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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 26, 2021

As we expected on Monday, the price spent the entire day sideways. The close of the daily candle was white, and the upward sentiment remained. The growth target is 115.80, and the signal level for continued growth to the target is the resistance at 114.45, which stopped the price on October 15, 18 and 21. The Marlin Oscillator is moving horizontally, which keeps the likelihood of a continuation of the downward correction to the support of the price channel line at 113.12 at about 35% - just like yesterday.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator crossed the border into bull territory. The price develops growth under the balance and MACD indicator lines, which creates difficulties for it. The MACD line is located near the signal level of 114.45, respectively, the price transition above the signal level will give the price an accelerated growth. We are waiting for the development of events.

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Gold will confidently reach the $ 3,000 mark in a few months

Gold has been recently rebounding a lot at the level of $ 1,800. However, experts believe that it will not only be able to break out of this narrow range but will also start a confident rally.

On Tuesday, the yellow asset failed to withstand the onslaught of a stronger US dollar and fell below the psychologically important level of $ 1,800, which it broke a day earlier. As a result, the session on the New York Stock Exchange COMEX bullion ended with a decline. Gold plummeted by 0.7%, or $13.40, dropping to $1,793.40.

Meanwhile, silver also changed the route to a downward one. Yesterday, the gray asset sank by 2.1% or 50 cents. It was last seen at the level of $24,088.

The main downward factor for precious metals was the growth of the US currency. On October 26, the dollar index rose 0.2%. The US dollar was supported by new economic statistics.

On Tuesday it became known that the American consumer confidence index rose to 113.8 in October compared to the revised value of 109.8 in September.

The prices for the yellow metal fell on the same day amid investors' profit-taking. Despite the decline in the value of the asset, experts emphasize that an upward trend remains on the gold's daily chart.

Analyst Chintan Karnani believes that bullion has a chance to continue its short-term rally if quotes break through the key level of $ 1,800 again. At this stage, gold has all the prerequisites to do this.

Now, when the whole world is afraid of rising prices again and is on the verge of hyperinflation, the demand for the precious metal is growing noticeably, since gold is traditionally considered one of the best tools for hedging inflationary risks.

Many traders have already realized that central banks are wrong and global inflationary pressure will not be temporary. Analyst David Garofalo predicts that when the majority understands this, gold will move to steady growth.

The expert believes that after this strong aftershock occurs in the precious metals market, the asset will not only break its previous record but also soar much higher than $ 2,000. According to him, the price of bullion can reach the $ 3,000 mark.

Moreover, this will not happen within a few years, as other analysts predicted earlier, but literally in a few months. The rally of gold will be very rapid, D. Garofalo is convinced.

At the same time, his colleagues warn investors about the existing risks. The growth potential of the precious metal may be severely limited by forecasts regarding a more rapid increase in real interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.

Analysts advise traders to monitor any comments from the regulator on the pace of future rate increases. The next meeting of the Federal Reserve, where this issue may be raised casually, will be held on November 2-3.

The central theme of the meeting should be the beginning of a reduction in bond purchases. Statements on this topic can also affect the value of gold. Experts predict that a more rapid curtailment of incentives will lead to a decrease in quotes.

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EUR/USD: US dollar is behind the euro, although it secretly wants to take the lead

The Euro currency rose after the ECB's monetary policy meeting. However, experts believe that this fact has caused a significant blow to the dominance of the US dollar.

As a result of the meeting, the European regulator retained its previous monetary strategy. However, analysts are confident that representatives of the regulator may change the current decision and revise the quantitative easing (QE) programs at the next meeting.

The "dovish" comments of ECB chairman Christine Lagarde helped the euro to rise and bypass its dollar rival in the EUR/USD pair. In particular, the euro was supported by statements about inflation. The regulator expects further growth in the near future and subsequent decline during 2022. According to Lagarde, the eurozone economy continues to recover, although at a slower pace than expected.

The current situation allowed the EUR/USD pair to break through the upper limit of the current range and briefly rise to 1.1700. On Thursday, the bullish mood remained for this instrument, when it managed to reach a new monthly high of 1.1686. On the morning of Friday, the pair slightly lost its position, trading near the level of 1.1670. It was supported by the collapse of the US dollar across the entire spectrum of the market.

The US currency collapsed to its lowest level in a month on the background of the triumphant euro. Experts emphasize that this decline occurred at the maximum pace over the past two weeks. The disappointing data on US GDP also worsened the situation. According to the US Department of Commerce, this figure increased by 2% in the third quarter of 2021, which turned out to be worse than forecasts. It can be recalled that analysts expected GDP to rise by 2.6%. However, the spread of the COVID-19 delta strain and supply disruptions have made their own adjustments.

This year, the American economy showed higher growth rates, which contributed to the overestimated expectations of specialists. In the first quarter of 2021, US GDP increased by 6.3% per annum, and in the second quarter, it reached a record 6.7%. However, the indicators of the third quarter brought the markets below, disappointing with their statistics.

According to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, supply disruptions will continue in the United States until the middle of next year. This problem, along with the shortage of goods, will negatively affect further production in the country. In such a situation, experts warn that consumer spending will sharply decrease, and inflation rates will remain high.

An additional factor that pressures the US dollar is the expectation of a reduction in the Fed's stimulus programs. Many experts believe that the regulator will begin to cut incentives starting next month and it will raise the interest rate in 2022. The implementation of such a scenario will allow the EUR/USD pair to test the level of 1.1680 and head to new peaks. According to currency strategists at TD Securities, extrapolating the strength of the euro may create problems in the EUR/USD pair before the Fed meeting, at which a reduction in incentives will be announced.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 2, 2021

The USD/JPY pair's growth target is the 115.80-116.15 range. The USD/JPY pair grew by 5 points on Monday, breaking the signal level of 114.32 with the upper shadow of the daily candle.

It may seem that in case of a failed price transition above the signal level with a decreasing Marlin Oscillator, the price will continue to fall, but here another reading of the oscillator is connected: its decline, marked with a red line, is a correction from the growth marked with a thick azure line. Marlin has not yet left the territory of the positive trend, with a high degree of probability the oscillator may turn upwards from the current levels. Also, the 114.32 signal level can be determined by mistake, because yesterday the price reversed from earlier levels - from the peaks on October 15 and 18. To break the upward trend, the price needs to do a very strong thing - to overcome the support of the embedded line of the price channel of the higher timeframe near the price of 113.15.

The price convergence with the oscillator continues to develop on the four-hour chart. Under favorable circumstances, the Marlin reversal from the forming support can occur from the current levels. It will become an assertive growth after the price has overcome yesterday's high of 114.46. The growth target is the 115.80-116.15 range. The benchmark for this target is the August 2015 low and the January 2015 low.

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 2, 2021

On Monday, the euro corrected Friday's fall by 47 points to move above the target level of 1.1572. But this does not cancel the downward trend from October 29th – a reverse return of the price under 1.1572 will strengthen the price's desire for the previously noted target of 1.1448.

The Marlin Oscillator is in a positive trend zone, its rate of change after Friday's fall in the euro has slowed down. This creates preconditions for the formation of its convergence with the price when it drops to the target level of 1.1448. This is the main scenario. It can be broken with the price settling above the MACD indicator line, above 1.1628. The 1.1750 target will open.

The four-hour chart shows that the price growth took place below the balance indicator line, that is, in line with the general downward trend. The Marlin Oscillator went above the zero line a little yesterday, into the area of the growing trend, but it still cannot strengthen there. After the price settles below 1.1572, we expect the development of a downward trend.

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US stock markets are gushing with records: news from the US supports euphoria

On Tuesday, the leading indicators of the US stock market soared to record highs amid spectacular internal statistics of companies from the United States. The published reports of large enterprises have significantly improved investor sentiment regarding their securities.

Another tangible growth factor for the main indicators of Wall Street was the restless expectation by stock market participants of the results of an important meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

As a result, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite stock indexes were at historical highs for the fourth consecutive session. Thus, the first of them increased by 0.37% to 4630.65 points, and the second – by 0.34% to 15649.60 points.

Meanwhile, the DJIA indicator reported another record closing for the third session in a row, gaining 0.39% and breaking through the 36,000 mark (Tuesday's trading result – 36052.63) points for the first time in history.

The strong reporting of companies from the United States in the third quarter against the backdrop of the recovering economy after the pandemic significantly exceeded the expectations of market participants. Most major manufacturers were able to increase product prices, maintain a steady level of profit margin and take advantage of high demand by increasing their revenue.

Spectacular reports from the largest US manufacturers continue to provide tangible support to the stock market. At the time of writing, about 320 companies have published internal statistics.

According to analysts' forecasts, the profit of the companies that make up the S&P 500 index in the third quarter will increase by 40.2% compared to the same period in 2020.

Shares of the American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer soared by 4.1% after the company announced that it expects sales of the COVID-19 vaccine, created jointly with the German manufacturer BioNTech, to increase to $36 billion. In the third quarter of this year, Pfizer's net profit increased 5.5 times, and revenue - 8.5 times. In addition, the company's analysts have significantly improved the annual forecast.

The stock quotes of the electric car manufacturer Tesla lost 3% on Tuesday. The company plans to recall more than 11,000 electric vehicles. The reason for the recall is an error in the software. Another important downward factor for Tesla securities was a message on Twitter from the company's director, Elon Musk. In his social network account, the entrepreneur announced that the deal with the American company Hertz Global Holdings Inc. for the purchase of 100,000 Tesla electric vehicles remains unsigned.

Shares of ConocoPhillips oil company from the United States sank 2.1%. It is reported that in the third quarter the company returned to profit due to a jump in the cost of hydrocarbons. In addition, the adjusted indicator significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts.

The long-awaited results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System are still in the focus of attention of stock market participants this week. Experts expect that on Wednesday the regulator will approve plans to reduce the $120 billion bond purchase program adopted to support the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, traders are waiting for comments from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates and the duration of the current surge in inflation.

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In the US, strong data on the labor market spurred the growth of stock indices to new records

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 203.72 points (0.56%) to 36327.95 points. Standard & Poor's 500 rose by 17.47 points (0.37%), that is, to 4697.53 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 31.28 points (0.2%) to 15971.59 points.

Over the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.4%, the S&P 500 rallied 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3%.

Pfizer Inc. Shares jumped in price by almost 11% by the end of trading. The pharmaceutical company said preliminary results from a trial of a drug it developed to treat COVID-19 showed 89 percent effectiveness. Pfizer plans to request FDA approval for the drug and expects to be able to begin shipping this year.

Merck & Co., another pharmaceutical company that is also developing a drug to treat COVID-19, fell 9.9%. Merck said last month that its drug reduced the risk of severe illness in 50% of cases.

Peloton Interactive Inc. collapsed by 35%. The company lowered its revenue forecast for the current year to $ 4.4-4.8 billion from the previously expected $ 5.4 billion, admitting that it underestimated the impact of the lifting of restrictions in the economy on its business. Peloton's sales forecast for the upcoming holiday season - $ 1.1-1.2 billion - turned out to be worse than the average forecast of experts polled by FactSet at $ 1.49 billion.

The papers of the portable camcorder manufacturer GoPro Inc. jumped 7.9% on the company's strong quarterly earnings. Earnings excluding one-off GoPro factors in the last quarter amounted to $ 0.34 per share, exceeding the consensus forecast of experts at the level of $ 0.2 per share, revenue increased by 13% to $ 317 million with an average market forecast of $ 292 million.

Uber Technologies Inc., which beat market forecasts in the third quarter, gained 4.2%, while Airbnb, which posted a record quarterly performance, gained 13%.

According to FactSet, about 82% of the S&P 500 companies that published their earnings for the past quarter beat earnings that beat analysts' expectations.

The number of jobs in the US economy in October increased by 531 thousand, at a maximum rate in three months, the Department of Labor said. According to the revised data, in September the figure increased by 312 thousand, and not by 194 thousand, as previously reported.

Unemployment in the United States fell to 4.6% in October, the lowest level since March 2020, down from 4.8% in September.

Experts on average expected an increase in the number of jobs in October by 450 thousand and a decrease in unemployment to 4.7%, according to data from Trading Economics.

The situation in the labor market is a key factor in the decisions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) regarding the future level of the base interest rate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a press conference following the November 2-3 meeting of the US Central Bank that the maximum employment in the US economy can be achieved by the second half of 2022.

At the last meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to start curtailing the asset repurchase program. The central bank said it will reduce the volume of asset buybacks in November by $ 15 billion and will continue to cut the program in December.

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USD to climb higher amid possible key rate hike in 2022

Market participants have been expecting the Fed to raise the benchmark rate for several months. However, analysts are concerned about the possible negative impact on the US dollar, although this is a rather unlikely scenario.

Earlier this week, James Bullard, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said that in 2022 the Fed would raise the interest rate at least twice. The regularize is expected to complete the QE tapering in the middle of next year.

These measures will help keep inflation under control, he stressed. "If inflation is more persistent than we are saying right now, then I think we may have to take a little sooner action in order to keep inflation under control," Bullard said in an interview. Regarding the possible hike in the key rate three or four times in 2022, Bullard evasively replied that it might occur.

Mr. Bullard believes that the US economy will expand at a fairly rapid pace next year. In 2022, the unemployment rate is projected to decrease as well and inflation will return to the target level. The global supply chain disruptions are the main cause of currently high inflation. These risks are likely to persist throughout next year, he said.

Naturally, uncertainty over the key rate is weighing on the greenback. Bullard's statements about two to four rate hikes may undermine the US dollar's growth. Many analysts note that the Fed is gradually preparing markets for a key rate hike. They are sure that it may happen quite soon. The US currency is trying to hold at its current levels. At the same time, the EUR/USD pair is also making attempts to resume the upward movement. Most of its attempts are successful. On November 8, the greenback slightly dipped to 1.1588, but then recouped its losses. On November 9, the EUR/USD pair reached the level of 1.1604. If the pair breaks above 1.1600, it may test the level of 1.1650.

Currently, the greenback is trading slightly below its annual high. Now, there are rumors that Biden is considering the appointment of a new chairman of the Federal Reserve. This is also bearish for the US dollar. On November 4, the Biden administration discussed the possible appointment of Leil Brainard, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, to this post. If so, the US dollar may drop significantly. According to experts, Brainard is likely to stick to an extremely cautious approach to monetary policy tightening.

This week, market participants are awaiting the release of the US inflation report for October on Wednesday. Analysts predict a rise in inflation to 5.8% from 5.4%. If so, the US dollar may regain ground. Now, the US dollar has slightly declined amid inflation expectations. Yet, it may recoup its losses after the publication of inflation data.

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US stock indices finished trading lower

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on the basis of trading on Tuesday fell by 112.24 points (0.31%) and amounted to 36319.98 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 fell by 16.45 points (0.35%) - to 4685.25 points.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 95.81 points (0.6%) to 15886.54 points.

Some investors saw the market pullback as a little respite after several days of continuous gains. Strong company reports for the third quarter support the stock market, despite continued investor concerns about rising inflation and supply chain problems.

Statistics released on Tuesday showed a slight increase in the rate of rise in producer prices in October compared to the previous month - to 0.6% from 0.5% in September. The acceleration in growth was largely due to the rise in gasoline prices (6.7%). On an annualized basis, US producer prices jumped at a record 8.6%, as in the previous month.

In addition, the National Federation of Independent Business reported that the small business optimism indicator dropped 0.8 percentage points in October, to 98.2 points, the lowest since March.

General Electric Co. rose 2.7% by the end of trading on Tuesday. The American concern announced that it will split operations into three independent public companies.

Tesla Inc. lost almost 12% in price.

The price of securities of the developer of the online video game platform Roblox Corp. soared by 42%.

Car rental Hertz Global Holdings Inc. plunged 9.8% on its Nasdaq debut.

Boeing shares fell 0.9%.

Cruise operator Royal Caribbean's share price fell 2.5% on news of the imminent resignation of the company's chief executive Richard Fane, who has held the post since 1988.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 11, 2021

The euro fell by 113 points yesterday, which confirmed the variant with the formation of convergence before, as expected, a reversal into medium-term growth. The target of the movement is the 1.1448 level - the high on March 17, 2019. The price may move below the level, for example, to 1.1420, this is the level of the peaks of June 2020 and June 2019.

Of course, the strengthening of the dollar across the market was associated with a strong increase in the CPI in October estimates to 6.2% (forecast 5.8%), but the Federal Reserve needs to get data on the real sector to change its sentiment, and such data as retail sales, growth industrial production, the volume of civil construction will be next week. Investors also need this data, and therefore, after yesterday's rally, they can take a break.

On the four-hour scale, the price settled under the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator has already deeply entered the downtrend zone, so we expect the decline to slow down. We are waiting for the formation of technical reversal signs.

Forecast for GBP/USD on November 11, 2021

The British pound fell by one and a half figures yesterday, reaching the Fibonacci level of 123.6% with the formation of convergence with the Marlin Oscillator. But more precisely, the convergence has not yet formed, only the conditions of its probable formation have been fulfilled, in order to return the price to the initial levels in the area of the Fibonacci level of 100.0%. The price may still continue to decline and reach the next level of 138.2% at the price of 1.3313.

On the four-hour chart, the convergence of the price with the oscillator is also ready to form. This circumstance tilts the probability of a price reversal up from approximately current levels to 60%. But you need to wait at least a day for the market to cool down and give clearer indications of its intentions.

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US stock indices finished trading with multidirectional dynamics

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158.71 points (0.44%) to 35921.23 points. Standard & Poor's 500 rose by 2.56 points (0.06%), that is, to 4649.27 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 81.58 points (0.52%) and amounted to 15704.28 points.

Tesla Inc. Stock Quote decreased by 0.4%. Tesla CEO Elon Musk this week sold shares in the company for a total of about $ 5 billion. On Monday, he exercised options to buy more than 2 million Tesla shares, which he received as compensation, for a total of $ 2.5 billion. options amounted to about $ 13.4 million.

Lordstown Motors Corp. rose 23.2% after rising more than 20% in additional trading on Wednesday. The electric car maker has struck a deal to sell its plant to Foxconn for $ 230 million.

Twitter Inc. Papers decreased by 0.7%. The company is creating a team that will develop a strategy for the future use of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general within the social network.

Walt Disney Co. decreased by 7.1%. The world's largest entertainment and media company posted weaker-than-expected earnings and revenues in its fiscal fourth quarter and saw a significant slowdown in subscriber growth for its Disney + streaming service.

Beyond Meat shares fell 13.3%. The American manufacturer of plant-based meat substitutes increased its net loss 2.8 times, while its revenue was worse than forecast.

Yesterday, traders' attention was focused on the statistics published the day before, which indicated a significant acceleration of inflation in the US last month.

According to the Department of Labor, consumer prices in the United States in October rose by 6.2% compared with the same month last year - the highest rate in almost 31 years (since November 1990). A month earlier, inflation in the US was 5.4%, and experts expected it to accelerate in October to 5.8%.

The jump in energy prices in the United States last month amounted to 30% in annual terms, gasoline rose in price by 49.6%. The rate of growth in the cost of food, which amounted to 5.3%, was the highest since January 2009.

According to Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, inflation remains steadily high, surprising many who expected prices to return to normal more quickly. He also added that it is impossible to close the $ 20 trillion economy and not feel obstacles in the process of opening it, but we hope that supply chain problems will be resolved in the coming months, and inflation will stabilize.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD on November 15, 2021

Last week's decline of the EUR/USD pair was a strong impulse that exceeded the limits of the average move. This suggests that there is an 80% probability of continuing the downward impulse.

The current growth of this instrument should be used to find favorable prices to sell the instrument. An important pullback level is the 1.1494 mark. The probability to rise to this mark is 90%. This indicates that the search for a sell pattern should begin only after returning to this level. The determining resistance is the Weekly Control Zone of 1/2 1.1529-1.1521.

All of the above makes the area of 1.1494-1.1529 a supply zone. The upward movement of the EUR/USD pair to these levels will give us an opportunity to sell the instrument at favorable prices.

It is not profitable to make corrective purchases since the probability of updating the monthly low is above 80%. Any resistance level can be decisive. A bearish impulse is a strong movement that will take 3 to 5 days to break.

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 15, 2021

The yen looks in the direction of strengthening again. Last Friday, the yen traded in the range of 53 points, and did not dare to go above the signal level of 114.46, which opens the way for the price to the target range of 115.80-116.15.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reverses downward from its own zero line. This means that the price rally in the previous two days was a correction from the decline since October 20th. If the price moves below the support of the price channel at 113.15, it will confirm the price's intention to move further down. The bears' first target at 112.30 is the MACD line.

On the four-hour chart, the price is declining, but is above the indicator lines. A decline in the price under the MACD line, below the level of 113.44, will be the first serious sign of a price choice in a downward direction.

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USDCAD bullish bounce | 16th Nov 2021

On the H4, with price moving above our ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will bounce from 1st support at 1.24935 in line with the graphical swing overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance at 1.26028 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and possibly to 2nd resistance at 1.27083 in line with our horizontal overlap resistance and 100% Fibonacci projection level. Alternatively, we may see price break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 1.24100 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal swing low support.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.24935
Reason for Entry:
graphical swing overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 1.26028
Reason for Take Profit:
horizontal overlap resistance
Stop Loss: 1.24100
Reason for Stop Loss:
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal swing low support

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 17, 2021

It looks like the euro is being pulled into a swamp. The euro continued its decline on Tuesday, started on the 10th and almost reached the target level of 1.1300. The potential for convergence reversal formation has dried up. Now two scenarios are possible: the price settles below the level of 1.1300 and continues to decline to 1.1170, or (due to the lack of convergence) makes a sharp return above the level of 1.1448 and lies in the mid-term sideways, about two weeks, in the range 1.1448-1.1572 with false exits in both sides during this lateral movement.

There is not a very strong sign of a reversal on the four-hour time scale - the sideways movement of the Marlin Oscillator. But, of course, this same technical element can turn into consolidation before further, albeit not very deep, decline.

Now, if we hope for a price reversal, we should wait for it to break above the MACD indicator line, above the level of 1.1448. Further growth, as already mentioned, is expected to be difficult, with lateral preliminary movement, with false signals.

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US shares lower at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.58%

At the close in New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones lost 0.58%, the S&P 500 lost 0.26% and the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.33%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Apple Inc, which rose in price by 2.49 points (1.65%), to close at 153.49. Home Depot Inc rose 0.64% or 2.52 points to end trades at 394.85. Johnson & Johnson rose 0.38% or 0.61 points to close at 163.28.

The biggest losers were Visa Inc Class A, which fell 4.70% or 10.12 points to end the session at 205.06. Goldman Sachs Group Inc gained 2.86% or 11.54 points to end at 391.55, while Merck & Company Inc was down 1.80% or 1.51 points to close at around 82.60.

TJX Companies Inc, which gained 5.83% to 73.55, gained 3.25% to close at 1.089.01, and also General Motors Company shares rose 3.19% to end the session at 64.61.

The biggest losers were TechnipFMC PLC, which fell 7.31% to close at 6.720. APA Corporation shed 6.62% to end the session at 27.66. HollyFrontier Corporation was down 6.12% to 32.54.

The growth leaders among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 39.29% to 1.950, Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 30.96%, to close at 18.400, and Where Food Comes From Inc, which added 29.26% to end at 14.60.

The biggest losers were StoneCo Ltd, which fell 34.62% to close at 20.70. Odonate Therapeutics shed 29.39% to end the session at 2.330. Bit Brother Ltd was down 28.93% to 1.2650.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell (2,227) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,026), while the quotations of 138 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2637 companies fell in price, 1107 rose, and 182 remained at the level of the previous close.

General Motors Company shares rose to an all-time high, gaining 3.19%, 2.00 points, to close at 64.61. Home Depot Inc rose to an all-time high, rising 0.64%, 2.52 points to trade at 394.85. StoneCo Ltd fell to a 52-week low, down 34.62%, 10.96 points to end at 20.70. Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals Inc rose to a 52-week high, rising 30.96%, 4.350 points to trade at 18,400. Odonate Therapeutics fell to historic lows, down 29.39%, 0.970 points to trade at 2.330.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, was up 4.52% to trade at 17.11.

Gold Futures for December delivery was up 0.80% or 14.85 to $ 1,868.95 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery fell 3.09%, or 2.46, to $ 77.28 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for January delivery fell 2.80% or 2.31 to trade at $ 80.12 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD was up 0.02% to hit 1.1321, while USD / JPY was down 0.61% to hit 114.12.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.12% at 95.793.

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US stocks multi-directional at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.17%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones lost 0.17%, the S&P 500 gained 0.38% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.45%.

The leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones index at the end of today's trading were shares of Apple Inc., which rose in price by 4.38 points (2.85%), to close at 157.87. Home Depot Inc rose 2.79% or 11.00 points to end at 405.85. Walmart Inc rose 0.86% or 1.22 points to close at 143.16.

The biggest losers were Cisco Systems Inc, which fell 5.51% or 3.13 points to end the session at 53.63. American Express Company was up 1.89% or 3.40 points to end at 176.21 and 3M Company was down 1.70% or 3.09 points to 178. 77.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index at the end of today's trading were shares of Macy's Inc, which rose in price by 21.17% to 37.37, Kohls Corp, which gained 10.62%, to close at 62.48, and shares NVIDIA Corporation rose 8.25% to end 316.75.

The biggest losers were Helmerich and Payne Inc, which fell 16.48% to close at 26.16. Nektar Therapeutics shares lost 8.48% to 11.76 in the day.

The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Longeveron LLC, which rose 135.27% to 6.870, Dicerna Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 78.71%, to close at 38.03, as well as Virtuoso Acquisition Corp, which were up 43.95% to end at 14.510.

The biggest losers were Amtech Systems Inc, which fell 26.61% to close at 11,200. Femasys Inc shed 20.53% to end the session at 5.11. Gracell Biotechnologies Inc. decreased in price by 22.12% to the level of 8.98.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell (2,145) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,111), while the quotations of 123 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2610 companies fell in price, 1133 rose, and 179 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, was up 2.81% to hit 17.59.

Gold Futures for December delivery was down 0.45% or 8.45 to $ 1,861.75 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery rose 0.99%, or 0.77, to $ 78.32 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for January delivery rose 1.03% or 0.83 to trade at $ 81.11 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was up 0.46% to hit 1.1371, while the USD / JPY was up 0.15% to hit 114.25.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.30% at 95.537.

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European equities tumble on news of Austrian lockdown

Earlier this week, Austria became the first European country to impose travel restrictions on people who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19. The republic has the lowest level of vaccination in the region, that is, 65%.

In addition, in Germany this week the record for the number of cases per day was broken - more than 65 thousand people. The country's health minister Jens Spahn did not rule out the possibility of introducing a nationwide lockdown. According to Spahn, the situation is now even more serious than it was a week ago.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 0.3% and amounted to 486.08 points.

The German DAX dropped 0.3%, the French CAC 40 - 0.4%, the British FTSE 100 - 0.5%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX lost 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively.

The European Central Bank (ECB) should not rush to tighten monetary policy, even in the face of "unwanted and painful" inflation, said ECB President Christine Lagarde. The main factors driving inflation - supply chain problems and rising energy prices - will ease over the medium term, she said.

Retail sales in the UK in October rose from the previous month for the first time in six months - by 0.8%, but decreased by 1.3% compared to October last year, according to the National Statistical Office (ONS) of the country.

At the same time, the consumer confidence index in the country in November rose by three points compared to the previous month and amounted to minus 14 points, according to data from GfK NOP Ltd., which calculates this indicator. The indicator increased for the first time in four months.

Producer prices in Germany in October increased by 18.4% compared to the same month last year, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis). Growth was at its highest since November 1951.

British home improvement chain Kingfisher was down 4.4%. The company in the third quarter of this year reduced its revenue by 2.4%. However, the report marks a strong start to the fourth quarter.

Irish low-cost airline Ryanair Holdings lost 2.3%. The carrier is set to delist its shares from the London Stock Exchange on 20 December. Ryanair noted that the company's stock trading volume on the LSE does not justify the cost of maintaining the listing.

The banking sector lost the most at the end of trading: shares of Raiffeisen Bank International AG fell by almost 7%, Deutsche Bank AG - by 5%, Erste Group Bank AG - by 5.2%, UniCredit S.p.A. - by 4.5%.

The shares of the IT company Amadeus IT Group S.A. were also in the red. (-4.8%) and Wizz Air Holdings PLC (-4.6%).

The growth leaders in the Stoxx 600 were shares of the British online grocery chain Ocado Group (+ 6.8%), the Polish manufacturer of electronic check-in terminals InPost (+ 7.4%), the French luxury goods manufacturer Hermes International (+ 5.2% ), delivery service operators Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (+ 6.3%) and Deliveroo PLC (+ 4.4%).

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European equity markets finished trading without a single dynamic

Traders have been closely monitoring the change in the number of cases in Europe after Austria last week decided to introduce a lockdown. German authorities have begun talking about the possibility of taking a similar measure due to record rates of morbidity per day. However, in Germany, so far, restrictions have been introduced only for those who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19. The French authorities over the weekend announced signs of a very rapid spread of the next, fifth wave of coronavirus infection.

The spotlight on Monday was the news that US President Joe Biden has nominated the current head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell for a second term in this post. This was announced by the White House. At the same time, Leil Brainard, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, was nominated for the post of his deputy. "I have full confidence that Chairman Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs after having been" tested by fire "over the past 20 months, Biden said in a statement.

Powell's four-year term as head of the Fed expires in February 2022. The Senate vote is expected to proceed smoothly, with significant Republican support, and he will be confirmed in office before the current term expires, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 by the close of trading lost 0.13% and amounted to 485.46 points.

The German DAX fell 0.27%, the French CAC 40 - 0.1%. Britain's FTSE 100 climbed 0.4%, Italy's FTSE MIB rose 0.2%, and Spain's IBEX climbed 0.8%.

Italy's largest telephony operator Telecom Italia rose 30.3%, supported by news that US investment firm KKR & Co. wants to buy Telecom Italia for 10.8 billion euros.

The value of the world leader in wealth management UBS Group AG increased by 0.9%. The company's board of directors has nominated former Morgan Stanley president Colm Kelleher for the chairmanship.

German bank Deutsche Bank AG fell 0.4%. The bank has nominated the ex-head of the Dutch insurance company Aegon NV Alexander Winandts to the post of chairman of the supervisory board.

Hochschild Mining Plc shares plunged 27.2% on reports that Peruvian authorities will ban new mining and exploration operations in the region where the company's two mines are located, due to environmental concerns.

Capitalization of the Swedish telecommunications equipment manufacturer Ericsson AB decreased by 5.2%. The company will buy US cloud service provider Vonage Holdings Corp. for $ 6.2 billion

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Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on November 24

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but the increase was limited because the MACD line was far from zero. But when a signal to sell appeared, the pair rose even though the MACD line was already in the overbought area. This continued for the rest of the day. The upward movement was around 15 pips.

Euro rallied yesterday, thanks to better-than-anticipated reports on manufacturing and service PMI in the Euro area. Meanwhile, the statements of ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos were ignored even though he mentioned the need for stricter inflation control.

The observed bullish momentum may continue today if the data on business conditions, assessments of the current situation and economic expectations come out stronger than the forecasts. ECB board member Fabio Panetta will also speak, and it could push euro higher if he mentions inflationary pressures

In the afternoon, US will release a report on Q3 GDP, which could raise dollar demand if the figure is revised for the better. Data on jobless claims, income and expenses will also be published, followed by the minutes of the recent Fed meeting. If the protocol does not indicate aggressive intentions of the committee members, demand for dollar will decline.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1253 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1299. Demand will increase if the Euro area reports very strong economic statistics.

Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1227, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1253 and 1.1299.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1227 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1185. Demand will decline if the situation with COVID-19 escalates. Weak data from Germany and strong statistics from US will also provoke a decrease in EUR / USD.

Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1283, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1255 and 1.1216.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 26, 2021

Yesterday, the dollar against the yen could not withstand the pressure from technical factors and this morning fell to the signal level of 114.71 (October 20 high). After the price drops below this level, the USD/JPY pair may continue to move to the magnetic point at 113.20 - to the point of intersection of the price channel line with the MACD line. The price can overcome the target, since below it is the second target level of 112.74, which is desirable for the bulls to work out if they intend to advance further - to create a false downward movement.

To complete the bearish picture, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator does not reach the negative area. Perhaps this will happen when the price goes below the signal level.

The price almost touched the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Settling below it, as well as below the level of 114.71, will become a condition for further price movement to the downside. The Marlin Oscillator is already in the negative zone.

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 26, 2021

The euro has finally started to form a slight reversal from the target level of 1.1170. The miniature double bottom figure at the Marlin Oscillator on the daily scale has worked.

We consider the observed growth so far as an upward movement within the framework of the sideways movement of 1.1170-1.1300. The range, of course, can be extended, the other upper boundary is the 1.1375 level - the peak on November 18. In the next two weeks, this level may be reached by the MACD indicator line. Then either the downward trend will resume, or the price will break above the MACD line and outline a mid-term growth.

On the chart of the four-hour scale, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator has entered the positive area. The convergence is fully formed, but it remains to wait for the price to break above the MACD line, above 1.1250. This moment will confirm that the price is in a sideways trend.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 29, 2021

The euro corrected upward by 120 points on Thursday and Friday last week, turning around without reaching the target level of 1.1170. Growth may continue to 1.1375 - the highs on November 18 or slightly higher towards the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator has grown sharply, now it can be in free roaming for some time, which will affect the price in a wide-range sideways movement. So far, this range is defined by the levels 1.1170-1.1375.

On the four-hour scale chart, the price managed to get above both indicator lines - above the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator has grown up high, but it is not yet in the overbought zone, so the price has the prospect of reaching the level of 1.1375. The recovery of the bearish trend will occur when the price moves below the MACD line, below 1.1235. But taking into account the situation on the daily scale, there is a significant likelihood of a false price drift under the MACD line, and then, after the target level of 1.1170 has been worked out, the price may again turn into corrective growth.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak tonight at a social event in New York, tomorrow in the Senate before the Banking Committee, and the day after tomorrow in the House of Representatives. Also tomorrow we will have John Williams, Richard Clarida and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. It may very well be that the risks associated with the emergence of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus will be affected, and then the maturing expectations of 2 or even 3 rate hikes next year will disappear, and the euro will begin to recover its lost positions.

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 29, 2021

As a result of Friday's collapse in the stock markets (Euro Stoxx 50 - 4.74%, S&P 500 -2.27%), the yen strengthened against the dollar by 1.72% (197 points). The first bearish target was reached, the price slowed down on the embedded price channel line of the weekly timeframe. Now, according to the main scenario, the price will have to overcome the support of the MACD indicator line at 113.06, after which the 110.75 target will open in front of it - the lower line of the price channel. The Marlin Oscillator has forcefully entered the territory of the downward trend, divergence with the price is formed and confirmed. We look forward to further price reductions.

On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below both indicator lines - below the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator is already leaving the oversold zone, which tells us about the impending price correction before its further decline. The limit of such a correction is seen as the Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 114.30, which is the November 12 high (checkmark).

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 30, 2021

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair once again tested the strength of the embedded line of the price channel of the higher timeframe, it is shown in green on the chart. Now this support was strengthened by the MACD indicator line - the price rebound to the upside turned out to be qualitative. The Marlin Oscillator supports the reversal, but still remains in the negative area.

However, the reversal should be confirmed. A visually strong resistance level is the upper border of the consolidation on October 26-November 4 at 114.31. It is also desirable to receive confirmation from the Marlin Oscillator, which needs to move into the zone of positive values.

On the chart of the four-hour scale, the bulls' shortcomings, or rather the inadequacy of the work done by them, is seen more clearly. The price is still far below the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is moving up slowly and is still in the negative area. Therefore, the likelihood of another attack on support at 113.13 remains high. We are waiting for the development of further events, the formation of any technical signals or the strengthening of the existing prerequisites.

Forecast for AUD/USD on November 30, 2021

The Australian dollar gained 23 points on Monday, the trading range stayed within the 0.7107-07171 levels. Overcoming any of these levels may mean a continuation of the short-term movement: downward to the 0.7065 target (June 2020 high), ascending to the target of 0.7227. The Marlin Oscillator is showing an upward reversal, but it looks weak.

On the four-hour scale, the price approaches the magnetic point - to the point where the target level of 0.7171 coincides with the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines. The Marlin Oscillator already anticipates this event with a transition to a positive area, entering a zone of a growing trend.

So consolidating above 0.7171 opens the target at 0.7227. This is the main option. If the price moves below the level of 0.7107, an alternative variant will open with a movement to 0.7065.

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Technical analysis recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on December 1, 2021


The bears descended to the area of the final border of the monthly Ichimoku gold cross (1.1290) last month. It was not possible to break through the level, the closing of the month was indicated by a long lower shadow of the monthly candle. Therefore, the bulls now have opportunities to develop the rebound from the encountered support. In this situation, it will be possible to make further plans and consider new upward prospects after the formation of a rebound from 1.1290 and consolidation above the important resistance zone of 1.1439 - 1.1492, where several of the strongest levels in the higher timeframes combined (monthly levels + weekly short-term trend + closing levels of the daily Ichimoku cross).

Yesterday, the nearest resistance along the way was tested – the daily Fibo Kijun (1.1379). Alternatively, the breakdown of the monthly support at 1.1290 and the update of the November low (1.1186), will allow us to consider continuing the decline and strengthening the bearish mood. In this case, the closest downward pivot point will be the weekly target for the breakdown of the cloud (1.0806 - 1.0960).

The bulls in the smaller timeframes limited themselves yesterday to testing the final border of the classic pivot levels and failed to continue the rise further. At the moment, they still have the advantage. Today, their intraday pivot points are set at 1.1402 - 1.1467 - 1.1550 (classic pivot levels). The key support levels, which are now located at 1.1319 (central Pivot level) and 1.1267 (weekly long-term trend), allow the bulls to defend their interests despite the long-term trading in the correction zone.

A consolidation below will change the current balance of power and bring back the relevance of bearish targets, such as the minimum extremum (1.1186) and the support of the classic pivot levels (1.1254 - 1.1171 - 1.1106).


The bears tried to reach the monthly support (1.3164) at the end of the previous month but failed to test the level or close the month next to it. Nevertheless, November indicated the nearest bearish plans – entering the bearish zone relative to the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.3248) and breaking through the monthly support (1.3164).

As for the bulls, it is important for them to keep their position above the current support and attraction zone 1.3248 (lower border of the weekly cloud) - 1.3164 (monthly Fibo Kijun), regain support for the daily short-term trend (1.3351), and also strive to restore their positions to weekly levels (1.3516-76), eliminate the daily dead cross (1.3503 - 1.3586) and rise to the daily Ichimoku cloud.

Bullish traders in the smaller intervals failed to consolidate above the key levels and reverse the moving average yesterday, which resulted in the continuing struggle for key levels. Today's key levels are at 1.3286 (central pivot level) and 1.3322 (weekly long-term trend). A movement below the levels gives preference to the bears. Their pivot points are currently set at 1.3203 - 1.3109 - 1.3026 (support for the classic pivot levels). It is worth noting that the aforementioned levels give preference to the bulls. Their upward targets are at 1.3380 - 1.3463 - 1.3557 (resistance levels of the classic pivot levels).

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Is the pound sterling the restless hostage of Omicron?

The British currency has temporarily gone into the shadow of the aggressive US dollar and the volatile euro. At the same time, the pound is trying to assert itself, while resisting pressure from the new mutation of the Omicron coronavirus.

Before Omicron's appearance on the scene, the key drivers of the global market were traders' expectations about the early curtailment of incentives and a rise in rates. These sentiments have now intensified as the new strain has made its own adjustments. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, announced his readiness to accelerate these processes amid off-scale inflation and general instability. He believes that the new COVID-19 mutation provokes prolonged inflationary pressure.

Earlier, the Fed's head agreed that the strongest growth in consumer prices was recorded in the United States, which could push the national economy into the pit of stagflation. Against the background of extremely high inflation in the US, the yield spread between ten-year and two-year Treasury bonds has sharply declined. This indicator turned out to be at a minimum over the past 10 months, which indicates a further downward trend in the GBP/USD pair.

In the current situation, the British currency is experiencing serious overloads. Some restlessness of the pound, bordering on confusion, destabilizes the market. According to analysts, it risks becoming a hostage of Omicron. Despite the current difficulties, the pound is trying to cope with the situation.

The danger of a new strain of coronavirus for the British economy was noted by one of the representatives of the Bank of England. According to the official, Omicron has called into question the further growth of consumer confidence in the country. Economists fear that the new COVID-19 mutation will provoke a drop in demand for consumer services and logistics problems. At the same time, experts believe that Omicron should not affect the Bank of England's plans for a possible tightening of the PEPP.

On Wednesday, global markets and risky assets remained stable. The British currency added 0.17%, reaching the level of 1.3318. However, the triumph was temporary: the pound remained near a one-year low against the US dollar, and then sharply fell to 1.3195. The reason for this fall was the market's doubts about the Bank of England's early interest rate hike. On Thursday morning, the GBP/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.3291. There is currently no clear trend in the pair, and the support level of 1.3263 restrains the bears' dominance.

Many market participants are quite optimistic. Investors believe that the new strain of coronavirus will not affect the further recovery of the global economy. The pound is trying to consolidate in this trend and strengthen its current positions. According to UOB Group analysts, the pound may decline to 1.3260 in the coming weeks, although this scenario is unlikely.

"A further drawdown of the GBP is possible, but a strong support level near 1.3195 will be a tough nut to crack," the UOB Group believes. According to analysts, the pound is not in danger of serious weakening in the short term.

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Is USD dependent on stock market?

The US dollar is again undergoing a period of volatility, with rare periods of stability, as USD traders await the US labor market report.

Early on Friday, December 3, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1289, below the previous closing price of 1.1299. The US currency edged up slightly before the release of non-farm payrolls, fuelled by concerns over the new Omicron strain, which have now eased.

As markets remain relatively calm, the US dollar has strengthened its position in the run-up to the non-farm payroll release. Strong US labor market data would clear the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates early, analysts say.

Recently, the US dollar has been moving largely under the influence of key interest rate changes, with safe-haven investment demand affecting it only negligibly. The American currency rate has been highly dependent on the global stock market - a new norm, according to some experts.

At this moment, the USD cash flow is determined by equity volatility, as well as risk hedging related to it. Earlier, the inverse correlation was in effect. The Fed's key interest rate is crucial for the market. The yield of US 2-year treasury bonds, which is closely connected with the Deutsche Bank volatility index, is used to determine the future rate. Amid spiraling inflation, investors expect an early rate hike, which would push up the bond yield and the US dollar.

The US non-farm payrolls are in focus at the end of the week. The unemployment rate is expected to go down to 4.5%, with non-farm employment projected to increase by 550,000. The amount of jobless claims fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began.

Strong US labor market data are unlikely to propel the dollar upward, but it could limit the pessimistic sentiment over the spread of Omicron variant, and allow the Fed to go through with the plan to wind down QE and hike the rates in 2022.

While the markets remain somewhat volatile, with strong NFP expectations stabilizing it slightly, the greenback is likely to maintain upside potential. Satisfactory payroll data and the possibility of an earlier end of QE would push the dollar up.

According to an outlook by Goldman Sachs, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points three times - in June, September, and December, followed by further monetary tightening. Downside risks for the global economy caused by Omicron would boost demand for USD as a safe-haven, giving it support, Goldman Sachs analysts note.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on December 6, 2021

Over the last trading day, on Friday, the technical picture for the euro has slightly shifted towards growth. The daily rally was small, only 16 points, but the Marlin Oscillator started advancing, indicating an intention to exit the zone of negative values. This advanced growth is shown in the daily chart with gray rectangles.

The probability of price growth, that is, overcoming the signal level of 1.1375 (November 18 high), increases to 60%. Then the 1.1448 target will open. Overcoming it and, accordingly, the MACD line, will become an almost confirmed sign of further medium-term growth.

On the four-hour chart, since the opening of the session, the price has gone down, which still creates the risk of a deeper decline. This risk is realized when the price moves below the MACD indicator line, below 1.1254, the target will open at 1.1170. Continued growth is likely to resume with the price breaking Friday's high of 1.1334.

Forecast for USD/JPY on December 6, 2021

Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair tried to break above the resistance of the MACD indicator line and the daily price channel line (green) for the third time in three days. It failed once again and ended the day with a decline of 29 points.

Now we see that with the support of the declining Marlin Oscillator in the negative zone, the price is trying to overcome the signal support at 112.54. If this happens, then with the greatest probability, the price will go further down to the target of 110.77 - to the lower embedded line of the price channel.

The technical picture is more complex on the H4 chart. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the lower border of its own channel, and the line itself is already in the positive area. This is a sign of price growth towards overcoming resistance at 113.20, which corresponds to the MACD line on the daily chart. This will be another exit above this line, and it may no longer be false - the 114.05 target level will be overcome.

A decline below 112.54 will automatically mean that the oscillator will exit from its ascending channel to the downside. We are waiting for the development of events.

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