&P500: investors remain optimistic

29/06/2017

 

Overview and dynamics

American stock indexes retain a positive trend against the backdrop of sales of government bonds. The yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, rose on Wednesday to 2.223% from 2.198% on Tuesday. Investors remain confident that US economic growth is strong enough. At the same time, there were also speculations that weak inflation in the US would force the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates.

The index of Nasdaq Composite on Wednesday showed the most significant growth since November and increased by 87.79 points (by 1.4%) to 6234.41 points. Growth in the price of shares of technology and financial companies contribute to the growth of US stock indices. Shares in the technology sector in the S & P500 this year increased by almost 19%, and on Wednesday again showed the leading dynamics, rising by 1.3%. The financial sector in the S & P500 grew by 1.6% yesterday. The index itself S & P500 gained 0.9%, rising above the mark of 2440.0.

Newly rising oil prices also contribute to the growth of oil and gas stocks in the S & P500 index. Despite the release of data that recorded an increase in US oil inventories in the last week, Brent crude futures rose 0.9% to $ 47.95 per barrel.

If Donald Trump can keep his promise and reduce corporate taxes, this will further promote the growth of US indices.

Thus, there is every reason to assume that the positive dynamics of US stock indices will continue, probably even before the end of the year, when the Fed again can raise the interest rate.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Technical analysis

The index continues to grow in the ascending channels on the daily, weekly charts. At the beginning of today's European session, the index trades above the short-term support level of 2435.0 (EMA50 on the 4-hour chart, EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In June, the index updated the absolute maximum near the mark of 2453.0.

Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts turned to short positions. A downward correction is likely with the immediate goals of 2435.0, 2421.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Only the breakdown of the support level at 2395.0 (the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart and the highs of February and April) can cause a deeper correction to the level of 2355.0 (May lows). The breakdown of the support level of 2305.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction for growth since February 2016) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.

Nevertheless, the positive dynamics of the S & P500 index remains. After the breakdown of the resistance level of 2453.0 (June highs), the growth of the index will resume.

Support levels: 2435.0, 2421.0, 2405.0, 2395.0, 2355.0, 2305.0

Resistance levels: 2453.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 2405.0. Stop-Loss 2417.0. Objectives 2388.0, 2355.0, 2326.0, 2305.0, 2280.0

Buy Stop 2417.0. Stop-Loss 2405.0. Objectives 2450.0, 2500.00

 

290617-_S500-_H4.png

 

290617-_S500-_Daily.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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Brent: prices are recovering

30/06/2017

 

Current dynamics

Oil prices continue to recover. The rise of the last days has become the longest since April. The price of Brent crude is growing for the seventh consecutive session.

Prices received additional support from data on the reduction of oil production in the US last week by 100,000 barrels per day.

By the beginning of today's European session, August futures for WTI crude oil on the NYMEX were trading at $ 45.21 per barrel, with an increase of $ 0.28, while Brent crude futures gained 0.63% to $ 47.72 per barrel. Prices for these types of oil this week rose by more than 5%.

The spot price for Brent crude is approaching $ 48.00 per barrel at the beginning of the European session. Also, the growth of oil prices contributes to the weakening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. The probability that in December the Fed can raise the rate by another 0.25% goes into the background. Investors' attention this week was focused on the statements of the leaders of several of the world's largest central banks (Europe, Great Britain, Canada) about the possibility of an early tightening of monetary policy in these countries, which led to the growth of currencies of these countries against the US dollar.

Nevertheless, the fundamental factors for oil prices remain rather negative. Excessive supply in the market can grow on the background of increased oil production in Libya and Nigeria.

The number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by 11 units to 758 units, which was the 23rd consecutive week of the increase. Excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high.

Investors are still not sure about the stabilization of oil prices. If the US again grows oil production, then pessimism can again return to the oil market. Despite the current price increase, a negative impulse prevails in the oil market.

Today (17:00 GMT) publishes a weekly report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices. At the moment, the number of active drilling platforms in the US is 758.

 

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support and resistance levels

Last week, the price of Brent oil broke the lower border of the rising channel weekly chart near the level of 47.70 and develops a downward trend within the falling channel on the daily chart.

The lower boundary of this channel passes near the level of 43.50 (November minima).

The price is below the key resistance level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 46.20 (Fibonacci level 50.0%) .

Corrective growth may continue to the resistance level of 48.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), from which the price may again return to a downtrend.

 On the monthly and weekly charts, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators remain on the sellers’ side.

In the event of breakdown of support levels of 43.50 (November lows), 41.70 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), the price of Brent crude will finally return to a downtrend.

Return to consideration of long positions is possible only if the price returns to the zone above the short-term local resistance level of 48.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

The oil market is dominated by negative sentiment, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.

Support levels: 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.55, 43.50, 41.70

Levels of resistance: 48.65, 50.00, 50.70

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 47.30. Stop-Loss 48.30. Take-Profit 47.00, 46.20, 45.50, 44.55, 43.50, 41.70

Buy Stop 46.10. Stop-Loss 44.90. Take-Profit 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35

 

300617-_Brent-_Daily.png

 

300617-_Brent-_H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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AUD/USD: RBA decision on the rate

03/07/2017

Current dynamics

Tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT), the RB of Australia publishes an interest rate decision. It is widely expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 1.5%. The growing Australian dollar is not profitable for the recovery of the Australian economy, whose GDP growth rates in the first quarter have already slowed.

Last week was marked by the fact that representatives of the Bank of England, Bank of Canada and the ECB signaled a tendency to tighten monetary and credit policy. However, the RBA is unlikely to follow in the footsteps of the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the ECB.

And yet, even a slight hint of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe on the positive state of the Australian labor market and the Australian economy could trigger the growth of the Australian dollar. In this case, amid weakening expectations of an increase in the rate from the Fed, the pair AUD / USD could rush to the level of 0.8000.

Conversely, the soft tone of the RBA's accompanying statement will help to weaken the AUD and lower the AUD / USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support and resistance levels

The AUD / USD pair remains positive dynamics, trading in the upward channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts.

The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly charts are on the buyers’ side.

However, it's worth noting that on the 1-hour, 4-hour chart, the OsMA and Stochastics indicators went to the sellers' line, signaling the beginning of a downward correction.

The correction targets are support levels of 0.7625 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7560 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

In case of breakdown of the level of 0.7560, further decrease to the key support level of 0.7525 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart) is possible. The targets in case of further decline of the pair will be the levels of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline of the pair from July 2014, the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830), 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330 (November and May lows).

The breakdown of the support level of 0.7330 will call into question the uptrend of the pair AUD / USD.

 If the pair AUD / USD maintains its positive dynamics, after its return to the zone above the level of 0.7690 (the upper line of the rising channel on the daily chart), its growth will continue with the targets 0.7710, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.8000 (EMA200 and the upper line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 0.7625, 0.7560, 0.7525, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330

Resistance levels: 0.7690, 0.7710, 0.7760

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7680. Take-Profit: 0.7625, 0.7560, 0.7525, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420

Buy Stop 0.7680. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7690, 0.7710, 0.7760, 0.8000

 

030717-_AU-_Daily.png

 

030717-_AU-_H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

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